WEBVTT 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 How many of your are creatives? 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Designers, engineers, entrepreneurs, artists, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 or maybe you just have a really big imagination. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Show of hands? 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 That's most of you. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 I have some news for us creatives. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Over the course of the next 20 years, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 more will change around the way we do our work 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 than has happened in the last 2,000. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 In fact, I think we're at the dawn of a new age in human history. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Now, there have been four major historical eras defined by the way we work. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 The hunter-gatherer age lasted several million years. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 And then the Agricultural Age lasted several thousand years. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 The Industrial Age lasted a couple of centuries, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and now the Information Age has lasted just a few decades. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 And now today, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 we're on the cusp of our next great era as a species. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Welcome to the Augemented Age. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 In this new era, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 your natural human capabilities are going to be augmented by computational systems 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 that help you think, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 robotic systems that help you make, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and a digital nervous system 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 that connects you to the world fay beyond your natural senses. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Let's stated with Cognitive Augmentation. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 How many of you are augmented cyborgs? 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 (Laughter) 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 I would actually argue that we're already augmented. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Imagine you're at a party, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and somebody asks you a question that you don't know the answer to. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 If you have one of these, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 in a few seconds, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 you can know the answer. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 But this is just a primitive beginning. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Even Siri is just a passive tool. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 In fact, for the past three-and-a-half million years, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 the tools that we've had have been completely passive. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 They do exactly what we tell them and nothing more. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Our very first tool only cut where we struck it. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 The chisel only carves where the artist points it. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 And even our most advanced tools do nothing without out explicit direction. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 In fact, to date -- 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 this is something that frustrates me -- 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 we've always been limited 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 by this need to manually push our wills into our tools, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 like manual -- 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 like literally using our hands, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 even with computers. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 But I'm more like Scotty in "Star Trek." 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 (Laughter) 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 I want to have a conversation with a computer. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 I want to say, "Computer, let's design a car," 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and the computer shows me a car. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 And I say, "No, more fast-looking, and less German," 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and bang, the computer shows me an option. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 (Laughter) 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 That conversation might be a little ways off, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 it's actually probably less than any of us think, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 but right now, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 we're working on it. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Tools are making this leap from being passive to being generative. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Generative design tools use a computer and algorithms 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 to synthesize geometry -- 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 to come up with new designs all by themselves. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 All it needs are your goals and your constraints. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 I'll give you an example. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 In the case of this Aerial Drone [Chassy?], 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 all you would need to do is tell it something like, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 it has four propellers, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 you want it to be as lightweight as possible, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and you need it to be aerodynamically efficient. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 And then what the computer does 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 is it explores the entire solution space: 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 every single possibility that solves and meets your criteria -- 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 millions of them. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 It takes big computers to do this, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 but it comes back to us with designs 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 that we by ourselves never could've imagined. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 And the computer's coming up with this stuff all by itself, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 no one ever drew anything, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and it started completely from scratch. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 And by the way, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 it's no accident 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 that the drone body looks just like the pelvis of a flying squirrel. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 (Laughter) 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 It's because the algorithms are designed to word the same way that evolution does. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 What's exciting is we're starting to see this technology out in the real world. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 We've been working with [Airbus] for a couple of years 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 on this concept plane for the future. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 It's aways out still, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 but just recently we used a generative design AI 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 to come up with this. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 This is a 3D printed cabin partition that's been designed by a computer. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 It's stronger than the original yet half the weight, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and it will be flying in the Airbus [A-320] later this year. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 So computers can now generate. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 They can come up with their own solutions to our well-defined problems. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 But they're not inutitive. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 They still have to start from scratch every single time, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and that's because they never learn, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 unlike Maggie. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 (Laughter) 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Maggie's actually smarter than our most advanced design tools. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 What do I mean by that? 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 If her owner picks up that leash, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Maggie knows with a fair degree of certainty 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 that it's time to for a walk. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 And how did she learn? 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Well, every time the owner picked up the leash, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 they went for a walk. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 And Maggie did three things: 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 she had to pay attention, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 she had to remember what happened 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and she had to retain and create a pattern in her mind. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Interestingly, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 that's exactly computer scientists have been trying to get AIs to do 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 for the last 60 or so years. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Back in 1952, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 they build this computer that could play Tic-Tac-Toe. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Big deal. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Then 45 years later, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 1997, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Deep Blue beats [Casperoff] at Chess. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 2011, Watson beats these two humans at Jeopardy, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 which is much harder for a computer to play than Chess is. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 In fact, rather than working from predefined recipes, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Watson had to use reasoning to overcome his human opponents. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 And then a couple of weeks ago, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 [Deep Minds' Alpha-Go] beats the world's best human at Go, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 which is the most difficult game that we have. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 In fact in Go, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 there are more possible moves than there are atoms in the universe. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 So in order to win, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 what Alpha-Go had to do was develop intuition, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and in fact, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 at some points, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Alpha-Go's programmers didn't understand why Alpha-Go was doing what it was doing. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 And things are moving really fast. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 I mean, consider -- 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 in the space of a human lifetime, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 computers have gone from a child's game 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 to what's recognized as the pinnacle of strategic thought. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 What's basically happening 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 is computers are going from being like Spock 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 to being a lot more like Kirk. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 (Laughter) 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Right? 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 From pure logic to intuition. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Would you cross this bridge? 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Most of you are saying, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 "Oh, hell no." 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 (Laughter) 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 And you arrived at that decision in a split second. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 You just sort of knew that that bridge was unsafe. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 And that's exactly the kind of intuition 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 that our deep learning systems are starting to develop right now. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Very soon you'll literally be able to show something that you've made, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 you've designed, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 to computer, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and it will look at it and say, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 "Mm, sorry homey, that will never work, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 you'll have to try again." 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Or you could ask it if people are going to like your next song, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 or your next flavor of ice cream. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Or, much more importantly, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 you could work with a computer to solve a problem that we've never faced before. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 For instance climate change. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 We're not doing a very good job on our own, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 we could certainly use all the help we can get. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 That's what I'm talking about: 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 technology amplifying our cognitive abilities 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 so we can imagine and design things 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 that were simply out of our reach as plain old unaugmented humans. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 So, what about making all of this crazy new stuff 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 that we're going to invent and design? 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 I think the era of human augmentation is as much about the physical world 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 as it is about the virtual, intellectual realm. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 So how will technology augment us? 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 In the physcial world, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 robotic systems. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 OK, there's certainly a fear that robots are going to take jobs from humans, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and that is true in certain sectors. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 But I'm much more interested in this idea 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 that humans and robots working together are going to augment each other, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and start to inhabit a new space. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 This is our applied research lab in San Francisco, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 where one of our areas of focus is advanced robotics, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 specifically human-robot collaboration. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 And this is Bishop, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 one of our robots. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 As an experiment, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 we set it up to help a person working in construction doing repetitive tasks. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Tasks like cutting out holes for outlets or light switches in dry wall. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 (Laughter) 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 So Bishop's human partner can tell what to do in plain English 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and simple gestures, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 kind of like talking to a dog. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 And then Bishop executes on those instructions 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 with perfect precision. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 We're using the human for what the human is good at, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 right? 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Awareness, perception and desicion making. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 And we're using the robot for what it's good at: 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 precision and repetitiveness. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Here's another cool project that Bishop worked on. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 The goal of this project, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 which we called, "The Hive," 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 was the prototype the experience of humans, computers and robots 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 all working together to solve a highly complex design problem. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 The humans acted as labor. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 They cruised around the construction site, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 they manipulated the bamboo -- 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 which by the way, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 because it's a non-icomorphic material, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 is super hard for robots to deal with. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 But then the robots did this fiber winding, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 which was almost impossible for a human to do. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 And then we had an AI that was controlling everything. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 It was telling the humans what to do, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 it was tell the robots what to do, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and keeping track of thousands of individual components. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 What's interesting is building this pavillion was simply not possible 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 without human, robot and AI augmenting each other. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 OK, I'll share one more project. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 This one's a little bit crazy. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 We're working with Amsterdam-based artist, [Youris Marvin and his team at MX3D] 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 to generatively design and robotically print 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 the world's first autonomously manufactured bridge. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 So, Youris and an AI are designing this thing right now, as we speak, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 in Amsterdam. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 And when we're done, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 we're going to hit Go, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and robots will start 3D printing in stainless steel, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and then they're going to keep printing without human intervention 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 until the bridge is finished. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 So as computers are going to augment our ability 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 to imagine and design new stuff, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 robotic systems are going to help us 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 build and make things that we've never been able to make before. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 But what about our ability to sense and control these things? 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 What about a nervous system for the things that we make? 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Our nervous system -- 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 the human nervous system -- 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 tells everything that's going on around us. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 But the nervous system of the things we make is rudimentary at best. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 For instance, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 a car doesn't tell the city's Public Works department 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 that it just hit a pothole at the corner of Broadway and Morrison; 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 A building doesn't tell its designers 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 whether or not the people inside like being there, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and the toy manufacturer doesn't know if a toy is actually being played with -- 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 how and where and whether or not it's any fun. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Look, I'm sure that the designers imagined this lifestyle for Barbie 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 when they designed her -- 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 right? 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 (Laughter) 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 But what if it turns out that Barbie's actually really lonely? 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 (Laughter) 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 If the designers had known what was really happening in the real world 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 with their designs -- 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 the road, the building, the Barbie -- 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 they could've used that knowledge 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 to create an experience that was better for the user. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 What's missing is a nervous system 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 connecting us to all of the things that we design, make and use. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 What if all of you had that kind of information flowing to you 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 from the things you create in the real world? 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 With all of the stuff we make, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 we spend a tremendous amount of money and energy -- 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 in fact last year about two trillion dollars -- 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 convincing people to buy the things that we've made. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 But if you had this connection to the things that you design and create, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 after they're out in the real world, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 after they've been sold, or launched or whatever, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 we could actually change that, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and go from making people want our stuff, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 to just making stuff that people want in the first place. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 The good news is we're working on digital nervous systems 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 that connect us to the things we design. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 We're working on one project with a couple of guys down in Los Angeles 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 called the Bandito Brothers, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and their team, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and one of the things these guys do is build insane cars 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 that do absolutely insane things. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 These guys are crazy. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 (Laughter) 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 In the best way. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 And what we're doing with them 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 is taking a traditions racecar [Chassy], 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and giving it a nervous system. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 So we instrumented it with dozens of censors, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and then we put a world-class driver behind the wheel, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 took it out to the desert 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and drove the hell out of it for a week. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 And the car's nervous system captured everything that was happening to car. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 We captured four billion data points. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 All of the forces that it was subjected to. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 And then we did something crazy. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 We took all of that data, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and plugged it into a generative design AI that we call, "Dreamcatcher." 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 So what do get when you give a design tool a nervous system, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and you ask it to build you the ultimate car [chassy]? 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 You get this. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 This is something that human could never have designed. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Except a human did design this, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 but it was a human that was augmented by a generative design AI, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 a digital nervous system, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and robots that can actually fabricate something like this.