[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:00.98,0:00:03.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's easy to forget that last night,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:04.20,0:00:07.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,one billion people went to sleep\Nwithout access to electricity.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:08.09,0:00:09.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One billion people.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:10.30,0:00:15.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Two and a half billion people\Ndid not have access to clean cooking fuels
Dialogue: 0,0:00:15.55,0:00:16.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or clean heating fuels.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:18.23,0:00:20.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Those are the problems\Nin the developing world.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:20.98,0:00:23.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it's easy for us not to be empathetic
Dialogue: 0,0:00:23.64,0:00:25.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with those people\Nwho seem so distanced from us.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:26.33,0:00:29.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But even in our own world,\Nthe developed world,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:29.72,0:00:32.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we see the tension of stagnant economies
Dialogue: 0,0:00:33.23,0:00:35.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,impacting the lives of people around us.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:36.24,0:00:39.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We see it in whole pieces of the economy,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:39.81,0:00:42.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where the people involved\Nhave lost hope about the future
Dialogue: 0,0:00:43.22,0:00:44.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and despair about the present.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:45.46,0:00:47.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We see that in the Brexit vote.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:47.55,0:00:50.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We see that in the Sanders/Trump\Ncampaigns in my own country.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:51.67,0:00:56.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But even in countries as recently\Nturning the corner
Dialogue: 0,0:00:56.62,0:00:58.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,towards being in the developed world,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:58.46,0:00:59.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in China,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:59.73,0:01:02.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we see the difficulty\Nthat President Xi has
Dialogue: 0,0:01:02.70,0:01:07.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as he begins to un-employ so many people\Nin his coal and mining industries
Dialogue: 0,0:01:08.21,0:01:10.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who see no future for themselves.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:11.18,0:01:14.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As we as a society\Nfigure out how to manage
Dialogue: 0,0:01:14.21,0:01:16.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the problems of the developed world
Dialogue: 0,0:01:16.19,0:01:18.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the problems of the developing world,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:18.26,0:01:21.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we have to look at how we move forward
Dialogue: 0,0:01:21.13,0:01:24.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and manage the environmental impact\Nof those decisions.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:25.87,0:01:28.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We've been working on this problem\Nfor 25 years, since Rio,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:28.99,0:01:30.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the Kyoto Protocols.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:31.22,0:01:33.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Our most recent move is the Paris treaty,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:34.51,0:01:37.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the resulting climate agreements
Dialogue: 0,0:01:37.11,0:01:40.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that are being ratified\Nby nations around the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:40.04,0:01:42.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think we can be very hopeful
Dialogue: 0,0:01:42.26,0:01:45.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that those agreements,\Nwhich are bottom-up agreements,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:45.42,0:01:48.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where nations have said\Nwhat they think they can do,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:48.30,0:01:52.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are genuine and forthcoming\Nfor the vast majority of the parties.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:52.98,0:01:54.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The unfortunate thing
Dialogue: 0,0:01:55.20,0:01:58.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that now, as we look\Nat the independent analyses
Dialogue: 0,0:01:58.76,0:02:01.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of what those climate treaties\Nare liable to yield,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:03.08,0:02:05.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the magnitude of the problem\Nbefore us becomes clear.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:06.96,0:02:11.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is the United States\NEnergy Information Agency's assessment
Dialogue: 0,0:02:11.62,0:02:16.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of what will happen if the countries\Nimplement the climate commitments
Dialogue: 0,0:02:16.34,0:02:18.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that they've made in Paris
Dialogue: 0,0:02:18.40,0:02:20.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,between now and 2040.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:21.22,0:02:25.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It shows basically CO2 emissions\Naround the world
Dialogue: 0,0:02:25.46,0:02:27.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,over the next 30 years.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:28.24,0:02:31.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There are three things that you need\Nto look at and appreciate.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:32.18,0:02:36.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One, CO2 emissions are expected\Nto continue to grow
Dialogue: 0,0:02:36.37,0:02:37.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for the next 30 years.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:39.26,0:02:41.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In order to control climate,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:42.05,0:02:45.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CO2 emissions have to literally go to zero
Dialogue: 0,0:02:45.56,0:02:49.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because it's the cumulative emissions\Nthat drive heating on the planet.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:50.44,0:02:54.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This should tell you that we are losing\Nthe race to fossil fuels.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:55.57,0:02:57.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The second thing you should notice
Dialogue: 0,0:02:57.45,0:03:01.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that the bulk of the growth\Ncomes from the developing countries,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:01.77,0:03:04.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from China, from India,\Nfrom the rest of the world,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:04.86,0:03:08.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which includes South Africa\Nand Indonesia and Brazil,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:09.02,0:03:11.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as most of these countries\Nmove their people
Dialogue: 0,0:03:12.35,0:03:15.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,into the lower range of lifestyles
Dialogue: 0,0:03:15.29,0:03:19.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we literally take for granted\Nin the developed world.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:20.50,0:03:22.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The final thing that you should notice
Dialogue: 0,0:03:22.90,0:03:24.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that each year,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:25.39,0:03:32.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about 10 gigatons of carbon are getting\Nadded to the planet's atmosphere,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:32.99,0:03:35.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then diffusing into the ocean\Nand into the land.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:36.01,0:03:41.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's on top of the 550 gigatons\Nthat are in place today.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:42.06,0:03:43.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,At the end of 30 years,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:43.92,0:03:48.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we will have put 850 gigatons\Nof carbon into the air,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:49.17,0:03:51.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that probably goes a long way
Dialogue: 0,0:03:51.45,0:03:57.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,towards locking in a 2-4 degree C increase\Nin global mean surface temperatures,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:58.14,0:04:00.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,locking in ocean acidification
Dialogue: 0,0:04:01.23,0:04:03.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and locking in sea level rise.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:04.38,0:04:07.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, this is a projection made by men
Dialogue: 0,0:04:08.20,0:04:10.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by the actions of society,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:10.86,0:04:13.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it's ours to change, not to accept.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:13.91,0:04:17.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But the magnitude of the problem\Nis something we need to appreciate.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:18.65,0:04:21.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Different nations make\Ndifferent energy choices.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:21.12,0:04:23.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's a function\Nof their natural resources.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:23.47,0:04:25.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's a function of their climate.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:25.50,0:04:29.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's a function of the development path\Nthat they've followed as a society.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:30.66,0:04:34.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's a function of where\Non the surface of the planet they are.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:34.19,0:04:36.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Are they where it's dark\Na lot of the time,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:36.72,0:04:38.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or are they at the mid-latitudes?
Dialogue: 0,0:04:38.99,0:04:42.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Many, many, many things\Ngo into the choices of countries,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:43.18,0:04:45.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they each make a different choice.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:46.88,0:04:50.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The overwhelming thing\Nthat we need to appreciate
Dialogue: 0,0:04:50.06,0:04:51.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is the choice that China has made.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:52.70,0:04:55.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,China has made the choice,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:55.31,0:04:57.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and will make the choice, to run on coal.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:58.36,0:05:00.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The United States has an alternative.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:00.40,0:05:02.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It can run on natural gas
Dialogue: 0,0:05:02.18,0:05:06.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as a result of the inventions\Nof fracking and shale gas,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:06.03,0:05:07.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which we have here.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:07.53,0:05:09.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They provide an alternative.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:10.66,0:05:13.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The OECD Europe has a choice.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:13.88,0:05:16.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It has renewables that it can afford\Nto deploy in Germany
Dialogue: 0,0:05:16.97,0:05:19.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because it's rich enough\Nto afford to do it.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:19.62,0:05:25.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The French and the British\Nshow interest in nuclear power.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:25.70,0:05:30.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Eastern Europe, still very heavily\Ncommitted to natural gas and to coal,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:30.33,0:05:33.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and with natural gas\Nthat comes from Russia,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:33.08,0:05:34.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with all of its entanglements.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:35.56,0:05:38.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,China has many fewer choices
Dialogue: 0,0:05:38.04,0:05:40.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and a much harder row to hoe.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:41.56,0:05:44.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you look at China, and you ask yourself
Dialogue: 0,0:05:44.61,0:05:46.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,why has coal been important to it,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:46.84,0:05:49.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you have to remember what China's done.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:49.53,0:05:52.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,China brought people to power,\Nnot power to people.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:53.38,0:05:55.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It didn't do rural electrification.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:56.43,0:05:57.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It urbanized.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:57.95,0:06:02.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It urbanized by taking low-cost labor\Nand low-cost energy,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:02.18,0:06:04.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,creating export industries
Dialogue: 0,0:06:04.12,0:06:06.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that could fund a tremendous\Namount of growth.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:07.54,0:06:09.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If we look at China's path,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:09.76,0:06:13.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,all of us know that prosperity in China\Nhas dramatically increased.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:14.71,0:06:19.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In 1980, 80 percent of China's population
Dialogue: 0,0:06:19.28,0:06:21.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,lived below the extreme poverty level,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:22.49,0:06:26.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,below the level of having\N$1.90 per person per day.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:26.66,0:06:32.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,By the year 2000, only 20 percent\Nof China's population
Dialogue: 0,0:06:32.15,0:06:34.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,lived below the extreme poverty level --
Dialogue: 0,0:06:35.50,0:06:37.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a remarkable feat,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:37.98,0:06:40.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,admittedly, with some costs\Nin civil liberties
Dialogue: 0,0:06:40.37,0:06:43.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that would be tough to accept\Nin the Western world.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:44.55,0:06:47.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But the impact of all that wealth
Dialogue: 0,0:06:47.48,0:06:50.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,allowed people to get\Nmassively better nutrition.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:51.48,0:06:54.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It allowed water pipes to be placed.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:54.22,0:06:56.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It allowed sewage pipes to be placed,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:56.71,0:06:59.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,dramatic decrease in diarrheal diseases,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:00.59,0:07:03.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at the cost of some outdoor air pollution.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:04.07,0:07:06.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But in 1980, and even today,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:06.37,0:07:10.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the number one killer in China\Nis indoor air pollution,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:10.83,0:07:15.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because people do not have access\Nto clean cooking and heating fuels.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:16.07,0:07:18.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In fact, in 2040,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:19.79,0:07:24.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's still estimated\Nthat 200 million people in China
Dialogue: 0,0:07:24.59,0:07:28.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,will not have access\Nto clean cooking fuels.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:29.13,0:07:31.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They have a remarkable path to follow.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:32.85,0:07:37.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,India also needs to meet the needs\Nof its own people,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:37.63,0:07:39.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it's going to do that by burning coal.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:40.48,0:07:45.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When we look at the EIA's projections\Nof coal burning in India,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:46.59,0:07:51.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,India will supply nearly four times\Nas much of its energy from coal
Dialogue: 0,0:07:51.52,0:07:53.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as it will from renewables.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:54.96,0:07:57.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's not because they don't know\Nthe alternatives;
Dialogue: 0,0:07:57.84,0:08:01.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's because rich countries\Ncan do what they choose,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:02.16,0:08:04.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,poor countries do what they must.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:06.20,0:08:09.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So what can we do to stop\Ncoal's emissions in time?
Dialogue: 0,0:08:10.90,0:08:15.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What can we do that changes\Nthis forecast that's in front of us?
Dialogue: 0,0:08:15.54,0:08:19.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because it's a forecast that we can change\Nif we have the will to do it.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:21.09,0:08:24.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,First of all, we have to think\Nabout the magnitude of the problem.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:24.54,0:08:26.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Between now and 2040,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:27.10,0:08:32.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,800 to 1,600 new coal plants\Nare going to be built around the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:34.08,0:08:38.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This week, between one and three\None-gigawatt coal plants
Dialogue: 0,0:08:38.72,0:08:40.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are being turned on around the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:41.82,0:08:45.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's happening regardless\Nof what we want,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:45.89,0:08:48.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because the people\Nthat rule their countries,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:48.42,0:08:50.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,assessing the interests of their citizens,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:50.82,0:08:54.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,have decided it's in the interest\Nof their citizens to do that.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:55.34,0:08:59.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that's going to happen\Nunless they have a better alternative.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:59.73,0:09:03.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And every 100 of those plants will use up
Dialogue: 0,0:09:03.51,0:09:06.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,between one percent and three percent
Dialogue: 0,0:09:06.66,0:09:08.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of the Earth's climate budget.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:09.26,0:09:12.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So every day that you go home\Nthinking that you should do something
Dialogue: 0,0:09:12.78,0:09:14.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about global warming,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:14.59,0:09:16.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at the end of that week, remember:
Dialogue: 0,0:09:16.55,0:09:20.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,somebody fired up a coal plant\Nthat's going to run for 50 years
Dialogue: 0,0:09:20.97,0:09:24.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and take away your ability to change it.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:25.97,0:09:29.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What we've forgotten is something\Nthat Vinod Khosla used to talk about,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:29.59,0:09:32.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a man of Indian ethnicity\Nbut an American venture capitalist.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:33.34,0:09:36.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And he said, back in the early 2000s,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:36.19,0:09:40.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that if you needed to get\NChina and India off of fossil fuels,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:40.22,0:09:43.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you had to create a technology\Nthat passed the "Chindia test,"
Dialogue: 0,0:09:44.64,0:09:47.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Chindia" being the appending\Nof the two words.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:47.90,0:09:50.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It had to be first of all viable,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:50.28,0:09:53.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,meaning that technically, they could\Nimplement it in their country,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:53.90,0:09:56.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that it would be accepted\Nby the people in the country.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:58.19,0:10:04.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Two, it had to be a technology\Nthat was scalable,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:04.79,0:10:07.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that it could deliver the same benefits
Dialogue: 0,0:10:07.83,0:10:10.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on the same timetable as fossil fuels,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:11.39,0:10:15.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so that they can enjoy the kind of life,\Nagain, that we take for granted.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:15.77,0:10:18.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And third, it had to be cost-effective
Dialogue: 0,0:10:18.30,0:10:20.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,without subsidy or without mandate.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:21.43,0:10:24.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It had to stand on its own two feet;
Dialogue: 0,0:10:24.17,0:10:28.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it could not be maintained\Nfor that many people
Dialogue: 0,0:10:28.07,0:10:30.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if in fact, those countries\Nhad to go begging
Dialogue: 0,0:10:31.01,0:10:34.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or had some foreign country say,\N"I won't trade with you,"
Dialogue: 0,0:10:35.33,0:10:38.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in order to get\Nthe technology shift to occur.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:40.17,0:10:41.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you look at the Chindia test,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:41.88,0:10:46.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we simply have not come up\Nwith alternatives that meet that test.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:46.98,0:10:49.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's what the EIA forecast tells us.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:50.76,0:10:54.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,China's building 800 gigawatts of coal,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:54.87,0:10:57.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,400 gigawatts of hydro,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:57.77,0:11:00.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about 200 gigawatts of nuclear,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:00.50,0:11:04.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and on an energy-equivalent basis,\Nadjusting for intermittency,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:04.59,0:11:06.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about 100 gigawatts of renewables.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:07.55,0:11:09.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,800 gigawatts of coal.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:09.80,0:11:13.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They're doing that, knowing the costs\Nbetter than any other country,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:13.38,0:11:15.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,knowing the need better\Nthan any other country.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:16.45,0:11:19.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But that's what they're aiming for in 2040
Dialogue: 0,0:11:19.10,0:11:21.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,unless we give them a better choice.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:22.20,0:11:23.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,To give them a better choice,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:23.66,0:11:26.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's going to have to meet\Nthe Chindia test.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:26.25,0:11:28.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you look at all the alternatives\Nthat are out there,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:28.93,0:11:31.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there are really two\Nthat come near to meeting it.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:31.86,0:11:35.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,First is this area of new nuclear\Nthat I'll talk about in just a second.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:36.11,0:11:39.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's a new generation of nuclear plants\Nthat are on the drawing boards
Dialogue: 0,0:11:39.43,0:11:40.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,around the world,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:40.73,0:11:43.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the people who are\Ndeveloping these say
Dialogue: 0,0:11:43.09,0:11:46.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we can get them\Nin position to demo by 2025
Dialogue: 0,0:11:47.25,0:11:50.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and to scale by 2030,\Nif you will just let us.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:51.25,0:11:54.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The second alternative\Nthat could be there in time
Dialogue: 0,0:11:54.77,0:11:58.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is utility-scale solar\Nbacked up with natural gas,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:58.50,0:12:00.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which we can use today,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:00.25,0:12:03.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,versus the batteries\Nwhich are still under development.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:04.59,0:12:06.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So what's holding new nuclear back?
Dialogue: 0,0:12:07.69,0:12:11.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Outdated regulations\Nand yesterday's mindsets.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:11.97,0:12:16.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We have not used our latest\Nscientific thinking on radiological health
Dialogue: 0,0:12:16.19,0:12:18.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to think how we communicate\Nwith the public
Dialogue: 0,0:12:18.90,0:12:21.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and govern the testing\Nof new nuclear reactors.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:21.73,0:12:25.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We have new scientific knowledge\Nthat we need to use
Dialogue: 0,0:12:25.95,0:12:30.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in order to improve the way\Nwe regulate nuclear industry.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:30.87,0:12:33.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The second thing is we've got a mindset
Dialogue: 0,0:12:33.34,0:12:36.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that it takes 25 years\Nand 2 to 5 billion dollars
Dialogue: 0,0:12:36.18,0:12:37.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to develop a nuclear power plant.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:37.94,0:12:41.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That comes from the historical,\Nmilitary mindset
Dialogue: 0,0:12:42.44,0:12:44.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of the places nuclear power came from.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:45.36,0:12:47.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These new nuclear ventures are saying
Dialogue: 0,0:12:47.59,0:12:50.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that they can deliver power\Nfor 5 cents a kilowatt hour;
Dialogue: 0,0:12:51.21,0:12:53.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they can deliver it\Nfor 100 gigawatts a year;
Dialogue: 0,0:12:54.54,0:12:56.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they can demo it by 2025;
Dialogue: 0,0:12:57.17,0:13:00.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they can deliver it in scale by 2030,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:00.63,0:13:02.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if only we give them a chance.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:04.06,0:13:06.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Right now, we're basically\Nwaiting for a miracle.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:07.89,0:13:09.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What we need is a choice.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:09.95,0:13:12.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If they can't make it safe,\Nif they can't make it cheap,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:12.78,0:13:14.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it should not be deployed.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:14.62,0:13:18.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But what I want you to do\Nis not carry an idea forward,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:18.70,0:13:20.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but write your leaders,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:20.37,0:13:22.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,write the head of the NGOs you support,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:22.78,0:13:25.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and tell them to give you the choice,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:26.29,0:13:27.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not the past.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:27.46,0:13:28.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thank you very much.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:28.67,0:13:33.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)