9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
Chris Anderson: Hello. So welcome[br]to this TED dialogue.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
It's the first of a series that's[br]really going to be done

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
in response to the current[br]political upheaval.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
I don't know about you.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
I've become quite concerned about[br]the growing divisiveness in this country

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and in the world.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
No one's listening to each other. Right?

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
They aren't.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
And it feels like we need

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
a different kind of conversation,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
one that's based on, I don't know,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
reason, listening, on understanding,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
on a broader context.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
That's at least what we're going to try

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
in these TED Dialogues starting today,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and we couldn't have anyone with us

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
who I'd be more excited to kick this off.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
This is a mind right here that thinks

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
pretty much like no one else on the planet

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
I would say, because I'm serious.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
I'm serious.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
He synthesizes history

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
with underlying ideas in a way

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
that kind of takes your breath away.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
So some of you will know this book,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
"Sapiens."

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
Has anyone here read "Sapiens?"

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
(Applause)

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
I mean, I could not put it down.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
The way that he tells[br]the story of mankind

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
through big ideas that really make you[br]think differently, though,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
it's kind of amazing.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
And here's the follow-up, which I think[br]is being published in the U.S. next week.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
Yuval Noah Harari: Yeah, next week.[br]CA: "Homo Deus."

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
Now this is the history[br]of the next hundred years.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
I've had a chance to read it.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
It's extremely dramatic,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and I daresay for some people

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
quite alarming.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
It's a must-read,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and honestly, we couldn't have[br]someone better to help

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
make sense of what on Earth[br]is happening in the world right now.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
So a warm welcome, please,[br]to Yuval Noah Harari.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
(Applause)

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
It's great to be joined by our friends[br]on Facebook and around the web.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
Hello, Facebook.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
And all of you, as I start[br]asking questions of Yuval,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
come up with your own questions,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and not necessarily about[br]the political scandal du jour

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
but about the broader understanding[br]of where are we heading?

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
You ready? Okay, we're going to go.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
So here we are, Yuval, New York City,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
2017, there's a new president in power,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and shockwaves rippling around the world.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
What on Earth is happening?

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
YNH: I think the basic thing that happens

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
is that we have lost our story.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
Humans think in stories,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and we try to make sense of the world

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
by telling stories,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and for the last few decades,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
we had a very simple[br]and very attractive story

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
about what's happening in the world,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and the story said that, oh,[br]what's happening is

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
that the economy is being globalized,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
politics is being liberalized,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and the combination of the two[br]will create paradise on Earth,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and we just need to keep on[br]globalizing the economy

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and liberalizing the political system,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and everything will be wonderful.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
And 2016 is the moment

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
when a very large segment,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
even of the Western world,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
stopped believing in this story.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
For good or bad reasons doesn't matter.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
People stopped believing in the story,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and when you don't have a story,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
you don't understand what's happening.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
CA: Part of you believes that that story[br]was actually a very effective story.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
It worked.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
YNH: To some extent, yes.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
According to some measurements,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
we are now in the best time ever

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
for humankind.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
Today, for the first time in history,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
more people die from eating too much

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
than from eating too little,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
which is an amazing achievement.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
(Laughter)

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
Also for the first time in history,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
more people die from old age

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
than from infectious diseases,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and violence is also down.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
For the first time in history,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
more people commit suicide

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
than are killed by crime and terrorism

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and war put together.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
Statistically, you are[br]your own worst enemy.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
At least, of all the people in the world,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
you are most likely[br]to be killed by yourself,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
which is very good news

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
compared to the level of violence

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
that we saw in previous eras.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
CA: But this process[br]of connecting the world

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
ended up with a large group of people[br]kind of feeling left out,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and they've reacted, and so we have[br]this bombshell that's sort of ripping

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
through the whole system.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
I mean, what do you make[br]of what's happened?

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
It feels like the old way[br]that people thought of politics,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
the left-right divide,[br]has been blown up and replaced.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
How should we think of this?

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
YNH: Yeah, the old 20th century

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
political model of left versus right

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
is now largely irrelevant,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and the real divide today

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
is in global and national,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
global or local.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
And you see it again all over the world

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
that this is now the main struggle.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
We probably need completely[br]new political models

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and completely new ways of thinking

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
about politics.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
In essence what you can say

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
is that we now have global ecology,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
we have a global economy,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
but we have national politics,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and this doesn't work together.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
This makes the political[br]system ineffective

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
because it has no control[br]over the forces that shape our life.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
And you have basically two solutions

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
to this imbalance.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
Either deglobalize the economy

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and turn it back into a national economy,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
or globalize the political system.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
CA: So some, I guess[br]many liberals out there

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
view Trump and his government

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
as kind of irredeemably bad,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
just awful in every way.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
Do you see any underlying

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
narrative or political philosophy in there

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
that is at least worth understanding.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
How would you articulate that philosophy?

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
Is it just the philosophy of nationalism?

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
YNH: I think the underlying[br]feeling or idea

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
is that the political system,[br]something is broken there.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
It doesn't empower

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
the ordinary person anymore.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
It doesn't care so much[br]about the ordinary person anymore,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and I think this diagnosis[br]of the political disease is correct.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
With regard to the answers,[br]I am far less certain.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
I think what we are seeing[br]is the immediate human reaction:

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
if something doesn't work, let's go back.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
And you see it all over the world,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
that people, almost nobody[br]in the political system today

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
has any future-oriented vision

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
of where humankind is going.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
Almost everywhere, you see[br]retrograde vision.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
Let's make America great again,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
like it was great, I don't know,[br]in the '50s, in the '80s, sometime,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
let's go back there.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
And you go to Russia.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
So a hundred years after Lenin,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
Putin's vision for the future

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
is basically, ah, let's go back[br]to the Tsarist empire.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
And in Israel, where I come from,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
the hottest political vision

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
of the present

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
is "let's build the temple again."

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
So let's go back 2,000 years backward.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
So people are thinking[br]sometime in the past we've lost it,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and sometimes in the past, it's like[br]you've lost your way in the city,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and you say okay, let's go back[br]to the point where I felt secure

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and start again.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
I don't think this can work,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
but a lot of people,[br]this is their gut instinct.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
CA: But why couldn't it work?

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
America first is a very[br]appealing slogan in many ways.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
Patriotism is in many ways[br]a very noble thing.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
It's played a role in promoting

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
cooperation among large numbers of people.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
Why couldn't you have a world

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
organized in country

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
all of which put themselves first?

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
YNH: For many centuries,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
even thousands of years,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
patriotism worked quite well.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
Of course it led to wars an so forth,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
but we shouldn't focus[br]too much on the bad.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
There are also many,[br]many positive things about patriotism,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and the ability to have[br]a large number of people

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
care about each other,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
sympathize with one another,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and come together for collective action.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
If you go back to the first nations,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
so thousands of years ago,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
the people who lived along[br]the Yellow River in China,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
it was many, many different tribes

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and they all depended on the river

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
for survival and for prosperity,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
but all of them also suffered

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
from periodical floods

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and periodical droughts,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and no tribe could do anything about it

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
because each of them controlled[br]just a tiny section of the river.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
And then in a long[br]and complicated process,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
the tribes coalesced together

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
to form the Chinese nation,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
which controlled the entire Yellow River

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and had the ability

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
to bring hundreds of thousands[br]of people together

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
to build dams and canals

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and regulate the river

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and prevent the worst floods and droughts

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and raise the level[br]of prosperity for everybody.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
And this worked in many places[br]around the world.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
But in the 21st century,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
technology is changing all that[br]in a fundamental way.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
We are now living, all people[br]in the world are living

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
alongside the same cyber river,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and no single nation

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
can regulate this river by itself.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
We are all living together[br]in a single planet

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
which is threatened by our own actions,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and if you don't have some kind[br]of global cooperation,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
nationalism is just not on the right level

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
to tackle the problems

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
of whether it's climate change

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
or whether it's technological disruption.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
CA: So it was a beautiful idea

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
in a world where most of the action,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
most of the issues,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
took place on national scale,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
but your argument is that the issues[br]that matter most today

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
no longer take place on a national scale[br]but on a global scale.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
YNH: Exactly. All of the major problems[br]of the world today

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
are global in essence,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and they cannot be solved

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
unless through some kind[br]of global cooperation.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
It's not just climate change,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
which is, like, the most obvious[br]example people give.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
I think more in terms[br]of technological disruption.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
If you think about, for example,[br]artificial intelligence,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
over the next 20, 30 years

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
pushing hundreds of millions of people[br]out of the job market,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
this is a problem on a global level.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
It will disrupt the economy[br]of all the countries,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and similarly if you think[br]about, say, bioengineering

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and people being afraid[br]of conducting genetic engineering

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
research in humans,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
it won't help if just a single country,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
let's say the U.S.,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
outlaws all genetic experiments in humans

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
but China or North Korea[br]continues to do it.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
So the U.S. cannot solve it by itself,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and very quickly, the pressure on the U.S.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
to do the same will be immense

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
because we are talking about[br]high-risk, high-gain technologies.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
If somebody else is doing it,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
I can't allow myself to remain behind.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
The only way to have regulations,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
effective regulations,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
on things like genetic engineering,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
is to have global regulations.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
If you just have national regulations,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
nobody would like to stay behind.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
CA: So this is really interesting.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
It seems that this might be one key

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
to provoking at least[br]a constructive conversation

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
between the different sides here,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
because I think everyone can agree[br]that the start point

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
of a lot of the anger that's[br]propelled us to where we are

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
is because of the legitimate[br]concerns about job loss.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
Work is gone, a traditional way of life

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
has gone, and it's no wonder[br]that people are furious about that.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
And in general, they have blamed[br]globalism, global elites

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
for doing this to them[br]without asking their permission,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and that seems like[br]a legitimate complaint.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
But what I hear you saying

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
is that, so a key question is,[br]what is the real cause of job loss,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
both now and going forward?

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
To the extent that it's about globalism,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
then the right response, yes,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
is to shut down borders

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and keep people out

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and change trade agreements and so forth.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
But you're saying, I think,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
that actually the bigger cause of job loss

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
is not going to be that at all.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
It's going to originate[br]in technological questions,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and we have no chance of solving that[br]unless we operate as a connected world.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
YNH: Yeah, I think that,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
I don't know about the present,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
but looking to the future,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
it's not the Mexicans or Chinese

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
who will take the jobs from[br]the people in Pennsylvania,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
it's the robots and algorithms,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
so unless you plan to build a big wall

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
on the border of California --

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
(Laughter) --

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
the wall on the border with Mexico[br]is going to be very ineffective.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
And I was struck when I watched[br]the debates before the elections,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
I was struck that certainly Trump[br]did not even attempt

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
to frighten people by saying[br]the robots will take your jobs.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
Now even if it's not true,[br]it doesn't matter.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
It could have been an extremely[br]effective way of frightening people

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and galvanizing people.[br]"The robots will take your jobs."

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
And nobody used that line.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
And it made me afraid,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
because it meant

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
that no matter what happens

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
in universities and laboratories,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and there there is already[br]an intense debate about it,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
but in the mainstream political system

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and among the general public,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
people are just unaware

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
that there could be an immense[br]technological disruption,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
not in 200 years,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
but in 10, 20, 30 years,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and we have to do something about it now,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
partly because most of what we teach

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
children today in school

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
or in college

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
is going to be completely irrelevant

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
to the job market of 2040, 2050.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
So it's not something we'll need[br]to think about in 2040.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
We need to think today

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
what to teach the young people.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
CA: Yeah, no, absolutely.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
You've often written about[br]moments in history

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
where humankind has

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
entered a new era kind of unintentionally.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
Decisions have been made,[br]technologies have been developed,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and suddenly the world has changed,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
possibly in a way that's[br]worse for everyone.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
So one of the example[br]you give in "Sapiens"

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
is just the whole agricultural revolution,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
which for an actual person[br]tilling the fields,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
they just picked up a 12-hour[br]backbreaking workday

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
instead of six hours in the jungle

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and a much more interesting lifestyle.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
So are we at another possible[br]phase change here

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
where we kind of sleepwalk into[br]a future that none of us actually wants?

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
YNH: Yes, very much so.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
During the agricultural revolution,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
what happened is that immense[br]technological and economic revolution

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
empowered the human collective,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
but when you look at actual[br]individual lives,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
the life of a tiny elite

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
became much better,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and the life of the majority of people

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
became considerably worse.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
And this can happen again[br]in the 21st century.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
No doubt the new technologies[br]will empower the human collective,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
but we may end up again

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
with a tiny elite

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
ripping all the benefits,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
taking all the fruits,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and the masses of the population

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
finding themselves worse

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
than they were before,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
certainly much worse than this tiny elite.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
CA: And those elites might not[br]even be human elites.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
They might be cyborgs or --

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
YNH: Yeah, they could be[br]enhanced superhumans.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
They could be cyborgs.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
They could be completely[br]nonorganic elites.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
They could even be[br]non-conscious algorithms.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
What we see now in the world

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
is authority shifting away

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
from humans to algorithms.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
More and more decisions

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
about personal lives,[br]about economic matters,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
about political matters,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
is actually being taken by algorithms.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
If you ask the bank for a loan,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
chances are your fate is decided[br]by an algorithm, not by a human being,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and the general impression is that

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
maybe homo sapiens just lost it.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
The world is so complicated,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
there is so much data,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
things are changing so fast,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
that this thing that evolved[br]on the African savannah

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
tens of thousands of years ago

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
to cope with a particular environment,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
a particular volume[br]of information and data,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
it just can't handle the realities[br]of the 21st century,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and the only thing that may[br]be able to handle it

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
is big data algorithms.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
So no wonder that more and more[br]authority is shifting from us

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
to the algorithms.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
CA: So we're in New York City

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
for the first of a series of TED Dialogues

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
with Yuval Harari,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and there's a Facebook live[br]audience out there.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
We're excited to have you with us.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
We're going to start coming[br]to some of your questions

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and questions of people in the room

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
in just a few minutes,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
so have those coming.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
Yuval, if you're going[br]to make the argument

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
that we need to get past nationalism[br]because of the coming

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
technological danger, in a way,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
presented by so much of what's happening

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
so we've got to have[br]a global conversation about this.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
Trouble is, it's really hard to get people[br]really believing that, I don't know,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
AI really is an imminent[br]threat, and so forth.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
The things that people,[br]some people at least,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
care about much more immediately perhaps

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
is perhaps climate change,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
perhaps other issues like refugees,[br]nuclear weapons, and so forth.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
Would you argue that

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
where we are right now

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
that somehow those issues

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
need to be dialed up?

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
You've talked about climate change,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
but Trump has said[br]he doesn't believe in that.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
So in a way your most powerful argument,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
you can't actually use to make this case.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
YNH: Yeah, I think with climate change,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
at first sight, it's quite surprising

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
that there is a very close correlation

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
between nationalism and climate change.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
I mean, almost always the people[br]who deny climate change are nationalists.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
And at first sight, you think why?

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
What's the connection?

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
Why don't you have socialists[br]denying climate change?

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
But then, when you think about it,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
it's obvious.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
Because nationalism has[br]no solution to climate change,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
if you want to be a nationalist[br]in the 21st century,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
you have to deny the problem.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
If you accept the reality of the problem,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
then you must accept that yes,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
there is still room in the world

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
for patriotism,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
there is still room in the world

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
for having special loyalties

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and obligations towards your own people,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
towards your own country.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
I don't think anybody is really[br]thinking of abolishing that.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
But in order to confront climate change,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
we need additional loyalties[br]and commitments

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
to a level beyond the nation.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
And that should not be impossible,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
because people can have

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
several layers of loyalty.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
You can be loyal to your family

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and to your community

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and to your nation,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
so why can't you be also loyal

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
to humankind as a whole?

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
Of course, there are occasions[br]where it becomes difficult,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
what to put first,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
but life is difficult. Handle it.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
(Laughter)

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
CA: Okay, so I would love to get[br]some questions from the audience here.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
We've got a microphone here.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
Speak into it, and Facebook,[br]get them coming too.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
Question: So one of the things

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
that has clearly made a huge difference

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
in this country and other countries

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
is the income distribution inequality,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
the dramatic change in income distribution

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
in the U.S. from what it was 50 years ago

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and around the world.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
Is there anything that we can do[br]to affect that,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
because that gets at a lot[br]of the underlying causes?

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
YNH: So far I haven't heard[br]a very good idea

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
about what to do about it,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
again partly because most ideas[br]remain on the national level,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and the problem is global.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
I mean, one idea that we hear[br]quite a lot about now

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
is universal basic income,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
but this is a problem.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
I mean, I think it's a good part,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
but it's a problematic idea because[br]it's not clear what universal is

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and it's not clear what basic is.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
Most people when they speak[br]about universal basic income,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
they actually mean national basic income,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
but the problem is global.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
Let's say that you have an AI

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and the 3D printers

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
taking away millions of jobs in Bangladesh

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
of all the people who make my shirts

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and my shoes?

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
So what's going to happen?

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
The U.S. government will levy taxes

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
in Google and Apple in California

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and use that to pay basic income[br]to unemployed Bangladeshis?

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
If you believe that,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
you can just as well[br]believe that Santa Claus

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
will come and solve the problem.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
So unless we have really universal

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and not national basic income,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
the deep problems

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
are not going to go away,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and also it's not clear what basic is,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
because what are basic human needs?

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
A thousand years ago,[br]just food and shelter is enough,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
but today people will say education

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
is a basic human need.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
It should be part of the package.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
But how much?

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
Six years? Twelve years? PhD?

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
Similarly with health care,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
let's say that in 20, 30, 40 years,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
you'll have expensive treatments

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
that can extend human life

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
to 120, I don't know.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
Will this be part

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
of the basket of basic income or not?

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
It's a very difficult problem,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
because in a world

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
where people lose their ability[br]to be employed,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
the only thing they are going to get[br]is this basic income.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
So what's part of it

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
is a very, very difficult[br]ethical question.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
CA: And there's a bunch of questions[br]on how the world affords it as well,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
who pays.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
There's a question here[br]from Facebook from Lisa Larson.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
How does nationalism in the U.S. now

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
compare to that between[br]World War I and World War II

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
in the last century?

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
YNH: Well the good news,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
with regard to the dangers of nationalism,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
we are in a much better position

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
than a century ago.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
A century ago, 1917,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
Europeans were killing each other[br]by the millions.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
In 2016, with Brexit,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
as far as I can remember,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
a single person lost their life,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
an MP who was murdered[br]by some extremist,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
just a single person.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
I mean, if Brexit was about[br]British independence,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
this is the most peaceful[br]war of independence in human history.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
And let's say that Scotland[br]will now choose to leave the U.K.,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
after Brexit.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
So in the 18th century,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
if Scotland wanted,[br]and the Scots wanted several times,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
to break out of the control of London,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
the reaction of the government[br]in London was to send an army up north

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
to burn down Edinburgh

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and massacre the highland tribes.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
My guess is that if in 2018,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
the Scots vote for independence,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
the London government[br]will not send an army up north

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
to burn down Edinburgh.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
Very few people are now willing[br]to kill or be killed

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
for Scottish or for British independence.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
So for all the talk[br]of the rise of nationalism

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and going back to the 1930s,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
to the 19th century,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
in the West at least,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
the power of national sentiments today

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
is far, far smaller

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
than it was a century ago.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
CA: Although some people now,[br]you hear publicly worrying

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
about whether that might be shifting,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
that there could actually be[br]outbreaks of violence in the U.S.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
depending on how things turn out.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
Should we be worried about that, or[br]do you really think things have shifted?

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
YNH: No, we should be worried.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
We should be aware of two things.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
First of all, don't be hysterical.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
We are not back[br]in the First World War yet.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
But on the other hand,[br]don't be complacent.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
We reached from 1917 to 2017

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
not by some divine miracle

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
but simply by human decisions,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
and if we now start making[br]the wrong decisions,

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
we could be back

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
in an analogous situation

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
to 1917 in a few years.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
One of the things I know as a historian

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
is that you should never[br]underestimate human stupidity.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
(Laughter)

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
It's one of the most powerful[br]forces in history

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
is human stupidity and human violence.

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
Humans do such crazy things

9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000
for no obvious reasons,

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but again, at the same time,

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another very powerful force[br]in human history is human wisdom.

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We have both.

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CA: We have with us here[br]moral psychologist Jonathan Haidt,

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who I think has a question.

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Jonathan Haidt: Thanks, Yuval.

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So you seem to be a fan[br]of global governance,

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but when you look at the map of the world

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from Transparency International,

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which rates the level of corruption[br]of political institutions,

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it's a vast sea of red

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with little bits of yellow here and there[br]for those with good institutions.

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So if we were to have[br]some kind of global governance,

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what makes you think that it would end up[br]being more like Denmark

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rather than more like Russia or Honduras,

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and aren't there alternatives

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such as we did with CFCs?

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I mean, there are ways to solve[br]global problems with national governments.

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What would world government[br]actually look like,

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and why do you think it would work?

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YNH: Well, I don't know[br]how it would look like.

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Nobody still has a model for that.

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The main reason we need it

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is because many of these issues

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are lose-lose situations.

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When you have a win-win situation

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like trade, both sides can benefit[br]from a trade agreement,

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then this is something you can work out.

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Without some kind of global government,

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national governments each[br]has an interest in doing it.

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But when you have a lose-lose situation,[br]like with climate change,

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it's much more difficult

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without some overarching[br]authority, real authority.

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Now, how to get there

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and how would it look like,

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I don't know.

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And certainly there is no obvious reason

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to think that it would look like Denmark,

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or that it would be a democracy.

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Most likely it wouldn't.

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We don't have workable

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democratic models

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for a global government.

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So maybe it would look more[br]like ancient China

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than like modern Denmark,

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but still, given the dangers

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that we are facing,

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I think the imperative

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of having some kind of real ability

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to force through difficult decisions

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on the global level

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is more important

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than almost anything else.

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