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Pfizer pekee.

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Wakijaribu kunipa Johnson & Johnson,
Nitawaambia wanipe COVID badala yake.

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Msimulizi: Mtandao unaonekana kujua
ni chanjo zipi hasa ni bora zaidi

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na mbaya zaidi.

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M: Moderna?

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Zaidi kama ya kawaida, 
wastani.

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Hatufanyi wastani.

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Mira Frike: Wanadamu hupenda
kulinganisha.

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Si ajabu tunafanya hivyo pia
na chanjo za COVID-19.

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Tatizo ni kwamba huwezi
kulinganisha chanjo kwa urahisi.

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Na kufanya hivyo yaweza hata
kuwa na madhara katika janga.

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N: Sisi hujishughulisha
kuangalia nambari hizi -

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viwango vya ufanisi -

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kwa sababu vinapima
uwezekano wako wa kupata COVID-19

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baada ya kupewa chanjo.

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MF: Tatizo ni kwamba nambari hizi
hazikutengenezwa ziwe sawa.

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Badala yake, huamuliwa kulingana 
na wakati na mahali

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majaribio ya ufanisi yalifanyika.

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Carlos Guzmán: Nadhani
ulinganisho wa ufanisi wa chanjo

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nje ya muktadha inaweza kusababisha 
matokeo potovu sana.

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Kuna tofauti kuu katikati ya watu 
wanofanyiwa utafiti,

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kwa mfano; umri, jinsia, 
mazingira, hali zilizopo awali.

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N: Je, majaribio ya ufanisi 
hufanyaje kazi?

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Washiriki hugawanywa
katika vikundi viwili.

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Kundi moja hupata chanjo;
nyingine, placebo.

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Kisha wanaendelea na maisha yao 
kama kawaida.

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Baada ya muda fulani,

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watafiti wanahesabu
wangapi kati yao waliugua COVID-19.

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Ikiwa washiriki wote ambao waliugua
alitoka kwa kikundi cha placebo,

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na sufuri kutoka kwa kikundi cha chanjo,

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chanjo itakuwa na ufanisi 100%.

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Na ikiwa ni idadi sawa ya watu
kutoka kwa vikundi vyote viwili waliugua,

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ufanisi wa chanjo itakuwa sufuri

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kwa sababu hatari ya kuambukizwa
haikubadilika na chanjo.

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Lakini uwezekano wa washiriki
kupata ugonjwa wakati wa majaribio

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inalingana na jumla ya kiwango 
cha maambukizi katika mazingira yao.

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CG: Pia kuna tofauti katika suala la 
uwepo au kutokuwepo kwa lahaja ya virusi

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ambayo hupigwa kwa ufanisi mdogo
au mwingi na kingamwili

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zinazochochewa na aina ya protini
ya virusi vya asili vya SARS-CoV-2

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ambayo ilijumuishwa
katika chanjo za sasa.

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MF: Kwa hivyo wakati tunafikiria
tunajua ni chanjo gani bora,

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maoni yetu kwa kweli yameathiriwa
na sababu za kimazingira.

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N: Hebu tuangalie mfano.

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Majaribio ya Moderna na Pfizer
yalifanyika zaidi nchini Marekani

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na kabla ya kuwasili kwa aina
za anuwai zaidi za kuambukiza,

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kama ile ya kutoka Uingereza au Afrika Kusini.

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Majaribio ya AstraZeneca na Johnson & Johnson, 
kwa upande mwingine,

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yalifanyika baadaye

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au katika nchi

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ambazo anuwai zaidi za kuambukiza ziliibuka
na zikawa zaidi katika maambukizi.

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MF: Hivyo viwango vya ufanisi
haitakuwa sawa kabisa

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katika mazingira halisi ya ulimwengu,

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na inaweza kubadilika kwa wakati.

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CG: Kwa mfano, hivi majuzi
tuna ripoti kutoka Qatar,

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ambapo 50% na 45% ya maambukizi

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yanasababishwa na lahaja ya
Afrika Kusini na Uingereza.

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Utafiti huu ulituonyesha kuwa ufanisi wa
chanjo ya BioNTech/Pfizer

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hupungua hadi 89% na 75% 
kwa maambukizi yanayosababishwa

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na lahaja ya Uingereza na Afrika Kusini.

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MF: Lakini labda kumekuwa na urekebishaji
mwingi sana juu ya ufanisi wakati huu wote.

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N: Ufanisi kwa kawaida ni kipimo
kwa matokeo bora zaidi iwezekanavyo:

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hakuna dalili hata kidogo.

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Badala yake, tunaweza kuangalia|
jinsi chanjo zinazuia kulazwa hospitalini

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na kifo kutoka na COVID-19,
kwa sababu chanjo hizi zote hufanya hivyo vizuri.

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MF: Sasa kuna kipengele kingine
ambayo huathiri jinsi tunavyohukumu chanjo:

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madhara.

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N: Taarifa za kuganda kwa damu
zimetengeneza vichwa vya habari

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na kuwatia watu wasiwasi.

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EU pia iliamua
isihuishe mikataba yake

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na AstraZeneca na Johnson & Johnson.

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Hii yote inaweza kutoa hisia kwamba 
chanjo zingine ni mbaya zaidi kuliko zingine.

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MF: Lakini tena, si rahisi hivyo

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kwa sababu hatari ya kila mtu binafsi 
ya kuambukizwa

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huathiri tathmini ya
jinsi kila chanjo ina manufaa.

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N: Hebu tuangalie mfano
na chanjo ya AstraZeneca

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na kuchukua viwango vya wastani vya 
maambukizi kuwa kesi 55 kwa laki moja.

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Kati ya watu 100,000 
walio chini ya umri wa miaka 29,

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ni wawili tu wataadhirika na ganda la nadra 
la damu baada ya chanjo ya AstraZeneca,

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lakini hakuna ambaye angehitaji uangalizi mahututi
kutokana na maambukizi ya COVID-19.

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Lakini mtu zaidi ya miaka 60

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ana uwezekano mkubwa zaidi wa kuishia
katika uangalizi maalum na COVID-19

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na uwezekano mdogo wa kuadhirika na
ganda la nadra la damu.

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MF: Ndio maana baadhi ya serikali
zinapendekeza chanjo cha AstraZeneca

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tu kwa watu wenye umri wa miaka 60+.

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Lakini tathmini hii inabadilika
ikiwa viwango vya maambukizi ni vya juu.

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N: Wacha tuangalie hesabu sawa
lakini kwa viwango vya juu vya maambukizi.

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Hapa, kesi 401 kwa laki moja.

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Sasa kila mtu ana uwezekano mkubwa wa kuishia
katika uangalizi maalum kutokana na COVID-19

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kuliko kuganda kwa damu
baada ya chanjo.

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Katika hali hii, faida ya kupata 
chanjo ya AstraZeneca

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inazidi hatari ya kuganda kwa damu
kwa makundi yote ya umri.

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CG: Na bila shaka,

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kwa uingiliaji wa kuzuia 
unaolenga watu wenye afya, kama chanjo,

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ni muhimu

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kwamba usawa wa hatari na faida

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inakubalika kwa watu tofauti,
vikundi au hata watu binafsi.

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MF: Je, kuna baadhi ya chanjo
mbaya zaidi kuliko zingine?

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Tukiangalia tu madhara,

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zingine hufanya vizuri zaidi,

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angalau kutokana na kile 
tunachojua hadi sasa.

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Lakini hiyo ni kipengele kimoja tu

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na isiwe pekee tunayozingatia.

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CG: Nadhani suala kuu

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ni kwamba chanjo au mpango
wa chanjo bora zaidi

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ni ule unaoturuhusu
kuzuia magonjwa na kifo.

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Na bila shaka, kupunguza matokeo 
moja kwa moja na yasiyo ya moja kwa moja -

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matokeo mabaya -

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juu ya uharibifu mbaya.

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MF: Chanjo yoyote iliyopokea
idhini ya dharura kutoka kwa WHO

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hulinda dhidi ya visa vikali vya COVID-19.

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Zinazuia vifo na kusaidia 
kumaliza janga hili.

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N: Hivyo, ikiwa chanjo ni chache,

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kuna hoja nzuri sana kuchukua 
chochote kinachopatikana kwetu,

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kwa sababu ikiwa tunasisitiza
kupata chanjo maalum,

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tunaweza kurefusha janga hili zima,

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na hilo linaweza kugharimu maisha.

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Manukuu na Maurício Kakuei Tanaka
Mapitio ya Carol Wang

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