WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:01.005 ♪ (music) ♪ 00:00:01.005 --> 00:00:04.143 It was just a fireball, and it traveled so fast. 00:00:05.260 --> 00:00:06.410 I just saw flames 00:00:06.410 --> 00:00:08.135 all up on the hill behind my house. 00:00:08.814 --> 00:00:10.460 It was Armageddon, I'll tell you. 00:00:10.460 --> 00:00:12.866 The fire coming in and burning all around us. 00:00:13.270 --> 00:00:17.753 (narrator) Alaska, Arizona, California, Montana, Oregon, 00:00:17.753 --> 00:00:22.000 Australia, Brazil, Canada, Greece, Russia-- 00:00:22.240 --> 00:00:24.894 these are just some of the places where in recent years 00:00:24.894 --> 00:00:27.330 wildfires have raged out of control. 00:00:27.610 --> 00:00:29.070 NASA satellites detect 00:00:29.070 --> 00:00:32.054 more than a million large fires worldwide every year. 00:00:32.054 --> 00:00:36.287 (Doug) The Western United States, for example, has seen larger fires 00:00:36.287 --> 00:00:38.165 in each of the last several years 00:00:38.165 --> 00:00:39.598 and more intense burning, 00:00:39.598 --> 00:00:41.881 and many times those fires spread faster, 00:00:41.881 --> 00:00:43.721 making them more difficult to put out 00:00:43.721 --> 00:00:46.784 and more dangerous for the communities who live in that vicinity. 00:00:47.287 --> 00:00:50.465 (narrator) In many cases, the blazes are set by human activity, 00:00:50.465 --> 00:00:53.533 but sometimes policy fuels the flames too. 00:00:53.962 --> 00:00:55.373 Consider California. 00:00:55.660 --> 00:00:57.493 The state's forests are overgrown 00:00:57.493 --> 00:01:01.702 in part because of past federal policies of putting out wildfires 00:01:01.702 --> 00:01:03.430 rather than letting them burn. 00:01:03.430 --> 00:01:08.068 Some of these policies were enacted in response to a devastating fire in 1910, 00:01:08.068 --> 00:01:11.998 in which millions of acres burned and more than 80 people died. 00:01:11.998 --> 00:01:15.216 Years passed, and suppression became the go-to strategy 00:01:15.216 --> 00:01:16.615 for dealing with fire. 00:01:18.224 --> 00:01:21.193 (reporter) It only takes a minute to wipe out a century. 00:01:21.193 --> 00:01:23.057 (narrator) Initiatives like Smokey Bear 00:01:23.057 --> 00:01:26.033 urged Americans to help prevent forest fires. 00:01:26.357 --> 00:01:28.896 (Smokey Bear) Only you can prevent forest fires. 00:01:29.454 --> 00:01:31.330 (narrator) In 1974, Congress passed 00:01:31.330 --> 00:01:33.942 the Federal Fire Prevention and Control Act 00:01:33.942 --> 00:01:36.051 in an effort to save lives, 00:01:36.051 --> 00:01:37.440 and that plan worked. 00:01:37.440 --> 00:01:39.311 Around that time, according to the Act, 00:01:39.311 --> 00:01:43.364 fires of all types killed more than 12,000 people each year. 00:01:43.650 --> 00:01:45.680 Today, according to the U.S. Fire Administration, 00:01:45.680 --> 00:01:47.393 the death toll is lower, 00:01:47.393 --> 00:01:48.393 but... 00:01:48.393 --> 00:01:51.080 (Doug) Part of the reason we see increasing fuels 00:01:51.080 --> 00:01:53.290 and increasing extreme fire behavior 00:01:53.290 --> 00:01:55.840 is that we have a legacy of putting fires out 00:01:55.840 --> 00:01:57.815 and allowing fuels to grow, 00:01:57.815 --> 00:02:01.433 permitting fires when they do start to get out of control, 00:02:01.607 --> 00:02:03.750 (narrator) Overgrown forests have an abundance 00:02:03.750 --> 00:02:07.265 of small and medium trees, known as ladder fuels, 00:02:07.265 --> 00:02:09.360 which can make fires more dangerous. 00:02:09.360 --> 00:02:11.636 Ladder fuels would allow a surface fire 00:02:11.636 --> 00:02:13.814 burning often slowly along the ground 00:02:13.814 --> 00:02:15.540 to transition into the canopy 00:02:15.540 --> 00:02:17.126 where it can spread more rapidly. 00:02:17.126 --> 00:02:19.005 And when those trees are burning, 00:02:19.005 --> 00:02:22.555 the embers that are blown by the wind can ignite the neighboring trees 00:02:22.555 --> 00:02:25.410 that can also be spread further downwind. 00:02:25.410 --> 00:02:29.180 (narrator) That's part of the story of California's 2018 fire season. 00:02:29.180 --> 00:02:31.810 The deadly campfire was fed by dry weather, 00:02:31.810 --> 00:02:34.513 fast winds, and ladder fuels. 00:02:34.513 --> 00:02:36.080 According to recent research, 00:02:36.080 --> 00:02:40.113 20 million acres of forest land or nearly 20% of California 00:02:40.113 --> 00:02:42.725 would benefit from what's known as fuel treatments. 00:02:43.107 --> 00:02:45.116 Land managers can limit the fuels 00:02:45.116 --> 00:02:47.416 that could create large, fast-moving fires 00:02:47.416 --> 00:02:48.830 in several ways, 00:02:48.830 --> 00:02:50.945 including getting out vegetation-- 00:02:51.378 --> 00:02:53.362 think logging or clearing brush-- 00:02:53.800 --> 00:02:57.786 prescribed burns where small fires are set deliberately, 00:02:57.786 --> 00:03:01.127 or letting natural wildfires in unpopulated areas 00:03:01.127 --> 00:03:04.171 run their course under the watch of local firefighters. 00:03:04.457 --> 00:03:08.298 But clearing out brush can be expensive and labor-intensive. 00:03:08.298 --> 00:03:10.810 First, many of these trees are small in diameter, 00:03:10.810 --> 00:03:13.023 so they don't have commercial value as timber 00:03:13.023 --> 00:03:15.678 and there's little financial incentive to remove them, 00:03:15.678 --> 00:03:17.820 and federal policies have historically favored 00:03:17.820 --> 00:03:20.103 putting out fires as soon as they start, 00:03:20.103 --> 00:03:21.708 to keep people safe. 00:03:21.708 --> 00:03:22.933 Maintaining that balance 00:03:22.933 --> 00:03:25.945 of different ecosystem types and different fire frequencies 00:03:25.945 --> 00:03:28.090 is more difficult when we move into areas 00:03:28.090 --> 00:03:31.160 with more dense human populations. 00:03:31.160 --> 00:03:33.306 And so the wild land urban interface 00:03:33.306 --> 00:03:36.052 is really where these two challenges meet, 00:03:36.052 --> 00:03:38.535 where people are living in communities 00:03:38.535 --> 00:03:42.163 against landscapes that historically have had fire activity. 00:03:42.163 --> 00:03:44.916 Those are landscapes that are very difficult to protect 00:03:44.916 --> 00:03:46.332 when fires do start. 00:03:46.776 --> 00:03:49.993 (narrator) One of the factors affecting California's wildfire season 00:03:49.993 --> 00:03:53.299 is new housing construction in fire prone areas. 00:03:53.680 --> 00:03:55.733 Climate change is adding to the problem too. 00:03:56.180 --> 00:03:58.848 (Doug) Where fuels are abundant today 00:03:59.310 --> 00:04:02.664 and where climate change is leading to warmer and drier conditions, 00:04:02.664 --> 00:04:05.912 we are already seeing more extreme fire behavior. 00:04:05.912 --> 00:04:07.956 (narrator) According to recent federal data, 00:04:07.956 --> 00:04:10.630 the last decade was the warmest on record. 00:04:10.630 --> 00:04:12.380 During the summer of 2020, 00:04:12.380 --> 00:04:13.986 fires burned in the Arctic, 00:04:13.986 --> 00:04:16.459 as parts of Siberia broke the record 00:04:16.459 --> 00:04:20.310 for the highest temperature ever recorded above the Arctic Circle. 00:04:20.579 --> 00:04:23.890 They're almost always too cold and too wet to burn. 00:04:23.890 --> 00:04:25.810 So, as those landscapes, 00:04:25.810 --> 00:04:28.857 which are warming three times faster than the rest of the planet, 00:04:28.857 --> 00:04:30.813 continue to warm and dry, 00:04:30.813 --> 00:04:32.760 we certainly expect to see more fires 00:04:32.760 --> 00:04:34.108 in those remote landscapes 00:04:34.108 --> 00:04:36.493 directly in response to climate change. 00:04:37.090 --> 00:04:41.226 (narrator) In August of 2020, wildfires, most of them sparked by lightning, 00:04:41.226 --> 00:04:43.908 raged out of control across California. 00:04:43.908 --> 00:04:47.154 Earlier in the year, state officials had warned of high fire danger 00:04:47.154 --> 00:04:50.374 caused by a dry winter and warm spring. 00:04:50.374 --> 00:04:53.490 It's a pattern scientists generally attribute to climate change. 00:04:54.020 --> 00:04:57.240 In May, the mountain snowpack in California, Sierra Nevada 00:04:57.240 --> 00:04:59.374 was just 13% of normal. 00:04:59.374 --> 00:05:01.090 And it's not just 2020. 00:05:01.090 --> 00:05:04.300 Half of California's 20 most destructive wildfires 00:05:04.300 --> 00:05:06.575 have happened since 2015. 00:05:08.816 --> 00:05:11.006 Across the forests of Southeast Australia, 00:05:11.006 --> 00:05:14.990 NASA mapped more fires between 2019 and 2020 00:05:14.990 --> 00:05:17.395 than they had in the last 16 years. 00:05:17.964 --> 00:05:21.250 The fires were fueled by extreme heat and drought. 00:05:21.250 --> 00:05:22.660 Hotter, drier weather 00:05:22.660 --> 00:05:25.904 sucks moisture out of the trees, grasses, and other fuels, 00:05:25.904 --> 00:05:27.542 making them more flammable. 00:05:27.542 --> 00:05:30.780 And this is making fire management all the more complicated. 00:05:30.780 --> 00:05:33.880 So as conditions that allow wildfires to spread 00:05:33.880 --> 00:05:37.710 are lasting longer across the United States and elsewhere, 00:05:37.710 --> 00:05:39.510 there's a shorter and shorter window 00:05:39.510 --> 00:05:42.285 where active management could happen under conditions 00:05:42.285 --> 00:05:45.205 that wouldn't risk fires escaping and spreading 00:05:45.205 --> 00:05:47.175 into lands as a wildfire. 00:05:47.683 --> 00:05:50.020 (narrator) That means fighting fire with fire 00:05:50.020 --> 00:05:52.970 might not be an option for certain regions anymore. 00:05:52.970 --> 00:05:54.710 So to help with wildfires, 00:05:54.710 --> 00:05:56.770 researchers are working on algorithms 00:05:56.770 --> 00:05:58.640 to improve forecasting. 00:05:58.640 --> 00:06:01.110 (Doug) If we can anticipate the timescales 00:06:01.110 --> 00:06:03.297 and the locations where fires are most likely, 00:06:03.297 --> 00:06:07.483 we have the best chance of trying to mobilize and prepare resources 00:06:07.483 --> 00:06:10.582 to anticipate fires and make a more timely decision 00:06:10.582 --> 00:06:13.470 about which fires to put out and which to let burn. 00:06:17.703 --> 00:06:20.120 ♪ (music) ♪