[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:00.30,0:00:04.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Today I want to talk to you\Nabout the mathematics of love.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:04.94,0:00:06.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, I think that we can all agree
Dialogue: 0,0:00:06.68,0:00:11.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that mathematicians\Nare famously excellent at finding love.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:11.60,0:00:15.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But it's not just\Nbecause of our dashing personalities,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:15.04,0:00:19.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,superior conversational skills\Nand excellent pencil cases.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:19.54,0:00:24.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's also because we've actually done\Nan awful lot of work into the maths
Dialogue: 0,0:00:24.07,0:00:26.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of how to find the perfect partner.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:26.46,0:00:29.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, in my favorite paper\Non the subject, which is entitled,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:29.88,0:00:33.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Why I Don't Have a Girlfriend" --\N(Laughter) --
Dialogue: 0,0:00:33.37,0:00:37.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Peter Backus tries to rate\Nhis chances of finding love.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:37.09,0:00:39.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, Peter's not a very greedy man.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:39.46,0:00:41.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Of all of the available women in the U.K.,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:41.54,0:00:44.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,all Peter's looking for\Nis somebody who lives near him,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:44.96,0:00:46.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,somebody in the right age range,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:46.86,0:00:49.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,somebody with a university degree,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:49.67,0:00:51.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,somebody he's likely to get on well with,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:51.82,0:00:53.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,somebody who's likely to be attractive,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:53.90,0:00:56.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,somebody who's likely \Nto find him attractive.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:56.44,0:00:59.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:00:59.44,0:01:04.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And comes up with an estimate\Nof 26 women in the whole of the UK.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:05.44,0:01:07.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's not looking very good, \Nis it Peter?
Dialogue: 0,0:01:07.60,0:01:09.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, just to put that into perspective,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:09.47,0:01:12.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's about 400 times fewer\Nthan the best estimates
Dialogue: 0,0:01:12.57,0:01:16.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of how many intelligent\Nextraterrestrial life forms there are.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:16.80,0:01:21.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it also gives Peter\Na 1 in 285,000 chance
Dialogue: 0,0:01:21.68,0:01:23.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of bumping into any one\Nof these special ladies
Dialogue: 0,0:01:23.90,0:01:25.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on a given night out.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:25.29,0:01:27.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'd like to think\Nthat's why mathematicians
Dialogue: 0,0:01:27.49,0:01:30.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,don't really bother\Ngoing on nights out anymore.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:30.92,0:01:32.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The thing is that I personally
Dialogue: 0,0:01:32.64,0:01:35.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,don't subscribe\Nto such a pessimistic view.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:35.37,0:01:37.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because I know,\Njust as well as all of you do,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:37.60,0:01:40.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that love doesn't really work like that.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:40.19,0:01:45.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Human emotion isn't neatly ordered\Nand rational and easily predictable.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:45.30,0:01:47.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But I also know that that doesn't mean
Dialogue: 0,0:01:47.71,0:01:51.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that mathematics hasn't got something\Nthat it can offer us
Dialogue: 0,0:01:51.02,0:01:54.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because, love, as with most of life,\Nis full of patterns
Dialogue: 0,0:01:54.97,0:01:59.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and mathematics is, ultimately,\Nall about the study of patterns.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:59.04,0:02:03.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Patterns from predicting the weather\Nto the fluctuations in the stock market,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:03.34,0:02:06.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to the movement of the planets\Nor the growth of cities.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:06.75,0:02:09.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And if we're being honest,\Nnone of those things
Dialogue: 0,0:02:09.45,0:02:12.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are exactly neatly ordered\Nand easily predictable, either.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:12.85,0:02:17.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because I believe that mathematics\Nis so powerful that it has the potential
Dialogue: 0,0:02:17.88,0:02:21.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to offer us a new way of looking\Nat almost anything.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:21.63,0:02:25.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Even something as mysterious as love.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:25.19,0:02:26.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so, to try to persuade you
Dialogue: 0,0:02:26.68,0:02:31.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of how totally amazing, excellent\Nand relevant mathematics is,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:31.24,0:02:39.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I want to give you my top three\Nmathematically verifiable tips for love.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:39.98,0:02:41.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Okay, so Top Tip #1:
Dialogue: 0,0:02:41.94,0:02:44.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How to win at online dating.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:46.32,0:02:50.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So my favorite online dating \Nwebsite is OkCupid,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:50.16,0:02:53.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not least because it was started\Nby a group of mathematicians.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:53.57,0:02:55.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, because they're mathematicians,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:55.34,0:02:57.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they have been collecting data
Dialogue: 0,0:02:57.08,0:02:59.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on everybody who uses their site\Nfor almost a decade.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:59.94,0:03:02.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And they've been trying \Nto search for patterns
Dialogue: 0,0:03:02.20,0:03:04.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the way that we talk about ourselves
Dialogue: 0,0:03:04.07,0:03:06.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the way that we \Ninteract with each other
Dialogue: 0,0:03:06.18,0:03:07.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on an online dating website.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:07.88,0:03:10.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And they've come up with some\Nseriously interesting findings.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:10.82,0:03:12.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But my particular favorite
Dialogue: 0,0:03:12.45,0:03:15.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that it turns out\Nthat on an online dating website,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:15.83,0:03:21.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how attractive you are\Ndoes not dictate how popular you are,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:21.68,0:03:25.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and actually, having people\Nthink that you're ugly
Dialogue: 0,0:03:25.39,0:03:28.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,can work to your advantage.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:28.26,0:03:30.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let me show you how this works.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:30.07,0:03:34.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In a thankfully voluntary\Nsection of OkCupid,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:34.56,0:03:37.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you are allowed to rate\Nhow attractive you think people are
Dialogue: 0,0:03:37.56,0:03:40.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on a scale between 1 and 5.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:40.02,0:03:43.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, if we compare this score, \Nthe average score,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:43.36,0:03:46.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to how many messages a\Nselection of people receive,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:46.22,0:03:47.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you can begin to get a sense
Dialogue: 0,0:03:47.88,0:03:51.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of how attractiveness links to popularity\Non an online dating website.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:51.85,0:03:55.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is the graph that the OkCupid guys\Nhave come up with.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:55.18,0:03:58.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the important thing to notice\Nis that it's not totally true
Dialogue: 0,0:03:58.23,0:04:01.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that the more attractive you are,\Nthe more messages you get.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:01.06,0:04:04.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But the question arises then\Nof what is it about people up here
Dialogue: 0,0:04:04.93,0:04:09.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who are so much more popular\Nthan people down here,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:09.57,0:04:12.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,even though they have the\Nsame score of attractiveness?
Dialogue: 0,0:04:12.17,0:04:16.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the reason why is that it's not just \Nstraightforward looks that are important.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:16.70,0:04:19.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So let me try to illustrate their\Nfindings with an example.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:19.48,0:04:23.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So if you take someone like\NPortia de Rossi, for example,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:23.61,0:04:28.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,everybody agrees that Portia de Rossi\Nis a very beautiful woman.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:28.28,0:04:31.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Nobody thinks that she's ugly,\Nbut she's not a supermodel, either.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:31.94,0:04:36.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you compare Portia de Rossi\Nto someone like Sarah Jessica Parker,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:36.56,0:04:39.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,now, a lot of people, \Nmyself included, I should say,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:39.85,0:04:44.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,think that Sarah Jessica Parker\Nis seriously fabulous
Dialogue: 0,0:04:44.32,0:04:46.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and possibly one of the\Nmost beautiful creatures
Dialogue: 0,0:04:46.99,0:04:49.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to have ever have walked \Non the face of the Earth.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:49.64,0:04:55.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But some other people, \Ni.e., most of the Internet,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:55.66,0:05:01.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,seem to think that she looks \Na bit like a horse. (Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:05:01.84,0:05:05.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, I think that if you ask people\Nhow attractive they thought
Dialogue: 0,0:05:05.10,0:05:07.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Sarah Jessica Parker \Nor Portia de Rossi were,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:07.26,0:05:10.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you ask them to give \Nthem a score between 1 and 5,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:10.21,0:05:13.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I reckon that they'd average out\Nto have roughly the same score.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:13.22,0:05:15.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But the way that people would vote\Nwould be very different.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:15.98,0:05:18.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So Portia's scores would\Nall be clustered around the 4
Dialogue: 0,0:05:18.52,0:05:20.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because everybody agrees \Nthat she's very beautiful,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:20.98,0:05:23.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whereas Sarah Jessica Parker\Ncompletely divides opinion.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:23.64,0:05:26.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There'd be a huge spread in her scores.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:26.07,0:05:28.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And actually it's this spread that counts.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:28.39,0:05:30.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's this spread\Nthat makes you more popular
Dialogue: 0,0:05:30.86,0:05:33.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on an online Internet dating website.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:33.06,0:05:34.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So what that means then
Dialogue: 0,0:05:34.24,0:05:36.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that if some people\Nthink that you're attractive,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:36.74,0:05:38.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you're actually better off
Dialogue: 0,0:05:38.68,0:05:43.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,having some other people\Nthink that you're a massive minger.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:43.94,0:05:46.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's much better\Nthan everybody just thinking
Dialogue: 0,0:05:46.17,0:05:47.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that you're the cute girl next door.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:47.90,0:05:50.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, I think this begins \Nmakes a bit more sense
Dialogue: 0,0:05:50.15,0:05:53.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when you think in terms of the people\Nwho are sending these messages.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:53.39,0:05:55.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So let's say that you think\Nsomebody's attractive,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:55.74,0:05:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but you suspect that other people\Nwon't necessarily be that interested.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:59.99,0:06:02.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That means there's\Nless competition for you
Dialogue: 0,0:06:02.54,0:06:04.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it's an extra incentive\Nfor you to get in touch.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:04.98,0:06:07.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Whereas compare that \Nto if you think somebody is attractive
Dialogue: 0,0:06:07.80,0:06:11.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but you suspect that everybody \Nis going to think they're attractive.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:11.06,0:06:14.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, why would you bother \Nhumiliating yourself, let's be honest?
Dialogue: 0,0:06:14.63,0:06:16.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Here's where the really\Ninteresting part comes.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:16.90,0:06:21.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because when people choose the pictures\Nthat they use on an online dating website,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:21.38,0:06:23.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they often try to minimize the things
Dialogue: 0,0:06:23.67,0:06:27.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that they think some people \Nwill find unattractive.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:27.16,0:06:31.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The classic example is people\Nwho are, perhaps, a little bit overweight
Dialogue: 0,0:06:31.46,0:06:34.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,deliberately choosing \Na very cropped photo,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:34.92,0:06:36.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or bald men, for example,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:36.68,0:06:39.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,deliberately choosing pictures\Nwhere they're wearing hats.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:39.48,0:06:42.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But actually this is the opposite \Nof what you should do
Dialogue: 0,0:06:42.14,0:06:43.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if you want to be successful.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:43.54,0:06:48.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You should really, instead, play up to \Nwhatever it is that makes you different,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:48.36,0:06:52.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,even if you think that some people\Nwill find it unattractive.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:52.30,0:06:55.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because the people who fancy you\Nare just going to fancy you anyway,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:55.54,0:07:00.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the unimportant losers who don't,\Nwell, they only play up to your advantage.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:00.50,0:07:02.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Okay, Top Tip #2:\NHow to pick the perfect partner.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:02.90,0:07:05.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So let's imagine then\Nthat you're a roaring success
Dialogue: 0,0:07:05.62,0:07:07.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on the dating scene.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:07.09,0:07:11.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But the question arises \Nof how do you then convert that success
Dialogue: 0,0:07:11.40,0:07:15.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,into longer-term happiness\Nand in particular,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:15.19,0:07:19.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how do you decide\Nwhen is the right time to settle down?
Dialogue: 0,0:07:19.44,0:07:22.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now generally,\Nit's not advisable to just cash in
Dialogue: 0,0:07:22.27,0:07:24.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and marry the first person\Nwho comes along
Dialogue: 0,0:07:24.29,0:07:26.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and shows you any interest at all.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:26.50,0:07:29.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But, equally, you don't really \Nwant to leave it too long
Dialogue: 0,0:07:29.66,0:07:32.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if you want to maximize your \Nchance of long-term happiness.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:32.66,0:07:35.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As my favorite author, \NJane Austen, puts it,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:35.84,0:07:38.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"An unmarried woman of seven and twenty
Dialogue: 0,0:07:38.06,0:07:41.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,can never hope to feel or\Ninspire affection again."
Dialogue: 0,0:07:41.73,0:07:43.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:07:43.72,0:07:47.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thanks a lot, Jane.\NWhat do you know about love?
Dialogue: 0,0:07:47.84,0:07:49.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So the question is then,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:49.39,0:07:51.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how do you know when \Nis the right time to settle down
Dialogue: 0,0:07:51.100,0:07:54.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,given all the people \Nthat you can date in your lifetime?
Dialogue: 0,0:07:54.68,0:07:58.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thankfully, there's a rather delicious bit\Nof mathematics that we can use
Dialogue: 0,0:07:58.35,0:08:00.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to help us out here, called\Noptimal stopping theory.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:00.87,0:08:02.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So let's imagine then,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:02.77,0:08:05.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that you start dating when you're 15
Dialogue: 0,0:08:05.04,0:08:09.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and ideally, you'd like to be married\Nby the time that you're 35.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:09.13,0:08:10.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And there's a number of people
Dialogue: 0,0:08:10.67,0:08:13.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that you could potentially\Ndate across your lifetime,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:13.15,0:08:15.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they'll be at varying \Nlevels of goodness.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:15.31,0:08:18.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now the rules are that once \Nyou cash in and get married,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:18.20,0:08:20.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you can't look ahead to see\Nwhat you could have had,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:20.90,0:08:23.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and equally, you can't go back\Nand change your mind.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:23.51,0:08:25.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In my experience at least,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:25.08,0:08:27.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I find that typically people don't\Nmuch like being recalled
Dialogue: 0,0:08:27.90,0:08:33.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,years after being passed up \Nfor somebody else, or that's just me.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:33.32,0:08:36.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So the math says then\Nthat what you should do
Dialogue: 0,0:08:36.53,0:08:39.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the first 37 percent \Nof your dating window,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:39.56,0:08:43.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you should just reject everybody\Nas serious marriage potential.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:43.100,0:08:45.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:08:45.51,0:08:49.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then, you should pick the \Nnext person that comes along
Dialogue: 0,0:08:49.32,0:08:52.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that is better than everybody \Nthat you've seen before.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:52.15,0:08:53.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So here's the example.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:53.48,0:08:56.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now if you do this, it can be\Nmathematically proven, in fact,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:56.31,0:08:58.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that this is the best possible way
Dialogue: 0,0:08:58.98,0:09:03.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of maximizing your chances \Nof finding the perfect partner.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:03.44,0:09:07.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now unfortunately, I have to tell you that\Nthis method does come with some risks.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:08.38,0:09:13.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For instance, imagine if \Nyour perfect partner appeared
Dialogue: 0,0:09:13.07,0:09:16.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,during your first 37 percent.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:16.23,0:09:18.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, unfortunately, \Nyou'd have to reject them.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:18.94,0:09:21.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:09:21.65,0:09:23.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, if you're following the maths,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:23.100,0:09:25.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm afraid no one else comes along
Dialogue: 0,0:09:25.66,0:09:27.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's better than anyone\Nyou've seen before,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:27.79,0:09:32.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so you have to go on \Nrejecting everyone and die alone.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:32.09,0:09:33.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:09:34.74,0:09:39.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Probably surrounded by cats\Nnibbling at your remains.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:39.62,0:09:43.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Okay, another risk is, \Nlet's imagine, instead,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:43.42,0:09:46.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that the first people that you dated\Nin your first 37 percent
Dialogue: 0,0:09:46.67,0:09:50.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are just incredibly dull,\Nboring, terrible people.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:50.51,0:09:53.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, that's okay, because \Nyou're in your rejection phase,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:53.23,0:09:55.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so thats fine, \Nyou can reject them.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:55.07,0:09:58.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But then imagine, the next\Nperson to come along
Dialogue: 0,0:09:58.54,0:10:02.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is just marginally less boring, \Ndull and terrible
Dialogue: 0,0:10:02.88,0:10:04.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than everybody that you've seen before.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:04.76,0:10:08.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, if you are following the maths,\NI'm afraid you have to marry them
Dialogue: 0,0:10:08.96,0:10:12.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and end up in a relationship\Nwhich is, frankly, suboptimal.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:12.38,0:10:13.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Sorry about that.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:13.46,0:10:15.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But I do think that there's\Nan opportunity here
Dialogue: 0,0:10:15.66,0:10:18.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for Hallmark to cash in on\Nand really cater for this market.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:18.81,0:10:20.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A Valentine's Day card like this.\N(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:10:20.90,0:10:24.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"My darling husband, you\Nare marginally less terrible
Dialogue: 0,0:10:24.92,0:10:27.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than the first 37 percent\Nof people I dated."
Dialogue: 0,0:10:27.97,0:10:33.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's actually more romantic\Nthan I normally manage.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:33.46,0:10:38.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Okay, so this method doesn't give\Nyou a 100 percent success rate,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:38.14,0:10:41.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but there's no other possible\Nstrategy that can do any better.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:41.44,0:10:44.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And actually, in the wild,\Nthere are certain types
Dialogue: 0,0:10:44.10,0:10:47.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of fish which follow and\Nemploy this exact strategy.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:47.82,0:10:50.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So they reject every possible \Nsuitor that turns up
Dialogue: 0,0:10:50.46,0:10:53.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the first 37 percent \Nof the mating season,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:53.41,0:10:56.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then they pick the next fish\Nthat comes along after that window
Dialogue: 0,0:10:56.94,0:10:59.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's, I don't know, bigger and burlier
Dialogue: 0,0:10:59.00,0:11:01.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than all of the fish \Nthat they've seen before.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:01.52,0:11:06.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I also think that subconsciously,\Nhumans, we do sort of do this anyway.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:06.20,0:11:09.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We give ourselves a little bit of time\Nto play the field,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:09.61,0:11:13.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,get a feel for the marketplace \Nor whatever when we're young.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:13.12,0:11:18.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then we only start looking seriously\Nat potential marriage candidates
Dialogue: 0,0:11:18.02,0:11:19.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,once we hit our mid-to-late 20s.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:19.91,0:11:22.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think this is conclusive proof,\Nif ever it were needed,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:22.72,0:11:27.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that everybody's brains are prewired \Nto be just a little bit mathematical.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:27.62,0:11:29.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Okay, so that was Top Tip #2.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:29.48,0:11:32.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, Top Tip #3: How to avoid divorce.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:32.73,0:11:35.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Okay, so let's imagine then\Nthat you picked your perfect partner
Dialogue: 0,0:11:35.87,0:11:40.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you're settling into\Na lifelong relationship with them.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:40.64,0:11:44.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, I like to think that everybody\Nwould ideally like to avoid divorce,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:44.72,0:11:49.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,apart from, I don't know, \NPiers Morgan's wife, maybe?
Dialogue: 0,0:11:50.18,0:11:52.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But it's a sad fact of modern life
Dialogue: 0,0:11:52.48,0:11:56.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that 1 in 2 marriages in the\NStates ends in divorce,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:56.28,0:11:59.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with the rest of the world\Nnot being far behind.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:59.58,0:12:01.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, you can be forgiven, perhaps
Dialogue: 0,0:12:01.68,0:12:05.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for thinking that the arguments\Nthat precede a marital breakup
Dialogue: 0,0:12:05.34,0:12:08.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are not an ideal candidate\Nfor mathematical investigation.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:08.88,0:12:10.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For one thing, it's very hard to know
Dialogue: 0,0:12:10.78,0:12:13.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what you should be measuring \Nor what you should be quantifying.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:13.83,0:12:20.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But this didn't stop a psychologist,\NJohn Gottman, who did exactly that.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:20.41,0:12:25.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Gottman observed hundreds of couples\Nhaving a conversation
Dialogue: 0,0:12:25.60,0:12:28.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and recorded, well, \Neverything you can think of.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:28.06,0:12:30.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So he recorded what was said \Nin the conversation,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:30.55,0:12:32.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,he recorded their skin conductivity,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:32.61,0:12:34.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,he recorded their facial expressions,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:34.53,0:12:36.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,their heart rates, their blood pressure,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:36.87,0:12:43.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,basically everything apart from whether\Nor not the wife was actually always right,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:43.32,0:12:46.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which incidentally she totally is.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:46.35,0:12:49.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But what Gottman and his team found
Dialogue: 0,0:12:49.27,0:12:51.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was that one of the\Nmost important predictors
Dialogue: 0,0:12:51.77,0:12:53.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for whether or not a couple\Nis going to get divorced
Dialogue: 0,0:12:53.92,0:12:59.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was how positive or negative each \Npartner was being in the conversation.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:59.02,0:13:01.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, couples that were very low-risk
Dialogue: 0,0:13:01.63,0:13:05.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,scored a lot more positive points\Non Gottman's scale than negative.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:05.86,0:13:08.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Whereas bad relationships,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:08.00,0:13:10.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by which I mean, probably\Ngoing to get divorced,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:10.79,0:13:15.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they found themselves getting \Ninto a spiral of negativity.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:15.40,0:13:17.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now just by using these very simple ideas,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:17.76,0:13:20.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Gottman and his group were able to predict
Dialogue: 0,0:13:20.26,0:13:23.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whether a given couple\Nwas going to get divorced
Dialogue: 0,0:13:23.10,0:13:25.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with a 90 percent accuracy.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:25.76,0:13:29.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But it wasn't until he teamed up\Nwith a mathematician, James Murray,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:29.15,0:13:31.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that they really started to understand
Dialogue: 0,0:13:31.29,0:13:35.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what causes these negativity spirals \Nand how they occur.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:35.60,0:13:37.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the results that they found
Dialogue: 0,0:13:37.31,0:13:41.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think are just incredibly\Nimpressively simple and interesting.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:41.67,0:13:46.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So these equations, they predict how \Nthe wife or husband is going to respond
Dialogue: 0,0:13:46.00,0:13:47.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in their next turn of the conversation,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:47.97,0:13:50.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how positive or negative\Nthey're going to be.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:50.10,0:13:51.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And these equations, they depend on
Dialogue: 0,0:13:51.90,0:13:54.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the mood of the person \Nwhen they're on their own,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:54.24,0:13:56.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the mood of the person when\Nthey're with their partner,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:56.86,0:13:58.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but most importantly, they depend on
Dialogue: 0,0:13:58.84,0:14:01.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how much the husband and wife\Ninfluence one another.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:01.82,0:14:04.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, I think it's important \Nto point out at this stage,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:04.53,0:14:07.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that these exact equations \Nhave also been shown
Dialogue: 0,0:14:07.85,0:14:10.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to be perfectly able at describing
Dialogue: 0,0:14:10.50,0:14:14.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what happens between two\Ncountries in an arms race.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:14.26,0:14:16.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:14:18.19,0:14:21.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So that -- an arguing couple\Nspiraling into negativity
Dialogue: 0,0:14:21.90,0:14:23.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and teetering on the brink of divorce --
Dialogue: 0,0:14:23.82,0:14:28.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is actually mathematically equivalent to\Nthe beginning of a nuclear war.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:28.11,0:14:30.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:14:30.61,0:14:33.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But the really important term\Nin this equation
Dialogue: 0,0:14:33.16,0:14:35.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is the influence that people\Nhave on one another,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:35.88,0:14:38.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and in particular, something called \Nthe negativity threshhold.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:38.90,0:14:40.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, the negativity threshold,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:40.58,0:14:45.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you can think of as\Nhow annoying the husband can be
Dialogue: 0,0:14:45.07,0:14:49.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,before the wife starts to get \Nreally pissed off, and vice versa.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:49.25,0:14:54.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, I always thought that good marriages\Nwere about compromise and understanding
Dialogue: 0,0:14:54.41,0:14:57.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and allowing the person to \Nhave the space to be themselves.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:57.26,0:15:00.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I would have thought that perhaps\Nthe most successful relationships
Dialogue: 0,0:15:00.56,0:15:04.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,were ones where there was\Na really high negativity threshold.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:04.02,0:15:05.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Where couples let things go\N
Dialogue: 0,0:15:05.69,0:15:08.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and only brought things up if \Nthey really were a big deal.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:08.49,0:15:12.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But actually, the mathematics\Nand subsequent findings by the team
Dialogue: 0,0:15:12.02,0:15:15.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,have shown the exact opposite is true.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:15.32,0:15:17.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The best couples,\Nor the most successful couples,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:17.71,0:15:21.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are the ones with a really low \Nnegativity threshold.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:21.52,0:15:25.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These are the couples that don't\Nlet anything go unnoticed
Dialogue: 0,0:15:25.38,0:15:28.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and allow each other \Nsome room to complain.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:28.40,0:15:33.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These are the couples that are continually\Ntrying to repair their own relationship,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:33.73,0:15:36.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that have a much more positive\Noutlook on their marriage.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:36.42,0:15:38.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Couples that don't let things go
Dialogue: 0,0:15:38.52,0:15:44.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and couples that don't let trivial things\Nend up being a really big deal.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:44.43,0:15:50.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now of course, it takes bit more than \Njust a low negativity threshold
Dialogue: 0,0:15:50.02,0:15:54.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and not compromising to\Nhave a successful relationship.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:54.16,0:15:56.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But I think that it's quite interesting
Dialogue: 0,0:15:56.65,0:15:59.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to know that there is really\Nmathematical evidence
Dialogue: 0,0:15:59.05,0:16:02.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to say that you should never\Nlet the sun go down on your anger.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:02.48,0:16:04.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So those are my top three tips
Dialogue: 0,0:16:04.19,0:16:07.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of how maths can help you\Nwith love and relationships.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:07.38,0:16:09.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But I hope that \Naside from the useless tips,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:09.83,0:16:13.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I also give you a little bit of insight\Ninto the power of mathematics.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:13.68,0:16:18.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because for me, equations \Nand symbols aren't just a thing.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:18.29,0:16:23.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They're a voice that speaks out\Nabout the incredible richness of nature
Dialogue: 0,0:16:23.12,0:16:24.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the startling simplicity
Dialogue: 0,0:16:24.93,0:16:29.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the patterns that twist and turn\Nand warp and evolve all around us,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:29.38,0:16:32.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from how the world works to how we behave.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:32.19,0:16:34.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I hope that perhaps,\Nfor just a couple of you,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:34.48,0:16:36.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a little bit of insight into\Nthe mathematics of love
Dialogue: 0,0:16:36.93,0:16:40.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,can persuade you to have \Na little bit more love for mathematics.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:40.13,0:16:41.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thank you.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:41.52,0:16:43.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)