1
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好的，让我们来看一下实际中的风险管理吧。

2
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而我将从一些基本概念开始阐述

3
00:00:08,485 --> 00:00:14,015
然后再逐渐聚焦在两个在风险分析中最为困难的领域

4
00:00:14,242 --> 00:00:19,164
我估计，如果问你如何去定义“风险”这个词

5
00:00:19,174 --> 00:00:22,954
你将会有很多不同的想法去定义它

6
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我们可能并没有一个准确的定义让我们能够解释其

7
00:00:26,476 --> 00:00:30,253
但是当我们听到“风险”这个词的时候，我们都会在头脑中得到一些画面

8
00:00:30,274 --> 00:00:33,972
这就是我们如何思考的，并且可能你也会像这样

9
00:00:34,234 --> 00:00:38,534
或许你感到就好像这位小兄弟一样，面对一些艰难的挑战

10
00:00:38,534 --> 00:00:41,791
然后你便知道该把....

11
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又或许你感到像这个家伙一样

12
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这是真实的职业在北朝鲜

13
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并且他的工作就是举起靶子让其他人来射击

14
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有时候，项目管理同样有“靶子”在这儿

15
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我们感觉到每个人都在向我们的工作射击

16
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又或许你恰好知道有一些棘手的事情等待着你去做

17
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并且当你考虑“风险”这个词时，那可能就是你所想的

18
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但这只有一部分正确了，并不是完全正确

19
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风险并不是指不确定

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风险和不确定有所关联，但并不相同

21
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因此，所有风险都是不确定的，但是并不是说不确定的就都是风险

22
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如果你有一个风险登记表或一个风险清单

23
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其上不会有几百万个项目，或者不应该有

24
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甚至其可能连几千都不到

25
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更可能是更小的数字

26
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尽管世界上有几百万不确定的事情

27
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那么，我们该怎样定义哪一些不确定的事情可以被称作”风险“呢？

28
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将这些风险写下来并登记在我们的风险登记表上

29
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然后，再决定为这些”风险“做些什么

30
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31
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你怎么知道的？

32
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我认为区分风险和不确定非常简单

33
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并且只需要用三个词

34
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那就是，”风险是强关联的不确定性“

35
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因为世界上大多数不确定并不重要

36
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我们并不关心如果伦敦明天下午是否下雨

37
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它可能下，也可能不下。那没有关联，那并不重要

38
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我们并不关心2020年如果汇率在俄罗斯卢布和中国人民币之间

39
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的金融汇率会如何

40
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因为那对我们并不重要

41
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但是有一些事情在我们的工作中，

42
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在我们的家庭中，

43
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在我们的国家中，

44
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这些不确定的事情则与我们有所关联

45
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如果某个事件是一个强关联的不确定，那它就是风险

46
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因而，这引出另一个问题，怎么确定是否强关联呢？

47
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在你的工作中，哪些事情是强关联的呢？

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