WEBVTT 00:00:00.300 --> 00:00:02.341 I was only four years old 00:00:02.365 --> 00:00:05.276 when I saw my mother load a washing machine 00:00:05.300 --> 00:00:07.482 for the very first time in her life. 00:00:07.943 --> 00:00:09.919 That was a great day for my mother. 00:00:10.431 --> 00:00:13.276 My mother and father had been saving money for years 00:00:13.300 --> 00:00:15.340 to be able to buy that machine, 00:00:15.364 --> 00:00:17.410 and the first day it was going to be used, 00:00:17.434 --> 00:00:20.573 even Grandma was invited to see the machine. NOTE Paragraph 00:00:20.597 --> 00:00:21.733 (Laughter) NOTE Paragraph 00:00:21.757 --> 00:00:24.276 And Grandma was even more excited. 00:00:24.300 --> 00:00:28.600 Throughout her life, she had been heating water with firewood, 00:00:28.624 --> 00:00:32.634 and she had hand-washed laundry for seven children. 00:00:32.658 --> 00:00:37.686 And now, she was going to watch electricity do that work. NOTE Paragraph 00:00:38.300 --> 00:00:42.551 My mother carefully opened the door, 00:00:42.575 --> 00:00:46.004 and she loaded the laundry into the machine, 00:00:47.035 --> 00:00:48.227 like this. 00:00:48.251 --> 00:00:50.452 And then, when she closed the door, 00:00:50.476 --> 00:00:52.276 Grandma said, "No, no, no, no! 00:00:52.300 --> 00:00:55.300 Let me! Let me push the button!" NOTE Paragraph 00:00:55.324 --> 00:00:56.336 (Laughter) NOTE Paragraph 00:00:56.360 --> 00:00:58.982 And Grandma pushed the button, 00:00:59.006 --> 00:01:01.561 and she said, "Oh, fantastic! 00:01:01.585 --> 00:01:05.347 I want to see this! Give me a chair! Give me a chair! I want to see it," 00:01:05.371 --> 00:01:08.102 and she sat down in front of the machine, 00:01:08.126 --> 00:01:11.717 and she watched the entire washing program. NOTE Paragraph 00:01:11.741 --> 00:01:12.743 (Laughter) NOTE Paragraph 00:01:12.767 --> 00:01:14.192 She was mesmerized. 00:01:14.618 --> 00:01:19.046 To my grandmother, the washing machine was a miracle. NOTE Paragraph 00:01:19.966 --> 00:01:23.398 Today, in Sweden and other rich countries, 00:01:23.422 --> 00:01:27.158 people are using so many different machines. 00:01:27.182 --> 00:01:29.167 Look -- the homes are full of machines. 00:01:29.191 --> 00:01:31.276 I can't even name them all. 00:01:31.300 --> 00:01:34.783 And they also, when they want to travel, 00:01:34.807 --> 00:01:36.971 they use flying machines 00:01:36.995 --> 00:01:39.663 that can take them to remote destinations. 00:01:39.687 --> 00:01:40.912 And yet, in the world, 00:01:40.936 --> 00:01:44.720 there are so many people who still heat the water on fire, 00:01:44.744 --> 00:01:47.235 and they cook their food on fire. 00:01:47.259 --> 00:01:49.321 Sometimes they don't even have enough food. 00:01:49.971 --> 00:01:52.276 And they live below the poverty line. 00:01:52.300 --> 00:01:55.161 There are two billion fellow human beings 00:01:55.185 --> 00:01:57.892 who live on less than two dollars a day. 00:01:57.916 --> 00:02:01.051 And the richest people over there -- there's one billion people, 00:02:01.075 --> 00:02:04.413 and they live above what I call the "air line" -- NOTE Paragraph 00:02:04.437 --> 00:02:05.454 (Laughter) NOTE Paragraph 00:02:05.478 --> 00:02:08.923 because they spend more than 80 dollars a day 00:02:08.947 --> 00:02:10.840 on their consumption. NOTE Paragraph 00:02:10.864 --> 00:02:13.513 But this is just one, two, three billion people, 00:02:13.537 --> 00:02:16.328 and obviously, there are seven billion people in the world, 00:02:16.352 --> 00:02:19.825 so there must be one, two, three, four billion people more 00:02:19.849 --> 00:02:23.027 who live in between the poverty and the air line. 00:02:23.051 --> 00:02:24.796 They have electricity, 00:02:24.820 --> 00:02:27.570 but the question is: How many have washing machines? 00:02:28.610 --> 00:02:33.121 I've done the scrutiny of market data, and I've found that, indeed, 00:02:33.145 --> 00:02:36.717 the washing machine has penetrated below the air line, 00:02:36.741 --> 00:02:39.994 and today, there's an additional one billion people out there 00:02:40.018 --> 00:02:42.276 who live above the "wash line." NOTE Paragraph 00:02:42.300 --> 00:02:44.276 (Laughter) NOTE Paragraph 00:02:44.709 --> 00:02:48.345 And they consume for more than 40 dollars per day. 00:02:48.369 --> 00:02:51.107 So two billion have access to washing machines. NOTE Paragraph 00:02:51.131 --> 00:02:54.058 And the remaining five billion -- 00:02:54.082 --> 00:02:55.348 how do they wash? 00:02:55.372 --> 00:02:56.978 Or, to be more precise, 00:02:57.002 --> 00:03:00.349 how do most of the women in the world wash? 00:03:00.373 --> 00:03:03.584 Because it remains the hard work for women to wash. 00:03:04.329 --> 00:03:06.390 They wash like this: by hand. 00:03:07.438 --> 00:03:11.735 It's hard, time-consuming labor, 00:03:11.759 --> 00:03:14.936 which they have to do for hours every week. 00:03:14.960 --> 00:03:18.109 And sometimes they also have to bring water from far away 00:03:18.133 --> 00:03:19.562 to do the laundry at home, 00:03:19.586 --> 00:03:23.148 or they have to bring the laundry away to a stream far off. 00:03:23.172 --> 00:03:25.348 And they want the washing machine. 00:03:25.927 --> 00:03:29.580 They don't want to spend such a large part of their life 00:03:29.604 --> 00:03:30.967 doing this hard work 00:03:30.991 --> 00:03:33.449 with so relatively low productivity. 00:03:34.092 --> 00:03:36.304 And there's nothing different in their wish 00:03:36.328 --> 00:03:38.019 than it was for my grandma. 00:03:38.043 --> 00:03:40.388 Look here, two generations ago in Sweden -- 00:03:40.412 --> 00:03:42.276 picking water from the stream, 00:03:42.300 --> 00:03:45.145 heating with firewood and washing like that. 00:03:45.169 --> 00:03:48.151 They want the washing machine in exactly the same way. NOTE Paragraph 00:03:48.175 --> 00:03:51.495 But when I lecture to environmentally concerned students, 00:03:51.519 --> 00:03:55.622 they tell me, "No, everybody in the world cannot have cars and washing machines." 00:03:56.570 --> 00:03:57.899 How can we tell this woman 00:03:57.923 --> 00:04:00.489 that she isn't going to have a washing machine? 00:04:00.513 --> 00:04:03.925 And then I ask my students -- over the last two years, I've asked -- 00:04:03.949 --> 00:04:05.973 "How many of you don't use a car?" 00:04:05.997 --> 00:04:09.838 And some of them proudly raise their hand and say, "I don't use a car." 00:04:10.300 --> 00:04:12.631 And then I put the really tough question: 00:04:12.655 --> 00:04:16.568 "How many of you hand-wash your jeans and your bedsheets?" 00:04:16.592 --> 00:04:19.276 And no one raised their hand. 00:04:19.938 --> 00:04:24.276 Even the hardcore in the green movement use washing machines. NOTE Paragraph 00:04:24.300 --> 00:04:26.441 (Laughter) NOTE Paragraph 00:04:27.990 --> 00:04:30.447 So how come [this is] something that everyone uses 00:04:30.471 --> 00:04:32.358 and they think others will not stop it? 00:04:32.382 --> 00:04:33.631 What is special with this? 00:04:33.655 --> 00:04:36.519 I had to do an analysis about the energy use in the world. 00:04:36.543 --> 00:04:37.709 Here we are. 00:04:37.733 --> 00:04:40.249 Look here. You see the seven billion people up there? 00:04:40.273 --> 00:04:42.276 The air people, the wash people, 00:04:42.300 --> 00:04:45.088 the bulb people and the fire people. 00:04:45.112 --> 00:04:47.129 One unit like this 00:04:47.153 --> 00:04:52.276 is an energy unit of fossil fuel -- oil, coal or gas. 00:04:52.300 --> 00:04:55.887 That's what most of the electricity and the energy in the world is. 00:04:55.911 --> 00:04:59.030 And it's 12 units used in the entire world, 00:04:59.054 --> 00:05:01.861 and the richest one billion, they use six of them. 00:05:02.300 --> 00:05:05.653 Half of the energy is used by one seventh of the world population. 00:05:05.677 --> 00:05:07.816 And these ones, who have washing machines 00:05:07.840 --> 00:05:09.807 but not a house full of other machines, 00:05:09.831 --> 00:05:11.021 they use two. 00:05:11.647 --> 00:05:13.903 This group uses three, one each. 00:05:14.529 --> 00:05:16.101 And they also have electricity. 00:05:16.125 --> 00:05:18.276 And over there, they don't even use one each. 00:05:18.300 --> 00:05:19.621 That makes 12 of them. NOTE Paragraph 00:05:20.069 --> 00:05:21.740 But the main concern 00:05:21.764 --> 00:05:25.435 for the environmentally interested students -- and they are right -- 00:05:25.459 --> 00:05:26.909 is about the future. 00:05:27.894 --> 00:05:29.060 What are the trends? 00:05:29.084 --> 00:05:32.743 If we just prolong the trends, without any real advanced analysis, 00:05:32.767 --> 00:05:33.934 to 2050, 00:05:33.958 --> 00:05:37.086 there are two things that can increase the energy use: 00:05:37.110 --> 00:05:40.095 first, population growth; second, economic growth. 00:05:40.697 --> 00:05:44.163 Population growth will mainly occur among the poorest people here, 00:05:44.187 --> 00:05:46.025 because they have high child mortality 00:05:46.049 --> 00:05:47.876 and they have many children per woman. 00:05:47.900 --> 00:05:49.783 And that will get you two extra, 00:05:49.807 --> 00:05:52.039 but that won't change the energy use very much. NOTE Paragraph 00:05:52.063 --> 00:05:54.063 What will happen is economic growth. 00:05:54.087 --> 00:05:56.843 The best of here in the emerging economies -- 00:05:56.867 --> 00:05:58.566 I call them "the New East" -- 00:05:58.590 --> 00:06:00.276 they will jump the air line. 00:06:00.300 --> 00:06:01.939 "Wopp!" they will say. 00:06:01.963 --> 00:06:05.398 And they will start to use as much as the Old West are doing already. NOTE Paragraph 00:06:05.422 --> 00:06:06.498 (Laughter) NOTE Paragraph 00:06:06.522 --> 00:06:08.803 And these people, they want the washing machine. 00:06:08.827 --> 00:06:10.276 I told you. They'll go there. 00:06:10.300 --> 00:06:12.130 And they will double their energy use. 00:06:12.154 --> 00:06:15.278 And we hope that the poor people will get into the electric light. 00:06:15.302 --> 00:06:18.714 And they'll get a two-child family without a stop in population growth. 00:06:18.738 --> 00:06:21.957 But the total energy consumption will increase to 22 units. 00:06:21.981 --> 00:06:24.783 And these 22 units -- 00:06:24.807 --> 00:06:27.392 still, the richest people use most of them. 00:06:28.862 --> 00:06:30.237 So what needs to be done? 00:06:30.261 --> 00:06:32.238 Because the risk, 00:06:32.262 --> 00:06:35.005 the high probability of climate change is real. 00:06:35.417 --> 00:06:36.821 It's real. 00:06:36.845 --> 00:06:39.612 Of course, they must be more energy efficient. 00:06:40.516 --> 00:06:42.630 They must change their behavior in some way. 00:06:42.654 --> 00:06:45.090 They must also start to produce green energy, 00:06:45.114 --> 00:06:46.339 much more green energy. 00:06:46.363 --> 00:06:49.735 But until they have the same energy consumption per person, 00:06:49.759 --> 00:06:51.670 they shouldn't give advice to others -- 00:06:51.694 --> 00:06:53.190 what to do and what not to do. NOTE Paragraph 00:06:53.214 --> 00:06:54.338 (Laughter) NOTE Paragraph 00:06:54.362 --> 00:06:55.540 (Applause) NOTE Paragraph 00:06:55.564 --> 00:07:00.309 Here, we can get more green energy all over. NOTE Paragraph 00:07:00.333 --> 00:07:01.981 This is what we hope might happen. 00:07:02.005 --> 00:07:03.988 It's a real challenge in the future. 00:07:04.379 --> 00:07:08.035 But I can assure you that this woman in the favela in Rio, 00:07:08.059 --> 00:07:09.828 she wants a washing machine. 00:07:09.852 --> 00:07:12.214 She's very happy about her minister of energy 00:07:12.238 --> 00:07:14.214 that provided electricity to everyone -- 00:07:14.238 --> 00:07:17.815 so happy that she even voted for her. 00:07:17.839 --> 00:07:19.585 And she became Dilma Rousseff, 00:07:19.609 --> 00:07:23.789 the president-elect of one of the biggest democracies in the world, 00:07:23.813 --> 00:07:27.021 moving from minister of energy to president. 00:07:27.045 --> 00:07:30.926 If you have democracy, people will vote for washing machines. 00:07:30.950 --> 00:07:32.435 They love them! NOTE Paragraph 00:07:32.459 --> 00:07:33.725 (Laughter) NOTE Paragraph 00:07:34.236 --> 00:07:36.020 And what's the magic with them? 00:07:36.044 --> 00:07:39.276 My mother explained the magic with this machine 00:07:39.300 --> 00:07:41.777 the very, very first day. 00:07:41.801 --> 00:07:43.311 She said, "Now, Hans. 00:07:44.275 --> 00:07:45.760 We have loaded the laundry. 00:07:45.784 --> 00:07:47.501 The machine will make the work. 00:07:47.525 --> 00:07:49.666 And now we can go to the library." 00:07:50.159 --> 00:07:53.100 Because this is the magic: you load the laundry, 00:07:53.124 --> 00:07:55.406 and what do you get out of the machine? 00:07:55.430 --> 00:07:58.731 You get books out of the machines, 00:07:58.755 --> 00:07:59.907 children's books. 00:07:59.931 --> 00:08:02.276 And mother got time to read for me. 00:08:02.300 --> 00:08:03.465 She loved this. 00:08:03.489 --> 00:08:07.276 I got the "ABC's" -- this is why I started my career as a professor, 00:08:07.300 --> 00:08:09.440 when my mother had time to read for me. 00:08:09.464 --> 00:08:11.276 And she also got books for herself. 00:08:11.300 --> 00:08:15.055 She managed to study English and learn that as a foreign language. 00:08:15.079 --> 00:08:17.386 And she read so many novels, 00:08:17.410 --> 00:08:19.850 so many different novels here. 00:08:19.874 --> 00:08:23.540 And we really, we really loved this machine. NOTE Paragraph 00:08:23.564 --> 00:08:24.702 (Laughter) NOTE Paragraph 00:08:24.726 --> 00:08:27.276 And what we said, my mother and me, 00:08:27.300 --> 00:08:29.772 "Thank you, industrialization. 00:08:30.300 --> 00:08:32.234 Thank you, steel mill. 00:08:32.258 --> 00:08:34.052 Thank you, power station. 00:08:34.076 --> 00:08:37.100 And thank you, chemical processing industry 00:08:37.124 --> 00:08:39.132 that gave us time to read books." NOTE Paragraph 00:08:39.156 --> 00:08:40.373 Thank you very much. NOTE Paragraph 00:08:40.397 --> 00:08:41.479 (Laughter) NOTE Paragraph 00:08:41.503 --> 00:08:48.503 (Applause)