1
00:00:11,521 --> 00:00:12,712
Hi. Em, yeah.

2
00:00:12,712 --> 00:00:15,745
I'm gonna tell you something about
what's happening in the car industry.

3
00:00:16,055 --> 00:00:17,029
And I thought let's...

4
00:00:17,319 --> 00:00:19,515
Let's have the first picture
put on the screen.

5
00:00:19,515 --> 00:00:20,631
This car.

6
00:00:20,631 --> 00:00:22,009
I'd like to see some hands.

7
00:00:22,009 --> 00:00:24,079
Who already has seen 
this car on the road?

8
00:00:24,079 --> 00:00:25,399
Who knows this car?

9
00:00:25,816 --> 00:00:28,021
Okay. That's quite a lot.

10
00:00:28,961 --> 00:00:29,846
Well...

11
00:00:30,376 --> 00:00:31,772
A friend of mine has one.

12
00:00:32,542 --> 00:00:33,562
And...

13
00:00:34,051 --> 00:00:36,771
When I talk with him about it, he's..

14
00:00:37,120 --> 00:00:39,073
He's always super enthusiastic.

15
00:00:39,073 --> 00:00:42,468
He says "Yeah, this car,
it just accelerates like hell!"

16
00:00:42,468 --> 00:00:43,478
"It's crazy!"

17
00:00:43,628 --> 00:00:45,458
"And it has this huge screen!"

18
00:00:45,458 --> 00:00:47,398
"And I can download apps on it."

19
00:00:47,398 --> 00:00:48,938
"And I can surf the web."

20
00:00:48,938 --> 00:00:49,988
"It's amazing!"

21
00:00:50,205 --> 00:00:51,435
"It's not just an electric car."

22
00:00:51,443 --> 00:00:53,647
"It doesn't drive electric.
It's more than that."

23
00:00:53,647 --> 00:00:55,101
And...

24
00:00:55,701 --> 00:00:57,066
Well, there are also
the non-enthusiasts.

25
00:00:57,066 --> 00:00:59,886
And I say "Well yeah, 
but it's heavily subsidized."

26
00:00:59,978 --> 00:01:01,728
"And that will never grow."

27
00:01:01,774 --> 00:01:04,874
"And it still charges in hours."

28
00:01:05,241 --> 00:01:06,451
Well that's gonna change.

29
00:01:06,451 --> 00:01:07,924
And that's what I'm talking about today.

30
00:01:08,484 --> 00:01:09,727
Em...

31
00:01:09,727 --> 00:01:10,791
What's my background?

32
00:01:10,931 --> 00:01:13,051
I'm CEO and founder of Fastned.

33
00:01:13,051 --> 00:01:15,291
Fastned builds charging stations.

34
00:01:15,291 --> 00:01:16,141
Like this.

35
00:01:16,141 --> 00:01:18,591
Just like a regular gas station.

36
00:01:18,941 --> 00:01:21,271
They're situated along the highway.

37
00:01:21,386 --> 00:01:24,846
And you can just exit the highway,

38
00:01:24,846 --> 00:01:27,076
go into the charging station,

39
00:01:27,076 --> 00:01:28,770
put the plug in the car,

40
00:01:28,770 --> 00:01:29,704
press start

41
00:01:29,704 --> 00:01:31,640
and 20 minutes later
the car is full.

42
00:01:31,840 --> 00:01:34,510
What that will do is that will give

43
00:01:35,275 --> 00:01:38,115
electric vehicles drivers the freedom
to drive wherever they like,

44
00:01:38,115 --> 00:01:39,585
just like a gasoline car.

45
00:01:39,585 --> 00:01:41,085
Why do you buy a car?

46
00:01:41,085 --> 00:01:43,305
You buy a car because
it gives you freedom.

47
00:01:43,312 --> 00:01:44,652
That's why you want it.

48
00:01:44,952 --> 00:01:46,652
And that's what we're going to do.

49
00:01:47,202 --> 00:01:51,202
Basically the same as 
Shell or BP that puts on

50
00:01:51,202 --> 00:01:52,792
gasoline stations.

51
00:01:54,054 --> 00:01:57,348
So why do I think that this industry

52
00:01:57,348 --> 00:01:59,648
is headed towards this Kodak moment?

53
00:02:01,498 --> 00:02:04,628
Kodak is the classical example of

54
00:02:05,738 --> 00:02:09,643
the photography industry being
disrupted by the digital camera.

55
00:02:09,643 --> 00:02:11,763
And what we see here,

56
00:02:11,763 --> 00:02:13,623
what we see happening 
with the electric car

57
00:02:13,623 --> 00:02:15,903
is to some extent the same.

58
00:02:15,903 --> 00:02:17,843
We see cars becoming electric.

59
00:02:17,843 --> 00:02:19,833
It's becoming an electric appliance.

60
00:02:19,833 --> 00:02:22,883
And it follows a totally different course

61
00:02:22,883 --> 00:02:26,663
and experience curve than we are
used to from mechanical products

62
00:02:26,663 --> 00:02:29,623
like the current fossil fuel car
that we know.

63
00:02:30,043 --> 00:02:32,743
And this electric appliance

64
00:02:32,743 --> 00:02:34,713
it just goes through a cost curve

65
00:02:34,713 --> 00:02:37,433
that you know from the LCD TV
that you have at home,

66
00:02:37,433 --> 00:02:40,983
from the improvement that 
we've seen in digital cameras.

67
00:02:40,983 --> 00:02:44,703
Year on year these products get better
and better and better.

68
00:02:44,703 --> 00:02:46,503
And that is disruptive.

69
00:02:46,503 --> 00:02:47,923
That's highly disruptive.

70
00:02:47,923 --> 00:02:50,273
If you look at solar panels,

71
00:02:50,273 --> 00:02:52,373
more and more houses in the Netherlands,

72
00:02:52,373 --> 00:02:55,143
they are putting solar panels
on their roofs.

73
00:02:55,992 --> 00:02:57,202
Why are they doing that?

74
00:02:57,202 --> 00:02:58,232
Well, because of this:

75
00:02:58,232 --> 00:03:01,302
this curve going down, down, down.

76
00:03:01,492 --> 00:03:04,402
Year on year improvements in solar cells

77
00:03:04,402 --> 00:03:05,532
are around 20%.

78
00:03:05,532 --> 00:03:09,322
20% per year to get cheaper, better, etc.

79
00:03:09,322 --> 00:03:10,342
And what that means,

80
00:03:10,342 --> 00:03:11,702
if you do that every year,

81
00:03:11,702 --> 00:03:14,982
at some point, you'll cross 
that line of grid parity.

82
00:03:14,992 --> 00:03:17,672
At some point, your energy
from the solar panels

83
00:03:17,672 --> 00:03:19,202
will become cheaper than

84
00:03:19,202 --> 00:03:21,302
the energy that you can buy
from the grid.

85
00:03:22,056 --> 00:03:23,756
And the same is happening with batteries.

86
00:03:23,756 --> 00:03:27,096
The batteries, that's the main cost
component of our electric car,

87
00:03:27,096 --> 00:03:29,606
they're getting cheaper 
and cheaper every day.

88
00:03:30,726 --> 00:03:33,086
We've seen the same from digital cameras.

89
00:03:33,375 --> 00:03:34,855
Digital cameras got better.

90
00:03:34,855 --> 00:03:38,365
They got more capacity of photos.

91
00:03:38,365 --> 00:03:40,045
They got more megapixels.

92
00:03:40,045 --> 00:03:43,775
In 10 years, the industry went
from 0 to 100% adoption.

93
00:03:43,775 --> 00:03:45,975
When the photographers didn't like

94
00:03:45,975 --> 00:03:47,435
the camera in the beginning,

95
00:03:47,435 --> 00:03:49,345
they now love it.

96
00:03:49,345 --> 00:03:52,155
And we see the same happening 
with electric cars.

97
00:03:52,155 --> 00:03:53,325
They will charge faster.

98
00:03:53,325 --> 00:03:54,825
They will have more range.

99
00:03:56,275 --> 00:04:00,275
And it's not as fast as the
digital camera in development,

100
00:04:00,275 --> 00:04:01,975
but it will be around 20% per year.

101
00:04:04,533 --> 00:04:07,243
And I think, if we translate that 
to the car industry,

102
00:04:07,243 --> 00:04:08,523
this is what we see happening:

103
00:04:08,523 --> 00:04:11,593
this was an extract of the Auto Bild,

104
00:04:11,593 --> 00:04:14,223
a German car magazine.

105
00:04:14,223 --> 00:04:16,793
It basically states the opinion,

106
00:04:16,793 --> 00:04:20,803
or let's say how the Germans thought
about the introduction of the Tesla.

107
00:04:22,183 --> 00:04:22,983
Last month,

108
00:04:24,903 --> 00:04:29,503
Tesla sold 289 vehicles in the Netherlands

109
00:04:29,503 --> 00:04:31,233
of the type Model S.

110
00:04:31,233 --> 00:04:35,556
In that same month, 
BMW and Audi combined sold...

111
00:04:36,159 --> 00:04:40,213
244 Audi A6 and BMW 5 series.

112
00:04:40,763 --> 00:04:42,493
That's what I call disruption.

113
00:04:42,682 --> 00:04:46,202
In 1 or 2 years, you got 
a serious market share.

114
00:04:46,202 --> 00:04:49,378
It's already happening 
in this luxury segment.

115
00:04:52,834 --> 00:04:54,206
Then besides price,

116
00:04:54,206 --> 00:04:54,908
what else,

117
00:04:54,908 --> 00:04:56,621
why would it be disruptive?

118
00:04:58,014 --> 00:05:00,344
An electric car, 
you can charge it at home.

119
00:05:00,584 --> 00:05:03,144
And at home, electricity is very cheap.

120
00:05:03,764 --> 00:05:07,004
You can basically put your car
in a wall socket.

121
00:05:07,806 --> 00:05:11,306
It's a huge incentive for people
to buy a car. Why?

122
00:05:12,396 --> 00:05:16,396
If you drive it for 2 Euros for 100 km,

123
00:05:17,305 --> 00:05:21,305
and you have your own parking space
for your car near your home,

124
00:05:21,964 --> 00:05:23,384
that makes a lot of sense.

125
00:05:23,384 --> 00:05:26,704
You basically get a 
0 marginal cost product.

126
00:05:26,704 --> 00:05:30,104
So the whole cost perception of
the product of an electric car

127
00:05:30,104 --> 00:05:33,294
will be totally different
than a gasoline car.

128
00:05:33,294 --> 00:05:34,694
And that will be disruptive.

129
00:05:38,074 --> 00:05:40,234
This is what's gonna 
happen in the end.

130
00:05:41,144 --> 00:05:43,724
What we will see is 
in the coming 10 to 15 years,

131
00:05:43,724 --> 00:05:45,820
we will see this market accelerate

132
00:05:47,486 --> 00:05:48,924
Today this market is growing

133
00:05:48,924 --> 00:05:50,814
at 50 or 100% per year.

134
00:05:51,344 --> 00:05:52,634
And that will accelerate.

135
00:05:52,634 --> 00:05:56,044
And it will go through the hockey stick
in the coming years.

136
00:05:56,634 --> 00:05:58,264
And that means that in the end,

137
00:05:58,264 --> 00:06:00,764
gasoline stations will be disrupted.

138
00:06:01,903 --> 00:06:05,543
The existing car brands 
that are sitting ducks,

139
00:06:06,413 --> 00:06:08,303
they will be disrupted as well.

140
00:06:09,430 --> 00:06:13,070
Only car brands that will
really really step in,

141
00:06:13,338 --> 00:06:15,888
and today start their development,

142
00:06:15,888 --> 00:06:17,658
they will get there,

143
00:06:17,658 --> 00:06:19,328
they will be able to go along.

144
00:06:19,828 --> 00:06:21,268
Thank you very much.

145
00:06:21,280 --> 00:06:25,120
(Applause)