[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:00.50,0:00:04.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,好的，让我们来看一下实际中的风险管理吧。
Dialogue: 0,0:00:04.46,0:00:08.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,而我将从一些基本概念开始阐述
Dialogue: 0,0:00:08.48,0:00:14.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,然后再逐渐聚焦在两个在风险分析中最为困难的领域
Dialogue: 0,0:00:14.24,0:00:19.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我估计，如果问你如何去定义“风险”这个词
Dialogue: 0,0:00:19.17,0:00:22.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,你将会有很多不同的想法去定义它
Dialogue: 0,0:00:22.97,0:00:26.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我们可能并没有一个准确的定义让我们能够解释其
Dialogue: 0,0:00:26.48,0:00:30.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,但是当我们听到“风险”这个词的时候，我们都会在头脑中得到一些画面
Dialogue: 0,0:00:30.27,0:00:33.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,这就是我们如何思考的，并且可能你也会像这样
Dialogue: 0,0:00:34.23,0:00:38.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,或许你感到就好像这位小兄弟一样，面对一些艰难的挑战
Dialogue: 0,0:00:38.53,0:00:41.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,然后你便知道该把....
Dialogue: 0,0:00:42.07,0:00:43.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,又或许你感到像这个家伙一样
Dialogue: 0,0:00:44.02,0:00:46.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,这是真实的职业在北朝鲜
Dialogue: 0,0:00:47.77,0:00:51.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,并且他的工作就是举起靶子让其他人来射击
Dialogue: 0,0:00:51.50,0:00:53.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,有时候，项目管理同样有“靶子”在这儿
Dialogue: 0,0:00:54.29,0:00:56.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我们感觉到每个人都在向我们的工作射击
Dialogue: 0,0:00:57.76,0:01:01.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,又或许你恰好知道有一些棘手的事情等待着你去做
Dialogue: 0,0:01:02.47,0:01:05.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,并且当你考虑“风险”这个词时，那可能就是你所想的
Dialogue: 0,0:01:06.36,0:01:09.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,但这只有一部分正确了，并不是完全正确
Dialogue: 0,0:01:10.19,0:01:13.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,风险并不是指不确定
Dialogue: 0,0:01:14.22,0:01:16.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,风险和不确定有所关联，但并不相同
Dialogue: 0,0:01:17.67,0:01:23.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,因此，所有风险都是不确定的，但是并不是说不确定的就都是风险
Dialogue: 0,0:01:24.65,0:01:27.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,如果你有一个风险登记表或一个风险清单
Dialogue: 0,0:01:27.94,0:01:31.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,其上不会有几百万个项目，或者不应该有
Dialogue: 0,0:01:31.96,0:01:34.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,甚至其可能连几千都不到
Dialogue: 0,0:01:34.51,0:01:35.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,更可能是更小的数字
Dialogue: 0,0:01:36.71,0:01:40.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,尽管世界上有几百万不确定的事情
Dialogue: 0,0:01:40.40,0:01:44.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,那么，我们该怎样定义哪一些不确定的事情可以被称作”风险“呢？
Dialogue: 0,0:01:44.68,0:01:47.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,将这些风险写下来并登记在我们的风险登记表上
Dialogue: 0,0:01:47.55,0:01:50.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,然后，再决定为这些”风险“做些什么
Dialogue: 0,0:01:50.48,0:01:56.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:56.94,0:01:58.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,你怎么知道的？
Dialogue: 0,0:01:58.80,0:02:02.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我认为区分风险和不确定非常简单
Dialogue: 0,0:02:03.20,0:02:05.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,并且只需要用三个词
Dialogue: 0,0:02:05.42,0:02:10.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,那就是，”风险是强关联的不确定性“
Dialogue: 0,0:02:11.50,0:02:14.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,因为世界上大多数不确定并不重要
Dialogue: 0,0:02:15.56,0:02:19.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我们并不关心如果伦敦明天下午是否下雨
Dialogue: 0,0:02:19.40,0:02:23.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,它可能下，也可能不下。那没有关联，那并不重要
Dialogue: 0,0:02:24.50,0:02:26.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我们并不关心2020年如果汇率在俄罗斯卢布和中国人民币之间
Dialogue: 0,0:02:26.95,0:02:30.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,的金融汇率会如何
Dialogue: 0,0:02:30.70,0:02:32.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,因为那对我们并不重要
Dialogue: 0,0:02:32.89,0:02:35.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,但是有一些事情在我们的工作中，
Dialogue: 0,0:02:35.43,0:02:37.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,在我们的家庭中，
Dialogue: 0,0:02:37.27,0:02:38.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,在我们的国家中，
Dialogue: 0,0:02:38.98,0:02:41.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,这些不确定的事情则与我们有所关联
Dialogue: 0,0:02:42.20,0:02:45.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,如果某个事件是一个强关联的不确定，那它就是风险
Dialogue: 0,0:02:46.19,0:02:49.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,因而，这引出另一个问题，怎么确定是否强关联呢？
Dialogue: 0,0:02:50.75,0:02:53.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,在你的工作中，哪些事情是强关联的呢？
Dialogue: 0,0:02:54.08,0:02:57.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:58.53,0:03:02.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:02.99,0:03:05.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:06.00,0:03:08.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:08.36,0:03:11.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:11.44,0:03:13.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:13.80,0:03:17.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:18.45,0:03:21.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:21.39,0:03:23.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:24.14,0:03:28.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:28.15,0:03:32.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:32.21,0:03:35.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:35.37,0:03:38.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:38.60,0:03:40.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:40.87,0:03:44.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:44.70,0:03:48.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:49.18,0:03:52.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:52.11,0:03:55.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:55.29,0:03:59.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:59.72,0:04:02.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:03.08,0:04:06.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:06.77,0:04:08.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:08.44,0:04:11.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:13.30,0:04:15.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:16.16,0:04:18.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:18.34,0:04:19.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:19.98,0:04:22.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:22.13,0:04:24.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:24.56,0:04:27.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:27.08,0:04:30.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:30.62,0:04:33.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:34.77,0:04:37.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:37.41,0:04:39.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:39.66,0:04:42.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:43.25,0:04:47.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:47.45,0:04:49.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:49.50,0:04:51.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:51.23,0:04:52.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:52.77,0:04:54.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:54.70,0:04:57.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:59.63,0:05:04.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:05.87,0:05:09.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:09.84,0:05:12.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:12.46,0:05:15.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:15.94,0:05:18.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:18.90,0:05:21.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:22.18,0:05:24.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:24.52,0:05:27.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:27.15,0:05:32.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:32.05,0:05:32.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:33.69,0:05:36.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:36.56,0:05:37.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:37.88,0:05:39.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:39.22,0:05:41.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:41.57,0:05:42.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:43.20,0:05:45.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:46.23,0:05:49.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:49.96,0:05:51.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:51.86,0:05:52.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:54.24,0:05:57.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:59.64,0:06:01.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:01.33,0:06:02.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:02.68,0:06:05.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:05.56,0:06:07.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:08.73,0:06:10.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:10.97,0:06:14.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:14.96,0:06:17.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:17.47,0:06:20.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:20.42,0:06:22.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:23.13,0:06:24.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:24.97,0:06:28.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:29.23,0:06:32.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:32.79,0:06:36.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:36.13,0:06:40.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:41.43,0:06:44.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:44.89,0:06:47.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:49.12,0:06:52.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:52.12,0:06:54.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:55.16,0:06:56.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:56.81,0:06:58.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:58.64,0:07:01.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:02.17,0:07:04.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:04.49,0:07:08.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:08.87,0:07:11.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:11.96,0:07:16.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:16.17,0:07:17.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:18.28,0:07:19.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:19.68,0:07:23.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:23.95,0:07:28.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:28.35,0:07:29.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:30.02,0:07:32.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:32.72,0:07:33.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:33.78,0:07:36.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:36.35,0:07:39.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:39.47,0:07:41.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:42.52,0:07:45.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:45.49,0:07:48.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:48.68,0:07:51.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:51.77,0:07:56.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:56.87,0:07:59.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:59.30,0:08:03.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:04.01,0:08:05.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:05.99,0:08:08.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:08.09,0:08:12.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:13.22,0:08:18.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:18.72,0:08:22.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:23.23,0:08:26.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:26.43,0:08:29.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,