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We need to,

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they will give you.

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This

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is our planet.

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It contains an astonishing variety

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of landscapes

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and climates.

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Since life began

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around 4,000

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million years ago,

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it has gone through

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extraordinary changes and its climate

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and in the space that their on it.

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But no,

15
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it seems that our planet 
is being transformed

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not by natural events

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the by the actions of.

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One species

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mankind.

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You know I belong to the most

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they spared and dominant 
species and I more

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or less.

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We live on 27 years ago I presented

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life on Earth.

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A series of traces

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the evolution of life

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from its very beginnings.

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I set out to find them film

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representative species

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of the whole animal kingdom

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in all it's marvelous 
and wonderful for us.

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In the final program

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I dealt with the arrival of human beings.

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Still a recent event in the 
history of our planet.

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There is no scientific 
evidence whatsoever.

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The suppose indeed that

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man will stay on earth 
should be any longer

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than that

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of the dinosaurs,

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but although

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denying a special place in the world,

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maybe

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becoming a modest.

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The fact remains that man has 
an unprecedented control

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over the world

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and everything in it.

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And so

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whether he likes it or not.

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What happens next.

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It is very largely

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up to him.

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Up to us.

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Indeed,

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at the time I spoke those words.

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I had no idea that we have been the

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might have unleashed forces

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that in the

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hotel in the climate of fear.

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Good.

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The destruction of towns and cities

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in the southern United States

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be linked

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to the collapse of glasses

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in green.

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If

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going people

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but is the stuff floating around

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if out there.

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Might drought

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in the Amazon

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that killed thousands of fish

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be connected to the intensity 
of forest fires

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in Australia.

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And are these events related

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to one of Europe's hottest ever

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farmers.

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Which led to the death of 27,000 people.

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In every part of the world.

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New climatic extremes are 
now being the court.

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Our weather

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is in turmoil.

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During the last 50 years

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I've been lucky enough to 
spend my time traveling

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around the world

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looking at its wonders

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and its spenders

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during a time of course,

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I've seen many changes

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some good

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many bad

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but it's only in the last decade

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that I've come

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to think about the question

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as to whether or not

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what I or anybody else has been doing

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could have contributed to the change

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in the climate

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of the planet.

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It is undoubtedly taking place.

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In recent years,

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scientists have been collaborating

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on one of the most urgent and ambitious 
endeavors in our history.

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They're trying to understand the unprecedented 
changes in our time

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. And they're linking those changes

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to the rising temperatures 
that they're measuring

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had thousands of weather stations 
around the world.

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So,

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how much

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have global temperatures

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well

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by just over

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nought-point 6 of one degree Celsius.

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Since 1900

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how can such a seemingly small rise

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create so much havoc

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with the planet's climate.

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Well,

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that figure

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nought-point 6 degrees

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is only an average

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while some places have cooled a little

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some

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like the Arctic

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has warmed

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by up to 3 degrees.

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The frozen surface of the sea 
creates a highly specialized

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environment.

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And an extraordinary range of animals

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have evolved to live both 
above and below the ice.

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But the Arctic is now melting so fast

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that the whole intricate web of wildlife

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is under 3.

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And no species is more at risk

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than the animals at the 
top of the food chain,

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the polar bears.

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The turn of the year,

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that is when females give birth to

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raise their cut.

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By this time

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mothers will not have eaten 
for many months,

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and yet they now have 
extra mouths to feed.

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Their main prey are seals

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but they can only hunt

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before the ice melts,

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but it does that

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they must come ashore

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with all the reserves only 
to raise their cubs.

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And on land.

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There are no

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to hunt.

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Now

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because the ice is melting 
earlier each year

153
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mothers are going hungry

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and the less able to provide 
for their Cup.

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In Hudson's Bay

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Dr.

157
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Nick to London

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sets out each spring

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to track down the polar

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bears

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and check on their health.

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They been there.

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I've been working on that all of 
us here in the Churchill area

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since the early 1980s over 
the last 25 years

165
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and we're looking at the population

166
00:11:15,000 --> 00:20:07,000
ecology of polar bears in relation 
to tie not of change

167
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is population is the most

168
00:21:49,000 --> 00:18:31,000
studied population anywhere in the world.

169
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By tracking the Bears with such regularity

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Miquelon

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and his team

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have discovered that their 
numbers have declined

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by nearly a quarter

174
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since he first started stuck.

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First he needs to find the best.

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He then

177
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tranquilized system so that he 
can check their body weight

178
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to assess their health.

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The team has to work quickly to make 
their checks on their family

180
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before the mother wakes up.

181
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24 and a half pounds

182
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for Cobb one

183
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fun

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on larger bears

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we take the weight and their length 
and weak calculate what we

186
00:22:02,000 --> 00:19:45,000
call a body-body condition index.

187
00:19:45,000 --> 00:19:08,000
It's essentially the weight of 
the bear divided by its length

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Square

189
00:20:09,000 --> 00:23:11,000
and it gives us a means to compare bears

190
00:16:02,000 --> 00:21:43,000
between years over years

191
00:21:24,000 --> 00:13:17,000
what condition there and when the 
come ashore and we found that

192
00:13:57,000 --> 00:24:08,000
over the past 25

193
00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:12,000
years or so low that the condition 
of these bears us declining.

194
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Cobb 2 straight line leg zero 6-9.

195
00:24:53,000 --> 00:10:26,000
Here we've got a female 
with a trip letter.

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It's a very rare sight to find triplets.

197
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In the fall time

198
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one of the Cubs is

199
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a runt of the litter and it's 
not likely to survive.

200
00:18:27,000 --> 00:16:38,000
20 years ago.

201
00:16:38,000 --> 00:20:00,000
It wasn't all that uncommon 
to find triplets.

202
00:20:00,000 --> 00:12:01,000
In the fall.

203
00:12:01,000 --> 00:16:32,000
About 5% of the bears.

204
00:16:32,000 --> 00:21:54,000
We caught more females with 
cubs had triplets.

205
00:21:25,000 --> 00:18:07,000
We're seeing triplets born in the spring,

206
00:18:07,000 --> 00:12:18,000
but we're not

207
00:24:38,000 --> 00:15:22,000
one or more of those cubs is not 
making it through the fall.

208
00:15:22,000 --> 00:13:15,000
We're seeing reductions in Cup survival,

209
00:13:15,000 --> 00:15:06,000
things of that nature,

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00:15:06,000 --> 00:24:27,000
all related to climb out of form.

211
00:27:01,000 --> 00:21:43,000
The ice is now melting

212
00:25:13,000 --> 00:21:54,000
3 weeks earlier

213
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each year.

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00:17:16,000 --> 00:17:40,000
That means that there is 3 weeks 
less feeding time for pregnant

215
00:19:00,000 --> 00:21:40,000
mother.

216
00:13:23,000 --> 00:15:25,000
Once they come ashore in the sea ice melts

217
00:23:45,000 --> 00:24:48,000
the bears are forced to fast for 
anywhere from 4 months for most

218
00:24:48,000 --> 00:18:01,000
parents up to 8 months for a female such

219
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this

220
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here.

221
00:22:02,000 --> 00:11:24,000
Who would have come ashore last summer

222
00:18:04,000 --> 00:11:47,000
and it's not hard to see all 
meal since last July.

223
00:19:33,000 --> 00:12:36,000
If the current warming trend continues

224
00:21:06,000 --> 00:12:17,000
the future

225
00:15:57,000 --> 00:12:28,000
looks bleak

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00:16:58,000 --> 00:16:49,000
for polar bears.

227
00:24:13,000 --> 00:17:35,000
It's not just that sea level.

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00:24:26,000 --> 00:21:28,000
Is melting at Sutton alarming rate.

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00:21:39,000 --> 00:27:42,000
The global temperature rise is also 
being felt much higher up.

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Mountain glasses

231
00:20:33,000 --> 00:19:34,000
all over the planet

232
00:11:45,000 --> 00:23:45,000
also now.

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00:15:49,000 --> 00:27:50,000
The mountain ranges of Patagonia

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00:22:31,000 --> 00:27:41,000
rundown

235
00:17:32,000 --> 00:17:24,000
towards a sudden tip of South America.

236
00:28:17,000 --> 00:19:50,000
This is the,

237
00:19:50,000 --> 00:14:31,000
in the northern

238
00:18:41,000 --> 00:19:42,000
Patagonian Ice Field

239
00:13:43,000 --> 00:15:37,000
it starts almost 2.5 thousand 
meters above sea level.

240
00:27:10,000 --> 00:26:02,000
This remote part of Patagonia

241
00:13:53,000 --> 00:18:16,000
is one of the coldest places on 
earth outside the poll nobody.

242
00:18:41,000 --> 00:21:03,000
JC allergist Dr. Stephen Harmison

243
00:26:13,000 --> 00:28:35,000
has been working in locations 
like the meth

244
00:15:56,000 --> 00:18:27,000
for 20 years

245
00:26:37,000 --> 00:20:00,000
he's been studying how they've 
changed over that time.

246
00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:57,000
The Patagonian Ice Field,

247
00:23:57,000 --> 00:13:39,000
the most dynamic ice fields on Earth.

248
00:26:11,000 --> 00:28:03,000
To understand climate change 
in the southern hemisphere.

249
00:28:14,000 --> 00:23:26,000
We need to go to places like this.

250
00:23:26,000 --> 00:21:59,000
He gives a very good record of climate 
change over the whole range

251
00:21:59,000 --> 00:16:00,000
of time to go.

252
00:22:02,000 --> 00:24:33,000
The ground I'm standing on

253
00:21:34,000 --> 00:15:35,000
that last year,

254
00:15:35,000 --> 00:23:45,000
the net glass.

255
00:23:45,000 --> 00:22:29,000
It was here in about the 1870s 
and by about 19 the 1930s

256
00:13:10,000 --> 00:16:41,000
it will be treated to this

257
00:23:51,000 --> 00:26:02,000
shoreline the lake shoreline

258
00:23:13,000 --> 00:17:04,000
and since then,

259
00:17:04,000 --> 00:21:15,000
since 1930s of courses

260
00:24:55,000 --> 00:19:06,000
retreated another

261
00:24:06,000 --> 00:29:48,000
2.5 to 3 kilometers perhaps 2 miles

262
00:27:19,000 --> 00:27:50,000
back up this valley.

263
00:26:44,000 --> 00:27:45,000
We were hearing Martin 88

264
00:18:26,000 --> 00:28:38,000
is this the whole night was completely 
covered with icebergs.

265
00:17:09,000 --> 00:23:59,000
All.

266
00:22:24,000 --> 00:18:25,000
Some fake MySpace

267
00:27:35,000 --> 00:21:07,000
we hardly get our boats in the ice front

268
00:28:27,000 --> 00:19:20,000
and yet that's will go on that landscape 
is completely changed now

269
00:19:20,000 --> 00:19:52,000
. Russia's

270
00:21:22,000 --> 00:17:43,000
give us a very

271
00:25:13,000 --> 00:28:06,000
visual record of climate change 
and and the they should be no

272
00:28:06,000 --> 00:29:28,000
doubt the climate change is happening.

273
00:29:28,000 --> 00:18:31,000
If we look at what glasses and 
doing all around the world,

274
00:18:31,000 --> 00:27:43,000
not just these ones on the north 
Patagonian Ice Field but glasses

275
00:28:53,000 --> 00:25:44,000
everywhere.

276
00:25:44,000 --> 00:14:26,000
They're all in recession pretty well

277
00:21:56,000 --> 00:20:09,000
and and that gives us a very visual 
record what exactly is going

278
00:20:09,000 --> 00:17:10,000
on in most one.

279
00:19:27,000 --> 00:14:39,000
The rate of that class Immelt

280
00:21:09,000 --> 00:21:40,000
is now accelerating.

281
00:20:32,000 --> 00:26:03,000
In southern Greenland.

282
00:26:03,000 --> 00:24:35,000
The amount of ice flowing into the sea

283
00:29:35,000 --> 00:22:18,000
has doubled in the last 10 years.

284
00:28:10,000 --> 00:17:01,000
This

285
00:20:51,000 --> 00:14:53,000
is slowly but steadily

286
00:19:23,000 --> 00:23:55,000
causing sea levels to rise.

287
00:17:44,000 --> 00:15:36,000
8,000 miles away.

288
00:15:36,000 --> 00:22:38,000
The inhabitants of the 
tiny Pacific islands

289
00:26:18,000 --> 00:21:59,000
of Tuvalu

290
00:27:29,000 --> 00:18:33,000
are already facing the realities 
of an invading sea.

291
00:19:14,000 --> 00:29:37,000
As temperatures rise so 
do those of the sea,

292
00:29:37,000 --> 00:29:59,000
causing oceans to expand

293
00:21:00,000 --> 00:15:51,000
and that

294
00:20:51,000 --> 00:28:32,000
coupled with the dresser melt

295
00:19:33,000 --> 00:30:55,000
means that sea levels will 
rise even higher.

296
00:18:57,000 --> 00:17:08,000
Earlier this year

297
00:21:38,000 --> 00:18:11,000
tides rose to their highest 
level ever known

298
00:21:51,000 --> 00:23:03,000
flooding the homes of the islanders.

299
00:16:30,000 --> 00:30:21,000
They have been troubled by this problem

300
00:18:02,000 --> 00:26:44,000
for the last few decades,

301
00:26:44,000 --> 00:28:05,000
but according to

302
00:16:16,000 --> 00:26:26,000
Diana semi

303
00:17:07,000 --> 00:16:49,000
it's getting progressively worse.

304
00:21:41,000 --> 00:28:04,000
Most of the people now experiencing 
this high tide is much higher

305
00:29:04,000 --> 00:16:35,000
than

306
00:23:15,000 --> 00:25:35,000
it

307
00:29:05,000 --> 00:16:26,000
hasn't

308
00:21:06,000 --> 00:27:56,000
won and.

309
00:20:22,000 --> 00:23:25,000
If next year is going to happen 
like this and much higher than

310
00:20:46,000 --> 00:28:36,000
this year

311
00:18:17,000 --> 00:22:07,000
then

312
00:28:57,000 --> 00:29:49,000
I don't think there's any 
future for him to.

313
00:16:38,000 --> 00:31:28,000
Through Mario Silva

314
00:20:39,000 --> 00:26:40,000
is now 2 values

315
00:31:50,000 --> 00:19:52,000
disaster coordinator.

316
00:19:56,000 --> 00:21:36,000
The

317
00:28:16,000 --> 00:27:57,000
prediction for tomorrow.

318
00:27:57,000 --> 00:26:58,000
The highest,

319
00:26:58,000 --> 00:19:59,000
but now

320
00:31:49,000 --> 00:31:21,000
looking at this time.

321
00:31:21,000 --> 00:22:12,000
Boats

322
00:28:12,000 --> 00:19:13,000
he flooded.

323
00:19:14,000 --> 00:25:04,000
And so,

324
00:25:04,000 --> 00:20:15,000
so it's them

325
00:17:46,000 --> 00:26:47,000
all their properties is 
they have been cowed

326
00:30:57,000 --> 00:19:38,000
tour

327
00:23:49,000 --> 00:33:00,000
guide binning in all those would be

328
00:24:31,000 --> 00:27:42,000
damaged by this.

329
00:27:42,000 --> 00:19:13,000
See what I.

330
00:28:18,000 --> 00:20:49,000
You can see that

331
00:24:19,000 --> 00:22:50,000
our rubbish everywhere

332
00:17:21,000 --> 00:25:22,000
and you're you seeing that

333
00:29:52,000 --> 00:33:03,000
the kids swimming

334
00:27:44,000 --> 00:18:05,000
and those

335
00:28:45,000 --> 00:18:27,000
waste area,

336
00:18:27,000 --> 00:23:07,000
I think

337
00:27:47,000 --> 00:32:27,000
a big

338
00:22:28,000 --> 00:23:09,000
health problem for kids

339
00:29:09,000 --> 00:24:40,000
and especially his

340
00:29:41,000 --> 00:18:23,000
people thing these houses and.

341
00:27:38,000 --> 00:21:49,000
Very worried

342
00:28:51,000 --> 00:18:02,000
flood

343
00:29:43,000 --> 00:22:04,000
they have

344
00:28:15,000 --> 00:29:45,000
at

345
00:18:26,000 --> 00:23:46,000
door

346
00:20:37,000 --> 00:20:08,000
climbing outside

347
00:29:48,000 --> 00:24:49,000
inside,

348
00:24:49,000 --> 00:17:31,000
but the flow this company here.

349
00:30:43,000 --> 00:22:34,000
Yes.

350
00:22:34,000 --> 00:29:04,000
All my

351
00:18:05,000 --> 00:22:55,000
really.

352
00:30:25,000 --> 00:18:26,000
PC

353
00:29:16,000 --> 00:31:07,000
fear well you here

354
00:27:18,000 --> 00:31:08,000
only

355
00:18:09,000 --> 00:21:20,000
here and at times,

356
00:21:20,000 --> 00:32:02,000
calling them but now this year as they

357
00:19:03,000 --> 00:24:53,000
really

358
00:31:23,000 --> 00:23:14,000
high time

359
00:32:14,000 --> 00:27:16,000
inside the house.

360
00:27:16,000 --> 00:29:27,000
This is the first time

361
00:19:38,000 --> 00:31:18,000
I think to

362
00:33:09,000 --> 00:19:52,000
to move out because and freight.

363
00:26:14,000 --> 00:33:44,000
I don't

364
00:21:45,000 --> 00:22:16,000
know placed move.

365
00:29:29,000 --> 00:25:13,000
But on the islands where the highest 
point is less than 5 meters

366
00:25:13,000 --> 00:28:54,000
above sea level.

367
00:28:54,000 --> 00:22:17,000
There is nowhere else to go.

368
00:22:17,000 --> 00:26:28,000
There are already plans

369
00:30:38,000 --> 00:18:20,000
for some of the population

370
00:23:10,000 --> 00:22:11,000
to be evacuated

371
00:26:11,000 --> 00:22:32,000
to New Zealand.

372
00:22:27,000 --> 00:26:37,000
But

373
00:30:17,000 --> 00:29:08,000
warming seas

374
00:33:48,000 --> 00:31:19,000
don't only mean

375
00:18:50,000 --> 00:27:01,000
rising seas.

376
00:27:01,000 --> 00:20:53,000
They have other implications,

377
00:20:53,000 --> 00:25:53,000
too.

378
00:20:12,000 --> 00:18:34,000
In August 2005

379
00:29:24,000 --> 00:25:58,000
Hurricane Katrina struck the 
coastline of Louisiana,

380
00:25:58,000 --> 00:19:59,000
Mississippi.

381
00:31:12,000 --> 00:24:06,000
Wasn't the high sea temperatures 
that many Katrina so intense.

382
00:26:40,000 --> 00:34:41,000
A typical hurricane,

383
00:34:41,000 --> 00:30:33,000
an atmospheric disturbance over Africa

384
00:32:54,000 --> 00:31:16,000
but it's here in the Gulf of Mexico

385
00:19:47,000 --> 00:21:59,000
that they grow to their 
full destructive power.

386
00:20:50,000 --> 00:33:21,000
How you can expert Greg Holland

387
00:21:22,000 --> 00:24:05,000
has been investigating what 
fueled Katrina's force.

388
00:28:15,000 --> 00:29:08,000
The process requires that the oceans 
be warmer than about 26

389
00:30:08,000 --> 00:26:00,000
degrees Celsius.

390
00:26:00,000 --> 00:33:40,000
The tropical

391
00:22:21,000 --> 00:26:02,000
to get the hurricane started and

392
00:30:02,000 --> 00:33:32,000
Jordanian

393
00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:25,000
from the surface high up 
into the atmosphere

394
00:20:36,000 --> 00:20:27,000
and what this means

395
00:25:07,000 --> 00:28:48,000
the ocean heat energy

396
00:32:28,000 --> 00:28:42,000
is used to fuel the development 
of the immensely powerful winds

397
00:24:23,000 --> 00:20:15,000
and it is so powerful,

398
00:20:15,000 --> 00:20:58,000
he could run the entire electric 
grid of the United States for

399
00:20:58,000 --> 00:31:58,000
several weeks.

400
00:22:54,000 --> 00:35:45,000
Really destructive winds 
are in the region.

401
00:35:45,000 --> 00:31:07,000
Just outside the eye of the hurricane

402
00:27:28,000 --> 00:29:21,000
and this is how strong they shred 
the surface of the ocean into a

403
00:29:21,000 --> 00:36:12,000
morass of sea and spray

404
00:27:43,000 --> 00:25:34,000
to become so think

405
00:33:44,000 --> 00:22:57,000
that the Mitchell becomes impossible 
to tell a difference between

406
00:24:27,000 --> 00:20:08,000
air and water.

407
00:26:10,000 --> 00:27:12,000
And the one the tropical oceans,

408
00:27:12,000 --> 00:24:04,000
the more destructive the 
hurricane can out.

409
00:26:49,000 --> 00:35:22,000
When Harry can Katrina breached 
the levees of New Orleans

410
00:26:33,000 --> 00:32:06,000
sea temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico 
and the Atlantic were the

411
00:32:06,000 --> 00:21:48,000
highest ever recorded.

412
00:35:12,000 --> 00:29:04,000
In the United States.

413
00:29:04,000 --> 00:30:47,000
The intensity and sheer destructiveness 
of the Heineken

414
00:36:07,000 --> 00:26:29,000
became the turning point

415
00:31:49,000 --> 00:25:51,000
in the debate about global warming.

416
00:35:01,000 --> 00:35:12,000
Although scientists

417
00:22:23,000 --> 00:28:56,000
will not say that one particular 
had can is caused by climate

418
00:30:36,000 --> 00:27:27,000
change.

419
00:27:27,000 --> 00:31:30,000
Many are now making the connection 
between global warming

420
00:37:20,000 --> 00:33:54,000
rising sea temperatures and the 
increasing strength of Vatican.

421
00:35:41,000 --> 00:28:34,000
2005 it was the worst season

422
00:33:24,000 --> 00:30:35,000
ever recorded.

423
00:33:49,000 --> 00:36:20,000
And Greg Holland

424
00:25:01,000 --> 00:33:32,000
is one of those who believes

425
00:21:13,000 --> 00:37:34,000
that worse is yet to come.

426
00:35:17,000 --> 00:32:41,000
As you can see there's a massive 
rebuilding program underway,

427
00:32:41,000 --> 00:31:33,000
but unfortunately this 
stretch of coast song

428
00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:36,000
will certainly be revisited by hurricanes,

429
00:21:36,000 --> 00:33:26,000
like a trainer

430
00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:09,000
and because of global climate change

431
00:37:39,000 --> 00:28:01,000
we going to be more intense

432
00:23:02,000 --> 00:35:12,000
more destructive

433
00:28:03,000 --> 00:31:24,000
and possibly more frequent.

434
00:31:18,000 --> 00:33:49,000
It's a grim warning

435
00:31:40,000 --> 00:32:33,000
but is global warming of the 
changes we're now seeing

436
00:22:14,000 --> 00:27:24,000
really

437
00:32:04,000 --> 00:32:15,000
a new phenomenon

438
00:37:35,000 --> 00:21:57,000
in the Earth's history.

439
00:30:33,000 --> 00:31:14,000
These days,

440
00:31:14,000 --> 00:30:56,000
when we talk of climate change,

441
00:30:56,000 --> 00:23:27,000
we tend

442
00:28:47,000 --> 00:28:08,000
to mean changes

443
00:33:28,000 --> 00:22:01,000
that we ourselves have brought about,

444
00:22:01,000 --> 00:36:22,000
but of course the climate of the Earth

445
00:25:23,000 --> 00:25:45,000
has always been changing,

446
00:25:45,000 --> 00:33:06,000
either because of some great,

447
00:33:06,000 --> 00:31:47,000
cosmic event

448
00:36:37,000 --> 00:29:09,000
like a collision with a meteorite

449
00:37:49,000 --> 00:33:11,000
or else because of some more slower

450
00:22:52,000 --> 00:26:43,000
gradual change

451
00:34:23,000 --> 00:37:35,000
in the amount of energy 
that the Earth receives

452
00:24:26,000 --> 00:35:56,000
from the sun.

453
00:29:08,000 --> 00:30:28,000
The

454
00:34:08,000 --> 00:37:01,000
reborn rearguard.

455
00:25:38,000 --> 00:38:28,000
It's the sun

456
00:27:59,000 --> 00:37:01,000
that provides our planet 
with warmth and light.

457
00:37:43,000 --> 00:24:44,000
Why

458
00:36:14,000 --> 00:38:34,000
when

459
00:34:16,000 --> 00:24:57,000
you know.

460
00:37:10,000 --> 00:23:42,000
Not the amount amenities

461
00:31:32,000 --> 00:27:04,000
that the Earth receives from the sun

462
00:32:44,000 --> 00:37:54,000
there.

463
00:31:29,000 --> 00:34:59,000
You know.

464
00:26:50,000 --> 00:24:54,000
In cycles of tense and often hundreds 
of thousands of years

465
00:30:24,000 --> 00:38:44,000
the earth

466
00:26:25,000 --> 00:22:58,000
tilts and changes it orbits around the sun

467
00:31:08,000 --> 00:32:19,000
and with each cycle

468
00:37:39,000 --> 00:23:22,000
the patterns of light 
energy playing on the

469
00:33:32,000 --> 00:26:43,000
changes.

470
00:34:54,000 --> 00:23:36,000
These natural changes

471
00:28:16,000 --> 00:25:27,000
have contributed

472
00:29:37,000 --> 00:36:29,000
to dramatic shift in my client

473
00:27:41,000 --> 00:25:53,000
in the time of the dinosaurs.

474
00:25:53,000 --> 00:37:14,000
It was much warmer than it is now.

475
00:36:35,000 --> 00:27:27,000
He would have found dinosaurs

476
00:33:47,000 --> 00:23:29,000
roaming in forests,

477
00:23:29,000 --> 00:37:40,000
close to the north and south poles.

478
00:31:23,000 --> 00:26:35,000
70 million years after that

479
00:33:05,000 --> 00:30:37,000
much of our Paris was freezing.

480
00:30:37,000 --> 00:32:00,000
It's become locked in a 
cycle of success if ice

481
00:35:40,000 --> 00:25:41,000
ages.

482
00:30:34,000 --> 00:33:57,000
If the city of New York had existed 160.

483
00:36:17,000 --> 00:36:18,000
Thousand years ago

484
00:26:39,000 --> 00:33:49,000
it would have.

485
00:33:59,000 --> 00:34:42,000
Been on the edge of an ice pack 
some 2 kilometers high

486
00:27:13,000 --> 00:36:16,000
and yet global temperatures were 
only 4 degrees lower than they

487
00:36:16,000 --> 00:28:47,000
are today.

488
00:32:30,000 --> 00:29:02,000
30 thousand years later,

489
00:29:02,000 --> 00:26:53,000
the same city

490
00:30:33,000 --> 00:36:05,000
would have been under 5 meters of water

491
00:33:26,000 --> 00:33:19,000
yet global temperatures were 
less than 2 degrees warmer.

492
00:30:12,000 --> 00:34:04,000
This see-sawing in the Earth's climate

493
00:40:24,000 --> 00:38:16,000
was driven by natural forces

494
00:25:27,000 --> 00:30:08,000
long before mankind

495
00:33:48,000 --> 00:38:48,000
appear.

496
00:38:25,000 --> 00:35:46,000
But there's another

497
00:25:27,000 --> 00:33:19,000
powerful influence on our climate.

498
00:33:19,000 --> 00:40:00,000
If we have to take into account

499
00:40:11,000 --> 00:34:32,000
among the

500
00:38:42,000 --> 00:34:45,000
many glasses that make 
up the air we breathe,

501
00:34:45,000 --> 00:29:16,000
there is one

502
00:32:56,000 --> 00:25:58,000
that is particularly important

503
00:30:38,000 --> 00:30:09,000
carbon dioxide

504
00:25:10,000 --> 00:29:40,000
it

505
00:33:20,000 --> 00:24:52,000
traps the sun's energy

506
00:28:42,000 --> 00:33:43,000
and so keeps a panic.

507
00:26:27,000 --> 00:36:09,000
Greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide

508
00:26:50,000 --> 00:40:01,000
act as a blanket around the earth

509
00:29:32,000 --> 00:32:15,000
prevent in the sun's energy from 
reflecting back into space.

510
00:36:45,000 --> 00:28:06,000
Left.

511
00:41:10,000 --> 00:37:54,000
It's called the greenhouse effect 
and it prevented the planet from

512
00:37:54,000 --> 00:28:55,000
freezing

513
00:32:25,000 --> 00:34:36,000
since the earth began

514
00:32:57,000 --> 00:39:47,000
without

515
00:30:48,000 --> 00:25:01,000
the global temperature would be minus 19

516
00:25:02,000 --> 00:28:32,000
subsidies.

517
00:32:48,000 --> 00:28:49,000
On the face fit

518
00:32:49,000 --> 00:36:51,000
carbon dioxide seems to be a good thing

519
00:29:12,000 --> 00:39:55,000
it stops our planet from freezing 
and so sustains life on Earth

520
00:29:26,000 --> 00:27:57,000
and without it,

521
00:27:57,000 --> 00:33:30,000
no plant could grow because they 
need carbon to build their

522
00:33:30,000 --> 00:38:30,000
tissues.

523
00:40:26,000 --> 00:29:19,000
Leaves absorb the gas from the atmosphere

524
00:36:29,000 --> 00:32:50,000
through their pores.

525
00:39:07,000 --> 00:38:00,000
They then break down on the 
carbon dioxide molecules

526
00:31:52,000 --> 00:32:13,000
released the oxygen

527
00:39:23,000 --> 00:40:24,000
and retain the Cup.

528
00:39:20,000 --> 00:28:13,000
Over hundreds of millions of years

529
00:34:23,000 --> 00:34:04,000
the great forests

530
00:29:15,000 --> 00:41:56,000
so much carbon dioxide.

531
00:41:56,000 --> 00:42:17,000
Out of the atmosphere

532
00:34:28,000 --> 00:40:28,000
that they

533
00:27:19,000 --> 00:28:42,000
reduce the greenhouse effect 
and cool the planet down.

534
00:32:33,000 --> 00:38:24,000
When the trees died.

535
00:38:24,000 --> 00:33:15,000
They were buried

536
00:40:35,000 --> 00:34:36,000
and overtime

537
00:41:06,000 --> 00:36:18,000
crushed and compressed

538
00:40:38,000 --> 00:31:10,000
with the carbon still within

539
00:27:42,000 --> 00:39:53,000
in the ages that followed.

540
00:39:53,000 --> 00:36:15,000
These layers are slowly buried

541
00:39:45,000 --> 00:28:47,000
beneath the earth's surface.

542
00:30:00,000 --> 00:31:13,000
At this open cast coal mine in China,

543
00:31:13,000 --> 00:34:25,000
you can descend for 500m

544
00:38:55,000 --> 00:36:27,000
through layer upon layer of rock

545
00:42:27,000 --> 00:34:50,000
representing 10s of millions of years.

546
00:38:35,000 --> 00:29:47,000
Right at the bottom,

547
00:29:47,000 --> 00:34:07,000
a layer

548
00:39:27,000 --> 00:38:19,000
of what was once would and leaves

549
00:29:10,000 --> 00:42:40,000
and is now

550
00:32:11,000 --> 00:41:01,000
coal and.

551
00:42:06,000 --> 00:33:48,000
It's an ideal place

552
00:38:48,000 --> 00:35:40,000
for Professor Bob Spicer

553
00:41:00,000 --> 00:43:01,000
to studies appliances

554
00:32:32,000 --> 00:37:53,000
influence the climate.

555
00:37:53,000 --> 00:39:04,000
All that time ago.

556
00:38:49,000 --> 00:34:10,000
These leaves

557
00:38:00,000 --> 00:43:31,000
blast saw the light of day.

558
00:43:31,000 --> 00:33:33,000
Some 50 million years ago

559
00:28:34,000 --> 00:36:24,000
when they were

560
00:41:44,000 --> 00:37:55,000
on the trees

561
00:37:36,000 --> 00:29:20,000
taking in carbon dioxide and 
using the energy of the sun

562
00:39:20,000 --> 00:41:01,000
the fix that carbon

563
00:28:42,000 --> 00:37:32,000
into

564
00:28:53,000 --> 00:37:16,000
their tissues and leaves 
and twigs and the like.

565
00:37:16,000 --> 00:35:07,000
Now the original

566
00:36:50,000 --> 00:42:30,000
had a

567
00:35:41,000 --> 00:40:33,000
cooling effect on the atmosphere 
because they were

568
00:31:14,000 --> 00:39:25,000
taking carbon dioxide out

569
00:39:06,000 --> 00:32:07,000
and where we

570
00:38:17,000 --> 00:42:57,000
Burnley

571
00:36:29,000 --> 00:30:10,000
the call

572
00:34:30,000 --> 00:43:01,000
on the carbon.

573
00:43:01,000 --> 00:31:33,000
That's nice one,

574
00:31:33,000 --> 00:28:45,000
and put it back into the atmosphere.

575
00:28:45,000 --> 00:36:15,000
Today

576
00:42:35,000 --> 00:36:18,000
we have the opposite effect 
we warm up the atmosphere.

577
00:36:34,000 --> 00:43:24,000
Now

578
00:31:25,000 --> 00:40:47,000
all the coal is being carried 
up to the surface

579
00:29:28,000 --> 00:30:30,000
to be burned in the power station,

580
00:30:30,000 --> 00:38:23,000
which provides electricity for hundreds 
of thousands of people.

581
00:31:08,000 --> 00:34:19,000
Oil and gas

582
00:42:19,000 --> 00:41:30,000
Nicol also

583
00:31:21,000 --> 00:29:02,000
fossil fuel.

584
00:42:56,000 --> 00:38:08,000
When such fuels averting

585
00:31:19,000 --> 00:36:11,000
the carbon re combines with oxygen

586
00:28:32,000 --> 00:43:03,000
and is released back into the atmosphere

587
00:32:54,000 --> 00:36:35,000
as carbon dioxide.

588
00:36:03,000 --> 00:31:28,000
The carbon dioxide spreads evenly 
through the Earth's atmosphere.

589
00:31:28,000 --> 00:40:38,000
Sickening.

590
00:40:38,000 --> 00:30:10,000
The greenhouse blanket the

591
00:37:20,000 --> 00:29:01,000
the world

592
00:35:32,000 --> 00:32:24,000
and further warming the planet.

593
00:43:30,000 --> 00:29:04,000
That blanket extends for 
miles above the earth's

594
00:36:55,000 --> 00:38:27,000
as you climb up away from the Earth the.

595
00:43:37,000 --> 00:32:19,000
Is become thinner.

596
00:32:19,000 --> 00:42:59,000
The temperature.

597
00:42:59,000 --> 00:40:40,000
As a result,

598
00:40:40,000 --> 00:33:01,000
becomes colder.

599
00:34:22,000 --> 00:45:35,000
It was while I was making the living 
planet in the mid 1980s

600
00:35:26,000 --> 00:37:09,000
the tide began to appreciate the 
crucial role of the atmosphere

601
00:41:19,000 --> 00:45:20,000
in shaping our climate.

602
00:33:33,000 --> 00:40:03,000
We are

603
00:45:03,000 --> 00:29:55,000
very close to the top

604
00:29:36,000 --> 00:33:56,000
of

605
00:32:47,000 --> 00:45:07,000
our environment

606
00:39:59,000 --> 00:36:50,000
for all the

607
00:31:31,000 --> 00:39:51,000
goes on

608
00:32:12,000 --> 00:41:42,000
within the

609
00:41:23,000 --> 00:29:24,000
5

610
00:43:14,000 --> 00:31:06,000
brief Miles this

611
00:44:26,000 --> 00:37:07,000
envelope

612
00:36:18,000 --> 00:40:19,000
of atmosphere that wrapped

613
00:44:29,000 --> 00:44:20,000
around the world,

614
00:44:20,000 --> 00:46:01,000
it's here,

615
00:46:01,000 --> 00:37:32,000
but the weather

616
00:32:33,000 --> 00:41:23,000
is manufactured.

617
00:38:55,000 --> 00:31:17,000
When I spoke those words

618
00:34:57,000 --> 00:36:40,000
scientists were already detecting 
crucial changes in the

619
00:36:40,000 --> 00:32:42,000
composition of the atmosphere.

620
00:32:42,000 --> 00:33:23,000
In particular,

621
00:33:23,000 --> 00:36:54,000
changes in the level

622
00:43:24,000 --> 00:29:56,000
of carbon dioxide.

623
00:30:30,000 --> 00:46:00,000
All over the planet

624
00:33:11,000 --> 00:43:04,000
they were recording rising levels 
of that particular gas in there

625
00:43:04,000 --> 00:39:51,000
. The first regular

626
00:39:51,000 --> 00:37:23,000
measurements were started 48

627
00:42:03,000 --> 00:40:14,000
years ago,

628
00:40:14,000 --> 00:37:37,000
from the top of the extinct 
volcano of money on lower

629
00:45:27,000 --> 00:41:28,000
in Hawaii.

630
00:31:21,000 --> 00:36:24,000
And it is the rate at which the 
carbon dioxide blanket is

631
00:36:24,000 --> 00:41:14,000
thickening

632
00:33:35,000 --> 00:46:46,000
that is causing so much concern.

633
00:39:34,000 --> 00:39:46,000
When I was a boy in the 1930s

634
00:31:17,000 --> 00:37:50,000
. The carbon dioxide back 
it was still below 300

635
00:41:40,000 --> 00:32:51,000
parts

636
00:37:01,000 --> 00:46:01,000
per million.

637
00:30:56,000 --> 00:39:36,000
This year

638
00:45:16,000 --> 00:38:39,000
the thickness reached 382

639
00:36:10,000 --> 00:35:41,000
the highest figure

640
00:40:21,000 --> 00:33:33,000
for hundreds of thousands.

641
00:43:20,000 --> 00:32:04,000
But how can we possibly know 
that carbon dioxide levels

642
00:36:14,000 --> 00:34:25,000
are higher now

643
00:38:05,000 --> 00:32:27,000
than they were thousands of years ago.

644
00:43:18,000 --> 00:36:30,000
In Patagonia is ice fields

645
00:43:40,000 --> 00:39:03,000
huge gaps open up in the summer months,

646
00:39:03,000 --> 00:33:46,000
giving scientists a chance to investigate

647
00:37:16,000 --> 00:31:18,000
far below the glasses.

648
00:37:51,000 --> 00:35:12,000
Stephen Harrison

649
00:42:32,000 --> 00:44:16,000
is taking the opportunity to descend 
deep into a pair of us in the

650
00:44:16,000 --> 00:37:42,000
. It's risky.

651
00:43:02,000 --> 00:32:53,000
You,

652
00:32:53,000 --> 00:37:33,000
you know.

653
00:39:23,000 --> 00:45:25,000
The glasses a melting so fast.

654
00:45:25,000 --> 00:41:18,000
The potentially invaluable 
records of the past

655
00:48:08,000 --> 00:37:39,000
artists.

656
00:45:10,000 --> 00:32:41,000
Yes.

657
00:32:41,000 --> 00:45:32,000
Ice cap in which his glasses flow from

658
00:36:23,000 --> 00:48:15,000
is melting more quickly probably 
than any other comparable ice

659
00:32:16,000 --> 00:48:26,000
mass on Earth.

660
00:48:26,000 --> 00:32:58,000
You can see them out of water,

661
00:32:58,000 --> 00:32:09,000
which is around us.

662
00:32:39,000 --> 00:41:09,000
Stephen

663
00:45:09,000 --> 00:41:02,000
has spent the last 20 years studying

664
00:44:42,000 --> 00:39:55,000
Latinos and past climates,

665
00:39:55,000 --> 00:44:28,000
he knows that ice can preserve 
valuable evidence.

666
00:47:17,000 --> 00:40:31,000
Carbon dioxide is a as an important 
driver of climate change.

667
00:40:31,000 --> 00:48:21,000
In other words,

668
00:48:21,000 --> 00:43:33,000
is that important factor in in

669
00:47:53,000 --> 00:42:35,000
in changing the global climate.

670
00:42:35,000 --> 00:37:58,000
You have to see how come not citing 
changed with the pattern

671
00:35:49,000 --> 00:35:21,000
periods and warm period 
throughout her history.

672
00:47:52,000 --> 00:47:34,000
You can see the ice here 
is absolutely full

673
00:35:05,000 --> 00:36:06,000
of of of bubbles

674
00:39:46,000 --> 00:36:17,000
from the bubbles informed

675
00:41:17,000 --> 00:34:08,000
when the ice

676
00:42:08,000 --> 00:48:59,000
was formed.

677
00:48:59,000 --> 00:36:21,000
And of course the bubbles contain

678
00:43:01,000 --> 00:47:13,000
atmosphere oxygen and carbon dioxide

679
00:45:15,000 --> 00:42:18,000
if we want to understand the 
the role of carbon dioxide

680
00:46:18,000 --> 00:43:31,000
as a sort of as a thermal 
blanket over the earth.

681
00:43:31,000 --> 00:44:14,000
We need to know about how come 
a dark side has changed the

682
00:44:14,000 --> 00:39:46,000
concentrations of change in the atmosphere

683
00:44:06,000 --> 00:39:48,000
over hundreds of thousands of years.

684
00:39:48,000 --> 00:38:30,000
An analysis of bubbles such as these

685
00:42:30,000 --> 00:39:03,000
in places like Antarctica and Greenland 
gives us that that that's

686
00:39:03,000 --> 00:34:54,000
fantastic record.

687
00:44:49,000 --> 00:50:13,000
That record is now also preserved 
thousands of miles away.

688
00:50:13,000 --> 00:38:34,000
Not

689
00:43:44,000 --> 00:48:36,000
in the ice fields as originally 
contained it

690
00:37:27,000 --> 00:38:58,000
but in Denver,

691
00:38:58,000 --> 00:49:58,000
Colorado.

692
00:47:30,000 --> 00:40:34,000
In this store room of the United 
States national ice core

693
00:40:34,000 --> 00:35:55,000
laboratory

694
00:42:25,000 --> 00:46:38,000
hundreds of thousands of years' 
worth of ice core records

695
00:35:39,000 --> 00:48:59,000
are maintained

696
00:36:20,000 --> 00:37:42,000
at minus 36 degrees.

697
00:47:50,000 --> 00:35:15,000
These ice cores have been extracted 
from as much as 3 kilometers

698
00:40:05,000 --> 00:44:37,000
beneath the polar ice caps.

699
00:44:37,000 --> 00:44:59,000
I mean for Professor marks a rare as

700
00:48:29,000 --> 00:49:52,000
each one provides a valuable 
source of information

701
00:38:13,000 --> 00:50:24,000
about a particular moment in the past.

702
00:38:49,000 --> 00:43:59,000
Well,

703
00:43:59,000 --> 00:48:19,000
this

704
00:37:50,000 --> 00:46:10,000
particular

705
00:49:40,000 --> 00:44:13,000
chunk of ice was about 16,000 years old

706
00:49:13,000 --> 00:42:15,000
come from the Greenland ice sheet.

707
00:44:57,000 --> 00:45:09,000
What we see here are layers of fossils

708
00:48:39,000 --> 00:38:10,000
snow

709
00:49:00,000 --> 00:44:52,000
every year on the top of Greenland,

710
00:44:52,000 --> 00:35:34,000
there's an accumulation of snow

711
00:43:44,000 --> 00:50:44,000
and

712
00:37:45,000 --> 00:39:16,000
this is a good compacted

713
00:43:16,000 --> 00:51:08,000
you're through years layer 
after layer of snow

714
00:40:19,000 --> 00:40:31,000
eventually before these layers of ice

715
00:46:01,000 --> 00:43:53,000
and it's within these layers of ice

716
00:48:43,000 --> 00:48:36,000
that we can tell all kinds of things 
about deep that the Earth's

717
00:48:36,000 --> 00:40:47,000
past

718
00:49:27,000 --> 00:44:59,000
what we find today is at the carbonate

719
00:49:49,000 --> 00:36:13,000
oxide concentrations in the atmosphere 
are higher than anything

720
00:38:43,000 --> 00:38:06,000
we've seen in the past 600,000 years.

721
00:38:06,000 --> 00:36:49,000
It's telling us that human activities 
are having a strong him.

722
00:38:49,000 --> 00:37:20,000
Back on the claim it's,

723
00:37:20,000 --> 00:40:00,000
it's.

724
00:50:35,000 --> 00:45:18,000
It if we measure this in parts 
per million of carbon

725
00:49:18,000 --> 00:42:20,000
oxides in the atmosphere,

726
00:42:20,000 --> 00:42:43,000
what we call the pre-industrial 
output before he wins were

727
00:43:53,000 --> 00:39:04,000
starting to have a team

728
00:37:45,000 --> 00:40:47,000
with around 27280

729
00:44:18,000 --> 00:51:28,000
Premier League.

730
00:49:42,000 --> 00:39:24,000
What we've seen now.

731
00:39:24,000 --> 00:41:47,000
The most recent record today are 
telling us that it's up to about

732
00:41:47,000 --> 00:39:58,000
380

733
00:45:29,000 --> 00:50:59,000
for the.

734
00:52:41,000 --> 00:43:25,000
So you can see that today if levels 
are far beyond anything that

735
00:43:25,000 --> 00:45:45,000
we.

736
00:49:21,000 --> 00:46:53,000
If you talk to be 5 years ago

737
00:37:54,000 --> 00:37:45,000
I would have been

738
00:41:35,000 --> 00:41:36,000
kind of a fence sitter

739
00:46:06,000 --> 00:46:37,000
on this whole idea

740
00:52:37,000 --> 00:39:18,000
of

741
00:42:58,000 --> 00:48:20,000
greenhouse gases involved 
in climate change

742
00:37:41,000 --> 00:36:52,000
no war.

743
00:36:52,000 --> 00:42:23,000
The changes that we've seen

744
00:48:53,000 --> 00:41:57,000
seem to be much too strong much 
too radical to be just simply

745
00:41:57,000 --> 00:48:19,000
explained by natural climate cycles.

746
00:52:43,000 --> 00:48:06,000
What we're seeing now is 
the impact of humans

747
00:52:56,000 --> 00:41:09,000
humans are starting to change 
the climate itself.

748
00:53:42,000 --> 00:52:53,000
Those changes

749
00:41:34,000 --> 00:45:55,000
could now be occurring.

750
00:45:55,000 --> 00:46:46,000
Even in places

751
00:50:16,000 --> 00:53:07,000
which are absorbing

752
00:40:28,000 --> 00:51:59,000
huge amounts of cotton dioxide.

753
00:46:42,000 --> 00:38:53,000
The Emerson

754
00:43:33,000 --> 00:38:56,000
is often referred to as 
the lungs of the world

755
00:48:36,000 --> 00:40:41,000
for here plants taken vast volumes 
of carbon dioxide and give out

756
00:40:41,000 --> 00:49:21,000
oxygen

757
00:48:52,000 --> 00:38:36,000
to appreciate the immensity of the 
greenery where this gaseous

758
00:38:36,000 --> 00:50:37,000
exchange takes place.

759
00:50:37,000 --> 00:51:09,000
You have to get up into the branches,

760
00:51:09,000 --> 00:50:21,000
some 50m about the ground.

761
00:40:24,000 --> 00:43:24,000
I'm

762
00:47:24,000 --> 00:45:25,000
up in the canopy

763
00:52:45,000 --> 00:49:26,000
of the jungle.

764
00:49:26,000 --> 00:47:18,000
The tropical rainforest,

765
00:47:18,000 --> 00:52:18,000
here

766
00:40:59,000 --> 00:46:10,000
there is a greater bulk

767
00:53:30,000 --> 00:54:23,000
of life both animal and plant 
and the greater diversity too

768
00:46:24,000 --> 00:42:05,000
and can be found

769
00:46:45,000 --> 00:47:36,000
anywhere else at all

770
00:38:17,000 --> 00:44:58,000
and this huge proliferation

771
00:51:58,000 --> 00:50:50,000
comes from 2 main courses

772
00:42:01,000 --> 00:47:41,000
warmth

773
00:38:12,000 --> 00:49:42,000
and witness

774
00:41:43,000 --> 00:42:46,000
the wetness comes from the 
abundant Equatorial rains

775
00:49:46,000 --> 00:41:27,000
for warmth

776
00:48:47,000 --> 00:46:48,000
from the tropical sun

777
00:39:49,000 --> 00:53:49,000
and between them.

778
00:53:49,000 --> 00:54:01,000
Those 2 factors have created the jungle

779
00:45:02,000 --> 00:50:03,000
which stretches in a broken

780
00:38:34,000 --> 00:51:44,000
green band

781
00:41:05,000 --> 00:51:25,000
Wright round.

782
00:39:50,000 --> 00:38:21,000
20 years later

783
00:45:11,000 --> 00:45:03,000
and in spite of intensive logging

784
00:49:13,000 --> 00:54:35,000
vast areas of this phone is still survive.

785
00:40:26,000 --> 00:52:00,000
Bridgestone Youzhny.

786
00:54:01,000 --> 00:43:43,000
But scientists like

787
00:47:33,000 --> 00:51:23,000
down

788
00:55:03,000 --> 00:48:24,000
next had

789
00:43:15,000 --> 00:50:47,000
in covering an even more sinister threat

790
00:54:17,000 --> 00:53:18,000
to the health of the John.

791
00:53:58,000 --> 00:39:59,000
Go

792
00:44:49,000 --> 00:43:40,000
them deforestation

793
00:51:02,000 --> 00:51:23,000
he has discovered

794
00:39:04,000 --> 00:40:46,000
that many of the largest traders

795
00:45:16,000 --> 00:39:47,000
are dying.

796
00:52:29,000 --> 00:44:30,000
What I think

797
00:54:00,000 --> 00:44:04,000
is for me the most scary part about 
the future of the Amazon

798
00:47:35,000 --> 00:39:36,000
is drought

799
00:45:36,000 --> 00:40:49,000
because when a drought comes often 
with very little warning

800
00:51:19,000 --> 00:40:41,000
it affects not just

801
00:52:11,000 --> 00:53:42,000
one or 2%

802
00:45:13,000 --> 00:45:34,000
of the basin,

803
00:45:34,000 --> 00:49:55,000
it's an effect 30%

804
00:40:46,000 --> 00:48:46,000
for us

805
00:41:57,000 --> 00:43:10,000
in ways that we are just now learning 
can be quite devastating to

806
00:43:10,000 --> 00:52:30,000
the forest.

807
00:42:44,000 --> 00:49:35,000
In 2005

808
00:41:46,000 --> 00:40:50,000
the Amazon region suffered its 
worst drought in 60 years.

809
00:45:02,000 --> 00:48:33,000
The lack of rain,

810
00:48:33,000 --> 00:40:36,000
led to a catastrophic fall in river levels

811
00:49:56,000 --> 00:40:28,000
decimating the fish popular.

812
00:52:22,000 --> 00:44:34,000
6 months after the drought

813
00:52:44,000 --> 00:40:27,000
Dan never stat is finding that the trees

814
00:44:37,000 --> 00:51:38,000
have still not recovered.

815
00:45:59,000 --> 00:40:31,000
Right now we're measuring how much

816
00:50:21,000 --> 00:44:53,000
water stress the tree that

817
00:49:23,000 --> 00:54:03,000
this leaf

818
00:42:54,000 --> 00:55:35,000
growing on who was under when we cut it.

819
00:47:41,000 --> 00:52:43,000
Last year's drought caught 
assault by surprise

820
00:44:34,000 --> 00:50:24,000
they've had

821
00:53:54,000 --> 00:47:48,000
devastating effects and the people 
who live in the Amazon.

822
00:47:48,000 --> 00:44:20,000
We're just right now getting a handle on

823
00:49:40,000 --> 00:44:14,000
how many hundreds of thousands 
of square kilometers of forest

824
00:50:14,000 --> 00:44:17,000
were severely damaged by a drought killing

825
00:48:27,000 --> 00:54:48,000
enormous trees,

826
00:54:48,000 --> 00:43:11,000
which are the key organisms 
in these ecosystems

827
00:52:51,000 --> 00:43:23,000
could be the 2006

828
00:48:33,000 --> 00:42:17,000
is it your full of forest fire because 
of the drought of 2005.

829
00:51:30,000 --> 00:42:05,000
The drought was linked to the abnormally 
warm seas in the Atlantic

830
00:42:05,000 --> 00:50:58,000
, which disrupted the rainfall 
patterns in the forests.

831
00:41:40,000 --> 00:53:21,000
It's particularly worrisome because.

832
00:48:32,000 --> 00:48:25,000
It's the type of ocean heating and 
it seems to cause the drought

833
00:49:25,000 --> 00:42:37,000
in the Amazon last year that is

834
00:46:47,000 --> 00:54:28,000
exactly what is predicted,

835
00:54:28,000 --> 00:50:09,000
and their scenario

836
00:50:10,000 --> 00:42:21,000
hopeful who worry.

837
00:44:01,000 --> 00:49:21,000
Yes.

838
00:50:56,000 --> 00:47:17,000
But the Amazon

839
00:53:07,000 --> 00:47:10,000
is not the only rich ecosystem

840
00:51:00,000 --> 00:46:11,000
now at risk.

841
00:42:27,000 --> 00:49:20,000
The world's coral reefs and other 
marine equivalent of the

842
00:52:10,000 --> 00:54:33,000
rainforest teeming with countless 
different species.

843
00:53:08,000 --> 00:55:08,000
That

844
00:46:49,000 --> 00:50:09,000
you know.

845
00:55:39,000 --> 00:46:33,000
Warming sea temperatures are already 
putting the oceans and the

846
00:46:33,000 --> 00:45:24,000
life within them

847
00:49:04,000 --> 00:43:26,000
under increasing strain.

848
00:46:58,000 --> 00:43:02,000
The 2000 kilometer long Great 
Barrier Reef in Australia

849
00:53:22,000 --> 00:52:54,000
is one of the wonders of the world.

850
00:48:46,000 --> 00:51:58,000
Early in the life on Earth series

851
00:57:28,000 --> 00:52:30,000
I examined it for myself.

852
00:50:54,000 --> 00:57:04,000
The reason

853
00:47:45,000 --> 00:47:37,000
may look like some fantastic

854
00:52:57,000 --> 00:44:48,000
multicolored

855
00:48:28,000 --> 00:42:51,000
jungle of plants and flowers.

856
00:42:51,000 --> 00:55:21,000
But when you touch,

857
00:55:21,000 --> 00:52:32,000
one,

858
00:52:32,000 --> 00:45:44,000
it has a hard being incongruous

859
00:53:44,000 --> 00:45:15,000
crunch

860
00:52:15,000 --> 00:44:46,000
the stone.

861
00:44:10,000 --> 00:57:41,000
Then 27 years ago

862
00:50:42,000 --> 00:58:02,000
the reef

863
00:44:53,000 --> 00:53:06,000
seemed won a huge unblemished 
and healthy world of its own.

864
00:50:52,000 --> 00:55:34,000
I described the intimate relationship

865
00:48:25,000 --> 00:55:57,000
between the tiny animal coral polyps

866
00:43:48,000 --> 00:49:40,000
and the alchemy that shelter inside them.

867
00:53:20,000 --> 00:43:11,000
Lately.

868
00:43:51,000 --> 00:46:04,000
A relationship established hundreds 
of millions of years ago

869
00:54:44,000 --> 00:48:38,000
that eventually produced Greece 
so immense that they're visible

870
00:51:38,000 --> 00:49:49,000
from space.

871
00:52:20,000 --> 00:46:12,000
So it may well be the river

872
00:55:22,000 --> 00:54:54,000
passing astronaut came this way,

873
00:54:54,000 --> 00:49:15,000
several hundred

874
00:56:55,000 --> 00:52:47,000
million years ago,

875
00:52:47,000 --> 00:50:38,000
you might have noticed.

876
00:58:12,000 --> 00:58:14,000
But at the time I was making the series

877
00:48:45,000 --> 00:50:48,000
I was unaware of a new and 
disturbing phenomenon.

878
00:56:15,000 --> 00:51:56,000
Now,

879
00:51:56,000 --> 00:49:08,000
in early 2006

880
00:57:48,000 --> 00:59:00,000
the state of the car on the Barrier Reef

881
00:46:31,000 --> 00:45:44,000
is worrying marine biologist 
Ove Hoegh Guldberg.

882
01:00:07,000 --> 00:45:49,000
In recent years.

883
00:45:49,000 --> 00:52:30,000
He and other scientists

884
00:56:10,000 --> 00:53:03,000
have found that the reefs a far more 
sensitive to see temperatures

885
00:51:44,000 --> 00:53:15,000
than they had previously.

886
00:52:12,000 --> 00:59:42,000
This year

887
00:50:23,000 --> 00:44:46,000
has seen temperatures are abnormally high.

888
00:46:45,000 --> 00:54:26,000
Everywhere and up.

889
00:54:26,000 --> 00:58:36,000
Well,

890
00:58:36,000 --> 00:58:48,000
I can say it isn't blitz Carl's

891
00:46:09,000 --> 00:52:19,000
Carlson

892
00:58:19,000 --> 00:54:00,000
Adobe proudly

893
00:57:41,000 --> 01:00:01,000
Anelka

894
00:52:02,000 --> 00:54:42,000
existing

895
00:45:33,000 --> 00:48:14,000
a brilliant bike.

896
00:48:14,000 --> 00:55:45,000
This is the cost of the out,

897
00:55:45,000 --> 00:59:36,000
you have a lot of that this is

898
00:48:48,000 --> 00:47:59,000
all that's left of the

899
00:54:59,000 --> 00:46:30,000
absolutely

900
00:52:50,000 --> 00:48:21,000
reflect the skeletons

901
00:58:42,000 --> 00:47:44,000
okay I'm here,

902
00:47:44,000 --> 01:00:44,000
I just saved

903
00:47:46,000 --> 00:58:17,000
and later after they don't

904
00:48:58,000 --> 00:54:49,000
the time glitz golf

905
00:49:20,000 --> 00:58:11,000
and silicone struggling,

906
00:58:11,000 --> 00:52:15,000
but I think I said it really 
quite like this before.

907
00:52:15,000 --> 00:44:56,000
If you cut off.

908
00:59:49,000 --> 00:51:51,000
What is particularly unsettling

909
00:56:41,000 --> 00:51:02,000
scientist

910
00:56:12,000 --> 00:50:05,000
is that this reaching is 
becoming more frequent

911
00:53:26,000 --> 00:52:49,000
is sea temperatures remain 
high for too long.

912
00:52:49,000 --> 01:00:50,000
Then the out he won't return

913
00:51:01,000 --> 00:52:52,000
and the call may die

914
00:46:04,000 --> 00:54:34,000
Ove Hoegh

915
00:49:25,000 --> 00:47:06,000
is using approved

916
00:56:26,000 --> 00:45:38,000
to discover how stressed

917
00:49:18,000 --> 00:45:49,000
this Congress.

918
00:49:31,000 --> 00:55:22,000
I tells me that you know

919
00:50:53,000 --> 01:00:53,000
most of the

920
00:54:44,000 --> 00:56:54,000
Algeria,

921
00:56:54,000 --> 01:01:35,000
who left in these corals

922
00:53:46,000 --> 00:54:47,000
are severely damaged

923
01:00:47,000 --> 00:55:29,000
and I've been terrorized by combination

924
00:46:00,000 --> 00:45:51,000
of heat and likely.

925
00:59:48,000 --> 00:47:29,000
Away.

926
00:55:49,000 --> 00:48:11,000
When I come here and see this

927
00:55:02,000 --> 00:51:14,000
said it really stressed out rescue

928
00:46:06,000 --> 00:57:57,000
a former self getting really concerned

929
00:58:48,000 --> 01:01:09,000
it's another reminder

930
00:58:30,000 --> 00:53:03,000
that there are a huge changes on 
the way with climate change

931
00:47:44,000 --> 00:51:05,000
in the,

932
00:51:05,000 --> 00:47:57,000
this is the 3rd bleaching event

933
00:51:27,000 --> 01:00:19,000
in the last 90 years of the Great 
Barrier anything and everything

934
00:45:50,000 --> 00:50:00,000
they had

935
00:52:51,000 --> 00:56:01,000
and

936
00:49:02,000 --> 00:48:03,000
as predicted if

937
00:59:03,000 --> 01:01:24,000
they getting more frequent

938
00:51:55,000 --> 00:54:55,000
and

939
00:49:56,000 --> 00:49:07,000
and more severe head

940
00:55:58,000 --> 00:52:41,000
and I called customer funds 
that you rather frightening

941
00:57:21,000 --> 00:56:12,000
movement

942
00:52:23,000 --> 00:54:54,000
in the area.

943
00:58:46,000 --> 00:59:56,000
Of

944
00:50:49,000 --> 00:51:49,000
of.

945
00:51:30,000 --> 00:51:41,000
Devastating thought

946
00:49:52,000 --> 01:01:43,000
but if the warming continues.

947
01:01:43,000 --> 00:55:55,000
Some of our richest environment.

948
00:57:25,000 --> 00:46:37,000
Some species that live in them

949
00:56:47,000 --> 00:55:49,000
will be under threat.

950
00:55:49,000 --> 01:01:51,000
And it's not just the non-human.

951
01:01:51,000 --> 00:54:15,000
We as a species will not be immune either.

952
00:54:15,000 --> 00:47:09,000
How can we possibly know 
what the future holds.

953
00:47:09,000 --> 00:49:12,000
Scientists don't pretend that they 
can predict specific changes to

954
00:49:32,000 --> 00:58:14,000
the climate with absolute certainty.

955
00:58:14,000 --> 00:55:15,000
But they can do

956
01:03:15,000 --> 00:56:27,000
his calculate the likelihood

957
01:00:47,000 --> 00:54:08,000
that they will occur.

958
01:01:14,000 --> 00:54:48,000
It's here at the Met Office's 
Hadley Centre in Exeter

959
01:00:28,000 --> 01:01:11,000
that we can't find the answer 
to some of the big questions.

960
00:55:33,000 --> 00:49:56,000
This super computer can perform 10 billion

961
00:55:56,000 --> 00:56:48,000
calculations per second

962
00:52:59,000 --> 01:00:59,000
each one

963
00:48:50,000 --> 00:47:54,000
contributing to a model that scientists 
like Peter Cox can use to

964
00:47:54,000 --> 00:51:35,000
protect our future climber.

965
00:53:18,000 --> 00:56:38,000
Climate

966
01:00:08,000 --> 00:56:49,000
models that essentially

967
00:54:00,000 --> 01:01:31,000
come out of weather forecasting models

968
00:54:12,000 --> 01:03:04,000
they run for much longer periods 
around own for hundreds of years

969
00:47:25,000 --> 01:00:15,000
rather than days

970
00:51:16,000 --> 00:51:59,000
but they contain older complex they 
contain clouds they contain

971
00:59:29,000 --> 00:59:21,000
rainfall patterns they contain winds

972
00:57:32,000 --> 00:56:55,000
and Clark models have to contain 
slower components like how the

973
00:59:45,000 --> 00:57:38,000
vegetation on the soil respond 
to changing how the oceans

974
01:02:08,000 --> 00:50:19,000
change.

975
00:54:50,000 --> 01:03:20,000
The model

976
00:50:31,000 --> 00:58:54,000
is like a virtual world a 
sort of flight simulator.

977
00:49:15,000 --> 01:03:47,000
Where everything from the melting 
ice in the Arctic to the

978
00:49:08,000 --> 01:02:59,000
formation of clouds in the atmosphere

979
00:51:10,000 --> 01:01:41,000
and the temperatures of the oceans

980
00:49:32,000 --> 01:04:15,000
are represented by solemnly leap,

981
01:04:15,000 --> 01:00:37,000
it can give us the probability

982
00:48:58,000 --> 01:04:29,000
that future events may happen.

983
01:01:32,000 --> 01:04:03,000
For instance,

984
01:04:03,000 --> 00:48:07,000
one of the chances of are having 
another major heatwave

985
00:56:47,000 --> 01:00:09,000
like the one of summer 2003

986
00:48:30,000 --> 01:04:51,000
. And

987
01:04:51,000 --> 00:52:33,000
as the planet warms up

988
01:01:03,000 --> 00:57:04,000
can we expect

989
01:01:24,000 --> 00:51:26,000
heatwaves more often.

990
00:55:00,000 --> 00:56:13,000
It's impossible to put any particular 
climatic or weather event

991
01:01:23,000 --> 00:57:15,000
down to climate change alone.

992
00:57:15,000 --> 00:57:18,000
But what you can do is say that climate 
change affects the chance

993
00:57:18,000 --> 00:56:49,000
of an event occurring

994
00:49:10,000 --> 00:55:13,000
and though it to the very extreme 
2003 summer we've suffered in

995
00:55:13,000 --> 00:52:15,000
Europe.

996
00:52:15,000 --> 00:50:17,000
He killed many people 
in France for example

997
00:57:37,000 --> 00:55:58,000
is a case in point.

998
00:55:58,000 --> 00:57:59,000
That's something that is a,

999
00:57:59,000 --> 00:59:20,000
a rare event now

1000
00:49:51,000 --> 00:59:43,000
is a one in 200 year type of event,

1001
00:59:43,000 --> 00:57:44,000
but that

1002
00:50:35,000 --> 01:02:37,000
is twice as likely as it was before 
we started to click change the

1003
01:02:37,000 --> 00:53:18,000
climate

1004
01:02:58,000 --> 01:04:31,000
and by 20-40 because of 
future climate change,

1005
01:04:31,000 --> 00:55:53,000
it will become a one in 2 year event

1006
01:04:23,000 --> 01:04:15,000
almost the norm by 20-80

1007
00:55:06,000 --> 00:58:17,000
will consider that call you.

1008
00:54:11,000 --> 00:58:54,000
One place where the Hadley model 
is predicting increasing

1009
01:01:14,000 --> 00:54:55,000
temperatures

1010
00:54:56,000 --> 00:52:47,000
is the next year

1011
00:56:47,000 --> 00:49:39,000
province in northern China.

1012
01:01:04,000 --> 00:53:26,000
Not good news for a land

1013
00:57:46,000 --> 01:04:57,000
where the desert is expanding.

1014
01:01:53,000 --> 00:56:15,000
Over the last 20 years,

1015
00:56:15,000 --> 00:59:17,000
there's been a marked decline in Maine.

1016
01:03:08,000 --> 01:01:01,000
Powerful winds have driven 
the thin soil into dues

1017
00:52:22,000 --> 00:54:04,000
smothering fields and villages.

1018
01:00:57,000 --> 01:02:48,000
In soup will drink

1019
00:52:39,000 --> 00:57:02,000
many villages have deserted 
their homes for the cities.

1020
01:02:39,000 --> 00:59:52,000
Those who are left behind like one lane

1021
00:53:03,000 --> 01:04:05,000
must endure a daily battle 
with the encroaching

1022
00:56:16,000 --> 01:00:36,000
dealings.

1023
00:54:38,000 --> 00:56:29,000
Yeah,

1024
00:56:29,000 --> 01:05:21,000
there wasn't so much sand here before.

1025
01:05:21,000 --> 00:52:02,000
Okay.

1026
00:52:02,000 --> 00:52:33,000
Now the wind is blowing.

1027
00:52:33,000 --> 00:57:14,000
More and more sensitive and.

1028
00:54:16,000 --> 01:00:37,000
So what do you know she also.

1029
01:00:37,000 --> 00:53:39,000
I remember when I was a child.

1030
00:53:39,000 --> 00:55:29,000
The

1031
01:01:29,000 --> 01:06:11,000
environment was really good.

1032
01:06:11,000 --> 00:51:23,000
And in 1973

1033
01:04:13,000 --> 00:56:54,000
went dry

1034
01:06:54,000 --> 01:06:55,000
the grass struck growing

1035
00:55:56,000 --> 01:06:56,000
but dust storms

1036
01:01:07,000 --> 01:01:58,000
the sand covered everything

1037
00:51:59,000 --> 00:51:51,000
and began to affect our lives in every way

1038
00:58:21,000 --> 01:05:41,000
Chi white.

1039
00:56:39,000 --> 01:04:09,000
If you go,

1040
01:04:09,000 --> 00:58:52,000
if you go you know and I get home 
if I don't brush I sand away

1041
01:01:02,000 --> 01:01:03,000
account gets into my house.

1042
01:04:46,000 --> 00:56:47,000
Then if you,

1043
00:56:47,000 --> 01:01:09,000
if there is takes a lot of time 
so it affects my work.

1044
01:02:57,000 --> 00:55:58,000
But they require

1045
01:02:18,000 --> 00:52:31,000
a lot of people have left 
the village already.

1046
00:52:31,000 --> 01:06:21,000
There was also sold

1047
00:57:52,000 --> 00:52:05,000
securities would you might they 
want to improve their lives.

1048
00:52:05,000 --> 00:58:45,000
So you know

1049
01:02:35,000 --> 01:00:28,000
moved to a better place with water 
and much better conditions

1050
00:52:59,000 --> 00:54:19,000
you

1051
00:57:39,000 --> 00:59:09,000
not

1052
01:02:39,000 --> 01:06:39,000
Georgia.

1053
01:03:07,000 --> 01:07:07,000
But the

1054
00:54:58,000 --> 00:57:38,000
group.

1055
00:51:29,000 --> 01:03:39,000
Those villages

1056
01:07:49,000 --> 01:03:11,000
that aren't swamped by sand

1057
00:53:32,000 --> 01:06:43,000
are suffering from severe drought

1058
01:01:44,000 --> 00:56:15,000
this village

1059
01:03:05,000 --> 01:06:05,000
ego

1060
00:58:46,000 --> 00:55:38,000
has not had a harvest for 3 years.

1061
01:06:13,000 --> 01:08:04,000
Professor Lin that

1062
00:57:25,000 --> 00:57:07,000
is working for the Chinese government

1063
00:53:58,000 --> 00:54:01,000
trying to discover how badly affected 
the local people are.

1064
01:08:06,000 --> 00:58:07,000
You know,

1065
00:58:07,000 --> 01:07:08,000
until that can you remember when you were

1066
00:54:29,000 --> 01:01:09,000
younger.

1067
01:01:09,000 --> 01:07:19,000
You know what.

1068
01:07:19,000 --> 00:59:41,000
At the same situation to do

1069
01:07:21,000 --> 01:04:34,000
and when I was a child who it was 
also sometimes very trying

1070
01:08:34,000 --> 00:59:25,000
IVF.

1071
00:59:25,000 --> 01:01:56,000
But it's become more serious.

1072
01:01:56,000 --> 01:00:57,000
In recent years.

1073
00:52:40,000 --> 00:56:51,000
So you know it's not on the radar

1074
00:57:12,000 --> 00:58:53,000
for troops being on recently

1075
00:54:14,000 --> 01:02:15,000
from the harvest was very bad

1076
00:54:26,000 --> 01:06:06,000
why was that

1077
01:01:37,000 --> 00:54:08,000
there's been a

1078
00:59:48,000 --> 00:54:19,000
rifle.

1079
00:54:19,000 --> 01:06:00,000
There's been no rain for 3 years

1080
00:53:11,000 --> 01:04:41,000
called White out

1081
00:54:22,000 --> 01:04:23,000
of work well by,

1082
01:04:23,000 --> 00:56:16,000
we can only depend on the food 
given by the government

1083
01:07:46,000 --> 01:08:57,000
and without crops.

1084
01:08:57,000 --> 01:05:38,000
We have no income

1085
00:57:29,000 --> 01:00:20,000
we can't buy anything

1086
01:08:50,000 --> 00:58:02,000
and we have no money to spend.

1087
00:56:24,000 --> 01:00:05,000
When the winds pick up

1088
01:06:25,000 --> 01:06:26,000
the dry soil

1089
00:53:27,000 --> 01:03:38,000
completely create a standstill.

1090
00:59:00,000 --> 00:58:53,000
Such storms are already afflicting 
cities like Beijing

1091
00:55:04,000 --> 01:03:54,000
if the dying

1092
01:07:44,000 --> 00:56:57,000
continues this will only get worse.

1093
01:08:50,000 --> 01:04:03,000
The bleak realities of climate change

1094
01:09:03,000 --> 01:02:25,000
are being felt all over the world.

1095
01:03:38,000 --> 00:54:39,000
And yet

1096
01:01:19,000 --> 00:59:43,000
despite so much evidence some people 
refused to believe that human

1097
00:59:43,000 --> 00:53:34,000
activity

1098
00:57:44,000 --> 00:59:36,000
is the cause of the changes we're seeing

1099
01:09:06,000 --> 01:07:17,000
the climate models

1100
00:54:28,000 --> 00:56:59,000
at the Hadley Centre,

1101
00:56:59,000 --> 01:08:00,000
believe that they have put.

1102
01:09:13,000 --> 01:00:34,000
They sat

1103
01:06:54,000 --> 00:55:27,000
both natural climate variations

1104
00:59:37,000 --> 01:03:10,000
and our carbon dioxide emissions 
into their model

1105
00:54:11,000 --> 01:01:14,000
to see which best explains the 
changes in temperature.

1106
01:01:14,000 --> 00:55:27,000
Over the last 120 years.

1107
01:08:28,000 --> 00:58:50,000
The key question of course

1108
00:55:41,000 --> 00:59:55,000
is how can we distinguish between 
variations due to natural causes

1109
00:58:16,000 --> 00:56:28,000
and those variations of the climate

1110
01:06:18,000 --> 01:05:02,000
that are induced by human activity.

1111
01:05:02,000 --> 00:55:33,000
And

1112
01:01:33,000 --> 01:03:14,000
the key thing

1113
01:07:14,000 --> 01:10:04,000
that

1114
00:59:25,000 --> 01:04:16,000
convinced me it anyway

1115
01:10:06,000 --> 00:58:48,000
was a graph like

1116
01:04:58,000 --> 01:00:30,000
this one that we marked out on the floor

1117
01:07:50,000 --> 00:55:02,000
that have been prepared from

1118
01:00:32,000 --> 01:01:13,000
climate scientists

1119
01:04:43,000 --> 01:09:13,000
like

1120
00:56:54,000 --> 00:56:55,000
Professor Peter Cox

1121
01:00:25,000 --> 01:05:17,000
now explain to us the significance

1122
01:08:57,000 --> 01:01:18,000
of this squad.

1123
01:10:38,000 --> 00:58:49,000
Okay.

1124
00:58:49,000 --> 00:58:31,000
What we're gonna do is to 
take a walk through time

1125
01:03:01,000 --> 01:05:22,000
and the first thing to note,

1126
01:05:22,000 --> 01:06:05,000
as we walk through its a bit the 
climate is naturally variable.

1127
01:06:05,000 --> 01:09:46,000
It's a spiky based

1128
00:59:07,000 --> 01:06:19,000
occasionally there's a downward trend 
that's associated a volcano

1129
01:06:19,000 --> 00:56:12,000
going off the coast of system 
down because of the dust,

1130
00:56:12,000 --> 01:05:02,000
it throws up

1131
01:08:52,000 --> 01:04:03,000
the general it just

1132
01:09:23,000 --> 01:05:34,000
isolates around

1133
00:54:35,000 --> 00:55:16,000
and then we get to a period

1134
01:03:16,000 --> 01:02:57,000
around about 1910

1135
01:08:07,000 --> 01:00:09,000
where you can start to see an upward trend

1136
00:57:20,000 --> 01:00:52,000
a warming of the climate 
and global warming,

1137
01:00:52,000 --> 01:03:53,000
if you like,

1138
01:03:53,000 --> 00:58:54,000
and the issue is

1139
01:03:24,000 --> 00:57:55,000
what caused that

1140
01:07:25,000 --> 00:55:46,000
was that

1141
00:59:06,000 --> 01:04:17,000
humans are was that natural.

1142
01:04:17,000 --> 01:10:59,000
So what we do to try and work that 
one hours to take a climate

1143
00:56:10,000 --> 01:06:42,000
model and to put in the various factors,

1144
01:06:42,000 --> 01:02:03,000
what we can say with its

1145
01:05:43,000 --> 00:56:15,000
blinkered here is a car model

1146
01:04:25,000 --> 01:02:57,000
that includes just these natural factors.

1147
01:02:57,000 --> 00:56:09,000
So this is when volcanoes go off

1148
01:03:59,000 --> 00:55:11,000
and the output from the sun

1149
01:02:51,000 --> 01:00:32,000
and you can see that the

1150
01:05:32,000 --> 01:08:53,000
curve can reproduce

1151
00:56:44,000 --> 01:11:05,000
recently well this mid-century warming so

1152
00:57:56,000 --> 00:54:57,000
up to this point,

1153
00:54:57,000 --> 00:55:18,000
you could reasonably argue

1154
01:05:08,000 --> 01:11:01,000
climate variation can be explained 
by natural factors,

1155
01:11:01,000 --> 01:02:43,000
but as we move on,

1156
01:02:43,000 --> 00:56:55,000
we can see that's no longer true.

1157
00:56:55,000 --> 00:57:08,000
If you get to the latter part of 
20th century from about 1970

1158
00:59:48,000 --> 01:05:28,000
onwards.

1159
01:05:28,000 --> 01:10:08,000
Here

1160
01:00:09,000 --> 00:59:50,000
you can see the red curve.

1161
00:59:50,000 --> 01:03:01,000
He observed temperatures

1162
01:07:01,000 --> 00:57:12,000
in the green

1163
01:01:52,000 --> 01:06:24,000
really begin to diverge.

1164
01:06:24,000 --> 01:07:57,000
And the question again is what 
caused this recent woman.

1165
01:07:57,000 --> 01:01:38,000
So we run the model,

1166
01:01:38,000 --> 01:02:21,000
again we include human factors particularly 
include greenhouse

1167
01:02:21,000 --> 01:07:51,000
effect

1168
00:56:32,000 --> 01:01:02,000
from

1169
00:59:33,000 --> 00:58:25,000
mostly from carbon dioxide 
that comes to fossil

1170
01:00:56,000 --> 00:59:18,000
and then we get this yellow 
card and we can see

1171
00:56:49,000 --> 01:11:29,000
as well as reproducing.

1172
01:11:29,000 --> 01:05:50,000
The mid-century

1173
00:58:31,000 --> 01:03:31,000
warming

1174
00:56:02,000 --> 00:57:33,000
we get this recent

1175
01:07:43,000 --> 01:00:15,000
rather rapid warming reproduced

1176
01:11:05,000 --> 01:11:06,000
and that tells us 2 things,

1177
01:11:06,000 --> 01:08:37,000
one is that the model

1178
01:00:48,000 --> 01:08:20,000
looks realistic looks like the real 
world and the second thing,

1179
01:08:20,000 --> 01:06:51,000
the model tells us

1180
01:10:41,000 --> 01:11:43,000
but this recent morning 
is due to human beings.

1181
01:01:15,000 --> 00:55:47,000
So there you have it.

1182
00:55:47,000 --> 00:59:18,000
There seems little doubt

1183
01:03:58,000 --> 01:04:39,000
that this recent

1184
01:01:00,000 --> 01:08:50,000
rises

1185
01:03:01,000 --> 00:58:23,000
the steep rise in temperature

1186
01:09:13,000 --> 01:06:45,000
is due to human activity.

1187
01:00:17,000 --> 00:56:59,000
If you look at the green line of now.

1188
00:57:49,000 --> 01:05:30,000
True variability.

1189
01:05:30,000 --> 00:59:41,000
It's clear

1190
01:05:11,000 --> 01:07:53,000
that without the action of human beings,

1191
01:07:53,000 --> 00:56:46,000
they would have been far 
less temperature change

1192
01:00:36,000 --> 01:03:07,000
since the 19-7.

1193
01:07:05,000 --> 00:58:28,000
We are all involved in this,

1194
00:58:28,000 --> 00:56:31,000
our whole way of life is structured 
around the Burmese

1195
01:01:01,000 --> 01:02:42,000
of fossil fuels.

1196
01:09:08,000 --> 01:07:09,000
I find it sobering

1197
01:12:59,000 --> 01:02:40,000
to think

1198
01:06:30,000 --> 01:09:53,000
that while I've been traveling 
the world trying to record

1199
00:57:04,000 --> 01:06:47,000
the complexity and beauty of our planet.

1200
01:06:47,000 --> 01:00:10,000
The night to have been making 
my own contribution

1201
01:06:20,000 --> 01:03:41,000
to global warming

1202
01:10:43,000 --> 01:00:07,000
as I recognized when I presented 
life on Earth.

1203
01:00:07,000 --> 01:12:38,000
All those years ago.

1204
01:12:38,000 --> 00:58:32,000
We are a flexible and innovative species.

1205
01:06:22,000 --> 01:12:05,000
And we have the capacity to adapt 
and modify our behavior

1206
01:09:46,000 --> 00:58:37,000
now

1207
01:03:37,000 --> 01:06:59,000
we most certainly have to do so,

1208
01:06:59,000 --> 00:58:13,000
if we are to deal with climate change.

1209
00:58:13,000 --> 01:06:24,000
It's the biggest challenge

1210
01:13:34,000 --> 00:59:46,000
we have yet faced.

1211
01:13:08,000 --> 01:02:19,000
This

1212
01:08:09,000 --> 01:05:30,000
sea wall

1213
01:01:21,000 --> 01:12:11,000
was built

1214
01:02:32,000 --> 00:57:33,000
to keep out

1215
01:09:03,000 --> 01:00:04,000
what he

1216
01:03:34,000 --> 01:13:26,000
recognized it was a force of nature

1217
01:00:37,000 --> 01:08:07,000
something

1218
00:57:18,000 --> 01:08:08,000
beyond our.

1219
00:58:31,000 --> 01:08:12,000
We ourselves have become

1220
01:11:52,000 --> 01:12:13,000
a force of nature.