0:00:02.639,0:00:04.114
It's easy to forget that last night,

0:00:04.114,0:00:08.325
one billion people went to sleep[br]without access to electricity.

0:00:08.325,0:00:10.512
One billion people.

0:00:10.512,0:00:13.505
Two and a half billion people[br]did not have access

0:00:13.505,0:00:15.553
to clean cooking fuels

0:00:15.553,0:00:17.747
or clean heating fuels.

0:00:17.747,0:00:21.134
Those are the problems[br]in the developing world,

0:00:21.134,0:00:24.324
and it's easy for us not to be[br]empathetic with those people

0:00:24.324,0:00:26.331
who seem so distant from us.

0:00:26.331,0:00:29.585
But even in our own world,[br]the developed world,

0:00:29.585,0:00:33.480
we see the tension of stagnant economies

0:00:33.480,0:00:36.393
impacting the lives of people around us.

0:00:36.393,0:00:39.698
We see it in whole pieces of the economy,

0:00:39.698,0:00:43.220
where the people involved[br]have lost hope about the future

0:00:43.220,0:00:45.529
and despair about the present.

0:00:45.529,0:00:47.673
We see that in the Brexit vote.

0:00:47.673,0:00:51.488
We see that in the Sanders/Trump[br]campaigns in my own country.

0:00:51.488,0:00:56.619
But even in countries as recently[br]turning the corner

0:00:56.619,0:00:58.657
towards being in the developed world,

0:00:58.657,0:00:59.807
in China,

0:00:59.807,0:01:02.407
we see the difficulty[br]that President Xi has

0:01:02.407,0:01:07.931
as he begins to unemploy so many people[br]in his coal and mining industries

0:01:07.931,0:01:11.366
who see no future for themselves.

0:01:11.366,0:01:14.392
As we as a society figure out[br]how to manage

0:01:14.392,0:01:16.267
the problems of the developed world

0:01:16.267,0:01:18.259
and the problems of the developing world,

0:01:18.259,0:01:21.131
we have to look at how we move forward

0:01:21.131,0:01:23.616
and manage the environmental impact

0:01:23.616,0:01:25.868
of those decisions.

0:01:25.868,0:01:28.292
We've been working on this problem[br]for 25 years, since Rio,

0:01:28.292,0:01:31.223
the Kyoto Protocols.

0:01:31.223,0:01:33.047
Our most recent move

0:01:33.047,0:01:34.737
is the Paris treaty,

0:01:34.737,0:01:37.112
and the resulting climate agreements

0:01:37.112,0:01:40.233
that are being ratified[br]by nations around the world.

0:01:40.233,0:01:42.272
I think we can be very hopeful

0:01:42.272,0:01:45.629
that those agreements,[br]which are bottom-up agreements,

0:01:45.629,0:01:48.390
where nations have said[br]what they think they can do,

0:01:48.390,0:01:52.977
are genuine and forthcoming[br]for the vast majority of the parties.

0:01:52.977,0:01:55.229
The unfortunate thing

0:01:55.229,0:01:59.735
is that now, as we look[br]at the independent analyses

0:01:59.735,0:02:02.958
of what those climate treaties[br]are liable to yield,

0:02:02.958,0:02:07.037
the magnitude of the problem[br]before us becomes clear.

0:02:07.037,0:02:11.524
This is the United States[br]Energy Information Agency's assessment

0:02:11.524,0:02:13.186
of what will happen

0:02:13.186,0:02:16.440
if the countries implement[br]the climate commitments

0:02:16.440,0:02:18.495
that they've made in Paris

0:02:18.495,0:02:21.158
between now and 2040.

0:02:21.158,0:02:25.562
It shows basically CO2 emissions[br]around the world

0:02:25.562,0:02:28.443
over the next 30 years.

0:02:28.443,0:02:30.630
There are three things[br]that you need to look at

0:02:30.630,0:02:32.241
and appreciate.

0:02:32.241,0:02:36.531
One, CO2 emissions are expected[br]to continue to grow

0:02:36.531,0:02:39.456
for the next 30 years.

0:02:39.456,0:02:42.205
In order to control climate,

0:02:42.205,0:02:46.121
CO2 emissions have to literally go to zero

0:02:46.121,0:02:50.445
because it's the cumulative emissions[br]that drive heating on the planet.

0:02:50.445,0:02:54.982
This should tell you that we are losing[br]the race to fossil fuels.

0:02:55.726,0:02:57.612
The second thing you should notice

0:02:57.612,0:02:59.750
is that the bulk of the growth

0:02:59.750,0:03:01.853
comes from the developing countries,

0:03:01.853,0:03:04.025
from China, from India,

0:03:04.025,0:03:05.440
from the rest of the world,

0:03:05.440,0:03:09.024
which includes South Africa[br]and Indonesia and Brazil,

0:03:09.024,0:03:12.196
as most of these countries[br]move their people

0:03:12.196,0:03:15.288
into the lower range of lifestyles

0:03:15.288,0:03:17.842
that we literally take for granted

0:03:17.842,0:03:20.495
in the developed world.

0:03:20.495,0:03:22.902
The final thing that you should notice

0:03:22.902,0:03:25.138
is that each year,

0:03:25.138,0:03:29.911
about 10 gigatons of carbon[br]are getting added

0:03:29.911,0:03:33.176
to the planet's atmosphere,

0:03:33.176,0:03:36.075
and then diffusing into the ocean[br]and into the land.

0:03:36.075,0:03:42.189
That's on top of the 550 gigatons[br]that are in place today.

0:03:42.189,0:03:43.976
At the end of 30 years,

0:03:43.976,0:03:46.496
we will have put 850 gigatons

0:03:46.496,0:03:49.091
of carbon into the air,

0:03:49.091,0:03:51.511
and that probably goes a long way

0:03:51.511,0:03:55.606
towards locking in[br]a 2-4 degree C increase

0:03:55.606,0:03:58.252
in global mean surface temperatures,

0:03:58.252,0:04:01.299
locking in ocean acidification,

0:04:01.299,0:04:04.303
and locking in sea level rise.

0:04:04.303,0:04:06.063
Now, this is a projection

0:04:06.063,0:04:07.769
made by men

0:04:07.769,0:04:10.649
by the actions of society,

0:04:10.649,0:04:14.055
and it's ours to change, not to accept.

0:04:14.055,0:04:18.823
But the magnitude of the problem[br]is something we need to appreciate.

0:04:18.823,0:04:21.388
Different nations make[br]different energy choices.

0:04:21.388,0:04:23.657
It's a function[br]of their natural resources.

0:04:23.657,0:04:25.499
It's a function of their climate.

0:04:25.499,0:04:30.863
It's a function of the development path[br]that they've followed as a society.

0:04:30.863,0:04:34.279
It's a function of where[br]on the surface of the planet they are.

0:04:34.279,0:04:36.802
Are they where it's dark[br]a lot of the time,

0:04:36.802,0:04:39.180
or are they at the mid-latitudes?

0:04:39.180,0:04:41.086
Many, many, many things

0:04:41.086,0:04:43.273
go into the choices of countries,

0:04:43.273,0:04:46.359
and they each make a different choice.

0:04:46.359,0:04:50.064
The overwhelming thing[br]that we need to appreciate

0:04:50.064,0:04:52.695
is the choice that China has made.

0:04:52.695,0:04:54.779
China has made the choice,

0:04:54.779,0:04:58.284
and will make the choice, to run on coal.

0:04:58.284,0:05:00.521
The United States has an alternative.

0:05:00.521,0:05:02.182
It can run on natural gas

0:05:02.182,0:05:06.031
as a result of the inventions[br]of fracking and shale gas

0:05:06.031,0:05:07.526
which we have here.

0:05:07.526,0:05:09.482
They provide an alternative.

0:05:09.482,0:05:14.088
The OECD Europe has a choice.

0:05:14.088,0:05:17.180
It has renewables that it can afford[br]to deploy in Germany,

0:05:17.180,0:05:19.615
because it's rich enough[br]to afford to do it.

0:05:19.615,0:05:25.901
The French and the British[br]show interest in nuclear power.

0:05:25.901,0:05:30.514
Eastern Europe, still very heavily[br]committed to natural gas and to coal,

0:05:30.514,0:05:35.558
and with natural gas that comes from[br]Russia, with all of its entanglements.

0:05:35.558,0:05:38.176
China has many fewer choices

0:05:38.176,0:05:42.962
and a much harder row to hoe.

0:05:42.962,0:05:44.869
If you look at China,[br]and you ask yourself,

0:05:44.869,0:05:47.088
why has coal been important to it,

0:05:47.088,0:05:49.324
you have to remember what China's done.

0:05:49.324,0:05:53.484
China brought people to power,[br]not power to people.

0:05:53.484,0:05:56.427
It didn't do rural electrification.

0:05:56.427,0:05:58.153
It urbanized.

0:05:58.153,0:06:00.757
It urbanized by taking low-cost labor

0:06:00.757,0:06:02.182
and low-cost energy,

0:06:02.182,0:06:04.123
creating export industries

0:06:04.123,0:06:07.427
that could fund a tremendous[br]amount of growth.

0:06:07.427,0:06:09.763
If we look at China's path,

0:06:09.763,0:06:14.645
all of us know that prosperity in China[br]has dramatically increased.

0:06:14.645,0:06:19.283
In 1980, 80 percent of China's population

0:06:19.283,0:06:22.700
lived below the extreme poverty level,

0:06:22.700,0:06:26.864
below the level of having[br]a $1.90 per person per day.

0:06:26.864,0:06:31.927
By the year 2000, only 20 percent[br]of China's population

0:06:31.927,0:06:35.462
lived below the extreme poverty level,

0:06:35.462,0:06:37.900
a remarkable feat,

0:06:37.900,0:06:41.104
admittedly with some costs[br]in civil liberties that would be tough

0:06:41.104,0:06:44.636
to accept in the Western world.

0:06:44.636,0:06:47.566
But the impact of all that wealth

0:06:47.566,0:06:51.382
allowed people to get[br]massively better nutrition.

0:06:51.382,0:06:54.223
It allowed water pipes to be placed.

0:06:54.223,0:06:56.706
It allowed sewage pipes to be placed,

0:06:56.706,0:07:00.102
dramatic decrease in diarrheal diseases,

0:07:00.102,0:07:04.207
at the cost of some outdoor air pollution.

0:07:04.207,0:07:06.374
But in 1980, and even today,

0:07:06.374,0:07:10.833
the number one killer in China[br]is indoor air pollution,

0:07:10.833,0:07:15.602
because people do not have access[br]to clean cooking and heating fuels.

0:07:16.091,0:07:18.756
In fact, in 2040,

0:07:18.756,0:07:21.518
it's still estimated

0:07:21.518,0:07:24.593
that 200 million people in China

0:07:24.593,0:07:26.664
will not have access

0:07:26.664,0:07:29.228
to clean cooking fuels.

0:07:29.228,0:07:32.370
They have a remarkable path to follow.

0:07:32.370,0:07:37.911
India also needs to meet the needs[br]of its own people,

0:07:37.911,0:07:40.475
and it's going to do that by burning coal.

0:07:40.475,0:07:43.353
When we look at the EIA's projections

0:07:43.353,0:07:46.807
of coal burning in India,

0:07:46.807,0:07:50.374
India will supply nearly four times[br]as much of its energy

0:07:50.374,0:07:54.815
from coal as it will from renewables.

0:07:54.815,0:07:58.072
It's not because they don't know[br]the alternatives.

0:07:58.072,0:08:02.242
It's because rich countries[br]can do what they choose,

0:08:02.242,0:08:05.929
poor countries do what they must.

0:08:05.929,0:08:10.866
So what can we do to stop[br]coal's emissions in time?

0:08:10.866,0:08:15.763
What can we do that changes[br]this forecast that's in front of us?

0:08:15.763,0:08:17.999
Because it's a forecast[br]that we can change

0:08:17.999,0:08:20.956
if we have the will to do it.

0:08:20.956,0:08:24.711
First of all, we have to think[br]about the magnitude of the problem.

0:08:24.711,0:08:26.965
Between now and 2040,

0:08:26.965,0:08:30.347
800 to 1,600 new coal plants

0:08:30.347,0:08:33.618
are going to be built around the world.

0:08:33.618,0:08:38.718
This week, between one and three[br]one gigawatt coal plants

0:08:38.718,0:08:41.748
are being turned on around the world.

0:08:41.748,0:08:45.955
That's happening regardless[br]of what we want,

0:08:45.955,0:08:48.423
because the people[br]that rule their countries,

0:08:48.423,0:08:50.712
assessing the interests of their citizens,

0:08:50.712,0:08:54.887
have decided it's in the interest[br]of their citizens to do that.

0:08:54.887,0:08:57.153
And that's going to happen

0:08:57.153,0:08:59.726
unless they have a better alternative,

0:08:59.726,0:09:02.366
and every 100 of those plants

0:09:02.366,0:09:05.343
will use up between one percent

0:09:05.343,0:09:06.807
and three percent

0:09:06.807,0:09:09.009
of the Earth's climate budget.

0:09:09.009,0:09:12.791
So every day that you go home[br]thinking that you should do something

0:09:12.791,0:09:14.320
about global warming,

0:09:14.320,0:09:16.630
at the end of that week, remember

0:09:16.630,0:09:18.644
somebody fired up a coal plant

0:09:18.644,0:09:20.967
that's going to run for 50 years

0:09:20.967,0:09:25.550
and take away your ability to change it.

0:09:25.550,0:09:27.639
What we've forgotten is something

0:09:27.639,0:09:30.696
that Vinod Khosla used to talk about,[br]a man of Indian ethnicity

0:09:30.696,0:09:32.227
but an American venture capitalist.

0:09:32.227,0:09:36.304
And he said, back in the early 2000s

0:09:36.304,0:09:40.481
that if you needed to get China and India[br]off of fossil fuels,

0:09:40.481,0:09:44.509
you had to create a technology[br]that passed the Chindia test,

0:09:44.509,0:09:48.061
Chindia being the appending[br]of the two words.

0:09:48.061,0:09:50.363
It had to be first of all viable,

0:09:50.363,0:09:53.980
meaning that technically, they could[br]implement it in their country,

0:09:53.980,0:09:58.025
and that it would be accepted[br]by the people in the country.

0:09:58.025,0:10:01.954
Two, it had to be a technology

0:10:01.954,0:10:05.030
that was scalable,

0:10:05.030,0:10:08.005
that it could deliver the same benefits

0:10:08.005,0:10:10.837
on the same timetable as fossil fuels,

0:10:10.837,0:10:15.654
so that they can enjoy the kind of life,[br]again, that we take for granted.

0:10:15.654,0:10:18.298
And third, it had to be cost-effective

0:10:18.298,0:10:21.488
without subsidy or without mandate.

0:10:21.488,0:10:24.170
It had to stand on its own two feet.

0:10:24.170,0:10:26.718
It could not be maintained[br]for that many people

0:10:26.718,0:10:31.009
if in fact those countries[br]had to go begging

0:10:31.009,0:10:35.073
or had some foreign countries say,[br]I won't trade with you,

0:10:35.073,0:10:40.367
in order to get the technology[br]shift to occur.

0:10:40.367,0:10:43.670
If you look at the Chindia test,[br]we simply have not come up

0:10:43.670,0:10:46.984
with alternatives that meet that test.

0:10:46.984,0:10:50.861
That's what the EIA forecast tells us.

0:10:50.861,0:10:54.866
China's building 800 gigawatts of coal,

0:10:54.866,0:10:57.695
400 gigawatts of hydro,

0:10:57.695,0:11:00.393
about 200 gigawatts of nuclear,

0:11:00.393,0:11:02.578
and on an energy equivalent basis,

0:11:02.578,0:11:04.654
adjusting for intermittency,

0:11:04.654,0:11:07.745
about 100 gigawatts of renewables.

0:11:07.745,0:11:10.027
800 gigawatts of coal.

0:11:10.027,0:11:13.381
They're doing that knowing the costs[br]better than any other country,

0:11:13.381,0:11:16.637
knowing the need better[br]than any other country,

0:11:16.637,0:11:19.209
but that's what they're aiming for in 2040

0:11:19.209,0:11:22.199
unless we give them a better choice.

0:11:22.199,0:11:26.322
To give them a better choice, it's[br]going to have to meet the Chindia test.

0:11:26.322,0:11:29.462
If you look at all the alternatives[br]that are out there,

0:11:29.462,0:11:31.865
there are really two[br]that come near to meeting it.

0:11:31.865,0:11:36.107
First is this area of new nuclear[br]that I'll talk about in just a second.

0:11:36.107,0:11:39.431
It's a new generation of nuclear plants[br]that are on the drawing boards

0:11:39.431,0:11:40.601
around the world,

0:11:40.601,0:11:43.093
and the people who are[br]developing these say,

0:11:43.093,0:11:47.491
we can get them[br]in position to demo by 2025

0:11:47.491,0:11:51.176
and to scale by 2030[br]if you will just let us.

0:11:51.176,0:11:54.429
The second alternative[br]that could be there in time

0:11:54.429,0:11:56.870
is utility-scale solar

0:11:56.870,0:11:58.837
backed up with natural gas

0:11:58.837,0:12:00.399
which we can use today

0:12:00.399,0:12:04.740
versus the batteries[br]which are still under development.

0:12:04.740,0:12:07.782
So what's holding new nuclear back?

0:12:07.782,0:12:11.827
Outdated regulations[br]and yesterday's mindsets.

0:12:11.827,0:12:14.573
We have not used our latest[br]scientific thinking

0:12:14.573,0:12:16.283
on radiological health

0:12:16.283,0:12:18.848
to think how we communicate[br]with the public

0:12:18.848,0:12:21.857
and govern the testing[br]of new nuclear reactors.

0:12:21.857,0:12:23.846
We have new scientific knowledge

0:12:23.846,0:12:25.950
that we need to use

0:12:25.950,0:12:28.269
in order to improve the way

0:12:28.269,0:12:30.983
we regulate nuclear industry.

0:12:30.983,0:12:33.464
The second thing is we've got a mindset

0:12:33.464,0:12:36.178
that it takes 25 years[br]and 2 to 5 billion dollars

0:12:36.178,0:12:37.937
to develop a nuclear power plant.

0:12:37.937,0:12:42.443
That comes from the historical,[br]military mindset

0:12:42.443,0:12:45.403
of the places that[br]nuclear power came from.

0:12:45.403,0:12:47.638
These new nuclear ventures are saying

0:12:47.638,0:12:51.864
that they can deliver power[br]for 5 cents per kilowatt/hour,

0:12:51.864,0:12:54.339
they can deliver it[br]for 100 gigawatts a year,

0:12:54.339,0:12:56.929
they can demo it by 2025,

0:12:56.929,0:13:00.825
and they can deliver it in scale by 2030,

0:13:00.825,0:13:03.884
if only we give them a chance.

0:13:03.884,0:13:07.862
Right now, we're basically[br]waiting for a miracle.

0:13:07.862,0:13:09.952
What we need is a choice.

0:13:09.952,0:13:12.780
If they can't make it safe,[br]if they can't make it cheap,

0:13:12.780,0:13:14.621
it should not be deployed.

0:13:14.621,0:13:18.699
But what I want you to do[br]is not carry an idea forward,

0:13:18.699,0:13:20.540
but write your leaders,

0:13:20.540,0:13:22.808
write the head of the NGOs you support,

0:13:22.808,0:13:25.983
and tell them to give you the choice,

0:13:25.983,0:13:27.446
not the past.

0:13:27.446,0:13:29.171
Thank you very much.

0:13:29.171,0:13:33.462
(Applause)