WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:03.000 So it's 1995, 00:00:03.000 --> 00:00:05.000 I'm in college, 00:00:05.000 --> 00:00:08.000 and a friend and I go on a road trip 00:00:08.000 --> 00:00:10.000 from Providence, Rhode Island 00:00:10.000 --> 00:00:12.000 to Portland, Oregon. 00:00:12.000 --> 00:00:15.000 And you know, we're young and unemployed, 00:00:15.000 --> 00:00:17.000 so we do the whole thing on back roads 00:00:17.000 --> 00:00:19.000 through state parks 00:00:19.000 --> 00:00:22.000 and national forests -- 00:00:22.000 --> 00:00:25.000 basically the longest route we can possibly take. 00:00:26.000 --> 00:00:29.000 And somewhere in the middle of South Dakota, 00:00:29.000 --> 00:00:32.000 I turn to my friend 00:00:32.000 --> 00:00:34.000 and I ask her a question 00:00:34.000 --> 00:00:36.000 that's been bothering me 00:00:36.000 --> 00:00:39.000 for 2,000 miles. 00:00:40.000 --> 00:00:44.000 "What's up with the Chinese character I keep seeing by the side of the road?" 00:00:47.000 --> 00:00:51.000 My friend looks at me totally blankly. 00:00:51.000 --> 00:00:53.000 There's actually a gentleman in the front row 00:00:53.000 --> 00:00:56.000 who's doing a perfect imitation of her look. 00:00:56.000 --> 00:00:59.000 (Laughter) 00:00:59.000 --> 00:01:01.000 And I'm like, "You know, 00:01:01.000 --> 00:01:03.000 all the signs we keep seeing 00:01:03.000 --> 00:01:06.000 with the Chinese character on them." 00:01:07.000 --> 00:01:10.000 She just stares at me for a few moments, 00:01:10.000 --> 00:01:13.000 and then she cracks up, 00:01:13.000 --> 00:01:15.000 because she figures out what I'm talking about. 00:01:15.000 --> 00:01:18.000 And what I'm talking about is this. 00:01:18.000 --> 00:01:24.000 (Laughter) 00:01:24.000 --> 00:01:28.000 Right, the famous Chinese character for picnic area. NOTE Paragraph 00:01:28.000 --> 00:01:30.000 (Laughter) NOTE Paragraph 00:01:30.000 --> 00:01:34.000 I've spent the last five years of my life 00:01:34.000 --> 00:01:36.000 thinking about situations 00:01:36.000 --> 00:01:39.000 exactly like this -- 00:01:39.000 --> 00:01:41.000 why we sometimes misunderstand 00:01:41.000 --> 00:01:43.000 the signs around us, 00:01:43.000 --> 00:01:46.000 and how we behave when that happens, 00:01:46.000 --> 00:01:50.000 and what all of this can tell us about human nature. 00:01:50.000 --> 00:01:52.000 In other words, as you heard Chris say, 00:01:52.000 --> 00:01:54.000 I've spent the last five years 00:01:54.000 --> 00:01:57.000 thinking about being wrong. 00:01:57.000 --> 00:02:00.000 This might strike you as a strange career move, 00:02:00.000 --> 00:02:03.000 but it actually has one great advantage: 00:02:03.000 --> 00:02:05.000 no job competition. 00:02:05.000 --> 00:02:07.000 (Laughter) 00:02:07.000 --> 00:02:10.000 In fact, most of us do everything we can 00:02:10.000 --> 00:02:13.000 to avoid thinking about being wrong, 00:02:13.000 --> 00:02:15.000 or at least to avoid thinking about the possibility 00:02:15.000 --> 00:02:17.000 that we ourselves are wrong. 00:02:17.000 --> 00:02:19.000 We get it in the abstract. 00:02:19.000 --> 00:02:21.000 We all know everybody in this room makes mistakes. 00:02:22.000 --> 00:02:25.000 The human species, in general, is fallible -- okay fine. NOTE Paragraph 00:02:26.000 --> 00:02:29.000 But when it comes down to me, right now, 00:02:29.000 --> 00:02:31.000 to all the beliefs I hold, 00:02:31.000 --> 00:02:34.000 here in the present tense, 00:02:34.000 --> 00:02:38.000 suddenly all of this abstract appreciation of fallibility 00:02:38.000 --> 00:02:41.000 goes out the window -- 00:02:41.000 --> 00:02:44.000 and I can't actually think of anything I'm wrong about. 00:02:45.000 --> 00:02:48.000 And the thing is, the present tense is where we live. 00:02:48.000 --> 00:02:51.000 We go to meetings in the present tense; 00:02:51.000 --> 00:02:53.000 we go on family vacations in the present tense; 00:02:53.000 --> 00:02:57.000 we go to the polls and vote in the present tense. 00:02:57.000 --> 00:03:00.000 So effectively, we all kind of wind up traveling through life, 00:03:00.000 --> 00:03:02.000 trapped in this little bubble 00:03:02.000 --> 00:03:05.000 of feeling very right about everything. NOTE Paragraph 00:03:06.000 --> 00:03:08.000 I think this is a problem. 00:03:08.000 --> 00:03:11.000 I think it's a problem for each of us as individuals, 00:03:11.000 --> 00:03:14.000 in our personal and professional lives, 00:03:14.000 --> 00:03:17.000 and I think it's a problem for all of us collectively as a culture. 00:03:17.000 --> 00:03:19.000 So what I want to do today 00:03:19.000 --> 00:03:22.000 is, first of all, talk about why we get stuck 00:03:22.000 --> 00:03:24.000 inside this feeling of being right. 00:03:24.000 --> 00:03:27.000 And second, why it's such a problem. 00:03:27.000 --> 00:03:29.000 And finally, I want to convince you 00:03:29.000 --> 00:03:31.000 that it is possible 00:03:31.000 --> 00:03:33.000 to step outside of that feeling 00:03:33.000 --> 00:03:35.000 and that if you can do so, 00:03:35.000 --> 00:03:37.000 it is the single greatest 00:03:37.000 --> 00:03:40.000 moral, intellectual and creative leap you can make. NOTE Paragraph 00:03:42.000 --> 00:03:44.000 So why do we get stuck 00:03:44.000 --> 00:03:46.000 in this feeling of being right? 00:03:46.000 --> 00:03:49.000 One reason, actually, has to do with a feeling of being wrong. 00:03:49.000 --> 00:03:51.000 So let me ask you guys something -- 00:03:51.000 --> 00:03:55.000 or actually, let me ask you guys something, because you're right here: 00:03:55.000 --> 00:03:58.000 How does it feel -- emotionally -- 00:03:58.000 --> 00:04:01.000 how does it feel to be wrong? 00:04:01.000 --> 00:04:04.000 Dreadful. Thumbs down. 00:04:04.000 --> 00:04:06.000 Embarrassing. Okay, wonderful, great. 00:04:06.000 --> 00:04:08.000 Dreadful, thumbs down, embarrassing -- 00:04:08.000 --> 00:04:11.000 thank you, these are great answers, 00:04:11.000 --> 00:04:14.000 but they're answers to a different question. 00:04:14.000 --> 00:04:16.000 You guys are answering the question: 00:04:16.000 --> 00:04:19.000 How does it feel to realize you're wrong? 00:04:19.000 --> 00:04:23.000 (Laughter) 00:04:23.000 --> 00:04:26.000 Realizing you're wrong can feel like all of that and a lot of other things, right? 00:04:26.000 --> 00:04:29.000 I mean it can be devastating, it can be revelatory, 00:04:29.000 --> 00:04:31.000 it can actually be quite funny, 00:04:31.000 --> 00:04:34.000 like my stupid Chinese character mistake. 00:04:34.000 --> 00:04:37.000 But just being wrong 00:04:37.000 --> 00:04:39.000 doesn't feel like anything. NOTE Paragraph 00:04:39.000 --> 00:04:42.000 I'll give you an analogy. 00:04:42.000 --> 00:04:44.000 Do you remember that Loony Tunes cartoon 00:04:44.000 --> 00:04:46.000 where there's this pathetic coyote 00:04:46.000 --> 00:04:48.000 who's always chasing and never catching a roadrunner? 00:04:48.000 --> 00:04:51.000 In pretty much every episode of this cartoon, 00:04:51.000 --> 00:04:53.000 there's a moment where the coyote is chasing the roadrunner 00:04:53.000 --> 00:04:55.000 and the roadrunner runs off a cliff, 00:04:55.000 --> 00:04:58.000 which is fine -- he's a bird, he can fly. 00:04:58.000 --> 00:05:02.000 But the thing is, the coyote runs off the cliff right after him. 00:05:02.000 --> 00:05:04.000 And what's funny -- 00:05:04.000 --> 00:05:06.000 at least if you're six years old -- 00:05:06.000 --> 00:05:08.000 is that the coyote's totally fine too. 00:05:08.000 --> 00:05:10.000 He just keeps running -- 00:05:10.000 --> 00:05:12.000 right up until the moment that he looks down 00:05:12.000 --> 00:05:15.000 and realizes that he's in mid-air. 00:05:15.000 --> 00:05:18.000 That's when he falls. 00:05:19.000 --> 00:05:21.000 When we're wrong about something -- 00:05:21.000 --> 00:05:24.000 not when we realize it, but before that -- 00:05:24.000 --> 00:05:27.000 we're like that coyote 00:05:27.000 --> 00:05:30.000 after he's gone off the cliff and before he looks down. 00:05:31.000 --> 00:05:34.000 You know, we're already wrong, 00:05:34.000 --> 00:05:36.000 we're already in trouble, 00:05:36.000 --> 00:05:39.000 but we feel like we're on solid ground. 00:05:40.000 --> 00:05:43.000 So I should actually correct something I said a moment ago. 00:05:43.000 --> 00:05:46.000 It does feel like something to be wrong; 00:05:46.000 --> 00:05:49.000 it feels like being right. NOTE Paragraph 00:05:49.000 --> 00:05:52.000 (Laughter) NOTE Paragraph 00:05:52.000 --> 00:05:55.000 So this is one reason, a structural reason, 00:05:55.000 --> 00:05:57.000 why we get stuck inside this feeling of rightness. 00:05:57.000 --> 00:05:59.000 I call this error blindness. 00:05:59.000 --> 00:06:01.000 Most of the time, 00:06:01.000 --> 00:06:04.000 we don't have any kind of internal cue 00:06:04.000 --> 00:06:06.000 to let us know that we're wrong about something, 00:06:06.000 --> 00:06:09.000 until it's too late. 00:06:09.000 --> 00:06:12.000 But there's a second reason that we get stuck inside this feeling as well -- 00:06:12.000 --> 00:06:14.000 and this one is cultural. 00:06:15.000 --> 00:06:18.000 Think back for a moment to elementary school. 00:06:18.000 --> 00:06:20.000 You're sitting there in class, 00:06:20.000 --> 00:06:23.000 and your teacher is handing back quiz papers, 00:06:23.000 --> 00:06:25.000 and one of them looks like this. 00:06:25.000 --> 00:06:27.000 This is not mine, by the way. 00:06:27.000 --> 00:06:29.000 (Laughter) 00:06:29.000 --> 00:06:32.000 So there you are in grade school, 00:06:32.000 --> 00:06:34.000 and you know exactly what to think 00:06:34.000 --> 00:06:37.000 about the kid who got this paper. 00:06:37.000 --> 00:06:40.000 It's the dumb kid, the troublemaker, 00:06:40.000 --> 00:06:43.000 the one who never does his homework. 00:06:43.000 --> 00:06:46.000 So by the time you are nine years old, 00:06:46.000 --> 00:06:48.000 you've already learned, first of all, 00:06:48.000 --> 00:06:50.000 that people who get stuff wrong 00:06:50.000 --> 00:06:53.000 are lazy, irresponsible dimwits -- 00:06:53.000 --> 00:06:55.000 and second of all, 00:06:55.000 --> 00:06:57.000 that the way to succeed in life 00:06:57.000 --> 00:07:00.000 is to never make any mistakes. NOTE Paragraph 00:07:01.000 --> 00:07:05.000 We learn these really bad lessons really well. 00:07:06.000 --> 00:07:08.000 And a lot of us -- 00:07:08.000 --> 00:07:12.000 and I suspect, especially a lot of us in this room -- 00:07:12.000 --> 00:07:14.000 deal with them by just becoming 00:07:14.000 --> 00:07:16.000 perfect little A students, 00:07:16.000 --> 00:07:19.000 perfectionists, over-achievers. 00:07:19.000 --> 00:07:21.000 Right, 00:07:21.000 --> 00:07:25.000 Mr. CFO, astrophysicist, ultra-marathoner? 00:07:25.000 --> 00:07:32.000 (Laughter) 00:07:32.000 --> 00:07:36.000 You're all CFO, astrophysicists, ultra-marathoners, it turns out. 00:07:36.000 --> 00:07:38.000 Okay, so fine. 00:07:38.000 --> 00:07:41.000 Except that then we freak out 00:07:41.000 --> 00:07:43.000 at the possibility that we've gotten something wrong. 00:07:43.000 --> 00:07:46.000 Because according to this, 00:07:46.000 --> 00:07:48.000 getting something wrong 00:07:48.000 --> 00:07:51.000 means there's something wrong with us. 00:07:51.000 --> 00:07:53.000 So we just insist that we're right, 00:07:53.000 --> 00:07:55.000 because it makes us feel smart and responsible 00:07:55.000 --> 00:07:58.000 and virtuous and safe. NOTE Paragraph 00:07:59.000 --> 00:08:01.000 So let me tell you a story. 00:08:01.000 --> 00:08:03.000 A couple of years ago, 00:08:03.000 --> 00:08:06.000 a woman comes into Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center for a surgery. 00:08:06.000 --> 00:08:08.000 Beth Israel's in Boston. 00:08:08.000 --> 00:08:10.000 It's the teaching hospital for Harvard -- 00:08:10.000 --> 00:08:12.000 one of the best hospitals in the country. 00:08:12.000 --> 00:08:15.000 So this woman comes in and she's taken into the operating room. 00:08:15.000 --> 00:08:17.000 She's anesthetized, the surgeon does his thing -- 00:08:17.000 --> 00:08:20.000 stitches her back up, sends her out to the recovery room. 00:08:20.000 --> 00:08:23.000 Everything seems to have gone fine. 00:08:23.000 --> 00:08:26.000 And she wakes up, and she looks down at herself, 00:08:26.000 --> 00:08:30.000 and she says, "Why is the wrong side of my body in bandages?" 00:08:30.000 --> 00:08:33.000 Well the wrong side of her body is in bandages 00:08:33.000 --> 00:08:35.000 because the surgeon has performed a major operation 00:08:35.000 --> 00:08:38.000 on her left leg instead of her right one. 00:08:39.000 --> 00:08:42.000 When the vice president for health care quality at Beth Israel 00:08:42.000 --> 00:08:45.000 spoke about this incident, 00:08:45.000 --> 00:08:48.000 he said something very interesting. 00:08:48.000 --> 00:08:51.000 He said, "For whatever reason, 00:08:51.000 --> 00:08:53.000 the surgeon simply felt 00:08:53.000 --> 00:08:55.000 that he was on the correct side of the patient." 00:08:55.000 --> 00:08:58.000 (Laughter) 00:09:00.000 --> 00:09:02.000 The point of this story 00:09:02.000 --> 00:09:05.000 is that trusting too much in the feeling 00:09:05.000 --> 00:09:08.000 of being on the correct side of anything 00:09:08.000 --> 00:09:11.000 can be very dangerous. NOTE Paragraph 00:09:11.000 --> 00:09:14.000 This internal sense of rightness 00:09:14.000 --> 00:09:16.000 that we all experience so often 00:09:16.000 --> 00:09:18.000 is not a reliable guide 00:09:18.000 --> 00:09:21.000 to what is actually going on in the external world. 00:09:21.000 --> 00:09:23.000 And when we act like it is, 00:09:23.000 --> 00:09:27.000 and we stop entertaining the possibility that we could be wrong, 00:09:27.000 --> 00:09:29.000 well that's when we end up doing things 00:09:29.000 --> 00:09:33.000 like dumping 200 million gallons of oil into the Gulf of Mexico, 00:09:33.000 --> 00:09:36.000 or torpedoing the global economy. 00:09:37.000 --> 00:09:40.000 So this is a huge practical problem. 00:09:40.000 --> 00:09:43.000 But it's also a huge social problem. NOTE Paragraph 00:09:43.000 --> 00:09:47.000 Think for a moment about what it means to feel right. 00:09:47.000 --> 00:09:49.000 It means that you think that your beliefs 00:09:49.000 --> 00:09:52.000 just perfectly reflect reality. 00:09:52.000 --> 00:09:54.000 And when you feel that way, 00:09:54.000 --> 00:09:56.000 you've got a problem to solve, 00:09:56.000 --> 00:09:58.000 which is, how are you going to explain 00:09:58.000 --> 00:10:01.000 all of those people who disagree with you? 00:10:01.000 --> 00:10:04.000 It turns out, most of us explain those people the same way, 00:10:04.000 --> 00:10:07.000 by resorting to a series of unfortunate assumptions. 00:10:08.000 --> 00:10:11.000 The first thing we usually do when someone disagrees with us 00:10:11.000 --> 00:10:14.000 is we just assume they're ignorant. 00:10:14.000 --> 00:10:16.000 They don't have access to the same information that we do, 00:10:16.000 --> 00:10:19.000 and when we generously share that information with them, 00:10:19.000 --> 00:10:22.000 they're going to see the light and come on over to our team. 00:10:22.000 --> 00:10:25.000 When that doesn't work, 00:10:25.000 --> 00:10:27.000 when it turns out those people have all the same facts that we do 00:10:27.000 --> 00:10:29.000 and they still disagree with us, 00:10:29.000 --> 00:10:31.000 then we move on to a second assumption, 00:10:31.000 --> 00:10:33.000 which is that they're idiots. 00:10:33.000 --> 00:10:35.000 (Laughter) 00:10:35.000 --> 00:10:37.000 They have all the right pieces of the puzzle, 00:10:37.000 --> 00:10:40.000 and they are too moronic to put them together correctly. 00:10:40.000 --> 00:10:42.000 And when that doesn't work, 00:10:42.000 --> 00:10:45.000 when it turns out that people who disagree with us 00:10:45.000 --> 00:10:47.000 have all the same facts we do 00:10:47.000 --> 00:10:50.000 and are actually pretty smart, 00:10:50.000 --> 00:10:53.000 then we move on to a third assumption: 00:10:53.000 --> 00:10:56.000 they know the truth, 00:10:56.000 --> 00:10:58.000 and they are deliberately distorting it 00:10:58.000 --> 00:11:01.000 for their own malevolent purposes. 00:11:02.000 --> 00:11:04.000 So this is a catastrophe. NOTE Paragraph 00:11:04.000 --> 00:11:07.000 This attachment to our own rightness 00:11:07.000 --> 00:11:09.000 keeps us from preventing mistakes 00:11:09.000 --> 00:11:11.000 when we absolutely need to 00:11:11.000 --> 00:11:14.000 and causes us to treat each other terribly. 00:11:15.000 --> 00:11:17.000 But to me, what's most baffling 00:11:17.000 --> 00:11:20.000 and most tragic about this 00:11:20.000 --> 00:11:24.000 is that it misses the whole point of being human. 00:11:24.000 --> 00:11:26.000 It's like we want to imagine 00:11:26.000 --> 00:11:29.000 that our minds are just these perfectly translucent windows 00:11:29.000 --> 00:11:31.000 and we just gaze out of them 00:11:31.000 --> 00:11:34.000 and describe the world as it unfolds. 00:11:34.000 --> 00:11:36.000 And we want everybody else to gaze out of the same window 00:11:36.000 --> 00:11:38.000 and see the exact same thing. 00:11:38.000 --> 00:11:40.000 That is not true, 00:11:40.000 --> 00:11:43.000 and if it were, life would be incredibly boring. 00:11:43.000 --> 00:11:46.000 The miracle of your mind 00:11:46.000 --> 00:11:49.000 isn't that you can see the world as it is. 00:11:50.000 --> 00:11:53.000 It's that you can see the world as it isn't. 00:11:54.000 --> 00:11:56.000 We can remember the past, 00:11:56.000 --> 00:11:59.000 and we can think about the future, 00:11:59.000 --> 00:12:01.000 and we can imagine what it's like 00:12:01.000 --> 00:12:04.000 to be some other person in some other place. 00:12:04.000 --> 00:12:06.000 And we all do this a little differently, 00:12:06.000 --> 00:12:08.000 which is why we can all look up at the same night sky 00:12:08.000 --> 00:12:10.000 and see this 00:12:10.000 --> 00:12:12.000 and also this 00:12:12.000 --> 00:12:15.000 and also this. 00:12:15.000 --> 00:12:18.000 And yeah, it is also why we get things wrong. NOTE Paragraph 00:12:19.000 --> 00:12:21.000 1,200 years before Descartes said his famous thing 00:12:21.000 --> 00:12:23.000 about "I think therefore I am," 00:12:23.000 --> 00:12:25.000 this guy, St. Augustine, sat down 00:12:25.000 --> 00:12:28.000 and wrote "Fallor ergo sum" -- 00:12:28.000 --> 00:12:32.000 "I err therefore I am." 00:12:32.000 --> 00:12:34.000 Augustine understood 00:12:34.000 --> 00:12:36.000 that our capacity to screw up, 00:12:36.000 --> 00:12:38.000 it's not some kind of embarrassing defect 00:12:38.000 --> 00:12:40.000 in the human system, 00:12:40.000 --> 00:12:43.000 something we can eradicate or overcome. 00:12:43.000 --> 00:12:46.000 It's totally fundamental to who we are. 00:12:46.000 --> 00:12:48.000 Because, unlike God, 00:12:48.000 --> 00:12:51.000 we don't really know what's going on out there. 00:12:51.000 --> 00:12:54.000 And unlike all of the other animals, 00:12:54.000 --> 00:12:58.000 we are obsessed with trying to figure it out. 00:12:58.000 --> 00:13:00.000 To me, this obsession 00:13:00.000 --> 00:13:02.000 is the source and root 00:13:02.000 --> 00:13:05.000 of all of our productivity and creativity. NOTE Paragraph 00:13:05.000 --> 00:13:08.000 Last year, for various reasons, 00:13:08.000 --> 00:13:10.000 I found myself listening to a lot of episodes 00:13:10.000 --> 00:13:12.000 of the Public Radio show This American Life. 00:13:12.000 --> 00:13:15.000 And so I'm listening and I'm listening, 00:13:15.000 --> 00:13:18.000 and at some point, I start feeling 00:13:18.000 --> 00:13:21.000 like all the stories are about being wrong. 00:13:22.000 --> 00:13:24.000 And my first thought was, 00:13:24.000 --> 00:13:26.000 "I've lost it. 00:13:26.000 --> 00:13:28.000 I've become the crazy wrongness lady. 00:13:28.000 --> 00:13:30.000 I just imagined it everywhere," 00:13:30.000 --> 00:13:32.000 which has happened. 00:13:32.000 --> 00:13:34.000 But a couple of months later, 00:13:34.000 --> 00:13:36.000 I actually had a chance to interview Ira Glass, who's the host of the show. 00:13:36.000 --> 00:13:38.000 And I mentioned this to him, 00:13:38.000 --> 00:13:41.000 and he was like, "No actually, that's true. 00:13:41.000 --> 00:13:43.000 In fact," he says, 00:13:43.000 --> 00:13:45.000 "as a staff, we joke 00:13:45.000 --> 00:13:47.000 that every single episode of our show 00:13:47.000 --> 00:13:50.000 has the same crypto-theme. 00:13:50.000 --> 00:13:52.000 And the crypto-theme is: 00:13:52.000 --> 00:13:55.000 'I thought this one thing was going to happen 00:13:55.000 --> 00:13:58.000 and something else happened instead.' 00:13:58.000 --> 00:14:01.000 And the thing is," says Ira Glass, "we need this. 00:14:01.000 --> 00:14:03.000 We need these moments 00:14:03.000 --> 00:14:05.000 of surprise and reversal and wrongness 00:14:05.000 --> 00:14:07.000 to make these stories work." 00:14:07.000 --> 00:14:09.000 And for the rest of us, audience members, 00:14:09.000 --> 00:14:12.000 as listeners, as readers, 00:14:12.000 --> 00:14:14.000 we eat this stuff up. 00:14:14.000 --> 00:14:17.000 We love things like plot twists 00:14:17.000 --> 00:14:20.000 and red herrings and surprise endings. 00:14:20.000 --> 00:14:23.000 When it comes to our stories, 00:14:23.000 --> 00:14:26.000 we love being wrong. NOTE Paragraph 00:14:26.000 --> 00:14:28.000 But, you know, our stories are like this 00:14:28.000 --> 00:14:31.000 because our lives are like this. 00:14:31.000 --> 00:14:34.000 We think this one thing is going to happen 00:14:34.000 --> 00:14:37.000 and something else happens instead. 00:14:37.000 --> 00:14:39.000 George Bush thought he was going to invade Iraq, 00:14:39.000 --> 00:14:41.000 find a bunch of weapons of mass destruction, 00:14:41.000 --> 00:14:44.000 liberate the people and bring democracy to the Middle East. 00:14:45.000 --> 00:14:47.000 And something else happened instead. 00:14:48.000 --> 00:14:50.000 And Hosni Mubarak 00:14:50.000 --> 00:14:52.000 thought he was going to be the dictator of Egypt for the rest of his life, 00:14:52.000 --> 00:14:54.000 until he got too old or too sick 00:14:54.000 --> 00:14:57.000 and could pass the reigns of power onto his son. 00:14:57.000 --> 00:15:00.000 And something else happened instead. 00:15:01.000 --> 00:15:03.000 And maybe you thought 00:15:03.000 --> 00:15:05.000 you were going to grow up and marry your high school sweetheart 00:15:05.000 --> 00:15:08.000 and move back to your hometown and raise a bunch of kids together. 00:15:09.000 --> 00:15:12.000 And something else happened instead. 00:15:12.000 --> 00:15:14.000 And I have to tell you 00:15:14.000 --> 00:15:16.000 that I thought I was writing an incredibly nerdy book 00:15:16.000 --> 00:15:18.000 about a subject everybody hates 00:15:18.000 --> 00:15:21.000 for an audience that would never materialize. 00:15:21.000 --> 00:15:23.000 And something else happened instead. NOTE Paragraph 00:15:23.000 --> 00:15:25.000 (Laughter) NOTE Paragraph 00:15:25.000 --> 00:15:27.000 I mean, this is life. 00:15:27.000 --> 00:15:29.000 For good and for ill, 00:15:29.000 --> 00:15:32.000 we generate these incredible stories 00:15:32.000 --> 00:15:34.000 about the world around us, 00:15:34.000 --> 00:15:37.000 and then the world turns around and astonishes us. 00:15:40.000 --> 00:15:43.000 No offense, but this entire conference 00:15:43.000 --> 00:15:45.000 is an unbelievable monument 00:15:45.000 --> 00:15:47.000 to our capacity to get stuff wrong. 00:15:47.000 --> 00:15:49.000 We just spent an entire week 00:15:49.000 --> 00:15:51.000 talking about innovations and advancements 00:15:51.000 --> 00:15:53.000 and improvements, 00:15:53.000 --> 00:15:56.000 but you know why we need all of those innovations 00:15:56.000 --> 00:15:58.000 and advancements and improvements? 00:15:58.000 --> 00:16:00.000 Because half the stuff 00:16:00.000 --> 00:16:03.000 that's the most mind-boggling and world-altering -- 00:16:03.000 --> 00:16:05.000 TED 1998 -- 00:16:05.000 --> 00:16:07.000 eh. 00:16:07.000 --> 00:16:11.000 (Laughter) 00:16:11.000 --> 00:16:13.000 Didn't really work out that way, did it? 00:16:13.000 --> 00:16:15.000 (Laughter) 00:16:15.000 --> 00:16:18.000 Where's my jet pack, Chris? NOTE Paragraph 00:16:18.000 --> 00:16:22.000 (Laughter) NOTE Paragraph 00:16:22.000 --> 00:16:27.000 (Applause) NOTE Paragraph 00:16:27.000 --> 00:16:30.000 So here we are again. 00:16:30.000 --> 00:16:32.000 And that's how it goes. 00:16:32.000 --> 00:16:34.000 We come up with another idea. 00:16:34.000 --> 00:16:37.000 We tell another story. 00:16:37.000 --> 00:16:40.000 We hold another conference. 00:16:40.000 --> 00:16:42.000 The theme of this one, 00:16:42.000 --> 00:16:44.000 as you guys have now heard seven million times, 00:16:44.000 --> 00:16:46.000 is the rediscovery of wonder. 00:16:46.000 --> 00:16:48.000 And to me, 00:16:48.000 --> 00:16:51.000 if you really want to rediscover wonder, 00:16:51.000 --> 00:16:53.000 you need to step outside 00:16:53.000 --> 00:16:59.000 of that tiny, terrified space of rightness 00:16:59.000 --> 00:17:02.000 and look around at each other 00:17:02.000 --> 00:17:05.000 and look out at the vastness 00:17:05.000 --> 00:17:08.000 and complexity and mystery 00:17:08.000 --> 00:17:11.000 of the universe 00:17:11.000 --> 00:17:14.000 and be able to say, 00:17:14.000 --> 00:17:18.000 "Wow, I don't know. 00:17:18.000 --> 00:17:20.000 Maybe I'm wrong." NOTE Paragraph 00:17:20.000 --> 00:17:22.000 Thank you. NOTE Paragraph 00:17:22.000 --> 00:17:25.000 (Applause) NOTE Paragraph 00:17:25.000 --> 00:17:27.000 Thank you guys. NOTE Paragraph 00:17:27.000 --> 00:17:30.000 (Applause)