WEBVTT

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Hi. Em, yeah.

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I'm gonna tell you something about
what's happening in the car industry.

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And I thought let's...

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Let's have the first picture
put on the screen.

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This car.

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I'd like to see some hands.

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Who already has seen 
this car on the road?

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Who knows this car?

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Okay. That's quite a lot.

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Well...

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A friend of mine has one.

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And...

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When I talk with him about it, he's..

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He's always super enthusiastic.

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He says "Yeah, this car,
it just accelerates like hell!"

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"It's crazy!"

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"And it has this huge screen!"

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"And I can download apps on it."

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"And I can surf the web."

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"It's amazing!"

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"It's not just an electric car."

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"It doesn't drive electric.
It's more than that."

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And...

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Well, there are also
the non-enthusiasts.

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And I say "Well yeah, 
but it's heavily subsidized."

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"And that will never grow."

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"And it still charges in hours."

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Well that's gonna change.

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And that's what I'm talking about today.

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Em...

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What's my background?

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I'm CEO and founder of Fastned.

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Fastned builds charging stations.

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Like this.

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Just like a regular gas station.

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They're situated along the highway.

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And you can just exit the highway,

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go into the charging station,

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put the plug in the car,

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press start

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and 20 minutes later
the car is full.

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What that will do is that will give

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electric vehicles drivers the freedom
to drive wherever they like,

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just like a gasoline car.

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Why do you buy a car?

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You buy a car because
it gives you freedom.

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That's why you want it.

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And that's what we're going to do.

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Basically the same as 
Shell or BP that puts on

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gasoline stations.

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So why do I think that this industry

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is headed towards this Kodak moment?

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Kodak is the classical example of

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the photography industry being
disrupted by the digital camera.

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And what we see here,

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what we see happening 
with the electric car

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is to some extent the same.

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We see cars becoming electric.

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It's becoming an electric appliance.

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And it follows a totally different course

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and experience curve than we are
used to from mechanical products

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like the current fossil fuel car
that we know.

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And this electric appliance

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it just goes through a cost curve

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that you know from the LCD TV
that you have at home,

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from the improvement that 
we've seen in digital cameras.

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Year on year these products get better
and better and better.

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And that is disruptive.

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That's highly disruptive.

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If you look at solar panels,

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more and more houses in the Netherlands,

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they are putting solar panels
on their roofs.

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Why are they doing that?

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Well, because of this:

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this curve going down, down, down.

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Year on year improvements in solar cells

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are around 20%.

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20% per year to get cheaper, better, etc.

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And what that means,

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if you do that every year,

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at some point, you'll cross 
that line of grid parity.

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At some point, your energy
from the solar panels

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will become cheaper than

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the energy that you can buy
from the grid.

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And the same is happening with batteries.

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The batteries, that's the main cost
component of our electric car,

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they're getting cheaper 
and cheaper every day.

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We've seen the same from digital cameras.

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Digital cameras got better.

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They got more capacity of photos.

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They got more megapixels.

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In 10 years, the industry went
from 0 to 100% adoption.

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When the photographers didn't like

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the camera in the beginning,

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they now love it.

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And we see the same happening 
with electric cars.

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They will charge faster.

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They will have more range.

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And it's not as fast as the
digital camera in development,

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but it will be around 20% per year.

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And I think, if we translate that 
to the car industry,

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this is what we see happening:

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this was an extract of the Auto Bild,

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a German car magazine.

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It basically states the opinion,

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or let's say how the Germans thought
about the introduction of the Tesla.

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Last month,

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Tesla sold 289 vehicles in the Netherlands

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of the type Model S.

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In that same month, 
BMW and Audi combined sold...

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244 Audi A6 and BMW 5 series.

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That's what I call disruption.

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In 1 or 2 years, you got 
a serious market share.

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It's already happening 
in this luxury segment.

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Then besides price,

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what else,

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why would it be disruptive?

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An electric car, 
you can charge it at home.

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And at home, electricity is very cheap.

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You can basically put your car
in a wall socket.

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It's a huge incentive for people
to buy a car. Why?

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If you drive it for 2 Euros for 100 km,

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and you have your own parking space
for your car near your home,

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that makes a lot of sense.

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You basically get a 
0 marginal cost product.

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So the whole cost perception of
the product of an electric car

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will be totally different
than a gasoline car.

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And that will be disruptive.

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This is what's gonna 
happen in the end.

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What we will see is 
in the coming 10 to 15 years,

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we will see this market accelerate

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Today this market is growing

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at 50 or 100% per year.

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And that will accelerate.

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And it will go through the hockey stick
in the coming years.

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And that means that in the end,

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gasoline stations will be disrupted.

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The existing car brands 
that are sitting ducks,

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they will be disrupted as well.

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Only car brands that will
really really step in,

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and today start their development,

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they will get there,

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they will be able to go along.

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Thank you very much.

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(Applause)