WEBVTT

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♪ [音乐] ♪

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- [旁白] 欢迎收看“诺奖得主畅谈系列”

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在这一集中

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Josh Angrist 和 Guido Imbens
与 Isaiah Andrews

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将讨论计量经济学领域是如何发展的

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- [Isaiah] 那么，Guido 和 Josh

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你们都是开发经济学实证研究工具的先驱

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所以我想了解你对这个领域的发展方向的想法

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经济学、计量经济学，整个领域

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首先，我很想听听你是否觉得

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局部平均处理效应框架的方式

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对经济学中的新经验法如何发展和传播

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或它们应如何发展和传播有任何榜样

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- [Josh] 这是个好问题

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你先说吧

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[笑声]

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- [Guido] 是的，所以我认为重要的是

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要提出令人信服的案例

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其中问题清晰

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且方法普遍适用

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有一件事我...

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当我回顾较新的文献时

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我真的很喜欢回归不连续性文献

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其中显然有一堆非常有说服力的例子

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这让人们可以更清晰地思考

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更仔细地研究方法问题

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有着一些清晰的应用方法

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然后允许你思考：

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“哇，这些类型的假设在这里看起来合理吗？

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我们不喜欢早期论文中的哪些方面？

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我们如何改进这些方面？”

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因此，我认为有着明确的应用方法

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来激发这些文献是非常有帮助的

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- Guido，我很高兴
你提到了回归不连续性

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我认为 IV 和 RD、

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工具变量和回归不连续性之间有很多互补性

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回归不连续性的许多计量经济学应用
曾经被称为“模糊” RD

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它在截止时不是离散的或确定的

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而只在速率或强度上有着变化

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LATE 框架帮助我们理解这些应用方法

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并为我们提供了一个清晰的解释

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比如在我与 Victor Lavy 的论文中

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我们使用了 Maimonides 规则
班级规模截断

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那么你这里了解到了什么？

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当然，你可以用线性常数效应模型
来回答这个问题

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但事实证明我们并不局限于此

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RD 仍然非常强大和有启发性

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即使在这种情况和类型规模下

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截止和感兴趣的变量之间的相关性是局部的

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甚至可能不是那么强

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所以肯定有着平行发展

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这也很有趣...

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当我们在读研究生时，没有人谈论回归不连续性设计

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这是其他社会科学家感兴趣的东西

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它与 LATE 框架一起成长

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我们都曾基于这两种应用方式和方法进行工作

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而且能看到它的发展并变得如此重要

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我感到非常兴奋

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我认为，这是朝着可靠的识别策略

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因果效应的普遍演变的一部分

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使计量经济学更多地关注
因果问题而不是模型

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就未来而言

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我认为 LATE 帮助促进的一件事是

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朝着更具创造性的随机试验迈进

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其中有着一些有趣的东西

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它不可能或直接能被简单地关闭或开启

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但你可以鼓励或阻止它

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因此，例如，你能通过经济援助
来补贴学校教育

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所以现在我们有了
一个完整的框架来解释这一点

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它打开了对以前似乎不可能的事情
进行随机试验的大门

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我们在麻省理工学院
Blueprint实验室中

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大量使用了这一点

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我认为，我们正在以
非常有创意的方式利用随机分配

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- [Isaiah] 与此相关，你是否看到

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有助于计量经济学研究的特定因素？

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你已经提到它与
实际出现的问题有明确的联系

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并且经验实践通常是一个好主意

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- 这不是一个好主意吗？

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我经常发现自己坐在
一个计量经济学理论研讨会上

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比如哈佛麻省理工学院的研讨会

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我会想，“这个人在解决什么问题？

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谁面对这个问题？”

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而且，你知道…

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如果我问的话
有时会出现令人尴尬的沉默

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或者可能会有一个相当牵强的场景

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我想看看这个工具在哪里有用

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有一些是纯粹的基础工具

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我确实明白这一点

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有些人正在研究的概念基础

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它变得更像数理统计

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我的意思是，我记得一个较早的例子

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那就是我很难理解的随机等连续性的概念

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我的论文顾问之一，Whitney Newey

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使用它取得了很好的效果

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我当时试图理解这一点

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这真的很基础

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驱动它的不是一个应用方法

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至少不是立即的

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但是大多数事情不是这样的
所以应该有着问题

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我认为这取决于这类事情的卖家

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因为有着机会成本、时间和注意力

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以及理解事情的努力

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