0:00:00.714,0:00:03.810
Back in 2003,

0:00:03.834,0:00:06.343
the UK government carried out a survey.

0:00:07.494,0:00:10.643
And it was a survey that measured[br]levels of numeracy

0:00:10.667,0:00:11.904
in the population.

0:00:11.928,0:00:13.571
And they were shocked to find out

0:00:13.595,0:00:16.959
that for every 100 working age[br]adults in the country,

0:00:16.983,0:00:20.484
47 of them lacked Level 1 numeracy skills.

0:00:20.892,0:00:25.004
Now, Level 1 numeracy skills --[br]that's low-end GCSE score.

0:00:25.410,0:00:28.658
It's the ability to deal with fractions,[br]percentages and decimals.

0:00:28.682,0:00:33.310
So this figure prompted[br]a lot of hand-wringing in Whitehall.

0:00:33.334,0:00:34.962
Policies were changed,

0:00:34.986,0:00:36.708
investments were made

0:00:36.732,0:00:39.770
and then they ran[br]the survey again in 2011.

0:00:39.794,0:00:41.999
So can you guess[br]what happened to this number?

0:00:44.021,0:00:45.465
It went up to 49.

0:00:45.489,0:00:46.938
(Laughter)

0:00:46.962,0:00:49.411
And in fact, when I reported[br]this figure in the FT,

0:00:49.435,0:00:51.106
one of our readers joked and said,

0:00:51.130,0:00:54.891
"This figure is only shocking[br]to 51 percent of the population."

0:00:54.915,0:00:57.201
(Laughter)

0:00:57.225,0:01:00.382
But I preferred, actually,[br]the reaction of a schoolchild

0:01:00.406,0:01:03.501
when I presented[br]at a school this information,

0:01:03.525,0:01:05.056
who raised their hand and said,

0:01:05.080,0:01:07.596
"How do we know that the person[br]who made that number

0:01:07.620,0:01:09.435
isn't one of the 49 percent either?"

0:01:09.459,0:01:10.713
(Laughter)

0:01:10.737,0:01:14.787
So clearly, there's a numeracy issue,

0:01:14.811,0:01:16.921
because these are[br]important skills for life,

0:01:16.945,0:01:20.812
and a lot of the changes[br]that we want to introduce in this century

0:01:20.836,0:01:23.277
involve us becoming[br]more comfortable with numbers.

0:01:23.301,0:01:25.149
Now, it's not just an English problem.

0:01:25.173,0:01:30.103
OECD this year released some figures[br]looking at numeracy in young people,

0:01:30.127,0:01:32.907
and leading the way, the USA --

0:01:32.931,0:01:37.601
nearly 40 percent of young people[br]in the US have low numeracy.

0:01:37.625,0:01:38.922
Now, England is there too,

0:01:38.946,0:01:44.479
but there are seven OECD countries[br]with figures above 20 percent.

0:01:44.503,0:01:47.262
That is a problem,[br]because it doesn't have to be that way.

0:01:47.286,0:01:49.294
If you look at the far end of this graph,

0:01:49.318,0:01:52.278
you can see the Netherlands and Korea[br]are in single figures.

0:01:52.302,0:01:56.718
So there's definitely a numeracy[br]problem that we want to address.

0:01:57.510,0:02:00.440
Now, as useful as studies like these are,

0:02:00.464,0:02:05.864
I think we risk herding people[br]inadvertently into one of two categories;

0:02:05.888,0:02:07.664
that there are two kinds of people:

0:02:07.688,0:02:12.037
those people that are comfortable[br]with numbers, that can do numbers,

0:02:12.061,0:02:14.297
and the people who can't.

0:02:14.321,0:02:16.422
And what I'm trying[br]to talk about here today

0:02:16.446,0:02:19.488
is to say that I believe[br]that is a false dichotomy.

0:02:19.512,0:02:21.380
It's not an immutable pairing.

0:02:21.404,0:02:25.052
I think you don't have to have[br]tremendously high levels of numeracy

0:02:25.076,0:02:26.804
to be inspired by numbers,

0:02:26.828,0:02:29.937
and that should be the starting point[br]to the journey ahead.

0:02:30.387,0:02:34.698
And one of the ways in which[br]we can begin that journey, for me,

0:02:34.722,0:02:36.448
is looking at statistics.

0:02:36.472,0:02:39.967
Now, I am the first to acknowledge[br]that statistics has got somewhat

0:02:39.991,0:02:41.309
of an image problem.

0:02:41.333,0:02:42.380
(Laughter)

0:02:42.404,0:02:43.936
It's the part of mathematics

0:02:43.960,0:02:47.019
that even mathematicians[br]don't particularly like,

0:02:47.043,0:02:51.055
because whereas the rest of maths[br]is all about precision and certainty,

0:02:51.079,0:02:53.363
statistics is almost the reverse of that.

0:02:53.793,0:02:58.448
But actually, I was a late convert[br]to the world of statistics myself.

0:02:58.472,0:03:00.554
If you'd asked my undergraduate professors

0:03:00.578,0:03:05.337
what two subjects would I be least likely[br]to excel in after university,

0:03:05.361,0:03:08.128
they'd have told you statistics[br]and computer programming,

0:03:08.152,0:03:11.091
and yet here I am, about to show you[br]some statistical graphics

0:03:11.115,0:03:12.317
that I programmed.

0:03:12.745,0:03:14.500
So what inspired that change in me?

0:03:14.524,0:03:18.172
What made me think that statistics[br]was actually an interesting thing?

0:03:18.196,0:03:20.462
It's really because[br]statistics are about us.

0:03:20.869,0:03:23.451
If you look at the etymology[br]of the word statistics,

0:03:23.475,0:03:26.084
it's the science of dealing with data

0:03:26.108,0:03:28.538
about the state or the community[br]that we live in.

0:03:28.562,0:03:31.916
So statistics are about us as a group,

0:03:31.940,0:03:33.615
not us as individuals.

0:03:33.639,0:03:35.109
And I think as social animals,

0:03:35.133,0:03:39.077
we share this fascination about how[br]we as individuals relate to our groups,

0:03:39.101,0:03:40.489
to our peers.

0:03:40.513,0:03:43.623
And statistics in this way[br]are at their most powerful

0:03:43.647,0:03:44.948
when they surprise us.

0:03:45.477,0:03:48.684
And there's been some really wonderful[br]surveys carried out recently

0:03:48.708,0:03:50.422
by Ipsos MORI the last few years.

0:03:50.446,0:03:53.154
They did a survey of over[br]1,000 adults in the UK,

0:03:53.178,0:03:56.958
and said, for every 100 people[br]in England and Wales,

0:03:56.982,0:03:58.852
how many of them are Muslim?

0:03:58.876,0:04:01.522
Now the average answer from this survey,

0:04:01.546,0:04:04.958
which was supposed to be representative[br]of the total population, was 24.

0:04:04.982,0:04:08.658
That's what people thought.

0:04:08.682,0:04:12.321
British people think 24 out of every 100[br]people in the country are Muslim.

0:04:12.345,0:04:16.755
Now, official figures reveal[br]that figure to be about five.

0:04:17.732,0:04:21.719
So there's this big variation[br]between what we think, our perception,

0:04:21.743,0:04:23.781
and the reality as given by statistics.

0:04:23.805,0:04:25.349
And I think that's interesting.

0:04:25.373,0:04:28.663
What could possibly be causing[br]that misperception?

0:04:29.212,0:04:31.066
And I was so thrilled with this study,

0:04:31.090,0:04:34.570
I started to take questions out[br]in presentations. I was referring to it.

0:04:34.594,0:04:35.812
Now, I did a presentation

0:04:35.836,0:04:38.146
at St. Paul's School for Girls[br]in Hammersmith,

0:04:38.170,0:04:40.310
and I had an audience rather like this,

0:04:40.334,0:04:44.202
except it was comprised entirely[br]of sixth-form girls.

0:04:44.226,0:04:46.622
And I said, "Girls,

0:04:47.598,0:04:52.141
how many teenage girls do you think[br]the British public think

0:04:52.165,0:04:53.913
get pregnant every year?"

0:04:53.937,0:04:56.613
And the girls were apoplectic when I said

0:04:57.453,0:05:01.366
the British public think that 15[br]out of every 100 teenage girls

0:05:01.390,0:05:02.683
get pregnant in the year.

0:05:03.429,0:05:05.660
And they had every right to be angry,

0:05:05.684,0:05:08.442
because in fact, I'd have to have[br]closer to 200 dots

0:05:08.466,0:05:10.036
before I could color one in,

0:05:10.060,0:05:12.575
in terms of what[br]the official figures tell us.

0:05:12.599,0:05:16.399
And rather like numeracy,[br]this is not just an English problem.

0:05:16.423,0:05:20.927
Ipsos MORI expanded the survey[br]in recent years to go across the world.

0:05:20.951,0:05:23.901
And so, they asked Saudi Arabians,

0:05:23.925,0:05:26.446
for every 100 adults in your country,

0:05:26.470,0:05:29.343
how many of them are overweight or obese?

0:05:30.526,0:05:35.859
And the average answer from the Saudis[br]was just over a quarter.

0:05:36.402,0:05:37.604
That's what they thought.

0:05:37.628,0:05:40.196
Just over a quarter of adults[br]are overweight or obese.

0:05:40.220,0:05:45.001
The official figures show, actually,[br]it's nearer to three-quarters.

0:05:45.025,0:05:46.481
(Laughter)

0:05:46.505,0:05:48.797
So again, a big variation.

0:05:48.821,0:05:53.267
And I love this one: they asked in Japan,[br]they asked the Japanese,

0:05:53.291,0:05:55.251
for every 100 Japanese people,

0:05:55.275,0:05:57.876
how many of them live in rural areas?

0:05:58.521,0:06:03.422
The average was about a 50-50 split,[br]just over halfway.

0:06:03.446,0:06:07.593
They thought 56 out of every 100[br]Japanese people lived in rural areas.

0:06:07.617,0:06:09.304
The official figure is seven.

0:06:10.259,0:06:14.709
So extraordinary variations,[br]and surprising to some,

0:06:14.733,0:06:17.122
but not surprising to people[br]who have read the work

0:06:17.146,0:06:21.538
of Daniel Kahneman, for example,[br]the Nobel-winning economist.

0:06:21.562,0:06:26.654
He and his colleague, Amos Tversky,[br]spent years researching this disjoint

0:06:26.678,0:06:29.823
between what people perceive[br]and the reality,

0:06:29.847,0:06:33.598
the fact that people are actually[br]pretty poor intuitive statisticians.

0:06:33.622,0:06:35.382
And there are many reasons for this.

0:06:35.406,0:06:38.521
Individual experiences, certainly,[br]can influence our perceptions,

0:06:38.545,0:06:42.503
but so, too, can things like the media[br]reporting things by exception,

0:06:42.527,0:06:44.223
rather than what's normal.

0:06:44.855,0:06:46.981
Kahneman had a nice way[br]of referring to that.

0:06:47.005,0:06:49.090
He said, "We can be blind[br]to the obvious" --

0:06:49.114,0:06:50.752
so we've got the numbers wrong --

0:06:50.776,0:06:53.098
"but we can be blind[br]to our blindness about it."

0:06:53.122,0:06:56.388
And that has enormous[br]repercussions for decision making.

0:06:56.412,0:06:59.264
So at the statistics office[br]while this was all going on,

0:06:59.288,0:07:01.200
I thought this was really interesting.

0:07:01.224,0:07:03.234
I said, this is clearly a global problem,

0:07:03.258,0:07:05.693
but maybe geography is the issue here.

0:07:05.717,0:07:09.626
These were questions that were all about,[br]how well do you know your country?

0:07:09.650,0:07:13.643
So in this case, it's how well[br]do you know 64 million people?

0:07:13.667,0:07:16.399
Not very well, it turns out.[br]I can't do that.

0:07:16.423,0:07:17.747
So I had an idea,

0:07:17.771,0:07:20.894
which was to think about[br]this same sort of approach

0:07:20.918,0:07:23.023
but to think about it[br]in a very local sense.

0:07:23.047,0:07:24.238
Is this a local?

0:07:24.262,0:07:26.203
If we reframe the questions and say,

0:07:26.227,0:07:28.349
how well do you know your local area,

0:07:28.373,0:07:30.476
would your answers be any more accurate?

0:07:31.817,0:07:33.579
So I devised a quiz:

0:07:33.603,0:07:35.462
How well do you know your area?

0:07:36.454,0:07:38.343
It's a simple Web app.

0:07:38.367,0:07:39.550
You put in a post code

0:07:39.574,0:07:42.281
and then it will ask you questions[br]based on census data

0:07:42.305,0:07:43.844
for your local area.

0:07:44.305,0:07:46.428
And I was very conscious[br]in designing this.

0:07:46.452,0:07:50.561
I wanted to make it open[br]to the widest possible range of people,

0:07:50.585,0:07:53.413
not just the 49 percent[br]who can get the numbers.

0:07:53.437,0:07:55.192
I wanted everyone to engage with it.

0:07:55.216,0:07:56.741
So for the design of the quiz,

0:07:56.765,0:08:00.380
I was inspired by the isotypes

0:08:00.404,0:08:03.006
of Otto Neurath from the 1920s and '30s.

0:08:03.030,0:08:07.378
Now, these are methods[br]for representing numbers

0:08:07.402,0:08:09.175
using repeating icons.

0:08:09.640,0:08:12.805
And the numbers are there,[br]but they sit in the background.

0:08:12.829,0:08:15.552
So it's a great way[br]of representing quantity

0:08:15.576,0:08:18.560
without resorting to using terms[br]like "percentage,"

0:08:18.584,0:08:19.814
"fractions" and "ratios."

0:08:19.838,0:08:21.540
So here's the quiz.

0:08:22.310,0:08:23.957
The layout of the quiz is,

0:08:23.981,0:08:26.800
you have your repeating icons[br]on the left-hand side there,

0:08:26.824,0:08:29.947
and a map showing you the area[br]we're asking you questions about

0:08:29.971,0:08:31.138
on the right-hand side.

0:08:31.162,0:08:32.443
There are seven questions.

0:08:32.467,0:08:36.360
Each question, there's a possible answer[br]between zero and a hundred,

0:08:36.384,0:08:37.733
and at the end of the quiz,

0:08:37.757,0:08:40.975
you get an overall score[br]between zero and a hundred.

0:08:40.999,0:08:43.083
And so because this is TEDxExeter,

0:08:43.107,0:08:45.432
I thought we would have[br]a quick look at the quiz

0:08:45.456,0:08:47.765
for the first few questions of Exeter.

0:08:47.789,0:08:49.194
And so the first question is:

0:08:49.218,0:08:52.210
For every 100 people,[br]how many are aged under 16?

0:08:52.784,0:08:56.384
Now, I don't know Exeter very well[br]at all, so I had a guess at this,

0:08:56.408,0:08:58.969
but it gives you an idea[br]of how this quiz works.

0:08:58.993,0:09:02.699
You drag the slider[br]to highlight your icons,

0:09:02.723,0:09:04.958
and then just click "Submit" to answer,

0:09:04.982,0:09:08.645
and we animate away the difference[br]between your answer and reality.

0:09:08.669,0:09:12.744
And it turns out, I was a pretty[br]terrible guess: five.

0:09:13.149,0:09:14.573
How about the next question?

0:09:14.597,0:09:16.753
This is asking about[br]what the average age is,

0:09:16.777,0:09:19.222
so the age at which half[br]the population are younger

0:09:19.246,0:09:20.920
and half the population are older.

0:09:20.944,0:09:24.294
And I thought 35 -- that sounds[br]middle-aged to me.

0:09:24.318,0:09:25.761
(Laughter)

0:09:28.206,0:09:30.312
Actually, in Exeter,[br]it's incredibly young,

0:09:30.336,0:09:34.874
and I had underestimated the impact[br]of the university in this area.

0:09:34.898,0:09:36.929
The questions get harder[br]as you go through.

0:09:36.953,0:09:39.336
So this one's now asking[br]about homeownership:

0:09:39.955,0:09:43.654
For every 100 households, how many[br]are owned with a mortgage or loan?

0:09:43.678,0:09:44.958
And I hedged my bets here,

0:09:44.982,0:09:48.080
because I didn't want to be[br]more than 50 out on the answer.

0:09:48.104,0:09:50.124
(Laughter)

0:09:50.148,0:09:52.614
And actually, these get harder,[br]these questions,

0:09:52.638,0:09:55.497
because when you're in an area,[br]when you're in a community,

0:09:55.521,0:10:00.771
things like age -- there are clues[br]to whether a population is old or young.

0:10:00.795,0:10:03.140
Just by looking around[br]the area, you can see it.

0:10:03.164,0:10:06.555
Something like homeownership[br]is much more difficult to see,

0:10:06.579,0:10:09.187
so we revert to our own heuristics,

0:10:09.211,0:10:13.662
our own biases about how many people[br]we think own their own homes.

0:10:13.686,0:10:17.336
Now the truth is,[br]when we published this quiz,

0:10:17.360,0:10:20.896
the census data that it's based on[br]was already a few years old.

0:10:20.920,0:10:24.489
We've had online applications[br]that allow you to put in a post code

0:10:24.513,0:10:26.607
and get statistics back for years.

0:10:26.631,0:10:27.820
So in some senses,

0:10:27.844,0:10:31.393
this was all a little bit old[br]and not necessarily new.

0:10:31.417,0:10:35.056
But I was interested to see[br]what reaction we might get

0:10:35.080,0:10:37.797
by game-ifying the data[br]in the way that we have,

0:10:37.821,0:10:39.228
by using animation

0:10:39.252,0:10:43.000
and playing on the fact[br]that people have their own preconceptions.

0:10:43.508,0:10:47.091
It turns out, the reaction was, um ...

0:10:48.328,0:10:50.256
was more than I could have hoped for.

0:10:50.280,0:10:53.661
It was a long-held ambition of mine[br]to bring down a statistics website

0:10:53.685,0:10:55.093
due to public demand.

0:10:55.117,0:10:56.917
(Laughter)

0:10:56.941,0:11:00.405
This URL contains the words[br]"statistics," "gov" and "UK,"

0:11:00.429,0:11:03.671
which are three of people's least[br]favorite words in a URL,

0:11:03.695,0:11:07.680
and the amazing thing about this[br]was that the website came down

0:11:07.704,0:11:09.797
at quarter to 10 at night,

0:11:09.821,0:11:13.032
because people were actually[br]engaging with this data

0:11:13.056,0:11:14.595
of their own free will,

0:11:14.619,0:11:16.654
using their own personal time.

0:11:16.678,0:11:19.165
I was very interested to see

0:11:19.189,0:11:22.902
that we got something like[br]a quarter of a million people

0:11:22.926,0:11:26.198
playing the quiz within the space[br]of 48 hours of launching it.

0:11:26.222,0:11:30.149
And it sparked an enormous discussion[br]online, on social media,

0:11:30.173,0:11:32.210
which was largely dominated

0:11:32.234,0:11:36.227
by people having fun[br]with their misconceptions,

0:11:36.251,0:11:39.310
which is something that[br]I couldn't have hoped for any better,

0:11:39.334,0:11:40.494
in some respects.

0:11:40.518,0:11:43.744
I also liked the fact that people started[br]sending it to politicians.

0:11:43.768,0:11:46.357
How well do you know the area[br]you claim to represent?

0:11:46.381,0:11:47.543
(Laughter)

0:11:47.567,0:11:49.127
And then just to finish,

0:11:49.992,0:11:52.322
going back to the two kinds of people,

0:11:52.346,0:11:54.603
I thought it would be[br]really interesting to see

0:11:54.627,0:11:57.442
how people who are good with numbers[br]would do on this quiz.

0:11:57.466,0:12:00.482
The national statistician[br]of England and Wales, John Pullinger,

0:12:00.506,0:12:02.579
you would expect he would be pretty good.

0:12:03.524,0:12:05.973
He got 44 for his own area.

0:12:05.997,0:12:08.465
(Laughter)

0:12:08.489,0:12:13.438
Jeremy Paxman -- admittedly,[br]after a glass of wine -- 36.

0:12:14.051,0:12:15.512
Even worse.

0:12:15.536,0:12:18.737
It just shows you that the numbers[br]can inspire us all.

0:12:18.761,0:12:20.021
They can surprise us all.

0:12:20.045,0:12:22.084
So very often, we talk about statistics

0:12:22.108,0:12:24.070
as being the science of uncertainty.

0:12:24.094,0:12:25.876
My parting thought for today is:

0:12:25.900,0:12:28.935
actually, statistics is the science of us.

0:12:28.959,0:12:31.747
And that's why we should[br]be fascinated by numbers.

0:12:31.771,0:12:32.961
Thank you very much.

0:12:32.985,0:12:35.602
(Applause)