0:00:11.521,0:00:12.712
Hi. Em, yeah.

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I'm gonna tell you something about[br]what's happening in the car industry.

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And I thought let's...

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Let's have the first picture[br]put on the screen.

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This car.

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I'd like to see some hands.

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Who already has seen [br]this car on the road?

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Who knows this car?

0:00:25.816,0:00:28.021
Okay. That's quite a lot.

0:00:28.961,0:00:29.846
Well...

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A friend of mine has one.

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And...

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When I talk with him about it, he's..

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He's always super enthusiastic.

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He says "Yeah, this car,[br]it just accelerates like hell!"

0:00:42.468,0:00:43.478
"It's crazy!"

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"And it has this huge screen!"

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"And I can download apps on it."

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"And I can surf the web."

0:00:48.938,0:00:49.988
"It's amazing!"

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"It's not just an electric car."

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"It doesn't drive electric.[br]It's more than that."

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And...

0:00:55.701,0:00:57.066
Well, there are also[br]the non-enthusiasts.

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And I say "Well yeah, [br]but it's heavily subsidized."

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"And that will never grow."

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"And it still charges in hours."

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Well that's gonna change.

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And that's what I'm talking about today.

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Em...

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What's my background?

0:01:10.931,0:01:13.051
I'm CEO and founder of Fastned.

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Fastned builds charging stations.

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Like this.

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Just like a regular gas station.

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They're situated along the highway.

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And you can just exit the highway,

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go into the charging station,

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put the plug in the car,

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press start

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and 20 minutes later[br]the car is full.

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What that will do is that will give

0:01:35.275,0:01:38.115
electric vehicles drivers the freedom[br]to drive wherever they like,

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just like a gasoline car.

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Why do you buy a car?

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You buy a car because[br]it gives you freedom.

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That's why you want it.

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And that's what we're going to do.

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Basically the same as [br]Shell or BP that puts on

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gasoline stations.

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So why do I think that this industry

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is headed towards this Kodak moment?

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Kodak is the classical example of

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the photography industry being[br]disrupted by the digital camera.

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And what we see here,

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what we see happening [br]with the electric car

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is to some extent the same.

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We see cars becoming electric.

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It's becoming an electric appliance.

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And it follows a totally different course

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and experience curve than we are[br]used to from mechanical products

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like the current fossil fuel car[br]that we know.

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And this electric appliance

0:02:32.743,0:02:34.713
it just goes through a cost curve

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that you know from the LCD TV[br]that you have at home,

0:02:37.433,0:02:40.983
from the improvement that [br]we've seen in digital cameras.

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Year on year these products get better[br]and better and better.

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And that is disruptive.

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That's highly disruptive.

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If you look at solar panels,

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more and more houses in the Netherlands,

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they are putting solar panels[br]on their roofs.

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Why are they doing that?

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Well, because of this:

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this curve going down, down, down.

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Year on year improvements in solar cells

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are around 20%.

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20% per year to get cheaper, better, etc.

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And what that means,

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if you do that every year,

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at some point, you'll cross [br]that line of grid parity.

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At some point, your energy[br]from the solar panels

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will become cheaper than

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the energy that you can buy[br]from the grid.

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And the same is happening with batteries.

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The batteries, that's the main cost[br]component of our electric car,

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they're getting cheaper [br]and cheaper every day.

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We've seen the same from digital cameras.

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Digital cameras got better.

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They got more capacity of photos.

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They got more megapixels.

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In 10 years, the industry went[br]from 0 to 100% adoption.

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When the photographers didn't like

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the camera in the beginning,

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they now love it.

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And we see the same happening [br]with electric cars.

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They will charge faster.

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They will have more range.

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And it's not as fast as the[br]digital camera in development,

0:04:00.275,0:04:01.975
but it will be around 20% per year.

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And I think, if we translate that [br]to the car industry,

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this is what we see happening:

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this was an extract of the Auto Bild,

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a German car magazine.

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It basically states the opinion,

0:04:16.793,0:04:20.803
or let's say how the Germans thought[br]about the introduction of the Tesla.

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Last month,

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Tesla sold 289 vehicles in the Netherlands

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of the type Model S.

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In that same month, [br]BMW and Audi combined sold...

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244 Audi A6 and BMW 5 series.

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That's what I call disruption.

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In 1 or 2 years, you got [br]a serious market share.

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It's already happening [br]in this luxury segment.

0:04:52.834,0:04:54.206
Then besides price,

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what else,

0:04:54.908,0:04:56.621
why would it be disruptive?

0:04:58.014,0:05:00.344
An electric car, [br]you can charge it at home.

0:05:00.584,0:05:03.144
And at home, electricity is very cheap.

0:05:03.764,0:05:07.004
You can basically put your car[br]in a wall socket.

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It's a huge incentive for people[br]to buy a car. Why?

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If you drive it for 2 Euros for 100 km,

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and you have your own parking space[br]for your car near your home,

0:05:21.964,0:05:23.384
that makes a lot of sense.

0:05:23.384,0:05:26.704
You basically get a [br]0 marginal cost product.

0:05:26.704,0:05:30.104
So the whole cost perception of[br]the product of an electric car

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will be totally different[br]than a gasoline car.

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And that will be disruptive.

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This is what's gonna [br]happen in the end.

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What we will see is [br]in the coming 10 to 15 years,

0:05:43.724,0:05:45.820
we will see this market accelerate

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Today this market is growing

0:05:48.924,0:05:50.814
at 50 or 100% per year.

0:05:51.344,0:05:52.634
And that will accelerate.

0:05:52.634,0:05:56.044
And it will go through the hockey stick[br]in the coming years.

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And that means that in the end,

0:05:58.264,0:06:00.764
gasoline stations will be disrupted.

0:06:01.903,0:06:05.543
The existing car brands [br]that are sitting ducks,

0:06:06.413,0:06:08.303
they will be disrupted as well.

0:06:09.430,0:06:13.070
Only car brands that will[br]really really step in,

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and today start their development,

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they will get there,

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they will be able to go along.

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Thank you very much.

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(Applause)