WEBVTT

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We need to,

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they will give you.

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This

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is our planet.

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It contains an astonishing variety

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of landscapes

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and climates.

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Since life began

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around 4,000

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million years ago,

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it has gone through

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extraordinary changes and its climate

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and in the space that their on it.

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But no,

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it seems that our planet 
is being transformed

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not by natural events

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the by the actions of.

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One species

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mankind.

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You know I belong to the most

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they spared and dominant 
species and I more

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or less.

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We live on 27 years ago I presented

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life on Earth.

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A series of traces

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the evolution of life

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from its very beginnings.

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I set out to find them film

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representative species

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of the whole animal kingdom

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in all it's marvelous 
and wonderful for us.

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In the final program

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I dealt with the arrival of human beings.

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Still a recent event in the 
history of our planet.

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There is no scientific 
evidence whatsoever.

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The suppose indeed that

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man will stay on earth 
should be any longer

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than that

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of the dinosaurs,

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but although

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denying a special place in the world,

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maybe

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becoming a modest.

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The fact remains that man has 
an unprecedented control

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over the world

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and everything in it.

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And so

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whether he likes it or not.

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What happens next.

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It is very largely

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up to him.

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Up to us.

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Indeed,

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at the time I spoke those words.

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I had no idea that we have been the

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might have unleashed forces

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that in the

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hotel in the climate of fear.

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Good.

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The destruction of towns and cities

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in the southern United States

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be linked

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to the collapse of glasses

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in green.

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If

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going people

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but is the stuff floating around

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if out there.

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Might drought

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in the Amazon

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that killed thousands of fish

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be connected to the intensity 
of forest fires

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in Australia.

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And are these events related

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to one of Europe's hottest ever

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farmers.

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Which led to the death of 27,000 people.

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In every part of the world.

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New climatic extremes are 
now being the court.

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Our weather

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is in turmoil.

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During the last 50 years

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I've been lucky enough to 
spend my time traveling

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around the world

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looking at its wonders

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and its spenders

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during a time of course,

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I've seen many changes

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some good

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many bad

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but it's only in the last decade

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that I've come

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to think about the question

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as to whether or not

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what I or anybody else has been doing

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could have contributed to the change

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in the climate

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of the planet.

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It is undoubtedly taking place.

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In recent years,

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scientists have been collaborating

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on one of the most urgent and ambitious 
endeavors in our history.

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They're trying to understand the unprecedented 
changes in our time

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. And they're linking those changes

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to the rising temperatures 
that they're measuring

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had thousands of weather stations 
around the world.

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So,

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how much

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have global temperatures

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well

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by just over

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nought-point 6 of one degree Celsius.

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Since 1900

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how can such a seemingly small rise

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create so much havoc

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with the planet's climate.

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Well,

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that figure

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nought-point 6 degrees

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is only an average

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while some places have cooled a little

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some

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like the Arctic

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has warmed

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by up to 3 degrees.

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The frozen surface of the sea 
creates a highly specialized

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environment.

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And an extraordinary range of animals

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have evolved to live both 
above and below the ice.

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But the Arctic is now melting so fast

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that the whole intricate web of wildlife

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is under 3.

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And no species is more at risk

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than the animals at the 
top of the food chain,

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the polar bears.

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The turn of the year,

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that is when females give birth to

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raise their cut.

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By this time

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mothers will not have eaten 
for many months,

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and yet they now have 
extra mouths to feed.

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Their main prey are seals

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but they can only hunt

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before the ice melts,

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but it does that

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they must come ashore

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with all the reserves only 
to raise their cubs.

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And on land.

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There are no

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to hunt.

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Now

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because the ice is melting 
earlier each year

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mothers are going hungry

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and the less able to provide 
for their Cup.

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In Hudson's Bay

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Dr.

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Nick to London

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sets out each spring

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to track down the polar

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bears

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and check on their health.

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They been there.

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I've been working on that all of 
us here in the Churchill area

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since the early 1980s over 
the last 25 years

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and we're looking at the population

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ecology of polar bears in relation 
to tie not of change

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is population is the most

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studied population anywhere in the world.

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By tracking the Bears with such regularity

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Miquelon

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and his team

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have discovered that their 
numbers have declined

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by nearly a quarter

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since he first started stuck.

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First he needs to find the best.

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He then

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tranquilized system so that he 
can check their body weight

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to assess their health.

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The team has to work quickly to make 
their checks on their family

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before the mother wakes up.

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24 and a half pounds

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for Cobb one

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fun

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on larger bears

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we take the weight and their length 
and weak calculate what we

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call a body-body condition index.

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It's essentially the weight of 
the bear divided by its length

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Square

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and it gives us a means to compare bears

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between years over years

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what condition there and when the 
come ashore and we found that

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over the past 25

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years or so low that the condition 
of these bears us declining.

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Cobb 2 straight line leg zero 6-9.

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Here we've got a female 
with a trip letter.

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It's a very rare sight to find triplets.

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In the fall time

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one of the Cubs is

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a runt of the litter and it's 
not likely to survive.

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20 years ago.

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It wasn't all that uncommon 
to find triplets.

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In the fall.

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About 5% of the bears.

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We caught more females with 
cubs had triplets.

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We're seeing triplets born in the spring,

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but we're not

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one or more of those cubs is not 
making it through the fall.

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We're seeing reductions in Cup survival,

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things of that nature,

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all related to climb out of form.

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The ice is now melting

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3 weeks earlier

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each year.

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That means that there is 3 weeks 
less feeding time for pregnant

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mother.

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Once they come ashore in the sea ice melts

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the bears are forced to fast for 
anywhere from 4 months for most

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parents up to 8 months for a female such

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this

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here.

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Who would have come ashore last summer

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and it's not hard to see all 
meal since last July.

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If the current warming trend continues

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the future

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looks bleak

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for polar bears.

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It's not just that sea level.

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Is melting at Sutton alarming rate.

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The global temperature rise is also 
being felt much higher up.

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Mountain glasses

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all over the planet

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also now.

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The mountain ranges of Patagonia

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rundown

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towards a sudden tip of South America.

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This is the,

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in the northern

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Patagonian Ice Field

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it starts almost 2.5 thousand 
meters above sea level.

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This remote part of Patagonia

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is one of the coldest places on 
earth outside the poll nobody.

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JC allergist Dr. Stephen Harmison

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has been working in locations 
like the meth

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for 20 years

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he's been studying how they've 
changed over that time.

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The Patagonian Ice Field,

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the most dynamic ice fields on Earth.

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To understand climate change 
in the southern hemisphere.

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We need to go to places like this.

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He gives a very good record of climate 
change over the whole range

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of time to go.

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The ground I'm standing on

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that last year,

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the net glass.

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It was here in about the 1870s 
and by about 19 the 1930s

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it will be treated to this

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shoreline the lake shoreline

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and since then,

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since 1930s of courses

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retreated another

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2.5 to 3 kilometers perhaps 2 miles

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back up this valley.

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We were hearing Martin 88

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is this the whole night was completely 
covered with icebergs.

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All.

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Some fake MySpace

00:27:35.000 --> 00:21:07.000
we hardly get our boats in the ice front

00:28:27.000 --> 00:19:20.000
and yet that's will go on that landscape 
is completely changed now

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. Russia's

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give us a very

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visual record of climate change 
and and the they should be no

00:28:06.000 --> 00:29:28.000
doubt the climate change is happening.

00:29:28.000 --> 00:18:31.000
If we look at what glasses and 
doing all around the world,

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not just these ones on the north 
Patagonian Ice Field but glasses

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everywhere.

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They're all in recession pretty well

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and and that gives us a very visual 
record what exactly is going

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on in most one.

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The rate of that class Immelt

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is now accelerating.

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In southern Greenland.

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The amount of ice flowing into the sea

00:29:35.000 --> 00:22:18.000
has doubled in the last 10 years.

00:28:10.000 --> 00:17:01.000
This

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is slowly but steadily

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causing sea levels to rise.

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8,000 miles away.

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The inhabitants of the 
tiny Pacific islands

00:26:18.000 --> 00:21:59.000
of Tuvalu

00:27:29.000 --> 00:18:33.000
are already facing the realities 
of an invading sea.

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As temperatures rise so 
do those of the sea,

00:29:37.000 --> 00:29:59.000
causing oceans to expand

00:21:00.000 --> 00:15:51.000
and that

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coupled with the dresser melt

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means that sea levels will 
rise even higher.

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Earlier this year

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tides rose to their highest 
level ever known

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flooding the homes of the islanders.

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They have been troubled by this problem

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for the last few decades,

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but according to

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Diana semi

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it's getting progressively worse.

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Most of the people now experiencing 
this high tide is much higher

00:29:04.000 --> 00:16:35.000
than

00:23:15.000 --> 00:25:35.000
it

00:29:05.000 --> 00:16:26.000
hasn't

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won and.

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If next year is going to happen 
like this and much higher than

00:20:46.000 --> 00:28:36.000
this year

00:18:17.000 --> 00:22:07.000
then

00:28:57.000 --> 00:29:49.000
I don't think there's any 
future for him to.

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Through Mario Silva

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is now 2 values

00:31:50.000 --> 00:19:52.000
disaster coordinator.

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The

00:28:16.000 --> 00:27:57.000
prediction for tomorrow.

00:27:57.000 --> 00:26:58.000
The highest,

00:26:58.000 --> 00:19:59.000
but now

00:31:49.000 --> 00:31:21.000
looking at this time.

00:31:21.000 --> 00:22:12.000
Boats

00:28:12.000 --> 00:19:13.000
he flooded.

00:19:14.000 --> 00:25:04.000
And so,

00:25:04.000 --> 00:20:15.000
so it's them

00:17:46.000 --> 00:26:47.000
all their properties is 
they have been cowed

00:30:57.000 --> 00:19:38.000
tour

00:23:49.000 --> 00:33:00.000
guide binning in all those would be

00:24:31.000 --> 00:27:42.000
damaged by this.

00:27:42.000 --> 00:19:13.000
See what I.

00:28:18.000 --> 00:20:49.000
You can see that

00:24:19.000 --> 00:22:50.000
our rubbish everywhere

00:17:21.000 --> 00:25:22.000
and you're you seeing that

00:29:52.000 --> 00:33:03.000
the kids swimming

00:27:44.000 --> 00:18:05.000
and those

00:28:45.000 --> 00:18:27.000
waste area,

00:18:27.000 --> 00:23:07.000
I think

00:27:47.000 --> 00:32:27.000
a big

00:22:28.000 --> 00:23:09.000
health problem for kids

00:29:09.000 --> 00:24:40.000
and especially his

00:29:41.000 --> 00:18:23.000
people thing these houses and.

00:27:38.000 --> 00:21:49.000
Very worried

00:28:51.000 --> 00:18:02.000
flood

00:29:43.000 --> 00:22:04.000
they have

00:28:15.000 --> 00:29:45.000
at

00:18:26.000 --> 00:23:46.000
door

00:20:37.000 --> 00:20:08.000
climbing outside

00:29:48.000 --> 00:24:49.000
inside,

00:24:49.000 --> 00:17:31.000
but the flow this company here.

00:30:43.000 --> 00:22:34.000
Yes.

00:22:34.000 --> 00:29:04.000
All my

00:18:05.000 --> 00:22:55.000
really.

00:30:25.000 --> 00:18:26.000
PC

00:29:16.000 --> 00:31:07.000
fear well you here

00:27:18.000 --> 00:31:08.000
only

00:18:09.000 --> 00:21:20.000
here and at times,

00:21:20.000 --> 00:32:02.000
calling them but now this year as they

00:19:03.000 --> 00:24:53.000
really

00:31:23.000 --> 00:23:14.000
high time

00:32:14.000 --> 00:27:16.000
inside the house.

00:27:16.000 --> 00:29:27.000
This is the first time

00:19:38.000 --> 00:31:18.000
I think to

00:33:09.000 --> 00:19:52.000
to move out because and freight.

00:26:14.000 --> 00:33:44.000
I don't

00:21:45.000 --> 00:22:16.000
know placed move.

00:29:29.000 --> 00:25:13.000
But on the islands where the highest 
point is less than 5 meters

00:25:13.000 --> 00:28:54.000
above sea level.

00:28:54.000 --> 00:22:17.000
There is nowhere else to go.

00:22:17.000 --> 00:26:28.000
There are already plans

00:30:38.000 --> 00:18:20.000
for some of the population

00:23:10.000 --> 00:22:11.000
to be evacuated

00:26:11.000 --> 00:22:32.000
to New Zealand.

00:22:27.000 --> 00:26:37.000
But

00:30:17.000 --> 00:29:08.000
warming seas

00:33:48.000 --> 00:31:19.000
don't only mean

00:18:50.000 --> 00:27:01.000
rising seas.

00:27:01.000 --> 00:20:53.000
They have other implications,

00:20:53.000 --> 00:25:53.000
too.

00:20:12.000 --> 00:18:34.000
In August 2005

00:29:24.000 --> 00:25:58.000
Hurricane Katrina struck the 
coastline of Louisiana,

00:25:58.000 --> 00:19:59.000
Mississippi.

00:31:12.000 --> 00:24:06.000
Wasn't the high sea temperatures 
that many Katrina so intense.

00:26:40.000 --> 00:34:41.000
A typical hurricane,

00:34:41.000 --> 00:30:33.000
an atmospheric disturbance over Africa

00:32:54.000 --> 00:31:16.000
but it's here in the Gulf of Mexico

00:19:47.000 --> 00:21:59.000
that they grow to their 
full destructive power.

00:20:50.000 --> 00:33:21.000
How you can expert Greg Holland

00:21:22.000 --> 00:24:05.000
has been investigating what 
fueled Katrina's force.

00:28:15.000 --> 00:29:08.000
The process requires that the oceans 
be warmer than about 26

00:30:08.000 --> 00:26:00.000
degrees Celsius.

00:26:00.000 --> 00:33:40.000
The tropical

00:22:21.000 --> 00:26:02.000
to get the hurricane started and

00:30:02.000 --> 00:33:32.000
Jordanian

00:23:23.000 --> 00:23:25.000
from the surface high up 
into the atmosphere

00:20:36.000 --> 00:20:27.000
and what this means

00:25:07.000 --> 00:28:48.000
the ocean heat energy

00:32:28.000 --> 00:28:42.000
is used to fuel the development 
of the immensely powerful winds

00:24:23.000 --> 00:20:15.000
and it is so powerful,

00:20:15.000 --> 00:20:58.000
he could run the entire electric 
grid of the United States for

00:20:58.000 --> 00:31:58.000
several weeks.

00:22:54.000 --> 00:35:45.000
Really destructive winds 
are in the region.

00:35:45.000 --> 00:31:07.000
Just outside the eye of the hurricane

00:27:28.000 --> 00:29:21.000
and this is how strong they shred 
the surface of the ocean into a

00:29:21.000 --> 00:36:12.000
morass of sea and spray

00:27:43.000 --> 00:25:34.000
to become so think

00:33:44.000 --> 00:22:57.000
that the Mitchell becomes impossible 
to tell a difference between

00:24:27.000 --> 00:20:08.000
air and water.

00:26:10.000 --> 00:27:12.000
And the one the tropical oceans,

00:27:12.000 --> 00:24:04.000
the more destructive the 
hurricane can out.

00:26:49.000 --> 00:35:22.000
When Harry can Katrina breached 
the levees of New Orleans

00:26:33.000 --> 00:32:06.000
sea temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico 
and the Atlantic were the

00:32:06.000 --> 00:21:48.000
highest ever recorded.

00:35:12.000 --> 00:29:04.000
In the United States.

00:29:04.000 --> 00:30:47.000
The intensity and sheer destructiveness 
of the Heineken

00:36:07.000 --> 00:26:29.000
became the turning point

00:31:49.000 --> 00:25:51.000
in the debate about global warming.

00:35:01.000 --> 00:35:12.000
Although scientists

00:22:23.000 --> 00:28:56.000
will not say that one particular 
had can is caused by climate

00:30:36.000 --> 00:27:27.000
change.

00:27:27.000 --> 00:31:30.000
Many are now making the connection 
between global warming

00:37:20.000 --> 00:33:54.000
rising sea temperatures and the 
increasing strength of Vatican.

00:35:41.000 --> 00:28:34.000
2005 it was the worst season

00:33:24.000 --> 00:30:35.000
ever recorded.

00:33:49.000 --> 00:36:20.000
And Greg Holland

00:25:01.000 --> 00:33:32.000
is one of those who believes

00:21:13.000 --> 00:37:34.000
that worse is yet to come.

00:35:17.000 --> 00:32:41.000
As you can see there's a massive 
rebuilding program underway,

00:32:41.000 --> 00:31:33.000
but unfortunately this 
stretch of coast song

00:21:34.000 --> 00:21:36.000
will certainly be revisited by hurricanes,

00:21:36.000 --> 00:33:26.000
like a trainer

00:30:47.000 --> 00:30:09.000
and because of global climate change

00:37:39.000 --> 00:28:01.000
we going to be more intense

00:23:02.000 --> 00:35:12.000
more destructive

00:28:03.000 --> 00:31:24.000
and possibly more frequent.

00:31:18.000 --> 00:33:49.000
It's a grim warning

00:31:40.000 --> 00:32:33.000
but is global warming of the 
changes we're now seeing

00:22:14.000 --> 00:27:24.000
really

00:32:04.000 --> 00:32:15.000
a new phenomenon

00:37:35.000 --> 00:21:57.000
in the Earth's history.

00:30:33.000 --> 00:31:14.000
These days,

00:31:14.000 --> 00:30:56.000
when we talk of climate change,

00:30:56.000 --> 00:23:27.000
we tend

00:28:47.000 --> 00:28:08.000
to mean changes

00:33:28.000 --> 00:22:01.000
that we ourselves have brought about,

00:22:01.000 --> 00:36:22.000
but of course the climate of the Earth

00:25:23.000 --> 00:25:45.000
has always been changing,

00:25:45.000 --> 00:33:06.000
either because of some great,

00:33:06.000 --> 00:31:47.000
cosmic event

00:36:37.000 --> 00:29:09.000
like a collision with a meteorite

00:37:49.000 --> 00:33:11.000
or else because of some more slower

00:22:52.000 --> 00:26:43.000
gradual change

00:34:23.000 --> 00:37:35.000
in the amount of energy 
that the Earth receives

00:24:26.000 --> 00:35:56.000
from the sun.

00:29:08.000 --> 00:30:28.000
The

00:34:08.000 --> 00:37:01.000
reborn rearguard.

00:25:38.000 --> 00:38:28.000
It's the sun

00:27:59.000 --> 00:37:01.000
that provides our planet 
with warmth and light.

00:37:43.000 --> 00:24:44.000
Why

00:36:14.000 --> 00:38:34.000
when

00:34:16.000 --> 00:24:57.000
you know.

00:37:10.000 --> 00:23:42.000
Not the amount amenities

00:31:32.000 --> 00:27:04.000
that the Earth receives from the sun

00:32:44.000 --> 00:37:54.000
there.

00:31:29.000 --> 00:34:59.000
You know.

00:26:50.000 --> 00:24:54.000
In cycles of tense and often hundreds 
of thousands of years

00:30:24.000 --> 00:38:44.000
the earth

00:26:25.000 --> 00:22:58.000
tilts and changes it orbits around the sun

00:31:08.000 --> 00:32:19.000
and with each cycle

00:37:39.000 --> 00:23:22.000
the patterns of light 
energy playing on the

00:33:32.000 --> 00:26:43.000
changes.

00:34:54.000 --> 00:23:36.000
These natural changes

00:28:16.000 --> 00:25:27.000
have contributed

00:29:37.000 --> 00:36:29.000
to dramatic shift in my client

00:27:41.000 --> 00:25:53.000
in the time of the dinosaurs.

00:25:53.000 --> 00:37:14.000
It was much warmer than it is now.

00:36:35.000 --> 00:27:27.000
He would have found dinosaurs

00:33:47.000 --> 00:23:29.000
roaming in forests,

00:23:29.000 --> 00:37:40.000
close to the north and south poles.

00:31:23.000 --> 00:26:35.000
70 million years after that

00:33:05.000 --> 00:30:37.000
much of our Paris was freezing.

00:30:37.000 --> 00:32:00.000
It's become locked in a 
cycle of success if ice

00:35:40.000 --> 00:25:41.000
ages.

00:30:34.000 --> 00:33:57.000
If the city of New York had existed 160.

00:36:17.000 --> 00:36:18.000
Thousand years ago

00:26:39.000 --> 00:33:49.000
it would have.

00:33:59.000 --> 00:34:42.000
Been on the edge of an ice pack 
some 2 kilometers high

00:27:13.000 --> 00:36:16.000
and yet global temperatures were 
only 4 degrees lower than they

00:36:16.000 --> 00:28:47.000
are today.

00:32:30.000 --> 00:29:02.000
30 thousand years later,

00:29:02.000 --> 00:26:53.000
the same city

00:30:33.000 --> 00:36:05.000
would have been under 5 meters of water

00:33:26.000 --> 00:33:19.000
yet global temperatures were 
less than 2 degrees warmer.

00:30:12.000 --> 00:34:04.000
This see-sawing in the Earth's climate

00:40:24.000 --> 00:38:16.000
was driven by natural forces

00:25:27.000 --> 00:30:08.000
long before mankind

00:33:48.000 --> 00:38:48.000
appear.

00:38:25.000 --> 00:35:46.000
But there's another

00:25:27.000 --> 00:33:19.000
powerful influence on our climate.

00:33:19.000 --> 00:40:00.000
If we have to take into account

00:40:11.000 --> 00:34:32.000
among the

00:38:42.000 --> 00:34:45.000
many glasses that make 
up the air we breathe,

00:34:45.000 --> 00:29:16.000
there is one

00:32:56.000 --> 00:25:58.000
that is particularly important

00:30:38.000 --> 00:30:09.000
carbon dioxide

00:25:10.000 --> 00:29:40.000
it

00:33:20.000 --> 00:24:52.000
traps the sun's energy

00:28:42.000 --> 00:33:43.000
and so keeps a panic.

00:26:27.000 --> 00:36:09.000
Greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide

00:26:50.000 --> 00:40:01.000
act as a blanket around the earth

00:29:32.000 --> 00:32:15.000
prevent in the sun's energy from 
reflecting back into space.

00:36:45.000 --> 00:28:06.000
Left.

00:41:10.000 --> 00:37:54.000
It's called the greenhouse effect 
and it prevented the planet from

00:37:54.000 --> 00:28:55.000
freezing

00:32:25.000 --> 00:34:36.000
since the earth began

00:32:57.000 --> 00:39:47.000
without

00:30:48.000 --> 00:25:01.000
the global temperature would be minus 19

00:25:02.000 --> 00:28:32.000
subsidies.

00:32:48.000 --> 00:28:49.000
On the face fit

00:32:49.000 --> 00:36:51.000
carbon dioxide seems to be a good thing

00:29:12.000 --> 00:39:55.000
it stops our planet from freezing 
and so sustains life on Earth

00:29:26.000 --> 00:27:57.000
and without it,

00:27:57.000 --> 00:33:30.000
no plant could grow because they 
need carbon to build their

00:33:30.000 --> 00:38:30.000
tissues.

00:40:26.000 --> 00:29:19.000
Leaves absorb the gas from the atmosphere

00:36:29.000 --> 00:32:50.000
through their pores.

00:39:07.000 --> 00:38:00.000
They then break down on the 
carbon dioxide molecules

00:31:52.000 --> 00:32:13.000
released the oxygen

00:39:23.000 --> 00:40:24.000
and retain the Cup.

00:39:20.000 --> 00:28:13.000
Over hundreds of millions of years

00:34:23.000 --> 00:34:04.000
the great forests

00:29:15.000 --> 00:41:56.000
so much carbon dioxide.

00:41:56.000 --> 00:42:17.000
Out of the atmosphere

00:34:28.000 --> 00:40:28.000
that they

00:27:19.000 --> 00:28:42.000
reduce the greenhouse effect 
and cool the planet down.

00:32:33.000 --> 00:38:24.000
When the trees died.

00:38:24.000 --> 00:33:15.000
They were buried

00:40:35.000 --> 00:34:36.000
and overtime

00:41:06.000 --> 00:36:18.000
crushed and compressed

00:40:38.000 --> 00:31:10.000
with the carbon still within

00:27:42.000 --> 00:39:53.000
in the ages that followed.

00:39:53.000 --> 00:36:15.000
These layers are slowly buried

00:39:45.000 --> 00:28:47.000
beneath the earth's surface.

00:30:00.000 --> 00:31:13.000
At this open cast coal mine in China,

00:31:13.000 --> 00:34:25.000
you can descend for 500m

00:38:55.000 --> 00:36:27.000
through layer upon layer of rock

00:42:27.000 --> 00:34:50.000
representing 10s of millions of years.

00:38:35.000 --> 00:29:47.000
Right at the bottom,

00:29:47.000 --> 00:34:07.000
a layer

00:39:27.000 --> 00:38:19.000
of what was once would and leaves

00:29:10.000 --> 00:42:40.000
and is now

00:32:11.000 --> 00:41:01.000
coal and.

00:42:06.000 --> 00:33:48.000
It's an ideal place

00:38:48.000 --> 00:35:40.000
for Professor Bob Spicer

00:41:00.000 --> 00:43:01.000
to studies appliances

00:32:32.000 --> 00:37:53.000
influence the climate.

00:37:53.000 --> 00:39:04.000
All that time ago.

00:38:49.000 --> 00:34:10.000
These leaves

00:38:00.000 --> 00:43:31.000
blast saw the light of day.

00:43:31.000 --> 00:33:33.000
Some 50 million years ago

00:28:34.000 --> 00:36:24.000
when they were

00:41:44.000 --> 00:37:55.000
on the trees

00:37:36.000 --> 00:29:20.000
taking in carbon dioxide and 
using the energy of the sun

00:39:20.000 --> 00:41:01.000
the fix that carbon

00:28:42.000 --> 00:37:32.000
into

00:28:53.000 --> 00:37:16.000
their tissues and leaves 
and twigs and the like.

00:37:16.000 --> 00:35:07.000
Now the original

00:36:50.000 --> 00:42:30.000
had a

00:35:41.000 --> 00:40:33.000
cooling effect on the atmosphere 
because they were

00:31:14.000 --> 00:39:25.000
taking carbon dioxide out

00:39:06.000 --> 00:32:07.000
and where we

00:38:17.000 --> 00:42:57.000
Burnley

00:36:29.000 --> 00:30:10.000
the call

00:34:30.000 --> 00:43:01.000
on the carbon.

00:43:01.000 --> 00:31:33.000
That's nice one,

00:31:33.000 --> 00:28:45.000
and put it back into the atmosphere.

00:28:45.000 --> 00:36:15.000
Today

00:42:35.000 --> 00:36:18.000
we have the opposite effect 
we warm up the atmosphere.

00:36:34.000 --> 00:43:24.000
Now

00:31:25.000 --> 00:40:47.000
all the coal is being carried 
up to the surface

00:29:28.000 --> 00:30:30.000
to be burned in the power station,

00:30:30.000 --> 00:38:23.000
which provides electricity for hundreds 
of thousands of people.

00:31:08.000 --> 00:34:19.000
Oil and gas

00:42:19.000 --> 00:41:30.000
Nicol also

00:31:21.000 --> 00:29:02.000
fossil fuel.

00:42:56.000 --> 00:38:08.000
When such fuels averting

00:31:19.000 --> 00:36:11.000
the carbon re combines with oxygen

00:28:32.000 --> 00:43:03.000
and is released back into the atmosphere

00:32:54.000 --> 00:36:35.000
as carbon dioxide.

00:36:03.000 --> 00:31:28.000
The carbon dioxide spreads evenly 
through the Earth's atmosphere.

00:31:28.000 --> 00:40:38.000
Sickening.

00:40:38.000 --> 00:30:10.000
The greenhouse blanket the

00:37:20.000 --> 00:29:01.000
the world

00:35:32.000 --> 00:32:24.000
and further warming the planet.

00:43:30.000 --> 00:29:04.000
That blanket extends for 
miles above the earth's

00:36:55.000 --> 00:38:27.000
as you climb up away from the Earth the.

00:43:37.000 --> 00:32:19.000
Is become thinner.

00:32:19.000 --> 00:42:59.000
The temperature.

00:42:59.000 --> 00:40:40.000
As a result,

00:40:40.000 --> 00:33:01.000
becomes colder.

00:34:22.000 --> 00:45:35.000
It was while I was making the living 
planet in the mid 1980s

00:35:26.000 --> 00:37:09.000
the tide began to appreciate the 
crucial role of the atmosphere

00:41:19.000 --> 00:45:20.000
in shaping our climate.

00:33:33.000 --> 00:40:03.000
We are

00:45:03.000 --> 00:29:55.000
very close to the top

00:29:36.000 --> 00:33:56.000
of

00:32:47.000 --> 00:45:07.000
our environment

00:39:59.000 --> 00:36:50.000
for all the

00:31:31.000 --> 00:39:51.000
goes on

00:32:12.000 --> 00:41:42.000
within the

00:41:23.000 --> 00:29:24.000
5

00:43:14.000 --> 00:31:06.000
brief Miles this

00:44:26.000 --> 00:37:07.000
envelope

00:36:18.000 --> 00:40:19.000
of atmosphere that wrapped

00:44:29.000 --> 00:44:20.000
around the world,

00:44:20.000 --> 00:46:01.000
it's here,

00:46:01.000 --> 00:37:32.000
but the weather

00:32:33.000 --> 00:41:23.000
is manufactured.

00:38:55.000 --> 00:31:17.000
When I spoke those words

00:34:57.000 --> 00:36:40.000
scientists were already detecting 
crucial changes in the

00:36:40.000 --> 00:32:42.000
composition of the atmosphere.

00:32:42.000 --> 00:33:23.000
In particular,

00:33:23.000 --> 00:36:54.000
changes in the level

00:43:24.000 --> 00:29:56.000
of carbon dioxide.

00:30:30.000 --> 00:46:00.000
All over the planet

00:33:11.000 --> 00:43:04.000
they were recording rising levels 
of that particular gas in there

00:43:04.000 --> 00:39:51.000
. The first regular

00:39:51.000 --> 00:37:23.000
measurements were started 48

00:42:03.000 --> 00:40:14.000
years ago,

00:40:14.000 --> 00:37:37.000
from the top of the extinct 
volcano of money on lower

00:45:27.000 --> 00:41:28.000
in Hawaii.

00:31:21.000 --> 00:36:24.000
And it is the rate at which the 
carbon dioxide blanket is

00:36:24.000 --> 00:41:14.000
thickening

00:33:35.000 --> 00:46:46.000
that is causing so much concern.

00:39:34.000 --> 00:39:46.000
When I was a boy in the 1930s

00:31:17.000 --> 00:37:50.000
. The carbon dioxide back 
it was still below 300

00:41:40.000 --> 00:32:51.000
parts

00:37:01.000 --> 00:46:01.000
per million.

00:30:56.000 --> 00:39:36.000
This year

00:45:16.000 --> 00:38:39.000
the thickness reached 382

00:36:10.000 --> 00:35:41.000
the highest figure

00:40:21.000 --> 00:33:33.000
for hundreds of thousands.

00:43:20.000 --> 00:32:04.000
But how can we possibly know 
that carbon dioxide levels

00:36:14.000 --> 00:34:25.000
are higher now

00:38:05.000 --> 00:32:27.000
than they were thousands of years ago.

00:43:18.000 --> 00:36:30.000
In Patagonia is ice fields

00:43:40.000 --> 00:39:03.000
huge gaps open up in the summer months,

00:39:03.000 --> 00:33:46.000
giving scientists a chance to investigate

00:37:16.000 --> 00:31:18.000
far below the glasses.

00:37:51.000 --> 00:35:12.000
Stephen Harrison

00:42:32.000 --> 00:44:16.000
is taking the opportunity to descend 
deep into a pair of us in the

00:44:16.000 --> 00:37:42.000
. It's risky.

00:43:02.000 --> 00:32:53.000
You,

00:32:53.000 --> 00:37:33.000
you know.

00:39:23.000 --> 00:45:25.000
The glasses a melting so fast.

00:45:25.000 --> 00:41:18.000
The potentially invaluable 
records of the past

00:48:08.000 --> 00:37:39.000
artists.

00:45:10.000 --> 00:32:41.000
Yes.

00:32:41.000 --> 00:45:32.000
Ice cap in which his glasses flow from

00:36:23.000 --> 00:48:15.000
is melting more quickly probably 
than any other comparable ice

00:32:16.000 --> 00:48:26.000
mass on Earth.

00:48:26.000 --> 00:32:58.000
You can see them out of water,

00:32:58.000 --> 00:32:09.000
which is around us.

00:32:39.000 --> 00:41:09.000
Stephen

00:45:09.000 --> 00:41:02.000
has spent the last 20 years studying

00:44:42.000 --> 00:39:55.000
Latinos and past climates,

00:39:55.000 --> 00:44:28.000
he knows that ice can preserve 
valuable evidence.

00:47:17.000 --> 00:40:31.000
Carbon dioxide is a as an important 
driver of climate change.

00:40:31.000 --> 00:48:21.000
In other words,

00:48:21.000 --> 00:43:33.000
is that important factor in in

00:47:53.000 --> 00:42:35.000
in changing the global climate.

00:42:35.000 --> 00:37:58.000
You have to see how come not citing 
changed with the pattern

00:35:49.000 --> 00:35:21.000
periods and warm period 
throughout her history.

00:47:52.000 --> 00:47:34.000
You can see the ice here 
is absolutely full

00:35:05.000 --> 00:36:06.000
of of of bubbles

00:39:46.000 --> 00:36:17.000
from the bubbles informed

00:41:17.000 --> 00:34:08.000
when the ice

00:42:08.000 --> 00:48:59.000
was formed.

00:48:59.000 --> 00:36:21.000
And of course the bubbles contain

00:43:01.000 --> 00:47:13.000
atmosphere oxygen and carbon dioxide

00:45:15.000 --> 00:42:18.000
if we want to understand the 
the role of carbon dioxide

00:46:18.000 --> 00:43:31.000
as a sort of as a thermal 
blanket over the earth.

00:43:31.000 --> 00:44:14.000
We need to know about how come 
a dark side has changed the

00:44:14.000 --> 00:39:46.000
concentrations of change in the atmosphere

00:44:06.000 --> 00:39:48.000
over hundreds of thousands of years.

00:39:48.000 --> 00:38:30.000
An analysis of bubbles such as these

00:42:30.000 --> 00:39:03.000
in places like Antarctica and Greenland 
gives us that that that's

00:39:03.000 --> 00:34:54.000
fantastic record.

00:44:49.000 --> 00:50:13.000
That record is now also preserved 
thousands of miles away.

00:50:13.000 --> 00:38:34.000
Not

00:43:44.000 --> 00:48:36.000
in the ice fields as originally 
contained it

00:37:27.000 --> 00:38:58.000
but in Denver,

00:38:58.000 --> 00:49:58.000
Colorado.

00:47:30.000 --> 00:40:34.000
In this store room of the United 
States national ice core

00:40:34.000 --> 00:35:55.000
laboratory

00:42:25.000 --> 00:46:38.000
hundreds of thousands of years' 
worth of ice core records

00:35:39.000 --> 00:48:59.000
are maintained

00:36:20.000 --> 00:37:42.000
at minus 36 degrees.

00:47:50.000 --> 00:35:15.000
These ice cores have been extracted 
from as much as 3 kilometers

00:40:05.000 --> 00:44:37.000
beneath the polar ice caps.

00:44:37.000 --> 00:44:59.000
I mean for Professor marks a rare as

00:48:29.000 --> 00:49:52.000
each one provides a valuable 
source of information

00:38:13.000 --> 00:50:24.000
about a particular moment in the past.

00:38:49.000 --> 00:43:59.000
Well,

00:43:59.000 --> 00:48:19.000
this

00:37:50.000 --> 00:46:10.000
particular

00:49:40.000 --> 00:44:13.000
chunk of ice was about 16,000 years old

00:49:13.000 --> 00:42:15.000
come from the Greenland ice sheet.

00:44:57.000 --> 00:45:09.000
What we see here are layers of fossils

00:48:39.000 --> 00:38:10.000
snow

00:49:00.000 --> 00:44:52.000
every year on the top of Greenland,

00:44:52.000 --> 00:35:34.000
there's an accumulation of snow

00:43:44.000 --> 00:50:44.000
and

00:37:45.000 --> 00:39:16.000
this is a good compacted

00:43:16.000 --> 00:51:08.000
you're through years layer 
after layer of snow

00:40:19.000 --> 00:40:31.000
eventually before these layers of ice

00:46:01.000 --> 00:43:53.000
and it's within these layers of ice

00:48:43.000 --> 00:48:36.000
that we can tell all kinds of things 
about deep that the Earth's

00:48:36.000 --> 00:40:47.000
past

00:49:27.000 --> 00:44:59.000
what we find today is at the carbonate

00:49:49.000 --> 00:36:13.000
oxide concentrations in the atmosphere 
are higher than anything

00:38:43.000 --> 00:38:06.000
we've seen in the past 600,000 years.

00:38:06.000 --> 00:36:49.000
It's telling us that human activities 
are having a strong him.

00:38:49.000 --> 00:37:20.000
Back on the claim it's,

00:37:20.000 --> 00:40:00.000
it's.

00:50:35.000 --> 00:45:18.000
It if we measure this in parts 
per million of carbon

00:49:18.000 --> 00:42:20.000
oxides in the atmosphere,

00:42:20.000 --> 00:42:43.000
what we call the pre-industrial 
output before he wins were

00:43:53.000 --> 00:39:04.000
starting to have a team

00:37:45.000 --> 00:40:47.000
with around 27280

00:44:18.000 --> 00:51:28.000
Premier League.

00:49:42.000 --> 00:39:24.000
What we've seen now.

00:39:24.000 --> 00:41:47.000
The most recent record today are 
telling us that it's up to about

00:41:47.000 --> 00:39:58.000
380

00:45:29.000 --> 00:50:59.000
for the.

00:52:41.000 --> 00:43:25.000
So you can see that today if levels 
are far beyond anything that

00:43:25.000 --> 00:45:45.000
we.

00:49:21.000 --> 00:46:53.000
If you talk to be 5 years ago

00:37:54.000 --> 00:37:45.000
I would have been

00:41:35.000 --> 00:41:36.000
kind of a fence sitter

00:46:06.000 --> 00:46:37.000
on this whole idea

00:52:37.000 --> 00:39:18.000
of

00:42:58.000 --> 00:48:20.000
greenhouse gases involved 
in climate change

00:37:41.000 --> 00:36:52.000
no war.

00:36:52.000 --> 00:42:23.000
The changes that we've seen

00:48:53.000 --> 00:41:57.000
seem to be much too strong much 
too radical to be just simply

00:41:57.000 --> 00:48:19.000
explained by natural climate cycles.

00:52:43.000 --> 00:48:06.000
What we're seeing now is 
the impact of humans

00:52:56.000 --> 00:41:09.000
humans are starting to change 
the climate itself.

00:53:42.000 --> 00:52:53.000
Those changes

00:41:34.000 --> 00:45:55.000
could now be occurring.

00:45:55.000 --> 00:46:46.000
Even in places

00:50:16.000 --> 00:53:07.000
which are absorbing

00:40:28.000 --> 00:51:59.000
huge amounts of cotton dioxide.

00:46:42.000 --> 00:38:53.000
The Emerson

00:43:33.000 --> 00:38:56.000
is often referred to as 
the lungs of the world

00:48:36.000 --> 00:40:41.000
for here plants taken vast volumes 
of carbon dioxide and give out

00:40:41.000 --> 00:49:21.000
oxygen

00:48:52.000 --> 00:38:36.000
to appreciate the immensity of the 
greenery where this gaseous

00:38:36.000 --> 00:50:37.000
exchange takes place.

00:50:37.000 --> 00:51:09.000
You have to get up into the branches,

00:51:09.000 --> 00:50:21.000
some 50m about the ground.

00:40:24.000 --> 00:43:24.000
I'm

00:47:24.000 --> 00:45:25.000
up in the canopy

00:52:45.000 --> 00:49:26.000
of the jungle.

00:49:26.000 --> 00:47:18.000
The tropical rainforest,

00:47:18.000 --> 00:52:18.000
here

00:40:59.000 --> 00:46:10.000
there is a greater bulk

00:53:30.000 --> 00:54:23.000
of life both animal and plant 
and the greater diversity too

00:46:24.000 --> 00:42:05.000
and can be found

00:46:45.000 --> 00:47:36.000
anywhere else at all

00:38:17.000 --> 00:44:58.000
and this huge proliferation

00:51:58.000 --> 00:50:50.000
comes from 2 main courses

00:42:01.000 --> 00:47:41.000
warmth

00:38:12.000 --> 00:49:42.000
and witness

00:41:43.000 --> 00:42:46.000
the wetness comes from the 
abundant Equatorial rains

00:49:46.000 --> 00:41:27.000
for warmth

00:48:47.000 --> 00:46:48.000
from the tropical sun

00:39:49.000 --> 00:53:49.000
and between them.

00:53:49.000 --> 00:54:01.000
Those 2 factors have created the jungle

00:45:02.000 --> 00:50:03.000
which stretches in a broken

00:38:34.000 --> 00:51:44.000
green band

00:41:05.000 --> 00:51:25.000
Wright round.

00:39:50.000 --> 00:38:21.000
20 years later

00:45:11.000 --> 00:45:03.000
and in spite of intensive logging

00:49:13.000 --> 00:54:35.000
vast areas of this phone is still survive.

00:40:26.000 --> 00:52:00.000
Bridgestone Youzhny.

00:54:01.000 --> 00:43:43.000
But scientists like

00:47:33.000 --> 00:51:23.000
down

00:55:03.000 --> 00:48:24.000
next had

00:43:15.000 --> 00:50:47.000
in covering an even more sinister threat

00:54:17.000 --> 00:53:18.000
to the health of the John.

00:53:58.000 --> 00:39:59.000
Go

00:44:49.000 --> 00:43:40.000
them deforestation

00:51:02.000 --> 00:51:23.000
he has discovered

00:39:04.000 --> 00:40:46.000
that many of the largest traders

00:45:16.000 --> 00:39:47.000
are dying.

00:52:29.000 --> 00:44:30.000
What I think

00:54:00.000 --> 00:44:04.000
is for me the most scary part about 
the future of the Amazon

00:47:35.000 --> 00:39:36.000
is drought

00:45:36.000 --> 00:40:49.000
because when a drought comes often 
with very little warning

00:51:19.000 --> 00:40:41.000
it affects not just

00:52:11.000 --> 00:53:42.000
one or 2%

00:45:13.000 --> 00:45:34.000
of the basin,

00:45:34.000 --> 00:49:55.000
it's an effect 30%

00:40:46.000 --> 00:48:46.000
for us

00:41:57.000 --> 00:43:10.000
in ways that we are just now learning 
can be quite devastating to

00:43:10.000 --> 00:52:30.000
the forest.

00:42:44.000 --> 00:49:35.000
In 2005

00:41:46.000 --> 00:40:50.000
the Amazon region suffered its 
worst drought in 60 years.

00:45:02.000 --> 00:48:33.000
The lack of rain,

00:48:33.000 --> 00:40:36.000
led to a catastrophic fall in river levels

00:49:56.000 --> 00:40:28.000
decimating the fish popular.

00:52:22.000 --> 00:44:34.000
6 months after the drought

00:52:44.000 --> 00:40:27.000
Dan never stat is finding that the trees

00:44:37.000 --> 00:51:38.000
have still not recovered.

00:45:59.000 --> 00:40:31.000
Right now we're measuring how much

00:50:21.000 --> 00:44:53.000
water stress the tree that

00:49:23.000 --> 00:54:03.000
this leaf

00:42:54.000 --> 00:55:35.000
growing on who was under when we cut it.

00:47:41.000 --> 00:52:43.000
Last year's drought caught 
assault by surprise

00:44:34.000 --> 00:50:24.000
they've had

00:53:54.000 --> 00:47:48.000
devastating effects and the people 
who live in the Amazon.

00:47:48.000 --> 00:44:20.000
We're just right now getting a handle on

00:49:40.000 --> 00:44:14.000
how many hundreds of thousands 
of square kilometers of forest

00:50:14.000 --> 00:44:17.000
were severely damaged by a drought killing

00:48:27.000 --> 00:54:48.000
enormous trees,

00:54:48.000 --> 00:43:11.000
which are the key organisms 
in these ecosystems

00:52:51.000 --> 00:43:23.000
could be the 2006

00:48:33.000 --> 00:42:17.000
is it your full of forest fire because 
of the drought of 2005.

00:51:30.000 --> 00:42:05.000
The drought was linked to the abnormally 
warm seas in the Atlantic

00:42:05.000 --> 00:50:58.000
, which disrupted the rainfall 
patterns in the forests.

00:41:40.000 --> 00:53:21.000
It's particularly worrisome because.

00:48:32.000 --> 00:48:25.000
It's the type of ocean heating and 
it seems to cause the drought

00:49:25.000 --> 00:42:37.000
in the Amazon last year that is

00:46:47.000 --> 00:54:28.000
exactly what is predicted,

00:54:28.000 --> 00:50:09.000
and their scenario

00:50:10.000 --> 00:42:21.000
hopeful who worry.

00:44:01.000 --> 00:49:21.000
Yes.

00:50:56.000 --> 00:47:17.000
But the Amazon

00:53:07.000 --> 00:47:10.000
is not the only rich ecosystem

00:51:00.000 --> 00:46:11.000
now at risk.

00:42:27.000 --> 00:49:20.000
The world's coral reefs and other 
marine equivalent of the

00:52:10.000 --> 00:54:33.000
rainforest teeming with countless 
different species.

00:53:08.000 --> 00:55:08.000
That

00:46:49.000 --> 00:50:09.000
you know.

00:55:39.000 --> 00:46:33.000
Warming sea temperatures are already 
putting the oceans and the

00:46:33.000 --> 00:45:24.000
life within them

00:49:04.000 --> 00:43:26.000
under increasing strain.

00:46:58.000 --> 00:43:02.000
The 2000 kilometer long Great 
Barrier Reef in Australia

00:53:22.000 --> 00:52:54.000
is one of the wonders of the world.

00:48:46.000 --> 00:51:58.000
Early in the life on Earth series

00:57:28.000 --> 00:52:30.000
I examined it for myself.

00:50:54.000 --> 00:57:04.000
The reason

00:47:45.000 --> 00:47:37.000
may look like some fantastic

00:52:57.000 --> 00:44:48.000
multicolored

00:48:28.000 --> 00:42:51.000
jungle of plants and flowers.

00:42:51.000 --> 00:55:21.000
But when you touch,

00:55:21.000 --> 00:52:32.000
one,

00:52:32.000 --> 00:45:44.000
it has a hard being incongruous

00:53:44.000 --> 00:45:15.000
crunch

00:52:15.000 --> 00:44:46.000
the stone.

00:44:10.000 --> 00:57:41.000
Then 27 years ago

00:50:42.000 --> 00:58:02.000
the reef

00:44:53.000 --> 00:53:06.000
seemed won a huge unblemished 
and healthy world of its own.

00:50:52.000 --> 00:55:34.000
I described the intimate relationship

00:48:25.000 --> 00:55:57.000
between the tiny animal coral polyps

00:43:48.000 --> 00:49:40.000
and the alchemy that shelter inside them.

00:53:20.000 --> 00:43:11.000
Lately.

00:43:51.000 --> 00:46:04.000
A relationship established hundreds 
of millions of years ago

00:54:44.000 --> 00:48:38.000
that eventually produced Greece 
so immense that they're visible

00:51:38.000 --> 00:49:49.000
from space.

00:52:20.000 --> 00:46:12.000
So it may well be the river

00:55:22.000 --> 00:54:54.000
passing astronaut came this way,

00:54:54.000 --> 00:49:15.000
several hundred

00:56:55.000 --> 00:52:47.000
million years ago,

00:52:47.000 --> 00:50:38.000
you might have noticed.

00:58:12.000 --> 00:58:14.000
But at the time I was making the series

00:48:45.000 --> 00:50:48.000
I was unaware of a new and 
disturbing phenomenon.

00:56:15.000 --> 00:51:56.000
Now,

00:51:56.000 --> 00:49:08.000
in early 2006

00:57:48.000 --> 00:59:00.000
the state of the car on the Barrier Reef

00:46:31.000 --> 00:45:44.000
is worrying marine biologist 
Ove Hoegh Guldberg.

01:00:07.000 --> 00:45:49.000
In recent years.

00:45:49.000 --> 00:52:30.000
He and other scientists

00:56:10.000 --> 00:53:03.000
have found that the reefs a far more 
sensitive to see temperatures

00:51:44.000 --> 00:53:15.000
than they had previously.

00:52:12.000 --> 00:59:42.000
This year

00:50:23.000 --> 00:44:46.000
has seen temperatures are abnormally high.

00:46:45.000 --> 00:54:26.000
Everywhere and up.

00:54:26.000 --> 00:58:36.000
Well,

00:58:36.000 --> 00:58:48.000
I can say it isn't blitz Carl's

00:46:09.000 --> 00:52:19.000
Carlson

00:58:19.000 --> 00:54:00.000
Adobe proudly

00:57:41.000 --> 01:00:01.000
Anelka

00:52:02.000 --> 00:54:42.000
existing

00:45:33.000 --> 00:48:14.000
a brilliant bike.

00:48:14.000 --> 00:55:45.000
This is the cost of the out,

00:55:45.000 --> 00:59:36.000
you have a lot of that this is

00:48:48.000 --> 00:47:59.000
all that's left of the

00:54:59.000 --> 00:46:30.000
absolutely

00:52:50.000 --> 00:48:21.000
reflect the skeletons

00:58:42.000 --> 00:47:44.000
okay I'm here,

00:47:44.000 --> 01:00:44.000
I just saved

00:47:46.000 --> 00:58:17.000
and later after they don't

00:48:58.000 --> 00:54:49.000
the time glitz golf

00:49:20.000 --> 00:58:11.000
and silicone struggling,

00:58:11.000 --> 00:52:15.000
but I think I said it really 
quite like this before.

00:52:15.000 --> 00:44:56.000
If you cut off.

00:59:49.000 --> 00:51:51.000
What is particularly unsettling

00:56:41.000 --> 00:51:02.000
scientist

00:56:12.000 --> 00:50:05.000
is that this reaching is 
becoming more frequent

00:53:26.000 --> 00:52:49.000
is sea temperatures remain 
high for too long.

00:52:49.000 --> 01:00:50.000
Then the out he won't return

00:51:01.000 --> 00:52:52.000
and the call may die

00:46:04.000 --> 00:54:34.000
Ove Hoegh

00:49:25.000 --> 00:47:06.000
is using approved

00:56:26.000 --> 00:45:38.000
to discover how stressed

00:49:18.000 --> 00:45:49.000
this Congress.

00:49:31.000 --> 00:55:22.000
I tells me that you know

00:50:53.000 --> 01:00:53.000
most of the

00:54:44.000 --> 00:56:54.000
Algeria,

00:56:54.000 --> 01:01:35.000
who left in these corals

00:53:46.000 --> 00:54:47.000
are severely damaged

01:00:47.000 --> 00:55:29.000
and I've been terrorized by combination

00:46:00.000 --> 00:45:51.000
of heat and likely.

00:59:48.000 --> 00:47:29.000
Away.

00:55:49.000 --> 00:48:11.000
When I come here and see this

00:55:02.000 --> 00:51:14.000
said it really stressed out rescue

00:46:06.000 --> 00:57:57.000
a former self getting really concerned

00:58:48.000 --> 01:01:09.000
it's another reminder

00:58:30.000 --> 00:53:03.000
that there are a huge changes on 
the way with climate change

00:47:44.000 --> 00:51:05.000
in the,

00:51:05.000 --> 00:47:57.000
this is the 3rd bleaching event

00:51:27.000 --> 01:00:19.000
in the last 90 years of the Great 
Barrier anything and everything

00:45:50.000 --> 00:50:00.000
they had

00:52:51.000 --> 00:56:01.000
and

00:49:02.000 --> 00:48:03.000
as predicted if

00:59:03.000 --> 01:01:24.000
they getting more frequent

00:51:55.000 --> 00:54:55.000
and

00:49:56.000 --> 00:49:07.000
and more severe head

00:55:58.000 --> 00:52:41.000
and I called customer funds 
that you rather frightening

00:57:21.000 --> 00:56:12.000
movement

00:52:23.000 --> 00:54:54.000
in the area.

00:58:46.000 --> 00:59:56.000
Of

00:50:49.000 --> 00:51:49.000
of.

00:51:30.000 --> 00:51:41.000
Devastating thought

00:49:52.000 --> 01:01:43.000
but if the warming continues.

01:01:43.000 --> 00:55:55.000
Some of our richest environment.

00:57:25.000 --> 00:46:37.000
Some species that live in them

00:56:47.000 --> 00:55:49.000
will be under threat.

00:55:49.000 --> 01:01:51.000
And it's not just the non-human.

01:01:51.000 --> 00:54:15.000
We as a species will not be immune either.

00:54:15.000 --> 00:47:09.000
How can we possibly know 
what the future holds.

00:47:09.000 --> 00:49:12.000
Scientists don't pretend that they 
can predict specific changes to

00:49:32.000 --> 00:58:14.000
the climate with absolute certainty.

00:58:14.000 --> 00:55:15.000
But they can do

01:03:15.000 --> 00:56:27.000
his calculate the likelihood

01:00:47.000 --> 00:54:08.000
that they will occur.

01:01:14.000 --> 00:54:48.000
It's here at the Met Office's 
Hadley Centre in Exeter

01:00:28.000 --> 01:01:11.000
that we can't find the answer 
to some of the big questions.

00:55:33.000 --> 00:49:56.000
This super computer can perform 10 billion

00:55:56.000 --> 00:56:48.000
calculations per second

00:52:59.000 --> 01:00:59.000
each one

00:48:50.000 --> 00:47:54.000
contributing to a model that scientists 
like Peter Cox can use to

00:47:54.000 --> 00:51:35.000
protect our future climber.

00:53:18.000 --> 00:56:38.000
Climate

01:00:08.000 --> 00:56:49.000
models that essentially

00:54:00.000 --> 01:01:31.000
come out of weather forecasting models

00:54:12.000 --> 01:03:04.000
they run for much longer periods 
around own for hundreds of years

00:47:25.000 --> 01:00:15.000
rather than days

00:51:16.000 --> 00:51:59.000
but they contain older complex they 
contain clouds they contain

00:59:29.000 --> 00:59:21.000
rainfall patterns they contain winds

00:57:32.000 --> 00:56:55.000
and Clark models have to contain 
slower components like how the

00:59:45.000 --> 00:57:38.000
vegetation on the soil respond 
to changing how the oceans

01:02:08.000 --> 00:50:19.000
change.

00:54:50.000 --> 01:03:20.000
The model

00:50:31.000 --> 00:58:54.000
is like a virtual world a 
sort of flight simulator.

00:49:15.000 --> 01:03:47.000
Where everything from the melting 
ice in the Arctic to the

00:49:08.000 --> 01:02:59.000
formation of clouds in the atmosphere

00:51:10.000 --> 01:01:41.000
and the temperatures of the oceans

00:49:32.000 --> 01:04:15.000
are represented by solemnly leap,

01:04:15.000 --> 01:00:37.000
it can give us the probability

00:48:58.000 --> 01:04:29.000
that future events may happen.

01:01:32.000 --> 01:04:03.000
For instance,

01:04:03.000 --> 00:48:07.000
one of the chances of are having 
another major heatwave

00:56:47.000 --> 01:00:09.000
like the one of summer 2003

00:48:30.000 --> 01:04:51.000
. And

01:04:51.000 --> 00:52:33.000
as the planet warms up

01:01:03.000 --> 00:57:04.000
can we expect

01:01:24.000 --> 00:51:26.000
heatwaves more often.

00:55:00.000 --> 00:56:13.000
It's impossible to put any particular 
climatic or weather event

01:01:23.000 --> 00:57:15.000
down to climate change alone.

00:57:15.000 --> 00:57:18.000
But what you can do is say that climate 
change affects the chance

00:57:18.000 --> 00:56:49.000
of an event occurring

00:49:10.000 --> 00:55:13.000
and though it to the very extreme 
2003 summer we've suffered in

00:55:13.000 --> 00:52:15.000
Europe.

00:52:15.000 --> 00:50:17.000
He killed many people 
in France for example

00:57:37.000 --> 00:55:58.000
is a case in point.

00:55:58.000 --> 00:57:59.000
That's something that is a,

00:57:59.000 --> 00:59:20.000
a rare event now

00:49:51.000 --> 00:59:43.000
is a one in 200 year type of event,

00:59:43.000 --> 00:57:44.000
but that

00:50:35.000 --> 01:02:37.000
is twice as likely as it was before 
we started to click change the

01:02:37.000 --> 00:53:18.000
climate

01:02:58.000 --> 01:04:31.000
and by 20-40 because of 
future climate change,

01:04:31.000 --> 00:55:53.000
it will become a one in 2 year event

01:04:23.000 --> 01:04:15.000
almost the norm by 20-80

00:55:06.000 --> 00:58:17.000
will consider that call you.

00:54:11.000 --> 00:58:54.000
One place where the Hadley model 
is predicting increasing

01:01:14.000 --> 00:54:55.000
temperatures

00:54:56.000 --> 00:52:47.000
is the next year

00:56:47.000 --> 00:49:39.000
province in northern China.

01:01:04.000 --> 00:53:26.000
Not good news for a land

00:57:46.000 --> 01:04:57.000
where the desert is expanding.

01:01:53.000 --> 00:56:15.000
Over the last 20 years,

00:56:15.000 --> 00:59:17.000
there's been a marked decline in Maine.

01:03:08.000 --> 01:01:01.000
Powerful winds have driven 
the thin soil into dues

00:52:22.000 --> 00:54:04.000
smothering fields and villages.

01:00:57.000 --> 01:02:48.000
In soup will drink

00:52:39.000 --> 00:57:02.000
many villages have deserted 
their homes for the cities.

01:02:39.000 --> 00:59:52.000
Those who are left behind like one lane

00:53:03.000 --> 01:04:05.000
must endure a daily battle 
with the encroaching

00:56:16.000 --> 01:00:36.000
dealings.

00:54:38.000 --> 00:56:29.000
Yeah,

00:56:29.000 --> 01:05:21.000
there wasn't so much sand here before.

01:05:21.000 --> 00:52:02.000
Okay.

00:52:02.000 --> 00:52:33.000
Now the wind is blowing.

00:52:33.000 --> 00:57:14.000
More and more sensitive and.

00:54:16.000 --> 01:00:37.000
So what do you know she also.

01:00:37.000 --> 00:53:39.000
I remember when I was a child.

00:53:39.000 --> 00:55:29.000
The

01:01:29.000 --> 01:06:11.000
environment was really good.

01:06:11.000 --> 00:51:23.000
And in 1973

01:04:13.000 --> 00:56:54.000
went dry

01:06:54.000 --> 01:06:55.000
the grass struck growing

00:55:56.000 --> 01:06:56.000
but dust storms

01:01:07.000 --> 01:01:58.000
the sand covered everything

00:51:59.000 --> 00:51:51.000
and began to affect our lives in every way

00:58:21.000 --> 01:05:41.000
Chi white.

00:56:39.000 --> 01:04:09.000
If you go,

01:04:09.000 --> 00:58:52.000
if you go you know and I get home 
if I don't brush I sand away

01:01:02.000 --> 01:01:03.000
account gets into my house.

01:04:46.000 --> 00:56:47.000
Then if you,

00:56:47.000 --> 01:01:09.000
if there is takes a lot of time 
so it affects my work.

01:02:57.000 --> 00:55:58.000
But they require

01:02:18.000 --> 00:52:31.000
a lot of people have left 
the village already.

00:52:31.000 --> 01:06:21.000
There was also sold

00:57:52.000 --> 00:52:05.000
securities would you might they 
want to improve their lives.

00:52:05.000 --> 00:58:45.000
So you know

01:02:35.000 --> 01:00:28.000
moved to a better place with water 
and much better conditions

00:52:59.000 --> 00:54:19.000
you

00:57:39.000 --> 00:59:09.000
not

01:02:39.000 --> 01:06:39.000
Georgia.

01:03:07.000 --> 01:07:07.000
But the

00:54:58.000 --> 00:57:38.000
group.

00:51:29.000 --> 01:03:39.000
Those villages

01:07:49.000 --> 01:03:11.000
that aren't swamped by sand

00:53:32.000 --> 01:06:43.000
are suffering from severe drought

01:01:44.000 --> 00:56:15.000
this village

01:03:05.000 --> 01:06:05.000
ego

00:58:46.000 --> 00:55:38.000
has not had a harvest for 3 years.

01:06:13.000 --> 01:08:04.000
Professor Lin that

00:57:25.000 --> 00:57:07.000
is working for the Chinese government

00:53:58.000 --> 00:54:01.000
trying to discover how badly affected 
the local people are.

01:08:06.000 --> 00:58:07.000
You know,

00:58:07.000 --> 01:07:08.000
until that can you remember when you were

00:54:29.000 --> 01:01:09.000
younger.

01:01:09.000 --> 01:07:19.000
You know what.

01:07:19.000 --> 00:59:41.000
At the same situation to do

01:07:21.000 --> 01:04:34.000
and when I was a child who it was 
also sometimes very trying

01:08:34.000 --> 00:59:25.000
IVF.

00:59:25.000 --> 01:01:56.000
But it's become more serious.

01:01:56.000 --> 01:00:57.000
In recent years.

00:52:40.000 --> 00:56:51.000
So you know it's not on the radar

00:57:12.000 --> 00:58:53.000
for troops being on recently

00:54:14.000 --> 01:02:15.000
from the harvest was very bad

00:54:26.000 --> 01:06:06.000
why was that

01:01:37.000 --> 00:54:08.000
there's been a

00:59:48.000 --> 00:54:19.000
rifle.

00:54:19.000 --> 01:06:00.000
There's been no rain for 3 years

00:53:11.000 --> 01:04:41.000
called White out

00:54:22.000 --> 01:04:23.000
of work well by,

01:04:23.000 --> 00:56:16.000
we can only depend on the food 
given by the government

01:07:46.000 --> 01:08:57.000
and without crops.

01:08:57.000 --> 01:05:38.000
We have no income

00:57:29.000 --> 01:00:20.000
we can't buy anything

01:08:50.000 --> 00:58:02.000
and we have no money to spend.

00:56:24.000 --> 01:00:05.000
When the winds pick up

01:06:25.000 --> 01:06:26.000
the dry soil

00:53:27.000 --> 01:03:38.000
completely create a standstill.

00:59:00.000 --> 00:58:53.000
Such storms are already afflicting 
cities like Beijing

00:55:04.000 --> 01:03:54.000
if the dying

01:07:44.000 --> 00:56:57.000
continues this will only get worse.

01:08:50.000 --> 01:04:03.000
The bleak realities of climate change

01:09:03.000 --> 01:02:25.000
are being felt all over the world.

01:03:38.000 --> 00:54:39.000
And yet

01:01:19.000 --> 00:59:43.000
despite so much evidence some people 
refused to believe that human

00:59:43.000 --> 00:53:34.000
activity

00:57:44.000 --> 00:59:36.000
is the cause of the changes we're seeing

01:09:06.000 --> 01:07:17.000
the climate models

00:54:28.000 --> 00:56:59.000
at the Hadley Centre,

00:56:59.000 --> 01:08:00.000
believe that they have put.

01:09:13.000 --> 01:00:34.000
They sat

01:06:54.000 --> 00:55:27.000
both natural climate variations

00:59:37.000 --> 01:03:10.000
and our carbon dioxide emissions 
into their model

00:54:11.000 --> 01:01:14.000
to see which best explains the 
changes in temperature.

01:01:14.000 --> 00:55:27.000
Over the last 120 years.

01:08:28.000 --> 00:58:50.000
The key question of course

00:55:41.000 --> 00:59:55.000
is how can we distinguish between 
variations due to natural causes

00:58:16.000 --> 00:56:28.000
and those variations of the climate

01:06:18.000 --> 01:05:02.000
that are induced by human activity.

01:05:02.000 --> 00:55:33.000
And

01:01:33.000 --> 01:03:14.000
the key thing

01:07:14.000 --> 01:10:04.000
that

00:59:25.000 --> 01:04:16.000
convinced me it anyway

01:10:06.000 --> 00:58:48.000
was a graph like

01:04:58.000 --> 01:00:30.000
this one that we marked out on the floor

01:07:50.000 --> 00:55:02.000
that have been prepared from

01:00:32.000 --> 01:01:13.000
climate scientists

01:04:43.000 --> 01:09:13.000
like

00:56:54.000 --> 00:56:55.000
Professor Peter Cox

01:00:25.000 --> 01:05:17.000
now explain to us the significance

01:08:57.000 --> 01:01:18.000
of this squad.

01:10:38.000 --> 00:58:49.000
Okay.

00:58:49.000 --> 00:58:31.000
What we're gonna do is to 
take a walk through time

01:03:01.000 --> 01:05:22.000
and the first thing to note,

01:05:22.000 --> 01:06:05.000
as we walk through its a bit the 
climate is naturally variable.

01:06:05.000 --> 01:09:46.000
It's a spiky based

00:59:07.000 --> 01:06:19.000
occasionally there's a downward trend 
that's associated a volcano

01:06:19.000 --> 00:56:12.000
going off the coast of system 
down because of the dust,

00:56:12.000 --> 01:05:02.000
it throws up

01:08:52.000 --> 01:04:03.000
the general it just

01:09:23.000 --> 01:05:34.000
isolates around

00:54:35.000 --> 00:55:16.000
and then we get to a period

01:03:16.000 --> 01:02:57.000
around about 1910

01:08:07.000 --> 01:00:09.000
where you can start to see an upward trend

00:57:20.000 --> 01:00:52.000
a warming of the climate 
and global warming,

01:00:52.000 --> 01:03:53.000
if you like,

01:03:53.000 --> 00:58:54.000
and the issue is

01:03:24.000 --> 00:57:55.000
what caused that

01:07:25.000 --> 00:55:46.000
was that

00:59:06.000 --> 01:04:17.000
humans are was that natural.

01:04:17.000 --> 01:10:59.000
So what we do to try and work that 
one hours to take a climate

00:56:10.000 --> 01:06:42.000
model and to put in the various factors,

01:06:42.000 --> 01:02:03.000
what we can say with its

01:05:43.000 --> 00:56:15.000
blinkered here is a car model

01:04:25.000 --> 01:02:57.000
that includes just these natural factors.

01:02:57.000 --> 00:56:09.000
So this is when volcanoes go off

01:03:59.000 --> 00:55:11.000
and the output from the sun

01:02:51.000 --> 01:00:32.000
and you can see that the

01:05:32.000 --> 01:08:53.000
curve can reproduce

00:56:44.000 --> 01:11:05.000
recently well this mid-century warming so

00:57:56.000 --> 00:54:57.000
up to this point,

00:54:57.000 --> 00:55:18.000
you could reasonably argue

01:05:08.000 --> 01:11:01.000
climate variation can be explained 
by natural factors,

01:11:01.000 --> 01:02:43.000
but as we move on,

01:02:43.000 --> 00:56:55.000
we can see that's no longer true.

00:56:55.000 --> 00:57:08.000
If you get to the latter part of 
20th century from about 1970

00:59:48.000 --> 01:05:28.000
onwards.

01:05:28.000 --> 01:10:08.000
Here

01:00:09.000 --> 00:59:50.000
you can see the red curve.

00:59:50.000 --> 01:03:01.000
He observed temperatures

01:07:01.000 --> 00:57:12.000
in the green

01:01:52.000 --> 01:06:24.000
really begin to diverge.

01:06:24.000 --> 01:07:57.000
And the question again is what 
caused this recent woman.

01:07:57.000 --> 01:01:38.000
So we run the model,

01:01:38.000 --> 01:02:21.000
again we include human factors particularly 
include greenhouse

01:02:21.000 --> 01:07:51.000
effect

00:56:32.000 --> 01:01:02.000
from

00:59:33.000 --> 00:58:25.000
mostly from carbon dioxide 
that comes to fossil

01:00:56.000 --> 00:59:18.000
and then we get this yellow 
card and we can see

00:56:49.000 --> 01:11:29.000
as well as reproducing.

01:11:29.000 --> 01:05:50.000
The mid-century

00:58:31.000 --> 01:03:31.000
warming

00:56:02.000 --> 00:57:33.000
we get this recent

01:07:43.000 --> 01:00:15.000
rather rapid warming reproduced

01:11:05.000 --> 01:11:06.000
and that tells us 2 things,

01:11:06.000 --> 01:08:37.000
one is that the model

01:00:48.000 --> 01:08:20.000
looks realistic looks like the real 
world and the second thing,

01:08:20.000 --> 01:06:51.000
the model tells us

01:10:41.000 --> 01:11:43.000
but this recent morning 
is due to human beings.

01:01:15.000 --> 00:55:47.000
So there you have it.

00:55:47.000 --> 00:59:18.000
There seems little doubt

01:03:58.000 --> 01:04:39.000
that this recent

01:01:00.000 --> 01:08:50.000
rises

01:03:01.000 --> 00:58:23.000
the steep rise in temperature

01:09:13.000 --> 01:06:45.000
is due to human activity.

01:00:17.000 --> 00:56:59.000
If you look at the green line of now.

00:57:49.000 --> 01:05:30.000
True variability.

01:05:30.000 --> 00:59:41.000
It's clear

01:05:11.000 --> 01:07:53.000
that without the action of human beings,

01:07:53.000 --> 00:56:46.000
they would have been far 
less temperature change

01:00:36.000 --> 01:03:07.000
since the 19-7.

01:07:05.000 --> 00:58:28.000
We are all involved in this,

00:58:28.000 --> 00:56:31.000
our whole way of life is structured 
around the Burmese

01:01:01.000 --> 01:02:42.000
of fossil fuels.

01:09:08.000 --> 01:07:09.000
I find it sobering

01:12:59.000 --> 01:02:40.000
to think

01:06:30.000 --> 01:09:53.000
that while I've been traveling 
the world trying to record

00:57:04.000 --> 01:06:47.000
the complexity and beauty of our planet.

01:06:47.000 --> 01:00:10.000
The night to have been making 
my own contribution

01:06:20.000 --> 01:03:41.000
to global warming

01:10:43.000 --> 01:00:07.000
as I recognized when I presented 
life on Earth.

01:00:07.000 --> 01:12:38.000
All those years ago.

01:12:38.000 --> 00:58:32.000
We are a flexible and innovative species.

01:06:22.000 --> 01:12:05.000
And we have the capacity to adapt 
and modify our behavior

01:09:46.000 --> 00:58:37.000
now

01:03:37.000 --> 01:06:59.000
we most certainly have to do so,

01:06:59.000 --> 00:58:13.000
if we are to deal with climate change.

00:58:13.000 --> 01:06:24.000
It's the biggest challenge

01:13:34.000 --> 00:59:46.000
we have yet faced.

01:13:08.000 --> 01:02:19.000
This

01:08:09.000 --> 01:05:30.000
sea wall

01:01:21.000 --> 01:12:11.000
was built

01:02:32.000 --> 00:57:33.000
to keep out

01:09:03.000 --> 01:00:04.000
what he

01:03:34.000 --> 01:13:26.000
recognized it was a force of nature

01:00:37.000 --> 01:08:07.000
something

00:57:18.000 --> 01:08:08.000
beyond our.

00:58:31.000 --> 01:08:12.000
We ourselves have become

01:11:52.000 --> 01:12:13.000
a force of nature.