WEBVTT

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Está bien, echemos un vistazo
gestión de riesgos en la práctica

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Y lo que quiero hacer
es comenzar con algunos conceptos básicos

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luego enfócate en DOS áreas difíciles
en el proceso de riesgo

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Entonces, supongo que si te preguntara
para definir la palabra 'riesgo'

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tendrías alguna idea
de lo que significa

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Puede que no tengamos una
definición que podríamos citar,

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pero todos tenemos algo en nuestra
mente al escuchar la palabra 'riesgo'

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Esto es lo que pensamos
y tal vez pienses en cosas como esta

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Tal vez te sientes así de pequeño,
enfrentando un gran desafío feo

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que sabes que 
sólo va aplastarte.

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Quizás te sientas como este chico.

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Esto es un trabajo 
real en Corea del Norte,

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y su trabajo es sujetar el objetivo
para que otras personas disparen

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A veces los gerentes de 
proyecto tiene el objetivo aquí

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Sentimos que todo el
mundo nos dispara en el trabajo

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O tal vez no sepas que hay algo
feo ahí afuera, esperando atraparte

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Y tal vez eso es lo que pasa
cuando piensas en la palabra 'riesgo'

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Bueno, eso es en parte 
cierto pero no es toda la verdad.

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El riesgo no es lo 
mismo que la duda.

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El riesgo está relacionado con 
la duda, pero son diferentes.

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Todos los riesgos son inciertos, 
mas no todas las dudas son riesgos.

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Si tiene un registro 
o una lista de riesgos,

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no tiene un millón de 
elementos, o no debería.

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Probablemente ni siquiera 
tenga mil elementos en él,

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tienes un número menor.

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Aunque hay millones
de incertidumbres en el mundo.

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Entonces, ¿Cómo decidimos 
qué incertidumbres llamamos "riesgo"?

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Y anótalos en el registro de riesgos.

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y decide hacer algo al respecto.

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Claramente, el 'riesgo' es un subconjunto 
de incertidumbres, pero ¿Qué subconjunto?

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¿Cómo lo sabes?

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Creo que es muy sencillo 
separar riesgo e incertidumbre.

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Y utilizo 3 palabras en inglés,

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"El riesgo es la 
incertidumbre que importa".

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Porque la mayoría de
las incertidumbres no importan.

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No nos importa si va a llover
en Londres mañana por la tarde.

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Podría, puede que no.
Es irrelevante, no importa.

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No nos importa que 
tipo de cambio será

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si está entre el rublo 
ruso y el yen chino en 2020.

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No nos importa.

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Pero hay cosas en nuestros proyectos,

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y cosas de nuestras familias,

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y cosas de nuestro país,

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que son inciertos que nos importan.

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Si lo que importa es una 
incertidumbre, es un riesgo.

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Entonces aquí hay otra 
pregunta, como sabes lo que importa

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En tus proyectos
¿Cuáles son las cosas que importan?

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Lo que importa en tus
proyectos son los objetivos.

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Por eso siempre debemos conectar
la incertidumbre con los objetivos,

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para encontrar los riesgos.

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Y si miramos a algunas
definiciones de riesgo,

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este es el estándar
ISO que mencioné,

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conecta esas palabras 
de manera muy simple;

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El riesgo es el efecto de la 
incertidumbre sobre los objetivos.

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Y podríamos mirar otra 
definición del Reino Unido,

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de nuestra asociación
para la gestión de proyectos,

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dice lo mismo que 
arriesga es un evento incierto

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o un conjunto de 
circunstancias, que es incierto,

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pero importa porque si ocurriera,

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tendrá un efecto
sobre la consecución de objetivos.

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Incertidumbre que importa.

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Entonces deberíamos estar 
mirando en nuestro registro por dos cosas:

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"¿Es incierto?" No queremos
problemas en nuestro registro.

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No queremos problemas en el registro.

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No quiero restricciones ni requisitos.

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Estas cosas son ciertas
lo que queremos son incertidumbres,

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algo que puede pasar
o puede que no suceda.

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Pero la otra pregunta
importante para nuestro registro es

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"¿Importa?"

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¿Qué objetivo sería
afectado si esto sucediera?

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Y cuando queremos
ver qué tan grande es el riesgo,

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Nosotros podemos hacer esas dos preguntas:

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"¿Qué tan incierto es,

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y cuanto importa? "

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Y eso nos dirá
qué tan grande es el riesgo.

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Entonces, esta idea de
incertidumbre que importa

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luego se convierte
en algo que sea útil

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vinculando la
incertidumbre a nuestros objetivos.

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Entonces, tenemos dos
dimensiones de "riesgo",

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una dimensión de incertidumbre y

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una dimensión que
afecta nuestros objetivos

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En proyectos, llamamos
esta probabilidad e impacto.

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Podríamos llamarlos de otras cosas

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hay otros ingleses

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palabras que 
podrían usar, pero

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estos son los
que a menudo más usamos.

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Y me gustaría preguntarte 
con esta imagen del ratón.

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¿Qué efecto le importa al ratón?

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Entonces, en primer lugar, 
se encuentra en una situación incierta.

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Y ha visto algunos riesgos.

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Su objetivo es 
conseguir el queso y sobrevivir.

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Y entonces, uno de los 
riesgos que ha identificado es malo.

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esto podría suceder:
podría morir o resultar herido.

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Y entonces, ha sido un
buen director de proyectos,

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se ha puesto su pequeño 
casco y se está preparando

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para que no le pase a él.
Entonces, él no muere ni resulta herido.

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Muy bien.

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Y hay cosas en nuestros 
proyectos, que si pasaran

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nos mataría o heriría.

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Ellos perderían el tiempo,

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desperdiciar dinero, dañar la reputación,

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destruir el rendimiento,

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tal vez incluso 
lastimar a personas reales.

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Y como directores de proyecto 
tenemos que ver y evitar que sucedan.

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Protegernos a nosotros mismos.

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Evítalos.

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¿Hay otras incertidumbres
que le importa al ratón?

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Bueno, hay …

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el queso.

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Aquí hay una 
incertidumbre que importa mucho.

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"¿Sacaré el queso de la trampa?"

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Podría, o puede que no.

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Y si no obtiene
el queso, ha fallado.

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Entonces tienes dos
incertidumbres a manejar,

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Uno de ellos es malo - 
podría ser asesinado o herido -

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el otro es bueno -
podría conseguir el queso.

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Y lo que tiene que hacer

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es gestionar ambos al mismo tiempo.

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Y como directores de proyecto,
tenemos que hacer lo mismo.

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Y también tenemos 
que hacerlo de la mejor manera posible -

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a veces hay una mejor manera
para hacerlo sin morir o resultar herido.

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En nuestros proyectos, tenemos
que evitar que sucedan cosas malas,

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también tenemos que 
sacar el queso de nuestros proyectos.

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"Entonces, ¿Qué significa
"queso" en tu proyecto? "

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"¿Qué es el 'queso' en su proyecto?"

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"Queso" significa valor.

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"Queso" significa beneficios.

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"Queso" significa productos y 
servicios que se quiere y necesita.

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"Queso" significa 
satisfacción del cliente.

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'Queso' es lo bueno
que tratamos de conseguir

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de nuestros proyectos difíciles.

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Y si no hacemos nada malo -

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no desperdiciamos el tiempo y 
el dinero, no dañamos la reputación -

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pero nosotros no creamos valor,

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nosotros
hemos fallado.

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Si el ratón no murió pero 
no consiguió el queso, fracasó.

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Si creamos beneficios, pero perdemos 
tiempo y dinero, destruimos la reputación,

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hemos fallado.

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Y si el ratón se lleva 
el queso y lo matan,

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ha fallado.

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Entonces tenemos 
que hacer ambas cosas.

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Y cuando pensamos en 
el riesgo y en el impacto,

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hay dos tipos de 
impacto que importan.

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Los malos y los buenos.

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Incertidumbres que
podría dañar el proyecto,

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e incertidumbres que
podría ayudar al proyecto.

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Ambos importan
y necesitan ser manejados.

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Y tenemos otra palabra para esos.

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Entonces, aquí está la definición 
del Project Management Institute (PMI),

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de la Guía PMBok.

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Es lo mismo que 
los otros han visto:

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un evento o condición incierta, 
que si ocurre, afecta un objetivo.

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Pero PMI sabe sobre el ratón. 
PMI sabe sobre el queso y las trampas,

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y ha agregado tres palabras 
a la definición de riesgo aquí.

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