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As a kid I've always loved information

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that I could get from data

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and the stories that could be told with numbers

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I remember growing up I'd be frustrated on

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how my own parents would lie to me

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using numbers you know.

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[?] "I've told you once I've told you a thousand times."

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No dad, you've only told me 17 times and twice it wasn't my fault.

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I think that's one of the reasons I got a PhD in statistics.

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You know I always wanted to know,

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what are people trying to hide with numbers?

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As a statistician, I want people to show me the data

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so I can decide for myself.

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Donald and I were pregnant with our third child

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and we were at about 41 and a half weeks,

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what some of you may refer to as been overdue.

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Statisticians we call that being within the 95% confidence interval. [Laughter]

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And, at this point in the process

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we had to come in every couple of days

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to do a stress test on the baby, and this is just routine,

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it tests whether the baby is feeling any type of undo stress.

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And you are rarely, if ever, seen by your actual Doctor,

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just whoever happens to be working at the hospital that day.

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So we go in for a stress test and after 20 minutes

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the Doctor comes out and he says,

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"your baby is on distress, we need to induce you".

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Now, as a statistician, what's my response?

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Show me the data!

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So he proceeds to tell us the baby's heart rate trace went from 18 minutes,

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the baby's heart rate was on the normal zone

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and for 2 minutes it was in what appeared to be

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my heart rate zone and I said,

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"well, is it possible that maybe this was my heart rate"?

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You know, I was moving around a little bit...

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it's hard to lay still on your back,

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41 weeks pregnant for 20 minutes...

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you know, maybe it was shifting around.

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He said "well... we don't want to take any chances".

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I said okay..."what if I was at 36 weeks with the same data,

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would you decision be to induce"?

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Well, no, no I would wait until you were at least 38 weeks

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but you are almost 42, there is no reason to leave

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that baby inside let's get you a room.

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I said... well...

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why don't we just do it again?

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We can collect more data, I can try to be really still for 20 minutes,

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we can sort of average the two and see .... you know, what that means ... (laughter)

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and.. he goes,

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"Ma'm,I just don't want you to have a miscarriage".

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That makes 3 of us.

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And he says, "your chances of having a miscarriage double

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when you go past your due date, let's get you a room".

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Wow. So now as a statistician, what's my response?

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Show me the data!

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Dude you're talking chances,

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I do chances all day long, tell me all about chances.

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Let's talk chances. (Laugher)

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Let's talk chances.

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So I say, ok, do I go from like a 30% chance to a 60% chance?

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Like, where are we here with this miscarriage thing?

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And he goes..."not quite but it doubles

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and we really just want what's best for the baby".

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Undaunted, I try a different angle.

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I say ok out of 1000 full term pregnant woman,

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how many of them are going to miscarry

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just before their due date?

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And then he looks at me, and looks at Donald then he goes,

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"about 1 in a thousand".

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I said Ok, Ok, and so of those thousand women,

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how many are going to miscarry

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just after their due date? ..."About two".

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I said ok, so you are telling me that my chances

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go from 0.1% chance

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to a 0.2% chance.

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Ok, so at this ppoint the data is not convincing us

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that we need to be induced

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and so then we need to have a conversation

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about how inductions leads to a higher rate

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of cesarean sections and if at all possible we'd like to avoid that.

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And then I said, you know,

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and I really don't think my due date is accurate. (Laughter)

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And so this really stunned him

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and he looks sort of puzzled

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and I said, well you may not know this

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but pregnancy due dates are calculated

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assuming that you have a standard 28 cycle

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and my cycle ranges, sometimes it's 27

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sometimes is up to 38,

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and I have been collecting the data to prove it.

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And so we ended up leaving the hospital that day

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without being induced,

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we actually had to sign a waiver to walk out of the hospital.

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And I'm not advocating that you not listen to your Doctors,

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because even with our first child

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we were induced at 38 weeks, cervical fluid was low,

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I'm not anti-medical intervention.

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But why we were confident to leave that day?

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We had data that told a different story.

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We had been collecting data for 6 years.

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I had this temperature data,

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and it told a different story.

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In fact, we could probably pretty accurately estimate conception.

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Yeah, that's a story you want to tell

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at your kid's wedding reception...

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I remember like it was yesterday ... (Laugher)...

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my temperature was a sizzling 97.8 degrees

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as I stared into your father's eyes, oh yeah, (Laughter)

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22 more years we're telling that story.

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But we were confident to leave because

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we had been collecting data.

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Now what does that data look like?

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Here's a standard chart

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of a woman's waking body temperature

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during the course of a cycle.

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So from the beginning of the menstrual cycle

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until the beginning of the next.

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You'll see that the temperature is not random.

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Right, there clearly there is a low pattern

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at the beginning of her cycle

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and then you see this jump and then a higher

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set of temperatures at the end of her cycle.

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So what's happening here?

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What is that data telling you?

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Well ladies, at the beginning of our cycle,

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the hormone estrogen is dominant and that estrogen

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causes a suppression of your body temperature.

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And at ovulation, your body releases an egg

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and progesterone takes over, pro-gestation.

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And so your body heats up in anticipation

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of housing this new little fertilized egg.

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So why this temperature jump?

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Well, think about when a bird sits on her eggs...

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why is she sitting on them?

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She wants to keep them warm,

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protect them and keep them warm.

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Ladies, this is exactly what our bodies do every month,

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they heat up in anticipation

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of keeping a new little life form.

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And if nothing happens, if you are not pregnant,

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then estrogen takes back over and that cycle starts all over again.

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But if you do get pregnant, sometime you

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actually see another shift in your temperatures

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and it stays elevated for those whole 9 months,

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that's why you see those pregnant woman

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just sweating and hot,

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because their temperatures are high.

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Here is a chart that we had about 3 or 4 years ago

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we were really very excited about this chart,

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you'll se the low temperature level

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and then a shift and for about 5 days,

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that's about the time it takes for the egg to travel

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down the fallopian tube and implant,

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and then you see those temperature charts go up a little bit.

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And in fact, we had a second temperature shift

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confirmed with a pregnancy test that were indeed pregnant

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with our fist child, very exciting.

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Until a couple of days later

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I saw some spotting and then I noticed heavy blood flow,

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and we had in fact had an early stage miscarriage.

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Had I not been taking my temperature

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I really just thought my period was late that month.

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But we actually had data to show

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that we had miscarried this baby,

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and even though this data revealed a really

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unfortunate event in our lives,

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it was information that we can then take to our doctor.

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So if there was a fertility issue or some problem

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I had data to show,

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we got pregnant, our temperature shifted,

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we somehow lost this baby...

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what is it that we can do to help prevent this problem?

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And it's not just about temperatures

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and it is not just about fertility,

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we can use data about our bodies to tell us a lot of things.

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For instance, did you know that taking your

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temperature can tell you a lot

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about the condition of your thyroid?

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So your thyroid works a lot like the thermostat in your house.

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There is an optimal temperature that you want in your house,

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you set your thermostat,

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when it gets too cold in the house your thermostat kicks in

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and says, "hey we need to blow some heat around",

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or if it gets too hot your thermostat

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sort of registers turn the AC on, cool us off

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that's exactly how your thyroid works in your body.

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Your thyroid tries to keep an optimal temperature

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for your body.

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If it get too cold your thyroid says we need to heat up,

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if it gets too hot, your thyroid cools you down.

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But what happens when your thyroid is not functioning well?

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But when it doesn't function then it shows up

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in your body temperatures,

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they tend to be lower than normal and very erratic.

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So by collecting this data

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you can find out information about your thyroid.

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Now, what is it, if you had a thyroid problem and you went to the doctor,

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your doctor would actually test the amount of

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thyroid stimulating hormone in your blood.

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But the problem with that test is

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it doesn't tell you how active the hormone is in your body.

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So you may have a lot of hormone present

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but it might not be actively working to regulate

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your body temperature.

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So just by collecting your temperature every day

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you get information about the condition of your thyroid.

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So what if you don't want to take your temperature every day?

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I advocate that you do

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but there's tons of other things you can take.

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You can take your blood pressure, you can take your weight...

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yeah, who's excited about

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taking your weight every day. (Laughter)

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Early on in our marriage Donald had a stuffy nose

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and he had been taking a slu of medications

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to try to relieve his stuffy nose to no avail.

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And so that night he comes and he wakes me up and he says

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"honey, I can't breath out of my nose".

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And I sort of roll over and I look, and I said, well can you breath out of your mouth?

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And he goes, "yes, but I cant breath out of my nose"!

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And so like any good wife, I rushed him

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to the emergency room

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at 2 o'clock in the morning.

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And the whole time I'm driving and I'm thinking

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you can't die on my now. (Laughter)

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We just got married

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people would think I killed you!

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And so, we get to the ER and the nurse sees us

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and he can't breath out of his nose and so

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she brings us to the back and the doctor say,

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what seems to be the problem and he goes,

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" I can't breath out of my nose".

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And he said, you can't breath out of your nose? "No"...

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but he can breath out of his mouth...(laughter)

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OK, he takes a step back and looks at both of us

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and he says sir, I think I know the problem,

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you're having a heart attack,

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I'm going to order an EKG and a CAT scan

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for you immediately.

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And we are thinking,

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no no no, it's not a heart attack he can breathe

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just out of his mouth...no, no, no,

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and so we go back and forth with this doctor

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because we think it is the incorrect diagnosis

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and he's like no really, it'll be fine, just calm down.

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And I'm thinking, how do you calm down... I don't think he's having a heart attack.

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Fortunately for us, this doctor was at the end of the shift.

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This new doctor comes in he sees us clearly

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distrust with a husband who can't breath

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out of his nose.

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He starts asking us questions.

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He says well, do you two exercise?

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We ride our bikes, we go to the gym... occasionally. (Laughter)

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We move around. And he says, what were you doing

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just before you came here?

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I'm thinking, I was sleeping, honestly,

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But OK, so Donald goes into the slu of medications

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he was taking and he lists,

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"I took this decongestant, and then I took this nasal spray"...

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and then all of a sudden the light bulb goes off

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and he says, "oh, you should never mix

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this decongestant with this nasal spray

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clogs you up every time.

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Here, take this one instead", gives us a prescription

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We're looking at each other and I looked at the doctor

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and I said why is it that it seems you

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were able to accurately diagnose his condition

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but this previous doctor wanted to order

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an EKG and a CAT scan?

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And he looks at us and says,

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when a 350 pound man walks in the ER

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and says he can't breath,

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you assume he's having a heart attack

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and you ask questions later".

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ER doctors are trained to make decisions quickly,

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but not always accurately.

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And so had we had some information

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about our heart health to share with him

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maybe we would have gotten a better diagnosis

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the first time.

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I want you to consider the following chart,

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of systolic blood pressure measurements

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from October 2010 to July 2012.

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You'll see that these measurements start

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in the prehypertension/Hypertension zone,

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but over about the course of a year and a half

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they move into the normal zone.

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This is about the hear rate of a healthy 16 year old.

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What story is this data telling you?

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Obviously is the data from someone

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who's made a drastic transformation

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and fortunately for us, that person happens to be here today.

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So that 350 pound guy that walked into the ER with me

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is now an even sexier and healthier

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225 pound guy, and that's his blood pressure trace.

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Over the course of that year and a half

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Donald's eating changed

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and his exercise regimen changed and

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his heart rate responded,

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his blood pressure responded to that change

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that he made in his body.

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What's the take home message

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that I want you to leave with today?

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By taking ownership of your data just like we've done,

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just by taking this daily measurements about yourself,

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you become the expert of your body,

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you become the authority.

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It's not hard to do.

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You don't have to have a PhD in statistics

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to be an expert in yourself.

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You don't have to have a medical degree

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to be your body's expert.

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Medical doctors, they're experts on the population,

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but you are the expert on yourself.

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And so when the two of you come together,

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when two experts come together

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the two of you are able to make a better decision

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than just your doctor alone.

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Now that you understand the power of information

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that you can get through personal data collection,

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I'd like you all to stand and raise your right hand.

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Yes, get it up.

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I challenge you to take ownership of your data

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and today, I hereby confer upon you

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a TEDx associate's degree in elementary statistics

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with a concentration in time dependent data analysis

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with all the rights and privileges adverteining there to

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and the next time you are in your doctor's office.

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As newly inducted statisticians,

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what should always be your response?

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Show me the data! I can't hear you...

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Show me the data! One more time...

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Show me the data!

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Show me the data.

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Thank you.