[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:00.00,0:00:02.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,♪ [音乐] ♪
Dialogue: 0,0:00:03.80,0:00:05.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [旁白] 欢迎收看“诺奖得主畅谈系列”
Dialogue: 0,0:00:07.04,0:00:08.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,在这一集中
Dialogue: 0,0:00:08.10,0:00:11.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Josh Angrist 和 Guido Imbens\N与 Isaiah Andrews
Dialogue: 0,0:00:11.57,0:00:14.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,将讨论计量经济学领域是如何发展的
Dialogue: 0,0:00:16.10,0:00:18.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Isaiah] 那么，Guido 和 Josh
Dialogue: 0,0:00:18.75,0:00:21.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,你们都是开发经济学实证研究工具的先驱
Dialogue: 0,0:00:21.50,0:00:23.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,所以我想了解你对这个领域的发展方向的想法
Dialogue: 0,0:00:23.17,0:00:25.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:25.71,0:00:28.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,经济学、计量经济学，整个领域
Dialogue: 0,0:00:28.51,0:00:31.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,首先，我很想听听你是否觉得
Dialogue: 0,0:00:32.17,0:00:35.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,局部平均处理效应框架的方式
Dialogue: 0,0:00:35.20,0:00:38.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:38.80,0:00:42.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,对经济学中的新经验法如何发展和传播
Dialogue: 0,0:00:42.19,0:00:44.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,或它们应如何发展和传播有任何榜样
Dialogue: 0,0:00:44.56,0:00:45.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Josh] 这是个好问题
Dialogue: 0,0:00:46.61,0:00:47.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,你先说吧
Dialogue: 0,0:00:47.79,0:00:49.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,[笑声]
Dialogue: 0,0:00:49.70,0:00:52.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Guido] 是的，所以我认为重要的是
Dialogue: 0,0:00:52.94,0:00:58.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,要提出令人信服的案例
Dialogue: 0,0:00:58.55,0:01:02.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,其中问题清晰
Dialogue: 0,0:01:02.40,0:01:05.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,且方法普遍适用
Dialogue: 0,0:01:06.25,0:01:07.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,有一件事我...
Dialogue: 0,0:01:08.19,0:01:12.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,当我回顾较新的文献时
Dialogue: 0,0:01:12.20,0:01:16.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我真的很喜欢回归不连续性文献
Dialogue: 0,0:01:16.70,0:01:19.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,其中显然有一堆非常有说服力的例子
Dialogue: 0,0:01:19.67,0:01:23.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,这让人们可以更清晰地思考
Dialogue: 0,0:01:23.38,0:01:27.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,更仔细地研究方法问题
Dialogue: 0,0:01:27.40,0:01:28.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,有着一些清晰的应用方法
Dialogue: 0,0:01:28.80,0:01:30.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,然后允许你思考：
Dialogue: 0,0:01:30.60,0:01:33.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,“哇，这些类型的假设在这里看起来合理吗？
Dialogue: 0,0:01:33.60,0:01:38.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我们不喜欢早期论文中的哪些方面？
Dialogue: 0,0:01:38.50,0:01:39.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我们如何改进这些方面？”
Dialogue: 0,0:01:39.80,0:01:44.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,因此，我认为有着明确的应用方法
Dialogue: 0,0:01:44.21,0:01:46.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,来激发这些文献是非常有帮助的
Dialogue: 0,0:01:46.80,0:01:48.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- Guido，我很高兴\N你提到了回归不连续性
Dialogue: 0,0:01:48.05,0:01:49.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:49.38,0:01:53.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我认为 IV 和 RD、
Dialogue: 0,0:01:54.70,0:01:57.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,工具变量和回归不连续性之间有很多互补性
Dialogue: 0,0:02:00.51,0:02:03.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,回归不连续性的许多计量经济学应用\N曾经被称为“模糊” RD
Dialogue: 0,0:02:03.26,0:02:04.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:04.52,0:02:07.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:07.23,0:02:11.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,它在截止时不是离散的或确定的
Dialogue: 0,0:02:11.62,0:02:14.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,而只在速率或强度上有着变化
Dialogue: 0,0:02:14.90,0:02:17.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,LATE 框架帮助我们理解这些应用方法
Dialogue: 0,0:02:17.74,0:02:18.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:18.74,0:02:21.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,并为我们提供了一个清晰的解释
Dialogue: 0,0:02:21.14,0:02:25.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,比如在我与 Victor Lavy 的论文中
Dialogue: 0,0:02:25.00,0:02:28.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我们使用了 Maimonides 规则\N班级规模截断
Dialogue: 0,0:02:28.43,0:02:30.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,那么你这里了解到了什么？
Dialogue: 0,0:02:30.29,0:02:31.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,当然，你可以用线性常数效应模型\N来回答这个问题
Dialogue: 0,0:02:31.82,0:02:33.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:34.20,0:02:36.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,但事实证明我们并不局限于此
Dialogue: 0,0:02:36.31,0:02:39.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,RD 仍然非常强大和有启发性
Dialogue: 0,0:02:40.63,0:02:43.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,即使在这种情况和类型规模下
Dialogue: 0,0:02:43.09,0:02:45.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,截止和感兴趣的变量之间的相关性是局部的
Dialogue: 0,0:02:45.87,0:02:49.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:49.13,0:02:51.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,甚至可能不是那么强
Dialogue: 0,0:02:52.00,0:02:54.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,所以肯定有着平行发展
Dialogue: 0,0:02:54.100,0:02:56.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,这也很有趣...
Dialogue: 0,0:02:57.25,0:02:59.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,当我们在读研究生时，没有人谈论回归不连续性设计
Dialogue: 0,0:02:59.78,0:03:01.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:01.22,0:03:02.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,这是其他社会科学家感兴趣的东西
Dialogue: 0,0:03:02.84,0:03:05.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:05.80,0:03:09.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,它与 LATE 框架一起成长
Dialogue: 0,0:03:09.51,0:03:11.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我们都曾基于这两种应用方式和方法进行工作
Dialogue: 0,0:03:11.93,0:03:14.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:14.56,0:03:18.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,而且能看到它的发展并变得如此重要
Dialogue: 0,0:03:18.38,0:03:19.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我感到非常兴奋
Dialogue: 0,0:03:20.00,0:03:21.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我认为，这是朝着可靠的识别策略
Dialogue: 0,0:03:21.77,0:03:26.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,因果效应的普遍演变的一部分
Dialogue: 0,0:03:26.09,0:03:27.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:29.39,0:03:30.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,使计量经济学更多地关注\N因果问题而不是模型
Dialogue: 0,0:03:30.64,0:03:33.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:33.64,0:03:34.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,就未来而言
Dialogue: 0,0:03:34.65,0:03:37.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我认为 LATE 帮助促进的一件事是
Dialogue: 0,0:03:37.66,0:03:42.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,朝着更具创造性的随机试验迈进
Dialogue: 0,0:03:42.01,0:03:44.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,其中有着一些有趣的东西
Dialogue: 0,0:03:45.50,0:03:48.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,它不可能或直接能被简单地关闭或开启
Dialogue: 0,0:03:48.46,0:03:50.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:51.00,0:03:54.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,但你可以鼓励或阻止它
Dialogue: 0,0:03:54.58,0:03:58.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,因此，例如，你能通过经济援助\N来补贴学校教育
Dialogue: 0,0:03:59.00,0:04:02.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,所以现在我们有了\N一个完整的框架来解释这一点
Dialogue: 0,0:04:03.60,0:04:07.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,它打开了对以前似乎不可能的事情\N进行随机试验的大门
Dialogue: 0,0:04:07.11,0:04:09.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:10.30,0:04:12.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:14.50,0:04:17.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我们在麻省理工学院\NBlueprint实验室中
Dialogue: 0,0:04:17.86,0:04:21.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,大量使用了这一点
Dialogue: 0,0:04:22.36,0:04:26.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我认为，我们正在以\N非常有创意的方式利用随机分配
Dialogue: 0,0:04:28.10,0:04:31.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [以赛亚] 与此相关，您是否看到有助于计量经济学研究的特定因素？
Dialogue: 0,0:04:31.40,0:04:34.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:34.44,0:04:38.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,您已经提到它与实际出现的问题有明确的联系，并且经验实践通常是一个好主意。
Dialogue: 0,0:04:38.44,0:04:40.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:40.30,0:04:42.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:43.29,0:04:45.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- 这不是一个好主意吗？我经常发现自己坐在一个计量经济学理论研讨会上，比如哈佛麻省理工学院的研讨会，我在想，“这个人在解决什么问题？谁有这个问题？”
Dialogue: 0,0:04:45.70,0:04:50.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:50.70,0:04:52.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:53.40,0:04:56.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:56.35,0:04:57.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:57.96,0:04:59.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,而且，你知道……如果我问的话，有时会出现令人尴尬的沉默，或者可能会有一个相当人为的场景。
Dialogue: 0,0:05:01.60,0:05:04.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:04.90,0:05:08.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:08.80,0:05:11.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我想看看这个工具在哪里有用。
Dialogue: 0,0:05:12.50,0:05:14.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,有一些纯粹的基础工具——我确实明白这一点。
Dialogue: 0,0:05:14.76,0:05:16.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:16.25,0:05:21.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,有些人正在研究...的概念基础，它变得更像数理统计。
Dialogue: 0,0:05:22.60,0:05:25.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:25.80,0:05:27.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我的意思是，我记得一个我很难理解的早期例子是随机等连续性的概念，我的论文顾问之一惠特尼·纽维（Whitney Newey）使用它取得了很好的效果，我试图理解这一点。这真的很基础。
Dialogue: 0,0:05:27.65,0:05:29.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:29.92,0:05:32.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:32.50,0:05:35.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:35.07,0:05:36.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:36.48,0:05:38.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:40.60,0:05:42.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:42.03,0:05:45.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,它不是驱动它的应用程序——至少不是立即的。
Dialogue: 0,0:05:45.89,0:05:47.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:48.60,0:05:53.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,但是大多数事情不是这样的，所以应该有问题。
Dialogue: 0,0:05:53.80,0:05:59.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我认为这取决于这类事情的卖家，因为有机会成本、时间和注意力，以及理解事情的努力。
Dialogue: 0,0:06:00.48,0:06:02.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:02.25,0:06:05.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:05.98,0:06:07.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:07.40,0:06:08.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:09.40,0:06:12.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:12.90,0:06:15.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:16.10,0:06:18.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:18.28,0:06:20.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:20.70,0:06:22.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:22.90,0:06:26.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:26.57,0:06:28.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:28.70,0:06:31.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:31.50,0:06:34.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:34.32,0:06:38.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:38.80,0:06:40.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:42.50,0:06:45.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:45.22,0:06:48.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:49.10,0:06:52.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:52.26,0:06:54.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:54.90,0:06:57.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:57.94,0:07:00.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:00.10,0:07:02.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:02.03,0:07:03.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:04.10,0:07:06.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:06.28,0:07:08.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:08.69,0:07:11.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:11.07,0:07:12.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:13.30,0:07:15.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:15.80,0:07:17.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:18.10,0:07:21.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:21.18,0:07:23.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:24.30,0:07:26.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:26.78,0:07:29.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:29.46,0:07:31.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:32.00,0:07:35.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:36.94,0:07:39.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:40.02,0:07:41.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:41.76,0:07:43.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:45.19,0:07:47.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:47.36,0:07:50.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:50.08,0:07:51.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:51.70,0:07:55.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:56.09,0:07:58.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:58.81,0:08:01.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:01.51,0:08:03.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:03.48,0:08:05.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:07.10,0:08:09.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:10.30,0:08:15.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:15.10,0:08:17.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:20.43,0:08:21.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:22.80,0:08:24.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:24.07,0:08:26.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:26.48,0:08:29.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:29.78,0:08:32.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:32.81,0:08:38.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:39.10,0:08:42.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:42.05,0:08:45.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:45.38,0:08:48.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:48.60,0:08:50.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:50.31,0:08:52.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:52.98,0:08:54.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:54.15,0:08:56.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:56.11,0:08:58.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:58.60,0:09:01.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:01.13,0:09:03.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:03.50,0:09:05.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:05.12,0:09:08.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:08.37,0:09:09.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:10.40,0:09:11.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:11.44,0:09:14.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:14.08,0:09:15.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:16.56,0:09:18.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:18.30,0:09:20.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:20.48,0:09:22.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:22.20,0:09:23.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:25.10,0:09:28.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:30.10,0:09:33.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:33.09,0:09:35.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:35.64,0:09:37.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:37.68,0:09:40.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:40.00,0:09:42.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:42.36,0:09:44.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:45.44,0:09:49.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:49.18,0:09:52.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:52.39,0:09:54.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
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Dialogue: 0,0:17:38.52,0:17:43.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
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Dialogue: 0,0:17:47.02,0:17:48.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:48.20,0:17:50.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
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