0:00:00.501,0:00:04.428
Está bien, echemos un vistazo[br]gestión de riesgos en la práctica

0:00:04.457,0:00:08.474
Y lo que quiero hacer[br]es comenzar con algunos conceptos básicos

0:00:08.485,0:00:14.015
luego enfócate en DOS áreas difíciles[br]en el proceso de riesgo

0:00:14.242,0:00:19.164
Entonces, supongo que si te preguntara[br]para definir la palabra 'riesgo'

0:00:19.174,0:00:22.954
tendrías alguna idea[br]de lo que significa

0:00:22.967,0:00:26.476
Puede que no tengamos una[br]definición que podríamos citar,

0:00:26.476,0:00:30.253
pero todos tenemos algo en nuestra[br]mente al escuchar la palabra 'riesgo'

0:00:30.274,0:00:33.972
Esto es lo que pensamos[br]y tal vez pienses en cosas como esta

0:00:34.234,0:00:38.534
Tal vez te sientes así de pequeño,[br]enfrentando un gran desafío feo

0:00:38.534,0:00:41.791
que sabes que [br]sólo va aplastarte.

0:00:42.066,0:00:43.766
Quizás te sientas como este chico.

0:00:44.024,0:00:46.489
Esto es un trabajo [br]real en Corea del Norte,

0:00:47.768,0:00:51.367
y su trabajo es sujetar el objetivo[br]para que otras personas disparen

0:00:51.500,0:00:53.979
A veces los gerentes de [br]proyecto tiene el objetivo aquí

0:00:54.292,0:00:56.911
Sentimos que todo el[br]mundo nos dispara en el trabajo

0:00:57.757,0:01:01.987
O tal vez no sepas que hay algo[br]feo ahí afuera, esperando atraparte

0:01:02.470,0:01:05.700
Y tal vez eso es lo que pasa[br]cuando piensas en la palabra 'riesgo'

0:01:06.361,0:01:09.574
Bueno, eso es en parte [br]cierto pero no es toda la verdad.

0:01:10.193,0:01:13.625
El riesgo no es lo [br]mismo que la duda.

0:01:14.220,0:01:16.963
El riesgo está relacionado con [br]la duda, pero son diferentes.

0:01:17.670,0:01:23.826
Todos los riesgos son inciertos, [br]mas no todas las dudas son riesgos.

0:01:24.653,0:01:27.589
Si tiene un registro [br]o una lista de riesgos,

0:01:27.942,0:01:31.435
no tiene un millón de [br]elementos, o no debería.

0:01:31.962,0:01:34.512
Probablemente ni siquiera [br]tenga mil elementos en él,

0:01:34.512,0:01:35.788
tienes un número menor.

0:01:36.714,0:01:40.007
Aunque hay millones[br]de incertidumbres en el mundo.

0:01:40.400,0:01:44.313
Entonces, ¿Cómo decidimos [br]qué incertidumbres llamamos "riesgo"?

0:01:44.677,0:01:47.280
Y anótalos en el registro de riesgos.

0:01:47.548,0:01:50.057
y decide hacer algo al respecto.

0:01:50.483,0:01:56.362
Claramente, el 'riesgo' es un subconjunto [br]de incertidumbres, pero ¿Qué subconjunto?

0:01:56.942,0:01:58.133
¿Cómo lo sabes?

0:01:58.798,0:02:02.948
Creo que es muy sencillo [br]separar riesgo e incertidumbre.

0:02:03.199,0:02:05.274
Y utilizo 3 palabras en inglés,

0:02:05.425,0:02:10.019
"El riesgo es la [br]incertidumbre que importa".

0:02:11.503,0:02:14.783
Porque la mayoría de[br]las incertidumbres no importan.

0:02:15.564,0:02:19.014
No nos importa si va a llover[br]en Londres mañana por la tarde.

0:02:19.400,0:02:23.780
Podría, puede que no.[br]Es irrelevante, no importa.

0:02:24.498,0:02:26.948
No nos importa que [br]tipo de cambio será

0:02:26.948,0:02:30.703
si está entre el rublo [br]ruso y el yen chino en 2020.

0:02:30.703,0:02:32.387
No nos importa.

0:02:32.888,0:02:35.118
Pero hay cosas en nuestros proyectos,

0:02:35.427,0:02:37.117
y cosas de nuestras familias,

0:02:37.259,0:02:38.859
y cosas de nuestro país,

0:02:38.979,0:02:41.446
que son inciertos que nos importan.

0:02:42.195,0:02:45.338
Si lo que importa es una [br]incertidumbre, es un riesgo.

0:02:46.188,0:02:49.991
Entonces aquí hay otra [br]pregunta, como sabes lo que importa

0:02:50.751,0:02:53.396
En tus proyectos[br]¿Cuáles son las cosas que importan?

0:02:54.077,0:02:57.875
Lo que importa en tus[br]proyectos son los objetivos.

0:02:58.532,0:03:02.216
Por eso siempre debemos conectar[br]la incertidumbre con los objetivos,

0:03:02.991,0:03:05.631
para encontrar los riesgos.

0:03:06.005,0:03:08.355
Y si miramos a algunas[br]definiciones de riesgo,

0:03:08.361,0:03:11.405
este es el estándar[br]ISO que mencioné,

0:03:11.445,0:03:13.796
conecta esas palabras [br]de manera muy simple;

0:03:13.796,0:03:17.559
El riesgo es el efecto de la [br]incertidumbre sobre los objetivos.

0:03:18.451,0:03:21.201
Y podríamos mirar otra [br]definición del Reino Unido,

0:03:21.387,0:03:23.916
de nuestra asociación[br]para la gestión de proyectos,

0:03:24.144,0:03:28.134
dice lo mismo que [br]arriesga es un evento incierto

0:03:28.152,0:03:32.212
o un conjunto de [br]circunstancias, que es incierto,

0:03:32.212,0:03:35.372
pero importa porque si ocurriera,

0:03:35.372,0:03:38.587
tendrá un efecto[br]sobre la consecución de objetivos.

0:03:38.603,0:03:40.553
Incertidumbre que importa.

0:03:40.867,0:03:44.317
Entonces deberíamos estar [br]mirando en nuestro registro por dos cosas:

0:03:44.703,0:03:48.803
"¿Es incierto?" No queremos[br]problemas en nuestro registro.

0:03:49.183,0:03:52.113
No queremos problemas en el registro.

0:03:52.113,0:03:55.020
No quiero restricciones ni requisitos.

0:03:55.291,0:03:59.631
Estas cosas son ciertas[br]lo que queremos son incertidumbres,

0:03:59.721,0:04:02.241
algo que puede pasar[br]o puede que no suceda.

0:04:03.076,0:04:06.766
Pero la otra pregunta[br]importante para nuestro registro es

0:04:06.766,0:04:08.366
"¿Importa?"

0:04:08.439,0:04:11.739
¿Qué objetivo sería[br]afectado si esto sucediera?

0:04:13.304,0:04:15.810
Y cuando queremos[br]ver qué tan grande es el riesgo,

0:04:16.160,0:04:18.322
Nosotros podemos hacer esas dos preguntas:

0:04:18.338,0:04:19.768
"¿Qué tan incierto es,

0:04:19.985,0:04:22.095
y cuanto importa? "

0:04:22.132,0:04:24.502
Y eso nos dirá[br]qué tan grande es el riesgo.

0:04:24.564,0:04:27.044
Entonces, esta idea de[br]incertidumbre que importa

0:04:27.084,0:04:30.536
luego se convierte[br]en algo que sea útil

0:04:30.618,0:04:33.317
vinculando la[br]incertidumbre a nuestros objetivos.

0:04:34.767,0:04:37.148
Entonces, tenemos dos[br]dimensiones de "riesgo",

0:04:37.409,0:04:39.658
una dimensión de incertidumbre y

0:04:39.658,0:04:42.093
una dimensión que[br]afecta nuestros objetivos

0:04:43.249,0:04:47.419
En proyectos, llamamos[br]esta probabilidad e impacto.

0:04:47.449,0:04:49.502
Podríamos llamarlos de otras cosas

0:04:49.502,0:04:51.233
hay otros ingleses

0:04:51.233,0:04:52.767
palabras que [br]podrían usar, pero

0:04:52.767,0:04:54.553
estos son los[br]que a menudo más usamos.

0:04:54.702,0:04:57.732
Y me gustaría preguntarte [br]con esta imagen del ratón.

0:04:59.632,0:05:04.647
¿Qué efecto le importa al ratón?

0:05:05.874,0:05:09.315
Entonces, en primer lugar, [br]se encuentra en una situación incierta.

0:05:09.845,0:05:12.193
Y ha visto algunos riesgos.

0:05:12.457,0:05:15.359
Su objetivo es [br]conseguir el queso y sobrevivir.

0:05:15.938,0:05:18.817
Y entonces, uno de los [br]riesgos que ha identificado es malo.

0:05:18.903,0:05:21.353
esto podría suceder:[br]podría morir o resultar herido.

0:05:22.177,0:05:24.517
Y entonces, ha sido un[br]buen director de proyectos,

0:05:24.517,0:05:27.032
se ha puesto su pequeño [br]casco y se está preparando

0:05:27.152,0:05:32.051
para que no le pase a él.[br]Entonces, él no muere ni resulta herido.

0:05:32.051,0:05:32.821
Muy bien.

0:05:33.690,0:05:36.560
Y hay cosas en nuestros [br]proyectos, que si pasaran

0:05:36.560,0:05:37.875
nos mataría o heriría.

0:05:37.875,0:05:39.218
Ellos perderían el tiempo,

0:05:39.218,0:05:41.566
desperdiciar dinero, dañar la reputación,

0:05:41.566,0:05:42.986
destruir el rendimiento,

0:05:43.202,0:05:45.732
tal vez incluso [br]lastimar a personas reales.

0:05:46.230,0:05:49.880
Y como directores de proyecto [br]tenemos que ver y evitar que sucedan.

0:05:49.957,0:05:51.792
Protegernos a nosotros mismos.

0:05:51.857,0:05:52.867
Evítalos.

0:05:54.240,0:05:57.870
¿Hay otras incertidumbres[br]que le importa al ratón?

0:05:59.637,0:06:01.327
Bueno, hay …

0:06:01.327,0:06:02.275
el queso.

0:06:02.678,0:06:05.558
Aquí hay una [br]incertidumbre que importa mucho.

0:06:05.558,0:06:07.887
"¿Sacaré el queso de la trampa?"

0:06:08.733,0:06:10.429
Podría, o puede que no.

0:06:10.967,0:06:14.121
Y si no obtiene[br]el queso, ha fallado.

0:06:14.961,0:06:17.471
Entonces tienes dos[br]incertidumbres a manejar,

0:06:17.471,0:06:20.133
Uno de ellos es malo - [br]podría ser asesinado o herido -

0:06:20.419,0:06:22.639
el otro es bueno -[br]podría conseguir el queso.

0:06:23.129,0:06:24.616
Y lo que tiene que hacer

0:06:24.968,0:06:28.958
es gestionar ambos al mismo tiempo.

0:06:29.232,0:06:32.159
Y como directores de proyecto,[br]tenemos que hacer lo mismo.

0:06:32.788,0:06:36.128
Y también tenemos [br]que hacerlo de la mejor manera posible -

0:06:36.128,0:06:40.546
a veces hay una mejor manera[br]para hacerlo sin morir o resultar herido.

0:06:41.428,0:06:44.518
En nuestros proyectos, tenemos[br]que evitar que sucedan cosas malas,

0:06:44.889,0:06:47.789


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