[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:00.86,0:00:03.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As a kid I always loved information
Dialogue: 0,0:00:03.74,0:00:05.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that I could get from data
Dialogue: 0,0:00:05.59,0:00:08.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the stories that could be told with numbers.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:08.63,0:00:10.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I remember, growing up, I'd be frustrated at
Dialogue: 0,0:00:10.91,0:00:16.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how my own parents would lie to me using numbers.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:16.46,0:00:21.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Talithia, if I've told you once \NI've told you a thousand times."
Dialogue: 0,0:00:21.44,0:00:25.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,No dad, you've only told me 17 times
Dialogue: 0,0:00:25.34,0:00:28.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and twice it wasn't my fault. (Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:00:28.50,0:00:31.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think that is one of the reasons I got a Ph.D. in statistics.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:31.66,0:00:32.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I always wanted to know,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:32.57,0:00:35.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what are people trying to hide with numbers?
Dialogue: 0,0:00:35.76,0:00:36.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As a statistician,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:36.94,0:00:40.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I want people to show me the data
Dialogue: 0,0:00:40.79,0:00:43.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so I can decide for myself.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:43.13,0:00:46.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Donald and I were pregnant with our third child
Dialogue: 0,0:00:46.18,0:00:48.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we were at about 41 and a half weeks,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:48.91,0:00:52.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what some of you may refer to as being overdue.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:52.29,0:00:54.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Statisticians, we call that
Dialogue: 0,0:00:54.12,0:00:56.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,being within the 95 percent confidence interval.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:56.81,0:00:58.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:00:58.67,0:01:00.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And at this point in the process
Dialogue: 0,0:01:00.95,0:01:03.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we had to come in every couple of days
Dialogue: 0,0:01:03.14,0:01:04.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to do a stress test on the baby,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:04.95,0:01:06.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and this is just routine,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:06.13,0:01:10.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it tests whether or not the baby \Nis feeling any type of undue stress.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:10.72,0:01:14.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And you are rarely, if ever, seen by your actual doctor,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:14.11,0:01:17.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,just whoever happens to be \Nworking at the hospital that day.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:17.28,0:01:20.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So we go in for a stress test and after 20 minutes
Dialogue: 0,0:01:20.03,0:01:23.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the doctor comes out and he says,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:23.52,0:01:29.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Your baby is under stress, we need to induce you."
Dialogue: 0,0:01:29.08,0:01:33.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, as a statistician, what's my response?
Dialogue: 0,0:01:33.70,0:01:37.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Show me the data!
Dialogue: 0,0:01:37.37,0:01:40.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So then he proceeds to tell us
Dialogue: 0,0:01:40.07,0:01:42.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the baby's heart rate trace went from 18 minutes,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:42.50,0:01:44.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the baby's heart rate was in the normal zone
Dialogue: 0,0:01:44.47,0:01:47.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and for two minutes it was in what appeared to be
Dialogue: 0,0:01:47.42,0:01:51.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,my heart rate zone and I said,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:51.13,0:01:53.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Is it possible that maybe this was my heart rate?
Dialogue: 0,0:01:53.50,0:01:55.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I was moving around a little bit,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:55.49,0:01:57.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's hard to lay still on your back,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:57.79,0:02:00.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,41 weeks pregnant for 20 minutes.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:00.31,0:02:02.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Maybe it was shifting around."
Dialogue: 0,0:02:02.48,0:02:07.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He said, "Well, we don't want to take any chances."
Dialogue: 0,0:02:07.46,0:02:08.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I said okay.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:08.72,0:02:10.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I said, "What if I was at 36 weeks
Dialogue: 0,0:02:10.44,0:02:12.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with this same data?
Dialogue: 0,0:02:12.24,0:02:16.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Would your decision be to induce?"
Dialogue: 0,0:02:16.12,0:02:19.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Well, no, I would wait until you were at least
Dialogue: 0,0:02:19.69,0:02:21.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,38 weeks, but you are almost 42,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:21.70,0:02:23.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there is no reason to leave that baby inside,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:23.71,0:02:25.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,let's get you a room."
Dialogue: 0,0:02:25.66,0:02:32.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I said, "Well, why don't we just do it again?
Dialogue: 0,0:02:32.24,0:02:33.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We can collect more data.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:33.96,0:02:36.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I can try to be really still for 20 minutes.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:36.37,0:02:39.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We can average the two and see
Dialogue: 0,0:02:39.06,0:02:41.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what that means. (Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:02:41.74,0:02:45.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And he goes,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:45.38,0:02:52.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Ma'am, I just don't want you to have a miscarriage."
Dialogue: 0,0:02:52.43,0:02:55.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That makes three of us.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:55.57,0:02:56.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then he says,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:56.72,0:03:00.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Your chances of having a miscarriage double
Dialogue: 0,0:03:00.84,0:03:04.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when you go past your due date. Let's get you a room."
Dialogue: 0,0:03:04.60,0:03:10.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Wow. So now as a statistician, what's my response?
Dialogue: 0,0:03:10.89,0:03:12.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Show me the data!
Dialogue: 0,0:03:12.24,0:03:13.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Dude, you're talking chances,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:13.44,0:03:15.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I do chances all day long, tell me all about chances.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:15.70,0:03:17.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let's talk chances. (Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:03:17.52,0:03:19.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let's talk chances.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:19.49,0:03:20.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I say, "Okay, great.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:20.69,0:03:24.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Do I go from a 30-percent \Nchance to a 60-percent chance?
Dialogue: 0,0:03:24.59,0:03:27.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Where are we here with this miscarriage thing?
Dialogue: 0,0:03:27.14,0:03:30.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And he goes, "Not quite, but it doubles,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:30.44,0:03:35.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we really just want what's best for the baby."
Dialogue: 0,0:03:35.42,0:03:37.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Undaunted, I try a different angle.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:37.58,0:03:43.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I said, "Okay, out of 1,000 full-term pregnant women,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:43.09,0:03:45.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how many of them are going to miscarry
Dialogue: 0,0:03:45.62,0:03:47.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,just before their due date?
Dialogue: 0,0:03:47.41,0:03:50.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then he looks at me and looks at Donald,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:50.26,0:03:54.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and he goes, about one in 1,000.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:54.96,0:03:57.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I said, "Okay, so of those 1,000 women, how many
Dialogue: 0,0:03:57.79,0:04:02.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are going to miscarry just after their due date?"
Dialogue: 0,0:04:02.65,0:04:06.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"About two." (Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:04:06.22,0:04:08.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I said, "Okay, so you are telling me that my chances
Dialogue: 0,0:04:08.27,0:04:12.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,go from a 0.1-percent chance
Dialogue: 0,0:04:12.21,0:04:16.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to a 0.2-percent chance.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:16.46,0:04:18.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Okay, so at this point the data is not convincing us
Dialogue: 0,0:04:18.76,0:04:20.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we need to be induced,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:20.38,0:04:22.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and so then we proceed to have a conversation
Dialogue: 0,0:04:22.33,0:04:24.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about how inductions lead to a higher rate
Dialogue: 0,0:04:24.98,0:04:28.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of Cesarean sections, and if at all \Npossible we'd like to avoid that.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:28.97,0:04:30.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then I said, you know,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:30.22,0:04:34.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I really don't think my due date is accurate. (Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:04:34.96,0:04:38.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so this really stunned him
Dialogue: 0,0:04:38.44,0:04:40.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and he looks sort of puzzled
Dialogue: 0,0:04:40.10,0:04:42.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I said, well you may not know this
Dialogue: 0,0:04:42.23,0:04:43.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but pregnancy due dates are calculated
Dialogue: 0,0:04:43.81,0:04:46.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,assuming that you have a standard 28 day cycle
Dialogue: 0,0:04:46.35,0:04:47.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and my cycle ranges,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:47.75,0:04:51.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,sometimes it's 27, sometimes it is up to 38...
Dialogue: 0,0:04:51.30,0:04:55.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I have been collecting the data to prove it.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:55.25,0:04:58.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:04:58.41,0:05:01.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so we ended up leaving the hospital that day
Dialogue: 0,0:05:01.54,0:05:04.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,without being induced,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:04.05,0:05:10.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we actually had to sign a waiver to walk out of the hospital.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:10.26,0:05:14.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I'm not advocating that you not listen to your Doctors,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:14.18,0:05:15.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because even with our first child
Dialogue: 0,0:05:15.29,0:05:19.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we were induced at 38 weeks, cervical fluid was low,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:19.51,0:05:21.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm not anti-medical intervention.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:21.97,0:05:24.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But why were confident to leave that day?
Dialogue: 0,0:05:24.83,0:05:28.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, we had data that told a different story.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:28.48,0:05:33.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We had been collecting data for six years.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:33.49,0:05:35.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I had this temperature data,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:35.79,0:05:37.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it told a different story.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:37.06,0:05:44.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In fact, we could probably pretty accurately estimate conception.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:44.48,0:05:46.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Yeah, that's a story you want to tell
Dialogue: 0,0:05:46.38,0:05:49.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at your kid's wedding reception. (Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:05:49.63,0:05:53.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I remember like it was yesterday... (Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:05:53.32,0:05:55.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,my temperature was a sizzling 97.8 degrees
Dialogue: 0,0:05:55.54,0:06:03.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as I stared into your father's eyes. (Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:06:03.28,0:06:07.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,22 more years we're telling that story.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:07.13,0:06:08.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But we were confident to leave because
Dialogue: 0,0:06:08.62,0:06:09.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we had been collecting data.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:09.92,0:06:13.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now what does that data look like?
Dialogue: 0,0:06:13.10,0:06:14.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Here's a standard chart
Dialogue: 0,0:06:14.99,0:06:17.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of a woman's waking body temperature
Dialogue: 0,0:06:17.73,0:06:19.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,during the course of a cycle.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:19.25,0:06:20.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So from the beginning of the menstrual cycle
Dialogue: 0,0:06:20.70,0:06:22.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,until the beginning of the next.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:22.05,0:06:24.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You'll see that the temperature is not random.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:24.87,0:06:26.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Right, there clearly there is a low pattern
Dialogue: 0,0:06:26.94,0:06:28.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at the beginning of her cycle
Dialogue: 0,0:06:28.94,0:06:31.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then you see this jump and then a higher
Dialogue: 0,0:06:31.43,0:06:33.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,set of temperatures at the end of her cycle.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:33.71,0:06:35.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So what's happening here?
Dialogue: 0,0:06:35.13,0:06:37.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What is that data telling you?
Dialogue: 0,0:06:37.74,0:06:40.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well ladies, at the beginning of our cycle,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:40.44,0:06:43.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the hormone estrogen is dominant and that estrogen
Dialogue: 0,0:06:43.49,0:06:47.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,causes a suppression of your body temperature.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:47.59,0:06:51.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And at ovulation, your body releases an egg
Dialogue: 0,0:06:51.13,0:06:56.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and progesterone takes over, pro-gestation.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:56.14,0:06:58.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so your body heats up in anticipation
Dialogue: 0,0:06:58.49,0:07:02.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of housing this new little fertilized egg.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:02.28,0:07:05.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So why this temperature jump?
Dialogue: 0,0:07:05.01,0:07:08.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, think about when a bird sits on her eggs...
Dialogue: 0,0:07:08.69,0:07:10.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,why is she sitting on them?
Dialogue: 0,0:07:10.15,0:07:12.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,She wants to keep them warm,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:12.37,0:07:13.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,protect them and keep them warm.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:13.59,0:07:15.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Ladies, this is exactly what our bodies do every month,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:15.86,0:07:17.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they heat up in anticipation
Dialogue: 0,0:07:17.96,0:07:21.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of keeping a new little life warm.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:21.61,0:07:24.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And if nothing happens, if you are not pregnant,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:24.02,0:07:28.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then estrogen takes back over and that cycle starts all over again.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:28.56,0:07:30.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But if you do get pregnant, sometimes you
Dialogue: 0,0:07:30.51,0:07:32.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,actually see another shift in your temperatures
Dialogue: 0,0:07:34.64,0:07:36.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it stays elevated for those whole nine months.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:36.71,0:07:38.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's why you see those pregnant woman
Dialogue: 0,0:07:38.05,0:07:39.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,just sweating and hot...
Dialogue: 0,0:07:39.14,0:07:43.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because their temperatures are high.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:43.04,0:07:47.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Here is a chart that we had about 3 or 4 years ago
Dialogue: 0,0:07:47.73,0:07:49.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we were really very excited about this chart,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:49.43,0:07:51.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you'll se the low temperature level
Dialogue: 0,0:07:51.97,0:07:55.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then a shift and for about five days,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:55.01,0:07:57.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's about the time it takes for the egg to travel
Dialogue: 0,0:07:57.47,0:07:59.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,down the fallopian tube and implant,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:59.92,0:08:03.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then you see those temperature charts go up a little bit.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:03.56,0:08:06.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And in fact, we had a second temperature shift
Dialogue: 0,0:08:06.77,0:08:11.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,confirmed with a pregnancy test that were indeed pregnant
Dialogue: 0,0:08:11.14,0:08:13.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with our fist child, very exciting.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:13.91,0:08:15.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Until a couple of days later
Dialogue: 0,0:08:15.94,0:08:20.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I saw some spotting and then I noticed heavy blood flow,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:20.88,0:08:25.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we had in fact had an early stage miscarriage.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:25.24,0:08:29.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Had I not been taking my temperature....
Dialogue: 0,0:08:29.32,0:08:33.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I really just thought my period was late that month....
Dialogue: 0,0:08:33.01,0:08:34.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but we actually had data to show
Dialogue: 0,0:08:34.82,0:08:37.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we had miscarried this baby,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:37.45,0:08:39.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and even though this data revealed a really
Dialogue: 0,0:08:39.28,0:08:40.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,unfortunate event in our lives,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:40.86,0:08:43.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it was information that we can then take to our doctor.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:43.53,0:08:46.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So if there was a fertility issue or some problem
Dialogue: 0,0:08:46.16,0:08:47.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I had data to show,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:47.41,0:08:49.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we got pregnant, our temperature shifted,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:49.76,0:08:51.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we somehow lost this baby...
Dialogue: 0,0:08:51.44,0:08:54.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what is it that we can do to help prevent this problem?
Dialogue: 0,0:08:54.80,0:08:58.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it's not just about temperatures
Dialogue: 0,0:08:58.33,0:09:01.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it is not just about fertility,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:01.07,0:09:04.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we can use data about our bodies to tell us a lot of things.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:04.96,0:09:06.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For instance, did you know that taking your
Dialogue: 0,0:09:06.80,0:09:08.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,temperature can tell you a lot
Dialogue: 0,0:09:08.57,0:09:10.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about the condition of your thyroid?
Dialogue: 0,0:09:10.92,0:09:15.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So your thyroid works a lot like the thermostat in your house.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:15.31,0:09:16.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There is an optimal temperature that you want in your house,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:16.98,0:09:18.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you set your thermostat,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:18.68,0:09:21.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when it gets too cold in the house your thermostat kicks in
Dialogue: 0,0:09:21.36,0:09:24.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and says, "hey we need to blow some heat around",
Dialogue: 0,0:09:24.39,0:09:25.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or if it gets too hot your thermostat
Dialogue: 0,0:09:25.70,0:09:29.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,sort of registers turn the AC on, cool us off
Dialogue: 0,0:09:29.62,0:09:33.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's exactly how your thyroid works in your body.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:33.42,0:09:36.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Your thyroid tries to keep an optimal temperature
Dialogue: 0,0:09:36.12,0:09:37.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for your body.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:37.14,0:09:39.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If it get too cold your thyroid says we need to heat up,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:39.63,0:09:42.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if it gets too hot, your thyroid cools you down.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:42.81,0:09:47.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But what happens when your thyroid is not functioning well?
Dialogue: 0,0:09:47.52,0:09:49.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But when it doesn't function then it shows up
Dialogue: 0,0:09:49.59,0:09:50.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in your body temperatures,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:50.77,0:09:53.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they tend to be lower than normal and very erratic.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:53.43,0:09:54.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So by collecting this data
Dialogue: 0,0:09:54.70,0:09:57.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you can find out information about your thyroid.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:57.68,0:10:01.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, what is it, if you had a thyroid problem and you went to the doctor,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:01.25,0:10:03.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,your doctor would actually test the amount of
Dialogue: 0,0:10:03.68,0:10:06.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,thyroid stimulating hormone in your blood.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:06.62,0:10:11.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But the problem with that test is
Dialogue: 0,0:10:11.39,0:10:13.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it doesn't tell you how active the hormone is in your body.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:13.72,0:10:15.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So you may have a lot of hormone present
Dialogue: 0,0:10:15.62,0:10:17.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but it might not be actively working to regulate
Dialogue: 0,0:10:17.36,0:10:18.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,your body temperature.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:18.61,0:10:20.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So just by collecting your temperature every day
Dialogue: 0,0:10:20.36,0:10:24.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you get information about the condition of your thyroid.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:24.13,0:10:26.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So what if you don't want to take your temperature every day?
Dialogue: 0,0:10:26.67,0:10:28.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I advocate that you do
Dialogue: 0,0:10:28.02,0:10:29.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but there's tons of other things you can take.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:29.88,0:10:33.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You can take your blood pressure, you can take your weight...
Dialogue: 0,0:10:33.36,0:10:34.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,yeah, who's excited about
Dialogue: 0,0:10:34.27,0:10:37.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,taking your weight every day. (Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:10:37.81,0:10:43.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Early on in our marriage Donald had a stuffy nose
Dialogue: 0,0:10:43.11,0:10:45.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and he had been taking a slew of medications
Dialogue: 0,0:10:45.72,0:10:50.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to try to relieve his stuffy nose to no avail.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:50.11,0:10:53.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so that night he comes and he wakes me up and he says
Dialogue: 0,0:10:53.96,0:10:58.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"honey, I can't breath out of my nose".
Dialogue: 0,0:10:58.30,0:11:04.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I sort of roll over and I look, and I said, well can you breath out of your mouth?
Dialogue: 0,0:11:04.27,0:11:11.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And he goes, "yes, but I cant breath out of my nose"!
Dialogue: 0,0:11:11.14,0:11:14.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so like any good wife, I rush him
Dialogue: 0,0:11:14.40,0:11:15.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to the emergency room
Dialogue: 0,0:11:15.100,0:11:18.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at two o'clock in the morning.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:18.56,0:11:21.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the whole time I'm driving and I'm thinking
Dialogue: 0,0:11:21.90,0:11:24.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you can't die on my now. (Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:11:24.75,0:11:26.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We just got married
Dialogue: 0,0:11:26.92,0:11:31.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,people would think I killed you!
Dialogue: 0,0:11:31.58,0:11:35.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so, we get to the ER and the nurse sees us
Dialogue: 0,0:11:35.05,0:11:37.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and he can't breath out of his nose and so
Dialogue: 0,0:11:37.67,0:11:39.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,she brings us to the back and the doctor say,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:39.75,0:11:41.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what seems to be the problem and he goes,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:41.31,0:11:42.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"I can't breath out of my nose".
Dialogue: 0,0:11:42.93,0:11:44.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And he said, you can't breath out of your nose? "No"...
Dialogue: 0,0:11:44.99,0:11:50.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but he can breath out of his mouth...(laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:11:50.87,0:11:53.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He takes a step back and he looks at both of us
Dialogue: 0,0:11:53.51,0:11:57.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and he says sir, I think I know the problem.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:57.37,0:11:58.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You're having a heart attack,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:58.81,0:12:00.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm going to order an EKG and a CAT scan
Dialogue: 0,0:12:00.86,0:12:04.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for you immediately.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:04.96,0:12:05.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And we are thinking,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:05.83,0:12:08.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,no, no, no... it's not a heart attack, he can breathe,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:08.77,0:12:13.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,just out of his mouth. No, no. no.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:13.77,0:12:15.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and so we go back and forth with this doctor
Dialogue: 0,0:12:15.81,0:12:18.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because we think it is the incorrect diagnosis
Dialogue: 0,0:12:18.51,0:12:22.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and he's like no really, it'll be fine, just calm down.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:22.46,0:12:27.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I'm thinking, how do you calm down... I don't think he's having a heart attack.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:27.17,0:12:29.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Fortunately for us, this doctor was at the end of the shift.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:29.62,0:12:32.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So this new doctor comes in he sees us clearly
Dialogue: 0,0:12:32.54,0:12:35.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,distraught, with a husband who can't breath
Dialogue: 0,0:12:35.54,0:12:38.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,out of his nose. (Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:12:39.41,0:12:41.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He starts asking us questions.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:41.42,0:12:46.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He says well, do you two exercise?
Dialogue: 0,0:12:46.30,0:12:52.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We ride our bikes, we go to the gym,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:52.01,0:12:55.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,occasionally. (Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:12:55.16,0:12:57.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We move around.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:57.90,0:13:01.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And he says, what were you doing just before you came here?
Dialogue: 0,0:13:01.06,0:13:03.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm thinking, I was sleeping, honestly...
Dialogue: 0,0:13:03.27,0:13:06.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But okay, what was Donald doing just before?
Dialogue: 0,0:13:06.32,0:13:09.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So Donald goes into this slew of medications he was taking.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:09.65,0:13:12.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He lists, I took this decongestant and then took this nasal spray
Dialogue: 0,0:13:12.61,0:13:14.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then all of a sudden the light bulb goes off and he says,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:14.62,0:13:18.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Oh! You should never mix this decongestant with this nasal spray,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:18.83,0:13:19.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,clogs you up every time.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:19.88,0:13:20.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Here, take this one instead,"
Dialogue: 0,0:13:20.86,0:13:23.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and he gives us a prescription.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:23.32,0:13:25.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We're looking at each other and I looked at the doctor
Dialogue: 0,0:13:25.32,0:13:27.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I said why is it that it seems like you
Dialogue: 0,0:13:27.50,0:13:29.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,were able to accurately diagnose his condition
Dialogue: 0,0:13:29.95,0:13:32.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but this previous doctor wanted to order
Dialogue: 0,0:13:32.17,0:13:34.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,an EKG and a CAT scan?
Dialogue: 0,0:13:34.67,0:13:37.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And he looks at us and says,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:37.28,0:13:40.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"when a 350 pound man walks in the ER
Dialogue: 0,0:13:40.37,0:13:41.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and says he can't breath,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:41.48,0:13:43.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you assume he's having a heart attack
Dialogue: 0,0:13:43.26,0:13:47.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you ask questions later."
Dialogue: 0,0:13:47.21,0:13:52.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,ER doctors are trained to make decisions quickly,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:52.93,0:13:55.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but not always accurately.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:55.02,0:13:56.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so had we had some information
Dialogue: 0,0:13:56.57,0:13:58.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about our heart health to share with him
Dialogue: 0,0:13:58.97,0:14:01.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,maybe we would have gotten a better diagnosis
Dialogue: 0,0:14:01.16,0:14:02.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the first time.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:02.74,0:14:04.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I want you to consider the following chart,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:04.97,0:14:06.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of systolic blood pressure measurements
Dialogue: 0,0:14:06.93,0:14:11.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from October 2010 to July 2012.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:11.47,0:14:12.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You'll see that these measurements start
Dialogue: 0,0:14:12.69,0:14:16.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the prehypertension/Hypertension zone,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:16.75,0:14:18.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but over about the course of a year and a half
Dialogue: 0,0:14:18.95,0:14:21.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they move into the normal zone.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:21.59,0:14:25.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is about the hear rate of a healthy 16 year old.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:25.70,0:14:29.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What story is this data telling you?
Dialogue: 0,0:14:29.73,0:14:32.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Obviously is the data from someone
Dialogue: 0,0:14:32.15,0:14:35.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who's made a drastic transformation
Dialogue: 0,0:14:35.28,0:14:40.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and fortunately for us, that person happens to be here today.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:40.44,0:14:44.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So that 350 pound guy that walked into the ER with me
Dialogue: 0,0:14:44.70,0:14:47.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is now an even sexier and healthier
Dialogue: 0,0:14:47.67,0:14:54.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,225 pound guy, and that's his blood pressure trace.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:54.36,0:14:57.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So over the course of that year and a half
Dialogue: 0,0:14:57.82,0:14:59.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Donald's eating changed
Dialogue: 0,0:14:59.39,0:15:01.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and his exercise regimen changed,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:01.38,0:15:04.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and his heart rate responded,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:04.17,0:15:05.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,his blood pressure responded to that change
Dialogue: 0,0:15:05.67,0:15:07.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that he made in his body.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:07.97,0:15:09.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So what's the take home message
Dialogue: 0,0:15:09.95,0:15:13.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that I want you to leave with today?
Dialogue: 0,0:15:13.66,0:15:18.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,By taking ownership of your data just like we've done,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:18.04,0:15:21.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,just by taking this daily measurements about yourself,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:21.98,0:15:24.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you become the expert on your body.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:24.49,0:15:26.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You become the authority.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:26.49,0:15:28.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's not hard to do.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:28.92,0:15:31.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You don't have to have a Ph.D. in statistics
Dialogue: 0,0:15:31.02,0:15:31.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to be an expert in yourself.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:31.98,0:15:33.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You don't have to have a medical degree
Dialogue: 0,0:15:33.61,0:15:35.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to be your body's expert.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:35.74,0:15:38.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Medical doctors, they're experts on the population,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:38.76,0:15:41.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but you are the expert on yourself.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:41.43,0:15:43.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so when the two of you come together,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:43.22,0:15:45.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when two experts come together
Dialogue: 0,0:15:45.31,0:15:48.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the two of you are able to make a better decision
Dialogue: 0,0:15:48.11,0:15:50.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than just your doctor alone.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:50.11,0:15:53.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now that you understand the power of information
Dialogue: 0,0:15:53.87,0:15:55.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that you can get through personal data collection,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:55.74,0:15:59.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'd like you all to stand and raise your right hand.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:59.41,0:16:01.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:16:01.97,0:16:04.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Yes, get it up.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:06.77,0:16:14.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I challenge you to take ownership of your data
Dialogue: 0,0:16:14.24,0:16:17.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and today, I hereby confer upon you
Dialogue: 0,0:16:17.24,0:16:21.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a TEDx associate's degree in elementary statistics
Dialogue: 0,0:16:21.59,0:16:26.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with a concentration in time dependent data analysis
Dialogue: 0,0:16:26.03,0:16:29.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with all the rights and privileges appertaining thereto.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:29.74,0:16:33.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so the next time you are in your doctor's office.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:33.22,0:16:36.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As newly inducted statisticians,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:36.41,0:16:38.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what should always be your response?
Dialogue: 0,0:16:38.92,0:16:40.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Show me the data! I can't hear you...
Dialogue: 0,0:16:40.75,0:16:42.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Show me the data!
Dialogue: 0,0:16:42.52,0:16:43.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One more time...
Dialogue: 0,0:16:43.83,0:16:45.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Show me the data!
Dialogue: 0,0:16:45.37,0:16:46.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Show me the data.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:46.55,0:16:49.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thank you.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:49.57,0:16:54.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)