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Chris Anderson: Hello.
Welcome to this TED Dialogue.

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It's the first of a series
that's going to be done

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in response to the current
political upheaval.

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I don't know about you;

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I've become quite concerned about
the growing divisiveness in this country

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and in the world.

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No one's listening to each other. Right?

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They aren't.

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I mean, it feels like we need
a different kind of conversation,

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one that's based on -- I don't know,
on reason, listening, on understanding,

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on a broader context.

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That's at least what we're going to try
in these TED Dialogues,

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starting today.

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And we couldn't have anyone with us

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who I'd be more excited to kick this off.

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This is a mind right here that thinks
pretty much like no one else

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on the planet, I would hasten to say.

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I'm serious.

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(Yuval Noah Harari laughs)

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I'm serious.

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He synthesizes history
with underlying ideas

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in a way that kind of takes
your breath away.

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So, some of you will know
this book, "Sapiens."

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Has anyone here read "Sapiens"?

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(Applause)

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I mean, I could not put it down.

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The way that he tells the story of mankind

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through big ideas that really make you
think differently --

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it's kind of amazing.

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And here's the follow-up,

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which I think is being published
in the US next week.

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YNH: Yeah, next week.

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CA: "Homo Deus."

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Now, this is the history
of the next hundred years.

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I've had a chance to read it.

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It's extremely dramatic,

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and I daresay, for some people,
quite alarming.

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It's a must-read.

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And honestly, we couldn't have
someone better to help

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make sense of what on Earth
is happening in the world right now.

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So a warm welcome, please,
to Yuval Noah Harari.

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(Applause)

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It's great to be joined by our friends
on Facebook and around the Web.

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Hello, Facebook.

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And all of you, as I start
asking questions of Yuval,

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come up with your own questions,

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and not necessarily about
the political scandal du jour,

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but about the broader understanding
of: Where are we heading?

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You ready? OK, we're going to go.

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So here we are, Yuval:

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New York City, 2017,
there's a new president in power,

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and shock waves rippling around the world.

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What on Earth is happening?

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YNH: I think the basic thing that happened

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is that we have lost our story.

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Humans think in stories,

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and we try to make sense of the world
by telling stories.

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And for the last few decades,

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we had a very simple
and very attractive story

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about what's happening in the world.

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And the story said that,
oh, what's happening is

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that the economy is being globalized,

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politics is being liberalized,

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and the combination of the two
will create paradise on Earth,

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and we just need to keep on
globalizing the economy

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and liberalizing the political system,

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and everything will be wonderful.

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And 2016 is the moment

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when a very large segment,
even of the Western world,

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stopped believing in this story.

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For good or bad reasons --
it doesn't matter.

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People stopped believing in the story,

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and when you don't have a story,
you don't understand what's happening.

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CA: Part of you believes that that story
was actually a very effective story.

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It worked.

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YNH: To some extent, yes.

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According to some measurements,

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we are now in the best time ever

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for humankind.

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Today, for the first time in history,

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more people die from eating too much
than from eating too little,

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which is an amazing achievement.

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(Laughter)

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Also for the first time in history,

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more people die from old age
than from infectious diseases,

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and violence is also down.

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For the first time in history,

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more people commit suicide
than are killed by crime and terrorism

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and war put together.

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Statistically, you are
your own worst enemy.

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At least, of all the people in the world,

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you are most likely
to be killed by yourself --

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(Laughter)

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which is, again,
very good news, compared --

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(Laughter)

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compared to the level of violence
that we saw in previous eras.

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CA: But this process
of connecting the world

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ended up with a large group of people
kind of feeling left out,

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and they've reacted.

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And so we have this bombshell

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that's sort of ripping
through the whole system.

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I mean, what do you make
of what's happened?

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It feels like the old way
that people thought of politics,

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the left-right divide,
has been blown up and replaced.

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How should we think of this?

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YNH: Yeah, the old 20th-century
political model of left versus right

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is now largely irrelevant,

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and the real divide today
is between global and national,

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global or local.

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And you see it again all over the world

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that this is now the main struggle.

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We probably need completely
new political models

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and completely new ways
of thinking about politics.

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In essence, what you can say
is that we now have global ecology,

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we have a global economy
but we have national politics,

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and this doesn't work together.

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This makes the political
system ineffective,

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because it has no control
over the forces that shape our life.

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And you have basically two solutions
to this imbalance:

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either de-globalize the economy
and turn it back into a national economy,

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or globalize the political system.

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CA: So some, I guess
many, liberals out there

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view Trump and his government
as kind of irredeemably bad,

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just awful in every way.

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Do you see any underlying narrative
or political philosophy in there

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that is at least worth understanding?

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How would you articulate that philosophy?

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Is it just the philosophy of nationalism?

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YNH: I think the underlying
feeling or idea

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is that the political system --
something is broken there.

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It doesn't empower
the ordinary person anymore.

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It doesn't care so much
about the ordinary person anymore,

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and I think this diagnosis
of the political disease is correct.

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With regard to the answers,
I am far less certain.

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I think what we are seeing
is the immediate human reaction:

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if something doesn't work, let's go back.

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And you see it all over the world,

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that people, almost nobody
in the political system today,

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has any future-oriented vision
of where humankind is going.

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Almost everywhere,
you see retrograde vision:

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"Let's make America great again,"

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like it was great -- I don't know --
in the '50s, in the '80s, sometime,

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let's go back there.

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And you go to Russia
a hundred years after Lenin,

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Putin's vision for the future

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is basically, ah, let's go back
to the Tsarist empire.

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And in Israel, where I come from,

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the hottest political vision
of the present is:

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"Let's build the temple again."

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So let's go back 2,000 years backwards.

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So people are thinking
sometime in the past we've lost it,

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and sometimes in the past, it's like
you've lost your way in the city,

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and you say OK, let's go back
to the point where I felt secure

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and start again.

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I don't think this can work,

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but a lot of people,
this is their gut instinct.

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CA: But why couldn't it work?

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"America First" is a very
appealing slogan in many ways.

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Patriotism is, in many ways,
a very noble thing.

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It's played a role
in promoting cooperation

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among large numbers of people.

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Why couldn't you have a world
organized in countries,

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all of which put themselves first?

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YNH: For many centuries,
even thousands of years,

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patriotism worked quite well.

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Of course, it led to wars an so forth,

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but we shouldn't focus
too much on the bad.

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There are also many,
many positive things about patriotism,

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and the ability to have
a large number of people

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care about each other,

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sympathize with one another,

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and come together for collective action.

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If you go back to the first nations,

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so, thousands of years ago,

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the people who lived along
the Yellow River in China --

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it was many, many different tribes

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and they all depended on the river
for survival and for prosperity,

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but all of them also suffered
from periodical floods

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and periodical droughts.

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And no tribe could really do
anything about it,

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because each of them controlled
just a tiny section of the river.

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And then in a long
and complicated process,

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the tribes coalesced together
to form the Chinese nation,

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which controlled the entire Yellow River

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and had the ability to bring
hundreds of thousands of people together

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to build dams and canals
and regulate the river

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and prevent the worst floods and droughts

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and raise the level
of prosperity for everybody.

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And this worked in many places
around the world.

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But in the 21st century,

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technology is changing all that
in a fundamental way.

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We are now living -- all people
in the world --

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are living alongside the same cyber river,

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and no single nation can regulate
this river by itself.

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We are all living together
on a single planet,

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which is threatened by our own actions,

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and if you don't have some kind
of global cooperation,

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nationalism is just not on the right level
to tackle the problems,

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whether it's climate change
or whether it's technological disruption.

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CA: So it was a beautiful idea

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in a world where most of the action,
most of the issues,

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took place on national scale,

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but your argument is that the issues
that matter most today

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no longer take place on a national scale
but on a global scale.

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YNH: Exactly. All the major problems
of the world today

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are global in essence,

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and they cannot be solved

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unless through some kind
of global cooperation.

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It's not just climate change,

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which is, like, the most obvious
example people give.

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I think more in terms
of technological disruption.

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If you think about, for example,
artificial intelligence,

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over the next 20, 30 years

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pushing hundreds of millions of people
out of the job market --

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this is a problem on a global level.

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It will disrupt the economy
of all the countries.

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And similarly, if you think
about, say, bioengineering

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and people being afraid of conducting,

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I don't know, genetic engineering
research in humans,

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it won't help if just
a single country, let's say the US,

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outlaws all genetic experiments in humans,

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but China or North Korea
continues to do it.

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So the US cannot solve it by itself,

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and very quickly, the pressure on the US
to do the same will be immense

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because we are talking about
high-risk, high-gain technologies.

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If somebody else is doing it,
I can't allow myself to remain behind.

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The only way to have regulations,
effective regulations,

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on things like genetic engineering,

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is to have global regulations.

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If you just have national regulations,
nobody would like to stay behind.

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CA: So this is really interesting.

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It seems to me that this may be one key

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to provoking at least
a constructive conversation

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between the different sides here,

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because I think everyone can agree
that the start point

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of a lot of the anger
that's propelled us to where we are

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is because of the legitimate
concerns about job loss.

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Work is gone, a traditional
way of life has gone,

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and it's no wonder
that people are furious about that.

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And in general, they have blamed
globalism, global elites,

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for doing this to them
without asking their permission,

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and that seems like
a legitimate complaint.

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But what I hear you saying
is that -- so a key question is:

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What is the real cause of job loss,
both now and going forward?

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To the extent that it's about globalism,

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then the right response,
yes, is to shut down borders

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and keep people out
and change trade agreements and so forth.

248
00:12:46,031 --> 00:12:47,387
But you're saying, I think,

249
00:12:47,411 --> 00:12:52,202
that actually the bigger cause of job loss
is not going to be that at all.

250
00:12:52,226 --> 00:12:55,940
It's going to originate
in technological questions,

251
00:12:55,964 --> 00:12:57,976
and we have no chance of solving that

252
00:12:58,000 --> 00:13:00,095
unless we operate as a connected world.

253
00:13:00,119 --> 00:13:01,638
YNH: Yeah, I think that,

254
00:13:01,662 --> 00:13:04,903
I don't know about the present,
but looking to the future,

255
00:13:04,927 --> 00:13:08,004
it's not the Mexicans or Chinese
who will take the jobs

256
00:13:08,028 --> 00:13:09,595
from the people in Pennsylvania,

257
00:13:09,619 --> 00:13:11,362
it's the robots and algorithms.

258
00:13:11,386 --> 00:13:15,570
So unless you plan to build a big wall
on the border of California --

259
00:13:15,594 --> 00:13:16,728
(Laughter)

260
00:13:16,752 --> 00:13:20,443
the wall on the border with Mexico
is going to be very ineffective.

261
00:13:20,467 --> 00:13:26,815
And I was struck when I watched
the debates before the election,

262
00:13:26,839 --> 00:13:32,576
I was struck that certainly Trump
did not even attempt to frighten people

263
00:13:32,600 --> 00:13:35,176
by saying the robots will take your jobs.

264
00:13:35,200 --> 00:13:37,499
Now even if it's not true,
it doesn't matter.

265
00:13:37,523 --> 00:13:41,041
It could have been an extremely
effective way of frightening people --

266
00:13:41,065 --> 00:13:42,066
(Laughter)

267
00:13:42,090 --> 00:13:43,251
and galvanizing people:

268
00:13:43,275 --> 00:13:44,884
"The robots will take your jobs!"

269
00:13:44,908 --> 00:13:46,263
And nobody used that line.

270
00:13:46,287 --> 00:13:48,979
And it made me afraid,

271
00:13:49,003 --> 00:13:53,051
because it meant
that no matter what happens

272
00:13:53,075 --> 00:13:55,221
in universities and laboratories,

273
00:13:55,245 --> 00:13:58,010
and there, there is already
an intense debate about it,

274
00:13:58,034 --> 00:14:02,128
but in the mainstream political system
and among the general public,

275
00:14:02,152 --> 00:14:04,262
people are just unaware

276
00:14:04,286 --> 00:14:08,796
that there could be an immense
technological disruption --

277
00:14:08,820 --> 00:14:12,942
not in 200 years,
but in 10, 20, 30 years --

278
00:14:12,966 --> 00:14:15,536
and we have to do something about it now,

279
00:14:15,560 --> 00:14:21,836
partly because most of what we teach
children today in school or in college

280
00:14:21,860 --> 00:14:27,861
is going to be completely irrelevant
to the job market of 2040, 2050.

281
00:14:27,885 --> 00:14:31,243
So it's not something we'll need
to think about in 2040.

282
00:14:31,267 --> 00:14:34,860
We need to think today
what to teach the young people.

283
00:14:34,884 --> 00:14:37,537
CA: Yeah, no, absolutely.

284
00:14:38,595 --> 00:14:42,512
You've often written about
moments in history

285
00:14:42,536 --> 00:14:49,395
where humankind has ...
entered a new era, unintentionally.

286
00:14:49,806 --> 00:14:52,674
Decisions have been made,
technologies have been developed,

287
00:14:52,698 --> 00:14:55,069
and suddenly the world has changed,

288
00:14:55,093 --> 00:14:57,560
possibly in a way
that's worse for everyone.

289
00:14:57,584 --> 00:14:59,659
So one of the examples
you give in "Sapiens"

290
00:14:59,683 --> 00:15:01,774
is just the whole agricultural revolution,

291
00:15:01,798 --> 00:15:05,352
which, for an actual person
tilling the fields,

292
00:15:05,376 --> 00:15:08,556
they just picked up a 12-hour
backbreaking workday

293
00:15:08,580 --> 00:15:14,828
instead of six hours in the jungle
and a much more interesting lifestyle.

294
00:15:14,852 --> 00:15:15,894
(Laughter)

295
00:15:15,918 --> 00:15:19,107
So are we at another possible
phase change here,

296
00:15:19,131 --> 00:15:23,619
where we kind of sleepwalk into a future
that none of us actually wants?

297
00:15:24,058 --> 00:15:26,791
YNH: Yes, very much so.

298
00:15:26,815 --> 00:15:28,652
During the agricultural revolution,

299
00:15:28,676 --> 00:15:33,096
what happened is that immense
technological and economic revolution

300
00:15:33,120 --> 00:15:35,985
empowered the human collective,

301
00:15:36,009 --> 00:15:38,962
but when you look at actual
individual lives,

302
00:15:38,986 --> 00:15:42,480
the life of a tiny elite
became much better,

303
00:15:42,504 --> 00:15:46,742
and the lives of the majority of people
became considerably worse.

304
00:15:46,766 --> 00:15:49,471
And this can happen again
in the 21st century.

305
00:15:49,495 --> 00:15:54,361
No doubt the new technologies
will empower the human collective.

306
00:15:54,385 --> 00:15:57,105
But we may end up again

307
00:15:57,129 --> 00:16:01,586
with a tiny elite reaping
all the benefits, taking all the fruits,

308
00:16:01,610 --> 00:16:05,796
and the masses of the population
finding themselves worse

309
00:16:05,820 --> 00:16:07,121
than they were before,

310
00:16:07,145 --> 00:16:09,933
certainly much worse than this tiny elite.

311
00:16:10,657 --> 00:16:13,312
CA: And those elites
might not even be human elites.

312
00:16:13,336 --> 00:16:15,093
They might be cyborgs or --

313
00:16:15,117 --> 00:16:17,324
YNH: Yeah, they could be
enhanced super humans.

314
00:16:17,348 --> 00:16:18,603
They could be cyborgs.

315
00:16:18,627 --> 00:16:20,984
They could be completely
nonorganic elites.

316
00:16:21,008 --> 00:16:23,536
They could even be
non-conscious algorithms.

317
00:16:23,560 --> 00:16:28,471
What we see now in the world
is authority shifting away

318
00:16:28,495 --> 00:16:30,764
from humans to algorithms.

319
00:16:30,788 --> 00:16:34,312
More and more decisions --
about personal lives,

320
00:16:34,336 --> 00:16:37,008
about economic matters,
about political matters --

321
00:16:37,032 --> 00:16:39,511
are actually being taken by algorithms.

322
00:16:39,535 --> 00:16:42,169
If you ask the bank for a loan,

323
00:16:42,193 --> 00:16:46,890
chances are your fate is decided
by an algorithm, not by a human being.

324
00:16:46,914 --> 00:16:53,101
And the general impression
is that maybe Homo sapiens just lost it.

325
00:16:53,125 --> 00:16:57,685
The world is so complicated,
there is so much data,

326
00:16:57,709 --> 00:17:00,263
things are changing so fast,

327
00:17:00,287 --> 00:17:03,888
that this thing that evolved
on the African savanna

328
00:17:03,912 --> 00:17:05,619
tens of thousands of years ago --

329
00:17:05,643 --> 00:17:09,140
to cope with a particular environment,

330
00:17:09,164 --> 00:17:12,648
a particular volume
of information and data --

331
00:17:12,672 --> 00:17:17,008
it just can't handle the realities
of the 21st century,

332
00:17:17,032 --> 00:17:19,929
and the only thing
that may be able to handle it

333
00:17:19,953 --> 00:17:22,025
is big-data algorithms.

334
00:17:22,049 --> 00:17:28,230
So no wonder more and more authority
is shifting from us to the algorithms.

335
00:17:28,857 --> 00:17:32,706
CA: So we're in New York City
for the first of a series of TED Dialogues

336
00:17:32,730 --> 00:17:35,027
with Yuval Harari,

337
00:17:35,051 --> 00:17:38,895
and there's a Facebook Live
audience out there.

338
00:17:38,919 --> 00:17:40,570
We're excited to have you with us.

339
00:17:40,594 --> 00:17:42,696
We'll start coming
to some of your questions

340
00:17:42,720 --> 00:17:44,434
and questions of people in the room

341
00:17:44,458 --> 00:17:45,623
in just a few minutes,

342
00:17:45,647 --> 00:17:47,611
so have those coming.

343
00:17:47,635 --> 00:17:51,532
Yuval, if you're going
to make the argument

344
00:17:51,556 --> 00:17:57,691
that we need to get past nationalism
because of the coming technological ...

345
00:17:59,218 --> 00:18:01,059
danger, in a way,

346
00:18:01,083 --> 00:18:03,028
presented by so much of what's happening

347
00:18:03,052 --> 00:18:05,495
we've got to have
a global conversation about this.

348
00:18:05,519 --> 00:18:08,947
Trouble is, it's hard to get people
really believing that, I don't know,

349
00:18:08,971 --> 00:18:11,132
AI really is an imminent
threat, and so forth.

350
00:18:11,156 --> 00:18:13,882
The things that people,
some people at least,

351
00:18:13,906 --> 00:18:15,941
care about much more immediately, perhaps,

352
00:18:15,965 --> 00:18:17,549
is climate change,

353
00:18:17,573 --> 00:18:22,466
perhaps other issues like refugees,
nuclear weapons, and so forth.

354
00:18:22,490 --> 00:18:27,536
Would you argue that where
we are right now

355
00:18:27,560 --> 00:18:31,109
that somehow those issues
need to be dialed up?

356
00:18:31,133 --> 00:18:33,293
You've talked about climate change,

357
00:18:33,317 --> 00:18:36,973
but Trump has said
he doesn't believe in that.

358
00:18:36,997 --> 00:18:39,436
So in a way, your most powerful argument,

359
00:18:39,460 --> 00:18:42,206
you can't actually use to make this case.

360
00:18:42,230 --> 00:18:44,416
YNH: Yeah, I think with climate change,

361
00:18:44,440 --> 00:18:48,147
at first sight, it's quite surprising

362
00:18:48,171 --> 00:18:50,675
that there is a very close correlation

363
00:18:50,699 --> 00:18:54,021
between nationalism and climate change.

364
00:18:54,045 --> 00:18:58,632
I mean, almost always, the people
who deny climate change are nationalists.

365
00:18:58,656 --> 00:19:00,737
And at first sight, you think: Why?

366
00:19:00,761 --> 00:19:01,914
What's the connection?

367
00:19:01,938 --> 00:19:04,724
Why don't you have socialists
denying climate change?

368
00:19:04,748 --> 00:19:07,099
But then, when you think
about it, it's obvious --

369
00:19:07,123 --> 00:19:10,867
because nationalism has no solution
to climate change.

370
00:19:10,891 --> 00:19:14,087
If you want to be a nationalist
in the 21st century,

371
00:19:14,111 --> 00:19:15,983
you have to deny the problem.

372
00:19:16,007 --> 00:19:20,494
If you accept the reality of the problem,
then you must accept that, yes,

373
00:19:20,518 --> 00:19:23,294
there is still room in the world
for patriotism,

374
00:19:23,318 --> 00:19:27,469
there is still room in the world
for having special loyalties

375
00:19:27,493 --> 00:19:32,127
and obligations towards your own people,
towards your own country.

376
00:19:32,151 --> 00:19:35,971
I don't think anybody is really
thinking of abolishing that.

377
00:19:35,995 --> 00:19:38,996
But in order to confront climate change,

378
00:19:39,020 --> 00:19:43,231
we need additional loyalties
and commitments

379
00:19:43,255 --> 00:19:45,260
to a level beyond the nation.

380
00:19:45,284 --> 00:19:47,727
And that should not be impossible,

381
00:19:47,751 --> 00:19:51,443
because people can have
several layers of loyalty.

382
00:19:51,467 --> 00:19:53,871
You can be loyal to your family

383
00:19:53,895 --> 00:19:55,408
and to your community

384
00:19:55,432 --> 00:19:56,761
and to your nation,

385
00:19:56,785 --> 00:20:00,413
so why can't you also be loyal
to humankind as a whole?

386
00:20:00,437 --> 00:20:03,836
Of course, there are occasions
when it becomes difficult,

387
00:20:03,860 --> 00:20:05,643
what to put first,

388
00:20:05,667 --> 00:20:07,490
but, you know, life is difficult.

389
00:20:07,514 --> 00:20:08,665
Handle it.

390
00:20:08,689 --> 00:20:11,333
(Laughter)

391
00:20:11,357 --> 00:20:15,855
CA: OK, so I would love to get
some questions from the audience here.

392
00:20:15,879 --> 00:20:17,797
We've got a microphone here.

393
00:20:17,821 --> 00:20:21,038
Speak into it, and Facebook,
get them coming, too.

394
00:20:21,062 --> 00:20:24,496
Question: One of the things that has
clearly made a huge difference

395
00:20:24,520 --> 00:20:26,306
in this country and other countries

396
00:20:26,330 --> 00:20:28,544
is the income distribution inequality,

397
00:20:28,568 --> 00:20:32,782
the dramatic change
in income distribution in the US

398
00:20:32,806 --> 00:20:34,508
from what it was 50 years ago,

399
00:20:34,532 --> 00:20:35,683
and around the world.

400
00:20:35,707 --> 00:20:38,850
Is there anything we can do
to affect that?

401
00:20:38,874 --> 00:20:41,715
Because that gets at a lot
of the underlying causes.

402
00:20:44,283 --> 00:20:49,597
YNH: So far I haven't heard a very
good idea about what to do about it,

403
00:20:49,621 --> 00:20:53,349
again, partly because most ideas
remain on the national level,

404
00:20:53,373 --> 00:20:55,141
and the problem is global.

405
00:20:55,165 --> 00:20:58,143
I mean, one idea that we hear
quite a lot about now

406
00:20:58,167 --> 00:20:59,999
is universal basic income.

407
00:21:00,023 --> 00:21:01,174
But this is a problem.

408
00:21:01,198 --> 00:21:02,850
I mean, I think it's a good start,

409
00:21:02,874 --> 00:21:06,596
but it's a problematic idea because
it's not clear what "universal" is

410
00:21:06,620 --> 00:21:08,461
and it's not clear what "basic" is.

411
00:21:08,485 --> 00:21:11,866
Most people when they speak
about universal basic income,

412
00:21:11,890 --> 00:21:14,675
they actually mean national basic income.

413
00:21:14,699 --> 00:21:16,443
But the problem is global.

414
00:21:16,467 --> 00:21:22,117
Let's say that you have AI and 3D printers
taking away millions of jobs

415
00:21:22,141 --> 00:21:23,297
in Bangladesh,

416
00:21:23,321 --> 00:21:26,569
from all the people who make
my shirts and my shoes.

417
00:21:26,593 --> 00:21:27,899
So what's going to happen?

418
00:21:27,923 --> 00:21:34,462
The US government will levy taxes
on Google and Apple in California,

419
00:21:34,486 --> 00:21:39,067
and use that to pay basic income
to unemployed Bangladeshis?

420
00:21:39,091 --> 00:21:41,727
If you believe that,
you can just as well believe

421
00:21:41,751 --> 00:21:45,414
that Santa Claus will come
and solve the problem.

422
00:21:45,438 --> 00:21:50,564
So unless we have really universal
and not national basic income,

423
00:21:50,588 --> 00:21:53,723
the deep problems
are not going to go away.

424
00:21:53,747 --> 00:21:56,479
And also it's not clear what basic is,

425
00:21:56,503 --> 00:21:59,136
because what are basic human needs?

426
00:21:59,160 --> 00:22:01,970
A thousand years ago,
just food and shelter was enough.

427
00:22:01,994 --> 00:22:05,605
But today, people will say
education is a basic human need,

428
00:22:05,629 --> 00:22:07,202
it should be part of the package.

429
00:22:07,226 --> 00:22:11,005
But how much? Six years?
Twelve years? PhD?

430
00:22:11,029 --> 00:22:12,862
Similarly, with health care,

431
00:22:12,886 --> 00:22:15,571
let's say that in 20, 30, 40 years,

432
00:22:15,595 --> 00:22:19,368
you'll have expensive treatments
that can extend human life

433
00:22:19,392 --> 00:22:21,307
to 120, I don't know.

434
00:22:21,331 --> 00:22:26,522
Will this be part of the basket
of basic income or not?

435
00:22:26,546 --> 00:22:27,975
It's a very difficult problem,

436
00:22:27,999 --> 00:22:34,257
because in a world where people
lose their ability to be employed,

437
00:22:34,281 --> 00:22:37,862
the only thing they are going to get
is this basic income.

438
00:22:37,886 --> 00:22:43,013
So what's part of it is a very,
very difficult ethical question.

439
00:22:43,037 --> 00:22:46,341
CA: There's a bunch of questions
on how the world affords it as well,

440
00:22:46,365 --> 00:22:47,525
who pays.

441
00:22:47,549 --> 00:22:50,361
There's a question here
from Facebook from Lisa Larson:

442
00:22:50,385 --> 00:22:52,960
"How does nationalism in the US now

443
00:22:52,984 --> 00:22:56,399
compare to that between
World War I and World War II

444
00:22:56,423 --> 00:22:57,844
in the last century?"

445
00:22:57,868 --> 00:23:02,316
YNH: Well the good news, with regard
to the dangers of nationalism,

446
00:23:02,340 --> 00:23:06,263
we are in a much better position
than a century ago.

447
00:23:06,287 --> 00:23:08,959
A century ago, 1917,

448
00:23:08,983 --> 00:23:12,116
Europeans were killing
each other by the millions.

449
00:23:12,140 --> 00:23:16,491
In 2016, with Brexit,
as far as I remember,

450
00:23:16,515 --> 00:23:21,752
a single person lost their life,
an MP who was murdered by some extremist.

451
00:23:21,776 --> 00:23:23,309
Just a single person.

452
00:23:23,333 --> 00:23:26,018
I mean, if Brexit was about
British independence,

453
00:23:26,042 --> 00:23:30,793
this is the most peaceful
war of independence in human history.

454
00:23:30,817 --> 00:23:36,606
And let's say that Scotland
will now choose to leave the UK

455
00:23:36,630 --> 00:23:38,806
after Brexit.

456
00:23:38,830 --> 00:23:40,814
So in the 18th century,

457
00:23:40,838 --> 00:23:44,070
if Scotland wanted -- and the Scots
wanted several times --

458
00:23:44,094 --> 00:23:47,627
to break out of the control of London,

459
00:23:47,651 --> 00:23:51,949
the reaction of the government
in London was to send an army up north

460
00:23:51,973 --> 00:23:55,444
to burn down Edinburgh
and massacre the highland tribes.

461
00:23:55,468 --> 00:24:01,024
My guess is that if, in 2018,
the Scots vote for independence,

462
00:24:01,048 --> 00:24:04,457
the London government
will not send an army up north

463
00:24:04,481 --> 00:24:06,084
to burn down Edinburgh.

464
00:24:06,108 --> 00:24:10,375
Very few people are now willing
to kill or be killed

465
00:24:10,399 --> 00:24:13,121
for Scottish or for British independence.

466
00:24:13,145 --> 00:24:18,165
So for all the talk
of the rise of nationalism

467
00:24:18,189 --> 00:24:20,432
and going back to the 1930s,

468
00:24:20,456 --> 00:24:24,231
to the 19th century, in the West at least,

469
00:24:24,255 --> 00:24:30,839
the power of national sentiments
today is far, far smaller

470
00:24:30,863 --> 00:24:32,403
than it was a century ago.

471
00:24:32,427 --> 00:24:36,264
CA: Although some people now,
you hear publicly worrying

472
00:24:36,288 --> 00:24:39,044
about whether that might be shifting,

473
00:24:39,068 --> 00:24:42,466
that there could actually be
outbreaks of violence in the US

474
00:24:42,490 --> 00:24:44,837
depending on how things turn out.

475
00:24:44,861 --> 00:24:46,400
Should we be worried about that,

476
00:24:46,424 --> 00:24:48,490
or do you really think
things have shifted?

477
00:24:48,514 --> 00:24:50,005
YNH: No, we should be worried.

478
00:24:50,029 --> 00:24:51,654
We should be aware of two things.

479
00:24:51,678 --> 00:24:53,315
First of all, don't be hysterical.

480
00:24:53,339 --> 00:24:56,786
We are not back
in the First World War yet.

481
00:24:56,810 --> 00:24:59,750
But on the other hand,
don't be complacent.

482
00:24:59,774 --> 00:25:05,148
We reached from 1917 to 2017,

483
00:25:05,172 --> 00:25:07,354
not by some divine miracle,

484
00:25:07,378 --> 00:25:09,402
but simply by human decisions,

485
00:25:09,426 --> 00:25:12,089
and if we now start making
the wrong decisions,

486
00:25:12,113 --> 00:25:16,598
we could be back
in an analogous situation to 1917

487
00:25:16,622 --> 00:25:18,128
in a few years.

488
00:25:18,152 --> 00:25:20,473
One of the things I know as a historian

489
00:25:20,497 --> 00:25:24,172
is that you should never
underestimate human stupidity.

490
00:25:24,196 --> 00:25:27,079
(Laughter)

491
00:25:27,103 --> 00:25:30,187
It's one of the most powerful
forces in history,

492
00:25:30,211 --> 00:25:32,538
human stupidity and human violence.

493
00:25:32,562 --> 00:25:36,667
Humans do such crazy things
for no obvious reason,

494
00:25:36,691 --> 00:25:38,401
but again, at the same time,

495
00:25:38,425 --> 00:25:42,029
another very powerful force
in human history is human wisdom.

496
00:25:42,053 --> 00:25:43,219
We have both.

497
00:25:43,243 --> 00:25:46,145
CA: We have with us here
moral psychologist Jonathan Haidt,

498
00:25:46,169 --> 00:25:47,792
who I think has a question.

499
00:25:48,871 --> 00:25:50,354
Jonathan Haidt: Thanks, Yuval.

500
00:25:50,378 --> 00:25:52,861
So you seem to be a fan
of global governance,

501
00:25:52,885 --> 00:25:56,405
but when you look at the map of the world
from Transparency International,

502
00:25:56,429 --> 00:25:59,757
which rates the level of corruption
of political institutions,

503
00:25:59,781 --> 00:26:02,861
it's a vast sea of red with little bits
of yellow here and there

504
00:26:02,885 --> 00:26:04,490
for those with good institutions.

505
00:26:04,514 --> 00:26:07,015
So if we were to have
some kind of global governance,

506
00:26:07,039 --> 00:26:09,870
what makes you think it would end up
being more like Denmark

507
00:26:09,894 --> 00:26:11,934
rather than more like Russia or Honduras,

508
00:26:11,958 --> 00:26:13,459
and aren't there alternatives,

509
00:26:13,483 --> 00:26:15,569
such as we did with CFCs?

510
00:26:15,593 --> 00:26:18,700
There are ways to solve global problems
with national governments.

511
00:26:18,724 --> 00:26:20,938
What would world government
actually look like,

512
00:26:20,962 --> 00:26:22,683
and why do you think it would work?

513
00:26:22,707 --> 00:26:26,467
YNH: Well, I don't know
what it would look like.

514
00:26:26,491 --> 00:26:29,543
Nobody still has a model for that.

515
00:26:29,567 --> 00:26:32,195
The main reason we need it

516
00:26:32,219 --> 00:26:36,513
is because many of these issues
are lose-lose situations.

517
00:26:36,537 --> 00:26:39,429
When you have
a win-win situation like trade,

518
00:26:39,453 --> 00:26:42,369
both sides can benefit
from a trade agreement,

519
00:26:42,393 --> 00:26:44,657
then this is something you can work out.

520
00:26:44,681 --> 00:26:47,027
Without some kind of global government,

521
00:26:47,051 --> 00:26:49,905
national governments each
have an interest in doing it.

522
00:26:49,929 --> 00:26:53,900
But when you have a lose-lose situation
like with climate change,

523
00:26:53,924 --> 00:26:55,565
it's much more difficult

524
00:26:55,589 --> 00:27:00,475
without some overarching
authority, real authority.

525
00:27:00,499 --> 00:27:03,261
Now, how to get there
and what would it look like,

526
00:27:03,285 --> 00:27:04,645
I don't know.

527
00:27:04,669 --> 00:27:08,406
And certainly there is no obvious reason

528
00:27:08,430 --> 00:27:10,710
to think that it would look like Denmark,

529
00:27:10,734 --> 00:27:12,322
or that it would be a democracy.

530
00:27:12,346 --> 00:27:14,932
Most likely it wouldn't.

531
00:27:14,956 --> 00:27:20,987
We don't have workable democratic models

532
00:27:21,011 --> 00:27:23,107
for a global government.

533
00:27:23,131 --> 00:27:26,196
So maybe it would look more
like ancient China

534
00:27:26,220 --> 00:27:27,919
than like modern Denmark.

535
00:27:27,943 --> 00:27:33,166
But still, given the dangers
that we are facing,

536
00:27:33,190 --> 00:27:38,310
I think the imperative of having
some kind of real ability

537
00:27:38,334 --> 00:27:42,462
to force through difficult decisions
on the global level

538
00:27:42,486 --> 00:27:46,616
is more important
than almost anything else.

539
00:27:47,591 --> 00:27:49,689
CA: There's a question from Facebook here,

540
00:27:49,713 --> 00:27:51,606
and then we'll get the mic to Andrew.

541
00:27:51,630 --> 00:27:53,826
So, Kat Hebron on Facebook,

542
00:27:53,850 --> 00:27:55,518
calling in from Vail:

543
00:27:55,542 --> 00:27:59,753
"How would developed nations manage
the millions of climate migrants?"

544
00:28:00,818 --> 00:28:02,972
YNH: I don't know.

545
00:28:02,996 --> 00:28:04,888
CA: That's your answer, Kat. (Laughter)

546
00:28:04,912 --> 00:28:07,058
YNH: And I don't think
that they know either.

547
00:28:07,082 --> 00:28:08,876
They'll just deny the problem, maybe.

548
00:28:08,900 --> 00:28:11,925
CA: But immigration, generally,
is another example of a problem

549
00:28:11,949 --> 00:28:14,522
that's very hard to solve
on a nation-by-nation basis.

550
00:28:14,546 --> 00:28:16,016
One nation can shut its doors,

551
00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:18,574
but maybe that stores up
problems for the future.

552
00:28:18,598 --> 00:28:22,470
YNH: Yes, I mean --
it's another very good case,

553
00:28:22,494 --> 00:28:24,723
especially because it's so much easier

554
00:28:24,747 --> 00:28:26,578
to migrate today

555
00:28:26,602 --> 00:28:30,291
than it was in the Middle Ages
or in ancient times.

556
00:28:30,315 --> 00:28:34,778
CA: Yuval, there's a belief
among many technologists, certainly,

557
00:28:34,802 --> 00:28:37,153
that political concerns
are kind of overblown,

558
00:28:37,177 --> 00:28:40,874
that actually, political leaders
don't have that much influence

559
00:28:40,898 --> 00:28:42,064
in the world,

560
00:28:42,088 --> 00:28:46,057
that the real determination of humanity
at this point is by science,

561
00:28:46,081 --> 00:28:47,527
by invention, by companies,

562
00:28:47,551 --> 00:28:51,943
by many things
other than political leaders,

563
00:28:51,967 --> 00:28:54,378
and it's actually very hard
for leaders to do much,

564
00:28:54,402 --> 00:28:56,760
so we're actually worrying
about nothing here.

565
00:28:58,005 --> 00:29:00,241
YNH: Well, first, it should be emphasized

566
00:29:00,265 --> 00:29:05,262
that it's true that political leaders'
ability to do good is very limited,

567
00:29:05,286 --> 00:29:08,329
but their ability to do harm is unlimited.

568
00:29:08,353 --> 00:29:10,953
There is a basic imbalance here.

569
00:29:10,977 --> 00:29:14,545
You can still press the button
and blow everybody up.

570
00:29:14,569 --> 00:29:16,155
You have that kind of ability.

571
00:29:16,179 --> 00:29:19,748
But if you want, for example,
to reduce inequality,

572
00:29:19,772 --> 00:29:21,649
that's very, very difficult.

573
00:29:21,673 --> 00:29:23,069
But to start a war,

574
00:29:23,093 --> 00:29:24,944
you can still do so very easily.

575
00:29:24,968 --> 00:29:28,560
So there is a built-in imbalance
in the political system today

576
00:29:28,584 --> 00:29:30,195
which is very frustrating,

577
00:29:30,219 --> 00:29:35,120
where you cannot do a lot of good
but you can still do a lot of harm.

578
00:29:35,144 --> 00:29:39,288
And this makes the political system
still a very big concern.

579
00:29:39,812 --> 00:29:41,963
CA: So as you look at
what's happening today,

580
00:29:41,987 --> 00:29:43,741
and putting your historian's hat on,

581
00:29:43,765 --> 00:29:47,291
do you look back in history at moments
when things were going just fine

582
00:29:47,315 --> 00:29:52,648
and an individual leader really took
the world or their country backwards?

583
00:29:53,307 --> 00:29:55,936
YNH: There are quite a few examples,

584
00:29:55,960 --> 00:29:58,779
but I should emphasize,
it's never an individual leader.

585
00:29:58,803 --> 00:30:00,437
I mean, somebody put him there,

586
00:30:00,461 --> 00:30:03,744
and somebody allowed him
to continue to be there.

587
00:30:03,768 --> 00:30:07,851
So it's never really just the fault
of a single individual.

588
00:30:07,875 --> 00:30:12,488
There are a lot of people
behind every such individual.

589
00:30:12,512 --> 00:30:15,990
CA: Can we have the microphone
here, please, to Andrew?

590
00:30:19,132 --> 00:30:22,696
Andrew Solomon: You've talked a lot
about the global versus the national,

591
00:30:22,720 --> 00:30:24,346
but increasingly, it seems to me,

592
00:30:24,370 --> 00:30:27,013
the world situation
is in the hands of identity groups.

593
00:30:27,037 --> 00:30:29,347
We look at people within the United States

594
00:30:29,371 --> 00:30:30,998
who have been recruited by ISIS.

595
00:30:31,022 --> 00:30:33,213
We look at these other groups
which have formed

596
00:30:33,237 --> 00:30:35,199
which go outside of national bounds

597
00:30:35,223 --> 00:30:37,384
but still represent
significant authorities.

598
00:30:37,408 --> 00:30:39,836
How are they to be integrated
into the system,

599
00:30:39,860 --> 00:30:43,573
and how is a diverse set of identities
to be made coherent

600
00:30:43,597 --> 00:30:45,935
under either national
or global leadership?

601
00:30:47,380 --> 00:30:50,601
YNH: Well, the problem
of such diverse identities

602
00:30:50,625 --> 00:30:52,681
is a problem from nationalism as well.

603
00:30:53,229 --> 00:30:57,584
Nationalism believes
in a single, monolithic identity,

604
00:30:57,608 --> 00:31:01,724
and exclusive or at least
more extreme versions of nationalism

605
00:31:01,748 --> 00:31:05,317
believe in an exclusive loyalty
to a single identity.

606
00:31:05,341 --> 00:31:08,257
And therefore, nationalism has had
a lot of problems

607
00:31:08,281 --> 00:31:11,157
with people wanting to divide
their identities

608
00:31:11,181 --> 00:31:13,244
between various groups.

609
00:31:13,268 --> 00:31:18,143
So it's not just a problem, say,
for a global vision.

610
00:31:18,540 --> 00:31:22,392
And I think, again, history shows

611
00:31:22,416 --> 00:31:28,543
that you shouldn't necessarily
think in such exclusive terms.

612
00:31:28,567 --> 00:31:31,975
If you think that there is just
a single identity for a person,

613
00:31:31,999 --> 00:31:37,039
"I am just X, that's it, I can't be
several things, I can be just that,"

614
00:31:37,063 --> 00:31:39,159
that's the start of the problem.

615
00:31:39,183 --> 00:31:41,971
You have religions, you have nations

616
00:31:41,995 --> 00:31:45,177
that sometimes demand exclusive loyalty,

617
00:31:45,201 --> 00:31:46,932
but it's not the only option.

618
00:31:46,956 --> 00:31:49,338
There are many religions and many nations

619
00:31:49,362 --> 00:31:53,240
that enable you to have
diverse identities at the same time.

620
00:31:53,264 --> 00:31:57,621
CA: But is one explanation
of what's happened in the last year

621
00:31:57,645 --> 00:32:02,825
that a group of people have got
fed up with, if you like,

622
00:32:02,849 --> 00:32:06,016
the liberal elites,
for want of a better term,

623
00:32:06,040 --> 00:32:10,413
obsessing over many, many different
identities and them feeling,

624
00:32:10,437 --> 00:32:14,296
"But what about my identity?
I am being completely ignored here.

625
00:32:14,320 --> 00:32:17,294
And by the way, I thought
I was the majority"?

626
00:32:17,318 --> 00:32:20,299
And that that's actually
sparked a lot of the anger.

627
00:32:20,918 --> 00:32:24,063
YNH: Yeah. Identity is always problematic,

628
00:32:24,087 --> 00:32:28,397
because identity is always based
on fictional stories

629
00:32:28,421 --> 00:32:31,310
that sooner or later collide with reality.

630
00:32:31,890 --> 00:32:33,408
Almost all identities,

631
00:32:33,432 --> 00:32:36,843
I mean, beyond the level
of the basic community

632
00:32:36,867 --> 00:32:38,336
of a few dozen people,

633
00:32:38,360 --> 00:32:40,289
are based on a fictional story.

634
00:32:40,313 --> 00:32:41,954
They are not the truth.

635
00:32:41,978 --> 00:32:43,293
They are not the reality.

636
00:32:43,317 --> 00:32:46,411
It's just a story that people invent
and tell one another

637
00:32:46,435 --> 00:32:47,926
and start believing.

638
00:32:47,950 --> 00:32:53,270
And therefore all identities
are extremely unstable.

639
00:32:53,294 --> 00:32:55,821
They are not a biological reality.

640
00:32:55,845 --> 00:32:57,851
Sometimes nationalists, for example,

641
00:32:57,875 --> 00:33:00,802
think that the nation
is a biological entity.

642
00:33:00,826 --> 00:33:04,439
It's made of the combination
of soil and blood,

643
00:33:04,463 --> 00:33:06,165
creates the nation.

644
00:33:06,189 --> 00:33:09,281
But this is just a fictional story.

645
00:33:09,305 --> 00:33:11,868
CA: Soil and blood
kind of makes a gooey mess.

646
00:33:11,892 --> 00:33:13,714
(Laughter)

647
00:33:13,738 --> 00:33:16,762
YNH: It does, and also
it messes with your mind

648
00:33:16,786 --> 00:33:21,570
when you think too much
that I am a combination of soil and blood.

649
00:33:21,594 --> 00:33:24,461
If you look from a biological perspective,

650
00:33:24,485 --> 00:33:27,963
obviously none of the nations
that exist today

651
00:33:27,987 --> 00:33:30,230
existed 5,000 years ago.

652
00:33:30,254 --> 00:33:34,112
Homo sapiens is a social animal,
that's for sure.

653
00:33:34,136 --> 00:33:36,563
But for millions of years,

654
00:33:36,587 --> 00:33:41,226
Homo sapiens and our hominid ancestors
lived in small communities

655
00:33:41,250 --> 00:33:43,579
of a few dozen individuals.

656
00:33:43,603 --> 00:33:45,730
Everybody knew everybody else.

657
00:33:45,754 --> 00:33:49,775
Whereas modern nations
are imagined communities,

658
00:33:49,799 --> 00:33:52,350
in the sense that I don't even know
all these people.

659
00:33:52,374 --> 00:33:55,222
I come from a relatively
small nation, Israel,

660
00:33:55,246 --> 00:33:57,389
and of eight million Israelis,

661
00:33:57,413 --> 00:33:59,403
I never met most of them.

662
00:33:59,427 --> 00:34:01,735
I will never meet most of them.

663
00:34:01,759 --> 00:34:04,321
They basically exist here.

664
00:34:04,345 --> 00:34:07,094
CA: But in terms of this identity,

665
00:34:07,118 --> 00:34:12,555
this group who feel left out
and perhaps have work taken away,

666
00:34:12,579 --> 00:34:14,873
I mean, in "Homo Deus,"

667
00:34:14,897 --> 00:34:18,008
you actually speak of this group
in one sense expanding,

668
00:34:18,032 --> 00:34:21,654
that so many people
may have their jobs taken away

669
00:34:21,678 --> 00:34:26,058
by technology in some way
that we could end up with

670
00:34:26,082 --> 00:34:29,253
a really large -- I think you call it
a "useless class" --

671
00:34:29,277 --> 00:34:31,380
a class where traditionally,

672
00:34:31,404 --> 00:34:34,135
as viewed by the economy,
these people have no use.

673
00:34:34,159 --> 00:34:35,357
YNH: Yes.

674
00:34:35,381 --> 00:34:38,312
CA: How likely a possibility is that?

675
00:34:38,336 --> 00:34:41,080
Is that something
we should be terrified about?

676
00:34:41,104 --> 00:34:43,763
And can we address it in any way?

677
00:34:43,787 --> 00:34:46,034
YNH: We should think about it
very carefully.

678
00:34:46,058 --> 00:34:49,029
I mean, nobody really knows
what the job market will look like

679
00:34:49,053 --> 00:34:50,743
in 2040, 2050.

680
00:34:50,767 --> 00:34:53,475
There is a chance
many new jobs will appear,

681
00:34:53,499 --> 00:34:55,253
but it's not certain.

682
00:34:55,277 --> 00:34:57,488
And even if new jobs do appear,

683
00:34:57,512 --> 00:34:59,496
it won't necessarily be easy

684
00:34:59,520 --> 00:35:02,519
for a 50-year old unemployed truck driver

685
00:35:02,543 --> 00:35:05,576
made unemployed by self-driving vehicles,

686
00:35:05,600 --> 00:35:09,253
it won't be easy
for an unemployed truck driver

687
00:35:09,277 --> 00:35:14,063
to reinvent himself or herself
as a designer of virtual worlds.

688
00:35:14,087 --> 00:35:18,269
Previously, if you look at the trajectory
of the industrial revolution,

689
00:35:18,293 --> 00:35:22,450
when machines replaced humans
in one type of work,

690
00:35:22,474 --> 00:35:26,755
the solution usually came
from low-skill work

691
00:35:26,779 --> 00:35:29,367
in new lines of business.

692
00:35:29,391 --> 00:35:32,793
So you didn't need any more
agricultural workers,

693
00:35:32,817 --> 00:35:38,231
so people moved to working
in low-skill industrial jobs,

694
00:35:38,255 --> 00:35:41,724
and when this was taken away
by more and more machines,

695
00:35:41,748 --> 00:35:44,718
people moved to low-skill service jobs.

696
00:35:44,742 --> 00:35:48,102
Now, when people say there will
be new jobs in the future,

697
00:35:48,126 --> 00:35:50,555
that humans can do better than AI,

698
00:35:50,579 --> 00:35:52,409
that humans can do better than robots,

699
00:35:52,433 --> 00:35:55,073
they usually think about high-skill jobs,

700
00:35:55,097 --> 00:35:58,968
like software engineers
designing virtual worlds.

701
00:35:58,992 --> 00:36:04,386
Now, I don't see how
an unemployed cashier from Wal-Mart

702
00:36:04,410 --> 00:36:09,033
reinvents herself or himself at 50
as a designer of virtual worlds,

703
00:36:09,057 --> 00:36:10,528
and certainly I don't see

704
00:36:10,552 --> 00:36:14,019
how the millions of unemployed
Bangladeshi textile workers

705
00:36:14,043 --> 00:36:15,654
will be able to do that.

706
00:36:15,678 --> 00:36:17,398
I mean, if they are going to do it,

707
00:36:17,422 --> 00:36:20,778
we need to start teaching
the Bangladeshis today

708
00:36:20,802 --> 00:36:22,556
how to be software designers,

709
00:36:22,580 --> 00:36:23,823
and we are not doing it.

710
00:36:23,847 --> 00:36:26,338
So what will they do in 20 years?

711
00:36:26,362 --> 00:36:30,276
CA: So it feels like you're really
highlighting a question

712
00:36:30,300 --> 00:36:34,483
that's really been bugging me
the last few months more and more.

713
00:36:34,507 --> 00:36:37,362
It's almost a hard question
to ask in public,

714
00:36:37,386 --> 00:36:40,777
but if any mind has some wisdom
to offer in it, maybe it's yours,

715
00:36:40,801 --> 00:36:42,346
so I'm going to ask you:

716
00:36:42,370 --> 00:36:44,248
What are humans for?

717
00:36:45,232 --> 00:36:47,166
YNH: As far as we know, for nothing.

718
00:36:47,190 --> 00:36:48,902
(Laughter)

719
00:36:48,926 --> 00:36:54,452
I mean, there is no great cosmic drama,
some great cosmic plan,

720
00:36:54,476 --> 00:36:57,317
that we have a role to play in.

721
00:36:57,341 --> 00:37:00,365
And we just need to discover
what our role is

722
00:37:00,389 --> 00:37:03,381
and then play it to the best
of our ability.

723
00:37:03,405 --> 00:37:08,383
This has been the story of all religions
and ideologies and so forth,

724
00:37:08,407 --> 00:37:11,885
but as a scientist, the best I can say
is this is not true.

725
00:37:11,909 --> 00:37:17,267
There is no universal drama
with a role in it for Homo sapiens.

726
00:37:17,291 --> 00:37:18,972
So --

727
00:37:18,996 --> 00:37:21,489
CA: I'm going to push back on you
just for a minute,

728
00:37:21,513 --> 00:37:22,707
just from your own book,

729
00:37:22,731 --> 00:37:24,055
because in "Homo Deus,"

730
00:37:24,079 --> 00:37:29,138
you give really one of the most coherent
and understandable accounts

731
00:37:29,162 --> 00:37:31,394
about sentience, about consciousness,

732
00:37:31,418 --> 00:37:34,376
and that unique sort of human skill.

733
00:37:34,400 --> 00:37:36,893
You point out that it's different
from intelligence,

734
00:37:36,917 --> 00:37:39,251
the intelligence
that we're building in machines,

735
00:37:39,275 --> 00:37:42,933
and that there's actually a lot
of mystery around it.

736
00:37:42,957 --> 00:37:46,334
How can you be sure there's no purpose

737
00:37:46,358 --> 00:37:50,409
when we don't even understand
what this sentience thing is?

738
00:37:50,433 --> 00:37:53,009
I mean, in your own thinking,
isn't there a chance

739
00:37:53,033 --> 00:37:57,345
that what humans are for
is to be the universe's sentient things,

740
00:37:57,369 --> 00:38:00,792
to be the centers of joy and love
and happiness and hope?

741
00:38:00,816 --> 00:38:03,851
And maybe we can build machines
that actually help amplify that,

742
00:38:03,875 --> 00:38:06,539
even if they're not going to become
sentient themselves?

743
00:38:06,563 --> 00:38:07,714
Is that crazy?

744
00:38:07,738 --> 00:38:11,221
I kind of found myself hoping that,
reading your book.

745
00:38:11,245 --> 00:38:15,102
YNH: Well, I certainly think that the most
interesting question today in science

746
00:38:15,126 --> 00:38:17,549
is the question
of consciousness and the mind.

747
00:38:17,573 --> 00:38:21,071
We are getting better and better
in understanding the brain

748
00:38:21,095 --> 00:38:22,355
and intelligence,

749
00:38:22,379 --> 00:38:24,916
but we are not getting much better

750
00:38:24,940 --> 00:38:27,283
in understanding the mind
and consciousness.

751
00:38:27,307 --> 00:38:30,669
People often confuse intelligence
and consciousness,

752
00:38:30,693 --> 00:38:32,992
especially in places like Silicon Valley,

753
00:38:33,016 --> 00:38:36,773
which is understandable,
because in humans, they go together.

754
00:38:36,797 --> 00:38:40,376
I mean, intelligence basically
is the ability to solve problems.

755
00:38:40,400 --> 00:38:42,942
Consciousness is the ability
to feel things,

756
00:38:42,966 --> 00:38:48,178
to feel joy and sadness
and boredom and pain and so forth.

757
00:38:48,202 --> 00:38:52,241
In Homo sapiens and all other mammals
as well -- it's not unique to humans --

758
00:38:52,265 --> 00:38:54,912
in all mammals and birds
and some other animals,

759
00:38:54,936 --> 00:38:57,586
intelligence and consciousness
go together.

760
00:38:57,610 --> 00:39:01,188
We often solve problems by feeling things.

761
00:39:01,212 --> 00:39:02,705
So we tend to confuse them.

762
00:39:02,729 --> 00:39:04,194
But they are different things.

763
00:39:04,218 --> 00:39:07,306
What's happening today
in places like Silicon Valley

764
00:39:07,330 --> 00:39:10,956
is that we are creating
artificial intelligence

765
00:39:10,980 --> 00:39:12,802
but not artificial consciousness.

766
00:39:12,826 --> 00:39:16,206
There has been an amazing development
in computer intelligence

767
00:39:16,230 --> 00:39:17,792
over the last 50 years,

768
00:39:17,816 --> 00:39:22,017
and exactly zero development
in computer consciousness,

769
00:39:22,041 --> 00:39:25,727
and there is no indication that computers
are going to become conscious

770
00:39:25,751 --> 00:39:28,282
anytime soon.

771
00:39:28,306 --> 00:39:33,956
So first of all, if there is
some cosmic role for consciousness,

772
00:39:33,980 --> 00:39:36,110
it's not unique to Homo sapiens.

773
00:39:36,134 --> 00:39:38,453
Cows are conscious, pigs are conscious,

774
00:39:38,477 --> 00:39:41,310
chimpanzees are conscious,
chickens are conscious,

775
00:39:41,334 --> 00:39:45,187
so if we go that way, first of all,
we need to broaden our horizons

776
00:39:45,211 --> 00:39:49,936
and remember very clearly we are not
the only sentient beings on Earth,

777
00:39:49,960 --> 00:39:51,755
and when it comes to sentience --

778
00:39:51,779 --> 00:39:55,091
when it comes to intelligence,
there is good reason to think

779
00:39:55,115 --> 00:39:58,411
we are the most intelligent
of the whole bunch.

780
00:39:58,435 --> 00:40:01,009
But when it comes to sentience,

781
00:40:01,033 --> 00:40:04,191
to say that humans are more
sentient than whales,

782
00:40:04,215 --> 00:40:08,362
or more sentient than baboons
or more sentient than cats,

783
00:40:08,386 --> 00:40:10,680
I see no evidence for that.

784
00:40:10,704 --> 00:40:14,311
So first step is, you go
in that direction, expand.

785
00:40:14,335 --> 00:40:18,317
And then the second question
of what is it for,

786
00:40:18,341 --> 00:40:20,123
I would reverse it

787
00:40:20,147 --> 00:40:24,383
and I would say that I don't think
sentience is for anything.

788
00:40:24,407 --> 00:40:28,579
I think we don't need
to find our role in the universe.

789
00:40:28,603 --> 00:40:34,416
The really important thing
is to liberate ourselves from suffering.

790
00:40:34,440 --> 00:40:37,433
What characterizes sentient beings

791
00:40:37,457 --> 00:40:40,177
in contrast to robots, to stones,

792
00:40:40,201 --> 00:40:41,384
to whatever,

793
00:40:41,408 --> 00:40:45,199
is that sentient beings
suffer, can suffer,

794
00:40:45,223 --> 00:40:47,563
and what they should focus on

795
00:40:47,587 --> 00:40:51,707
is not finding their place
in some mysterious cosmic drama.

796
00:40:51,731 --> 00:40:55,550
They should focus on understanding
what suffering is,

797
00:40:55,574 --> 00:40:58,933
what causes it and how
to be liberated from it.

798
00:40:59,572 --> 00:41:03,049
CA: I know this is a big issue for you,
and that was very eloquent.

799
00:41:03,073 --> 00:41:06,487
We're going to have a blizzard
of questions from the audience here,

800
00:41:06,511 --> 00:41:08,431
and maybe from Facebook as well,

801
00:41:08,455 --> 00:41:10,128
and maybe some comments as well.

802
00:41:10,152 --> 00:41:11,948
So let's go quick.

803
00:41:11,972 --> 00:41:13,402
There's one right here.

804
00:41:15,052 --> 00:41:17,861
Keep your hands held up
at the back if you want the mic,

805
00:41:17,885 --> 00:41:19,304
and we'll get it back to you.

806
00:41:19,328 --> 00:41:22,447
Question: In your work, you talk a lot
about the fictional stories

807
00:41:22,471 --> 00:41:23,815
that we accept as truth,

808
00:41:23,839 --> 00:41:25,556
and we live our lives by it.

809
00:41:25,580 --> 00:41:28,079
As an individual, knowing that,

810
00:41:28,103 --> 00:41:31,849
how does it impact the stories
that you choose to live your life,

811
00:41:31,873 --> 00:41:35,613
and do you confuse them
with the truth, like all of us?

812
00:41:36,246 --> 00:41:37,457
YNH: I try not to.

813
00:41:37,481 --> 00:41:40,249
I mean, for me, maybe the most
important question,

814
00:41:40,273 --> 00:41:42,751
both as a scientist and as a person,

815
00:41:42,775 --> 00:41:46,650
is how to tell the difference
between fiction and reality,

816
00:41:46,674 --> 00:41:49,270
because reality is there.

817
00:41:49,294 --> 00:41:51,376
I'm not saying that everything is fiction.

818
00:41:51,400 --> 00:41:54,452
It's just very difficult for human beings
to tell the difference

819
00:41:54,476 --> 00:41:56,093
between fiction and reality,

820
00:41:56,117 --> 00:42:01,062
and it has become more and more difficult
as history progressed,

821
00:42:01,086 --> 00:42:03,537
because the fictions
that we have created --

822
00:42:03,561 --> 00:42:06,729
nations and gods and money
and corporations --

823
00:42:06,753 --> 00:42:08,263
they now control the world.

824
00:42:08,287 --> 00:42:09,464
So just to even think,

825
00:42:09,488 --> 00:42:12,633
"Oh, this is just all fictional entities
that we've created,"

826
00:42:12,657 --> 00:42:14,104
is very difficult.

827
00:42:14,128 --> 00:42:16,408
But reality is there.

828
00:42:17,043 --> 00:42:19,048
For me the best ...

829
00:42:19,072 --> 00:42:21,195
There are several tests

830
00:42:21,219 --> 00:42:23,989
to tell the difference
between fiction and reality.

831
00:42:24,013 --> 00:42:27,439
The simplest one, the best one
that I can say in short,

832
00:42:27,463 --> 00:42:29,044
is the test of suffering.

833
00:42:29,068 --> 00:42:30,621
If it can suffer, it's real.

834
00:42:31,192 --> 00:42:32,886
If it can't suffer, it's not real.

835
00:42:32,910 --> 00:42:34,375
A nation cannot suffer.

836
00:42:34,399 --> 00:42:35,969
That's very, very clear.

837
00:42:35,993 --> 00:42:37,931
Even if a nation loses a war,

838
00:42:37,955 --> 00:42:42,020
we say, "Germany suffered a defeat
in the First World War,"

839
00:42:42,044 --> 00:42:43,209
it's a metaphor.

840
00:42:43,233 --> 00:42:45,790
Germany cannot suffer.
Germany has no mind.

841
00:42:45,814 --> 00:42:47,467
Germany has no consciousness.

842
00:42:47,491 --> 00:42:51,149
Germans can suffer, yes,
but Germany cannot.

843
00:42:51,173 --> 00:42:54,142
Similarly, when a bank goes bust,

844
00:42:54,166 --> 00:42:55,937
the bank cannot suffer.

845
00:42:55,961 --> 00:42:59,352
When the dollar loses its value,
the dollar doesn't suffer.

846
00:42:59,376 --> 00:43:01,626
People can suffer. Animals can suffer.

847
00:43:01,650 --> 00:43:02,806
This is real.

848
00:43:02,830 --> 00:43:07,359
So I would start, if you
really want to see reality,

849
00:43:07,383 --> 00:43:09,447
I would go through the door of suffering.

850
00:43:09,471 --> 00:43:12,425
If you can really understand
what suffering is,

851
00:43:12,449 --> 00:43:14,672
this will give you also the key

852
00:43:14,696 --> 00:43:16,713
to understand what reality is.

853
00:43:16,737 --> 00:43:19,520
CA: There's a Facebook question
here that connects to this,

854
00:43:19,544 --> 00:43:22,521
from someone around the world
in a language that I cannot read.

855
00:43:22,545 --> 00:43:24,762
YNH: Oh, it's Hebrew.
CA: Hebrew. There you go.

856
00:43:24,786 --> 00:43:25,848
(Laughter)

857
00:43:25,872 --> 00:43:27,036
Can you read the name?

858
00:43:27,060 --> 00:43:28,935
YNH: [??]

859
00:43:28,959 --> 00:43:30,803
CA: Well, thank you for writing in.

860
00:43:30,827 --> 00:43:35,382
The question is: "Is the post-truth era
really a brand-new era,

861
00:43:35,406 --> 00:43:39,793
or just another climax or moment
in a never-ending trend?

862
00:43:40,701 --> 00:43:44,030
YNH: Personally, I don't connect
with this idea of post-truth.

863
00:43:44,054 --> 00:43:46,762
My basic reaction as a historian is:

864
00:43:46,786 --> 00:43:50,681
If this is the era of post-truth,
when the hell was the era of truth?

865
00:43:50,705 --> 00:43:51,956
CA: Right.

866
00:43:51,980 --> 00:43:53,300
(Laughter)

867
00:43:53,324 --> 00:43:58,007
YNH: Was it the 1980s, the 1950s,
the Middle Ages?

868
00:43:58,031 --> 00:44:02,423
I mean, we have always lived
in an era, in a way, of post-truth.

869
00:44:02,883 --> 00:44:05,194
CA: But I'd push back on that,

870
00:44:05,218 --> 00:44:07,888
because I think what people
are talking about

871
00:44:07,912 --> 00:44:14,872
is that there was a world
where you had fewer journalistic outlets,

872
00:44:14,896 --> 00:44:18,544
where there were traditions,
that things were fact-checked.

873
00:44:18,568 --> 00:44:22,513
It was incorporated into the charter
of those organizations

874
00:44:22,537 --> 00:44:24,704
that the truth mattered.

875
00:44:24,728 --> 00:44:26,477
So if you believe in a reality,

876
00:44:26,501 --> 00:44:28,724
then what you write is information.

877
00:44:28,748 --> 00:44:32,569
There was a belief that that information
should connect to reality in a real way,

878
00:44:32,593 --> 00:44:35,554
and if you wrote a headline,
it was a serious, earnest attempt

879
00:44:35,578 --> 00:44:37,881
to reflect something
that had actually happened.

880
00:44:37,905 --> 00:44:39,756
And people didn't always get it right.

881
00:44:39,780 --> 00:44:41,789
But I think the concern now is you've got

882
00:44:41,813 --> 00:44:44,131
a technological system
that's incredibly powerful

883
00:44:44,155 --> 00:44:48,325
that, for a while at least,
massively amplified anything

884
00:44:48,349 --> 00:44:51,129
with no attention paid to whether
it connected to reality,

885
00:44:51,153 --> 00:44:54,307
only to whether it connected
to clicks and attention,

886
00:44:54,331 --> 00:44:55,947
and that that was arguably toxic.

887
00:44:55,971 --> 00:44:58,407
That's a reasonable concern, isn't it?

888
00:44:58,431 --> 00:45:00,717
YNH: Yeah, it is. I mean,
the technology changes,

889
00:45:00,741 --> 00:45:05,969
and it's now easier to disseminate
both truth and fiction and falsehood.

890
00:45:05,993 --> 00:45:07,996
It goes both ways.

891
00:45:08,020 --> 00:45:12,599
It's also much easier, though, to spread
the truth than it was ever before.

892
00:45:12,623 --> 00:45:16,308
But I don't think there
is anything essentially new

893
00:45:16,332 --> 00:45:21,052
about this disseminating
fictions and errors.

894
00:45:21,076 --> 00:45:25,110
There is nothing that -- I don't know --
Joseph Goebbels, didn't know

895
00:45:25,134 --> 00:45:30,573
about all this idea of fake
news and post-truth.

896
00:45:30,597 --> 00:45:34,315
He famously said that if you repeat
a lie often enough,

897
00:45:34,339 --> 00:45:36,160
people will think it's the truth,

898
00:45:36,184 --> 00:45:38,540
and the bigger the lie, the better,

899
00:45:38,564 --> 00:45:44,587
because people won't even think
that something so big can be a lie.

900
00:45:44,611 --> 00:45:50,269
I think that fake news
has been with us for thousands of years.

901
00:45:50,293 --> 00:45:52,194
Just think of the Bible.

902
00:45:52,218 --> 00:45:53,605
(Laughter)

903
00:45:53,629 --> 00:45:54,916
CA: But there is a concern

904
00:45:54,940 --> 00:45:58,957
that the fake news is associated
with tyrannical regimes,

905
00:45:58,981 --> 00:46:01,558
and when you see an uprise in fake news

906
00:46:01,582 --> 00:46:06,304
that is a canary in the coal mine
that there may be dark times coming.

907
00:46:08,124 --> 00:46:15,086
YNH: Yeah. I mean, the intentional use
of fake news is a disturbing sign.

908
00:46:15,812 --> 00:46:20,393
But I'm not saying that it's not bad,
I'm just saying that it's not new.

909
00:46:20,820 --> 00:46:23,574
CA: There's a lot of interest
on Facebook on this question

910
00:46:23,598 --> 00:46:28,598
about global governance
versus nationalism.

911
00:46:29,292 --> 00:46:30,800
Question here from Phil Dennis:

912
00:46:30,824 --> 00:46:34,320
"How do we get people, governments,
to relinquish power?

913
00:46:34,344 --> 00:46:38,259
Is that -- is that --
actually, the text is so big

914
00:46:38,283 --> 00:46:39,823
I can't read the full question.

915
00:46:39,847 --> 00:46:41,386
But is that a necessity?

916
00:46:41,410 --> 00:46:44,022
Is it going to take war to get there?

917
00:46:44,046 --> 00:46:47,736
Sorry Phil -- I mangled your question,
but I blame the text right here.

918
00:46:47,760 --> 00:46:49,860
YNH: One option
that some people talk about

919
00:46:49,884 --> 00:46:54,623
is that only a catastrophe
can shake humankind

920
00:46:54,647 --> 00:46:59,911
and open the path to a real system
of global governance,

921
00:46:59,935 --> 00:47:04,083
and they say that we can't do it
before the catastrophe,

922
00:47:04,107 --> 00:47:06,908
but we need to start
laying the foundations

923
00:47:06,932 --> 00:47:09,432
so that when the disaster strikes,

924
00:47:09,456 --> 00:47:11,638
we can react quickly.

925
00:47:11,662 --> 00:47:15,662
But people will just not have
the motivation to do such a thing

926
00:47:15,686 --> 00:47:17,698
before the disaster strikes.

927
00:47:17,722 --> 00:47:19,987
Another thing that I would emphasize

928
00:47:20,011 --> 00:47:25,065
is that anybody who is really
interested in global governance

929
00:47:25,089 --> 00:47:27,990
should always make it very, very clear

930
00:47:28,014 --> 00:47:34,598
that it doesn't replace or abolish
local identities and communities,

931
00:47:34,622 --> 00:47:37,578
that it should come both as --

932
00:47:37,602 --> 00:47:40,909
It should be part of a single package.

933
00:47:40,933 --> 00:47:44,311
CA: I want to hear more on this,

934
00:47:44,335 --> 00:47:47,388
because the very words "global governance"

935
00:47:47,412 --> 00:47:52,001
are almost the epitome of evil
in the mindset of a lot of people

936
00:47:52,025 --> 00:47:53,351
on the alt-right right now.

937
00:47:53,375 --> 00:47:56,329
It just seems scary, remote, distant,
and it has let them down,

938
00:47:56,353 --> 00:48:00,469
and so globalists,
global governance -- no, go away!

939
00:48:00,493 --> 00:48:04,175
And many view the election
as the ultimate poke in the eye

940
00:48:04,199 --> 00:48:05,677
to anyone who believes in that.

941
00:48:05,701 --> 00:48:09,252
So how do we change the narrative

942
00:48:09,276 --> 00:48:12,251
so that it doesn't seem
so scary and remote?

943
00:48:12,275 --> 00:48:15,019
Build more on this idea
of it being compatible

944
00:48:15,043 --> 00:48:17,664
with local identity, local communities.

945
00:48:17,688 --> 00:48:20,288
YNH: Well, I think again we should start

946
00:48:20,312 --> 00:48:23,444
really with the biological realities

947
00:48:23,468 --> 00:48:25,479
of Homo sapiens.

948
00:48:25,503 --> 00:48:29,621
And biology tells us two things
about Homo sapiens

949
00:48:29,645 --> 00:48:31,902
which are very relevant to this issue:

950
00:48:31,926 --> 00:48:34,955
first of all, that we are
completely dependent

951
00:48:34,979 --> 00:48:37,574
on the ecological system around us,

952
00:48:37,598 --> 00:48:41,057
and that today we are talking
about a global system.

953
00:48:41,081 --> 00:48:42,438
You cannot escape that.

954
00:48:42,462 --> 00:48:46,084
And at the same time, biology tells us
about Homo sapiens

955
00:48:46,108 --> 00:48:48,355
that we are social animals,

956
00:48:48,379 --> 00:48:53,016
but that we are social
on a very, very local level.

957
00:48:53,040 --> 00:48:56,585
It's just a simple fact of humanity

958
00:48:56,609 --> 00:49:01,406
that we cannot have intimate familiarity

959
00:49:01,430 --> 00:49:05,305
with more than about 150 individuals.

960
00:49:05,329 --> 00:49:09,626
The size of the natural group,

961
00:49:09,650 --> 00:49:12,752
the natural community of Homo sapiens,

962
00:49:12,776 --> 00:49:16,120
is not more than 150 individuals,

963
00:49:16,144 --> 00:49:22,543
and everything beyond that is really
based on all kinds of imaginary stories

964
00:49:22,567 --> 00:49:24,614
and large-scale institutions,

965
00:49:24,638 --> 00:49:29,014
and I think that we can find a way,

966
00:49:29,038 --> 00:49:33,608
again, based on a biological
understanding of our species,

967
00:49:33,632 --> 00:49:35,714
to weave the two together

968
00:49:35,738 --> 00:49:38,814
and to understand that today
in the 21st century,

969
00:49:38,838 --> 00:49:44,374
we need both the global level
and the local community.

970
00:49:44,398 --> 00:49:46,415
And I would go even further than that

971
00:49:46,439 --> 00:49:49,762
and say that it starts
with the body itself.

972
00:49:50,500 --> 00:49:54,842
The feelings that people today have
of alienation and loneliness

973
00:49:54,866 --> 00:49:58,082
and not finding their place in the world,

974
00:49:58,106 --> 00:50:03,835
I would think that the chief problem
is not global capitalism.

975
00:50:04,285 --> 00:50:07,311
The chief problem is that over
the last hundred years,

976
00:50:07,335 --> 00:50:11,039
people have been becoming disembodied,

977
00:50:11,063 --> 00:50:14,222
have been distancing themselves
from their body.

978
00:50:14,246 --> 00:50:17,142
As a hunter-gatherer or even as a peasant,

979
00:50:17,166 --> 00:50:21,364
to survive, you need to be
constantly in touch

980
00:50:21,388 --> 00:50:23,571
with your body and with your senses,

981
00:50:23,595 --> 00:50:24,776
every moment.

982
00:50:24,800 --> 00:50:26,947
If you go to the forest
to look for mushrooms

983
00:50:26,971 --> 00:50:29,348
and you don't pay attention
to what you hear,

984
00:50:29,372 --> 00:50:31,248
to what you smell, to what you taste,

985
00:50:31,272 --> 00:50:32,423
you're dead.

986
00:50:32,447 --> 00:50:34,598
So you must be very connected.

987
00:50:34,622 --> 00:50:39,218
In the last hundred years,
people are losing their ability

988
00:50:39,242 --> 00:50:42,114
to be in touch with their body
and their senses,

989
00:50:42,138 --> 00:50:44,324
to hear, to smell, to feel.

990
00:50:44,348 --> 00:50:47,474
More and more attention goes to screens,

991
00:50:47,498 --> 00:50:49,018
to what is happening elsewhere,

992
00:50:49,042 --> 00:50:50,263
some other time.

993
00:50:50,287 --> 00:50:52,718
This, I think, is the deep reason

994
00:50:52,742 --> 00:50:56,636
for the feelings of alienation
and loneliness and so forth,

995
00:50:56,660 --> 00:50:59,162
and therefore part of the solution

996
00:50:59,186 --> 00:51:03,450
is not to bring back
some mass nationalism,

997
00:51:03,474 --> 00:51:07,598
but also reconnect with our own bodies,

998
00:51:07,622 --> 00:51:10,885
and if you are back
in touch with your body,

999
00:51:10,909 --> 00:51:14,079
you will feel much more at home
in the world also.

1000
00:51:14,103 --> 00:51:17,788
CA: Well, depending on how things go,
we may all be back in the forest soon.

1001
00:51:17,812 --> 00:51:20,161
We're going to have
one more question in the room

1002
00:51:20,185 --> 00:51:21,688
and one more on Facebook.

1003
00:51:21,712 --> 00:51:25,093
Ama Adi-Dako: Hello. I'm from Ghana,
West Africa, and my question is:

1004
00:51:25,117 --> 00:51:29,719
I'm wondering how do you present
and justify the idea of global governance

1005
00:51:29,743 --> 00:51:32,754
to countries that have been
historically disenfranchised

1006
00:51:32,778 --> 00:51:34,823
by the effects of globalization,

1007
00:51:34,847 --> 00:51:37,593
and also, if we're talking about
global governance,

1008
00:51:37,617 --> 00:51:41,241
it sounds to me like it will definitely
come from a very Westernized idea

1009
00:51:41,265 --> 00:51:43,439
of what the "global"
is supposed to look like.

1010
00:51:43,463 --> 00:51:46,753
So how do we present and justify
that idea of global

1011
00:51:46,777 --> 00:51:49,770
versus wholly nationalist

1012
00:51:49,794 --> 00:51:53,129
to people in countries like Ghana
and Nigeria and Togo

1013
00:51:53,153 --> 00:51:55,329
and other countries like that?

1014
00:51:56,131 --> 00:52:02,545
YNH: I would start by saying
that history is extremely unfair,

1015
00:52:02,569 --> 00:52:06,491
and that we should realize that.

1016
00:52:07,004 --> 00:52:10,053
Many of the countries that suffered most

1017
00:52:10,077 --> 00:52:14,216
from the last 200 years of globalization

1018
00:52:14,240 --> 00:52:16,200
and imperialism and industrialization

1019
00:52:16,224 --> 00:52:21,934
are exactly the countries
which are also most likely to suffer most

1020
00:52:21,958 --> 00:52:24,747
from the next wave.

1021
00:52:24,771 --> 00:52:28,765
And we should be very,
very clear about that.

1022
00:52:29,477 --> 00:52:32,528
If we don't have a global governance,

1023
00:52:32,552 --> 00:52:35,755
and if we suffer from climate change,

1024
00:52:35,779 --> 00:52:38,036
from technological disruptions,

1025
00:52:38,060 --> 00:52:41,661
the worst suffering will not be in the US.

1026
00:52:41,685 --> 00:52:46,781
The worst suffering will be in Ghana,
will be in Sudan, will be in Syria,

1027
00:52:46,805 --> 00:52:49,542
will be in Bangladesh,
will be in those places.

1028
00:52:49,566 --> 00:52:55,602
So I think those countries
have an even greater incentive

1029
00:52:55,626 --> 00:53:00,353
to do something about
the next wave of disruption,

1030
00:53:00,377 --> 00:53:02,902
whether it's ecological
or whether it's technological.

1031
00:53:02,926 --> 00:53:05,772
Again, if you think about
technological disruption,

1032
00:53:05,796 --> 00:53:10,412
so if AI and 3D printers and robots
will take the jobs

1033
00:53:10,436 --> 00:53:12,805
from billions of people,

1034
00:53:12,829 --> 00:53:15,954
I worry far less about the Swedes

1035
00:53:15,978 --> 00:53:19,583
than about the people in Ghana
or in Bangladesh.

1036
00:53:19,607 --> 00:53:24,835
And therefore,
because history is so unfair

1037
00:53:24,859 --> 00:53:29,205
and the results of a calamity

1038
00:53:29,229 --> 00:53:31,597
will not be shared equally
between everybody,

1039
00:53:31,621 --> 00:53:36,054
as usual, the rich
will be able to get away

1040
00:53:36,078 --> 00:53:39,550
from the worst consequences
of climate change

1041
00:53:39,574 --> 00:53:42,419
in a way that the poor
will not be able to.

1042
00:53:43,347 --> 00:53:46,755
CA: And here's a great question
from Cameron Taylor on Facebook:

1043
00:53:46,779 --> 00:53:48,900
"At the end of 'Sapiens,'"

1044
00:53:48,924 --> 00:53:50,987
you said we should be asking the question,

1045
00:53:51,011 --> 00:53:53,367
'What do we want to want?'

1046
00:53:53,391 --> 00:53:56,378
Well, what do you think
we should want to want?"

1047
00:53:56,402 --> 00:53:59,933
YNH: I think we should want
to want to know the truth,

1048
00:53:59,957 --> 00:54:02,607
to understand reality.

1049
00:54:03,207 --> 00:54:08,321
Mostly what we want is to change reality,

1050
00:54:08,345 --> 00:54:12,063
to fit it to our own desires,
to our own wishes,

1051
00:54:12,087 --> 00:54:15,807
and I think we should first
want to understand it.

1052
00:54:15,831 --> 00:54:19,595
If you look at the long-term
trajectory of history,

1053
00:54:19,619 --> 00:54:22,355
what you see is that
for thousands of years

1054
00:54:22,379 --> 00:54:25,715
we humans have been gaining
control of the world outside us

1055
00:54:25,739 --> 00:54:29,233
and trying to shape it
to fit our own desires.

1056
00:54:29,257 --> 00:54:32,445
And we've gained control
of the other animals,

1057
00:54:32,469 --> 00:54:34,000
of the rivers, of the forests,

1058
00:54:34,024 --> 00:54:37,517
and reshaped them completely,

1059
00:54:37,541 --> 00:54:40,902
causing an ecological destruction

1060
00:54:40,926 --> 00:54:44,104
without making ourselves satisfied.

1061
00:54:44,128 --> 00:54:47,930
So the next step
is we turn our gaze inwards,

1062
00:54:47,954 --> 00:54:52,502
and we say OK, getting control
of the world outside us

1063
00:54:52,526 --> 00:54:54,390
did not really make us satisfied.

1064
00:54:54,414 --> 00:54:57,113
Let's now try to gain control
of the world inside us.

1065
00:54:57,137 --> 00:54:59,300
This is the really big project

1066
00:54:59,324 --> 00:55:03,620
of science and technology
and industry in the 21st century --

1067
00:55:03,644 --> 00:55:07,166
to try and gain control
of the world inside us,

1068
00:55:07,190 --> 00:55:12,113
to learn how to engineer and produce
bodies and brains and minds.

1069
00:55:12,137 --> 00:55:16,779
These are likely to be the main
products of the 21st century economy.

1070
00:55:16,803 --> 00:55:20,624
When people think about the future,
very often they think in terms,

1071
00:55:20,648 --> 00:55:24,595
"Oh, I want to gain control
of my body and of my brain."

1072
00:55:24,619 --> 00:55:27,429
And I think that's very dangerous.

1073
00:55:27,453 --> 00:55:30,719
If we've learned anything
from our previous history,

1074
00:55:30,743 --> 00:55:34,656
it's that yes, we gain
the power to manipulate,

1075
00:55:34,680 --> 00:55:37,470
but because we didn't really
understand the complexity

1076
00:55:37,494 --> 00:55:39,299
of the ecological system,

1077
00:55:39,323 --> 00:55:43,013
we are now facing an ecological meltdown.

1078
00:55:43,037 --> 00:55:48,443
And if we now try to reengineer
the world inside us

1079
00:55:48,467 --> 00:55:50,599
without really understanding it,

1080
00:55:50,623 --> 00:55:54,939
especially without understanding
the complexity of our mental system,

1081
00:55:54,963 --> 00:55:59,623
we might cause a kind of internal
ecological disaster,

1082
00:55:59,647 --> 00:56:03,190
and we'll face a kind of mental
meltdown inside us.

1083
00:56:04,270 --> 00:56:06,712
CA: Putting all the pieces
together here --

1084
00:56:06,736 --> 00:56:09,416
the current politics,
the coming technology,

1085
00:56:09,440 --> 00:56:11,590
concerns like the one
you've just outlined --

1086
00:56:11,614 --> 00:56:14,709
I mean, it seems like you yourself
are in quite a bleak place

1087
00:56:14,733 --> 00:56:16,354
when you think about the future.

1088
00:56:16,378 --> 00:56:17,960
You're pretty worried about it.

1089
00:56:17,984 --> 00:56:19,176
Is that right?

1090
00:56:19,200 --> 00:56:25,888
And if there was one cause for hope,
how would you state that?

1091
00:56:25,912 --> 00:56:30,075
YNH: I focus on the most
dangerous possibilities

1092
00:56:30,099 --> 00:56:33,120
partly because this is like
my job or responsibility

1093
00:56:33,144 --> 00:56:34,925
as a historian or social critic.

1094
00:56:34,949 --> 00:56:39,711
I mean, the industry focuses mainly
on the positive sides,

1095
00:56:39,735 --> 00:56:43,096
so it's the job of historians
and philosophers and sociologists

1096
00:56:43,120 --> 00:56:47,561
to highlight the more dangerous potential
of all these new technologies.

1097
00:56:47,585 --> 00:56:50,068
I don't think any of that is inevitable.

1098
00:56:50,092 --> 00:56:53,131
Technology is never deterministic.

1099
00:56:53,155 --> 00:56:54,872
You can use the same technology

1100
00:56:54,896 --> 00:56:57,887
to create very different
kinds of societies.

1101
00:56:57,911 --> 00:56:59,949
If you look at the 20th century,

1102
00:56:59,973 --> 00:57:02,754
so, the technologies
of the Industrial Revolution,

1103
00:57:02,778 --> 00:57:05,835
the trains and electricity and all that

1104
00:57:05,859 --> 00:57:08,911
could be used to create
a communist dictatorship

1105
00:57:08,935 --> 00:57:11,740
or a fascist regime
or a liberal democracy.

1106
00:57:11,764 --> 00:57:14,292
The trains did not tell you
what to do with them.

1107
00:57:14,316 --> 00:57:18,768
Similarly, now, artificial intelligence
and bioengineering and all of that --

1108
00:57:18,792 --> 00:57:22,306
they don't predetermine a single outcome.

1109
00:57:22,886 --> 00:57:26,063
Humanity can rise up to the challenge,

1110
00:57:26,087 --> 00:57:27,778
and the best example we have

1111
00:57:27,802 --> 00:57:31,542
of humanity rising up
to the challenge of a new technology

1112
00:57:31,566 --> 00:57:33,289
is nuclear weapons.

1113
00:57:33,313 --> 00:57:36,322
In the late 1940s, '50s,

1114
00:57:36,346 --> 00:57:38,485
many people were convinced

1115
00:57:38,509 --> 00:57:42,815
that sooner or later the Cold War
will end in a nuclear catastrophe,

1116
00:57:42,839 --> 00:57:44,614
destroying human civilization.

1117
00:57:44,638 --> 00:57:46,118
And this did not happen.

1118
00:57:46,142 --> 00:57:52,562
In fact, nuclear weapons prompted
humans all over the world

1119
00:57:52,586 --> 00:57:57,327
to change the way that they manage
international politics

1120
00:57:57,351 --> 00:57:59,720
to reduce violence.

1121
00:57:59,744 --> 00:58:02,983
And many countries basically took out war

1122
00:58:03,007 --> 00:58:04,881
from their political toolkit.

1123
00:58:04,905 --> 00:58:09,175
They no longer tried to pursue
their interests with warfare.

1124
00:58:09,580 --> 00:58:12,850
Not all countries have done so,
but many countries have.

1125
00:58:12,874 --> 00:58:16,808
And this is maybe
the most important reason

1126
00:58:16,832 --> 00:58:22,934
why international violence
declined dramatically since 1945,

1127
00:58:22,958 --> 00:58:26,296
and today, as I said,
more people commit suicide

1128
00:58:26,320 --> 00:58:28,527
than are killed in war.

1129
00:58:28,551 --> 00:58:33,380
So this, I think, gives us a good example

1130
00:58:33,404 --> 00:58:37,246
that even the most frightening technology,

1131
00:58:37,270 --> 00:58:39,805
humans can rise up to the challenge

1132
00:58:39,829 --> 00:58:42,852
and actually some good can come out of it.

1133
00:58:42,876 --> 00:58:47,163
The problem is, we have very little
margin for error.

1134
00:58:47,187 --> 00:58:49,396
If we don't get it right,

1135
00:58:49,420 --> 00:58:53,091
we might not have
a second option to try again.

1136
00:58:54,337 --> 00:58:55,904
CA: That's a very powerful note,

1137
00:58:55,928 --> 00:58:58,733
on which I think we should draw
this to a conclusion.

1138
00:58:58,757 --> 00:59:01,868
Before I wrap up, I just want to say
one thing to people here

1139
00:59:01,892 --> 00:59:07,438
and to the global TED community
watching online, anyone watching online:

1140
00:59:07,462 --> 00:59:10,355
help us with these dialogues.

1141
00:59:10,379 --> 00:59:12,929
If you believe, like we do,

1142
00:59:12,953 --> 00:59:15,933
that we need to find
a different kind of conversation,

1143
00:59:15,957 --> 00:59:18,190
now more than ever, help us do it.

1144
00:59:18,214 --> 00:59:20,237
Reach out to other people,

1145
00:59:21,269 --> 00:59:24,009
try and have conversations
with people you disagree with,

1146
00:59:24,033 --> 00:59:25,216
understand them,

1147
00:59:25,240 --> 00:59:26,770
pull the pieces together,

1148
00:59:26,794 --> 00:59:30,686
and help us figure out how to take
these conversations forward

1149
00:59:30,710 --> 00:59:32,964
so we can make a real contribution

1150
00:59:32,988 --> 00:59:35,733
to what's happening
in the world right now.

1151
00:59:35,757 --> 00:59:39,076
I think everyone feels more alive,

1152
00:59:39,100 --> 00:59:41,410
more concerned, more engaged

1153
00:59:41,434 --> 00:59:43,963
with the politics of the moment.

1154
00:59:43,987 --> 00:59:46,441
The stakes do seem quite high,

1155
00:59:46,465 --> 00:59:50,977
so help us respond to it
in a wise, wise way.

1156
00:59:51,001 --> 00:59:52,596
Yuval Harari, thank you.

1157
00:59:52,620 --> 00:59:55,928
(Applause)