[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:00.00,0:00:05.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Once upon a time, there was a dread disease that afflicted children.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:05.00,0:00:09.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And in fact, among all the diseases that existed in this land,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:09.00,0:00:12.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it was the worst. It killed the most children.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:12.00,0:00:15.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And along came a brilliant inventor, a scientist,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:15.00,0:00:18.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who came up with a partial cure for that disease.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:18.00,0:00:22.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it wasn't perfect. Many children still died,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:22.00,0:00:25.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but it was certainly better than what they had before.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:25.00,0:00:31.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And one of the good things about this cure was that it was free,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:31.00,0:00:33.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,virtually free, and was very easy to use.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:33.00,0:00:36.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But the worst thing about it was that you couldn't use it
Dialogue: 0,0:00:36.00,0:00:40.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on the youngest children, on infants, and on one-year-olds.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:40.00,0:00:42.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so, as a consequence, a few years later,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:42.00,0:00:44.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,another scientist -- perhaps maybe this scientist
Dialogue: 0,0:00:44.00,0:00:48.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not quite as brilliant as the one who had preceded him,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:48.00,0:00:50.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but building on the invention of the first one --
Dialogue: 0,0:00:50.00,0:00:53.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,came up with a second cure.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:53.00,0:00:56.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the beauty of the second cure for this disease
Dialogue: 0,0:00:56.00,0:01:00.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was that it could be used on infants and one-year-olds.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:00.00,0:01:05.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the problem with this cure was it was very expensive,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:05.00,0:01:06.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it was very complicated to use.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:06.00,0:01:10.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And although parents tried as hard as they could to use it properly,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:10.00,0:01:14.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,almost all of them ended up using it wrong in the end.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:14.00,0:01:17.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But what they did, of course, since it was so complicated and expensive,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:17.00,0:01:20.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they only used it on the zero-year-olds and the one-year-olds.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:20.00,0:01:23.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And they kept on using the existing cure that they had
Dialogue: 0,0:01:23.00,0:01:24.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on the two-year-olds and up.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:24.00,0:01:26.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And this went on for quite some time. People were happy.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:26.00,0:01:29.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They had their two cures. Until a particular mother,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:29.00,0:01:34.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whose child had just turned two, died of this disease.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:34.00,0:01:38.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And she thought to herself, "My child just turned two,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:38.00,0:01:42.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and until the child turned two, I had always used
Dialogue: 0,0:01:42.00,0:01:47.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this complicated, expensive cure, you know, this treatment.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:47.00,0:01:48.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then the child turned two, and I started using
Dialogue: 0,0:01:48.00,0:01:51.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the cheap and easy treatment, and I wonder" --
Dialogue: 0,0:01:51.00,0:01:53.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and she wondered, like all parents who lose children wonder --
Dialogue: 0,0:01:53.00,0:01:55.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"if there isn't something that I could have done,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:55.00,0:01:59.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,like keep on using that complicated, expensive cure."
Dialogue: 0,0:01:59.00,0:02:02.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And she told all the other people, and she said,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:02.00,0:02:04.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"How could it possibly be that something
Dialogue: 0,0:02:04.00,0:02:07.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's cheap and simple works as well as something
Dialogue: 0,0:02:07.00,0:02:09.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's complicated and expensive?"
Dialogue: 0,0:02:09.00,0:02:11.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the people thought, "You know, you're right.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:11.00,0:02:13.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It probably is the wrong thing to do to switch
Dialogue: 0,0:02:13.00,0:02:16.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and use the cheap and simple solution."
Dialogue: 0,0:02:16.00,0:02:19.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the government, they heard her story and the other people,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:19.00,0:02:22.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they said, "Yeah, you're right, we should make a law.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:22.00,0:02:24.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We should outlaw this cheap and simple treatment
Dialogue: 0,0:02:24.00,0:02:27.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and not let anybody use this on their children."
Dialogue: 0,0:02:27.00,0:02:29.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the people were happy. They were satisfied.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:29.00,0:02:32.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For many years this went along, and everything was fine.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:32.00,0:02:37.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But then along came a lowly economist, who had children himself,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:37.00,0:02:44.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and he used the expensive and complicated treatment.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:44.00,0:02:46.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But he knew about the cheap and simple one.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:46.00,0:02:48.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And he thought about it, and the expensive one
Dialogue: 0,0:02:48.00,0:02:51.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,didn't seem that great to him. So he thought,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:51.00,0:02:54.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"I don't know anything about science, but I do know something about data,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:54.00,0:02:56.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so maybe I should go and look at the data
Dialogue: 0,0:02:56.00,0:03:00.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and see whether this expensive and complicated treatment
Dialogue: 0,0:03:00.00,0:03:03.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,actually works any better than the cheap and simple one."
Dialogue: 0,0:03:03.00,0:03:05.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And lo and behold, when he went through the data,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:05.00,0:03:08.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,he found that it didn't look like the expensive, complicated
Dialogue: 0,0:03:08.00,0:03:11.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,solution was any better than the cheap one,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:11.00,0:03:13.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at least for the children who were two and older --
Dialogue: 0,0:03:13.00,0:03:16.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the cheap one still didn't work on the kids who were younger.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:16.00,0:03:20.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so, he went forth to the people and he said,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:20.00,0:03:22.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"I've made this wonderful finding:
Dialogue: 0,0:03:22.00,0:03:25.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it looks as if we could just use the cheap and simple solution,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:25.00,0:03:28.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and by doing so we could save ourselves 300 million dollars a year,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:28.00,0:03:30.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we could spend that on our children in other ways."
Dialogue: 0,0:03:30.00,0:03:34.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the parents were very unhappy, and they said,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:34.00,0:03:36.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"This is a terrible thing, because how can the cheap and easy thing
Dialogue: 0,0:03:36.00,0:03:40.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,be as good as the hard thing?" And the government was very upset.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:40.00,0:03:43.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And in particular, the people who made this expensive solution
Dialogue: 0,0:03:43.00,0:03:45.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,were very upset because they thought,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:45.00,0:03:48.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"How can we hope to compete with something that's essentially free?
Dialogue: 0,0:03:48.00,0:03:50.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We would lose all of our market."
Dialogue: 0,0:03:50.00,0:03:53.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And people were very angry, and they called him horrible names.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:53.00,0:03:56.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And he decided that maybe he should leave the country
Dialogue: 0,0:03:56.00,0:04:00.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for a few days, and seek out some more intelligent,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:00.00,0:04:03.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,open-minded people in a place called Oxford,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:03.00,0:04:06.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and come and try and tell the story at that place.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:06.00,0:04:10.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so, anyway, here I am. It's not a fairy tale.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:10.00,0:04:12.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's a true story about the United States today,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:12.00,0:04:15.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the disease I'm referring to is actually
Dialogue: 0,0:04:15.00,0:04:18.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,motor vehicle accidents for children.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:18.00,0:04:24.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the free cure is adult seatbelts, and the expensive cure --
Dialogue: 0,0:04:24.00,0:04:28.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the 300-million-dollar-a-year cure -- is child car seats.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:28.00,0:04:30.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And what I'd like to talk to you about today
Dialogue: 0,0:04:30.00,0:04:33.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is some of the evidence why I believe this to be true:
Dialogue: 0,0:04:33.00,0:04:35.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that for children two years old and up,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:35.00,0:04:40.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there really is no real benefit -- proven benefit -- of car seats,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:40.00,0:04:45.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in spite of the incredible energy
Dialogue: 0,0:04:45.00,0:04:48.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that has been devoted toward expanding the laws
Dialogue: 0,0:04:48.00,0:04:50.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and making it socially unacceptable
Dialogue: 0,0:04:50.00,0:04:55.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to put your children into seatbelts. And then talk about why --
Dialogue: 0,0:04:55.00,0:04:56.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what is it that makes that true?
Dialogue: 0,0:04:56.00,0:04:59.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then, finally talk a little bit about a third way,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:59.00,0:05:02.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about another technology, which is probably better than anything we have,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:02.00,0:05:05.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but which -- there hasn't been any enthusiasm for adoption
Dialogue: 0,0:05:05.00,0:05:07.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,precisely because people are so enamored
Dialogue: 0,0:05:07.00,0:05:10.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with the current car seat solution. OK.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:10.00,0:05:13.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, many times when you try to do research on data,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:13.00,0:05:17.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it records complicated stories -- it's hard to find in the data.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:17.00,0:05:20.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It doesn't turn out to be the case when you look at seatbelts versus car seats.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:20.00,0:05:22.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So the United States keeps a data set
Dialogue: 0,0:05:22.00,0:05:25.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of every fatal accident that's happened since 1975.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:25.00,0:05:28.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So in every car crash in which at least one person dies,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:28.00,0:05:30.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they have information on all of the people.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:30.00,0:05:33.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So if you look at that data -- it's right up on the National Highway
Dialogue: 0,0:05:33.00,0:05:35.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Transportation Safety Administration's website --
Dialogue: 0,0:05:35.00,0:05:37.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you can just look at the raw data,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:37.00,0:05:41.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and begin to get a sense of the limited amount of evidence
Dialogue: 0,0:05:41.00,0:05:44.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's in favor of car seats for children aged two and up.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:44.00,0:05:48.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, here is the data. Here I have, among two- to six-year-olds --
Dialogue: 0,0:05:48.00,0:05:50.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,anyone above six, basically no one uses car seats,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:50.00,0:05:56.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so you can't compare -- 29.3 percent of the children who are unrestrained
Dialogue: 0,0:05:56.00,0:06:00.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in a crash in which at least one person dies, themselves die.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:00.00,0:06:05.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you put a child in a car seat, 18.2 percent of the children die.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:05.00,0:06:07.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If they're wearing a lap-and-shoulder belt, in this raw data,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:07.00,0:06:12.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,19.4 percent die. And interestingly, wearing a lap-only seatbelt,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:12.00,0:06:14.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,16.7 percent die. And actually, the theory tells you
Dialogue: 0,0:06:14.00,0:06:17.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that the lap-only seatbelt's got to be worse
Dialogue: 0,0:06:17.00,0:06:18.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than the lap-and-shoulder belt. And that just reminds you
Dialogue: 0,0:06:18.00,0:06:20.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that when you deal with raw data, there are hundreds
Dialogue: 0,0:06:20.00,0:06:23.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of confounding variables that may be getting in the way.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:23.00,0:06:28.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So what we do in the study is -- and this is just presenting
Dialogue: 0,0:06:28.00,0:06:31.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the same information, but turned into a figure to make it easier.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:31.00,0:06:34.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So the yellow bar represents car seats,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:34.00,0:06:38.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the orange bar lap-and-shoulder, and the red bar lap-only seatbelts.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:38.00,0:06:40.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And this is all relative to unrestrained --
Dialogue: 0,0:06:40.00,0:06:41.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the bigger the bar, the better. Okay.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:41.00,0:06:43.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, this is the data I just showed, OK?
Dialogue: 0,0:06:43.00,0:06:46.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So the highest bar is what you're striving to beat.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:46.00,0:06:50.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So you can control for the basic things, like how hard the crash was,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:50.00,0:06:54.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what seat the child was sitting in, etc., the age of the child.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:54.00,0:06:56.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that's that middle set of bars.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:56.00,0:06:59.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so, you can see that the lap-only seatbelts
Dialogue: 0,0:06:59.00,0:07:01.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,start to look worse once you do that.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:01.00,0:07:03.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then finally, the last set of bars,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:03.00,0:07:06.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which are really controlling for everything
Dialogue: 0,0:07:06.00,0:07:08.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you could possibly imagine about the crash,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:08.00,0:07:11.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,50, 75, 100 different characteristics of the crash.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:11.00,0:07:14.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And what you find is that the car seats and the lap-and-shoulder belts,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:14.00,0:07:18.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when it comes to saving lives, fatalities look exactly identical.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:18.00,0:07:22.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the standard error bands are relatively small around these estimates as well.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:22.00,0:07:25.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it's not just overall. It's very robust
Dialogue: 0,0:07:25.00,0:07:27.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to anything you want to look at.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:27.00,0:07:30.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One thing that's interesting: if you look at frontal-impact crashes --
Dialogue: 0,0:07:30.00,0:07:33.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when the car crashes, the front hits into something --
Dialogue: 0,0:07:33.00,0:07:37.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,indeed, what you see is that the car seats look a little bit better.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:37.00,0:07:39.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I think this isn't just chance.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:39.00,0:07:40.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In order to have the car seat approved,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:40.00,0:07:43.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you need to pass certain federal standards,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:43.00,0:07:48.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,all of which involve slamming your car into a direct frontal crash.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:48.00,0:07:50.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But when you look at other types of crashes, like rear-impact crashes,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:50.00,0:07:53.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,indeed, the car seats don't perform as well.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:53.00,0:07:55.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I think that's because they've been optimized to pass,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:55.00,0:07:57.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as we always expect people to do,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:57.00,0:07:59.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to optimize relative to bright-line rules
Dialogue: 0,0:07:59.00,0:08:03.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about how affected the car will be.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:03.00,0:08:04.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the other thing you might argue is,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:04.00,0:08:06.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Well, car seats have got a lot better over time.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:06.00,0:08:09.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so if we look at recent crashes --
Dialogue: 0,0:08:09.00,0:08:11.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the whole data set is almost 30 years' worth of data --
Dialogue: 0,0:08:11.00,0:08:13.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you won't see it in the recent crashes. The new car seats are far, far better."
Dialogue: 0,0:08:13.00,0:08:17.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But indeed, in recent crashes the lap-and-shoulder seatbelts,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:17.00,0:08:20.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,actually, are doing even better than the car seats.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:20.00,0:08:23.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They say, "Well, that's impossible, that can't be."
Dialogue: 0,0:08:23.00,0:08:25.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the line of argument, if you ask parents, is,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:25.00,0:08:28.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"But car seats are so expensive and complicated,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:28.00,0:08:31.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they have this big tangle of latches,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:31.00,0:08:34.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how could they possibly not work better than seatbelts
Dialogue: 0,0:08:34.00,0:08:36.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because they are so expensive and complicated?"
Dialogue: 0,0:08:36.00,0:08:39.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's kind of an interesting logic,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:39.00,0:08:42.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think, that people use. And the other logic, they say,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:42.00,0:08:44.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Well, the government wouldn't have told us [to] use them
Dialogue: 0,0:08:44.00,0:08:46.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if they weren't much better."
Dialogue: 0,0:08:46.00,0:08:48.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But what's interesting is the government telling us to use them
Dialogue: 0,0:08:48.00,0:08:50.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is not actually based on very much.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:50.00,0:08:53.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It really is based on some impassioned pleas of parents
Dialogue: 0,0:08:53.00,0:08:56.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whose children died after they turned two,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:56.00,0:09:00.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which has led to the passage of all these laws -- not very much on data.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:00.00,0:09:04.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So you can only get so far, I think, in telling your story
Dialogue: 0,0:09:04.00,0:09:06.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by using these abstract statistics.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:06.00,0:09:11.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so I had some friends over to dinner, and I was asking --
Dialogue: 0,0:09:11.00,0:09:14.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we had a cookout -- I was asking them what advice they might have for me
Dialogue: 0,0:09:14.00,0:09:18.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about proving my point. They said, "Why don't you run some crash tests?"
Dialogue: 0,0:09:18.00,0:09:20.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I said, "That's a great idea."
Dialogue: 0,0:09:20.00,0:09:22.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So we actually tried to commission some crash tests.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:22.00,0:09:27.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it turns out that as we called around to the independent
Dialogue: 0,0:09:27.00,0:09:30.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,crash test companies around the country,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:30.00,0:09:32.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,none of them wanted to do our crash test
Dialogue: 0,0:09:32.00,0:09:36.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because they said, some explicitly, some not so explicitly,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:36.00,0:09:38.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"All of our business comes from car seat manufacturers.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:38.00,0:09:42.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We can't risk alienating them by testing seatbelts relative to car seats."
Dialogue: 0,0:09:42.00,0:09:46.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, eventually, one did. Under the conditions of anonymity,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:46.00,0:09:49.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they said they would be happy to do this test for us --
Dialogue: 0,0:09:49.00,0:09:54.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so anonymity, and 1,500 dollars per seat that we crashed.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:54.00,0:09:56.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so, we went to Buffalo, New York,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:56.00,0:09:58.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and here is the precursor to it.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:58.00,0:10:00.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These are the crash test dummies,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:00.00,0:10:03.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,waiting for their chance to take the center stage.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:03.00,0:10:05.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then, here's how the crash test works.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:05.00,0:10:08.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Here, they don't actually crash the entire car, you know --
Dialogue: 0,0:10:08.00,0:10:11.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's not worth ruining a whole car to do it.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:11.00,0:10:12.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So they just have these bench seats,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:12.00,0:10:14.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they strap the car seat and the seatbelt onto it.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:14.00,0:10:16.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I just wanted you to look at this.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:16.00,0:10:18.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I think this gives you a good idea of why parents think
Dialogue: 0,0:10:18.00,0:10:20.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,car seats are so great. Look at the kid in the car seat.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:20.00,0:10:23.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Does he not look content, ready to go,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:23.00,0:10:25.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,like he could survive anything? And then, if you look at the kid in back,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:25.00,0:10:28.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it looks like he's already choking before the crash even happens.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:28.00,0:10:31.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's hard to believe, when you look at this, that
Dialogue: 0,0:10:31.00,0:10:33.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that kid in back is going to do very well when you get in a crash.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:33.00,0:10:35.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So this is going to be a crash
Dialogue: 0,0:10:35.00,0:10:38.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where they're going to slam this thing forward into a wall
Dialogue: 0,0:10:38.00,0:10:41.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at 30 miles an hour, and see what happens. OK?
Dialogue: 0,0:10:41.00,0:10:43.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, let me show you what happens.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:43.00,0:10:46.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These are three-year-old dummies, by the way.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:46.00,0:10:48.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So here -- this is the car seat. Now watch two things:
Dialogue: 0,0:10:48.00,0:10:50.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,watch how the head goes forward,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:50.00,0:10:52.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and basically hits the knees -- and this is in the car seat --
Dialogue: 0,0:10:52.00,0:10:57.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and watch how the car seat flies around, in the rebound, up in the air.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:57.00,0:10:59.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The car seat's moving all over the place.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:59.00,0:11:01.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Bear in mind there are two things about this.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:01.00,0:11:04.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is a car seat that was installed by someone
Dialogue: 0,0:11:04.00,0:11:07.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who has installed 1,000 car seats, who knew exactly how to do it.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:07.00,0:11:08.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And also it turned out these bench seats
Dialogue: 0,0:11:08.00,0:11:11.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are the very best way to install car seats.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:11.00,0:11:14.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Having a flat back makes it much easier to install them.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:14.00,0:11:17.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so this is a test that's very much rigged in favor of the car seat,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:17.00,0:11:20.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,OK? So, that kid in this crash fared very well.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:20.00,0:11:22.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The federal standards are
Dialogue: 0,0:11:22.00,0:11:24.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that you have to score below a 1,000
Dialogue: 0,0:11:24.00,0:11:26.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to be an approved car seat on this crash,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:26.00,0:11:30.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in some metric of units which are not important.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:30.00,0:11:33.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And this crash would have been about a 450.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:33.00,0:11:35.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So this car seat was actually an above-average car seat
Dialogue: 0,0:11:35.00,0:11:37.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from Consumer Reports, and did quite well.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:37.00,0:11:40.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So the next one. Now, this is the kid, same crash,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:40.00,0:11:45.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who is in the seatbelt. He hardly moves at all, actually,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:45.00,0:11:48.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,relative to the other child. The funny thing is,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:48.00,0:11:51.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the cam work is terrible because they've only set it up
Dialogue: 0,0:11:51.00,0:11:53.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to do the car seats, and so, they actually don't even have a way
Dialogue: 0,0:11:53.00,0:11:55.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to move the camera so you can see the kid that's on the rebound.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:55.00,0:11:59.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Anyway, it turns out that those two crashes, that actually
Dialogue: 0,0:11:59.00,0:12:03.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the three-year-old did slightly worse. So, he gets about a 500
Dialogue: 0,0:12:03.00,0:12:07.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,out of -- you know, on this range -- relative to a 400 and something.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:07.00,0:12:10.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But still, if you just took that data from that crash
Dialogue: 0,0:12:10.00,0:12:13.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to the federal government, and said, "I have invented a new car seat.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:13.00,0:12:16.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I would like you to approve it for selling,"
Dialogue: 0,0:12:16.00,0:12:19.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then they would say, "This is a fantastic new car seat, it works great.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:19.00,0:12:21.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It only got a 500, it could have gotten as high up as a 1,000."
Dialogue: 0,0:12:21.00,0:12:24.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And this seatbelt would have passed with flying colors
Dialogue: 0,0:12:24.00,0:12:26.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,into being approved as a car seat.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:26.00,0:12:28.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, in some sense, what this is suggesting
Dialogue: 0,0:12:28.00,0:12:31.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that it's not just that people are setting up their car seats wrong,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:31.00,0:12:33.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is putting children at risk. It's just that, fundamentally,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:33.00,0:12:35.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the car seats aren't doing much.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:35.00,0:12:37.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So here's the crash. So these are timed at the same time,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:37.00,0:12:39.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so you can see that it takes much longer with the car seat --
Dialogue: 0,0:12:39.00,0:12:41.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at rebound, it takes a lot longer --
Dialogue: 0,0:12:41.00,0:12:45.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but there's just a lot less movement for child who's in the seatbelt.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:45.00,0:12:47.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, I'll show you the six-year-old crashes as well.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:47.00,0:12:52.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The six-year-old is in a car seat, and it turns out
Dialogue: 0,0:12:52.00,0:12:57.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that looks terrible, but that's great. That's like a 400, OK?
Dialogue: 0,0:12:57.00,0:12:58.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So that kid would do fine in the crash.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:58.00,0:13:02.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Nothing about that would have been problematic to the child at all.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:02.00,0:13:05.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then here's the six-year-old in the seatbelt,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:05.00,0:13:07.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and in fact, they get exactly within, you know,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:07.00,0:13:11.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,within one or two points of the same. So really, for the six-year-old,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:11.00,0:13:15.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the car seat did absolutely nothing whatsoever.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:15.00,0:13:18.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's some more evidence, so in some sense --
Dialogue: 0,0:13:18.00,0:13:22.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I was criticized by a scientist, who said, "You could never publish
Dialogue: 0,0:13:22.00,0:13:24.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a study with an n of 4," meaning those four crashes.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:24.00,0:13:28.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I wrote him back and I said, "What about an n of 45,004?"
Dialogue: 0,0:13:28.00,0:13:30.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because I had the other 45,000 other real-world crashes.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:30.00,0:13:34.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I just think that it's interesting that the idea
Dialogue: 0,0:13:34.00,0:13:36.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of using real-world crashes, which is very much something
Dialogue: 0,0:13:36.00,0:13:38.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that economists think would be the right thing to do,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:38.00,0:13:40.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is something that scientists don't actually, usually think --
Dialogue: 0,0:13:40.00,0:13:43.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they would rather use a laboratory,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:43.00,0:13:45.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a very imperfect science of looking at the dummies,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:45.00,0:13:49.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than actually 30 years of data of what we've seen
Dialogue: 0,0:13:49.00,0:13:52.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with children and with car seats.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:52.00,0:13:56.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so I think the answer to this puzzle
Dialogue: 0,0:13:56.00,0:13:59.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that there's a much better solution out there,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:59.00,0:14:02.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's gotten nobody excited because everyone
Dialogue: 0,0:14:02.00,0:14:06.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is so delighted with the way car seats are presumably working.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:06.00,0:14:09.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And if you think from a design perspective,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:09.00,0:14:11.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about going back to square one, and say,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:11.00,0:14:13.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"I just want to protect kids in the back seat."
Dialogue: 0,0:14:13.00,0:14:15.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I don't there's anyone in this room who'd say,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:15.00,0:14:16.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Well, the right way to start would be,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:16.00,0:14:19.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,let's make a great seat belt for adults.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:19.00,0:14:21.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then, let's make this really big contraption
Dialogue: 0,0:14:21.00,0:14:24.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that you have to rig up to it in this daisy chain."
Dialogue: 0,0:14:24.00,0:14:27.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I mean, why not start -- who's sitting in the back seat anyway except for kids?
Dialogue: 0,0:14:27.00,0:14:30.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But essentially, do something like this,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:30.00,0:14:32.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which I don't know exactly how much it would cost to do,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:32.00,0:14:33.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but there's no reason I could see
Dialogue: 0,0:14:33.00,0:14:35.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,why this should be much more expensive than a regular car seat.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:35.00,0:14:39.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's just actually -- you see, this is folding up -- it's behind the seat.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:39.00,0:14:41.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You've got a regular seat for adults, and then you fold it down,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:41.00,0:14:43.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the kid sits on top, and it's integrated.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:43.00,0:14:47.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It seems to me that this can't be a very expensive solution,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:47.00,0:14:50.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it's got to work better than what we already have.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:50.00,0:14:55.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So the question is, is there any hope for adoption of something like this,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:55.00,0:14:57.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which would presumably save a lot of lives?
Dialogue: 0,0:14:57.00,0:15:01.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I think the answer, perhaps, lies in a story.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:01.00,0:15:05.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The answer both to why has a car seat been so successful,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:05.00,0:15:08.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and why this may someday be adopted or not,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:08.00,0:15:12.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,lies in a story that my dad told me, relating to when he was a doctor
Dialogue: 0,0:15:12.00,0:15:15.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the U.S. Air Force in England. And this is a long time ago:
Dialogue: 0,0:15:15.00,0:15:17.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you were allowed to do things then you can't do today.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:17.00,0:15:21.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, my father would have patients come in
Dialogue: 0,0:15:21.00,0:15:24.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who he thought were not really sick.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:24.00,0:15:28.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And he had a big jar full of placebo pills that he would give them,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:28.00,0:15:31.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and he'd say, "Come back in a week, if you still feel lousy."
Dialogue: 0,0:15:31.00,0:15:32.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,OK, and most of them would not come back,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:32.00,0:15:34.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but some of them would come back.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:34.00,0:15:38.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And when they came back, he, still convinced they were not sick,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:38.00,0:15:43.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,had another jar of pills. In this jar were huge horse pills.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:43.00,0:15:45.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They were almost impossible to swallow.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:45.00,0:15:49.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And these, to me, are the analogy for the car seats.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:49.00,0:15:53.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,People would look at these and say, "Man, this thing is so big
Dialogue: 0,0:15:53.00,0:15:55.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and so hard to swallow. If this doesn't make me feel better,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:55.00,0:15:58.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you know, what possibly could?"
Dialogue: 0,0:15:58.00,0:16:00.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it turned out that most people wouldn't come back,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:00.00,0:16:03.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because it worked. But every once in a while,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:03.00,0:16:08.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there was still a patient convinced that he was sick,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:08.00,0:16:11.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and he'd come back. And my dad had a third jar of pills.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:11.00,0:16:13.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the jar of pills he had, he said,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:13.00,0:16:16.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,were the tiniest little pills he could find,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:16.00,0:16:18.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so small you could barely see them.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:18.00,0:16:20.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And he would say, listen, I know I gave you that huge pill,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:20.00,0:16:24.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that complicated, hard-to-swallow pill before,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:24.00,0:16:26.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but now I've got one that's so potent,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:26.00,0:16:28.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that is really tiny and small and almost invisible.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:28.00,0:16:31.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's almost like this thing here, which you can't even see."
Dialogue: 0,0:16:31.00,0:16:33.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it turned out that never,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:33.00,0:16:36.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in all the times my dad gave out this pill, the really tiny pill,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:36.00,0:16:39.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,did anyone ever come back still complaining of sickness.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:39.00,0:16:42.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, my dad always took that as evidence
Dialogue: 0,0:16:42.00,0:16:46.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that this little, teeny, powerful pill
Dialogue: 0,0:16:46.00,0:16:50.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,had the ultimate placebo effect. And in some sense, if that's the right story,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:50.00,0:16:52.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think integrated car seats you will see, very quickly,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:52.00,0:16:56.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,becoming something that everyone has. The other possible conclusion
Dialogue: 0,0:16:56.00,0:16:59.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is, well, maybe after coming to my father three times,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:59.00,0:17:01.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,getting sent home with placebos, he still felt sick,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:01.00,0:17:03.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,he went and found another doctor.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:03.00,0:17:05.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that's completely possible. And if that's the case,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:05.00,0:17:08.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then I think we're stuck with conventional car seats for a long time to come.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:08.00,0:17:09.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thank you very much.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:09.00,0:17:13.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)
Dialogue: 0,0:17:13.00,0:17:15.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Audience: I just wanted to ask you, when we wear seatbelts
Dialogue: 0,0:17:15.00,0:17:18.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we don't necessarily wear them just to prevent loss of life,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:18.00,0:17:20.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's also to prevent lots of serious injury.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:20.00,0:17:24.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Your data looks at fatalities. It doesn't look at serious injury.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:24.00,0:17:26.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Is there any data to show that child seats
Dialogue: 0,0:17:26.00,0:17:29.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are actually less effective, or just as effective as seatbelts
Dialogue: 0,0:17:29.00,0:17:31.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for serious injury? Because that would prove your case.)
Dialogue: 0,0:17:31.00,0:17:34.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Steven Levitt: Yeah, that's a great question. In my data, and in another data set
Dialogue: 0,0:17:34.00,0:17:37.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I've looked at for New Jersey crashes,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:37.00,0:17:41.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I find very small differences in injury.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:41.00,0:17:43.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So in this data, it's statistically insignificant differences
Dialogue: 0,0:17:43.00,0:17:47.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in injury between car seats and lap-and-shoulder belts.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:47.00,0:17:48.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In the New Jersey data, which is different,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:48.00,0:17:51.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because it's not just fatal crashes,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:51.00,0:17:53.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but all crashes in New Jersey that are reported,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:53.00,0:17:56.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it turns out that there is a 10 percent difference in injuries,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:56.00,0:17:58.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but generally they're the minor injuries.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:58.00,0:18:00.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, what's interesting, I should say this as a disclaimer,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:00.00,0:18:05.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there is medical literature that is very difficult to resolve with this other data,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:05.00,0:18:09.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which suggests that car seats are dramatically better.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:09.00,0:18:11.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And they use a completely different methodology that involves --
Dialogue: 0,0:18:11.00,0:18:14.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,after the crash occurs, they get from the insurance companies
Dialogue: 0,0:18:14.00,0:18:16.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the names of the people who were in the crash,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:16.00,0:18:17.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they call them on the phone,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:17.00,0:18:18.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they asked them what happened.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:18.00,0:18:21.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I really can't resolve, yet,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:21.00,0:18:23.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I'd like to work with these medical researchers
Dialogue: 0,0:18:23.00,0:18:26.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to try to understand how there can be these differences,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:26.00,0:18:29.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which are completely at odds with one another.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:29.00,0:18:32.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But it's obviously a critical question.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:32.00,0:18:35.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The question is even if -- are there enough serious injuries
Dialogue: 0,0:18:35.00,0:18:38.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to make these cost-effective? It's kind of tricky.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:38.00,0:18:40.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Even if they're right, it's not so clear
Dialogue: 0,0:18:40.00,0:18:41.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that they're so cost-effective.