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Homem: Só a da Pfizer.

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Se tentarem me dar a da Johnson,
prefiro pegar COVID.

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Narrador: A internet parece saber
exatamente quais vacinas são as melhores

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e as piores.

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M: A da Moderna?

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Medíocre, regular.

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Regular nem pensar.

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Mira Fricke: As pessoas adoram comparar.

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Não é de admirar que estamoa fazendo isso

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O problema é que não podemos
comparar vacinas dessa forma.

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E fazer isso pode até ser
prejudicial em uma pandemia.

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N: Temos a tendência
de analisar esses números,

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taxas de eficácia,

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porque eles medem a probabilidade
de contrairmos COVID-19

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após termos sido vacinados.

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MF: O problema é que esses números
não foram gerados em momentos iguais,

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mas são determinados por quando
e onde os testes de eficácia aconteceram.

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Carlos Guzmán: Creio

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que comparações simples
de eficácia de vacina fora de contexto

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podem levar a conclusões muito erradas.

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Há diferenças essenciais
na população de estudo como, por exemplo,

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idade, gênero, fator ambiental genético,
condições preexistentes.

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N: Como funcionam os testes de eficácia?

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Os participantes
são divididos em dois grupos.

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Um grupo toma a vacina;
o outro, um placebo.

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Depois eles retornam à vida normal.

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Após certo tempo,

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pesquisadores contam
quantos deles contraíram COVID-19.

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Se todos os participantes que ficaram
doentes vieram do grupo do placebo,

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e nenhum do grupo da vacina,

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a vacina seria 100% eficaz.

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E se exatamente o mesmo número de pessoas
de ambos os grupos ficaram doentes,

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a eficácia da vacina seria zero

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porque o risco de contrair a doença
não mudou com a vacina.

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Mas a chance de os participantes
contraírem a doença durante um teste

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corresponde à taxa de infecção geral
no ambiente deles.

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CG: Há também diferenças com relação
à presença ou à ausência de variante do vírus

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que são neutralizadas de modo
mais ou menos eficiente pelos anticorpos

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