WEBVTT

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So what if there were
a highly obvious problem

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right in front of you?

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One that everyone was talking about,

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one that affected you directly.

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Would you do everything
within your power to fix things

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before they got worse?

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Don't be so sure.

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We are all much more likely
than any of us would like to admit

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to miss what's right in front of our eyes.

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And in fact,

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we're sometimes most likely
to turn away from things

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precisely because of the threat
that they represent to us,

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in business, life and the world.

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So I want to give you an example
from my world, economic policy.

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So when Alan Greenspan
was head of the Federal Reserve,

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his entire job was to watch out
for problems in the US economy

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and to make sure
that they didn't spin out of control.

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So, after 2006,

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when real estate prices peaked,

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more and more and more
respected leaders and institutions

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started to sound the alarm bells

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about risky lending
and dangerous market bubbles.

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As you know, in 2008
it all came tumbling down.

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Banks collapsed,

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global stock markets lost
nearly half their value,

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millions and millions of people
lost their homes to foreclosure.

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And at the bottom,

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nearly one in 10 Americans
was out of work.

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So after things calmed down a little bit,

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Greenspan and many others
came out with a postmortem and said,

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"Nobody could have predicted that crisis."

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They called it "a black swan."

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Something that was unimaginable,

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unforeseeable, and completely improbable.

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A total surprise.

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Except, it wasn't always such a surprise.

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For example, my Manhattan apartment
nearly doubled in value

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in less than four years.

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I saw the writing on the wall
and I sold it.

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(Laughter)

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(Applause)

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So, a lot of other people
also saw the warning,

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spoke out publicly,

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and they were ignored.

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So we didn't know exactly
what the crisis was going to look like,

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not the exact parameters,

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but we could all tell

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that the thing coming at us
was as dangerous, visible and predictable

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as a giant gray rhino
charging right at us.

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The black swan lends itself

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to the idea that we don't have
power over our futures.

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And unfortunately, the less control
that we think we have,

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the more likely we are to downplay it

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or ignore it entirely.

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And this dangerous dynamic
masks another problem:

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that most of the problems
that we're facing

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are so probable and obvious,

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they're things that we can see,
but we still don't do anything about.

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So I created the gray rhino metaphor

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to meet what I felt was an urgent need.

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To help us to take a fresh look,

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with the same passion
that people had for the black swan,

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but this time, for the things
that were highly obvious,

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highly probable, but still neglected.

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Those are the gray rhinos.

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Once you start looking for gray rhinos,

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you see them in the headlines every day.

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And so what I see in the headlines
is another big gray rhino,

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a new highly probable financial crisis.

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And I wonder if we've learned anything
in the last 10 years.

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So if you listen
to Washington or Wall Street,

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you could almost be forgiven for thinking
that only smooth sailing laid ahead.

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But in China, where I spend a lot of time,

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the conversation is totally different.

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The entire economic team,

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all the way up to president
Xi Jinping himself,

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talk very specifically and clearly

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about financial risks as gray rhinos,

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and how they can tame them.

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Now, to be sure, China and the US

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have very, very different
systems of government,

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which affects what
they're able to do or not.

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And many of the root causes for their
economic problems are totally different.

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But it's no secret
that both countries have problems

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with debt, with inequality
and with economic productivity.

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So how come the conversations
are so different?

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You could actually ask this question,
not just about countries,

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but about just about everyone.

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The auto companies that put safety first,

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and the ones that don't bother
to recall their shoddy cars

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until after people die.

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The grandparents, who,
in preparing for the inevitable,

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the ones who have the eulogy written,

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the menu for the funeral lunch.

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(Laughter)

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My grandparents did.

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(Laughter)

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And everything but the final date
chiseled into the gravestone.

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But then you have the grandparents
on the other side,

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who don't put their
final affairs in order,

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who don't get rid of all the junk

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they've been hoarding
for decades and decades

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and leave their kids to deal with it.

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So what makes the difference
between one side and the other?

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Why do some people
see things and deal with them,

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and the other ones just look away?

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So the first one has to do
with culture, society,

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the people around you.

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If you think that someone around you

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is going to help
pick you up when you fall,

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you're much more likely
to see a danger as being smaller.

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And that allows us to take
good chances, not just the bad ones.

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For example, like risking criticism

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when you talk about the danger
that nobody wants you to talk about.

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Or taking the opportunities
that are kind of scary,

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so in their own way are gray rhinos.

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So the US has a very
individualist culture -- go it alone.

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And paradoxically,

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this makes many Americans
much less open to change

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and taking good risks.

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In China, by contrast,

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people believe that the government
is going to keep problems from happening,

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which might not always be
what happens, but people believe it.

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They believe they can rely
on their families,

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so that makes them more likely
to take certain risks.

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Like buying Beijing real estate,

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or like being more open about the fact
that they need to change direction,

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and in fact, the pace of change in China
is absolutely amazing.

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Second of all,

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how much do you know about a situation,

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how much are you willing to learn?

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And are you willing to see things
even when it's not what you want?

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So many of us are so unlikely

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to pay attention to the things
that we just want to black out,

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we don't like them.

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We pay attention to what we want to see,
what we like, what we agree with.

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But we have the opportunity

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and the ability to correct
those blind spots.

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I spend a lot of time talking
with people of all walks of life

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about the gray rhinos int heir life
and their attitudes.

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And you might think

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that the people who are
more afraid of risk,

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who are more sensitive to them,

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would be the ones
who would be less open to change.

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But the opposite is actually true.

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I've found that the people

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who are wiling to recognize
the problems around them

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and make plans

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are the ones who are able
to tolerate more risk, good risk,

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and deal with the bad risk.

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And it's because as we seek information,

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we increase our power to do something
about the things that we're afraid of.

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And that brings me to my third point.

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How much control do you feel that you have

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over the gray rhinos in your life?

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One of the reasons we don't act

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is that we often feel too helpless.

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Think of climate change,
it can feel so big,

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that not a single one of us
could make a difference.

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So some people go about life denying it.

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Other people blame everyone
except themselves.

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Like my friend who says he's not
ever going to give up his SUV

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until they stop building
coal plants in China.

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But we have an opportunity to change.

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No two of us are the same.

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Every single one of us has the opportunity
to change our attitudes,

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our own and those of people around us.

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So today, I want to invite all of you

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to join me in helping to spark
an open and honest conversation

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with the people around you,

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about the gray rhinos in our world,

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and be brutally honest
about how well we're dealing with them.

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I hear so many times in the States,

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"Well, of course we should
deal with obvious problems,

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but if you don't see
what's in front of you,

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you're either dumb or ignorant."

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That's what they say,
and I could not disagree more.

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If you don't see what's in front of you,

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you're not dumb, you're not ignorant,

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you're human.

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And once we all recognize
that shared vulnerability,

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that gives us the power to open our eyes,

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to see what's in front of us,

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and to act before we get trampled.

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(Applause)