WEBVTT 00:00:00.099 --> 00:00:15.749 34C3 preroll music 00:00:15.749 --> 00:00:22.160 Herald: Hello everybody to the next talk, here at stage Clarke. The next talk will 00:00:22.160 --> 00:00:26.910 be held in English. And here is a quick announcement in German for the 00:00:26.910 --> 00:00:32.833 translation. Der nächste Vortrag wird in Englisch sein. Und wir haben eine deutsche 00:00:32.833 --> 00:00:42.239 Übersetzung unter streaming.c3lingo.org. Und wir haben das auch auf einer Folie. 00:00:42.239 --> 00:00:48.760 Und es wird auch eine französische Übersetzung geben für diesen Vortrag. 00:00:48.760 --> 00:00:55.569 There will also be a french translation, as well as an German translation for the 00:00:55.569 --> 00:01:04.239 next talk. And you can find everything under streaming.c3lingo.org. And, I hope, 00:01:04.239 --> 00:01:18.140 displayed behind me. The next talk is called "Watching the changing Earth". 00:01:18.140 --> 00:01:23.890 Satellite data and change in the gravitational field of the earth can tell 00:01:23.890 --> 00:01:29.939 us a lot, especially when there's so much public domain satelite data coming in from 00:01:29.939 --> 00:01:36.109 different projects or maybe CC-BY satellite data. And how this is done, this 00:01:36.109 --> 00:01:43.539 new knowledge finding out of this big heap of data, this will be explained by 00:01:43.539 --> 00:01:50.399 Manuel in the talk. He dropped stuff to see if gravity still works, or, in fancy 00:01:50.399 --> 00:02:00.045 words, he does gravimetric methods and sensory in geodesy. Is that pronounced 00:02:00.045 --> 00:02:06.210 right? I'm not sure, but give a big hand and a round of applause for our speaker 00:02:06.210 --> 00:02:09.860 Manuel. Applause 00:02:09.860 --> 00:02:26.330 No Audio Manuel: Geiler Scheiß. Oh, das war Sound. 00:02:26.330 --> 00:02:29.860 So again, so hello and welcome to my presentation on watching the changing 00:02:29.860 --> 00:02:35.540 earth. This year's call for papers for the Congress offered me the opportunity to 00:02:35.540 --> 00:02:42.190 talk about my work in the related fields, which is gravity. As far as Congress is 00:02:42.190 --> 00:02:46.870 concerned, a misunderstood force of nature. So in the following couple of 00:02:46.870 --> 00:02:53.200 minutes, I want to talk about gravity, gravitation, about the GRACE satellite 00:02:53.200 --> 00:02:59.180 mission, which maps the earth gravity field every month, about the gravity 00:02:59.180 --> 00:03:03.790 fields, and I will show good results and then we will go forward into the future. 00:03:03.790 --> 00:03:11.080 That's nice. So it's actually called, actually called geodesy. Let me give you a 00:03:11.080 --> 00:03:16.480 short introduction on geodesy. Friedrich Robert Helmert defined it in 1880 at as 00:03:16.480 --> 00:03:21.320 the science of mapping and measuring the earth on its surface, and this still holds 00:03:21.320 --> 00:03:29.752 up today. It depends on your methods and applications, but he was correct. The most 00:03:29.752 --> 00:03:34.611 known profession is probably land surveying, people with colorful 00:03:34.611 --> 00:03:39.530 instruments and traffic cones. You find them on construction sites, on the side of 00:03:39.530 --> 00:03:44.610 the road, but we actually have a lot of applications not only in geodesy but in 00:03:44.610 --> 00:03:49.590 related fields like geophysics, fundamental physics, if you want to build 00:03:49.590 --> 00:03:57.010 an autonomous car you need geodesists, metrology. This talk is specifically about 00:03:57.010 --> 00:04:02.040 physical geodesy, which is the mapping of the gravitational field of the earth, and 00:04:02.040 --> 00:04:07.650 in this case specifically with satellites. So I drop stuff on the earth, which is 00:04:07.650 --> 00:04:15.300 terrestrial gravimetry, this talk is about satellite gravimetry. Now gravity and 00:04:15.300 --> 00:04:19.940 gravitation, we usually talk about gravitational potential. This is a scalar 00:04:19.940 --> 00:04:25.850 field. Gravitational acceleration is the gradient of the gravitational potential 00:04:25.850 --> 00:04:31.840 and when we talk about gravity in geodesy, it's usually the combination of attraction 00:04:31.840 --> 00:04:37.490 of the masses, gravitation, and the centrifugal acceleration, but here we talk 00:04:37.490 --> 00:04:42.361 mostly about gravitation. And the potential can easily be calculated, at 00:04:42.361 --> 00:04:47.850 least according to this very short equation. We have G, which is the 00:04:47.850 --> 00:04:52.870 gravitational constant of the earth, or other planets if you want to do. We have 00:04:52.870 --> 00:04:58.270 an ugly triple integral about the whole earth, and this is basically what breaks 00:04:58.270 --> 00:05:04.330 the neck. We have to integrate about the whole mass of the earth, we divide up into 00:05:04.330 --> 00:05:11.020 small parts and we need to know the density of these parts. So, density times 00:05:11.020 --> 00:05:16.170 small volume, you have the mass of the earth if you integrate over it. So what, 00:05:16.170 --> 00:05:19.680 the density of the whole earth is not known. So if you want to calculate the 00:05:19.680 --> 00:05:25.120 potential sufficiently, you would need the density of a penguin on the other side of 00:05:25.120 --> 00:05:29.210 the world. We don't know that. So, what do you do if you cannot calculate the 00:05:29.210 --> 00:05:35.780 quantity? You write a proposal and get all the funding. This is what happened about, 00:05:35.780 --> 00:05:40.470 let's say, twenty years ago, and the result was the gravity recovery and 00:05:40.470 --> 00:05:46.780 climate experiment, or GRACE for short. In this talk, we will only cover gravity 00:05:46.780 --> 00:05:54.530 recovery, so gravity field of the Earth. As we can see, these are two satellites. 00:05:54.530 --> 00:05:59.280 They are flying in the same orbit, and the main instrument is distance measurement 00:05:59.280 --> 00:06:06.400 between these two satellites, Here we see the two satellites prior to its launch in 00:06:06.400 --> 00:06:12.000 2002, and this K-Band Microwave ranging, which is the instrument, gives us a high 00:06:12.000 --> 00:06:17.330 resolution gravity field of the Earth. This is spatial resolution of around 200 00:06:17.330 --> 00:06:23.150 kilometers (km). You might think 200 km is not really high resolution, but we have it 00:06:23.150 --> 00:06:29.300 for the whole planet and not, let's say, for Germany. And also we got the temporal 00:06:29.300 --> 00:06:35.040 variations. So for 15 years now, we have each month, with only a few exceptions, a 00:06:35.040 --> 00:06:41.320 picture of the gravitational field of the earth. The satellites fly in height of 00:06:41.320 --> 00:06:49.290 about 450 km, 220 km apart, and we see here the orbits of a single day. So 15 00:06:49.290 --> 00:06:55.771 orbits per day, and we take one month of data to generate one gravity field. The 00:06:55.771 --> 00:06:59.990 working principle is quite simple: The distance between the two satellites is 00:06:59.990 --> 00:07:05.697 affected by gravity, so we measure the distance and then we calculate gravity. In 00:07:05.697 --> 00:07:10.270 a homogenous gravity field, this is quite simple: Let's say we take a spherical 00:07:10.270 --> 00:07:16.990 earth, it has only a single density, the satellites fly along, and the distance 00:07:16.990 --> 00:07:21.419 between the two satellites does not change. There is nothing to pull one or 00:07:21.419 --> 00:07:27.680 another, they just move along, not changing the distance. Now we introduce a 00:07:27.680 --> 00:07:33.810 mass, let's say a mountain, this can be any mass change or density change 00:07:33.810 --> 00:07:38.940 somewhere inside the earth, and the leading satellite experiences a 00:07:38.940 --> 00:07:44.740 gravitational pull by this mass. And as gravitation falls off with distance, it is 00:07:44.740 --> 00:07:49.330 a stronger than the pull experienced by the trailing satellite. So the distance 00:07:49.330 --> 00:07:58.810 between the two satellites increases. Now, the satellite, the trailing the leading 00:07:58.810 --> 00:08:05.010 satellite has passed the mass, and it is still feeling its gravitational pull, but 00:08:05.010 --> 00:08:10.560 now it is being decelerated because the mass is behind. And the trailing satellite 00:08:10.560 --> 00:08:16.450 is still being accelerated towards the mass. This means the distance between the 00:08:16.450 --> 00:08:24.710 satellites decreases. And finally, the second satellite passes the mass and it 00:08:24.710 --> 00:08:30.669 now also feels the gravitational pull decelerating the satellite. The leading 00:08:30.669 --> 00:08:34.659 satellite is feeling less and less gravitational pull and once both 00:08:34.659 --> 00:08:39.389 satellites left the gravitational influence of this mass, we will have the 00:08:39.389 --> 00:08:44.240 same distance as prior to encountering the mass. So the gravitational acceleration is 00:08:44.240 --> 00:08:51.009 a zero sum at this point. So of course, the Earth is a little more complex than a 00:08:51.009 --> 00:08:56.800 single mountain or a single density anomaly in the ground, but this is the 00:08:56.800 --> 00:09:04.480 basic concept. Now, how do we come from these measurements to the actual 00:09:04.480 --> 00:09:14.292 potential? The formula is basically the same as a couple of slides earlier. We are 00:09:14.292 --> 00:09:21.180 still calculating the potential. It looks more complicated, but we don't have triple 00:09:21.180 --> 00:09:24.930 integrals anymore, and all these quantities in here are basically easily 00:09:24.930 --> 00:09:30.950 calculated. We start with the gravitational constant and the mass of the 00:09:30.950 --> 00:09:35.470 earth, which we can get from a physics book, if we like. And then we have a 00:09:35.470 --> 00:09:42.519 couple of geometric quantities, a and r are basically the size of my earth 00:09:42.519 --> 00:09:48.709 ellipsoid, the major axes and r is the distance from a calculating point, let's 00:09:48.709 --> 00:09:53.220 say this podium, for which I want to know the potential value to the center of the 00:09:53.220 --> 00:09:57.399 ellipsoid. And then we have lambda and theta at the end, these are the 00:09:57.399 --> 00:10:06.029 geographical coordinates of this podium. P is short for the associated Legendre 00:10:06.029 --> 00:10:11.730 functions, also depending solely on geometry, not on the mass of the earth, 00:10:11.730 --> 00:10:16.769 depending on the software where you want to implement this formula, it probably has 00:10:16.769 --> 00:10:22.110 already a function to calculate this, and if not, it is easily done by yourself as 00:10:22.110 --> 00:10:28.429 the formulas look very long, but they are quite simple. The interesting part are the 00:10:28.429 --> 00:10:34.980 two parameters C and S, these are spherical harmonic coefficients. They 00:10:34.980 --> 00:10:38.790 include all the information about the mass of the earth, as measured by the 00:10:38.790 --> 00:10:44.731 satellites. So we have the satellites in space, and the user gets just the C and S 00:10:44.731 --> 00:10:51.277 coefficients, which are a couple of thousand for the gravity field. Implements 00:10:51.277 --> 00:10:56.760 this formula and has a potential value. So, these spherical harmonic coefficients 00:10:56.760 --> 00:11:01.190 are calculated from the GRACE Level 1B products. These are the actual 00:11:01.190 --> 00:11:04.499 measurements done by the satellites. This is the ranging information, the distance 00:11:04.499 --> 00:11:11.120 between satellites, satellite orbits, star camera data, and so on. You add a couple 00:11:11.120 --> 00:11:14.309 of additional models for earth's gravity, which you do not want to include in your 00:11:14.309 --> 00:11:19.550 satellite gravity field, and then you do your processing. This is done by a couple 00:11:19.550 --> 00:11:27.170 of different groups JPL and GFZ, which is a German research center for the 00:11:27.170 --> 00:11:33.329 geosciences. CSR is the center for space research at university Austin. These three 00:11:33.329 --> 00:11:39.810 institutes also provides these GRACE Level 1B data. So they take the raw satellite 00:11:39.810 --> 00:11:47.529 data, process it to theGRACE Level 1B products, which are accessible for all 00:11:47.529 --> 00:11:54.420 users, and then calculate further these coefficients, C and S. But there are also 00:11:54.420 --> 00:11:59.750 additional groups who provide gravity fields who calculate these coefficients, 00:11:59.750 --> 00:12:04.350 for example, Institute for Geodesy of the University of Graz, or the Astronomical 00:12:04.350 --> 00:12:11.660 Institute of the University of Bern. They all have slightly different approaches to 00:12:11.660 --> 00:12:16.160 topic and come to more or less the same conclusions. There are countless papers, 00:12:16.160 --> 00:12:20.689 comparing these different gravity fields with each other, but the user usually 00:12:20.689 --> 00:12:25.829 starts with the coefficients C and S, and then it takes a formula like the one on 00:12:25.829 --> 00:12:31.639 top of this slide and calculates your gravity value or whatever you want. Now, 00:12:31.639 --> 00:12:36.749 I'm talking about potential, I'm talking about accelaration. These are not really 00:12:36.749 --> 00:12:42.769 useful quantities in day to day life. If someone told to you in Greenland gravity 00:12:42.769 --> 00:12:48.440 decrease by 50 microGal, you have two choices, you can say "wow, awesome" or you 00:12:48.440 --> 00:12:53.910 can say "oh no, we're all gonna die" It's a 50:50 chance you'd say the correct 00:12:53.910 --> 00:13:01.350 thing. So we are looking for a more useful representation of the changes in 00:13:01.350 --> 00:13:07.329 gravity field. Now gravity field reflects mass redistributions and the most dynamic 00:13:07.329 --> 00:13:15.870 redistribution we have is water storage, summer/winter, more snow, more rain, less 00:13:15.870 --> 00:13:25.600 water in summer, so we express our gravity change in a unit called equivalent water 00:13:25.600 --> 00:13:31.950 height. This is the layer of water on the surface with a thickness, equivalent to 00:13:31.950 --> 00:13:39.939 the mass change measured with the satellites. This is also easily 00:13:39.939 --> 00:13:47.179 calculated. This is my last equation, I promise, but this looks familiar. The 00:13:47.179 --> 00:13:55.480 second half of this equation, is basically the same we saw one slide prior and the 00:13:55.480 --> 00:14:02.529 parameters in front of the sum is the average density of earth, which is around 00:14:02.529 --> 00:14:13.709 5500 kg/m^3. We need the density or water, let's say it 1000 kg/m^3. And in this 00:14:13.709 --> 00:14:19.429 fraction in the middle, we need to parameter K, which are the so-called Love 00:14:19.429 --> 00:14:26.149 numbers. Now, this is not a numerical representation of mutual attraction, but 00:14:26.149 --> 00:14:33.790 was put forward by, I think, Albert Love in 1911, and they are parameters 00:14:33.790 --> 00:14:37.670 concerning the elastic response of the earth to forces. So, if you put a lot of 00:14:37.670 --> 00:14:44.330 weight on a part of the earth, the earth deforms and these parameters, describe the 00:14:44.330 --> 00:14:51.769 elastic response of the earth to such loading. Now we have calculated our 00:14:51.769 --> 00:14:59.120 equivalent water height, let's say for two months, let's say, in May 2002 and 15 00:14:59.120 --> 00:15:04.790 years later in May 2017 and we just subtract these two gravity fields, these 00:15:04.790 --> 00:15:11.110 two equivalent waterheights, from these two epoches. What we have left is the 00:15:11.110 --> 00:15:17.899 change in gravity between these 2 epochs, 15 years apart, expressed in water layer 00:15:17.899 --> 00:15:23.069 equivalent to the change in gravity measured. And we can see a couple of 00:15:23.069 --> 00:15:28.190 features here. There should not be any seasonal variations because it's the same 00:15:28.190 --> 00:15:35.480 month, just 15 years apart. So we see long term gravity change between these two 00:15:35.480 --> 00:15:40.129 epochs. And what we see is, for example, mass loss in the northern and southern ice 00:15:40.129 --> 00:15:46.379 shields, and we see two red blobs, one in northern canada and one in northern 00:15:46.379 --> 00:15:53.009 europe, which are geophysical processes. So this is glacial isostastic adjustment 00:15:53.009 --> 00:15:58.800 and during the last ice age the ice shields deformed the earth downward. 00:15:58.800 --> 00:16:04.579 The material in the "Mantel" had to flow aside, and now that the ice is gone, the 00:16:04.579 --> 00:16:10.059 lead is uplifting and the material in the "Mantel" is flowing back. So it's flowing 00:16:10.059 --> 00:16:14.459 back and the earth is uplifting. This process has been going on for 10000 years 00:16:14.459 --> 00:16:23.279 and will probably a couple of years longer. Now how do you get your data? 00:16:23.279 --> 00:16:27.009 Everyone can get the GRACE Level 1B data, which are the observations by the 00:16:27.009 --> 00:16:32.399 satellite, like again, ranging information between the satelite, orbits, 00:16:32.399 --> 00:16:39.949 accelerometer data, star camera data and so on. You can get them without hurdles at 00:16:39.949 --> 00:16:44.919 the ISDC, which is the information system, a data center at the Geoforschungszentrum 00:16:44.919 --> 00:16:53.740 Potsdam, or at the Physical Oceanography Distributed Active Archive Center run by 00:16:53.740 --> 00:16:59.879 JPL. And if you'd like, you can calculate your own spherical harmonic coefficients 00:16:59.879 --> 00:17:06.269 for gravity fields. Or you can compare for example, satelite orbits they give you 00:17:06.269 --> 00:17:11.199 with one you integrated yourself using your own gravity field, to see if they fit 00:17:11.199 --> 00:17:19.910 together or not. You can get gravity field models, if you'd like. A large collection 00:17:19.910 --> 00:17:25.609 is at the International Centre for Global Earth Models. They have recent and 00:17:25.609 --> 00:17:30.789 historic gravity models all in the same data format. So you only need to implement 00:17:30.789 --> 00:17:36.639 your software once from the 1970s to today. They also have the proper 00:17:36.639 --> 00:17:43.070 references, the papers you want to read to work with them. These are so-called Level 00:17:43.070 --> 00:17:47.510 2 Products. So, you can take a gravity field from there, use the equation, I 00:17:47.510 --> 00:17:51.528 showed you earlier and calculate your equivalent water height, if you'd like. 00:17:51.528 --> 00:17:56.529 If you don't want to do this, there is someone to help you, a service called 00:17:56.529 --> 00:18:01.809 "TELLUS", which is a play on words I don't want to go into detail about. They 00:18:01.809 --> 00:18:08.330 offer equivalent water heights calculated for each monthly solution from the GRACE 00:18:08.330 --> 00:18:13.870 satellites. This tells us a lot about the earth, if you look closer into it. In the 00:18:13.870 --> 00:18:20.500 following, I will use the monthly solutions from the ITSG-GRACE 2016, 00:18:20.500 --> 00:18:25.860 provided by Institute for Geodesy at University of Graz. The previous graph I 00:18:25.860 --> 00:18:32.289 showed you was also created with that gravity model. I will not go into detail 00:18:32.289 --> 00:18:40.140 about further processing like filtering and gravity reductions done to this, not 00:18:40.140 --> 00:18:47.120 enough time. So here are some results, let's start with the most obvious one, the 00:18:47.120 --> 00:18:54.919 greenland ice shield, which has, as we saw earlier, the greatest loss of mass 00:18:54.919 --> 00:19:04.460 according to the gravity field and we see here, a water layer on the whole landmass, 00:19:04.460 --> 00:19:10.142 describing the loss of mass expressed as a water layer of a certain thickness. 00:19:10.142 --> 00:19:15.337 So let's say in the southern tip, you have one meter water layer. This would be 00:19:15.337 --> 00:19:23.700 equvalent in gravity to the actual mass lost in Greenland. But we also see, that 00:19:23.700 --> 00:19:28.950 the signal is not very localized. So it's not bound to the land mass. It's also in 00:19:28.950 --> 00:19:34.910 the ocean. This effect is called leakage. If you do signal processing you will know 00:19:34.910 --> 00:19:45.471 this. There are methods to reduce leakage. My next slide will show such a result, but 00:19:45.471 --> 00:19:49.110 I have done no reduction to this. So if you use my formula I showed you, you will 00:19:49.110 --> 00:19:55.710 pretty much get a result like this. This gives you a trend of around 280 gigatons 00:19:55.710 --> 00:20:01.679 per year in mass loss over the whole land mass of greenland. And now gigatons is 00:20:01.679 --> 00:20:08.470 also not very useful an expression. One cubic meter of water has a weight of a 00:20:08.470 --> 00:20:15.850 1000 kilos; one tonne, 1 gigatonne is 10^9 tonne, if you are familiar with ball 00:20:15.850 --> 00:20:23.792 sports, 1 soccer field with the 140 km high water column has the weight of 00:20:23.792 --> 00:20:33.490 1 gigatonne, or if you are not fan of sports ball, if you're more of a plane guy or girl 00:20:33.490 --> 00:20:42.690 the A380-800 has a maximum takeoff weight of 575 tonne, so we need 1.7 mio of these 00:20:42.690 --> 00:20:52.950 airplanes for one gigatonne. So this is a more beautiful representation of the process in 00:20:52.950 --> 00:20:58.929 greenland, done by NASA JPL. If you go to the website of the GRACE project, they 00:20:58.929 --> 00:21:06.441 have a couple of these illustrations, they obviously worked hard on the leakage. 00:21:06.441 --> 00:21:12.460 You can see localized where most of the gravity, most of the mass is lost on the 00:21:12.460 --> 00:21:20.490 left and on the right you see accumulated over time, the mass which is lost, and 00:21:20.490 --> 00:21:26.539 which trend it gives you. Also, if look closely in the center of greenland, you 00:21:26.539 --> 00:21:36.577 see black lines, these are the ice flow, as determined by radar interferometry. 00:21:36.577 --> 00:21:43.000 So now pretty much know where ice is lost, where mass is lost. This goes into the 00:21:43.000 --> 00:21:52.029 ocean, and this would be a good idea to see, to check our GRACE results, the mass 00:21:52.029 --> 00:21:56.799 we find missing on earth, so the melted ice, and the additional mass in the ocean, 00:21:56.799 --> 00:22:03.700 does this agree with other methods who determine the sea level rise. One of these 00:22:03.700 --> 00:22:09.289 methods is satellite radar altimetry, that started in the 70's, but since 1991, we 00:22:09.289 --> 00:22:15.269 have lots of dedicated satellite missions, which only job is basically mapping the 00:22:15.269 --> 00:22:21.540 global sea surface. So, they send down a radar pulse, which is reflected at the sea 00:22:21.540 --> 00:22:27.049 surface. They measure the run time and then they have a geometric representation 00:22:27.049 --> 00:22:35.480 of the global sea surface. Now, if we compare this with the mass we calculated 00:22:35.480 --> 00:22:41.330 or we got from the GRACE result, calculate a sea level rise rise from this additional 00:22:41.330 --> 00:22:46.580 mass in the ocean than these two systems would not add up. The geometric sea level 00:22:46.580 --> 00:22:51.820 rise is higher than just the additional mass. So there is the second process which 00:22:51.820 --> 00:22:58.759 is thermal expansion of the water. If water gets warm it needs more space. 00:22:58.759 --> 00:23:07.159 In 2000 the deployment of so-called ARGO floats started. These are free-floating 00:23:07.159 --> 00:23:13.389 devices in the ocean. Currently, there are over 3000 and they measure temperature and 00:23:13.389 --> 00:23:20.679 salinity between sea surface and a depth of 2000 meters. These are globally 00:23:20.679 --> 00:23:28.870 distributed. So, we have at least for the upper layer of the ocean, how much thermal 00:23:28.870 --> 00:23:36.710 expansion there is. And what we want to see is, do these components of additional 00:23:36.710 --> 00:23:41.450 mass in the ocean as determined by GRACE and thermal expansion of the upper ocean 00:23:41.450 --> 00:23:47.460 layer come to the same result as geometrical measurements done by satellite 00:23:47.460 --> 00:23:52.900 altimetry? On the left we see an image taken from the last IPCC report on climate 00:23:52.900 --> 00:23:59.769 change from 2013. In green we see the sealevel rise as measured with satellite 00:23:59.769 --> 00:24:06.279 altimetry in the time span 2005 to 2012 and in orange we see the combination of 00:24:06.279 --> 00:24:13.200 additional mass, as measured by GRACE, and thermal extension as determined with ARGO 00:24:13.200 --> 00:24:21.720 inside the ocean. And these 2 graphs follow each other quite well. On the right. We 00:24:21.720 --> 00:24:27.799 see a recent publication by Chen, Wilson and Tapley, the latter one being one of 00:24:27.799 --> 00:24:34.460 the PIs of the GRACE mission, who accumulated the data from 2005 to 2011. We 00:24:34.460 --> 00:24:41.350 basically come to the same conclusion. So now if you really don't want to do the 00:24:41.350 --> 00:24:48.870 math, there are online services who make the graphs for you. One of those is 00:24:48.870 --> 00:24:55.219 EGSIEM European Gravity Service for Improved Emergency Control. If we can 00:24:55.219 --> 00:25:00.659 measure how much water is stored in a certain area, we know that this amount of water 00:25:00.659 --> 00:25:04.929 has sooner or later to be removed from this area. This can be a flood, for 00:25:04.929 --> 00:25:08.840 example, and with a mission like GRACE, we can determine how much mass, how much 00:25:08.840 --> 00:25:15.289 water is there and are the rivers large enough to allow for this water to be 00:25:15.289 --> 00:25:22.970 flowing away. That was the intention behind this service. Oops, no, this is not 00:25:22.970 --> 00:25:39.299 the future. So, I wanted to do the life demo but. So, yeah, the live demo did not 00:25:39.299 --> 00:25:46.909 work as expected. So, you will be greeted with this graphic. You can plot for all 00:25:46.909 --> 00:25:50.649 areas in the world. The first thing you have to do is you change your gravity 00:25:50.649 --> 00:25:56.989 functional, we want water heights. This is what I talked about in this talk. Then you 00:25:56.989 --> 00:26:03.200 want to look at the data set and at the bottom you see a large list of GRACE 00:26:03.200 --> 00:26:07.190 gravity fields. These are different groups, I mentioned, providing these 00:26:07.190 --> 00:26:15.440 monthly solutions. And so we choose one of these groups. Then we choose an area which 00:26:15.440 --> 00:26:21.809 we are interested in. You can freely choose one area like here Finno-Scandia, 00:26:21.809 --> 00:26:29.070 or you can use pre-determined areas, for example, the Amazon river basin or Elbe 00:26:29.070 --> 00:26:35.570 river or something like that. These areas all over the world and you can see the 00:26:35.570 --> 00:26:41.059 gravity change in this area. So let's look here at Finno-Scandia, and then you are 00:26:41.059 --> 00:26:47.250 greeted with a plot like this. This is equivalent water height, even though this 00:26:47.250 --> 00:26:51.740 is a geophysical process. So we see here the layer of water, which would have been 00:26:51.740 --> 00:27:01.580 added to the region as selected, and we see a clear trend upward. Again, this is a 00:27:01.580 --> 00:27:08.750 geophysical process. This is not additional ice or water or anything. Can I 00:27:08.750 --> 00:27:20.240 return to my...? No, I cannot. So, yeah, live demo did not work. If you want to do 00:27:20.240 --> 00:27:26.710 this yourself. I have uploaded to the Fahrplan all my resources, all my links. 00:27:26.710 --> 00:27:31.510 And the EGSIEM page also includes the description of what is done in the backend 00:27:31.510 --> 00:27:37.649 and were the data comes from and what you can see in the various fields. Now I want 00:27:37.649 --> 00:27:42.289 to give a last impression on the future, because unfortunately while I was 00:27:42.289 --> 00:27:46.730 preparing my abstract for this conference, one of the GRACE satellites was turned off 00:27:46.730 --> 00:27:51.750 due to age. It was launched in 2002, planned for a five mission year; it 00:27:51.750 --> 00:27:56.970 survived 15 years, which is quite good, but now we have no more ranging 00:27:56.970 --> 00:28:01.250 information between these satellites. We had ranging information in micrometer 00:28:01.250 --> 00:28:09.049 accuracy, a couple of micrometer, and now we cannot rely on these information 00:28:09.049 --> 00:28:14.320 anymore. And this means mo more gravity fields with high spatial resolution, and 00:28:14.320 --> 00:28:17.799 I'm not sure about the temporal resolution. So, the current work which is 00:28:17.799 --> 00:28:23.270 done is taking all satellites which are in the low-enough orbits and calculate the 00:28:23.270 --> 00:28:26.799 gravity field from their positions, because everything which is in low-earth 00:28:26.799 --> 00:28:32.870 orbit is affected by the Earth's gravity field. So, if I take the satellite orbits, 00:28:32.870 --> 00:28:38.690 look "how does this orbit change" and the reason is gravity, then I can calculate 00:28:38.690 --> 00:28:46.110 the gravity field. Unfortunately, not in this higher resolution we are used to. 00:28:46.110 --> 00:28:50.019 And... But fortunately, there already is a next-generation gravity field mission on 00:28:50.019 --> 00:28:58.410 its way. It arrived last week in the US, where it will be launched in late March, 00:28:58.410 --> 00:29:05.330 early April by SpaceX. You might look at this image and think, "I just saw this 00:29:05.330 --> 00:29:10.990 earlier" and you are quite correct: The mission called "Grace Follow On" is a copy 00:29:10.990 --> 00:29:16.419 of Grace, which improved components, of course, and now with lasers. We see not 00:29:16.419 --> 00:29:21.500 only the microwave ranging between the two satellites, but additionally a laser 00:29:21.500 --> 00:29:26.289 interferometer. So, from micrometer accuracy in the distance measurements we 00:29:26.289 --> 00:29:33.324 go to nanometer accuracy, hopefully. But the main instrument will be the 00:29:33.324 --> 00:29:36.669 microwave ranging. So, in conclusion, 00:29:36.669 --> 00:29:42.130 I hope I showed you that the gravity field can show mass transport on the surface and 00:29:42.130 --> 00:29:47.889 inside the Earth; that this offers, in combination with other methods, new 00:29:47.889 --> 00:29:54.179 insights and also some kind of mutual verification. If several different types 00:29:54.179 --> 00:29:57.960 of observations coming to the same conclusion, none of them can be awfully 00:29:57.960 --> 00:30:03.700 wrong; and that the access to these methods are relatively easy: the data is 00:30:03.700 --> 00:30:09.480 available, all the methods are described in geodesy textbooks and the technical 00:30:09.480 --> 00:30:14.600 documentation; and there are other applications, other than, let's say, 00:30:14.600 --> 00:30:22.029 climate change; you can look into drought and flood prediction; the El Niño–Southern 00:30:22.029 --> 00:30:29.989 Oscillation you can predict from Grace's gravity field data. So, lot's of work to do. 00:30:29.989 --> 00:30:35.929 So, this would be the end for my talk. I thank you for your interest in the topic. 00:30:35.929 --> 00:30:46.775 applause 00:30:46.775 --> 00:30:51.250 Herald: Thank you, Manuel, for the talk. And I think we have time for one or two, 00:30:51.250 --> 00:30:57.350 maybe two very short questions. Please be seated during the Q&A session. Is there 00:30:57.350 --> 00:31:02.250 some questions? Okay, microphone 3, please. 00:31:02.250 --> 00:31:05.741 Mic 3: Yeah, hi. In a quiet voice Hi, hello? Can you hear me? Now loud 00:31:05.741 --> 00:31:07.859 Herald: Yeah. Mic 3: Okay. Hey. So, my question is 00:31:07.859 --> 00:31:12.945 regarding acceleration. What's the influence of Earth atmosphere and all the 00:31:12.945 --> 00:31:18.678 planetary bodies, like the moon, and does it need to be accounted for? 00:31:18.678 --> 00:31:22.236 Manuel: The external gravity needs to be accounted for, so the tidal effects of sun 00:31:22.236 --> 00:31:26.976 and moon would be one of those additional models you put into the processing of the 00:31:26.976 --> 00:31:32.340 satellite data. The Earth's atmosphere has an effect on the satellites themselves, 00:31:32.340 --> 00:31:37.159 which is measured onboard by accelerometers and then reduced. And the 00:31:37.159 --> 00:31:43.289 gravitational effect of the atmosphere: Part of this is averaged out, because we 00:31:43.289 --> 00:31:48.369 take a month of time series, and the rest are also inclu... provide as extra 00:31:48.369 --> 00:31:54.279 products; at least by the Institute for Geodesy in Graz. So atmosphere... the mass 00:31:54.279 --> 00:31:58.900 of the atmosphere is... has to be accounted for, yes. 00:31:58.900 --> 00:32:04.280 Herald: Okay. Microphone 2 has vanished all of a sudden. Then, microphone 1, 00:32:04.280 --> 00:32:08.700 please. Mic 1: Hi. Is it possible to measure 00:32:08.700 --> 00:32:16.206 changes in the temperature of the oceans or of the ocean streams, like... Can you 00:32:16.206 --> 00:32:25.362 see if El Niño is active by just measuring the gravity... change in gravity fields? 00:32:25.362 --> 00:32:29.999 Manuel: As a precursor tool, El Niño, as I understand it... certain regions of the 00:32:29.999 --> 00:32:35.690 ocean get warmer; it's a density change; and, of course, this would be measured as 00:32:35.690 --> 00:32:42.070 part of ARGO and it's also in the GRACE gravity field. There are probably papers 00:32:42.070 --> 00:32:47.799 on it. So, the last... the extend of the last El Niño was predicted by GRACE. I 00:32:47.799 --> 00:32:51.665 don't know to what extend this was correct, but... 00:32:51.665 --> 00:32:55.360 Mic 1: Okay, then. Herald: Good. Then, that's all the time we 00:32:55.360 --> 00:32:57.924 have. A big round of applause for Manuel and his talk, please. 00:32:57.924 --> 00:33:00.690 Applause 00:33:00.690 --> 00:33:07.790 34C3 Music 00:33:07.790 --> 00:33:22.000 subtitles created by c3subtitles.de in the year 2020. 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