[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:01.19,0:00:02.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When you marry,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:02.13,0:00:06.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,usually you take on your partner's surname\Nor your parter takes on yours.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:06.81,0:00:09.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Two people with different surnames become
Dialogue: 0,0:00:09.06,0:00:10.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,two people with the same.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:10.87,0:00:13.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One surname spreads, the other one goes...
Dialogue: 0,0:00:13.57,0:00:15.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,...extinct? Usually not.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:15.27,0:00:17.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There might be siblings, cousins,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:17.35,0:00:19.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,strangers who happen to share the surname,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:19.51,0:00:22.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to carry it on for the one who lost it.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:22.27,0:00:25.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But if one person fails to pass on the surname,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:25.20,0:00:27.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so might the others.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:27.33,0:00:29.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In fact, every now and then
Dialogue: 0,0:00:29.20,0:00:31.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,entire surnames do go extinct
Dialogue: 0,0:00:31.93,0:00:33.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when its last bearer passes away
Dialogue: 0,0:00:33.100,0:00:35.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,without passing it on.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:36.01,0:00:37.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,According to the Daily Mail,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:37.68,0:00:40.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in England and Wales, 200,000 surnames
Dialogue: 0,0:00:40.95,0:00:43.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,were lost since 1901.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:43.21,0:00:45.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You can find lists of endangered surnames
Dialogue: 0,0:00:45.15,0:00:48.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on websites such as Ancestry.com and myheritage.com
Dialogue: 0,0:00:48.87,0:00:51.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Ancestry counts surnames with less than
Dialogue: 0,0:00:51.18,0:00:53.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,50 carriers left as endangered,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:53.88,0:00:55.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which in England and Wales,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:55.04,0:00:56.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,would currently be names such as
Dialogue: 0,0:00:56.88,0:00:59.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Pober, Mirren, Febland (heh, Febland),
Dialogue: 0,0:01:00.08,0:01:02.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Nighy - N-Nighy?
Dialogue: 0,0:01:02.48,0:01:04.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,While some of these names might be \Nmore of a loss than others,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:04.88,0:01:10.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's sad to think that they might all \Ncease to exist within a few generations.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:10.39,0:01:13.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Back in the days, new surnames \Nwere created as well
Dialogue: 0,0:01:13.93,0:01:18.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,based on someone's job or father's given name or where they came from.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:18.64,0:01:20.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But that doesn't really happen anymore,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:20.95,0:01:22.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not on a large scale, anyway.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:22.89,0:01:25.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So more surnames are lost than\Nnew ones are being born.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:25.88,0:01:28.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Keep this experiment going long enough,\N
Dialogue: 0,0:01:28.52,0:01:33.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we will all end up with\Nthe same surname eventually, won't we?
Dialogue: 0,0:01:33.85,0:01:38.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When we look at Earth's more ancient\Ncivilizations - even more ancient-
Dialogue: 0,0:01:38.44,0:01:43.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,intensive research reveals that most \NChinese surnames in use today
Dialogue: 0,0:01:43.33,0:01:46.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,were handed down from thousands of years ago.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:46.36,0:01:50.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,While historically about 12,000 \NChinese surnames have been recorded,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:50.59,0:01:53.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,only a bit over 3,000 are currently in use,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:53.97,0:01:56.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a reduction of 75 percent!
Dialogue: 0,0:01:56.99,0:02:01.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And only a fraction of those are taking \Nover a majority of the entire population.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:01.90,0:02:07.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The three most common surnames in mainland\NChina are Li, Wang and Zhang,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:07.50,0:02:12.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which make up for more than 7 percent \Nof the Chinese population each.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:12.31,0:02:15.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Together they belong to close to\N300 million people
Dialogue: 0,0:02:15.98,0:02:19.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and are easily the most common surnames\Nin the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:19.56,0:02:24.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In China, the phrase "three Zhang, four Li"\Nis used to say just "anybody."
Dialogue: 0,0:02:24.44,0:02:28.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So after thousands of years, \Nthe Chinese people aren't down to
Dialogue: 0,0:02:28.05,0:02:31.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,one all-dominating surname, but several.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:31.53,0:02:32.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What's going on here?
Dialogue: 0,0:02:32.70,0:02:35.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This effect can be shown in a simulation.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:35.74,0:02:39.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What you see here is the result of a \NGalton-Watson process,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:39.13,0:02:43.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which maps out how the distribution of\Nfamily names changes over time.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:43.80,0:02:47.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It starts out with a very large number\Nof unique family names\N
Dialogue: 0,0:02:47.12,0:02:51.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,each represented by a different color, \Nand after 40 generations,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:51.13,0:02:54.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or around a thousand years,\Nends with the ones which are left.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:54.90,0:02:56.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When you look at the very end there,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:56.47,0:03:00.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what you see is very similar to the Chinese situation.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:00.28,0:03:03.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The top three names take over 20 percent\Nof the cake.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:04.17,0:03:07.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But the question is: \Nif we keep the simulation going,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:07.70,0:03:10.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,will we end up with only one surname?
Dialogue: 0,0:03:10.87,0:03:14.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Mathematically, the entire population does\Nconverge to only one surname.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:14.73,0:03:19.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But in real life, if we start out with,\Nsay, 10,000 surnames,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:19.74,0:03:21.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(and there are actually\Nmuch more than that)
Dialogue: 0,0:03:21.81,0:03:26.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,after 40 generations we'd still be left\Nwith over 400.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:26.28,0:03:29.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Okay, how about 200 generations?
Dialogue: 0,0:03:29.23,0:03:31.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Still 93 left.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:31.89,0:03:35.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,While the less frequent names\Nare dying out quickly,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:35.01,0:03:37.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the more frequent ones\Nbecome so widely spread
Dialogue: 0,0:03:37.88,0:03:41.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that humans will probably cease to exist\Nbefore they do.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:41.92,0:03:43.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The probability of extinction of
Dialogue: 0,0:03:43.50,0:03:47.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a unique family name that is carried\Nby only one young couple
Dialogue: 0,0:03:47.45,0:03:50.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is 45 percent, at least in the West.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:50.69,0:03:53.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's the average likelihood of them\Nhaving no children
Dialogue: 0,0:03:53.77,0:03:57.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or only children who won't pass\Non the family name.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:57.84,0:04:01.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But the likelihood of a family name\Nwhich is held by multiple couples
Dialogue: 0,0:04:01.31,0:04:07.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,going extinct within one generation\Nis 45 percent to the power of the number of couples.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:07.57,0:04:13.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So with a few more people sharing a surname\Nit becomes very unlikely very quickly
Dialogue: 0,0:04:13.12,0:04:15.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that this surname should disappear soon.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:15.58,0:04:19.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you want to know how often your\Nfamily name is currently in use,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:19.03,0:04:22.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you can find that out on websites such as\NForebears.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:22.31,0:04:24.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,According to the US Census Bureau,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:24.55,0:04:27.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the most common family names\Nin the US are currently
Dialogue: 0,0:04:27.26,0:04:29.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Smith, Johnson, and Williams,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:29.90,0:04:34.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which together make up for around\N2 percent of the entire US population.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:34.84,0:04:37.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's, of course, not very impressive\Nto China.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:37.84,0:04:41.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In a way, you could say that \Non this timeline, the US is somewhere here
Dialogue: 0,0:04:41.100,0:04:44.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,while China is already over there.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:44.84,0:04:48.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As fewer family names\Nbecome more widely spread,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:48.57,0:04:53.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we might follow the Chinese feat and\Nbecome more creative about given names.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:53.08,0:04:54.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So instead of Tim Smith, \N
Dialogue: 0,0:04:54.90,0:04:57.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you might be called the\NTalentedPeaceful Smith.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:57.96,0:05:01.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And, instead of Tom, I might be called\NThe Rest of Us.