WEBVTT 00:00:00.239 --> 00:00:05.110 - [讲解员] 从因到果之路 黑暗又凶险 00:00:05.572 --> 00:00:08.974 但我们拥有 计量经济学的强大武器 00:00:09.941 --> 00:00:14.824 请看，这就是威力最强的 随机分配之剑 00:00:14.824 --> 00:00:18.108 它直逼因果问题的核心 00:00:22.971 --> 00:00:27.737 我们先来看看我们手中 最强大也最昂贵的武器 -- 00:00:27.737 --> 00:00:29.558 随机试验 00:00:29.558 --> 00:00:30.828 - [学生] 太棒了 NOTE Paragraph 00:00:30.828 --> 00:00:34.839 - 每种计量方法的使命 都始于因果问题 00:00:34.893 --> 00:00:37.842 清晰的问题 才能带来清晰的答案 00:00:38.955 --> 00:00:42.709 而随机试验能够提供 最清晰的答案 00:00:43.623 --> 00:00:47.592 我们来看看 随机试验是如何 00:00:47.712 --> 00:00:51.328 对因果问题给出 格外有说服力的答案的 00:00:52.012 --> 00:00:55.528 - [Josh] 正如一把精心打磨的宝剑 00:00:55.528 --> 00:00:57.805 随机试验直指因果问题的核心 00:00:57.805 --> 00:01:00.912 它能用来创造 深具说服力的同类比较 00:01:01.092 --> 00:01:03.921 但就像其他精心制造的武器一样 00:01:03.921 --> 00:01:07.195 随机试验十分昂贵 运用起来耗时也很久 00:01:08.041 --> 00:01:11.555 - 随机试验起源于医学研究 00:01:11.555 --> 00:01:16.362 当时被称为随机化临床试验 简称 RCT 00:01:17.245 --> 00:01:21.359 美国食品药品监督管理局规定 00:01:21.359 --> 00:01:24.932 制药厂必须证明 00:01:24.932 --> 00:01:26.331 新药或新疗法的安全性和有效性 00:01:26.981 --> 00:01:30.025 他们的做法就是 开展一系列 RCT 00:01:30.440 --> 00:01:35.275 所以我们说随机试验测量的是 “治疗”效果 00:01:35.936 --> 00:01:38.269 00:01:38.269 --> 00:01:39.733 00:01:39.733 --> 00:01:43.102 00:01:43.102 --> 00:01:45.699 00:01:45.699 --> 00:01:50.480 00:01:50.480 --> 00:01:51.624 00:01:51.624 --> 00:01:53.071 00:01:53.071 --> 00:01:56.553 00:01:56.553 --> 00:01:59.679 00:01:59.679 --> 00:02:01.718 00:02:01.718 --> 00:02:04.519 00:02:04.519 --> 00:02:06.584 00:02:07.210 --> 00:02:09.883 00:02:09.883 --> 00:02:13.833 00:02:14.216 --> 00:02:15.433 00:02:21.543 --> 00:02:23.776 00:02:23.776 --> 00:02:26.760 00:02:26.760 --> 00:02:30.734 00:02:30.734 --> 00:02:33.209 00:02:33.209 --> 00:02:36.426 00:02:37.207 --> 00:02:39.183 00:02:39.183 --> 00:02:42.034 00:02:42.735 --> 00:02:45.501 00:02:45.501 --> 00:02:48.851 00:02:48.851 --> 00:02:51.852 00:02:53.325 --> 00:02:55.909 00:02:55.909 --> 00:02:59.506 00:02:59.506 --> 00:03:02.762 00:03:03.179 --> 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