9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 As a kid I've always loved information that I could get from data and the stories that could be told with numbers 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 I remember growing up I'll be frustrated on how my own parents would lie to me using numbers you know. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 They lie to you about " I've told you once I've told you a thousand times"..no daddy, you've only told me 17 times and twice it wasn't my fault 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 I think that's one of the reasons I got a PhD in statistics you know, I always wanted to know what are people trying to hide with numbers 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 you know, as a statistician I want people to show me the data so I can decide for myself. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Donald and I were pregnant with our third child and we were at about 41 and a half weeks, what some of you may refer to as been overdue 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Statisticians we call that being within the 95% confidence interval, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and at this point in the process we had to come in every couple of days to do a stress test, on the baby, and this is just routine 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 a test whether the baby is feeling any type of undo stress, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and you are rarely if ever seen by your actual Doctor just whoever happens to be working at the hospital that day. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 So we are going for a stress test and after 20 minutes the Doctor comes out 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and he says "your baby is on distress, we need to induce you" 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 now.. as a statistician what's my response? Show me the data! 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 so, then he proceeds to tell us the baby's heart rate trace went from 18 minutes, the baby's heart rate was on the normal zone 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and for 2 minutes it was it what appeared to be my heart rate zone and I said 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 "well, is it possible that maybe this was my heart rate? I was moving around a little bit 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 is hard to lay still on your back, 41 weeks pregnant for 20 minutes you know, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 maybe it was shifting around. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 He said "well.. we don't want to take any chances" 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 I said Ok, what if I was at 36 weeks with the same data, would you decision be to induce? 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Well, no, no I would wait until you were at lelast 38 weeks but you are almost 42 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 there is no reason to leave that baby inside let's get you a room. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 I said Ok, I said well.. you know.. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 why don't we just do it again, we can collect more data! 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 I can try to be really still for 20 minutes we can sort of average the two and see, you know, what that means 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and.. he goes, "well, Ma'm I just don't want you to hava a miscarriage" 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 That' makes 3 of us! And then he says you know your chances of having a miscarriage double 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 when you go past your due date, let's get you a room 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Wow!.. so now as a statistician, what's my response? 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Show me the data! dude you're talking chances, I do chances all day long, tell me all about chances, let's talk chances 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 let's talk chances! 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 So I said, ok, so do I go from like a 30% chance to a 60% chance, where are we here 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 with this miscarriage?.. and he goes.." uhm, not quite but it doubles and 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 we really just want what's best for the baby." 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Undaunted, I tried to commingle. I said ok out of 1000 full term pregnant woman 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 How many of them are going to miscarry just before their due date? 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And then he looks at me, and looks at Donald then he goes, "about 1 in a thousand". 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 I said Ok, Ok, and so of those 1000 women how many are going to miscarry 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 just after their due date? "about 2." 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 I said ok, so you are telling me that my chances go from 0.1% chance 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 to a 0.2% chance 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Ok, so at this ppoint the data is not convincing us that we need to be induced 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and so then we proceed to have a conversation about how inductions leads to a higher rate 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 of cesarean sections and if at all possible we'd like to avoid that 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and then I said you know and I really don'think my due date is accurate 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And so this really stunned him and he looks sort of puzzled 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and I said, well you may not know this but pregnancy due dates are calculated 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 assuming that you have a standard 28 cycle 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and my cycle ranges sometimes is 27 sometimes is up to 38 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and I have been collecting the data to prove it. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And so... we endeded up leaving the hospital that day without being induced 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 we actually had to sign a waiver to walk out of the hospital 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and I'm not advocating that you not listen to your Doctors, because even with our first child 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 we wre induced at 38 weeks, cervical fluid was low, I'm not anti-medical intervention 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 but why we were confident to leave that day? We had data that told a different story. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 We have been collecting data for 6 years. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 I had this temperature data, and it told a different story in fact, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 we could proabably pretty accurately estimate conception, yeah.. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 conception, yeah.. That's a story you want to tell at your kids wedding reception.. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 "I remember like it was yesterday, my temperature was a sizzling 97.8 degrees.. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 as I stared into your father's eyes.. Oh yeah, oh yeah, 22 more years we're telling that story. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 But we were confident to leave because we've been collecting data. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Now what does that data look like? Here's a standard chart 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 of a woman's waking body temperature during the course of a cycle. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 So from the beginning of the menstrual cycle until the beginning of the next. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 You'll see that the temperature is not random, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 right there clearly there is a low pattern at the beginning of her cycle 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and then you see this jump and then a higher set of temperatures at the end of her cycle. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 So what's happening here? What is that data telling you? Well ladies, at the beginning of our cycle, the hormone estrogen is dominant 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and that estrogen causes a suppression of your body temperature 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and on ovulation, your body releases an egg and progesterone takes over, pro-gestation 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and so your body heats up in anticipation of housing this new little fertilized egg. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 So why this temperature jump? Think about when a bird sits on her eggs. Why is she sitting on them? 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 She wants to keep them warm, protect them and keeping them warm.. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Ladies this is exactly what our bodies do every month, they heat up in anticipation 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 of keeping a new little life form, and if you are not pregnant 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 then estrogen takes back over and that cycle starts all over again, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 but if you do get pregnant, sometime you actually see another shift in your temperatures 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and it stays elevated for those whole 9 months 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 that's why you see those pregnagnt woman sweating and hot 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 because their temperatures are high! 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 here is a chart that we had about 3 or 4 years ago 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 we were really excited about this chart, you'll se the low temperature level 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and then a shift and for about 5 days, that about the time it takes for the egg to travel 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 down the fallopian tube and implant 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and then you see those temperature charts go up a little bit 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and in fact, we had a second temperature shift 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 confirmed with a pregnancy test that were indeed pregnant 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 with our fist child, very exciting. Until a couple of days later 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 I saw some sporting and then I noticed heavy blood flow. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and we had in fact had an early stage miscarriage 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and what appeared had I not been taking my temperature 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 I really just thought my period was late that month 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 but we actually had data to show that we had miscarried this baby 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and even though this data revealed a really unfortunate event in our lives 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 it was information that we can then take to our doctor 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 so if there was a fertility issue or some problem I had data to show, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 look, we got pregnant our temperature shifted, we somehow lost this baby 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 what is tit that we can do to help prevent this problem? 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And is not just about temperatures, and is not just about fertility 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 we can use data about our bodies to tell us a lot of things 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 for instance did you know that taking your temperature can tell you a lot about the condition of your thyroid? 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 so your thyroid works a lot like the thermostat in your house. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 There is an optimal temperature that you want in your house 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 you set your thermostat. When it gets too cold in the house your thermostat kicks in 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and says hey we need to blow some heat around, or if it gets too hot 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 your thermostat sort of registers turn the AC on, cool us off 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 that's exactly how your thyroid works in your body 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 your thyroid tries to keep an optimal temperature for your body 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 if it get too cold your thyroid says we need to heat up, if it gets too hot 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 your thyroid cools you down. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 But what happens when your thyroid is not functioning well ? 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 but when it doesn't functioning then it shows up in your body temperatures 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 they tend to be lower than normal and very erratic. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and so by collecting this data you can find out information about your thyroid. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Now, what is it, if you had a thyroid problem and you went to the doctor, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 your doctor would actually test the amount of thyroid stimulating hormone in your blood. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Fine, but the problem with that test it doesn't tell you how active the hormone is in your body 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 so you may have a lot of hormone present but it might not be actively working 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 to regulate your body temperature. Just by collecting your temperature every day 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 you get information about the condition of your thyroid. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 So what if you don't want to take your temperature every day? I advocate that you do 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 but there's tons of other things you can take 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 you can take your blood pressure, you can take your weight.. yeah, who's excited about 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 taking your weight every day.. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Early on in our marriage Donald had a stuffy nose, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and he had been taking a slu of medications to try to relieve his stuffy nose 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 to no avail. And so that night he comes and he wakes me up and he says 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 "honey, I can't breath out of my nose" 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and I sort of roll over and I looked and I said, well, can you breath out of your mouth? 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And he goes Ah, Ah, yes! but I cant breath out of my nose! 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And so like any good wife, I rushed him to the emergency room 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 at 2 o'clock in the morning 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and the whole time I'm driving and I'm thinking 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 you can't die on my now! we just got married 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 people would think I killed you! 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and so, we get to the ER and the nurse sees us 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and he can't breath out of his nose and so she brings us to the back 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and the doctor says what seems to be the problem and he goes " I can't breath out of my nose" 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and he said, you can't breath out of your nose?" No". 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 but he can breath out of his mouth.. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 OK, he takes a step back and looks at both of us 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and he says sir, I think I know the problem 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 you're having a heart attack, I'm going to order an EKG and a CAT scan for you immediately 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And we are thinking, no no no, it's not a heart attack he can breath 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 just out of his mouth.. no no no 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and so we go back and forth with this doctor because we think it is the incorrect diagnosis 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and he's like no really, it'll be fine, just calm down 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and I'm thinking: how do you calm down? I don't think he's having a heart attack.. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Fortunately for us, this doctor was at the end of the shift 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 this new doctor comes in he sees us clearly distrut with a husband who can't breath 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 out of his nose 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 He starts asking us questions, he says well, do you two exercise? 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 We ride our bikes, we go to the gym.. occasionally. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 we move around, uhm.. he says: what were you doing just before you came here? 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 I'm thinking I was sleeping, honestly, but Ok, what was Donald doing just before he was taken 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 so Donald goes into the slu of medications he was taking and he lists 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 "I took this decongestant, and then I took this nasal spray"... 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and then all of a sudden the light bulb goes off 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and he says, "Oh, you should never mix this decongestant with this nasal spray 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 clogs you up every time. Here, take this one instead", gives us a prescription 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 We're looking at each other and I looked at the doctor 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and I said why is it that it seems you were able to accurately diagnose 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 his condition but this previous doctor wanted to order an EKG and a CAT scan? 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And he looks at us and says" when a 350 pound man walks in the ER 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and says he can't breath, you assume he's having a heart attack 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and you ask questions later" 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 ER doctors are trained to make decisions quickly, but 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 not always accurately. And so had we had 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 some information about our heart health to share with him 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 maybe we would have gotten a better diagnosis the first time 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 I want you to consider the following chart, of systolic blood pressure measurements 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 from October 2010 to July 2012. You'll see that these measurements start 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 in the prehypertension/Hypertension zone, but over about the course of a year and a half 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 they move into the normal zone. This is about the hear rate of a healthy 16 year old. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 What story is this data telling you? 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Obviously is the data from someone who's made a drastic transformation 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and fortunately for us, that person happens to be here today 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 So that 350 pound guy that walked into the ER with me, is now an even sexier and healthier 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 225 pound guy, and that's his blood pressure trace. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Over the course of that year and a half, Donald is eating changed 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and his exercise regimen changed and his heart rate responded, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 his blood pressure responded to that change that he made in his body. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 What's the take home message that I want you to leave with today? 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 By taking ownership of your data, just like we've done 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 just by taking this daily measurements about yourself, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 you become the expert of your body, you become the authority. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 It's not hard to do. You don't have to have a PhD in statistics, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 to be an expert in yourself, you don't have to have a medical degree to be your body's expert. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Medical doctors, they're experts on the population, but you are the expert on yourself. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And so when the two of you come together, when two experts come togehter 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 the two of you are able to make a better decision, than just your doctor alone. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Now that you understand the power of information that you can get 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 through personal data collection, I'd like you all to stand 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and raise your right hand. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Yes, get it up 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 I challenge you, to take ownership of your data, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and today I hereby confer upon you, a TedX associate's degree and elementary statistics 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 with a concentration in time dependent data analysis 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 with all the rights and privileges adverteining there to 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and the next time you are in your doctor's office, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 as newly inducted statisticians, what should always be your response? 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Show me the data! I can't hear you.. Show me the data! one more time.. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Show me the data! Show me the data.. Thank you