WEBVTT 00:00:02.639 --> 00:00:04.114 It's easy to forget that last night, 00:00:04.114 --> 00:00:08.325 one billion people went to sleep without access to electricity. 00:00:08.325 --> 00:00:10.512 One billion people. 00:00:10.512 --> 00:00:13.505 Two and a half billion people did not have access 00:00:13.505 --> 00:00:15.553 to clean cooking fuels 00:00:15.553 --> 00:00:17.747 or clean heating fuels. 00:00:17.747 --> 00:00:21.134 Those are the problems in the developing world, 00:00:21.134 --> 00:00:24.324 and it's easy for us not to be empathetic with those people 00:00:24.324 --> 00:00:26.331 who seem so distant from us. 00:00:26.331 --> 00:00:29.585 But even in our own world, the developed world, 00:00:29.585 --> 00:00:33.480 we see the tension of stagnant economies 00:00:33.480 --> 00:00:36.393 impacting the lives of people around us. 00:00:36.393 --> 00:00:39.698 We see it in whole pieces of the economy, 00:00:39.698 --> 00:00:43.220 where the people involved have lost hope about the future 00:00:43.220 --> 00:00:45.529 and despair about the present. 00:00:45.529 --> 00:00:47.673 We see that in the Brexit vote. 00:00:47.673 --> 00:00:51.488 We see that in the Sanders/Trump campaigns in my own country. 00:00:51.488 --> 00:00:56.619 But even in countries as recently turning the corner 00:00:56.619 --> 00:00:58.657 towards being in the developed world, 00:00:58.657 --> 00:00:59.807 in China, 00:00:59.807 --> 00:01:02.407 we see the difficulty that President Xi has 00:01:02.407 --> 00:01:07.931 as he begins to unemploy so many people in his coal and mining industries 00:01:07.931 --> 00:01:11.366 who see no future for themselves. 00:01:11.366 --> 00:01:14.392 As we as a society figure out how to manage 00:01:14.392 --> 00:01:16.267 the problems of the developed world 00:01:16.267 --> 00:01:18.259 and the problems of the developing world, 00:01:18.259 --> 00:01:21.131 we have to look at how we move forward 00:01:21.131 --> 00:01:23.616 and manage the environmental impact 00:01:23.616 --> 00:01:25.868 of those decisions. NOTE Paragraph 00:01:25.868 --> 00:01:28.292 We've been working on this problem for 25 years, since Rio, 00:01:28.292 --> 00:01:31.223 the Kyoto Protocols. 00:01:31.223 --> 00:01:33.047 Our most recent move 00:01:33.047 --> 00:01:34.737 is the Paris treaty, 00:01:34.737 --> 00:01:37.112 and the resulting climate agreements 00:01:37.112 --> 00:01:40.233 that are being ratified by nations around the world. 00:01:40.233 --> 00:01:42.272 I think we can be very hopeful 00:01:42.272 --> 00:01:45.629 that those agreements, which are bottom-up agreements, 00:01:45.629 --> 00:01:48.390 where nations have said what they think they can do, 00:01:48.390 --> 00:01:52.977 are genuine and forthcoming for the vast majority of the parties. 00:01:52.977 --> 00:01:55.229 The unfortunate thing 00:01:55.229 --> 00:01:59.735 is that now, as we look at the independent analyses 00:01:59.735 --> 00:02:02.958 of what those climate treaties are liable to yield, 00:02:02.958 --> 00:02:07.037 the magnitude of the problem before us becomes clear. NOTE Paragraph 00:02:07.037 --> 00:02:11.524 This is the United States Energy Information Agency's assessment 00:02:11.524 --> 00:02:13.186 of what will happen 00:02:13.186 --> 00:02:16.440 if the countries implement the climate commitments 00:02:16.440 --> 00:02:18.495 that they've made in Paris 00:02:18.495 --> 00:02:21.158 between now and 2040. 00:02:21.158 --> 00:02:25.562 It shows basically CO2 emissions around the world 00:02:25.562 --> 00:02:28.443 over the next 30 years. 00:02:28.443 --> 00:02:30.630 There are three things that you need to look at 00:02:30.630 --> 00:02:32.241 and appreciate. NOTE Paragraph 00:02:32.241 --> 00:02:36.531 One, CO2 emissions are expected to continue to grow 00:02:36.531 --> 00:02:39.456 for the next 30 years. 00:02:39.456 --> 00:02:42.205 In order to control climate, 00:02:42.205 --> 00:02:46.121 CO2 emissions have to literally go to zero 00:02:46.121 --> 00:02:50.445 because it's the cumulative emissions that drive heating on the planet. 00:02:50.445 --> 00:02:54.982 This should tell you that we are losing the race to fossil fuels. NOTE Paragraph 00:02:55.726 --> 00:02:57.612 The second thing you should notice 00:02:57.612 --> 00:02:59.750 is that the bulk of the growth 00:02:59.750 --> 00:03:01.853 comes from the developing countries, 00:03:01.853 --> 00:03:04.025 from China, from India, 00:03:04.025 --> 00:03:05.440 from the rest of the world, 00:03:05.440 --> 00:03:09.024 which includes South Africa and Indonesia and Brazil, 00:03:09.024 --> 00:03:12.196 as most of these countries move their people 00:03:12.196 --> 00:03:15.288 into the lower range of lifestyles 00:03:15.288 --> 00:03:17.842 that we literally take for granted 00:03:17.842 --> 00:03:20.495 in the developed world. NOTE Paragraph 00:03:20.495 --> 00:03:22.902 The final thing that you should notice 00:03:22.902 --> 00:03:25.138 is that each year, 00:03:25.138 --> 00:03:29.911 about 10 gigatons of carbon are getting added 00:03:29.911 --> 00:03:33.176 to the planet's atmosphere, 00:03:33.176 --> 00:03:36.075 and then diffusing into the ocean and into the land. 00:03:36.075 --> 00:03:42.189 That's on top of the 550 gigatons that are in place today. 00:03:42.189 --> 00:03:43.976 At the end of 30 years, 00:03:43.976 --> 00:03:46.496 we will have put 850 gigatons 00:03:46.496 --> 00:03:49.091 of carbon into the air, 00:03:49.091 --> 00:03:51.511 and that probably goes a long way 00:03:51.511 --> 00:03:55.606 towards locking in a 2-4 degree C increase 00:03:55.606 --> 00:03:58.252 in global mean surface temperatures, 00:03:58.252 --> 00:04:01.299 locking in ocean acidification, 00:04:01.299 --> 00:04:04.303 and locking in sea level rise. NOTE Paragraph 00:04:04.303 --> 00:04:06.063 Now, this is a projection 00:04:06.063 --> 00:04:07.769 made by men 00:04:07.769 --> 00:04:10.649 by the actions of society, 00:04:10.649 --> 00:04:14.055 and it's ours to change, not to accept. 00:04:14.055 --> 00:04:18.823 But the magnitude of the problem is something we need to appreciate. NOTE Paragraph 00:04:18.823 --> 00:04:21.388 Different nations make different energy choices. 00:04:21.388 --> 00:04:23.657 It's a function of their natural resources. 00:04:23.657 --> 00:04:25.499 It's a function of their climate. 00:04:25.499 --> 00:04:30.863 It's a function of the development path that they've followed as a society. 00:04:30.863 --> 00:04:34.279 It's a function of where on the surface of the planet they are. 00:04:34.279 --> 00:04:36.802 Are they where it's dark a lot of the time, 00:04:36.802 --> 00:04:39.180 or are they at the mid-latitudes? 00:04:39.180 --> 00:04:41.086 Many, many, many things 00:04:41.086 --> 00:04:43.273 go into the choices of countries, 00:04:43.273 --> 00:04:46.359 and they each make a different choice. NOTE Paragraph 00:04:46.359 --> 00:04:50.064 The overwhelming thing that we need to appreciate 00:04:50.064 --> 00:04:52.695 is the choice that China has made. 00:04:52.695 --> 00:04:54.779 China has made the choice, 00:04:54.779 --> 00:04:58.284 and will make the choice, to run on coal. 00:04:58.284 --> 00:05:00.521 The United States has an alternative. 00:05:00.521 --> 00:05:02.182 It can run on natural gas 00:05:02.182 --> 00:05:06.031 as a result of the inventions of fracking and shale gas 00:05:06.031 --> 00:05:07.526 which we have here. 00:05:07.526 --> 00:05:09.482 They provide an alternative. 00:05:09.482 --> 00:05:14.088 The OECD Europe has a choice. 00:05:14.088 --> 00:05:17.180 It has renewables that it can afford to deploy in Germany, 00:05:17.180 --> 00:05:19.615 because it's rich enough to afford to do it. 00:05:19.615 --> 00:05:25.901 The French and the British show interest in nuclear power. 00:05:25.901 --> 00:05:30.514 Eastern Europe, still very heavily committed to natural gas and to coal, 00:05:30.514 --> 00:05:35.558 and with natural gas that comes from Russia, with all of its entanglements. 00:05:35.558 --> 00:05:38.176 China has many fewer choices 00:05:38.176 --> 00:05:42.962 and a much harder row to hoe. NOTE Paragraph 00:05:42.962 --> 00:05:44.869 If you look at China, and you ask yourself, 00:05:44.869 --> 00:05:47.088 why has coal been important to it, 00:05:47.088 --> 00:05:49.324 you have to remember what China's done. 00:05:49.324 --> 00:05:53.484 China brought people to power, not power to people. 00:05:53.484 --> 00:05:56.427 It didn't do rural electrification. 00:05:56.427 --> 00:05:58.153 It urbanized. 00:05:58.153 --> 00:06:00.757 It urbanized by taking low-cost labor 00:06:00.757 --> 00:06:02.182 and low-cost energy, 00:06:02.182 --> 00:06:04.123 creating export industries 00:06:04.123 --> 00:06:07.427 that could fund a tremendous amount of growth. 00:06:07.427 --> 00:06:09.763 If we look at China's path, 00:06:09.763 --> 00:06:14.645 all of us know that prosperity in China has dramatically increased. 00:06:14.645 --> 00:06:19.283 In 1980, 80 percent of China's population 00:06:19.283 --> 00:06:22.700 lived below the extreme poverty level, 00:06:22.700 --> 00:06:26.864 below the level of having a $1.90 per person per day. 00:06:26.864 --> 00:06:31.927 By the year 2000, only 20 percent of China's population 00:06:31.927 --> 00:06:35.462 lived below the extreme poverty level, 00:06:35.462 --> 00:06:37.900 a remarkable feat, 00:06:37.900 --> 00:06:41.104 admittedly with some costs in civil liberties that would be tough 00:06:41.104 --> 00:06:44.636 to accept in the Western world. 00:06:44.636 --> 00:06:47.566 But the impact of all that wealth 00:06:47.566 --> 00:06:51.382 allowed people to get massively better nutrition. 00:06:51.382 --> 00:06:54.223 It allowed water pipes to be placed. 00:06:54.223 --> 00:06:56.706 It allowed sewage pipes to be placed, 00:06:56.706 --> 00:07:00.102 dramatic decrease in diarrheal diseases, 00:07:00.102 --> 00:07:04.207 at the cost of some outdoor air pollution. 00:07:04.207 --> 00:07:06.374 But in 1980, and even today, 00:07:06.374 --> 00:07:10.833 the number one killer in China is indoor air pollution, 00:07:10.833 --> 00:07:15.602 because people do not have access to clean cooking and heating fuels. 00:07:16.091 --> 00:07:18.756 In fact, in 2040, 00:07:18.756 --> 00:07:21.518 it's still estimated 00:07:21.518 --> 00:07:24.593 that 200 million people in China 00:07:24.593 --> 00:07:26.664 will not have access 00:07:26.664 --> 00:07:29.228 to clean cooking fuels. 00:07:29.228 --> 00:07:32.370 They have a remarkable path to follow. NOTE Paragraph 00:07:32.370 --> 00:07:37.911 India also needs to meet the needs of its own people, 00:07:37.911 --> 00:07:40.475 and it's going to do that by burning coal. 00:07:40.475 --> 00:07:43.353 When we look at the EIA's projections 00:07:43.353 --> 00:07:46.807 of coal burning in India, 00:07:46.807 --> 00:07:50.374 India will supply nearly four times as much of its energy 00:07:50.374 --> 00:07:54.815 from coal as it will from renewables. 00:07:54.815 --> 00:07:58.072 It's not because they don't know the alternatives. 00:07:58.072 --> 00:08:02.242 It's because rich countries can do what they choose, 00:08:02.242 --> 00:08:05.929 poor countries do what they must. NOTE Paragraph 00:08:05.929 --> 00:08:10.866 So what can we do to stop coal's emissions in time? 00:08:10.866 --> 00:08:15.763 What can we do that changes this forecast that's in front of us? 00:08:15.763 --> 00:08:17.999 Because it's a forecast that we can change 00:08:17.999 --> 00:08:20.956 if we have the will to do it. NOTE Paragraph 00:08:20.956 --> 00:08:24.711 First of all, we have to think about the magnitude of the problem. 00:08:24.711 --> 00:08:26.965 Between now and 2040, 00:08:26.965 --> 00:08:30.347 800 to 1,600 new coal plants 00:08:30.347 --> 00:08:33.618 are going to be built around the world. 00:08:33.618 --> 00:08:38.718 This week, between one and three one gigawatt coal plants 00:08:38.718 --> 00:08:41.748 are being turned on around the world. 00:08:41.748 --> 00:08:45.955 That's happening regardless of what we want, 00:08:45.955 --> 00:08:48.423 because the people that rule their countries, 00:08:48.423 --> 00:08:50.712 assessing the interests of their citizens, 00:08:50.712 --> 00:08:54.887 have decided it's in the interest of their citizens to do that. 00:08:54.887 --> 00:08:57.153 And that's going to happen 00:08:57.153 --> 00:08:59.726 unless they have a better alternative, 00:08:59.726 --> 00:09:02.366 and every 100 of those plants 00:09:02.366 --> 00:09:05.343 will use up between one percent 00:09:05.343 --> 00:09:06.807 and three percent 00:09:06.807 --> 00:09:09.009 of the Earth's climate budget. 00:09:09.009 --> 00:09:12.791 So every day that you go home thinking that you should do something 00:09:12.791 --> 00:09:14.320 about global warming, 00:09:14.320 --> 00:09:16.630 at the end of that week, remember 00:09:16.630 --> 00:09:18.644 somebody fired up a coal plant 00:09:18.644 --> 00:09:20.967 that's going to run for 50 years 00:09:20.967 --> 00:09:25.550 and take away your ability to change it. NOTE Paragraph 00:09:25.550 --> 00:09:27.639 What we've forgotten is something 00:09:27.639 --> 00:09:30.696 that Vinod Khosla used to talk about, a man of Indian ethnicity 00:09:30.696 --> 00:09:32.227 but an American venture capitalist. 00:09:32.227 --> 00:09:36.304 And he said, back in the early 2000s 00:09:36.304 --> 00:09:40.481 that if you needed to get China and India off of fossil fuels, 00:09:40.481 --> 00:09:44.509 you had to create a technology that passed the Chindia test, 00:09:44.509 --> 00:09:48.061 Chindia being the appending of the two words. 00:09:48.061 --> 00:09:50.363 It had to be first of all viable, 00:09:50.363 --> 00:09:53.980 meaning that technically, they could implement it in their country, 00:09:53.980 --> 00:09:58.025 and that it would be accepted by the people in the country. NOTE Paragraph 00:09:58.025 --> 00:10:01.954 Two, it had to be a technology 00:10:01.954 --> 00:10:05.030 that was scalable, 00:10:05.030 --> 00:10:08.005 that it could deliver the same benefits 00:10:08.005 --> 00:10:10.837 on the same timetable as fossil fuels, 00:10:10.837 --> 00:10:15.654 so that they can enjoy the kind of life, again, that we take for granted. NOTE Paragraph 00:10:15.654 --> 00:10:18.298 And third, it had to be cost-effective 00:10:18.298 --> 00:10:21.488 without subsidy or without mandate. 00:10:21.488 --> 00:10:24.170 It had to stand on its own two feet. 00:10:24.170 --> 00:10:26.718 It could not be maintained for that many people 00:10:26.718 --> 00:10:31.009 if in fact those countries had to go begging 00:10:31.009 --> 00:10:35.073 or had some foreign countries say, I won't trade with you, 00:10:35.073 --> 00:10:40.367 in order to get the technology shift to occur. NOTE Paragraph 00:10:40.367 --> 00:10:43.670 If you look at the Chindia test, we simply have not come up 00:10:43.670 --> 00:10:46.984 with alternatives that meet that test. 00:10:46.984 --> 00:10:50.861 That's what the EIA forecast tells us. 00:10:50.861 --> 00:10:54.866 China's building 800 gigawatts of coal, 00:10:54.866 --> 00:10:57.695 400 gigawatts of hydro, 00:10:57.695 --> 00:11:00.393 about 200 gigawatts of nuclear, 00:11:00.393 --> 00:11:02.578 and on an energy equivalent basis, 00:11:02.578 --> 00:11:04.654 adjusting for intermittency, 00:11:04.654 --> 00:11:07.745 about 100 gigawatts of renewables. 00:11:07.745 --> 00:11:10.027 800 gigawatts of coal. 00:11:10.027 --> 00:11:13.381 They're doing that knowing the costs better than any other country, 00:11:13.381 --> 00:11:16.637 knowing the need better than any other country, 00:11:16.637 --> 00:11:19.209 but that's what they're aiming for in 2040 00:11:19.209 --> 00:11:22.199 unless we give them a better choice. 00:11:22.199 --> 00:11:26.322 To give them a better choice, it's going to have to meet the Chindia test. NOTE Paragraph 00:11:26.322 --> 00:11:29.462 If you look at all the alternatives that are out there, 00:11:29.462 --> 00:11:31.865 there are really two that come near to meeting it. 00:11:31.865 --> 00:11:36.107 First is this area of new nuclear that I'll talk about in just a second. 00:11:36.107 --> 00:11:39.431 It's a new generation of nuclear plants that are on the drawing boards 00:11:39.431 --> 00:11:40.601 around the world, 00:11:40.601 --> 00:11:43.093 and the people who are developing these say, 00:11:43.093 --> 00:11:47.491 we can get them in position to demo by 2025 00:11:47.491 --> 00:11:51.176 and to scale by 2030 if you will just let us. 00:11:51.176 --> 00:11:54.429 The second alternative that could be there in time 00:11:54.429 --> 00:11:56.870 is utility-scale solar 00:11:56.870 --> 00:11:58.837 backed up with natural gas 00:11:58.837 --> 00:12:00.399 which we can use today 00:12:00.399 --> 00:12:04.740 versus the batteries which are still under development. NOTE Paragraph 00:12:04.740 --> 00:12:07.782 So what's holding new nuclear back? 00:12:07.782 --> 00:12:11.827 Outdated regulations and yesterday's mindsets. 00:12:11.827 --> 00:12:14.573 We have not used our latest scientific thinking 00:12:14.573 --> 00:12:16.283 on radiological health 00:12:16.283 --> 00:12:18.848 to think how we communicate with the public 00:12:18.848 --> 00:12:21.857 and govern the testing of new nuclear reactors. 00:12:21.857 --> 00:12:23.846 We have new scientific knowledge 00:12:23.846 --> 00:12:25.950 that we need to use 00:12:25.950 --> 00:12:28.269 in order to improve the way 00:12:28.269 --> 00:12:30.983 we regulate nuclear industry. NOTE Paragraph 00:12:30.983 --> 00:12:33.464 The second thing is we've got a mindset 00:12:33.464 --> 00:12:36.178 that it takes 25 years and 2 to 5 billion dollars 00:12:36.178 --> 00:12:37.937 to develop a nuclear power plant. 00:12:37.937 --> 00:12:42.443 That comes from the historical, military mindset 00:12:42.443 --> 00:12:45.403 of the places that nuclear power came from. 00:12:45.403 --> 00:12:47.638 These new nuclear ventures are saying 00:12:47.638 --> 00:12:51.864 that they can deliver power for 5 cents per kilowatt/hour, 00:12:51.864 --> 00:12:54.339 they can deliver it for 100 gigawatts a year, 00:12:54.339 --> 00:12:56.929 they can demo it by 2025, 00:12:56.929 --> 00:13:00.825 and they can deliver it in scale by 2030, 00:13:00.825 --> 00:13:03.884 if only we give them a chance. NOTE Paragraph 00:13:03.884 --> 00:13:07.862 Right now, we're basically waiting for a miracle. 00:13:07.862 --> 00:13:09.952 What we need is a choice. 00:13:09.952 --> 00:13:12.780 If they can't make it safe, if they can't make it cheap, 00:13:12.780 --> 00:13:14.621 it should not be deployed. 00:13:14.621 --> 00:13:18.699 But what I want you to do is not carry an idea forward, 00:13:18.699 --> 00:13:20.540 but write your leaders, 00:13:20.540 --> 00:13:22.808 write the head of the NGOs you support, 00:13:22.808 --> 00:13:25.983 and tell them to give you the choice, 00:13:25.983 --> 00:13:27.446 not the past. NOTE Paragraph 00:13:27.446 --> 00:13:29.171 Thank you very much. NOTE Paragraph 00:13:29.171 --> 00:13:33.462 (Applause)