[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:02.64,0:00:04.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's easy to forget that last night,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:04.11,0:00:08.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,one billion people went to sleep\Nwithout access to electricity.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:08.32,0:00:10.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One billion people.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:10.51,0:00:13.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Two and a half billion people\Ndid not have access
Dialogue: 0,0:00:13.50,0:00:15.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to clean cooking fuels
Dialogue: 0,0:00:15.55,0:00:17.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or clean heating fuels.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:17.75,0:00:21.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Those are the problems\Nin the developing world,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:21.13,0:00:24.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it's easy for us not to be\Nempathetic with those people
Dialogue: 0,0:00:24.32,0:00:26.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who seem so distant from us.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:26.33,0:00:29.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But even in our own world,\Nthe developed world,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:29.58,0:00:33.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we see the tension of stagnant economies
Dialogue: 0,0:00:33.48,0:00:36.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,impacting the lives of people around us.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:36.39,0:00:39.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We see it in whole pieces of the economy,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:39.70,0:00:43.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where the people involved\Nhave lost hope about the future
Dialogue: 0,0:00:43.22,0:00:45.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and despair about the present.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:45.53,0:00:47.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We see that in the Brexit vote.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:47.67,0:00:51.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We see that in the Sanders/Trump\Ncampaigns in my own country.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:51.49,0:00:56.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But even in countries as recently\Nturning the corner
Dialogue: 0,0:00:56.62,0:00:58.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,towards being in the developed world,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:58.66,0:00:59.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in China,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:59.81,0:01:02.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we see the difficulty\Nthat President Xi has
Dialogue: 0,0:01:02.41,0:01:07.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as he begins to unemploy so many people\Nin his coal and mining industries
Dialogue: 0,0:01:07.93,0:01:11.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who see no future for themselves.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:11.37,0:01:14.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As we as a society figure out\Nhow to manage
Dialogue: 0,0:01:14.39,0:01:16.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the problems of the developed world
Dialogue: 0,0:01:16.27,0:01:18.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the problems of the developing world,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:18.26,0:01:21.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we have to look at how we move forward
Dialogue: 0,0:01:21.13,0:01:23.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and manage the environmental impact
Dialogue: 0,0:01:23.62,0:01:25.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of those decisions.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:25.87,0:01:28.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We've been working on this problem\Nfor 25 years, since Rio,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:28.29,0:01:31.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the Kyoto Protocols.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:31.22,0:01:33.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Our most recent move
Dialogue: 0,0:01:33.05,0:01:34.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is the Paris treaty,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:34.74,0:01:37.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the resulting climate agreements
Dialogue: 0,0:01:37.11,0:01:40.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that are being ratified\Nby nations around the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:40.23,0:01:42.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think we can be very hopeful
Dialogue: 0,0:01:42.27,0:01:45.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that those agreements,\Nwhich are bottom-up agreements,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:45.63,0:01:48.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where nations have said\Nwhat they think they can do,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:48.39,0:01:52.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are genuine and forthcoming\Nfor the vast majority of the parties.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:52.98,0:01:55.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The unfortunate thing
Dialogue: 0,0:01:55.23,0:01:59.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that now, as we look\Nat the independent analyses
Dialogue: 0,0:01:59.74,0:02:02.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of what those climate treaties\Nare liable to yield,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:02.96,0:02:07.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the magnitude of the problem\Nbefore us becomes clear.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:07.04,0:02:11.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is the United States\NEnergy Information Agency's assessment
Dialogue: 0,0:02:11.52,0:02:13.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of what will happen
Dialogue: 0,0:02:13.19,0:02:16.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if the countries implement\Nthe climate commitments
Dialogue: 0,0:02:16.44,0:02:18.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that they've made in Paris
Dialogue: 0,0:02:18.50,0:02:21.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,between now and 2040.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:21.16,0:02:25.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It shows basically CO2 emissions\Naround the world
Dialogue: 0,0:02:25.56,0:02:28.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,over the next 30 years.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:28.44,0:02:30.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There are three things\Nthat you need to look at
Dialogue: 0,0:02:30.63,0:02:32.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and appreciate.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:32.24,0:02:36.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One, CO2 emissions are expected\Nto continue to grow
Dialogue: 0,0:02:36.53,0:02:39.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for the next 30 years.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:39.46,0:02:42.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In order to control climate,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:42.20,0:02:46.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CO2 emissions have to literally go to zero
Dialogue: 0,0:02:46.12,0:02:50.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because it's the cumulative emissions\Nthat drive heating on the planet.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:50.44,0:02:54.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This should tell you that we are losing\Nthe race to fossil fuels.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:55.73,0:02:57.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The second thing you should notice
Dialogue: 0,0:02:57.61,0:02:59.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that the bulk of the growth
Dialogue: 0,0:02:59.75,0:03:01.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,comes from the developing countries,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:01.85,0:03:04.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from China, from India,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:04.02,0:03:05.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from the rest of the world,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:05.44,0:03:09.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which includes South Africa\Nand Indonesia and Brazil,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:09.02,0:03:12.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as most of these countries\Nmove their people
Dialogue: 0,0:03:12.20,0:03:15.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,into the lower range of lifestyles
Dialogue: 0,0:03:15.29,0:03:17.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we literally take for granted
Dialogue: 0,0:03:17.84,0:03:20.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the developed world.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:20.50,0:03:22.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The final thing that you should notice
Dialogue: 0,0:03:22.90,0:03:25.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that each year,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:25.14,0:03:29.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about 10 gigatons of carbon\Nare getting added
Dialogue: 0,0:03:29.91,0:03:33.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to the planet's atmosphere,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:33.18,0:03:36.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then diffusing into the ocean\Nand into the land.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:36.08,0:03:42.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's on top of the 550 gigatons\Nthat are in place today.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:42.19,0:03:43.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,At the end of 30 years,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:43.98,0:03:46.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we will have put 850 gigatons
Dialogue: 0,0:03:46.50,0:03:49.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of carbon into the air,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:49.09,0:03:51.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that probably goes a long way
Dialogue: 0,0:03:51.51,0:03:55.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,towards locking in\Na 2-4 degree C increase
Dialogue: 0,0:03:55.61,0:03:58.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in global mean surface temperatures,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:58.25,0:04:01.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,locking in ocean acidification,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:01.30,0:04:04.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and locking in sea level rise.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:04.30,0:04:06.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, this is a projection
Dialogue: 0,0:04:06.06,0:04:07.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,made by men
Dialogue: 0,0:04:07.77,0:04:10.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by the actions of society,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:10.65,0:04:14.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it's ours to change, not to accept.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:14.06,0:04:18.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But the magnitude of the problem\Nis something we need to appreciate.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:18.82,0:04:21.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Different nations make\Ndifferent energy choices.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:21.39,0:04:23.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's a function\Nof their natural resources.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:23.66,0:04:25.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's a function of their climate.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:25.50,0:04:30.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's a function of the development path\Nthat they've followed as a society.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:30.86,0:04:34.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's a function of where\Non the surface of the planet they are.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:34.28,0:04:36.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Are they where it's dark\Na lot of the time,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:36.80,0:04:39.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or are they at the mid-latitudes?
Dialogue: 0,0:04:39.18,0:04:41.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Many, many, many things
Dialogue: 0,0:04:41.09,0:04:43.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,go into the choices of countries,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:43.27,0:04:46.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they each make a different choice.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:46.36,0:04:50.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The overwhelming thing\Nthat we need to appreciate
Dialogue: 0,0:04:50.06,0:04:52.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is the choice that China has made.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:52.70,0:04:54.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,China has made the choice,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:54.78,0:04:58.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and will make the choice, to run on coal.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:58.28,0:05:00.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The United States has an alternative.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:00.52,0:05:02.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It can run on natural gas
Dialogue: 0,0:05:02.18,0:05:06.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as a result of the inventions\Nof fracking and shale gas
Dialogue: 0,0:05:06.03,0:05:07.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which we have here.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:07.53,0:05:09.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They provide an alternative.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:09.48,0:05:14.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The OECD Europe has a choice.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:14.09,0:05:17.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It has renewables that it can afford\Nto deploy in Germany,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:17.18,0:05:19.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because it's rich enough\Nto afford to do it.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:19.62,0:05:25.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The French and the British\Nshow interest in nuclear power.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:25.90,0:05:30.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Eastern Europe, still very heavily\Ncommitted to natural gas and to coal,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:30.51,0:05:35.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and with natural gas that comes from\NRussia, with all of its entanglements.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:35.56,0:05:38.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,China has many fewer choices
Dialogue: 0,0:05:38.18,0:05:42.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and a much harder row to hoe.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:42.96,0:05:44.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you look at China,\Nand you ask yourself,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:44.87,0:05:47.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,why has coal been important to it,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:47.09,0:05:49.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you have to remember what China's done.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:49.32,0:05:53.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,China brought people to power,\Nnot power to people.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:53.48,0:05:56.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It didn't do rural electrification.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:56.43,0:05:58.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It urbanized.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:58.15,0:06:00.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It urbanized by taking low-cost labor
Dialogue: 0,0:06:00.76,0:06:02.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and low-cost energy,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:02.18,0:06:04.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,creating export industries
Dialogue: 0,0:06:04.12,0:06:07.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that could fund a tremendous\Namount of growth.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:07.43,0:06:09.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If we look at China's path,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:09.76,0:06:14.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,all of us know that prosperity in China\Nhas dramatically increased.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:14.64,0:06:19.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In 1980, 80 percent of China's population
Dialogue: 0,0:06:19.28,0:06:22.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,lived below the extreme poverty level,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:22.70,0:06:26.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,below the level of having\Na $1.90 per person per day.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:26.86,0:06:31.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,By the year 2000, only 20 percent\Nof China's population
Dialogue: 0,0:06:31.93,0:06:35.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,lived below the extreme poverty level,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:35.46,0:06:37.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a remarkable feat,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:37.90,0:06:41.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,admittedly with some costs\Nin civil liberties that would be tough
Dialogue: 0,0:06:41.10,0:06:44.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to accept in the Western world.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:44.64,0:06:47.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But the impact of all that wealth
Dialogue: 0,0:06:47.57,0:06:51.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,allowed people to get\Nmassively better nutrition.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:51.38,0:06:54.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It allowed water pipes to be placed.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:54.22,0:06:56.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It allowed sewage pipes to be placed,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:56.71,0:07:00.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,dramatic decrease in diarrheal diseases,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:00.10,0:07:04.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at the cost of some outdoor air pollution.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:04.21,0:07:06.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But in 1980, and even today,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:06.37,0:07:10.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the number one killer in China\Nis indoor air pollution,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:10.83,0:07:15.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because people do not have access\Nto clean cooking and heating fuels.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:16.09,0:07:18.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In fact, in 2040,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:18.76,0:07:21.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's still estimated
Dialogue: 0,0:07:21.52,0:07:24.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that 200 million people in China
Dialogue: 0,0:07:24.59,0:07:26.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,will not have access
Dialogue: 0,0:07:26.66,0:07:29.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to clean cooking fuels.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:29.23,0:07:32.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They have a remarkable path to follow.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:32.37,0:07:37.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,India also needs to meet the needs\Nof its own people,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:37.91,0:07:40.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it's going to do that by burning coal.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:40.48,0:07:43.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When we look at the EIA's projections
Dialogue: 0,0:07:43.35,0:07:46.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of coal burning in India,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:46.81,0:07:50.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,India will supply nearly four times\Nas much of its energy
Dialogue: 0,0:07:50.37,0:07:54.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from coal as it will from renewables.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:54.82,0:07:58.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's not because they don't know\Nthe alternatives.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:58.07,0:08:02.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's because rich countries\Ncan do what they choose,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:02.24,0:08:05.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,poor countries do what they must.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:05.93,0:08:10.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So what can we do to stop\Ncoal's emissions in time?
Dialogue: 0,0:08:10.87,0:08:15.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What can we do that changes\Nthis forecast that's in front of us?
Dialogue: 0,0:08:15.76,0:08:17.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because it's a forecast\Nthat we can change
Dialogue: 0,0:08:17.100,0:08:20.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if we have the will to do it.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:20.96,0:08:24.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,First of all, we have to think\Nabout the magnitude of the problem.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:24.71,0:08:26.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Between now and 2040,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:26.96,0:08:30.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,800 to 1,600 new coal plants
Dialogue: 0,0:08:30.35,0:08:33.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are going to be built around the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:33.62,0:08:38.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This week, between one and three\None gigawatt coal plants
Dialogue: 0,0:08:38.72,0:08:41.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are being turned on around the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:41.75,0:08:45.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's happening regardless\Nof what we want,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:45.96,0:08:48.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because the people\Nthat rule their countries,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:48.42,0:08:50.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,assessing the interests of their citizens,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:50.71,0:08:54.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,have decided it's in the interest\Nof their citizens to do that.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:54.89,0:08:57.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that's going to happen
Dialogue: 0,0:08:57.15,0:08:59.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,unless they have a better alternative,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:59.73,0:09:02.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and every 100 of those plants
Dialogue: 0,0:09:02.37,0:09:05.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,will use up between one percent
Dialogue: 0,0:09:05.34,0:09:06.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and three percent
Dialogue: 0,0:09:06.81,0:09:09.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of the Earth's climate budget.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:09.01,0:09:12.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So every day that you go home\Nthinking that you should do something
Dialogue: 0,0:09:12.79,0:09:14.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about global warming,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:14.32,0:09:16.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at the end of that week, remember
Dialogue: 0,0:09:16.63,0:09:18.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,somebody fired up a coal plant
Dialogue: 0,0:09:18.64,0:09:20.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's going to run for 50 years
Dialogue: 0,0:09:20.97,0:09:25.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and take away your ability to change it.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:25.55,0:09:27.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What we've forgotten is something
Dialogue: 0,0:09:27.64,0:09:30.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that Vinod Khosla used to talk about,\Na man of Indian ethnicity
Dialogue: 0,0:09:30.70,0:09:32.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but an American venture capitalist.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:32.23,0:09:36.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And he said, back in the early 2000s
Dialogue: 0,0:09:36.30,0:09:40.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that if you needed to get China and India\Noff of fossil fuels,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:40.48,0:09:44.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you had to create a technology\Nthat passed the Chindia test,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:44.51,0:09:48.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Chindia being the appending\Nof the two words.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:48.06,0:09:50.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It had to be first of all viable,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:50.36,0:09:53.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,meaning that technically, they could\Nimplement it in their country,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:53.98,0:09:58.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that it would be accepted\Nby the people in the country.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:58.02,0:10:01.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Two, it had to be a technology
Dialogue: 0,0:10:01.95,0:10:05.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that was scalable,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:05.03,0:10:08.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that it could deliver the same benefits
Dialogue: 0,0:10:08.00,0:10:10.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on the same timetable as fossil fuels,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:10.84,0:10:15.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so that they can enjoy the kind of life,\Nagain, that we take for granted.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:15.65,0:10:18.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And third, it had to be cost-effective
Dialogue: 0,0:10:18.30,0:10:21.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,without subsidy or without mandate.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:21.49,0:10:24.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It had to stand on its own two feet.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:24.17,0:10:26.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It could not be maintained\Nfor that many people
Dialogue: 0,0:10:26.72,0:10:31.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if in fact those countries\Nhad to go begging
Dialogue: 0,0:10:31.01,0:10:35.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or had some foreign countries say,\NI won't trade with you,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:35.07,0:10:40.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in order to get the technology\Nshift to occur.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:40.37,0:10:43.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you look at the Chindia test,\Nwe simply have not come up
Dialogue: 0,0:10:43.67,0:10:46.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with alternatives that meet that test.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:46.98,0:10:50.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's what the EIA forecast tells us.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:50.86,0:10:54.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,China's building 800 gigawatts of coal,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:54.87,0:10:57.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,400 gigawatts of hydro,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:57.70,0:11:00.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about 200 gigawatts of nuclear,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:00.39,0:11:02.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and on an energy equivalent basis,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:02.58,0:11:04.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,adjusting for intermittency,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:04.65,0:11:07.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about 100 gigawatts of renewables.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:07.74,0:11:10.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,800 gigawatts of coal.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:10.03,0:11:13.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They're doing that knowing the costs\Nbetter than any other country,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:13.38,0:11:16.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,knowing the need better\Nthan any other country,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:16.64,0:11:19.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but that's what they're aiming for in 2040
Dialogue: 0,0:11:19.21,0:11:22.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,unless we give them a better choice.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:22.20,0:11:26.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,To give them a better choice, it's\Ngoing to have to meet the Chindia test.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:26.32,0:11:29.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you look at all the alternatives\Nthat are out there,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:29.46,0:11:31.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there are really two\Nthat come near to meeting it.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:31.86,0:11:36.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,First is this area of new nuclear\Nthat I'll talk about in just a second.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:36.11,0:11:39.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's a new generation of nuclear plants\Nthat are on the drawing boards
Dialogue: 0,0:11:39.43,0:11:40.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,around the world,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:40.60,0:11:43.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the people who are\Ndeveloping these say,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:43.09,0:11:47.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we can get them\Nin position to demo by 2025
Dialogue: 0,0:11:47.49,0:11:51.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and to scale by 2030\Nif you will just let us.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:51.18,0:11:54.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The second alternative\Nthat could be there in time
Dialogue: 0,0:11:54.43,0:11:56.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is utility-scale solar
Dialogue: 0,0:11:56.87,0:11:58.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,backed up with natural gas
Dialogue: 0,0:11:58.84,0:12:00.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which we can use today
Dialogue: 0,0:12:00.40,0:12:04.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,versus the batteries\Nwhich are still under development.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:04.74,0:12:07.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So what's holding new nuclear back?
Dialogue: 0,0:12:07.78,0:12:11.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Outdated regulations\Nand yesterday's mindsets.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:11.83,0:12:14.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We have not used our latest\Nscientific thinking
Dialogue: 0,0:12:14.57,0:12:16.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on radiological health
Dialogue: 0,0:12:16.28,0:12:18.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to think how we communicate\Nwith the public
Dialogue: 0,0:12:18.85,0:12:21.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and govern the testing\Nof new nuclear reactors.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:21.86,0:12:23.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We have new scientific knowledge
Dialogue: 0,0:12:23.85,0:12:25.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we need to use
Dialogue: 0,0:12:25.95,0:12:28.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in order to improve the way
Dialogue: 0,0:12:28.27,0:12:30.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we regulate nuclear industry.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:30.98,0:12:33.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The second thing is we've got a mindset
Dialogue: 0,0:12:33.46,0:12:36.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that it takes 25 years\Nand 2 to 5 billion dollars
Dialogue: 0,0:12:36.18,0:12:37.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to develop a nuclear power plant.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:37.94,0:12:42.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That comes from the historical,\Nmilitary mindset
Dialogue: 0,0:12:42.44,0:12:45.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of the places that\Nnuclear power came from.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:45.40,0:12:47.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These new nuclear ventures are saying
Dialogue: 0,0:12:47.64,0:12:51.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that they can deliver power\Nfor 5 cents per kilowatt/hour,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:51.86,0:12:54.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they can deliver it\Nfor 100 gigawatts a year,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:54.34,0:12:56.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they can demo it by 2025,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:56.93,0:13:00.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they can deliver it in scale by 2030,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:00.82,0:13:03.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if only we give them a chance.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:03.88,0:13:07.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Right now, we're basically\Nwaiting for a miracle.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:07.86,0:13:09.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What we need is a choice.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:09.95,0:13:12.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If they can't make it safe,\Nif they can't make it cheap,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:12.78,0:13:14.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it should not be deployed.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:14.62,0:13:18.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But what I want you to do\Nis not carry an idea forward,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:18.70,0:13:20.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but write your leaders,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:20.54,0:13:22.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,write the head of the NGOs you support,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:22.81,0:13:25.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and tell them to give you the choice,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:25.98,0:13:27.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not the past.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:27.45,0:13:29.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thank you very much.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:29.17,0:13:33.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)