0:00:00.888,0:00:04.642
Chris Anderson: Hello.[br]Welcome to this TED Dialogue.

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It's the first of a series[br]that's going to be done

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in response to the current[br]political upheaval.

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I don't know about you;

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I've become quite concerned about[br]the growing divisiveness in this country

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and in the world.

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No one's listening to each other. Right?

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They aren't.

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I mean, it feels like we need[br]a different kind of conversation,

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one that's based on -- I don't know,[br]on reason, listening, on understanding,

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on a broader context.

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That's at least what we're going to try[br]in these TED Dialogues,

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starting today.

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And we couldn't have anyone with us

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who I'd be more excited to kick this off.

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This is a mind right here that thinks[br]pretty much like no one else

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on the planet, I would hasten to say.

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I'm serious.

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(Yuval Noah Harari laughs)

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I'm serious.

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He synthesizes history[br]with underlying ideas

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in a way that kind of takes[br]your breath away.

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So, some of you will know[br]this book, "Sapiens."

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Has anyone here read "Sapiens"?

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(Applause)

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I mean, I could not put it down.

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The way that he tells the story of mankind

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through big ideas that really make you[br]think differently --

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it's kind of amazing.

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And here's the follow-up,

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which I think is being published[br]in the US next week.

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YNH: Yeah, next week.

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CA: "Homo Deus."

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Now, this is the history[br]of the next hundred years.

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I've had a chance to read it.

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It's extremely dramatic,

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and I daresay, for some people,[br]quite alarming.

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It's a must-read.

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And honestly, we couldn't have[br]someone better to help

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make sense of what on Earth[br]is happening in the world right now.

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So a warm welcome, please,[br]to Yuval Noah Harari.

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(Applause)

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It's great to be joined by our friends[br]on Facebook and around the Web.

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Hello, Facebook.

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And all of you, as I start[br]asking questions of Yuval,

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come up with your own questions,

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and not necessarily about[br]the political scandal Du jour,

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but about the broader understanding[br]of: Where are we heading?

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You ready? OK, we're going to go.

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So here we are, Yuval:

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New York City, 2017,[br]there's a new president in power,

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and shock waves rippling around the world.

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What on Earth is happening?

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YNH: I think the basic thing that happened

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is that we have lost our story.

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Humans think in stories,

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and we try to make sense of the world[br]by telling stories.

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And for the last few decades,

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we had a very simple[br]and very attractive story

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about what's happening in the world.

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And the story said that,[br]oh, what's happening is

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that the economy is being globalized,

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politics is being liberalized,

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and the combination of the two[br]will create paradise on Earth,

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and we just need to keep on[br]globalizing the economy

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and liberalizing the political system,

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and everything will be wonderful.

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And 2016 is the moment

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when a very large segment,[br]even of the Western world,

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stopped believing in this story.

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For good or bad reasons --[br]it doesn't matter.

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People stopped believing in the story,

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and when you don't have a story,[br]you don't understand what's happening.

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CA: Part of you believes that that story[br]was actually a very effective story.

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It worked.

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YNH: To some extent, yes.

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According to some measurements,

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we are now in the best time ever

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for humankind.

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Today, for the first time in history,

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more people die from eating too much[br]than from eating too little,

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which is an amazing achievement.

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(Laughter)

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Also for the first time in history,

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more people die from old age[br]than from infectious diseases,

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and violence is also down.

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For the first time in history,

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more people commit suicide[br]than are killed by crime and terrorism

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and war put together.

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Statistically, you are[br]your own worst enemy.

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At least, of all the people in the world,

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you are most likely[br]to be killed by yourself --

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(Laughter)

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which is, again,[br]very good news, compared --

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(Laughter)

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compared to the level of violence[br]that we saw in previous eras.

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CA: But this process[br]of connecting the world

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ended up with a large group of people[br]kind of feeling left out,

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and they've reacted.

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And so we have this bombshell

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that's sort of ripping[br]through the whole system.

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I mean, what do you make[br]of what's happened?

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It feels like the old way[br]that people thought of politics,

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the left-right divide,[br]has been blown up and replaced.

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How should we think of this?

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YNH: Yeah, the old 20th-century[br]political model of left versus right

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is now largely irrelevant,

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and the real divide today[br]is between global and national,

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global or local.

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And you see it again all over the world

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that this is now the main struggle.

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We probably need completely[br]new political models

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and completely new ways[br]of thinking about politics.

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In essence, what you can say[br]is that we now have global ecology,

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we have a global economy[br]but we have national politics,

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and this doesn't work together.

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This makes the political[br]system ineffective,

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because it has no control[br]over the forces that shape our life.

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And you have basically two solutions[br]to this imbalance:

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either de-globalize the economy[br]and turn it back into a national economy,

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or globalize the political system.

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CA: So some, I guess[br]many, liberals out there

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view Trump and his government[br]as kind of irredeemably bad,

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just awful in every way.

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Do you see any underlying narrative[br]or political philosophy in there

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that is at least worth understanding?

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How would you articulate that philosophy?

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Is it just the philosophy of nationalism?

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YNH: I think the underlying[br]feeling or idea

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is that the political system --[br]something is broken there.

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It doesn't empower[br]the ordinary person anymore.

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It doesn't care so much[br]about the ordinary person anymore,

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and I think this diagnosis[br]of the political disease is correct.

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With regard to the answers,[br]I am far less certain.

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I think what we are seeing[br]is the immediate human reaction:

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if something doesn't work, let's go back.

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And you see it all over the world,

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that people, almost nobody[br]in the political system today,

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has any future-oriented vision[br]of where humankind is going.

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Almost everywhere,[br]you see retrograde vision:

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"Let's make America great again,"

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like it was great -- I don't know --[br]in the '50s, in the '80s, sometime,

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let's go back there.

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And you go to Russia[br]a hundred years after Lenin,

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Putin's vision for the future

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is basically, ah, let's go back[br]to the Tsarist empire.

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And in Israel, where I come from,

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the hottest political vision[br]of the present is:

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"Let's build the temple again."

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So let's go back 2,000 years backwards.

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So people are thinking[br]sometime in the past we've lost it,

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and sometimes in the past, it's like[br]you've lost your way in the city,

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and you say OK, let's go back[br]to the point where I felt secure

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and start again.

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I don't think this can work,

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but a lot of people,[br]this is their gut instinct.

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CA: But why couldn't it work?

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"America First" is a very[br]appealing slogan in many ways.

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Patriotism is, in many ways,[br]a very noble thing.

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It's played a role[br]in promoting cooperation

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among large numbers of people.

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Why couldn't you have a world[br]organized in countries,

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all of which put themselves first?

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YNH: For many centuries,[br]even thousands of years,

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patriotism worked quite well.

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Of course, it led to wars an so forth,

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but we shouldn't focus[br]too much on the bad.

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There are also many,[br]many positive things about patriotism,

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and the ability to have[br]a large number of people

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care about each other,

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sympathize with one another,

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and come together for collective action.

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If you go back to the first nations,

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so, thousands of years ago,

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the people who lived along[br]the Yellow River in China --

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it was many, many different tribes

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and they all depended on the river[br]for survival and for prosperity,

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but all of them also suffered[br]from periodical floods

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and periodical droughts.

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And no tribe could really do[br]anything about it,

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because each of them controlled[br]just a tiny section of the river.

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And then in a long[br]and complicated process,

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the tribes coalesced together[br]to form the Chinese nation,

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which controlled the entire Yellow River

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and had the ability to bring[br]hundreds of thousands of people together

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to build dams and canals[br]and regulate the river

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and prevent the worst floods and droughts

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and raise the level[br]of prosperity for everybody.

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And this worked in many places[br]around the world.

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But in the 21st century,

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technology is changing all that[br]in a fundamental way.

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We are now living -- all people[br]in the world --

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are living alongside the same cyber river,

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and no single nation can regulate[br]this river by itself.

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We are all living together[br]on a single planet,

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which is threatened by our own actions,

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and if you don't have some kind[br]of global cooperation,

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nationalism is just not on the right level[br]to tackle the problems,

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whether it's climate change[br]or whether it's technological disruption.

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CA: So it was a beautiful idea

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in a world where most of the action,[br]most of the issues,

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took place on national scale,

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but your argument is that the issues[br]that matter most today

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no longer take place on a national scale[br]but on a global scale.

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YNH: Exactly. All the major problems[br]of the world today

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are global in essence,

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and they cannot be solved

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unless through some kind[br]of global cooperation.

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It's not just climate change,

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which is, like, the most obvious[br]example people give.

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I think more in terms[br]of technological disruption.

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If you think about, for example,[br]artificial intelligence,

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over the next 20, 30 years

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pushing hundreds of millions of people[br]out of the job market --

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this is a problem on a global level.

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It will disrupt the economy[br]of all the countries.

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And similarly, if you think[br]about, say, bioengineering

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and people being afraid of conducting,

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I don't know, genetic engineering[br]research in humans,

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it won't help if just[br]a single country, let's say the US,

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outlaws all genetic experiments in humans,

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but China or North Korea[br]continues to do it.

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So the US cannot solve it by itself,

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and very quickly, the pressure on the US[br]to do the same will be immense

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because we are talking about[br]high-risk, high-gain technologies.

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If somebody else is doing it,[br]I can't allow myself to remain behind.

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The only way to have regulations,[br]effective regulations,

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on things like genetic engineering,

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is to have global regulations.

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If you just have national regulations,[br]nobody would like to stay behind.

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CA: So this is really interesting.

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It seems to me that this may be one key

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to provoking at least[br]a constructive conversation

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between the different sides here,

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because I think everyone can agree[br]that the start point

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of a lot of the anger[br]that's propelled us to where we are

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is because of the legitimate[br]concerns about job loss.

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Work is gone, a traditional[br]way of life has gone,

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and it's no wonder[br]that people are furious about that.

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And in general, they have blamed[br]globalism, global elites,

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for doing this to them[br]without asking their permission,

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and that seems like[br]a legitimate complaint.

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But what I hear you saying[br]is that -- so a key question is:

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What is the real cause of job loss,[br]both now and going forward?

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To the extent that it's about globalism,

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then the right response,[br]yes, is to shut down borders

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and keep people out[br]and change trade agreements and so forth.

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But you're saying, I think,

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that actually the bigger cause of job loss[br]is not going to be that at all.

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It's going to originate[br]in technological questions,

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and we have no chance of solving that

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unless we operate as a connected world.

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YNH: Yeah, I think that,

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I don't know about the present,[br]but looking to the future,

0:13:04.927,0:13:08.004
it's not the Mexicans or Chinese[br]who will take the jobs

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from the people in Pennsylvania,

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it's the robots and algorithms.

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So unless you plan to build a big wall[br]on the border of California --

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(Laughter)

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the wall on the border with Mexico[br]is going to be very ineffective.

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And I was struck when I watched[br]the debates before the election,

0:13:26.839,0:13:32.576
I was struck that certainly Trump[br]did not even attempt to frighten people

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by saying the robots will take your jobs.

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Now even if it's not true,[br]it doesn't matter.

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It could have been an extremely[br]effective way of frightening people --

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(Laughter)

0:13:42.090,0:13:43.251
and galvanizing people:

0:13:43.275,0:13:44.884
"The robots will take your jobs!"

0:13:44.908,0:13:46.263
And nobody used that line.

0:13:46.287,0:13:48.979
And it made me afraid,

0:13:49.003,0:13:53.051
because it meant[br]that no matter what happens

0:13:53.075,0:13:55.221
in universities and laboratories,

0:13:55.245,0:13:58.010
and there, there is already[br]an intense debate about it,

0:13:58.034,0:14:02.128
but in the mainstream political system[br]and among the general public,

0:14:02.152,0:14:04.262
people are just unaware

0:14:04.286,0:14:08.796
that there could be an immense[br]technological disruption --

0:14:08.820,0:14:12.942
not in 200 years,[br]but in 10, 20, 30 years --

0:14:12.966,0:14:15.536
and we have to do something about it now,

0:14:15.560,0:14:21.836
partly because most of what we teach[br]children today in school or in college

0:14:21.860,0:14:27.861
is going to be completely irrelevant[br]to the job market of 2040, 2050.

0:14:27.885,0:14:31.243
So it's not something we'll need[br]to think about in 2040.

0:14:31.267,0:14:34.860
We need to think today[br]what to teach the young people.

0:14:34.884,0:14:37.537
CA: Yeah, no, absolutely.

0:14:38.595,0:14:42.512
You've often written about[br]moments in history

0:14:42.536,0:14:49.395
where humankind has ...[br]entered a new era, unintentionally.

0:14:49.806,0:14:52.674
Decisions have been made,[br]technologies have been developed,

0:14:52.698,0:14:55.069
and suddenly the world has changed,

0:14:55.093,0:14:57.560
possibly in a way[br]that's worse for everyone.

0:14:57.584,0:14:59.659
So one of the examples[br]you give in "Sapiens"

0:14:59.683,0:15:01.774
is just the whole agricultural revolution,

0:15:01.798,0:15:05.352
which, for an actual person[br]tilling the fields,

0:15:05.376,0:15:08.556
they just picked up a 12-hour[br]backbreaking workday

0:15:08.580,0:15:14.828
instead of six hours in the jungle[br]and a much more interesting lifestyle.

0:15:14.852,0:15:15.894
(Laughter)

0:15:15.918,0:15:19.107
So are we at another possible[br]phase change here,

0:15:19.131,0:15:23.619
where we kind of sleepwalk into a future[br]that none of us actually wants?

0:15:24.058,0:15:26.791
YNH: Yes, very much so.

0:15:26.815,0:15:28.652
During the agricultural revolution,

0:15:28.676,0:15:33.096
what happened is that immense[br]technological and economic revolution

0:15:33.120,0:15:35.985
empowered the human collective,

0:15:36.009,0:15:38.962
but when you look at actual[br]individual lives,

0:15:38.986,0:15:42.480
the life of a tiny elite[br]became much better,

0:15:42.504,0:15:46.742
and the lives of the majority of people[br]became considerably worse.

0:15:46.766,0:15:49.471
And this can happen again[br]in the 21st century.

0:15:49.495,0:15:54.361
No doubt the new technologies[br]will empower the human collective.

0:15:54.385,0:15:57.105
But we may end up again

0:15:57.129,0:16:01.586
with a tiny elite reaping[br]all the benefits, taking all the fruits,

0:16:01.610,0:16:05.796
and the masses of the population[br]finding themselves worse

0:16:05.820,0:16:07.121
than they were before,

0:16:07.145,0:16:09.933
certainly much worse than this tiny elite.

0:16:10.657,0:16:13.312
CA: And those elites[br]might not even be human elites.

0:16:13.336,0:16:15.093
They might be cyborgs or --

0:16:15.117,0:16:17.324
YNH: Yeah, they could be[br]enhanced Superhumans.

0:16:17.348,0:16:18.603
They could be cyborgs.

0:16:18.627,0:16:20.984
They could be completely[br]nonorganic elites.

0:16:21.008,0:16:23.536
They could even be[br]non-conscious algorithms.

0:16:23.560,0:16:28.471
What we see now in the world[br]is authority shifting away

0:16:28.495,0:16:30.764
from humans to algorithms.

0:16:30.788,0:16:34.312
More and more decisions --[br]about personal lives,

0:16:34.336,0:16:37.008
about economic matters,[br]about political matters --

0:16:37.032,0:16:39.511
are actually being taken by algorithms.

0:16:39.535,0:16:42.169
If you ask the bank for a loan,

0:16:42.193,0:16:46.890
chances are your fate is decided[br]by an algorithm, not by a human being.

0:16:46.914,0:16:53.101
And the general impression[br]is that maybe Homo sapiens just lost it.

0:16:53.125,0:16:57.685
The world is so complicated,[br]there is so much data,

0:16:57.709,0:17:00.263
things are changing so fast,

0:17:00.287,0:17:03.888
that this thing that evolved[br]on the African savanna

0:17:03.912,0:17:05.619
tens of thousands of years ago --

0:17:05.643,0:17:09.140
to cope with a particular environment,

0:17:09.164,0:17:12.648
a particular volume[br]of information and data --

0:17:12.672,0:17:17.008
it just can't handle the realities[br]of the 21st century,

0:17:17.032,0:17:19.929
and the only thing[br]that may be able to handle it

0:17:19.953,0:17:22.025
is big-data algorithms.

0:17:22.049,0:17:28.230
So no wonder more and more authority[br]is shifting from us to the algorithms.

0:17:28.857,0:17:32.706
CA: So we're in New York City[br]for the first of a series of TED Dialogues

0:17:32.730,0:17:35.027
with Yuval Harari,

0:17:35.051,0:17:38.895
and there's a Facebook Live[br]audience out there.

0:17:38.919,0:17:40.570
We're excited to have you with us.

0:17:40.594,0:17:42.696
We'll start coming[br]to some of your questions

0:17:42.720,0:17:44.434
and questions of people in the room

0:17:44.458,0:17:45.623
in just a few minutes,

0:17:45.647,0:17:47.611
so have those coming.

0:17:47.635,0:17:51.532
Yuval, if you're going[br]to make the argument

0:17:51.556,0:17:57.691
that we need to get past nationalism[br]because of the coming technological ...

0:17:59.218,0:18:01.059
danger, in a way,

0:18:01.083,0:18:03.028
presented by so much of what's happening

0:18:03.052,0:18:05.495
we've got to have[br]a global conversation about this.

0:18:05.519,0:18:08.947
Trouble is, it's hard to get people[br]really believing that, I don't know,

0:18:08.971,0:18:11.132
AI really is an imminent[br]threat, and so forth.

0:18:11.156,0:18:13.882
The things that people,[br]some people at least,

0:18:13.906,0:18:15.941
care about much more immediately, perhaps,

0:18:15.965,0:18:17.549
is climate change,

0:18:17.573,0:18:22.466
perhaps other issues like refugees,[br]nuclear weapons, and so forth.

0:18:22.490,0:18:27.536
Would you argue that where[br]we are right now

0:18:27.560,0:18:31.109
that somehow those issues[br]need to be dialed up?

0:18:31.133,0:18:33.293
You've talked about climate change,

0:18:33.317,0:18:36.973
but Trump has said[br]he doesn't believe in that.

0:18:36.997,0:18:39.436
So in a way, your most powerful argument,

0:18:39.460,0:18:42.206
you can't actually use to make this case.

0:18:42.230,0:18:44.416
YNH: Yeah, I think with climate change,

0:18:44.440,0:18:48.147
at first sight, it's quite surprising

0:18:48.171,0:18:50.675
that there is a very close correlation

0:18:50.699,0:18:54.021
between nationalism and climate change.

0:18:54.045,0:18:58.632
I mean, almost always, the people[br]who deny climate change are nationalists.

0:18:58.656,0:19:00.737
And at first sight, you think: Why?

0:19:00.761,0:19:01.914
What's the connection?

0:19:01.938,0:19:04.724
Why don't you have socialists[br]denying climate change?

0:19:04.748,0:19:07.099
But then, when you think[br]about it, it's obvious --

0:19:07.123,0:19:10.867
because nationalism has no solution[br]to climate change.

0:19:10.891,0:19:14.087
If you want to be a nationalist[br]in the 21st century,

0:19:14.111,0:19:15.983
you have to deny the problem.

0:19:16.007,0:19:20.494
If you accept the reality of the problem,[br]then you must accept that, yes,

0:19:20.518,0:19:23.294
there is still room in the world[br]for patriotism,

0:19:23.318,0:19:27.469
there is still room in the world[br]for having special loyalties

0:19:27.493,0:19:32.127
and obligations towards your own people,[br]towards your own country.

0:19:32.151,0:19:35.971
I don't think anybody is really[br]thinking of abolishing that.

0:19:35.995,0:19:38.996
But in order to confront climate change,

0:19:39.020,0:19:43.231
we need additional loyalties[br]and commitments

0:19:43.255,0:19:45.260
to a level beyond the nation.

0:19:45.284,0:19:47.727
And that should not be impossible,

0:19:47.751,0:19:51.443
because people can have[br]several layers of loyalty.

0:19:51.467,0:19:53.871
You can be loyal to your family

0:19:53.895,0:19:55.408
and to your community

0:19:55.432,0:19:56.761
and to your nation,

0:19:56.785,0:20:00.413
so why can't you also be loyal[br]to humankind as a whole?

0:20:00.437,0:20:03.836
Of course, there are occasions[br]when it becomes difficult,

0:20:03.860,0:20:05.643
what to put first,

0:20:05.667,0:20:07.490
but, you know, life is difficult.

0:20:07.514,0:20:08.665
Handle it.

0:20:08.689,0:20:11.333
(Laughter)

0:20:11.357,0:20:15.855
CA: OK, so I would love to get[br]some questions from the audience here.

0:20:15.879,0:20:17.797
We've got a microphone here.

0:20:17.821,0:20:21.038
Speak into it, and Facebook,[br]get them coming, too.

0:20:21.062,0:20:24.496
Question: One of the things that has[br]clearly made a huge difference

0:20:24.520,0:20:26.306
in this country and other countries

0:20:26.330,0:20:28.544
is the income distribution inequality,

0:20:28.568,0:20:32.782
the dramatic change[br]in income distribution in the US

0:20:32.806,0:20:34.508
from what it was 50 years ago,

0:20:34.532,0:20:35.683
and around the world.

0:20:35.707,0:20:38.850
Is there anything we can do[br]to affect that?

0:20:38.874,0:20:41.715
Because that gets at a lot[br]of the underlying causes.

0:20:44.283,0:20:49.597
YNH: So far I haven't heard a very[br]good idea about what to do about it,

0:20:49.621,0:20:53.349
again, partly because most ideas[br]remain on the national level,

0:20:53.373,0:20:55.141
and the problem is global.

0:20:55.165,0:20:58.143
I mean, one idea that we hear[br]quite a lot about now

0:20:58.167,0:20:59.999
is universal basic income.

0:21:00.023,0:21:01.174
But this is a problem.

0:21:01.198,0:21:02.850
I mean, I think it's a good start,

0:21:02.874,0:21:06.596
but it's a problematic idea because[br]it's not clear what "universal" is

0:21:06.620,0:21:08.461
and it's not clear what "basic" is.

0:21:08.485,0:21:11.866
Most people when they speak[br]about universal basic income,

0:21:11.890,0:21:14.675
they actually mean national basic income.

0:21:14.699,0:21:16.443
But the problem is global.

0:21:16.467,0:21:22.117
Let's say that you have AI and 3D printers[br]taking away millions of jobs

0:21:22.141,0:21:23.297
in Bangladesh,

0:21:23.321,0:21:26.569
from all the people who make[br]my shirts and my shoes.

0:21:26.593,0:21:27.899
So what's going to happen?

0:21:27.923,0:21:34.462
The US government will levy taxes[br]on Google and Apple in California,

0:21:34.486,0:21:39.067
and use that to pay basic income[br]to unemployed Bangladeshis?

0:21:39.091,0:21:41.727
If you believe that,[br]you can just as well believe

0:21:41.751,0:21:45.414
that Santa Claus will come[br]and solve the problem.

0:21:45.438,0:21:50.564
So unless we have really universal[br]and not national basic income,

0:21:50.588,0:21:53.723
the deep problems[br]are not going to go away.

0:21:53.747,0:21:56.479
And also it's not clear what basic is,

0:21:56.503,0:21:59.136
because what are basic human needs?

0:21:59.160,0:22:01.970
A thousand years ago,[br]just food and shelter was enough.

0:22:01.994,0:22:05.605
But today, people will say[br]education is a basic human need,

0:22:05.629,0:22:07.202
it should be part of the package.

0:22:07.226,0:22:11.005
But how much? Six years?[br]Twelve years? PhD?

0:22:11.029,0:22:12.862
Similarly, with health care,

0:22:12.886,0:22:15.571
let's say that in 20, 30, 40 years,

0:22:15.595,0:22:19.368
you'll have expensive treatments[br]that can extend human life

0:22:19.392,0:22:21.307
to 120, I don't know.

0:22:21.331,0:22:26.522
Will this be part of the basket[br]of basic income or not?

0:22:26.546,0:22:27.975
It's a very difficult problem,

0:22:27.999,0:22:34.257
because in a world where people[br]lose their ability to be employed,

0:22:34.281,0:22:37.862
the only thing they are going to get[br]is this basic income.

0:22:37.886,0:22:43.013
So what's part of it is a very,[br]very difficult ethical question.

0:22:43.037,0:22:46.341
CA: There's a bunch of questions[br]on how the world affords it as well,

0:22:46.365,0:22:47.525
who pays.

0:22:47.549,0:22:50.361
There's a question here[br]from Facebook from Lisa Larson:

0:22:50.385,0:22:52.960
"How does nationalism in the US now

0:22:52.984,0:22:56.399
compare to that between[br]World War I and World War II

0:22:56.423,0:22:57.844
in the last century?"

0:22:57.868,0:23:02.316
YNH: Well the good news, with regard[br]to the dangers of nationalism,

0:23:02.340,0:23:06.263
we are in a much better position[br]than a century ago.

0:23:06.287,0:23:08.959
A century ago, 1917,

0:23:08.983,0:23:12.116
Europeans were killing[br]each other by the millions.

0:23:12.140,0:23:16.491
In 2016, with Brexit,[br]as far as I remember,

0:23:16.515,0:23:21.752
a single person lost their life,[br]an MP who was murdered by some extremist.

0:23:21.776,0:23:23.309
Just a single person.

0:23:23.333,0:23:26.018
I mean, if Brexit was about[br]British independence,

0:23:26.042,0:23:30.793
this is the most peaceful[br]war of independence in human history.

0:23:30.817,0:23:36.606
And let's say that Scotland[br]will now choose to leave the UK

0:23:36.630,0:23:38.806
after Brexit.

0:23:38.830,0:23:40.814
So in the 18th century,

0:23:40.838,0:23:44.070
if Scotland wanted -- and the Scots[br]wanted several times --

0:23:44.094,0:23:47.627
to break out of the control of London,

0:23:47.651,0:23:51.949
the reaction of the government[br]in London was to send an army up north

0:23:51.973,0:23:55.444
to burn down Edinburgh[br]and massacre the highland tribes.

0:23:55.468,0:24:01.024
My guess is that if, in 2018,[br]the Scots vote for independence,

0:24:01.048,0:24:04.457
the London government[br]will not send an army up north

0:24:04.481,0:24:06.084
to burn down Edinburgh.

0:24:06.108,0:24:10.375
Very few people are now willing[br]to kill or be killed

0:24:10.399,0:24:13.121
for Scottish or for British independence.

0:24:13.145,0:24:18.165
So for all the talk[br]of the rise of nationalism

0:24:18.189,0:24:20.432
and going back to the 1930s,

0:24:20.456,0:24:24.231
to the 19th century, in the West at least,

0:24:24.255,0:24:30.839
the power of national sentiments[br]today is far, far smaller

0:24:30.863,0:24:32.403
than it was a century ago.

0:24:32.427,0:24:36.264
CA: Although some people now,[br]you hear publicly worrying

0:24:36.288,0:24:39.044
about whether that might be shifting,

0:24:39.068,0:24:42.466
that there could actually be[br]outbreaks of violence in the US

0:24:42.490,0:24:44.837
depending on how things turn out.

0:24:44.861,0:24:46.400
Should we be worried about that,

0:24:46.424,0:24:48.490
or do you really think[br]things have shifted?

0:24:48.514,0:24:50.005
YNH: No, we should be worried.

0:24:50.029,0:24:51.654
We should be aware of two things.

0:24:51.678,0:24:53.315
First of all, don't be hysterical.

0:24:53.339,0:24:56.786
We are not back[br]in the First World War yet.

0:24:56.810,0:24:59.750
But on the other hand,[br]don't be complacent.

0:24:59.774,0:25:05.148
We reached from 1917 to 2017,

0:25:05.172,0:25:07.354
not by some divine miracle,

0:25:07.378,0:25:09.402
but simply by human decisions,

0:25:09.426,0:25:12.089
and if we now start making[br]the wrong decisions,

0:25:12.113,0:25:16.598
we could be back[br]in an analogous situation to 1917

0:25:16.622,0:25:18.128
in a few years.

0:25:18.152,0:25:20.473
One of the things I know as a historian

0:25:20.497,0:25:24.172
is that you should never[br]underestimate human stupidity.

0:25:24.196,0:25:27.079
(Laughter)

0:25:27.103,0:25:30.187
It's one of the most powerful[br]forces in history,

0:25:30.211,0:25:32.538
human stupidity and human violence.

0:25:32.562,0:25:36.667
Humans do such crazy things[br]for no obvious reason,

0:25:36.691,0:25:38.401
but again, at the same time,

0:25:38.425,0:25:42.029
another very powerful force[br]in human history is human wisdom.

0:25:42.053,0:25:43.219
We have both.

0:25:43.243,0:25:46.145
CA: We have with us here[br]moral psychologist Jonathan Haidt,

0:25:46.169,0:25:47.792
who I think has a question.

0:25:48.871,0:25:50.354
Jonathan Haidt: Thanks, Yuval.

0:25:50.378,0:25:52.861
So you seem to be a fan[br]of global governance,

0:25:52.885,0:25:56.405
but when you look at the map of the world[br]from Transparency International,

0:25:56.429,0:25:59.757
which rates the level of corruption[br]of political institutions,

0:25:59.781,0:26:02.861
it's a vast sea of red with little bits[br]of yellow here and there

0:26:02.885,0:26:04.490
for those with good institutions.

0:26:04.514,0:26:07.015
So if we were to have[br]some kind of global governance,

0:26:07.039,0:26:09.870
what makes you think it would end up[br]being more like Denmark

0:26:09.894,0:26:11.934
rather than more like Russia or Honduras,

0:26:11.958,0:26:13.459
and aren't there alternatives,

0:26:13.483,0:26:15.569
such as we did with CFCs?

0:26:15.593,0:26:18.700
There are ways to solve global problems[br]with national governments.

0:26:18.724,0:26:20.938
What would world government[br]actually look like,

0:26:20.962,0:26:22.683
and why do you think it would work?

0:26:22.707,0:26:26.467
YNH: Well, I don't know[br]what it would look like.

0:26:26.491,0:26:29.543
Nobody still has a model for that.

0:26:29.567,0:26:32.195
The main reason we need it

0:26:32.219,0:26:36.513
is because many of these issues[br]are lose-lose situations.

0:26:36.537,0:26:39.429
When you have[br]a win-win situation like trade,

0:26:39.453,0:26:42.369
both sides can benefit[br]from a trade agreement,

0:26:42.393,0:26:44.657
then this is something you can work out.

0:26:44.681,0:26:47.027
Without some kind of global government,

0:26:47.051,0:26:49.905
national governments each[br]have an interest in doing it.

0:26:49.929,0:26:53.900
But when you have a lose-lose situation[br]like with climate change,

0:26:53.924,0:26:55.565
it's much more difficult

0:26:55.589,0:27:00.475
without some overarching[br]authority, real authority.

0:27:00.499,0:27:03.261
Now, how to get there[br]and what would it look like,

0:27:03.285,0:27:04.645
I don't know.

0:27:04.669,0:27:08.406
And certainly there is no obvious reason

0:27:08.430,0:27:10.710
to think that it would look like Denmark,

0:27:10.734,0:27:12.322
or that it would be a democracy.

0:27:12.346,0:27:14.932
Most likely it wouldn't.

0:27:14.956,0:27:20.987
We don't have workable democratic models

0:27:21.011,0:27:23.107
for a global government.

0:27:23.131,0:27:26.196
So maybe it would look more[br]like ancient China

0:27:26.220,0:27:27.919
than like modern Denmark.

0:27:27.943,0:27:33.166
But still, given the dangers[br]that we are facing,

0:27:33.190,0:27:38.310
I think the imperative of having[br]some kind of real ability

0:27:38.334,0:27:42.462
to force through difficult decisions[br]on the global level

0:27:42.486,0:27:46.616
is more important[br]than almost anything else.

0:27:47.591,0:27:49.689
CA: There's a question from Facebook here,

0:27:49.713,0:27:51.606
and then we'll get the mic to Andrew.

0:27:51.630,0:27:53.826
So, Kat Hebron on Facebook,

0:27:53.850,0:27:55.518
calling in from Vail:

0:27:55.542,0:27:59.753
"How would developed nations manage[br]the millions of climate migrants?"

0:28:00.818,0:28:02.972
YNH: I don't know.

0:28:02.996,0:28:04.888
CA: That's your answer, Kat. (Laughter)

0:28:04.912,0:28:07.058
YNH: And I don't think[br]that they know either.

0:28:07.082,0:28:08.876
They'll just deny the problem, maybe.

0:28:08.900,0:28:11.925
CA: But immigration, generally,[br]is another example of a problem

0:28:11.949,0:28:14.522
that's very hard to solve[br]on a nation-by-nation basis.

0:28:14.546,0:28:16.016
One nation can shut its doors,

0:28:16.040,0:28:18.574
but maybe that stores up[br]problems for the future.

0:28:18.598,0:28:22.470
YNH: Yes, I mean --[br]it's another very good case,

0:28:22.494,0:28:24.723
especially because it's so much easier

0:28:24.747,0:28:26.578
to migrate today

0:28:26.602,0:28:30.291
than it was in the Middle Ages[br]or in ancient times.

0:28:30.315,0:28:34.778
CA: Yuval, there's a belief[br]among many technologists, certainly,

0:28:34.802,0:28:37.153
that political concerns[br]are kind of overblown,

0:28:37.177,0:28:40.874
that actually, political leaders[br]don't have that much influence

0:28:40.898,0:28:42.064
in the world,

0:28:42.088,0:28:46.057
that the real determination of humanity[br]at this point is by science,

0:28:46.081,0:28:47.527
by invention, by companies,

0:28:47.551,0:28:51.943
by many things[br]other than political leaders,

0:28:51.967,0:28:54.378
and it's actually very hard[br]for leaders to do much,

0:28:54.402,0:28:56.760
so we're actually worrying[br]about nothing here.

0:28:58.005,0:29:00.241
YNH: Well, first, it should be emphasized

0:29:00.265,0:29:05.262
that it's true that political leaders'[br]ability to do good is very limited,

0:29:05.286,0:29:08.329
but their ability to do harm is unlimited.

0:29:08.353,0:29:10.953
There is a basic imbalance here.

0:29:10.977,0:29:14.545
You can still press the button[br]and blow everybody up.

0:29:14.569,0:29:16.155
You have that kind of ability.

0:29:16.179,0:29:19.748
But if you want, for example,[br]to reduce inequality,

0:29:19.772,0:29:21.649
that's very, very difficult.

0:29:21.673,0:29:23.069
But to start a war,

0:29:23.093,0:29:24.944
you can still do so very easily.

0:29:24.968,0:29:28.560
So there is a built-in imbalance[br]in the political system today

0:29:28.584,0:29:30.195
which is very frustrating,

0:29:30.219,0:29:35.120
where you cannot do a lot of good[br]but you can still do a lot of harm.

0:29:35.144,0:29:39.288
And this makes the political system[br]still a very big concern.

0:29:39.812,0:29:41.963
CA: So as you look at[br]what's happening today,

0:29:41.987,0:29:43.741
and putting your historian's hat on,

0:29:43.765,0:29:47.291
do you look back in history at moments[br]when things were going just fine

0:29:47.315,0:29:52.648
and an individual leader really took[br]the world or their country backwards?

0:29:53.307,0:29:55.936
YNH: There are quite a few examples,

0:29:55.960,0:29:58.779
but I should emphasize,[br]it's never an individual leader.

0:29:58.803,0:30:00.437
I mean, somebody put him there,

0:30:00.461,0:30:03.744
and somebody allowed him[br]to continue to be there.

0:30:03.768,0:30:07.851
So it's never really just the fault[br]of a single individual.

0:30:07.875,0:30:12.488
There are a lot of people[br]behind every such individual.

0:30:12.512,0:30:15.990
CA: Can we have the microphone[br]here, please, to Andrew?

0:30:19.132,0:30:22.696
Andrew Solomon: You've talked a lot[br]about the global versus the national,

0:30:22.720,0:30:24.346
but increasingly, it seems to me,

0:30:24.370,0:30:27.013
the world situation[br]is in the hands of identity groups.

0:30:27.037,0:30:29.347
We look at people within the United States

0:30:29.371,0:30:30.998
who have been recruited by ISIS.

0:30:31.022,0:30:33.213
We look at these other groups[br]which have formed

0:30:33.237,0:30:35.199
which go outside of national bounds

0:30:35.223,0:30:37.384
but still represent[br]significant authorities.

0:30:37.408,0:30:39.836
How are they to be integrated[br]into the system,

0:30:39.860,0:30:43.573
and how is a diverse set of identities[br]to be made coherent

0:30:43.597,0:30:45.935
under either national[br]or global leadership?

0:30:47.380,0:30:50.601
YNH: Well, the problem[br]of such diverse identities

0:30:50.625,0:30:52.681
is a problem from nationalism as well.

0:30:53.229,0:30:57.584
Nationalism believes[br]in a single, monolithic identity,

0:30:57.608,0:31:01.724
and exclusive or at least[br]more extreme versions of nationalism

0:31:01.748,0:31:05.317
believe in an exclusive loyalty[br]to a single identity.

0:31:05.341,0:31:08.257
And therefore, nationalism has had[br]a lot of problems

0:31:08.281,0:31:11.157
with people wanting to divide[br]their identities

0:31:11.181,0:31:13.244
between various groups.

0:31:13.268,0:31:18.143
So it's not just a problem, say,[br]for a global vision.

0:31:18.540,0:31:22.392
And I think, again, history shows

0:31:22.416,0:31:28.543
that you shouldn't necessarily[br]think in such exclusive terms.

0:31:28.567,0:31:31.975
If you think that there is just[br]a single identity for a person,

0:31:31.999,0:31:37.039
"I am just X, that's it, I can't be[br]several things, I can be just that,"

0:31:37.063,0:31:39.159
that's the start of the problem.

0:31:39.183,0:31:41.971
You have religions, you have nations

0:31:41.995,0:31:45.177
that sometimes demand exclusive loyalty,

0:31:45.201,0:31:46.932
but it's not the only option.

0:31:46.956,0:31:49.338
There are many religions and many nations

0:31:49.362,0:31:53.240
that enable you to have[br]diverse identities at the same time.

0:31:53.264,0:31:57.621
CA: But is one explanation[br]of what's happened in the last year

0:31:57.645,0:32:02.825
that a group of people have got[br]fed up with, if you like,

0:32:02.849,0:32:06.016
the liberal elites,[br]for want of a better term,

0:32:06.040,0:32:10.413
obsessing over many, many different[br]identities and them feeling,

0:32:10.437,0:32:14.296
"But what about my identity?[br]I am being completely ignored here.

0:32:14.320,0:32:17.294
And by the way, I thought[br]I was the majority"?

0:32:17.318,0:32:20.299
And that that's actually[br]sparked a lot of the anger.

0:32:20.918,0:32:24.063
YNH: Yeah. Identity is always problematic,

0:32:24.087,0:32:28.397
because identity is always based[br]on fictional stories

0:32:28.421,0:32:31.310
that sooner or later collide with reality.

0:32:31.890,0:32:33.408
Almost all identities,

0:32:33.432,0:32:36.843
I mean, beyond the level[br]of the basic community

0:32:36.867,0:32:38.336
of a few dozen people,

0:32:38.360,0:32:40.289
are based on a fictional story.

0:32:40.313,0:32:41.954
They are not the truth.

0:32:41.978,0:32:43.293
They are not the reality.

0:32:43.317,0:32:46.411
It's just a story that people invent[br]and tell one another

0:32:46.435,0:32:47.926
and start believing.

0:32:47.950,0:32:53.270
And therefore all identities[br]are extremely unstable.

0:32:53.294,0:32:55.821
They are not a biological reality.

0:32:55.845,0:32:57.851
Sometimes nationalists, for example,

0:32:57.875,0:33:00.802
think that the nation[br]is a biological entity.

0:33:00.826,0:33:04.439
It's made of the combination[br]of soil and blood,

0:33:04.463,0:33:06.165
creates the nation.

0:33:06.189,0:33:09.281
But this is just a fictional story.

0:33:09.305,0:33:11.868
CA: Soil and blood[br]kind of makes a gooey mess.

0:33:11.892,0:33:13.714
(Laughter)

0:33:13.738,0:33:16.762
YNH: It does, and also[br]it messes with your mind

0:33:16.786,0:33:21.570
when you think too much[br]that I am a combination of soil and blood.

0:33:21.594,0:33:24.461
If you look from a biological perspective,

0:33:24.485,0:33:27.963
obviously none of the nations[br]that exist today

0:33:27.987,0:33:30.230
existed 5,000 years ago.

0:33:30.254,0:33:34.112
Homo sapiens is a social animal,[br]that's for sure.

0:33:34.136,0:33:36.563
But for millions of years,

0:33:36.587,0:33:41.226
Homo sapiens and our hominid ancestors[br]lived in small communities

0:33:41.250,0:33:43.579
of a few dozen individuals.

0:33:43.603,0:33:45.730
Everybody knew everybody else.

0:33:45.754,0:33:49.775
Whereas modern nations[br]are imagined communities,

0:33:49.799,0:33:52.350
in the sense that I don't even know[br]all these people.

0:33:52.374,0:33:55.222
I come from a relatively[br]small nation, Israel,

0:33:55.246,0:33:57.389
and of eight million Israelis,

0:33:57.413,0:33:59.403
I never met most of them.

0:33:59.427,0:34:01.735
I will never meet most of them.

0:34:01.759,0:34:04.321
They basically exist here.

0:34:04.345,0:34:07.094
CA: But in terms of this identity,

0:34:07.118,0:34:12.555
this group who feel left out[br]and perhaps have work taken away,

0:34:12.579,0:34:14.873
I mean, in "Homo Deus,"

0:34:14.897,0:34:18.008
you actually speak of this group[br]in one sense expanding,

0:34:18.032,0:34:21.654
that so many people[br]may have their jobs taken away

0:34:21.678,0:34:26.058
by technology in some way[br]that we could end up with

0:34:26.082,0:34:29.253
a really large -- I think you call it[br]a "useless class" --

0:34:29.277,0:34:31.380
a class where traditionally,

0:34:31.404,0:34:34.135
as viewed by the economy,[br]these people have no use.

0:34:34.159,0:34:35.357
YNH: Yes.

0:34:35.381,0:34:38.312
CA: How likely a possibility is that?

0:34:38.336,0:34:41.080
Is that something[br]we should be terrified about?

0:34:41.104,0:34:43.763
And can we address it in any way?

0:34:43.787,0:34:46.034
YNH: We should think about it[br]very carefully.

0:34:46.058,0:34:49.029
I mean, nobody really knows[br]what the job market will look like

0:34:49.053,0:34:50.743
in 2040, 2050.

0:34:50.767,0:34:53.475
There is a chance[br]many new jobs will appear,

0:34:53.499,0:34:55.253
but it's not certain.

0:34:55.277,0:34:57.488
And even if new jobs do appear,

0:34:57.512,0:34:59.496
it won't necessarily be easy

0:34:59.520,0:35:02.519
for a 50-year old unemployed truck driver

0:35:02.543,0:35:05.576
made unemployed by self-driving vehicles,

0:35:05.600,0:35:09.253
it won't be easy[br]for an unemployed truck driver

0:35:09.277,0:35:14.063
to reinvent himself or herself[br]as a designer of virtual worlds.

0:35:14.087,0:35:18.269
Previously, if you look at the trajectory[br]of the industrial revolution,

0:35:18.293,0:35:22.450
when machines replaced humans[br]in one type of work,

0:35:22.474,0:35:26.755
the solution usually came[br]from low-skill work

0:35:26.779,0:35:29.367
in new lines of business.

0:35:29.391,0:35:32.793
So you didn't need any more[br]agricultural workers,

0:35:32.817,0:35:38.231
so people moved to working[br]in low-skill industrial jobs,

0:35:38.255,0:35:41.724
and when this was taken away[br]by more and more machines,

0:35:41.748,0:35:44.718
people moved to low-skill service jobs.

0:35:44.742,0:35:48.102
Now, when people say there will[br]be new jobs in the future,

0:35:48.126,0:35:50.555
that humans can do better than AI,

0:35:50.579,0:35:52.409
that humans can do better than robots,

0:35:52.433,0:35:55.073
they usually think about high-skill jobs,

0:35:55.097,0:35:58.968
like software engineers[br]designing virtual worlds.

0:35:58.992,0:36:04.386
Now, I don't see how[br]an unemployed cashier from Wal-Mart

0:36:04.410,0:36:09.033
reinvents herself or himself at 50[br]as a designer of virtual worlds,

0:36:09.057,0:36:10.528
and certainly I don't see

0:36:10.552,0:36:14.019
how the millions of unemployed[br]Bangladeshi textile workers

0:36:14.043,0:36:15.654
will be able to do that.

0:36:15.678,0:36:17.398
I mean, if they are going to do it,

0:36:17.422,0:36:20.778
we need to start teaching[br]the Bangladeshis today

0:36:20.802,0:36:22.556
how to be software designers,

0:36:22.580,0:36:23.823
and we are not doing it.

0:36:23.847,0:36:26.338
So what will they do in 20 years?

0:36:26.362,0:36:30.276
CA: So it feels like you're really[br]highlighting a question

0:36:30.300,0:36:34.483
that's really been bugging me[br]the last few months more and more.

0:36:34.507,0:36:37.362
It's almost a hard question[br]to ask in public,

0:36:37.386,0:36:40.777
but if any mind has some wisdom[br]to offer in it, maybe it's yours,

0:36:40.801,0:36:42.346
so I'm going to ask you:

0:36:42.370,0:36:44.248
What are humans for?

0:36:45.232,0:36:47.166
YNH: As far as we know, for nothing.

0:36:47.190,0:36:48.902
(Laughter)

0:36:48.926,0:36:54.452
I mean, there is no great cosmic drama,[br]some great cosmic plan,

0:36:54.476,0:36:57.317
that we have a role to play in.

0:36:57.341,0:37:00.365
And we just need to discover[br]what our role is

0:37:00.389,0:37:03.381
and then play it to the best[br]of our ability.

0:37:03.405,0:37:08.383
This has been the story of all religions[br]and ideologies and so forth,

0:37:08.407,0:37:11.885
but as a scientist, the best I can say[br]is this is not true.

0:37:11.909,0:37:17.267
There is no universal drama[br]with a role in it for Homo sapiens.

0:37:17.291,0:37:18.972
So --

0:37:18.996,0:37:21.489
CA: I'm going to push back on you[br]just for a minute,

0:37:21.513,0:37:22.707
just from your own book,

0:37:22.731,0:37:24.055
because in "Homo Deus,"

0:37:24.079,0:37:29.138
you give really one of the most coherent[br]and understandable accounts

0:37:29.162,0:37:31.394
about sentience, about consciousness,

0:37:31.418,0:37:34.376
and that unique sort of human skill.

0:37:34.400,0:37:36.893
You point out that it's different[br]from intelligence,

0:37:36.917,0:37:39.251
the intelligence[br]that we're building in machines,

0:37:39.275,0:37:42.933
and that there's actually a lot[br]of mystery around it.

0:37:42.957,0:37:46.334
How can you be sure there's no purpose

0:37:46.358,0:37:50.409
when we don't even understand[br]what this sentience thing is?

0:37:50.433,0:37:53.009
I mean, in your own thinking,[br]isn't there a chance

0:37:53.033,0:37:57.345
that what humans are for[br]is to be the universe's sentient things,

0:37:57.369,0:38:00.792
to be the centers of joy and love[br]and happiness and hope?

0:38:00.816,0:38:03.851
And maybe we can build machines[br]that actually help amplify that,

0:38:03.875,0:38:06.539
even if they're not going to become[br]sentient themselves?

0:38:06.563,0:38:07.714
Is that crazy?

0:38:07.738,0:38:11.221
I kind of found myself hoping that,[br]reading your book.

0:38:11.245,0:38:15.102
YNH: Well, I certainly think that the most[br]interesting question today in science

0:38:15.126,0:38:17.549
is the question[br]of consciousness and the mind.

0:38:17.573,0:38:21.071
We are getting better and better[br]in understanding the brain

0:38:21.095,0:38:22.355
and intelligence,

0:38:22.379,0:38:24.916
but we are not getting much better

0:38:24.940,0:38:27.283
in understanding the mind[br]and consciousness.

0:38:27.307,0:38:30.669
People often confuse intelligence[br]and consciousness,

0:38:30.693,0:38:32.992
especially in places like Silicon Valley,

0:38:33.016,0:38:36.773
which is understandable,[br]because in humans, they go together.

0:38:36.797,0:38:40.376
I mean, intelligence basically[br]is the ability to solve problems.

0:38:40.400,0:38:42.942
Consciousness is the ability[br]to feel things,

0:38:42.966,0:38:48.178
to feel joy and sadness[br]and boredom and pain and so forth.

0:38:48.202,0:38:52.241
In Homo sapiens and all other mammals[br]as well -- it's not unique to humans --

0:38:52.265,0:38:54.912
in all mammals and birds[br]and some other animals,

0:38:54.936,0:38:57.586
intelligence and consciousness[br]go together.

0:38:57.610,0:39:01.188
We often solve problems by feeling things.

0:39:01.212,0:39:02.705
So we tend to confuse them.

0:39:02.729,0:39:04.194
But they are different things.

0:39:04.218,0:39:07.306
What's happening today[br]in places like Silicon Valley

0:39:07.330,0:39:10.956
is that we are creating[br]artificial intelligence

0:39:10.980,0:39:12.802
but not artificial consciousness.

0:39:12.826,0:39:16.206
There has been an amazing development[br]in computer intelligence

0:39:16.230,0:39:17.792
over the last 50 years,

0:39:17.816,0:39:22.017
and exactly zero development[br]in computer consciousness,

0:39:22.041,0:39:25.727
and there is no indication that computers[br]are going to become conscious

0:39:25.751,0:39:28.282
anytime soon.

0:39:28.306,0:39:33.956
So first of all, if there is[br]some cosmic role for consciousness,

0:39:33.980,0:39:36.110
it's not unique to Homo sapiens.

0:39:36.134,0:39:38.453
Cows are conscious, pigs are conscious,

0:39:38.477,0:39:41.310
chimpanzees are conscious,[br]chickens are conscious,

0:39:41.334,0:39:45.187
so if we go that way, first of all,[br]we need to broaden our horizons

0:39:45.211,0:39:49.936
and remember very clearly we are not[br]the only sentient beings on Earth,

0:39:49.960,0:39:51.755
and when it comes to sentience --

0:39:51.779,0:39:55.091
when it comes to intelligence,[br]there is good reason to think

0:39:55.115,0:39:58.411
we are the most intelligent[br]of the whole bunch.

0:39:58.435,0:40:01.009
But when it comes to sentience,

0:40:01.033,0:40:04.191
to say that humans are more[br]sentient than whales,

0:40:04.215,0:40:08.362
or more sentient than baboons[br]or more sentient than cats,

0:40:08.386,0:40:10.680
I see no evidence for that.

0:40:10.704,0:40:14.311
So first step is, you go[br]in that direction, expand.

0:40:14.335,0:40:18.317
And then the second question[br]of what is it for,

0:40:18.341,0:40:20.123
I would reverse it

0:40:20.147,0:40:24.383
and I would say that I don't think[br]sentience is for anything.

0:40:24.407,0:40:28.579
I think we don't need[br]to find our role in the universe.

0:40:28.603,0:40:34.416
The really important thing[br]is to liberate ourselves from suffering.

0:40:34.440,0:40:37.433
What characterizes sentient beings

0:40:37.457,0:40:40.177
in contrast to robots, to stones,

0:40:40.201,0:40:41.384
to whatever,

0:40:41.408,0:40:45.199
is that sentient beings[br]suffer, can suffer,

0:40:45.223,0:40:47.563
and what they should focus on

0:40:47.587,0:40:51.707
is not finding their place[br]in some mysterious cosmic drama.

0:40:51.731,0:40:55.550
They should focus on understanding[br]what suffering is,

0:40:55.574,0:40:58.933
what causes it and how[br]to be liberated from it.

0:40:59.572,0:41:03.049
CA: I know this is a big issue for you,[br]and that was very eloquent.

0:41:03.073,0:41:06.487
We're going to have a blizzard[br]of questions from the audience here,

0:41:06.511,0:41:08.431
and maybe from Facebook as well,

0:41:08.455,0:41:10.128
and maybe some comments as well.

0:41:10.152,0:41:11.948
So let's go quick.

0:41:11.972,0:41:13.402
There's one right here.

0:41:15.052,0:41:17.861
Keep your hands held up[br]at the back if you want the mic,

0:41:17.885,0:41:19.304
and we'll get it back to you.

0:41:19.328,0:41:22.447
Question: In your work, you talk a lot[br]about the fictional stories

0:41:22.471,0:41:23.815
that we accept as truth,

0:41:23.839,0:41:25.556
and we live our lives by it.

0:41:25.580,0:41:28.079
As an individual, knowing that,

0:41:28.103,0:41:31.849
how does it impact the stories[br]that you choose to live your life,

0:41:31.873,0:41:35.613
and do you confuse them[br]with the truth, like all of us?

0:41:36.246,0:41:37.457
YNH: I try not to.

0:41:37.481,0:41:40.249
I mean, for me, maybe the most[br]important question,

0:41:40.273,0:41:42.751
both as a scientist and as a person,

0:41:42.775,0:41:46.650
is how to tell the difference[br]between fiction and reality,

0:41:46.674,0:41:49.270
because reality is there.

0:41:49.294,0:41:51.376
I'm not saying that everything is fiction.

0:41:51.400,0:41:54.452
It's just very difficult for human beings[br]to tell the difference

0:41:54.476,0:41:56.093
between fiction and reality,

0:41:56.117,0:42:01.062
and it has become more and more difficult[br]as history progressed,

0:42:01.086,0:42:03.537
because the fictions[br]that we have created --

0:42:03.561,0:42:06.729
nations and gods and money[br]and corporations --

0:42:06.753,0:42:08.263
they now control the world.

0:42:08.287,0:42:09.464
So just to even think,

0:42:09.488,0:42:12.633
"Oh, this is just all fictional entities[br]that we've created,"

0:42:12.657,0:42:14.104
is very difficult.

0:42:14.128,0:42:16.408
But reality is there.

0:42:17.043,0:42:19.048
For me the best ...

0:42:19.072,0:42:21.195
There are several tests

0:42:21.219,0:42:23.989
to tell the difference[br]between fiction and reality.

0:42:24.013,0:42:27.439
The simplest one, the best one[br]that I can say in short,

0:42:27.463,0:42:29.044
is the test of suffering.

0:42:29.068,0:42:30.621
If it can suffer, it's real.

0:42:31.192,0:42:32.886
If it can't suffer, it's not real.

0:42:32.910,0:42:34.375
A nation cannot suffer.

0:42:34.399,0:42:35.969
That's very, very clear.

0:42:35.993,0:42:37.931
Even if a nation loses a war,

0:42:37.955,0:42:42.020
we say, "Germany suffered a defeat[br]in the First World War,"

0:42:42.044,0:42:43.209
it's a metaphor.

0:42:43.233,0:42:45.790
Germany cannot suffer.[br]Germany has no mind.

0:42:45.814,0:42:47.467
Germany has no consciousness.

0:42:47.491,0:42:51.149
Germans can suffer, yes,[br]but Germany cannot.

0:42:51.173,0:42:54.142
Similarly, when a bank goes bust,

0:42:54.166,0:42:55.937
the bank cannot suffer.

0:42:55.961,0:42:59.352
When the dollar loses its value,[br]the dollar doesn't suffer.

0:42:59.376,0:43:01.626
People can suffer. Animals can suffer.

0:43:01.650,0:43:02.806
This is real.

0:43:02.830,0:43:07.359
So I would start, if you[br]really want to see reality,

0:43:07.383,0:43:09.447
I would go through the door of suffering.

0:43:09.471,0:43:12.425
If you can really understand[br]what suffering is,

0:43:12.449,0:43:14.672
this will give you also the key

0:43:14.696,0:43:16.713
to understand what reality is.

0:43:16.737,0:43:19.520
CA: There's a Facebook question[br]here that connects to this,

0:43:19.544,0:43:22.521
from someone around the world[br]in a language that I cannot read.

0:43:22.545,0:43:24.762
YNH: Oh, it's Hebrew.[br]CA: Hebrew. There you go.

0:43:24.786,0:43:25.848
(Laughter)

0:43:25.872,0:43:27.036
Can you read the name?

0:43:27.060,0:43:28.935
YNH: [??]

0:43:28.959,0:43:30.803
CA: Well, thank you for writing in.

0:43:30.827,0:43:35.382
The question is: "Is the post-truth era[br]really a brand-new era,

0:43:35.406,0:43:39.793
or just another climax or moment[br]in a never-ending trend?

0:43:40.701,0:43:44.030
YNH: Personally, I don't connect[br]with this idea of post-truth.

0:43:44.054,0:43:46.762
My basic reaction as a historian is:

0:43:46.786,0:43:50.681
If this is the era of post-truth,[br]when the hell was the era of truth?

0:43:50.705,0:43:51.956
CA: Right.

0:43:51.980,0:43:53.300
(Laughter)

0:43:53.324,0:43:58.007
YNH: Was it the 1980s, the 1950s,[br]the Middle Ages?

0:43:58.031,0:44:02.423
I mean, we have always lived[br]in an era, in a way, of post-truth.

0:44:02.883,0:44:05.194
CA: But I'd push back on that,

0:44:05.218,0:44:07.888
because I think what people[br]are talking about

0:44:07.912,0:44:14.872
is that there was a world[br]where you had fewer journalistic outlets,

0:44:14.896,0:44:18.544
where there were traditions,[br]that things were fact-checked.

0:44:18.568,0:44:22.513
It was incorporated into the charter[br]of those organizations

0:44:22.537,0:44:24.704
that the truth mattered.

0:44:24.728,0:44:26.477
So if you believe in a reality,

0:44:26.501,0:44:28.724
then what you write is information.

0:44:28.748,0:44:32.569
There was a belief that that information[br]should connect to reality in a real way,

0:44:32.593,0:44:35.554
and if you wrote a headline,[br]it was a serious, earnest attempt

0:44:35.578,0:44:37.881
to reflect something[br]that had actually happened.

0:44:37.905,0:44:39.756
And people didn't always get it right.

0:44:39.780,0:44:41.789
But I think the concern now is you've got

0:44:41.813,0:44:44.131
a technological system[br]that's incredibly powerful

0:44:44.155,0:44:48.325
that, for a while at least,[br]massively amplified anything

0:44:48.349,0:44:51.129
with no attention paid to whether[br]it connected to reality,

0:44:51.153,0:44:54.307
only to whether it connected[br]to clicks and attention,

0:44:54.331,0:44:55.947
and that that was arguably toxic.

0:44:55.971,0:44:58.407
That's a reasonable concern, isn't it?

0:44:58.431,0:45:00.717
YNH: Yeah, it is. I mean,[br]the technology changes,

0:45:00.741,0:45:05.969
and it's now easier to disseminate[br]both truth and fiction and falsehood.

0:45:05.993,0:45:07.996
It goes both ways.

0:45:08.020,0:45:12.599
It's also much easier, though, to spread[br]the truth than it was ever before.

0:45:12.623,0:45:16.308
But I don't think there[br]is anything essentially new

0:45:16.332,0:45:21.052
about this disseminating[br]fictions and errors.

0:45:21.076,0:45:25.110
There is nothing that -- I don't know --[br]Joseph Goebbels, didn't know

0:45:25.134,0:45:30.573
about all this idea of fake[br]news and post-truth.

0:45:30.597,0:45:34.315
He famously said that if you repeat[br]a lie often enough,

0:45:34.339,0:45:36.160
people will think it's the truth,

0:45:36.184,0:45:38.540
and the bigger the lie, the better,

0:45:38.564,0:45:44.587
because people won't even think[br]that something so big can be a lie.

0:45:44.611,0:45:50.269
I think that fake news[br]has been with us for thousands of years.

0:45:50.293,0:45:52.194
Just think of the Bible.

0:45:52.218,0:45:53.605
(Laughter)

0:45:53.629,0:45:54.916
CA: But there is a concern

0:45:54.940,0:45:58.957
that the fake news is associated[br]with tyrannical regimes,

0:45:58.981,0:46:01.558
and when you see an uprise in fake news

0:46:01.582,0:46:06.304
that is a canary in the coal mine[br]that there may be dark times coming.

0:46:08.124,0:46:15.086
YNH: Yeah. I mean, the intentional use[br]of fake news is a disturbing sign.

0:46:15.812,0:46:20.393
But I'm not saying that it's not bad,[br]I'm just saying that it's not new.

0:46:20.820,0:46:23.574
CA: There's a lot of interest[br]on Facebook on this question

0:46:23.598,0:46:28.598
about global governance[br]versus nationalism.

0:46:29.292,0:46:30.800
Question here from Phil Dennis:

0:46:30.824,0:46:34.320
"How do we get people, governments,[br]to relinquish power?

0:46:34.344,0:46:38.259
Is that -- is that --[br]actually, the text is so big

0:46:38.283,0:46:39.823
I can't read the full question.

0:46:39.847,0:46:41.386
But is that a necessity?

0:46:41.410,0:46:44.022
Is it going to take war to get there?

0:46:44.046,0:46:47.736
Sorry Phil -- I mangled your question,[br]but I blame the text right here.

0:46:47.760,0:46:49.860
YNH: One option[br]that some people talk about

0:46:49.884,0:46:54.623
is that only a catastrophe[br]can shake humankind

0:46:54.647,0:46:59.911
and open the path to a real system[br]of global governance,

0:46:59.935,0:47:04.083
and they say that we can't do it[br]before the catastrophe,

0:47:04.107,0:47:06.908
but we need to start[br]laying the foundations

0:47:06.932,0:47:09.432
so that when the disaster strikes,

0:47:09.456,0:47:11.638
we can react quickly.

0:47:11.662,0:47:15.662
But people will just not have[br]the motivation to do such a thing

0:47:15.686,0:47:17.698
before the disaster strikes.

0:47:17.722,0:47:19.987
Another thing that I would emphasize

0:47:20.011,0:47:25.065
is that anybody who is really[br]interested in global governance

0:47:25.089,0:47:27.990
should always make it very, very clear

0:47:28.014,0:47:34.598
that it doesn't replace or abolish[br]local identities and communities,

0:47:34.622,0:47:37.578
that it should come both as --

0:47:37.602,0:47:40.909
It should be part of a single package.

0:47:40.933,0:47:44.311
CA: I want to hear more on this,

0:47:44.335,0:47:47.388
because the very words "global governance"

0:47:47.412,0:47:52.001
are almost the epitome of evil[br]in the mindset of a lot of people

0:47:52.025,0:47:53.351
on the alt-right right now.

0:47:53.375,0:47:56.329
It just seems scary, remote, distant,[br]and it has let them down,

0:47:56.353,0:48:00.469
and so globalists,[br]global governance -- no, go away!

0:48:00.493,0:48:04.175
And many view the election[br]as the ultimate poke in the eye

0:48:04.199,0:48:05.677
to anyone who believes in that.

0:48:05.701,0:48:09.252
So how do we change the narrative

0:48:09.276,0:48:12.251
so that it doesn't seem[br]so scary and remote?

0:48:12.275,0:48:15.019
Build more on this idea[br]of it being compatible

0:48:15.043,0:48:17.664
with local identity, local communities.

0:48:17.688,0:48:20.288
YNH: Well, I think again we should start

0:48:20.312,0:48:23.444
really with the biological realities

0:48:23.468,0:48:25.479
of Homo sapiens.

0:48:25.503,0:48:29.621
And biology tells us two things[br]about Homo sapiens

0:48:29.645,0:48:31.902
which are very relevant to this issue:

0:48:31.926,0:48:34.955
first of all, that we are[br]completely dependent

0:48:34.979,0:48:37.574
on the ecological system around us,

0:48:37.598,0:48:41.057
and that today we are talking[br]about a global system.

0:48:41.081,0:48:42.438
You cannot escape that.

0:48:42.462,0:48:46.084
And at the same time, biology tells us[br]about Homo sapiens

0:48:46.108,0:48:48.355
that we are social animals,

0:48:48.379,0:48:53.016
but that we are social[br]on a very, very local level.

0:48:53.040,0:48:56.585
It's just a simple fact of humanity

0:48:56.609,0:49:01.406
that we cannot have intimate familiarity

0:49:01.430,0:49:05.305
with more than about 150 individuals.

0:49:05.329,0:49:09.626
The size of the natural group,

0:49:09.650,0:49:12.752
the natural community of Homo sapiens,

0:49:12.776,0:49:16.120
is not more than 150 individuals,

0:49:16.144,0:49:22.543
and everything beyond that is really[br]based on all kinds of imaginary stories

0:49:22.567,0:49:24.614
and large-scale institutions,

0:49:24.638,0:49:29.014
and I think that we can find a way,

0:49:29.038,0:49:33.608
again, based on a biological[br]understanding of our species,

0:49:33.632,0:49:35.714
to weave the two together

0:49:35.738,0:49:38.814
and to understand that today[br]in the 21st century,

0:49:38.838,0:49:44.374
we need both the global level[br]and the local community.

0:49:44.398,0:49:46.415
And I would go even further than that

0:49:46.439,0:49:49.762
and say that it starts[br]with the body itself.

0:49:50.500,0:49:54.842
The feelings that people today have[br]of alienation and loneliness

0:49:54.866,0:49:58.082
and not finding their place in the world,

0:49:58.106,0:50:03.835
I would think that the chief problem[br]is not global capitalism.

0:50:04.285,0:50:07.311
The chief problem is that over[br]the last hundred years,

0:50:07.335,0:50:11.039
people have been becoming disembodied,

0:50:11.063,0:50:14.222
have been distancing themselves[br]from their body.

0:50:14.246,0:50:17.142
As a hunter-gatherer or even as a peasant,

0:50:17.166,0:50:21.364
to survive, you need to be[br]constantly in touch

0:50:21.388,0:50:23.571
with your body and with your senses,

0:50:23.595,0:50:24.776
every moment.

0:50:24.800,0:50:26.947
If you go to the forest[br]to look for mushrooms

0:50:26.971,0:50:29.348
and you don't pay attention[br]to what you hear,

0:50:29.372,0:50:31.248
to what you smell, to what you taste,

0:50:31.272,0:50:32.423
you're dead.

0:50:32.447,0:50:34.598
So you must be very connected.

0:50:34.622,0:50:39.218
In the last hundred years,[br]people are losing their ability

0:50:39.242,0:50:42.114
to be in touch with their body[br]and their senses,

0:50:42.138,0:50:44.324
to hear, to smell, to feel.

0:50:44.348,0:50:47.474
More and more attention goes to screens,

0:50:47.498,0:50:49.018
to what is happening elsewhere,

0:50:49.042,0:50:50.263
some other time.

0:50:50.287,0:50:52.718
This, I think, is the deep reason

0:50:52.742,0:50:56.636
for the feelings of alienation[br]and loneliness and so forth,

0:50:56.660,0:50:59.162
and therefore part of the solution

0:50:59.186,0:51:03.450
is not to bring back[br]some mass nationalism,

0:51:03.474,0:51:07.598
but also reconnect with our own bodies,

0:51:07.622,0:51:10.885
and if you are back[br]in touch with your body,

0:51:10.909,0:51:14.079
you will feel much more at home[br]in the world also.

0:51:14.103,0:51:17.788
CA: Well, depending on how things go,[br]we may all be back in the forest soon.

0:51:17.812,0:51:20.161
We're going to have[br]one more question in the room

0:51:20.185,0:51:21.688
and one more on Facebook.

0:51:21.712,0:51:25.093
Question: Hello. I'm from Ghana,[br]West Africa, and my question is:

0:51:25.117,0:51:29.719
I'm wondering how do you present[br]and justify the idea of global governance

0:51:29.743,0:51:32.754
to countries that have been[br]historically disenfranchised

0:51:32.778,0:51:34.823
by the effects of globalization,

0:51:34.847,0:51:37.593
and also, if we're talking about[br]global governance,

0:51:37.617,0:51:41.241
it sounds to me like it will definitely[br]come from a very Westernized idea

0:51:41.265,0:51:43.439
of what the "global"[br]is supposed to look like.

0:51:43.463,0:51:46.753
So how do we present and justify[br]that idea of global

0:51:46.777,0:51:49.770
versus wholly nationalist

0:51:49.794,0:51:53.129
to people in countries like Ghana[br]and Nigeria and Togo

0:51:53.153,0:51:55.329
and other countries like that?

0:51:56.131,0:52:02.545
YNH: I would start by saying[br]that history is extremely unfair,

0:52:02.569,0:52:06.491
and that we should realize that.

0:52:07.004,0:52:10.053
Many of the countries that suffered most

0:52:10.077,0:52:14.216
from the last 200 years of globalization

0:52:14.240,0:52:16.200
and imperialism and industrialization

0:52:16.224,0:52:21.934
are exactly the countries[br]which are also most likely to suffer most

0:52:21.958,0:52:24.747
from the next wave.

0:52:24.771,0:52:28.765
And we should be very,[br]very clear about that.

0:52:29.477,0:52:32.528
If we don't have a global governance,

0:52:32.552,0:52:35.755
and if we suffer from climate change,

0:52:35.779,0:52:38.036
from technological disruptions,

0:52:38.060,0:52:41.661
the worst suffering will not be in the US.

0:52:41.685,0:52:46.781
The worst suffering will be in Ghana,[br]will be in Sudan, will be in Syria,

0:52:46.805,0:52:49.542
will be in Bangladesh,[br]will be in those places.

0:52:49.566,0:52:55.602
So I think those countries[br]have an even greater incentive

0:52:55.626,0:53:00.353
to do something about[br]the next wave of disruption,

0:53:00.377,0:53:02.902
whether it's ecological[br]or whether it's technological.

0:53:02.926,0:53:05.772
Again, if you think about[br]technological disruption,

0:53:05.796,0:53:10.412
so if AI and 3D printers and robots[br]will take the jobs

0:53:10.436,0:53:12.805
from billions of people,

0:53:12.829,0:53:15.954
I worry far less about the Swedes

0:53:15.978,0:53:19.583
than about the people in Ghana[br]or in Bangladesh.

0:53:19.607,0:53:24.835
And therefore,[br]because history is so unfair

0:53:24.859,0:53:29.205
and the results of a calamity

0:53:29.229,0:53:31.597
will not be shared equally[br]between everybody,

0:53:31.621,0:53:36.054
as usual, the rich[br]will be able to get away

0:53:36.078,0:53:39.550
from the worst consequences[br]of climate change

0:53:39.574,0:53:42.419
in a way that the poor[br]will not be able to.

0:53:43.347,0:53:46.755
CA: And here's a great question[br]from Cameron Taylor on Facebook:

0:53:46.779,0:53:48.900
"At the end of 'Sapiens,'"

0:53:48.924,0:53:50.987
you said we should be asking the question,

0:53:51.011,0:53:53.367
'What do we want to want?'

0:53:53.391,0:53:56.378
Well, what do you think[br]we should want to want?"

0:53:56.402,0:53:59.933
YNH: I think we should want[br]to want to know the truth,

0:53:59.957,0:54:02.607
to understand reality.

0:54:03.207,0:54:08.321
Mostly what we want is to change reality,

0:54:08.345,0:54:12.063
to fit it to our own desires,[br]to our own wishes,

0:54:12.087,0:54:15.807
and I think we should first[br]want to understand it.

0:54:15.831,0:54:19.595
If you look at the long-term[br]trajectory of history,

0:54:19.619,0:54:22.355
what you see is that[br]for thousands of years

0:54:22.379,0:54:25.715
we humans have been gaining[br]control of the world outside us

0:54:25.739,0:54:29.233
and trying to shape it[br]to fit our own desires.

0:54:29.257,0:54:32.445
And we've gained control[br]of the other animals,

0:54:32.469,0:54:34.000
of the rivers, of the forests,

0:54:34.024,0:54:37.517
and reshaped them completely,

0:54:37.541,0:54:40.902
causing an ecological destruction

0:54:40.926,0:54:44.104
without making ourselves satisfied.

0:54:44.128,0:54:47.930
So the next step[br]is we turn our gaze inwards,

0:54:47.954,0:54:52.502
and we say OK, getting control[br]of the world outside us

0:54:52.526,0:54:54.390
did not really make us satisfied.

0:54:54.414,0:54:57.113
Let's now try to gain control[br]of the world inside us.

0:54:57.137,0:54:59.300
This is the really big project

0:54:59.324,0:55:03.620
of science and technology[br]and industry in the 21st century --

0:55:03.644,0:55:07.166
to try and gain control[br]of the world inside us,

0:55:07.190,0:55:12.113
to learn how to engineer and produce[br]bodies and brains and minds.

0:55:12.137,0:55:16.779
These are likely to be the main[br]products of the 21st century economy.

0:55:16.803,0:55:20.624
When people think about the future,[br]very often they think in terms,

0:55:20.648,0:55:24.595
"Oh, I want to gain control[br]of my body and of my brain."

0:55:24.619,0:55:27.429
And I think that's very dangerous.

0:55:27.453,0:55:30.719
If we've learned anything[br]from our previous history,

0:55:30.743,0:55:34.656
it's that yes, we gain[br]the power to manipulate,

0:55:34.680,0:55:37.470
but because we didn't really[br]understand the complexity

0:55:37.494,0:55:39.299
of the ecological system,

0:55:39.323,0:55:43.013
we are now facing an ecological meltdown.

0:55:43.037,0:55:48.443
And if we now try to reengineer[br]the world inside us

0:55:48.467,0:55:50.599
without really understanding it,

0:55:50.623,0:55:54.939
especially without understanding[br]the complexity of our mental system,

0:55:54.963,0:55:59.623
we might cause a kind of internal[br]ecological disaster,

0:55:59.647,0:56:03.190
and we'll face a kind of mental[br]meltdown inside us.

0:56:04.270,0:56:06.712
CA: Putting all the pieces[br]together here --

0:56:06.736,0:56:09.416
the current politics,[br]the coming technology,

0:56:09.440,0:56:11.590
concerns like the one[br]you've just outlined --

0:56:11.614,0:56:14.709
I mean, it seems like you yourself[br]are in quite a bleak place

0:56:14.733,0:56:16.354
when you think about the future.

0:56:16.378,0:56:17.960
You're pretty worried about it.

0:56:17.984,0:56:19.176
Is that right?

0:56:19.200,0:56:25.888
And if there was one cause for hope,[br]how would you state that?

0:56:25.912,0:56:30.075
YNH: I focus on the most[br]dangerous possibilities

0:56:30.099,0:56:33.120
partly because this is like[br]my job or responsibility

0:56:33.144,0:56:34.925
as a historian or social critic.

0:56:34.949,0:56:39.711
I mean, the industry focuses mainly[br]on the positive sides,

0:56:39.735,0:56:43.096
so it's the job of historians[br]and philosophers and sociologists

0:56:43.120,0:56:47.561
to highlight the more dangerous potential[br]of all these new technologies.

0:56:47.585,0:56:50.068
I don't think any of that is inevitable.

0:56:50.092,0:56:53.131
Technology is never deterministic.

0:56:53.155,0:56:54.872
You can use the same technology

0:56:54.896,0:56:57.887
to create very different[br]kinds of societies.

0:56:57.911,0:56:59.949
If you look at the 20th century,

0:56:59.973,0:57:02.754
so, the technologies[br]of the Industrial Revolution,

0:57:02.778,0:57:05.835
the trains and electricity and all that

0:57:05.859,0:57:08.911
could be used to create[br]a communist dictatorship

0:57:08.935,0:57:11.740
or a fascist regime[br]or a liberal democracy.

0:57:11.764,0:57:14.292
The trains did not tell you[br]what to do with them.

0:57:14.316,0:57:18.768
Similarly, now, artificial intelligence[br]and bioengineering and all of that --

0:57:18.792,0:57:22.306
they don't predetermine a single outcome.

0:57:22.886,0:57:26.063
Humanity can rise up to the challenge,

0:57:26.087,0:57:27.778
and the best example we have

0:57:27.802,0:57:31.542
of humanity rising up[br]to the challenge of a new technology

0:57:31.566,0:57:33.289
is nuclear weapons.

0:57:33.313,0:57:36.322
In the late 1940s, '50s,

0:57:36.346,0:57:38.485
many people were convinced

0:57:38.509,0:57:42.815
that sooner or later the Cold War[br]will end in a nuclear catastrophe,

0:57:42.839,0:57:44.614
destroying human civilization.

0:57:44.638,0:57:46.118
And this did not happen.

0:57:46.142,0:57:52.562
In fact, nuclear weapons prompted[br]humans all over the world

0:57:52.586,0:57:57.327
to change the way that they manage[br]international politics

0:57:57.351,0:57:59.720
to reduce violence.

0:57:59.744,0:58:02.983
And many countries basically took out war

0:58:03.007,0:58:04.881
from their political toolkit.

0:58:04.905,0:58:09.175
They no longer tried to pursue[br]their interests with warfare.

0:58:09.580,0:58:12.850
Not all countries have done so,[br]but many countries have.

0:58:12.874,0:58:16.808
And this is maybe[br]the most important reason

0:58:16.832,0:58:22.934
why international violence[br]declined dramatically since 1945,

0:58:22.958,0:58:26.296
and today, as I said,[br]more people commit suicide

0:58:26.320,0:58:28.527
than are killed in war.

0:58:28.551,0:58:33.380
So this, I think, gives us a good example

0:58:33.404,0:58:37.246
that even the most frightening technology,

0:58:37.270,0:58:39.805
humans can rise up to the challenge

0:58:39.829,0:58:42.852
and actually some good can come out of it.

0:58:42.876,0:58:47.163
The problem is, we have very little[br]margin for error.

0:58:47.187,0:58:49.396
If we don't get it right,

0:58:49.420,0:58:53.091
we might not have[br]a second option to try again.

0:58:54.337,0:58:55.904
CA: That's a very powerful note,

0:58:55.928,0:58:58.733
on which I think we should draw[br]this to a conclusion.

0:58:58.757,0:59:01.868
Before I wrap up, I just want to say[br]one thing to people here

0:59:01.892,0:59:07.438
and to the global TED community[br]watching online, anyone watching online:

0:59:07.462,0:59:10.355
help us with these dialogues.

0:59:10.379,0:59:12.929
If you believe, like we do,

0:59:12.953,0:59:15.933
that we need to find[br]a different kind of conversation,

0:59:15.957,0:59:18.190
now more than ever, help us do it.

0:59:18.214,0:59:20.237
Reach out to other people,

0:59:21.269,0:59:24.009
try and have conversations[br]with people you disagree with,

0:59:24.033,0:59:25.216
understand them,

0:59:25.240,0:59:26.770
pull the pieces together,

0:59:26.794,0:59:30.686
and help us figure out how to take[br]these conversations forward

0:59:30.710,0:59:32.964
so we can make a real contribution

0:59:32.988,0:59:35.733
to what's happening[br]in the world right now.

0:59:35.757,0:59:39.076
I think everyone feels more alive,

0:59:39.100,0:59:41.410
more concerned, more engaged

0:59:41.434,0:59:43.963
with the politics of the moment.

0:59:43.987,0:59:46.441
The stakes do seem quite high,

0:59:46.465,0:59:50.977
so help us respond to it[br]in a wise, wise way.

0:59:51.001,0:59:52.596
Yuval Harari, thank you.

0:59:52.620,0:59:55.928
(Applause)