[Script Info] Title: [Events] Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text Dialogue: 0,0:00:00.69,0:00:05.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Today I want to talk to you\Nabout the mathematics of love. Dialogue: 0,0:00:05.37,0:00:07.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think we can all agree \Nthat mathematicians Dialogue: 0,0:00:07.62,0:00:11.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are famously excellent \Nat finding love. Dialogue: 0,0:00:11.60,0:00:15.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But it's not just because\Nof our dashing personalities Dialogue: 0,0:00:15.04,0:00:19.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,our superior conversational skills,\Nour our excellent pencil cases, Dialogue: 0,0:00:19.54,0:00:24.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's also because we've done\Na lot of work into the maths Dialogue: 0,0:00:24.09,0:00:26.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of how to find the perfect partner. Dialogue: 0,0:00:26.58,0:00:29.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In my favorite paper on the subject,\Nwhich is entitled, Dialogue: 0,0:00:29.88,0:00:35.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Why I Don't Have a Girlfriend", \NPeter Backus tries to rate Dialogue: 0,0:00:35.12,0:00:37.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,his chances at finding love. Dialogue: 0,0:00:37.09,0:00:39.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, peter is not a \Nvery greedy man. Dialogue: 0,0:00:39.46,0:00:41.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Of all of the available \Nwomen in the UK, Dialogue: 0,0:00:41.54,0:00:45.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,all that Peter's looking for is \Nsomebody who lives near him, Dialogue: 0,0:00:45.24,0:00:47.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,somebody in the \Nright age range, Dialogue: 0,0:00:47.08,0:00:49.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,somebody with a\Nuniversity degree, Dialogue: 0,0:00:49.100,0:00:51.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,somebody he's likely \Nto get on well with, Dialogue: 0,0:00:51.82,0:00:53.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,somebody attractive, Dialogue: 0,0:00:53.90,0:00:57.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,somebody who is likely \Nto find him attractive Dialogue: 0,0:00:57.17,0:00:59.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter), Dialogue: 0,0:00:59.44,0:01:02.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and comes up with an \Nestimate of 26 women Dialogue: 0,0:01:02.95,0:01:05.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the whole of the UK. Dialogue: 0,0:01:05.44,0:01:07.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's not looking very good, \Nis it Peter? Dialogue: 0,0:01:07.96,0:01:09.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now just to put that\Ninto perspective, Dialogue: 0,0:01:09.47,0:01:12.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's about 400 times fewer\Nthan the best estimates Dialogue: 0,0:01:12.57,0:01:17.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of how many intelligent\Nextra-terrestrial life forms there are. Dialogue: 0,0:01:17.09,0:01:21.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it also gives Peter a \N1 in 285,000 chance Dialogue: 0,0:01:21.68,0:01:23.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of bumping into any one\Nof these special ladies Dialogue: 0,0:01:23.90,0:01:25.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on a night out. Dialogue: 0,0:01:25.84,0:01:28.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'd like to think that's why\Nmathematicians don't really bother Dialogue: 0,0:01:28.03,0:01:30.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,going on nights out anymore. Dialogue: 0,0:01:30.92,0:01:32.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The thing is is that I personally Dialogue: 0,0:01:32.49,0:01:35.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,don't subscribe to \Nsuch a pessimistic view. Dialogue: 0,0:01:35.25,0:01:37.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I know, just as well \Nas you do, Dialogue: 0,0:01:37.81,0:01:40.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that love doesn't \Nreally work like that Dialogue: 0,0:01:40.19,0:01:42.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,human emotion\Nisn't neatly ordered, Dialogue: 0,0:01:42.76,0:01:45.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,rational, or easily predictable. Dialogue: 0,0:01:45.57,0:01:48.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But I also know that that doesn't\Nmean that mathematics Dialogue: 0,0:01:48.57,0:01:51.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,doesn't have something \Nit can offer us Dialogue: 0,0:01:51.02,0:01:53.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because, love, as \Nwith most of life, Dialogue: 0,0:01:53.21,0:01:54.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is full of patterns Dialogue: 0,0:01:54.96,0:01:59.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and mathematics is, ultimately,\Nall about the study of patterns. Dialogue: 0,0:01:59.30,0:02:01.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,patterns from predicting\Nthe weather, Dialogue: 0,0:02:01.64,0:02:03.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to the fluctuations of \Nthe stock market, Dialogue: 0,0:02:03.62,0:02:05.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to the movement \Nof the planets, Dialogue: 0,0:02:05.16,0:02:06.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or the growth of cities. Dialogue: 0,0:02:06.74,0:02:10.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If we're being honest, none \Nof those things are neatly ordered Dialogue: 0,0:02:10.14,0:02:13.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Or easily predictable, either. Dialogue: 0,0:02:13.09,0:02:15.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because I believe\Nthat mathematics Dialogue: 0,0:02:15.00,0:02:18.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is so powerful that\Nis has the potential Dialogue: 0,0:02:18.29,0:02:21.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to offer us a new way of looking\Nat almost anything. Dialogue: 0,0:02:21.63,0:02:25.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Even something as \Nmysterious as love. Dialogue: 0,0:02:25.19,0:02:26.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so, to try \Nto persuade you Dialogue: 0,0:02:26.68,0:02:31.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of how totally, excellent\Nand relevant mathematics is, Dialogue: 0,0:02:31.24,0:02:40.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I want to give you my top three\Nmathematically verifiable tips for love. Dialogue: 0,0:02:40.72,0:02:41.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Okay, so top tip #1: Dialogue: 0,0:02:41.94,0:02:45.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How to win at online dating. Dialogue: 0,0:02:45.64,0:02:49.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So my favorite \Nonline dating website Dialogue: 0,0:02:49.08,0:02:50.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is OkayCupid, Dialogue: 0,0:02:50.15,0:02:51.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not least because it was Dialogue: 0,0:02:51.31,0:02:53.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,started by a group \Nof mathematicians. Dialogue: 0,0:02:53.76,0:02:55.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now because they're \Nmathematicians, Dialogue: 0,0:02:55.34,0:02:57.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they have been collecting\Ndata on everyone Dialogue: 0,0:02:57.66,0:03:00.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whose been using their site\Nfor almost a decade. Dialogue: 0,0:03:00.43,0:03:01.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And they've been\Ntrying to search Dialogue: 0,0:03:01.78,0:03:04.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for patterns in the way that\Nwe talk about ourselves\N Dialogue: 0,0:03:04.06,0:03:05.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the way that we \Ninteract with each other Dialogue: 0,0:03:05.96,0:03:07.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on online dating websites. Dialogue: 0,0:03:07.77,0:03:10.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And they've come up with\Nseriously interesting findings. Dialogue: 0,0:03:10.98,0:03:13.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But my particular favorite\Nis that it turns out Dialogue: 0,0:03:13.73,0:03:16.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that on an online \Ndating website, Dialogue: 0,0:03:16.01,0:03:17.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how attractive you are Dialogue: 0,0:03:17.91,0:03:21.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,does not dictate \Nhow popular you are Dialogue: 0,0:03:21.68,0:03:25.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and actually having people\Nthink that you're ugly Dialogue: 0,0:03:25.39,0:03:29.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,can work to your advantage. Dialogue: 0,0:03:29.21,0:03:30.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let me show you\Nhow this works. Dialogue: 0,0:03:30.07,0:03:33.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Okay, in a thankfully \Nvoluntary section, Dialogue: 0,0:03:33.28,0:03:37.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you are allowed to rate \Nhow attractive people are Dialogue: 0,0:03:37.64,0:03:40.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,between 1 and 5. Dialogue: 0,0:03:40.02,0:03:43.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And if we compare this score, \Nthis average score Dialogue: 0,0:03:43.36,0:03:46.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to how many messages a\Nselection of people receive, Dialogue: 0,0:03:46.22,0:03:49.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You can begin to get a sense\Nof how attractiveness Dialogue: 0,0:03:49.53,0:03:51.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,links to popularity \Non online dating. Dialogue: 0,0:03:51.85,0:03:53.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So this is a graph \Nthat the online Dialogue: 0,0:03:53.66,0:03:55.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,OkayCupid guys \Nhave come up with Dialogue: 0,0:03:55.87,0:03:57.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the important \Nthing to notice Dialogue: 0,0:03:57.27,0:03:59.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that it's not totally true\Nthat the more attractive you are, Dialogue: 0,0:03:59.53,0:04:01.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the more messages you get. Dialogue: 0,0:04:01.08,0:04:02.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But the question arises then Dialogue: 0,0:04:02.52,0:04:07.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of what is it about people up here\Nwho are so much more popular Dialogue: 0,0:04:07.93,0:04:09.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than people down here Dialogue: 0,0:04:09.55,0:04:12.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,even though they have the\Nsame score of attractiveness? Dialogue: 0,0:04:12.69,0:04:15.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the reason why is that it's\Nnot just straight-forward looks Dialogue: 0,0:04:15.68,0:04:16.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that are important. Dialogue: 0,0:04:16.73,0:04:18.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So let me try to illustrate \Ntheir findings Dialogue: 0,0:04:18.37,0:04:19.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with an example. Dialogue: 0,0:04:19.40,0:04:23.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you take someone \Nlike Portia de Rossi, Dialogue: 0,0:04:23.37,0:04:25.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,everybody agrees \Nthat Portia de Rossi Dialogue: 0,0:04:25.60,0:04:28.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is a very beautiful woman. Dialogue: 0,0:04:28.36,0:04:29.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Nobody thinks \Nthat she's ugly, Dialogue: 0,0:04:29.89,0:04:31.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but she's not a supermodel. Dialogue: 0,0:04:31.98,0:04:33.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you compare \NPortia de Rossi Dialogue: 0,0:04:33.47,0:04:36.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to someone like \NSarah Jessica Parker, Dialogue: 0,0:04:36.75,0:04:40.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,now, a lot of people,\Nmyself included, Dialogue: 0,0:04:40.00,0:04:45.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,think that Sarah Jessica Parker\Nis seriously fabulous Dialogue: 0,0:04:45.20,0:04:47.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and possibly one of the\Nmost beautiful creatures Dialogue: 0,0:04:47.67,0:04:49.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to have ever have walked \Nthe face of the earth. Dialogue: 0,0:04:49.64,0:04:56.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But, some other people, \Ne.i. most of the internet, Dialogue: 0,0:04:56.52,0:04:58.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,seem to think that she \Nlooks a bit like a horse Dialogue: 0,0:04:58.53,0:05:01.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter). Dialogue: 0,0:05:01.82,0:05:05.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, I think that if\Nyou ask people Dialogue: 0,0:05:05.04,0:05:07.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how attractive Sarah Jessica Parker \Nor Portia de Rossi are, Dialogue: 0,0:05:07.26,0:05:10.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you ask them to give \Nthem a score between 1 and 5, Dialogue: 0,0:05:10.21,0:05:13.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I reckon that they would \Naverage out to the same score. Dialogue: 0,0:05:13.37,0:05:14.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But the way that people would vote Dialogue: 0,0:05:14.85,0:05:15.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,would be very different. Dialogue: 0,0:05:15.99,0:05:17.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So Portia's scores would\Nall be clustered around Dialogue: 0,0:05:17.70,0:05:20.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the four because everybody \Nagrees that she's very beautiful. Dialogue: 0,0:05:20.84,0:05:23.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whereas Sarah Jessica Parker\Ndivides opinion. Dialogue: 0,0:05:23.64,0:05:26.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There a huge spread\Nin her scores. Dialogue: 0,0:05:26.32,0:05:28.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And actually it's this\Nspread that counts. Dialogue: 0,0:05:28.39,0:05:30.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's this spread that\Nmakes you more popular Dialogue: 0,0:05:30.86,0:05:33.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on online internet\Ndating websites. Dialogue: 0,0:05:33.26,0:05:34.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So what this means then Dialogue: 0,0:05:34.23,0:05:37.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that if some people think \Nthat you're attractive, Dialogue: 0,0:05:37.10,0:05:40.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you're actually better off\Nhaving some other people Dialogue: 0,0:05:40.47,0:05:44.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,think that you're a massive minger. Dialogue: 0,0:05:44.18,0:05:46.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's much better than\Neverybody thinking Dialogue: 0,0:05:46.21,0:05:48.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that you're the cute\Ngirl next door. Dialogue: 0,0:05:48.49,0:05:50.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,i think that this \Nmakes a bit more sense Dialogue: 0,0:05:50.01,0:05:51.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when you think in terms\Nof the people Dialogue: 0,0:05:51.61,0:05:53.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who are sending \Nthese messages. Dialogue: 0,0:05:53.37,0:05:55.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So let's say that you think\Nsomebody's attractive Dialogue: 0,0:05:55.74,0:05:57.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but you suspect that \Nother people Dialogue: 0,0:05:57.97,0:06:00.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,won't necessarily be \Nthat interested. Dialogue: 0,0:06:00.03,0:06:02.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That means that there is \Nless competition for you Dialogue: 0,0:06:02.82,0:06:04.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that there's \Nan extra incentive Dialogue: 0,0:06:04.24,0:06:05.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for you to get in touch. Dialogue: 0,0:06:05.53,0:06:07.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Whereas compare\Nthat to if you think Dialogue: 0,0:06:07.01,0:06:08.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,somebody is attractive \Nbut you suspect Dialogue: 0,0:06:08.35,0:06:10.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that everybody is going \Nto think they're attractive. Dialogue: 0,0:06:10.66,0:06:13.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, why would you \Nbother humiliating yourself? Dialogue: 0,0:06:13.78,0:06:16.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Here's where the really\Ninteresting part comes. Dialogue: 0,0:06:16.88,0:06:21.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,People choose the pictures that\Nthey use on an online, dating website, Dialogue: 0,0:06:21.74,0:06:23.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they often try to\Nminimize the things Dialogue: 0,0:06:23.67,0:06:27.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that they think people \Nwill find unattractive. Dialogue: 0,0:06:27.16,0:06:31.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The classic example is that people\Nwho are a little bit overweight Dialogue: 0,0:06:31.46,0:06:35.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,deliberately choosing \Na very cropped photo. Dialogue: 0,0:06:35.39,0:06:36.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or bald men, for example, Dialogue: 0,0:06:36.68,0:06:39.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,deliberatly choosing pictures\Nwhere they're wearing hats. Dialogue: 0,0:06:39.94,0:06:42.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But this is the opposite of \Nwhat you should do Dialogue: 0,0:06:42.79,0:06:43.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if you want to be successful. Dialogue: 0,0:06:43.54,0:06:46.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You should really, instead, play\Nup to whatever it is Dialogue: 0,0:06:46.82,0:06:48.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that makes you different. Dialogue: 0,0:06:48.36,0:06:50.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Even if you think that \Nsome people Dialogue: 0,0:06:50.23,0:06:52.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,will find you unattractive. Dialogue: 0,0:06:52.71,0:06:53.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because the people \Nwho fancy you Dialogue: 0,0:06:53.84,0:06:55.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are just going to \Nfancy you anyway, Dialogue: 0,0:06:55.58,0:06:57.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the unimportant\Nlosers who don't Dialogue: 0,0:06:57.72,0:07:00.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,well, they only play out \Nto your advantage. Dialogue: 0,0:07:00.50,0:07:02.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Okay, top tip #2: How to pick\Nthe perfect partner. Dialogue: 0,0:07:02.90,0:07:05.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So let's imagine then that\Nyou're a roaring success Dialogue: 0,0:07:05.91,0:07:07.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on the dating scene. Dialogue: 0,0:07:07.37,0:07:11.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But the question arises of\Nhow do you then convert Dialogue: 0,0:07:11.40,0:07:14.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that success into \Nlonger-term happiness Dialogue: 0,0:07:14.51,0:07:15.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and in particular, Dialogue: 0,0:07:15.19,0:07:19.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how do you decide when is the\Nright time to settle down? Dialogue: 0,0:07:19.44,0:07:22.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now generally, it's not \Nadvisable to just cash in Dialogue: 0,0:07:22.46,0:07:26.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on the first person who comes along\Nand shows you any interest at all. Dialogue: 0,0:07:26.77,0:07:29.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But, equally, you don't want\Nto leave it too long Dialogue: 0,0:07:29.97,0:07:32.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if you want to maximize your \Nchances of longterm happiness. Dialogue: 0,0:07:32.66,0:07:35.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As my favorite author, \NJane Austen put it, Dialogue: 0,0:07:35.84,0:07:38.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"An unmarried woman \Nof seven and twenty Dialogue: 0,0:07:38.06,0:07:42.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,can never hope to feel or\Ninspire affection again." Dialogue: 0,0:07:42.01,0:07:44.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter). Dialogue: 0,0:07:44.39,0:07:45.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thanks, Jane. Dialogue: 0,0:07:45.69,0:07:49.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So the question is then, Dialogue: 0,0:07:49.71,0:07:51.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how do you know when \Nis the right time \N Dialogue: 0,0:07:51.42,0:07:53.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to settle down given \Nall the people Dialogue: 0,0:07:53.36,0:07:54.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you can date in \Nyour lifetime? Dialogue: 0,0:07:54.26,0:07:56.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thankfully, there is a \Nrather delicious bit Dialogue: 0,0:07:56.94,0:07:58.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of mathematics that\Nwe can use to Dialogue: 0,0:07:58.49,0:08:00.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,help us out here. Dialogue: 0,0:08:00.40,0:08:02.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So lets imagine then, Dialogue: 0,0:08:02.28,0:08:06.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that you start \Ndating when you're 15 Dialogue: 0,0:08:06.09,0:08:09.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and ideally, you'd like to be\Nmarried by the time you're 35. Dialogue: 0,0:08:09.72,0:08:12.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The number of people that you\Ncould potentially date Dialogue: 0,0:08:12.02,0:08:13.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,across your lifetime, Dialogue: 0,0:08:13.24,0:08:14.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they'll be at kind of varying \Nlevels of goodness. Dialogue: 0,0:08:14.51,0:08:17.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now the rules are \Nthat when you cash in Dialogue: 0,0:08:17.47,0:08:18.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and get married, Dialogue: 0,0:08:18.27,0:08:20.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you can't look ahead and see\Nwhat you could have had, Dialogue: 0,0:08:20.83,0:08:23.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and equally, you can't go back\Nand change your mind. Dialogue: 0,0:08:23.81,0:08:25.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In my experience at least, Dialogue: 0,0:08:25.35,0:08:29.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,i find that people don't typically\Nlike being recalled Dialogue: 0,0:08:29.67,0:08:30.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,years after being \Npassed up. Dialogue: 0,0:08:30.96,0:08:33.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For somebody else, \Nor that's just me. Dialogue: 0,0:08:33.36,0:08:36.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So the math says then\Nthat what you should do Dialogue: 0,0:08:36.53,0:08:39.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the first 37 percent \Nof your dating window, Dialogue: 0,0:08:39.76,0:08:45.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you should reject everybody \Nas serious marriage potential. Dialogue: 0,0:08:45.49,0:08:49.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then, you should pick the \Nnext person who comes along Dialogue: 0,0:08:49.32,0:08:53.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who is better than everyone \Nthat you've seen before. Dialogue: 0,0:08:53.41,0:08:53.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So here's the example. Dialogue: 0,0:08:53.97,0:08:56.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now if you do this, it can be\Nmathematically proven in fact Dialogue: 0,0:08:56.08,0:08:59.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that this is the best\Npossible way of Dialogue: 0,0:08:59.16,0:09:03.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,maximizing your chances of\Nfinding the perfect partner. Dialogue: 0,0:09:03.88,0:09:06.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, unfortunately i have to tell \Nyou that this method Dialogue: 0,0:09:06.06,0:09:08.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,does come with some risks. Dialogue: 0,0:09:08.68,0:09:12.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For instance, imagine if your \Nperfect partner Dialogue: 0,0:09:12.63,0:09:16.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,appeared during your \Nfirst 37 percent. Dialogue: 0,0:09:16.23,0:09:22.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now unfortunately, \Nyou'd have to reject them. Dialogue: 0,0:09:22.36,0:09:24.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, if you're \Nfollowing the maths, Dialogue: 0,0:09:24.37,0:09:26.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm afraid that if no one\Nelse comes along Dialogue: 0,0:09:26.08,0:09:27.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,better than anyone\Nyou've seen before Dialogue: 0,0:09:27.64,0:09:30.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so you have to go \Non rejecting everyone Dialogue: 0,0:09:30.76,0:09:32.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and die alone. Dialogue: 0,0:09:32.14,0:09:34.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter). Dialogue: 0,0:09:34.74,0:09:39.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Probably surrounded by cats\Nnibbling at your remains. Dialogue: 0,0:09:39.62,0:09:41.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Okay, another risk is, \Nlet's imagine instead Dialogue: 0,0:09:41.99,0:09:45.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that the first people\Nthat you dated Dialogue: 0,0:09:45.12,0:09:51.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in your first 37 percent are just \Nincredibly dull, terrible people. Dialogue: 0,0:09:51.04,0:09:52.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, that's okay, cause you're in \Nyour rejection phase, Dialogue: 0,0:09:52.81,0:09:54.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so you can reject them. Dialogue: 0,0:09:54.73,0:09:58.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But, then imagine that the\Nnext person who comes along Dialogue: 0,0:09:58.54,0:10:02.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is just marginally less boring, \Ndull and terrible Dialogue: 0,0:10:02.88,0:10:04.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than everybody that \Nyou've seen before. Dialogue: 0,0:10:04.81,0:10:06.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, if you are following\Nthe maths Dialogue: 0,0:10:06.28,0:10:09.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm afraid that you have \Nto marry them Dialogue: 0,0:10:09.48,0:10:12.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and end up in a relationship\Nthat is, frankly, suboptimal. Dialogue: 0,0:10:12.78,0:10:13.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Sorry about that. Dialogue: 0,0:10:13.97,0:10:15.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But I do think that there's\Nan opportunity here Dialogue: 0,0:10:15.66,0:10:18.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for hallmark to cash in on\Nand really cater to this market. Dialogue: 0,0:10:18.81,0:10:20.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with a valentines day \Ncard like this: Dialogue: 0,0:10:20.80,0:10:24.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"My darling husband, you\Nare marginally less terrible Dialogue: 0,0:10:24.92,0:10:27.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than the first 37 percent\Nof people I dated." Dialogue: 0,0:10:27.97,0:10:33.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's actually more romantic\Nthan I normally manage. Dialogue: 0,0:10:33.46,0:10:38.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Okay, so this method doesn't give\Nyou a 100 percent success rate. Dialogue: 0,0:10:38.14,0:10:41.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but there's no other possible\Nstrategy that can do any better. Dialogue: 0,0:10:41.44,0:10:44.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And actually, in the wild\Nthere are certain Dialogue: 0,0:10:44.10,0:10:47.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,types of fish that follow\Nthis exact strategy. Dialogue: 0,0:10:47.91,0:10:50.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So they reject every possible \Nsuitor that turns up in Dialogue: 0,0:10:50.68,0:10:53.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the first 37 percent \Nof the mating season, Dialogue: 0,0:10:53.41,0:10:55.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then they \Npick the next fish Dialogue: 0,0:10:55.05,0:10:58.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who comes along after\Nthat window who is, Dialogue: 0,0:10:58.24,0:11:02.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,i don't know, bigger and burlier\Nthan all the fish that they've seen. Dialogue: 0,0:11:02.02,0:11:03.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I also think that \Nsubconsciously, Dialogue: 0,0:11:03.55,0:11:06.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,humans, we sort of \Ndo this anyway. Dialogue: 0,0:11:06.65,0:11:10.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We give ourselves enough\Ntime to play the field, Dialogue: 0,0:11:10.44,0:11:12.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,get a feel for the\Nmarketplace or whatever, Dialogue: 0,0:11:12.90,0:11:13.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when we're young. Dialogue: 0,0:11:13.42,0:11:15.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then we only start \Nlooking seriously Dialogue: 0,0:11:15.36,0:11:18.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at potential marriage\Ncandidates Dialogue: 0,0:11:18.07,0:11:19.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when we hit our \Nmid-to-late 20's. Dialogue: 0,0:11:19.91,0:11:21.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think this is \Nconclusive proof, Dialogue: 0,0:11:21.62,0:11:22.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if ever it were needed , Dialogue: 0,0:11:22.77,0:11:24.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that everybody's brains \Nare prewired to be Dialogue: 0,0:11:24.76,0:11:27.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,just a little bit mathematical. Dialogue: 0,0:11:27.62,0:11:29.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Okay, so that was top tip #2. Dialogue: 0,0:11:29.48,0:11:33.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Top tip #3: How to avoid divorce. Dialogue: 0,0:11:33.54,0:11:35.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Okay so let's imagine then that you\Npicked the perfect partner Dialogue: 0,0:11:35.87,0:11:40.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you're settling into a \Nlifelong relationship with them. Dialogue: 0,0:11:40.64,0:11:42.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, I like to think \Nthat everybody Dialogue: 0,0:11:42.55,0:11:50.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,would like to avoid divorce\Nfrom Piers Morgan's wife, maybe? Dialogue: 0,0:11:50.10,0:11:52.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But it's a sad fact \Nin modern life Dialogue: 0,0:11:52.48,0:11:56.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that 1 in 2 marriages \Nend in divorce, Dialogue: 0,0:11:56.28,0:12:00.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with the rest of the world\Nnot being far behind. Dialogue: 0,0:12:00.08,0:12:01.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, you can be forgiven, perhaps Dialogue: 0,0:12:01.68,0:12:05.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for thinking that the arguments\Nthat precede a marital breakup Dialogue: 0,0:12:05.34,0:12:09.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are not an ideal candidate\Nfor mathematical investigation. Dialogue: 0,0:12:09.33,0:12:10.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For one, it's very \Nhard to know Dialogue: 0,0:12:10.78,0:12:13.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what you should be measuring \Nand what you should be quantifying. Dialogue: 0,0:12:13.83,0:12:17.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But this didn't stop a\Npsychologist, John Gottman, Dialogue: 0,0:12:17.22,0:12:20.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who did exactly that. Dialogue: 0,0:12:20.38,0:12:22.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He observed, Gottman observed, Dialogue: 0,0:12:22.35,0:12:25.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,hundreds of couples \Nhaving a conversation Dialogue: 0,0:12:25.78,0:12:28.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and recorded well, everything \Nyou could think of. Dialogue: 0,0:12:28.16,0:12:30.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So he recorded what was said \Nin the conversation. Dialogue: 0,0:12:30.58,0:12:32.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He recorded skin conductivity, Dialogue: 0,0:12:32.99,0:12:34.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,he recorded their facial expressions, Dialogue: 0,0:12:34.53,0:12:36.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,heart rates, their blood pressure Dialogue: 0,0:12:36.87,0:12:43.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,basically everything apart from whether\Nor ont the wife was always right, Dialogue: 0,0:12:43.32,0:12:45.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which incidentally she totally is. Dialogue: 0,0:12:45.19,0:12:49.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But what Gottman found, what\NGottman and his team found , Dialogue: 0,0:12:49.27,0:12:52.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was that one of the\Nmost important predictors Dialogue: 0,0:12:52.31,0:12:53.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for whether or not a couple\Nis going to get divorced Dialogue: 0,0:12:53.92,0:12:59.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is how positive or negative each\Npartner was being in the conversation. Dialogue: 0,0:12:59.21,0:13:01.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now couples that were \Nvery low risk Dialogue: 0,0:13:01.63,0:13:05.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,scored a lot more positive on\NGottman's scale than negative Dialogue: 0,0:13:05.86,0:13:08.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Whereas bad relationship, Dialogue: 0,0:13:08.07,0:13:10.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as in, those that are probably\Ngoing to get divorced, Dialogue: 0,0:13:10.96,0:13:15.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they found themselves getting \Ninto a spiral of negativity. Dialogue: 0,0:13:15.84,0:13:17.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now just by using these \Nvery simple ideas, Dialogue: 0,0:13:17.76,0:13:20.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Gottman and his group\Nwere able to predict Dialogue: 0,0:13:20.50,0:13:23.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whether a given couple\Nwas going to get divorced Dialogue: 0,0:13:23.10,0:13:25.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with a 90 percent accuracy. Dialogue: 0,0:13:25.76,0:13:27.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But it wasn't until he teamed up Dialogue: 0,0:13:27.47,0:13:29.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with a mathematician\NJames Murray Dialogue: 0,0:13:29.41,0:13:31.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that they really started to\Nunderstand what caused Dialogue: 0,0:13:31.89,0:13:35.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,these negativity spirals \Nand how they occur. Dialogue: 0,0:13:35.60,0:13:37.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the results that \Nthey found, Dialogue: 0,0:13:37.31,0:13:42.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think are just incredibly,\Nimpressively, simple and interesting. Dialogue: 0,0:13:42.81,0:13:44.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So these equations, \Nthey predict Dialogue: 0,0:13:44.32,0:13:46.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how the wife or husband\Nis going to respond Dialogue: 0,0:13:46.76,0:13:48.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the next turn\Nof the conversation, Dialogue: 0,0:13:48.50,0:13:49.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how positive or negative\Nthey're going to be. Dialogue: 0,0:13:49.93,0:13:51.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And these equations, \Nthey depend on Dialogue: 0,0:13:51.55,0:13:53.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the mood of the person \Nwhen they're on their own, Dialogue: 0,0:13:53.91,0:13:56.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the mood of the person when they're \Nwith their partner. Dialogue: 0,0:13:56.38,0:13:58.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But most importantly,\Nthey depend on Dialogue: 0,0:13:58.84,0:14:02.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how much the husband and wife\Ninfluence one another. Dialogue: 0,0:14:02.09,0:14:04.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now I think it's important \Nto point out that at this stage, Dialogue: 0,0:14:04.37,0:14:08.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,these exact equations have\Nalso been shown Dialogue: 0,0:14:08.46,0:14:10.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to be perfectly able \Nto describe Dialogue: 0,0:14:10.50,0:14:14.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what happens between two\Ncountries in an arms race. Dialogue: 0,0:14:14.26,0:14:18.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter). Dialogue: 0,0:14:18.46,0:14:20.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So that an arguing couple, Dialogue: 0,0:14:20.86,0:14:22.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,spiraling into negativity, Dialogue: 0,0:14:22.37,0:14:23.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,teetering on the brink of divorce, Dialogue: 0,0:14:23.79,0:14:28.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is actually mathematically equivalent to\Nthe beginning of nuclear war. Dialogue: 0,0:14:28.11,0:14:30.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter). Dialogue: 0,0:14:30.68,0:14:33.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But the really important term\Nin this equation Dialogue: 0,0:14:33.16,0:14:35.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is the influence that people\Nhave on one another, Dialogue: 0,0:14:35.88,0:14:36.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and in particular, Dialogue: 0,0:14:36.70,0:14:39.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,something called the\NNegativity Threshhold. Dialogue: 0,0:14:39.42,0:14:40.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now the Negativity Threshold, Dialogue: 0,0:14:40.77,0:14:44.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you can think of as\Nhow annoying Dialogue: 0,0:14:44.52,0:14:46.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the husband can be \Nbefore the wife Dialogue: 0,0:14:46.19,0:14:50.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,starts to get really pissed of, \Nand vice versa. Dialogue: 0,0:14:50.03,0:14:51.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now I always thought \Nthat good marriages Dialogue: 0,0:14:51.99,0:14:54.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are about compromise \Nand understanding Dialogue: 0,0:14:54.60,0:14:57.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and allowing the person to \Nhave the space to be themselves. Dialogue: 0,0:14:57.62,0:15:00.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I would have thought that Dialogue: 0,0:15:00.39,0:15:02.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,perhaps the most \Nsuccessful relationships Dialogue: 0,0:15:02.86,0:15:04.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are the ones where there is a\Nreally high Negativity Threshold. Dialogue: 0,0:15:04.02,0:15:06.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Where couples let things go\N Dialogue: 0,0:15:06.01,0:15:08.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and only brought things up if \Nthere really were a big deal. Dialogue: 0,0:15:08.56,0:15:12.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But actually, the mathematics\Nand subsequent findings Dialogue: 0,0:15:12.02,0:15:15.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by the team have shown the\Nexact opposite to be true. Dialogue: 0,0:15:15.32,0:15:18.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The best couples or \Nthe most successful couples Dialogue: 0,0:15:18.40,0:15:19.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are the ones are the ones Dialogue: 0,0:15:19.22,0:15:21.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with a really low \NNegativity Threshold. Dialogue: 0,0:15:21.78,0:15:25.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These are the couples that don't\Nlet anything go unnoticed.\N Dialogue: 0,0:15:25.38,0:15:28.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They allow each other some\Nroom to complain. Dialogue: 0,0:15:28.60,0:15:28.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These are the couples that are \Ncontinually trying to repair Dialogue: 0,0:15:28.86,0:15:33.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,their own relationship, Dialogue: 0,0:15:33.81,0:15:36.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that have a much more positive\Noutlook on their marriage. Dialogue: 0,0:15:36.42,0:15:38.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Couples that don't let things go Dialogue: 0,0:15:38.52,0:15:42.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and couples that don't let \Ntrivial things end up being Dialogue: 0,0:15:42.43,0:15:44.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a really big deal. Dialogue: 0,0:15:44.53,0:15:50.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now of course, it takes more than \Njust a low Negativity Threshold Dialogue: 0,0:15:50.02,0:15:54.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and not compromising to\Nhave a successful relationship Dialogue: 0,0:15:54.33,0:15:56.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But i think that\Nit's quite interesting Dialogue: 0,0:15:56.97,0:15:59.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to know that there is really\Nmathematical evidence Dialogue: 0,0:15:59.10,0:16:00.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to support that you \Nthat you should Dialogue: 0,0:16:00.44,0:16:02.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,never let you should go\Ndown on your anger. Dialogue: 0,0:16:02.66,0:16:04.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So those are my top three tips Dialogue: 0,0:16:04.19,0:16:05.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for how maths can help you Dialogue: 0,0:16:05.94,0:16:07.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with love and relationships. Dialogue: 0,0:16:07.36,0:16:09.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But I hope that aside \Nfrom these tips, Dialogue: 0,0:16:09.83,0:16:11.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they also give you\Na little bit of insight Dialogue: 0,0:16:11.72,0:16:13.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,into the power \Nof mathematics, Dialogue: 0,0:16:13.97,0:16:14.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because for me, Dialogue: 0,0:16:14.95,0:16:18.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,equations and symbols\Naren't just a thing, Dialogue: 0,0:16:18.90,0:16:20.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They are a voice \Nthat speaks out Dialogue: 0,0:16:20.36,0:16:23.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about the incredible\Nrichness of nature Dialogue: 0,0:16:23.80,0:16:25.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the startling simplicity\Nin the patterns Dialogue: 0,0:16:25.17,0:16:27.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that twist and turn, Dialogue: 0,0:16:27.31,0:16:28.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and warp and evolve\Naround us. Dialogue: 0,0:16:28.87,0:16:31.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,From how the world works, Dialogue: 0,0:16:31.05,0:16:32.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to how we behave. Dialogue: 0,0:16:32.56,0:16:33.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I hope that perhaps, Dialogue: 0,0:16:33.41,0:16:34.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for just a couple of you, Dialogue: 0,0:16:34.44,0:16:36.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a little bit of insight into\Nthe mathematics of love Dialogue: 0,0:16:36.91,0:16:38.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,can persuade \Nyou to have Dialogue: 0,0:16:38.11,0:16:40.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a little bit more \Nlove for mathematics. Dialogue: 0,0:16:40.31,0:16:40.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thank you. Dialogue: 0,0:16:40.99,0:16:43.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause).