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Have you heard the news?

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We're in a clean energy revolution.

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And where I live in Berkeley, California,

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it seems like every day I see a new roof[br]with new solar panels going up,

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electric car in the driveway.

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Germany sometimes gets[br]half its power from solar,

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and India is now committed[br]to building 10 times more solar

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than we have in California,

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by the year 2022.

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Even nuclear seems to be[br]making a comeback.

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Bill Gates is in China[br]working with engineers,

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there's 40 different companies[br]that are working together

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to try to race to build the first[br]reactor that runs on waste,

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that can't melt down

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and is cheaper than coal.

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And so you might start to ask:

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Is this whole global warming problem

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going to be a lot easier to solve[br]than anybody imagined?

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That was the question we wanted to know,

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so my colleagues and I decided[br]to take a deep dive into the data.

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We were a little skeptical of some parts

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of the clean energy revolution story,

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but what we found really surprised us.

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The first thing is that clean[br]energy has been increasing.

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This is electricity from clean energy[br]sources over the last 20 years.

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But when you look at[br]the percentage of global electricity

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from clean energy sources,

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it's actually been in decline[br]from 36 percent to 31 percent.

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And if you care about climate change,

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you've got to go in the opposite direction

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to 100 percent of our electricity[br]from clean energy sources,

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as quickly as possible.

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Now, you might wonder,

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"Come on, how much could five percentage[br]points of global electricity be?"

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Well, it turns out to be quite a bit.

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It's the equivalent of 60 nuclear plants

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the size of Diablo Canyon,[br]California's last nuclear plant,

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or 900 solar farms the size of Topaz,

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which is one of the biggest[br]solar farms in the world,

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and certainly our biggest in California.

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A big part of this is simply[br]that fossil fuels are increasing

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faster than clean energy.

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And that's understandable.

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There's just a lot of poor countries

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that are still using wood[br]and dung and charcoal

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as their main source of energy,

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and they need modern fuels.

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But there's something else going on,

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which is that one of those clean energy[br]sources in particular

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has actually been on the decline[br]in absolute terms,

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not just relatively.

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And that's nuclear.

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You can see its generation[br]has declined seven percent

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over the last 10 years.

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Now, solar and wind have been[br]making huge strides,

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so you hear a lot of talk[br]about how it doesn't really matter,

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because solar and wind[br]is going to make up the difference.

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But the data says something different.

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When you combine all the electricity[br]from solar and wind,

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you see it actually barely makes up[br]half of the decline from nuclear.

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Let's take a closer look[br]in the United States.

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Over the last couple of years --[br]really 2013, 2014 --

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we prematurely retired[br]four nuclear power plants.

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They were almost entirely[br]replaced with fossil fuels,

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and so the consequence[br]was that we wiped out

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almost as much clean energy[br]electricity that we get from solar.

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And it's not unique to us.

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People think of California[br]as a clean energy and climate leader,

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but when we looked at the data,

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what we found is that, in fact,

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California reduced emissions more slowly[br]than the national average,

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between 2000 and 2015.

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What about Germany?

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They're doing a lot of clean energy.

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But when you look at the data,

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German emissions have actually[br]been going up since 2009,

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and there's really not anybody[br]who's going to tell you

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that they're going to meet[br]their climate commitments in 2020.

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The reason isn't hard to understand.

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Solar and wind provide power[br]about 10 to 20 percent of the time,

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which means that when[br]the sun's not shining,

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the wind's not blowing,

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you still need power for your hospitals,

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your homes, your cities, your factories.

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And while batteries have made[br]some really cool improvements lately,

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the truth is, they're just never[br]going to be as efficient

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as the electrical grid.

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Every time you put electricity[br]into a battery and take it out,

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you lose about 20 to 40[br]percent of the power.

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That's why when, in California,

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we try to deal with all the solar[br]we've brought online --

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we now get about 10 percent[br]of electricity from solar --

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when the sun goes down,[br]and people come home from work

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and turn on their air conditioners[br]and their TV sets,

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and every other appliance in the house,

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we need a lot of natural gas backup.

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So what we've been doing

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is stuffing a lot of natural gas[br]into the side of a mountain.

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And that worked pretty well for a while,

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but then late last year,[br]it sprung a leak.

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This is Aliso Canyon.

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So much methane gas was released,

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it was the equivalent of putting[br]half a million cars on the road.

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It basically blew through all[br]of our climate commitments for the year.

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Well, what about India?

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Sometimes you have to go places[br]to really get the right data,

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so we traveled to India a few months ago.

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We met with all the top officials --[br]solar, nuclear, the rest --

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and what they told us is,

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"We're actually having[br]more serious problems

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than both Germany and California.

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We don't have backup;[br]we don't have all the natural gas.

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And that's just the start of it.

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Say we want to get[br]to 100 gigawatts by 2022.

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But last year we did just five,

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and the year before that, we did five."

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So, let's just take[br]a closer look at nuclear.

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The United Nations Intergovernmental[br]Panel on Climate Change

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has looked at the carbon content[br]of all these different fuels,

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and nuclear comes out really low --[br]it's actually lower even than solar.

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And nuclear obviously[br]provides a lot of power --

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24 hours a day, seven days a week.

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During a year, a single plant can provide[br]power 92 percent of the time.

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What's interesting is that[br]when you look at countries

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that have deployed different[br]kinds of clean energies,

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there's only a few that have done so

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at a pace consistent with dealing[br]with the climate crisis.

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So nuclear seems like[br]a pretty good option,

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but there's this big problem with it,

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which all of you, I'm sure, are aware of,

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which is that people really don't like it.

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There was a study, a survey done[br]of people around the world,

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not just in the United States or Europe,

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about a year and a half ago.

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And what they found

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is that nuclear is actually one[br]of the least popular forms of energy.

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Even oil is more popular than nuclear.

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And while nuclear kind of[br]edges out coal, the thing is,

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people don't really fear coal[br]in the same way they fear nuclear,

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which really operates on our unconscious.

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So what is it that we fear?

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There's really three things.

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There's the safety[br]of the plants themselves --

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the fears that they're going[br]to melt down and cause damage;

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there's the waste from them;

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and there's the association with weapons.

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And I think, understandably,

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engineers look at those concerns[br]and look for technological fixes.

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That's why Bill Gates is in China[br]developing advanced reactors.

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That's why 40 different entrepreneurs[br]are working on this problem.

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And I, myself, have been[br]very excited about it.

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We did a report:[br]"How to Make Nuclear Cheap."

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In particular, the thorium reactor[br]shows a lot of promise.

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So when the climate[br]scientist, James Hansen,

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asked if I wanted to go to China with him

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and look at the Chinese[br]advanced nuclear program,

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I jumped at the chance.

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We were there with MIT[br]and UC Berkeley engineers.

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And I had in my mind

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that the Chinese would be able[br]to do with nuclear

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what they did with so many other things --

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start to crank out small nuclear[br]reactors on assembly lines,

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ship them up like iPhones or MacBooks[br]and send them around the world.

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I would get one at home in Berkeley.

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But what I found was somewhat different.

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The presentations were all[br]very exciting and very promising;

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they have multiple reactors[br]that they're working on.

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The time came for the thorium reactor,[br]and a bunch of us were excited.

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They went through the whole presentation,[br]they got to the timeline

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and they said,

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"We're going to have[br]a thorium molten salt reactor

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ready for sale to the world

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by 2040."

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And I was like, "What?"

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(Laughter)

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I looked at my colleagues and I was like,

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"Excuse me --

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can you guys speed that up a little bit?

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Because we're in a little bit[br]of a climate crisis right now.

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And your cities are really[br]polluted, by the way."

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And they responded back, they were like,

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"I'm not sure what you've heard[br]about our thorium program,

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but we don't have a third of our budget,

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and your department of energy[br]hasn't been particularly forthcoming

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with all that data you guys[br]have on testing reactors."

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And I said, "Well, I've got an idea.

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You know how you've got 10 years[br]where you're demonstrating that reactor?

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Let's just skip that part,

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and let's just go right[br]to commercializing it.

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That will save money and time."

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And the engineer just[br]looked at me and said,

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"Let me ask you a question:

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Would you buy a car that had never[br]been demonstrated before?"

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So what about the other reactors?

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There's a reactor that's coming online[br]now, they're starting to sell it.

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It's a high-temperature gas reactor.

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It can't melt down.

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But it's really big and bulky,[br]that's part of the safety,

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and nobody thinks[br]it's going to ever get cheaper

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than the reactors that we have.

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The ones that use waste as fuel[br]are really cool ideas, but the truth is,

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we don't actually know how to do that yet.

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There's some risk that you'll[br]actually make more waste,

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and most people think[br]that if you're including

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that waste part of the process,

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it's just going to make the whole[br]machine a lot more expensive,

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it's just adding another complicated step.

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The truth is,

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there's real questions about how much[br]of that we're going to do.

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I mean, we went to India and asked[br]about the nuclear program.

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The government said[br]before the Paris climate talks

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that they were going to do something[br]like 30 new nuclear plants.

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But when we got there[br]and interviewed people

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and even looked at the internal documents,

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they're now saying[br]they're going to do about five.

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And in most of the world,[br]especially the rich world,

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they're not talking[br]about building new reactors.

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We're actually talking[br]about taking reactors down

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before their lifetimes are over.

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Germany's actually pressuring[br]its neighbors to do that.

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I mentioned the United States --

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we could lose half of our reactors[br]over the next 15 years,

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which would wipe out 40 percent[br]of the emissions reductions

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we're supposed to get[br]under the Clean Power Plan.

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Of course, in Japan, they took[br]all their nuclear plants offline,

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replaced them with coal,[br]natural gas, oil burning,

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and they're only expected to bring[br]online about a third to two-thirds.

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So when we went through the numbers,

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and just added that up --

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how much nuclear do we see[br]China and India bringing online

0:10:05.173,0:10:07.135
over the next 15 years,

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how much do we see at risk[br]of being taken offline --

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this was the most startling finding.

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What we found is that[br]the world is actually at risk

0:10:16.567,0:10:22.031
of losing four times more clean energy[br]than we lost over the last 10 years.

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In other words: we're not[br]in a clean energy revolution;

0:10:25.429,0:10:27.539
we're in a clean energy crisis.

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So it's understandable that engineers[br]would look for a technical fix

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to the fears that people have of nuclear.

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But when you consider[br]that these are big challenges to do,

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that they're going to take[br]a long time to solve,

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there's this other issue, which is:

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Are those technical fixes[br]really going to solve people's fears?

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Let's take safety.

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You know, despite what people think,

0:10:49.919,0:10:53.052
it's hard to figure out how[br]to make nuclear power much safer.

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I mean, every medical[br]journal that looks at it --

0:10:55.418,0:10:58.526
this is the most recent study[br]from the British journal, "Lancet,"

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one of the most respected[br]journals in the world --

0:11:01.027,0:11:03.546
nuclear is the safest way[br]to make reliable power.

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Everybody's scared of the accidents.

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So you go look at the accident data --

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Fukushima, Chernobyl --

0:11:09.212,0:11:11.915
the World Health Organization[br]finds the same thing:

0:11:11.939,0:11:15.914
the vast majority of harm[br]is caused by people panicking,

0:11:15.938,0:11:18.258
and they're panicking[br]because they're afraid.

0:11:18.282,0:11:19.507
In other words,

0:11:19.531,0:11:23.064
the harm that's caused[br]isn't actually caused by the machines

0:11:23.088,0:11:24.469
or the radiation.

0:11:24.493,0:11:26.222
It's caused by our fears.

0:11:26.573,0:11:28.018
And what about the waste?

0:11:28.042,0:11:29.634
Everyone worries about the waste.

0:11:29.658,0:11:31.841
Well, the interesting[br]thing about the waste

0:11:31.865,0:11:33.284
is how little of it there is.

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This is just from one plant.

0:11:34.709,0:11:38.086
If you take all the nuclear waste[br]we've ever made in the United States,

0:11:38.110,0:11:40.309
put it on a football field, stacked it up,

0:11:40.333,0:11:42.556
it would only reach 20 feet high.

0:11:42.580,0:11:45.854
And people say it's poisoning[br]people or doing something --

0:11:45.878,0:11:48.777
it's not, it's just sitting[br]there, it's just being monitored.

0:11:48.801,0:11:50.188
There's not very much of it.

0:11:50.212,0:11:54.035
By contrast, the waste that we don't[br]control from energy production --

0:11:54.059,0:11:57.183
we call it "pollution," and it kills[br]seven million people a year,

0:11:57.207,0:12:00.036
and it's threatening very serious[br]levels of global warming.

0:12:00.060,0:12:04.012
And the truth is that even if we get[br]good at using that waste as fuel,

0:12:04.036,0:12:06.311
there's always going to be[br]some fuel left over.

0:12:06.335,0:12:10.206
That means there's always going to be[br]people that think it's a big problem

0:12:10.230,0:12:13.534
for reasons that maybe don't have[br]as much to do with the actual waste

0:12:13.558,0:12:14.827
as we think.

0:12:14.851,0:12:16.596
Well, what about the weapons?

0:12:17.052,0:12:20.345
Maybe the most surprising thing[br]is that we can't find any examples

0:12:20.369,0:12:22.322
of countries that have nuclear power

0:12:22.346,0:12:24.774
and then, "Oh!" decide to go get a weapon.

0:12:24.798,0:12:26.500
In fact, it works the opposite.

0:12:26.524,0:12:28.690
What we find is, the only way we know

0:12:28.714,0:12:31.166
how to get rid large numbers[br]of nuclear weapons

0:12:31.190,0:12:33.990
is by using the plutonium in the warheads

0:12:34.014,0:12:36.466
as fuel in our nuclear power plants.

0:12:36.490,0:12:40.404
And so, if you are wanting to get[br]the world rid of nuclear weapons,

0:12:40.428,0:12:43.090
then we're going to need[br]a lot more nuclear power.

0:12:43.955,0:12:46.828
(Applause)

0:12:49.515,0:12:50.881
As I was leaving China,

0:12:50.905,0:12:54.094
the engineer that brought Bill Gates there[br]kind of pulled me aside,

0:12:54.118,0:12:56.899
and he said, "You know, Michael,[br]I appreciate you interest

0:12:56.923,0:12:59.630
in all the different nuclear[br]supply technologies,

0:12:59.654,0:13:02.576
but there's this more basic issue,

0:13:02.600,0:13:05.139
which is that there's just not[br]enough global demand.

0:13:05.163,0:13:08.088
I mean, we can crank out[br]these machines on assembly lines,

0:13:08.112,0:13:09.856
we do know how to make things cheap,

0:13:09.880,0:13:12.278
but there's just not enough[br]people that want them."

0:13:12.302,0:13:17.244
And so, let's do solar and wind[br]and efficiency and conservation.

0:13:17.268,0:13:19.552
Let's accelerate the advanced[br]nuclear programs.

0:13:19.576,0:13:22.729
I think we should triple the amount[br]of money we're spending on it.

0:13:23.054,0:13:25.443
But I just think the most important thing,

0:13:25.467,0:13:27.623
if we're going to overcome[br]the climate crisis,

0:13:27.647,0:13:32.260
is to keep in mind that the cause[br]of the clean energy crisis

0:13:32.922,0:13:35.181
isn't from within our machines,

0:13:35.205,0:13:37.013
it's from within ourselves.

0:13:37.557,0:13:38.808
Thank you very much.

0:13:38.832,0:13:42.426
(Applause)