1 00:00:00,206 --> 00:00:01,300 ♪ [音乐] ♪ 2 00:00:03,640 --> 00:00:04,768 在经济学中 3 00:00:04,768 --> 00:00:07,780 你会经常听到 “边际” 这个词 4 00:00:08,473 --> 00:00:09,720 边际效益 5 00:00:09,720 --> 00:00:11,140 边际成本 6 00:00:11,140 --> 00:00:12,595 边际效益 7 00:00:12,835 --> 00:00:14,480 这样的例子不胜枚举 8 00:00:14,760 --> 00:00:16,727 那么经济学家认为边际是什么呢? 9 00:00:16,727 --> 00:00:18,177 为什么很重要呢? 10 00:00:19,300 --> 00:00:23,048 边际只是多一点或少一点的意思 11 00:00:24,320 --> 00:00:26,317 我们想象一下你正在看一部电影 12 00:00:27,228 --> 00:00:28,760 而你听不到对白 13 00:00:29,060 --> 00:00:31,225 你将音量稍微调高一点 14 00:00:31,225 --> 00:00:32,840 [来自电影的声音] 15 00:00:32,840 --> 00:00:34,056 你应该调高几多? 16 00:00:34,390 --> 00:00:37,511 嗯,这是比较增加音量的 17 00:00:37,511 --> 00:00:40,060 边际效益和边际成本的问题 18 00:00:42,380 --> 00:00:44,393 增加一格音量听起来不错 19 00:00:44,640 --> 00:00:46,780 现在你可以听到演员的对白 20 00:00:46,780 --> 00:00:48,150 [声音稍微大一点] 21 00:00:48,400 --> 00:00:49,940 你再增加一格音量 22 00:00:50,082 --> 00:00:51,550 [声音更大] 23 00:00:52,120 --> 00:00:54,700 扬声器有点失真 但你还是比较喜欢这样子 24 00:00:54,987 --> 00:00:56,238 [声音更大] 25 00:00:57,900 --> 00:00:58,920 再增加一格 26 00:01:00,406 --> 00:01:01,457 [声音爆炸] 27 00:01:01,457 --> 00:01:02,512 嗯—哦 28 00:01:03,068 --> 00:01:04,720 现在是动作场面 29 00:01:04,720 --> 00:01:05,841 太大声了 30 00:01:05,841 --> 00:01:07,497 你不想吵醒室友 31 00:01:08,747 --> 00:01:10,300 于是你调低一格 32 00:01:11,010 --> 00:01:12,010 [声音更小] 33 00:01:12,720 --> 00:01:13,989 继续这样做 34 00:01:13,989 --> 00:01:16,390 边际地调高调低 35 00:01:16,680 --> 00:01:21,402 将每一步的边际效益与边际成本进行比较 36 00:01:22,940 --> 00:01:24,043 边际的考虑意味着 37 00:01:24,043 --> 00:01:28,084 将下一个决策的效益与其成本进行比较 38 00:01:29,108 --> 00:01:30,919 要注意,边际思考— 39 00:01:30,919 --> 00:01:35,730 是达成最理想或最佳决策的一种方法或途径 40 00:01:36,680 --> 00:01:39,820 如果我问你看电影用什么音量最好 41 00:01:39,820 --> 00:01:41,515 你可能难以回答 42 00:01:42,018 --> 00:01:44,700 但如果你一直在边际上思考和行动 43 00:01:45,060 --> 00:01:49,093 你会到达边际效益等于边际成本— 44 00:01:49,640 --> 00:01:50,780 这是最理想的情况 45 00:01:51,180 --> 00:01:52,604 因此,边际思考 46 00:01:52,604 --> 00:01:55,839 是寻找和得到答案的一种方式 47 00:01:55,839 --> 00:01:58,370 否则可能会很难才找到问题的答案 48 00:01:59,540 --> 00:02:01,121 边际思考 49 00:02:01,121 --> 00:02:03,180 还告诉你一些其他重要的事情 50 00:02:03,740 --> 00:02:05,580 不该考虑的事情 51 00:02:06,140 --> 00:02:08,540 假设你经营一家小型服装店 52 00:02:08,760 --> 00:02:12,920 而你认为 20 世纪 70 年代即将迎来复兴 53 00:02:13,680 --> 00:02:15,040 我记得那些时候 54 00:02:15,040 --> 00:02:16,100 ♪ [音乐] ♪ 55 00:02:16,100 --> 00:02:19,940 因此你买了 100 条牛仔喇叭裤 56 00:02:20,660 --> 00:02:23,260 假设支付了 75 美元一条 57 00:02:23,680 --> 00:02:25,670 你把牛仔裤定价为 100 美元— 58 00:02:26,060 --> 00:02:30,080 这能够支付你的成本,包括租金和工资 59 00:02:31,120 --> 00:02:35,228 但不幸的是,牛仔裤卖不出去 60 00:02:35,228 --> 00:02:36,770 - 什么? - 你要做什么呢? 61 00:02:37,180 --> 00:02:38,860 你会考虑降价 62 00:02:39,216 --> 00:02:40,476 但你的会计师告诉你 63 00:02:40,476 --> 00:02:42,720 如果把售价降到 100 美元以下 64 00:02:42,720 --> 00:02:45,000 你肯定会蒙受损失 65 00:02:45,440 --> 00:02:46,612 [尖叫音效] 66 00:02:47,720 --> 00:02:49,986 幸运的是,你在高中或大学 67 00:02:49,986 --> 00:02:51,454 上过很好的经济学课 68 00:02:51,900 --> 00:02:54,577 所以你记得 69 00:02:54,577 --> 00:02:55,993 你为牛仔裤付的价格是无关紧要的 70 00:02:56,040 --> 00:02:57,959 这是沉没成本 71 00:02:58,923 --> 00:03:00,620 现在重要的是 72 00:03:00,620 --> 00:03:05,311 比较你的选项的边际效益和边际成本 73 00:03:06,500 --> 00:03:10,058 一种选择是将牛仔裤存放起来 74 00:03:10,058 --> 00:03:12,175 并希望牛仔喇叭裤重新流行 75 00:03:12,520 --> 00:03:15,460 或许以后可以卖到100美元一条 76 00:03:16,160 --> 00:03:18,255 但现在你没有资金 77 00:03:18,255 --> 00:03:20,260 还要必须支付仓储费 78 00:03:21,820 --> 00:03:24,584 另一种选择是大幅降价 79 00:03:25,066 --> 00:03:27,407 现在全部以 50 美元一条出售 80 00:03:27,407 --> 00:03:29,583 这可以让你清理库存 81 00:03:29,583 --> 00:03:31,760 并将资金投资在其他地方 82 00:03:32,580 --> 00:03:34,243 你选择选项二 83 00:03:34,243 --> 00:03:36,440 并投资下一件备受追捧的潮流之物 84 00:03:36,846 --> 00:03:37,997 暖腿袜套 85 00:03:39,020 --> 00:03:41,140 现在,我知道这听起来很简单 86 00:03:41,526 --> 00:03:44,280 事实上,即使是经验丰富的商人 87 00:03:44,762 --> 00:03:48,660 往往过于关注某件商品的进货价格 88 00:03:49,240 --> 00:03:52,960 而没有足够关注当前的最佳选择 89 00:03:53,520 --> 00:03:56,360 这被称为沉没成本或固定成本谬误 90 00:03:57,280 --> 00:04:01,180 事实上,我给你们举了个有关谬误的例子 91 00:04:01,560 --> 00:04:02,580 懂了吗? 92 00:04:03,740 --> 00:04:06,956 早些时候,我说过你把这条牛仔裤 定价为 100 美元— 93 00:04:07,440 --> 00:04:10,460 这价格足够支付你的成本 包括租金和工资 94 00:04:10,819 --> 00:04:12,436 但这也是错的 95 00:04:13,260 --> 00:04:16,660 例如,如果牛仔喇叭裤的需求量很大— 96 00:04:17,300 --> 00:04:19,596 那么你的定价应该超过 100 美元 97 00:04:20,600 --> 00:04:23,370 这条牛仔裤的进货价格无关紧要— 98 00:04:24,340 --> 00:04:27,840 无论你的决定是坏的还是好的 99 00:04:28,980 --> 00:04:32,120 人们总是容易犯这样的错误 100 00:04:32,780 --> 00:04:35,418 尤其是坚持过去的错误 101 00:04:36,400 --> 00:04:39,102 也许有人告诉过你,“永不放弃!” 102 00:04:39,830 --> 00:04:41,800 好吧,听听经济学家的建议 103 00:04:42,400 --> 00:04:45,460 有时放弃是明智之举 104 00:04:46,340 --> 00:04:48,297 你正在看的电影沉闷吗? 105 00:04:48,788 --> 00:04:50,746 好吧,买票是一个错误的决定 106 00:04:51,580 --> 00:04:53,291 但这是沉没成本 107 00:04:53,291 --> 00:04:55,140 不要把时间投入到无底洞 108 00:04:55,859 --> 00:04:56,859 离场! 109 00:04:57,509 --> 00:05:00,860 没有人愿意承认做了一个错误的决定 110 00:05:01,560 --> 00:05:03,724 所以一直维持糟糕的人际关系 111 00:05:03,724 --> 00:05:05,987 糟糕的生意和糟糕的职业生涯中 112 00:05:06,356 --> 00:05:08,940 希望能够扭转局面 113 00:05:09,140 --> 00:05:13,600 证明自己过去的决定并不是那么糟糕 114 00:05:13,980 --> 00:05:18,080 一位经济学家说:"忽视那些无法改变的事情 115 00:05:18,667 --> 00:05:22,046 忽视过去,着眼于未来” 116 00:05:23,612 --> 00:05:25,740 让我们总结一下边际思考 117 00:05:26,400 --> 00:05:29,061 首先,考虑一下多一点 118 00:05:29,061 --> 00:05:30,280 还是少一点 119 00:05:30,460 --> 00:05:33,100 继续下去 120 00:05:33,380 --> 00:05:36,546 直到达到边际效益等于边际成本 121 00:05:37,117 --> 00:05:38,284 这就是最理想的 122 00:05:38,610 --> 00:05:40,940 其次,在做出选择的时候 123 00:05:41,455 --> 00:05:46,897 只需考虑随该选择而变化的成本和效益 124 00:05:47,980 --> 00:05:49,700 忽视沉没成本 125 00:05:50,380 --> 00:05:51,633 边际思考— 126 00:05:51,633 --> 00:05:52,641 这很有用 127 00:05:53,051 --> 00:05:55,035 不仅是经济学课程 128 00:05:55,840 --> 00:05:58,020 但如果你正在教经济学课 129 00:05:58,340 --> 00:06:01,580 查看包含此视频的免费单元计划 130 00:06:02,060 --> 00:06:05,720 我保证,边际效益将超过边际成本 131 00:06:06,460 --> 00:06:08,378 如果你准备好做测验 132 00:06:08,588 --> 00:06:10,220 查看我们的练习题 133 00:06:11,180 --> 00:06:14,301 最后,如果你准备好学习更多微观经济学 134 00:06:14,954 --> 00:06:16,444 单击观看下一个视频 135 00:06:16,444 --> 00:06:17,710 ♪ [音乐] ♪