[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:00.00,0:00:06.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,i'm going to give you a an overview of
Dialogue: 0,0:00:02.82,0:00:10.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what it is that that we do as a as a
Dialogue: 0,0:00:06.93,0:00:13.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,group and what we do collectively as
Dialogue: 0,0:00:10.62,0:00:16.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,scientists to try and understand what
Dialogue: 0,0:00:13.83,0:00:19.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we're dealing with with with climate and
Dialogue: 0,0:00:16.83,0:00:25.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the climate system and climate change
Dialogue: 0,0:00:19.11,0:00:28.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the world is extremely complex and
Dialogue: 0,0:00:25.56,0:00:32.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,dynamic the patterns that you can see
Dialogue: 0,0:00:28.53,0:00:34.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,here in these clouds which is not real
Dialogue: 0,0:00:32.34,0:00:37.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where this is a computer simulations is
Dialogue: 0,0:00:34.14,0:00:41.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not this is this isn't a this is in a on
Dialogue: 0,0:00:37.35,0:00:43.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a laptop not on a non a satellite but
Dialogue: 0,0:00:41.52,0:00:44.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the patterns that you can see a very
Dialogue: 0,0:00:43.26,0:00:48.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,similar to the ones that you see in the
Dialogue: 0,0:00:44.64,0:00:52.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,satellite you can see storms you can see
Dialogue: 0,0:00:48.60,0:00:54.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,convection you can see waves going
Dialogue: 0,0:00:52.47,0:00:56.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,through you can see things repeating but
Dialogue: 0,0:00:54.45,0:00:58.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not quite right
Dialogue: 0,0:00:56.43,0:00:59.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's the essence of the system that
Dialogue: 0,0:00:58.32,0:01:02.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,were talking about it's a it's a
Dialogue: 0,0:00:59.61,0:01:05.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,complicated chaotic dynamic system it
Dialogue: 0,0:01:02.34,0:01:06.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,never quite repeats and yet all of the
Dialogue: 0,0:01:05.40,0:01:08.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,processes that are going on the
Dialogue: 0,0:01:06.54,0:01:10.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,underlying all of the things that are
Dialogue: 0,0:01:08.49,0:01:13.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,going on with these clouds there
Dialogue: 0,0:01:10.89,0:01:15.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,understandable there are computable we
Dialogue: 0,0:01:13.77,0:01:17.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,can go and measure all of those
Dialogue: 0,0:01:15.12,0:01:23.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,different individual things how do we
Dialogue: 0,0:01:17.61,0:01:26.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,deal with that the challenge is is one
Dialogue: 0,0:01:23.10,0:01:29.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of scale the scales of the climate
Dialogue: 0,0:01:26.34,0:01:32.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,system range from micrometers for small
Dialogue: 0,0:01:29.85,0:01:36.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,aerosol particles that are from the
Dialogue: 0,0:01:32.58,0:01:38.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,nuclei of clouds in the atmosphere all
Dialogue: 0,0:01:36.45,0:01:40.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the way out to the size of the planet
Dialogue: 0,0:01:38.64,0:01:42.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,itself which is about 10 to the 8th
Dialogue: 0,0:01:40.95,0:01:45.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,meters that's about 14 orders of
Dialogue: 0,0:01:42.78,0:01:48.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,magnitude that's an enormous scale range
Dialogue: 0,0:01:45.87,0:01:52.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in which to encapsulate all the things
Dialogue: 0,0:01:48.33,0:01:54.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that are going on and even in time you
Dialogue: 0,0:01:52.53,0:01:56.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,know you're going from things that are
Dialogue: 0,0:01:54.21,0:01:57.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,happening on micro second scales to
Dialogue: 0,0:01:56.49,0:02:01.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,things that are happening over millennia
Dialogue: 0,0:01:57.78,0:02:04.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,again 14 orders of magnitude an enormous
Dialogue: 0,0:02:01.14,0:02:06.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,range of scales to comprehend them play
Dialogue: 0,0:02:04.17,0:02:09.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,everything together that's enormous
Dialogue: 0,0:02:06.90,0:02:12.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,challenge what you have when you build a
Dialogue: 0,0:02:09.69,0:02:13.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,model then is-is-is you have some
Dialogue: 0,0:02:12.36,0:02:17.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,fundamental concerns we don't have
Dialogue: 0,0:02:13.80,0:02:21.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,infinite computer power right so how
Dialogue: 0,0:02:17.94,0:02:23.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,does that work well with weather models
Dialogue: 0,0:02:21.15,0:02:24.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,right the ones that produce the forecast
Dialogue: 0,0:02:23.10,0:02:26.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that you see every day
Dialogue: 0,0:02:24.72,0:02:28.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the kind that the kind of result physics
Dialogue: 0,0:02:26.82,0:02:30.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the things that we can expressly
Dialogue: 0,0:02:28.29,0:02:33.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,included in these models go from the
Dialogue: 0,0:02:30.72,0:02:35.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,global scale down to about the
Dialogue: 0,0:02:33.90,0:02:38.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,50-kilometer scale right that's only a
Dialogue: 0,0:02:35.40,0:02:41.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,very small part of that huge range of
Dialogue: 0,0:02:38.82,0:02:43.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,scales that that actually impact of
Dialogue: 0,0:02:41.19,0:02:45.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,climate and the weather right the stuff
Dialogue: 0,0:02:43.53,0:02:46.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we can resolve the stuff that we
Dialogue: 0,0:02:45.00,0:02:49.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,can say okay we totally understand that
Dialogue: 0,0:02:46.86,0:02:51.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we can put in the exact equations is
Dialogue: 0,0:02:49.14,0:02:54.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,just that small part all the rest of it
Dialogue: 0,0:02:51.57,0:02:57.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is what we call these subscale processes
Dialogue: 0,0:02:54.42,0:03:00.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,now that stuff is is how a cloud
Dialogue: 0,0:02:57.81,0:03:02.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,actually forms how rainfall actually
Dialogue: 0,0:03:00.15,0:03:05.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,comes from a cloud system how
Dialogue: 0,0:03:02.25,0:03:07.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,evaporation works at other very very
Dialogue: 0,0:03:05.40,0:03:10.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,small scale and all of those things need
Dialogue: 0,0:03:07.95,0:03:14.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to be approximated in some way we need
Dialogue: 0,0:03:10.32,0:03:17.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to have some empirical phenomenological
Dialogue: 0,0:03:14.22,0:03:20.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,approximation to that physics to allow
Dialogue: 0,0:03:17.88,0:03:23.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the rest of it to work and that's a real
Dialogue: 0,0:03:20.58,0:03:25.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,challenge right there's this is this is
Dialogue: 0,0:03:23.40,0:03:27.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,turbulence this is a small-scale
Dialogue: 0,0:03:25.29,0:03:30.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,heterogeneity this is small mountains
Dialogue: 0,0:03:27.96,0:03:32.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and small hills and small lakes all of
Dialogue: 0,0:03:30.33,0:03:34.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,those things have to be squeezed into
Dialogue: 0,0:03:32.10,0:03:37.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,our approximation of those subscale
Dialogue: 0,0:03:34.38,0:03:40.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,processes so there's no guarantee that
Dialogue: 0,0:03:37.44,0:03:42.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this works right there's no guarantee
Dialogue: 0,0:03:40.20,0:03:47.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that this is even a program that will
Dialogue: 0,0:03:42.75,0:03:50.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,lead to successful predictions and so
Dialogue: 0,0:03:47.88,0:03:52.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the test all of this program is whether
Dialogue: 0,0:03:50.46,0:03:53.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it does actually produce successful
Dialogue: 0,0:03:52.83,0:03:56.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,predictions
Dialogue: 0,0:03:53.79,0:03:58.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,now you might not like the weather
Dialogue: 0,0:03:56.31,0:03:59.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,forecast that you get you might think
Dialogue: 0,0:03:58.29,0:04:01.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that they're terrible but actually
Dialogue: 0,0:03:59.58,0:04:03.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they're much much better than they used
Dialogue: 0,0:04:01.38,0:04:07.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to be where the models are skillful of
Dialogue: 0,0:04:03.93,0:04:10.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,producing forecasts three four five six
Dialogue: 0,0:04:07.14,0:04:13.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,days almost 10 days out in ways that
Dialogue: 0,0:04:10.41,0:04:16.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,were unforeseen able even 20 years ago
Dialogue: 0,0:04:13.50,0:04:19.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,now climate models are slightly
Dialogue: 0,0:04:16.17,0:04:22.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,different beast climate models have to
Dialogue: 0,0:04:19.86,0:04:24.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,use longer timescales because time is a
Dialogue: 0,0:04:22.92,0:04:26.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,longer time scale and so that compromise
Dialogue: 0,0:04:24.99,0:04:27.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they make is they don't go to quite such
Dialogue: 0,0:04:26.73,0:04:29.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,fine detail
Dialogue: 0,0:04:27.52,0:04:31.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and so back in the nineteen nineties
Dialogue: 0,0:04:29.20,0:04:33.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,climate models really only occupied that
Dialogue: 0,0:04:31.75,0:04:38.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,very small part of that of that space
Dialogue: 0,0:04:33.85,0:04:40.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,now we can go a little bit further so in
Dialogue: 0,0:04:38.20,0:04:42.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the 20,000 tens that so the models that
Dialogue: 0,0:04:40.66,0:04:45.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,were working with now you know we're
Dialogue: 0,0:04:42.40,0:04:47.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,coming out about the same spatial
Dialogue: 0,0:04:45.19,0:04:49.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,resolution as the weather models and
Dialogue: 0,0:04:47.77,0:04:52.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we're taking up more times you know
Dialogue: 0,0:04:49.87,0:04:53.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we're going out for a thousand years and
Dialogue: 0,0:04:52.21,0:04:56.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,working on the physics at the same
Dialogue: 0,0:04:53.62,0:04:58.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,potential and yet we still have this
Dialogue: 0,0:04:56.29,0:05:00.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,large large range of subjects scale
Dialogue: 0,0:04:58.66,0:05:07.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,processes that we still have to include
Dialogue: 0,0:05:00.55,0:05:09.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this is a climate model I this is an old
Dialogue: 0,0:05:07.84,0:05:11.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,tram or you'll be pleased to know we
Dialogue: 0,0:05:09.37,0:05:14.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,don't use punch cards anymore it's a
Dialogue: 0,0:05:11.95,0:05:16.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,single line of Fortran we still do you
Dialogue: 0,0:05:14.41,0:05:18.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,use for transfer any of the old-timers
Dialogue: 0,0:05:16.12,0:05:19.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,here who think that that their skills
Dialogue: 0,0:05:18.28,0:05:21.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are no longer valid
Dialogue: 0,0:05:19.87,0:05:25.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they asked a valid yes you can have a
Dialogue: 0,0:05:21.76,0:05:26.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,job with each of these colored bands
Dialogue: 0,0:05:25.24,0:05:28.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with a single subroutine a single
Dialogue: 0,0:05:26.74,0:05:30.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,calculation of some physical aspect of
Dialogue: 0,0:05:28.72,0:05:32.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the code arm and you would put them into
Dialogue: 0,0:05:30.70,0:05:33.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a machine one at a time and if you got
Dialogue: 0,0:05:32.77,0:05:36.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,them in the wrong order you have to
Dialogue: 0,0:05:33.88,0:05:39.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,start over again it would take months to
Dialogue: 0,0:05:36.25,0:05:42.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,produce any output arm and it was a very
Dialogue: 0,0:05:39.85,0:05:44.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,very clunky thing and so obviously if
Dialogue: 0,0:05:42.39,0:05:46.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you have to write out every line using
Dialogue: 0,0:05:44.29,0:05:48.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,punch cards you don't include or of
Dialogue: 0,0:05:46.15,0:05:49.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,comments so you know we inherited this
Dialogue: 0,0:05:48.55,0:05:50.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,code and we're going
Dialogue: 0,0:05:49.51,0:05:52.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what does this go do we have no idea
Dialogue: 0,0:05:50.92,0:05:57.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,anyway so it doesn't quite look like
Dialogue: 0,0:05:52.99,0:06:00.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that anymore but the the essence the the
Dialogue: 0,0:05:57.94,0:06:02.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,idea of what we're doing is directly
Dialogue: 0,0:06:00.52,0:06:04.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,related to what we did back in the
Dialogue: 0,0:06:02.74,0:06:08.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,nineteen eighties and in the missus
Dialogue: 0,0:06:04.99,0:06:10.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,before that 1970 ok so how do we
Dialogue: 0,0:06:08.68,0:06:13.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,actually go around building a model we
Dialogue: 0,0:06:10.75,0:06:16.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,do it one piece of the time and i use
Dialogue: 0,0:06:13.15,0:06:17.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the a jigsaw analogy by the beginning
Dialogue: 0,0:06:16.54,0:06:20.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I'll kind of work with that a little
Dialogue: 0,0:06:17.77,0:06:26.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,bit now it's very much like putting
Dialogue: 0,0:06:20.83,0:06:28.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,together pieces of a jigsaw so this is a
Dialogue: 0,0:06:26.20,0:06:31.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,piece of the jigsaw it's a picture of
Dialogue: 0,0:06:28.54,0:06:34.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,arctic sea ice taken from a flight going
Dialogue: 0,0:06:31.72,0:06:36.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,across the North Pole each of those ice
Dialogue: 0,0:06:34.39,0:06:38.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,floes that you can barely see there are
Dialogue: 0,0:06:36.82,0:06:39.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a few tens of kilometers across and you
Dialogue: 0,0:06:38.92,0:06:42.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,can see leads
Dialogue: 0,0:06:39.86,0:06:43.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the middle i was the summertime so the
Dialogue: 0,0:06:42.17,0:06:46.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,ice is breaking up
Dialogue: 0,0:06:43.52,0:06:47.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and so there's a lot of physics is going
Dialogue: 0,0:06:46.19,0:06:50.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on there right there is the physics of
Dialogue: 0,0:06:47.66,0:06:51.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the Sun coming in reflecting off the ice
Dialogue: 0,0:06:50.30,0:06:53.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because it's white
Dialogue: 0,0:06:51.53,0:06:56.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there's the physics of the of the the
Dialogue: 0,0:06:53.81,0:06:58.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,heat being absorbed in the ice melting
Dialogue: 0,0:06:56.60,0:07:00.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it from the top and is melting from the
Dialogue: 0,0:06:58.16,0:07:02.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,bottom going on at the same time there's
Dialogue: 0,0:07:00.20,0:07:04.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,dynamics how each of the ice floes
Dialogue: 0,0:07:02.24,0:07:07.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,interacts with each other all of those
Dialogue: 0,0:07:04.37,0:07:10.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,things can be encapsulated measured and
Dialogue: 0,0:07:07.39,0:07:11.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,put into some kind of formula so here
Dialogue: 0,0:07:10.39,0:07:18.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are some of the formulas
Dialogue: 0,0:07:11.39,0:07:20.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,yeah so physics you know I don't expect
Dialogue: 0,0:07:18.53,0:07:22.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you two to look at these your critique
Dialogue: 0,0:07:20.57,0:07:23.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,these are but this is basically what we
Dialogue: 0,0:07:22.58,0:07:25.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,do we write down what the boundary
Dialogue: 0,0:07:23.75,0:07:28.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,conditions are we use calculus we use
Dialogue: 0,0:07:25.61,0:07:31.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,basic conservation of energy that's
Dialogue: 0,0:07:28.52,0:07:34.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's a big deal and for each of those
Dialogue: 0,0:07:31.39,0:07:37.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,different things we then take some code
Dialogue: 0,0:07:34.85,0:07:39.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you get lots and lots of lines of
Dialogue: 0,0:07:37.69,0:07:42.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,code there are some comments now that
Dialogue: 0,0:07:39.11,0:07:45.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's pleasing arm mr. the last bit
Dialogue: 0,0:07:42.50,0:07:49.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that there's some melting and we make
Dialogue: 0,0:07:45.35,0:07:51.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that one piece into like a component and
Dialogue: 0,0:07:49.40,0:07:52.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so okay well when we do see ice that's
Dialogue: 0,0:07:51.65,0:07:56.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the piece of code that we're going to
Dialogue: 0,0:07:52.94,0:07:58.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,use and we can add in lots of different
Dialogue: 0,0:07:56.63,0:08:01.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,processes so that was the sea-ice
Dialogue: 0,0:07:58.79,0:08:04.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,process now there's one other processes
Dialogue: 0,0:08:01.16,0:08:08.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,associated with clouds there's a process
Dialogue: 0,0:08:04.22,0:08:10.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,associated with radiation and the solar
Dialogue: 0,0:08:08.93,0:08:12.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,radiation coming through the atmosphere
Dialogue: 0,0:08:10.46,0:08:14.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and being absorbed at the different
Dialogue: 0,0:08:12.32,0:08:19.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,layers of the atmosphere that's one more
Dialogue: 0,0:08:14.57,0:08:23.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,piece there are other pieces the winds
Dialogue: 0,0:08:19.64,0:08:25.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the way use and other pieces the
Dialogue: 0,0:08:23.12,0:08:27.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,flow of water through plants the flow of
Dialogue: 0,0:08:25.70,0:08:31.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,water and rivers back down to the ocean
Dialogue: 0,0:08:27.56,0:08:35.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so the point is that each of those bits
Dialogue: 0,0:08:31.19,0:08:37.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,makes up part of the picture of the
Dialogue: 0,0:08:35.24,0:08:40.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,climate system now I've left and pieces
Dialogue: 0,0:08:37.85,0:08:42.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,out because our picture of the timing
Dialogue: 0,0:08:40.70,0:08:46.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,system is not complete right we don't
Dialogue: 0,0:08:42.80,0:08:51.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,know everything about the system and yet
Dialogue: 0,0:08:46.43,0:08:53.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when we put it all together we end up
Dialogue: 0,0:08:51.11,0:08:56.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with a simulation
Dialogue: 0,0:08:53.48,0:09:00.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that has all of the emergent properties
Dialogue: 0,0:08:56.87,0:09:03.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we can see in the real world right
Dialogue: 0,0:09:00.14,0:09:05.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so these storm systems in the Southern
Dialogue: 0,0:09:03.79,0:09:07.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Ocean you can anybody has been to the
Dialogue: 0,0:09:05.72,0:09:09.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Southern Ocean knows exactly what they
Dialogue: 0,0:09:07.28,0:09:11.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,look like or storms in the North
Dialogue: 0,0:09:09.44,0:09:16.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Atlantic Kevin can tell you about those
Dialogue: 0,0:09:11.60,0:09:19.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,tropical cyclones in in the Pacific the
Dialogue: 0,0:09:16.10,0:09:21.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,convective bands in in the was a couple
Dialogue: 0,0:09:19.79,0:09:23.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of tropical cyclones are going to cycle
Dialogue: 0,0:09:21.38,0:09:29.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,around each other kind of meat
Dialogue: 0,0:09:23.84,0:09:32.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,yeah now within the code there was no
Dialogue: 0,0:09:29.60,0:09:35.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,code that says hey do an atmospheric
Dialogue: 0,0:09:32.33,0:09:37.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,River that hits Oregon there's no code
Dialogue: 0,0:09:35.15,0:09:40.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that says do tropical cyclones and make
Dialogue: 0,0:09:37.91,0:09:42.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,them dance around each other right
Dialogue: 0,0:09:40.16,0:09:45.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,all of these things are emergent
Dialogue: 0,0:09:42.26,0:09:47.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,properties that just arise from the fact
Dialogue: 0,0:09:45.23,0:09:50.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that the system that you're modeling is
Dialogue: 0,0:09:47.36,0:09:51.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,chaotic is dynamic and all of the
Dialogue: 0,0:09:50.29,0:09:54.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,different processes that we put together
Dialogue: 0,0:09:51.59,0:10:04.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,intersect and interact in ways that you
Dialogue: 0,0:09:54.95,0:10:09.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,can't predict a priori now just having
Dialogue: 0,0:10:04.58,0:10:12.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,done that i think is a intellectual
Dialogue: 0,0:10:09.44,0:10:14.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,endeavor worthy of of of Cato
Dialogue: 0,0:10:12.80,0:10:16.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and-and-and Chomsky right trying to
Dialogue: 0,0:10:14.81,0:10:18.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,understand exactly what's going on in
Dialogue: 0,0:10:16.94,0:10:21.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,such a complex system and being
Dialogue: 0,0:10:18.59,0:10:24.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,successful at doing so is an enormous
Dialogue: 0,0:10:21.62,0:10:28.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,challenge and i think one we can rightly
Dialogue: 0,0:10:24.50,0:10:31.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,be proud of but we're not just doing it
Dialogue: 0,0:10:28.40,0:10:35.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to understand the system we're doing it
Dialogue: 0,0:10:31.52,0:10:37.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because that system can be kicked in
Dialogue: 0,0:10:35.15,0:10:40.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,many many different ways and right now
Dialogue: 0,0:10:37.61,0:10:43.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,humans are kicking this system in a very
Dialogue: 0,0:10:40.31,0:10:44.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,particular way so let's look at some
Dialogue: 0,0:10:43.19,0:10:47.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,ways in which the system can be kept
Dialogue: 0,0:10:44.93,0:10:49.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,right so there are waffles in the
Dialogue: 0,0:10:47.00,0:10:51.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Earth's orbit these bubbles kind of make
Dialogue: 0,0:10:49.88,0:10:54.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a difference on ten thousand two hundred
Dialogue: 0,0:10:51.86,0:10:57.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,thousand year time scales and a big
Dialogue: 0,0:10:54.53,0:10:59.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,driver of the of the of the Ice Age
Dialogue: 0,0:10:57.74,0:11:04.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,cycle that we've been seeing for the
Dialogue: 0,0:10:59.66,0:11:05.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,past 2.5 million years right so Iceland
Dialogue: 0,0:11:04.69,0:11:06.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,used to have a lot more ice
Dialogue: 0,0:11:05.57,0:11:10.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's not quite as I see
Dialogue: 0,0:11:06.98,0:11:14.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as it used to be and and and it will get
Dialogue: 0,0:11:10.13,0:11:15.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,messy as well with 10,000 years ago
Dialogue: 0,0:11:14.21,0:11:16.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,20,000 years ago
Dialogue: 0,0:11:15.47,0:11:20.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Iceland was almost completely emaciated
Dialogue: 0,0:11:16.85,0:11:21.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,right all right yeah and that's due to
Dialogue: 0,0:11:20.36,0:11:24.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,these bubbles so that's that's a very
Dialogue: 0,0:11:21.86,0:11:26.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,powerful kick to the system right that's
Dialogue: 0,0:11:24.59,0:11:29.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,everything changed
Dialogue: 0,0:11:26.30,0:11:32.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you know can we understand that ok there
Dialogue: 0,0:11:29.66,0:11:35.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are changes because of the Sun the Sun
Dialogue: 0,0:11:32.39,0:11:37.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has cycles that has activity and it's
Dialogue: 0,0:11:35.29,0:11:40.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,over its lifetime of the lifetime of the
Dialogue: 0,0:11:37.19,0:11:42.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,earth has expanded and become more
Dialogue: 0,0:11:40.46,0:11:44.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,active by about thirty percent over the
Dialogue: 0,0:11:42.47,0:11:46.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,last four billion years that has an
Dialogue: 0,0:11:44.60,0:11:50.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,impact on the climate the set the solar
Dialogue: 0,0:11:46.88,0:11:52.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,cycles an 11-year cycle have an impact
Dialogue: 0,0:11:50.89,0:11:58.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on the climate we need to understand
Dialogue: 0,0:11:52.22,0:12:00.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,those things volcanoes as have also well
Dialogue: 0,0:11:58.40,0:12:02.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,aware have an impact on the climate not
Dialogue: 0,0:12:00.80,0:12:06.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,just locally but they can have a global
Dialogue: 0,0:12:02.69,0:12:07.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,impact on the climate by the injection
Dialogue: 0,0:12:06.23,0:12:10.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of sulfates into the stratosphere
Dialogue: 0,0:12:07.82,0:12:11.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,changing the albedo of the palette
Dialogue: 0,0:12:10.13,0:12:14.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,changing the amount of energy coming
Dialogue: 0,0:12:11.42,0:12:16.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,into the system right so you're getting
Dialogue: 0,0:12:14.18,0:12:20.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the idea there are lots of different
Dialogue: 0,0:12:16.40,0:12:23.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,ways in which we can change the climate
Dialogue: 0,0:12:20.78,0:12:25.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,right or the system itself can be
Dialogue: 0,0:12:23.60,0:12:28.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,changed whether its biomass burning
Dialogue: 0,0:12:25.43,0:12:31.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,ozone depletion land-use change
Dialogue: 0,0:12:28.10,0:12:35.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,contrails or of course greenhouse gases
Dialogue: 0,0:12:31.58,0:12:37.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,all of these change the balances and the
Dialogue: 0,0:12:35.45,0:12:39.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,flows of energy in the system and when
Dialogue: 0,0:12:37.58,0:12:40.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you change the balances and flows of
Dialogue: 0,0:12:39.38,0:12:49.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,energy in the system you change the
Dialogue: 0,0:12:40.97,0:12:51.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,climate so what we need to understand is
Dialogue: 0,0:12:49.10,0:12:53.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whether the simulations that i discussed
Dialogue: 0,0:12:51.19,0:12:56.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,before where the weather models are the
Dialogue: 0,0:12:53.60,0:12:57.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,climate models whether they have skill I
Dialogue: 0,0:12:56.18,0:12:59.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,want to be very clear about this
Dialogue: 0,0:12:57.77,0:13:02.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,these models are not complete right
Dialogue: 0,0:12:59.72,0:13:04.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there were holes in the jigsaw there's
Dialogue: 0,0:13:02.51,0:13:07.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whole bunches of things that we have to
Dialogue: 0,0:13:04.25,0:13:10.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and empirically fill-in write the word
Dialogue: 0,0:13:07.61,0:13:12.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we can't predict from a priori
Dialogue: 0,0:13:10.52,0:13:16.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,considerations
Dialogue: 0,0:13:12.68,0:13:17.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so why do we think that these things are
Dialogue: 0,0:13:16.34,0:13:19.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,useful
Dialogue: 0,0:13:17.30,0:13:20.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we think that they're useful because
Dialogue: 0,0:13:19.31,0:13:24.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they have
Dialogue: 0,0:13:20.26,0:13:26.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,demonstrated skill skill is I model
Dialogue: 0,0:13:24.61,0:13:28.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,results skillful if it's better than
Dialogue: 0,0:13:26.98,0:13:31.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what you would have had otherwise
Dialogue: 0,0:13:28.69,0:13:34.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's not to say it's perfect it's not
Dialogue: 0,0:13:31.57,0:13:36.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to say that there are uncertainties but
Dialogue: 0,0:13:34.54,0:13:38.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's something that's better than what
Dialogue: 0,0:13:36.22,0:13:41.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you had before with the weather forecast
Dialogue: 0,0:13:38.86,0:13:43.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you could stick your finger in the air
Dialogue: 0,0:13:41.89,0:13:46.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and predict what the weather is going to
Dialogue: 0,0:13:43.72,0:13:48.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,be tomorrow based on just persistence of
Dialogue: 0,0:13:46.54,0:13:50.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the weather today that probably doesn't
Dialogue: 0,0:13:48.55,0:13:54.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,work very well here but it works quite
Dialogue: 0,0:13:50.56,0:13:56.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,well in New York but we can do better
Dialogue: 0,0:13:54.39,0:13:58.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than that with models right weather
Dialogue: 0,0:13:56.32,0:14:00.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,models a skillful despite the fact that
Dialogue: 0,0:13:58.78,0:14:03.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there was that whole range of things
Dialogue: 0,0:14:00.19,0:14:05.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we had to empirically include and
Dialogue: 0,0:14:03.19,0:14:09.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so we need to demonstrate that climate
Dialogue: 0,0:14:05.92,0:14:11.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,models are skillful at estimating the
Dialogue: 0,0:14:09.40,0:14:13.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,changes to the climate when you kick
Dialogue: 0,0:14:11.65,0:14:15.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that system in all of the different
Dialogue: 0,0:14:13.72,0:14:16.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,myriad ways that that system can be
Dialogue: 0,0:14:15.79,0:14:19.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,kicked
Dialogue: 0,0:14:16.60,0:14:22.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,okay so is that true is there are the
Dialogue: 0,0:14:19.24,0:14:24.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,models skillful so well they know
Dialogue: 0,0:14:22.29,0:14:27.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,volcanoes are a current topic of
Dialogue: 0,0:14:24.100,0:14:29.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,interest in in Iceland I said well
Dialogue: 0,0:14:27.76,0:14:31.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,actually not not anymore right we're
Dialogue: 0,0:14:29.29,0:14:33.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,done with the volcanoes right so that's
Dialogue: 0,0:14:31.66,0:14:36.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it for the next week right
Dialogue: 0,0:14:33.85,0:14:40.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,remember no more volcanoes ok
Dialogue: 0,0:14:36.100,0:14:42.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,all models skillful with respect to big
Dialogue: 0,0:14:40.59,0:14:45.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,volcanic forces so the large big volcano
Dialogue: 0,0:14:42.52,0:14:47.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we had that had a global impact was
Dialogue: 0,0:14:45.13,0:14:51.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,magnitude but went off in june nineteen
Dialogue: 0,0:14:47.19,0:14:54.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,ninety one arm and this is a graph of
Dialogue: 0,0:14:51.37,0:14:56.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how much stuff basically there was in
Dialogue: 0,0:14:54.40,0:14:59.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the stratosphere are from the main
Dialogue: 0,0:14:56.89,0:15:01.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,eruption and then it took like three or
Dialogue: 0,0:14:59.17,0:15:02.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,four years for all that stuff to kind of
Dialogue: 0,0:15:01.36,0:15:05.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,fall out of the atmosphere
Dialogue: 0,0:15:02.98,0:15:07.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,ok so this is actually quite a large
Dialogue: 0,0:15:05.29,0:15:09.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,amount of stuff right on the amount of
Dialogue: 0,0:15:07.75,0:15:13.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,stuff that that is there that's the
Dialogue: 0,0:15:09.67,0:15:17.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,technical term stuff and got some people
Dialogue: 0,0:15:13.33,0:15:21.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,pay attention okay
Dialogue: 0,0:15:17.10,0:15:24.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the amount of stuff that was there cause
Dialogue: 0,0:15:21.21,0:15:26.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the radiation to be from the Sun to be
Dialogue: 0,0:15:24.45,0:15:28.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,significantly less than it was right
Dialogue: 0,0:15:26.64,0:15:31.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because each of those little particles
Dialogue: 0,0:15:28.53,0:15:33.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is white and so when the Sun shines on a
Dialogue: 0,0:15:31.71,0:15:35.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,white particle it reflects back to space
Dialogue: 0,0:15:33.36,0:15:37.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that reduces the total amount of
Dialogue: 0,0:15:35.91,0:15:39.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,energy coming in the amount of energy
Dialogue: 0,0:15:37.56,0:15:41.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,going out was pretty much the same and
Dialogue: 0,0:15:39.57,0:15:43.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so you have less energy coming into the
Dialogue: 0,0:15:41.46,0:15:46.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,system right so basic conservation of
Dialogue: 0,0:15:43.65,0:15:48.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,energy suggest that that would lead to a
Dialogue: 0,0:15:46.62,0:15:51.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,cooling of the planet but by how much
Dialogue: 0,0:15:48.66,0:15:53.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how much should the planet call with a 3
Dialogue: 0,0:15:51.93,0:15:57.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,watt per meter squared energy imbalance
Dialogue: 0,0:15:53.82,0:15:59.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,over a few years you have to do the
Dialogue: 0,0:15:57.24,0:16:02.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,calculation and the climate models allow
Dialogue: 0,0:15:59.16,0:16:04.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you to do that calculation so what do
Dialogue: 0,0:16:02.10,0:16:06.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they suggest well what they suggested
Dialogue: 0,0:16:04.41,0:16:09.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are the the little thin lines that you
Dialogue: 0,0:16:06.99,0:16:10.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,can see there's a bit of noise because
Dialogue: 0,0:16:09.30,0:16:13.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of the different weather and each of
Dialogue: 0,0:16:10.35,0:16:14.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,those models and then the red line there
Dialogue: 0,0:16:13.14,0:16:17.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is what actually happened
Dialogue: 0,0:16:14.67,0:16:21.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so the models were able to estimate
Dialogue: 0,0:16:17.85,0:16:23.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,quite precisely the rate at which this
Dialogue: 0,0:16:21.27,0:16:26.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the climate called because of this
Dialogue: 0,0:16:23.16,0:16:28.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,forcing and we know that is better than
Dialogue: 0,0:16:26.76,0:16:30.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what we could just worked out by doing a
Dialogue: 0,0:16:28.95,0:16:32.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,calculation on the back of the envelope
Dialogue: 0,0:16:30.18,0:16:35.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and in fact the first time that we did
Dialogue: 0,0:16:32.43,0:16:39.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that calculation we did it in October
Dialogue: 0,0:16:35.28,0:16:41.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,1991 and made this prediction before any
Dialogue: 0,0:16:39.51,0:16:45.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of those changes had actually occurred
Dialogue: 0,0:16:41.97,0:16:47.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the model was skillful and it wasn't
Dialogue: 0,0:16:45.30,0:16:49.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,just fearful estimating the global
Dialogue: 0,0:16:47.37,0:16:51.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,cooling which you know kind of my energy
Dialogue: 0,0:16:49.59,0:16:54.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,balance arguments you might argue was
Dialogue: 0,0:16:51.33,0:16:58.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the easy part but it was also skillful
Dialogue: 0,0:16:54.54,0:17:01.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at predicting that in the wintertime you
Dialogue: 0,0:16:58.35,0:17:03.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,got a strange pattern in Europe where
Dialogue: 0,0:17:01.50,0:17:06.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you actually get winter warming after a
Dialogue: 0,0:17:03.57,0:17:08.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,big volcano and that turns out to be a
Dialogue: 0,0:17:06.21,0:17:10.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,dynamic response changes in the winds
Dialogue: 0,0:17:08.97,0:17:13.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that are affected by the temperature
Dialogue: 0,0:17:10.77,0:17:17.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,changes our loft that actually push more
Dialogue: 0,0:17:13.80,0:17:19.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,warm water over more warm air over over
Dialogue: 0,0:17:17.67,0:17:21.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Europe during the wintertime and that is
Dialogue: 0,0:17:19.68,0:17:24.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,also captured by the model and the
Dialogue: 0,0:17:21.45,0:17:26.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,models are skillful even with the
Dialogue: 0,0:17:24.00,0:17:29.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,dynamics and the radiation and the
Dialogue: 0,0:17:26.10,0:17:30.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,temperature there are lots of other
Dialogue: 0,0:17:29.28,0:17:32.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,example
Dialogue: 0,0:17:30.17,0:17:34.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,solar cycles you know we can measure and
Dialogue: 0,0:17:32.30,0:17:36.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,calculate the change in ozone in the
Dialogue: 0,0:17:34.16,0:17:38.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,stratosphere because of this change in
Dialogue: 0,0:17:36.20,0:17:41.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the sun with models are skillful because
Dialogue: 0,0:17:38.42,0:17:44.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of that in overall changes those wobbles
Dialogue: 0,0:17:41.84,0:17:46.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the Earth's orbit like even 6,000
Dialogue: 0,0:17:44.18,0:17:48.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,years ago they were relatively important
Dialogue: 0,0:17:46.37,0:17:50.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we can look at that difference and
Dialogue: 0,0:17:48.14,0:17:52.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the models are skillful estimating how
Dialogue: 0,0:17:50.63,0:17:55.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the northern hemisphere temperatures got
Dialogue: 0,0:17:52.91,0:17:58.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,better because our change because of
Dialogue: 0,0:17:55.13,0:18:01.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that ok
Dialogue: 0,0:17:58.40,0:18:03.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the response to the ice sheets 20,000
Dialogue: 0,0:18:01.70,0:18:04.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,years ago the models are successful are
Dialogue: 0,0:18:03.14,0:18:06.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,getting that right
Dialogue: 0,0:18:04.13,0:18:07.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the 20th century multi-decade all trends
Dialogue: 0,0:18:06.29,0:18:10.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,were successful getting that right
Dialogue: 0,0:18:07.91,0:18:12.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,models are skillful even bizarre things
Dialogue: 0,0:18:10.94,0:18:14.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that have happened to the climate about
Dialogue: 0,0:18:12.11,0:18:17.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,8,000 years ago there was a huge great
Dialogue: 0,0:18:14.63,0:18:18.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,lake that covered most of Manitoba and
Dialogue: 0,0:18:17.59,0:18:20.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Ontario much larger than all of the
Dialogue: 0,0:18:18.59,0:18:25.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,great lakes that exists right now and it
Dialogue: 0,0:18:20.75,0:18:27.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was kept in place by the remnant by the
Dialogue: 0,0:18:25.37,0:18:30.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,remnant ice sheet that was kind of
Dialogue: 0,0:18:27.98,0:18:32.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,standing over hudson bay about 8,000
Dialogue: 0,0:18:30.35,0:18:34.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,years ago that I sheet finally broke and
Dialogue: 0,0:18:32.93,0:18:37.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,all of that water that was kept in that
Dialogue: 0,0:18:34.52,0:18:38.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Lake rushed into hudson bay and into the
Dialogue: 0,0:18:37.90,0:18:41.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,labrador sea and into the North Atlantic
Dialogue: 0,0:18:38.63,0:18:43.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,around here and at that same time there
Dialogue: 0,0:18:41.66,0:18:46.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is evidence of a cooling event that
Dialogue: 0,0:18:43.73,0:18:48.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,happened in the Greenland ice cause in
Dialogue: 0,0:18:46.19,0:18:49.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Europe and in Newfoundland and all
Dialogue: 0,0:18:48.35,0:18:52.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,around here and I'm sure that they would
Dialogue: 0,0:18:49.85,0:18:55.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a nice and have been affected as well
Dialogue: 0,0:18:52.19,0:18:57.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the models are skillful at responding to
Dialogue: 0,0:18:55.34,0:19:00.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that water going in by changing the
Dialogue: 0,0:18:57.80,0:19:01.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,circulation in the in the ocean and by
Dialogue: 0,0:19:00.62,0:19:03.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,changing the temperatures in the
Dialogue: 0,0:19:01.91,0:19:05.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,rainfall patterns associated with that
Dialogue: 0,0:19:03.38,0:19:08.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the models are skillful across a whole
Dialogue: 0,0:19:05.60,0:19:09.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,range of different ways that we can kick
Dialogue: 0,0:19:08.21,0:19:14.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that system
Dialogue: 0,0:19:09.32,0:19:17.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,ok
Dialogue: 0,0:19:14.13,0:19:20.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that system is complicated and
Dialogue: 0,0:19:17.61,0:19:23.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,global right this is a simulation again
Dialogue: 0,0:19:20.91,0:19:25.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of tiny little atmospheric particles and
Dialogue: 0,0:19:23.97,0:19:28.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,all the different kinds of particles
Dialogue: 0,0:19:25.11,0:19:31.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that you can have these orange swirls
Dialogue: 0,0:19:28.59,0:19:33.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are dust coming from the Sahara Desert
Dialogue: 0,0:19:31.50,0:19:35.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you can see them affecting the
Dialogue: 0,0:19:33.30,0:19:37.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,climate and affecting a deposition of
Dialogue: 0,0:19:35.91,0:19:41.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,stuff all the way across the Atlantic
Dialogue: 0,0:19:37.77,0:19:43.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the white wispy parts over over Europe
Dialogue: 0,0:19:41.43,0:19:45.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you can see that's atmospheric pollution
Dialogue: 0,0:19:43.32,0:19:47.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,sulfates right and you can see that
Dialogue: 0,0:19:45.27,0:19:50.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what's happens in Europe does not stay
Dialogue: 0,0:19:47.22,0:19:53.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in Europe the green and the Reds
Dialogue: 0,0:19:50.76,0:19:54.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,indicate where there is our where there
Dialogue: 0,0:19:53.25,0:19:57.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are fires and whether its biomass
Dialogue: 0,0:19:54.78,0:19:58.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,burning and where is organic carbon and
Dialogue: 0,0:19:57.00,0:20:01.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,black carbon being put into the
Dialogue: 0,0:19:58.47,0:20:02.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,atmosphere and again these things don't
Dialogue: 0,0:20:01.17,0:20:04.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,just stay where they are stuck there
Dialogue: 0,0:20:02.94,0:20:08.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they started you can see the pollution
Dialogue: 0,0:20:04.95,0:20:12.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,over China that again does not just stay
Dialogue: 0,0:20:08.19,0:20:15.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in China the blue dots associated with
Dialogue: 0,0:20:12.48,0:20:17.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the big tropical storms are associated
Dialogue: 0,0:20:15.30,0:20:20.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with sea salt particles so as the winds
Dialogue: 0,0:20:17.85,0:20:23.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whip up the waves small particles of sea
Dialogue: 0,0:20:20.61,0:20:26.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,salt which are a key element in the
Dialogue: 0,0:20:23.28,0:20:28.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,production of low-level clouds you can
Dialogue: 0,0:20:26.37,0:20:32.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,see them again in the in the Southern
Dialogue: 0,0:20:28.44,0:20:35.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Ocean all of these things are connected
Dialogue: 0,0:20:32.16,0:20:38.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and important and we can answer now with
Dialogue: 0,0:20:35.61,0:20:40.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the click with the with the computer
Dialogue: 0,0:20:38.25,0:20:42.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,models that we have we can answer
Dialogue: 0,0:20:40.50,0:20:43.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,questions that associate that are
Dialogue: 0,0:20:42.30,0:20:47.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,associated with all of those things
Dialogue: 0,0:20:43.86,0:20:52.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how does pollution change climate and
Dialogue: 0,0:20:47.70,0:20:55.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,air quality all at the same time I love
Dialogue: 0,0:20:52.98,0:20:57.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this but this this animation that they
Dialogue: 0,0:20:55.53,0:20:59.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they did a really nice job here this is
Dialogue: 0,0:20:57.24,0:21:01.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,my colleagues at NASA Goddard Space
Dialogue: 0,0:20:59.97,0:21:03.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Flight Center and now there's another
Dialogue: 0,0:21:01.47,0:21:06.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,volcano in Madagascar that just went off
Dialogue: 0,0:21:03.51,0:21:08.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and so you can include all thoughts of
Dialogue: 0,0:21:06.45,0:21:10.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,things in these models and answer all
Dialogue: 0,0:21:08.40,0:21:15.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,sorts of actually quite subtle and
Dialogue: 0,0:21:10.56,0:21:19.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,interesting nuance questions
Dialogue: 0,0:21:15.46,0:21:22.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how things work over the 20th century
Dialogue: 0,0:21:19.99,0:21:25.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when we've seen an amount of global
Dialogue: 0,0:21:22.57,0:21:28.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,warming right so is this is a model
Dialogue: 0,0:21:25.59,0:21:30.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,simulation this is the observations you
Dialogue: 0,0:21:28.59,0:21:32.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,can see the patterns of whether you know
Dialogue: 0,0:21:30.79,0:21:35.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they're not correlated the weather isn't
Dialogue: 0,0:21:32.62,0:21:38.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,predictable 50 years in advance but the
Dialogue: 0,0:21:35.65,0:21:40.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,emerging patterns have changed that you
Dialogue: 0,0:21:38.49,0:21:41.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,see towards the end of the 20th century
Dialogue: 0,0:21:40.24,0:21:45.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that we end up where we are today
Dialogue: 0,0:21:41.95,0:21:47.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,those patterns are predictable they are
Dialogue: 0,0:21:45.40,0:21:49.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,predicted by the models the models are
Dialogue: 0,0:21:47.56,0:21:51.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,skillful at getting these patterns right
Dialogue: 0,0:21:49.96,0:21:53.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this warming in the Arctic compared to
Dialogue: 0,0:21:51.97,0:21:55.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the Antarctic the warming over land
Dialogue: 0,0:21:53.80,0:21:57.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,compared to the ocean the warming in the
Dialogue: 0,0:21:55.27,0:22:04.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,North versus the woman in the south
Dialogue: 0,0:21:57.55,0:22:06.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,these are skillful models but then let's
Dialogue: 0,0:22:04.21,0:22:09.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,think about the real reason why we need
Dialogue: 0,0:22:06.70,0:22:12.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,models right and then this this comes
Dialogue: 0,0:22:09.10,0:22:14.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from a rebuttal that the two scientists
Dialogue: 0,0:22:12.67,0:22:17.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,wrote when somebody you know they talked
Dialogue: 0,0:22:14.62,0:22:20.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about modeling of of future tropical
Dialogue: 0,0:22:17.80,0:22:21.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,cyclones and somebody wrote a response
Dialogue: 0,0:22:20.20,0:22:24.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to them they say well why are you
Dialogue: 0,0:22:21.58,0:22:28.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,looking observations and they responded
Dialogue: 0,0:22:24.10,0:22:30.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,i think quite finally what if we had
Dialogue: 0,0:22:28.15,0:22:32.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,observations of the future we obviously
Dialogue: 0,0:22:30.34,0:22:36.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,would trust them more than models but
Dialogue: 0,0:22:32.59,0:22:40.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,unfortunately observations of the future
Dialogue: 0,0:22:36.61,0:22:43.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and not available at this time and
Dialogue: 0,0:22:40.45,0:22:45.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's funny but it's actually the real
Dialogue: 0,0:22:43.36,0:22:49.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,reason why we build models we want to
Dialogue: 0,0:22:45.43,0:22:51.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,have predictive capability of situations
Dialogue: 0,0:22:49.00,0:22:53.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where we don't yet have any observations
Dialogue: 0,0:22:51.13,0:22:55.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so that we can make plans accordingly
Dialogue: 0,0:22:53.65,0:22:57.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whether it's a weather forecast whether
Dialogue: 0,0:22:55.72,0:22:59.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's a climate forecasts whether it's an
Dialogue: 0,0:22:57.61,0:23:03.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,economic projection which we could get
Dialogue: 0,0:22:59.83,0:23:06.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,into is as well but Sir what we want our
Dialogue: 0,0:23:03.91,0:23:10.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is an ability to make informed decisions
Dialogue: 0,0:23:06.94,0:23:12.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about the future right so predictable
Dialogue: 0,0:23:10.27,0:23:15.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,lity and predicting the future is the
Dialogue: 0,0:23:12.46,0:23:16.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,absolute fundamental reason why we're
Dialogue: 0,0:23:15.67,0:23:18.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,looking at models right that's what
Dialogue: 0,0:23:16.93,0:23:21.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,science is all about making predictions
Dialogue: 0,0:23:18.31,0:23:22.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,testing your theories adapting them
Dialogue: 0,0:23:21.16,0:23:26.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,making them better making them more
Dialogue: 0,0:23:22.57,0:23:27.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,predictive so what does the future hold
Dialogue: 0,0:23:26.80,0:23:31.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what we have
Dialogue: 0,0:23:27.68,0:23:34.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the future of course our choices and
Dialogue: 0,0:23:31.43,0:23:37.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we don't have to fall down one
Dialogue: 0,0:23:34.70,0:23:40.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,particular line the economic an economy
Dialogue: 0,0:23:37.58,0:23:42.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,technology how we structure societies
Dialogue: 0,0:23:40.22,0:23:44.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,these things are not written in stone
Dialogue: 0,0:23:42.35,0:23:50.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we have choices society has choices you
Dialogue: 0,0:23:44.81,0:23:52.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,individuals have choices and these
Dialogue: 0,0:23:50.51,0:23:55.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,aren't you know completely accurate
Dialogue: 0,0:23:52.70,0:23:58.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,labels we don't know really what will
Dialogue: 0,0:23:55.85,0:24:02.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,happen if we just continue as we go
Dialogue: 0,0:23:58.40,0:24:03.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,along this is an estimate of that we
Dialogue: 0,0:24:02.00,0:24:06.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,have a pretty good idea of what it would
Dialogue: 0,0:24:03.83,0:24:09.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,take to bring everything kind of back
Dialogue: 0,0:24:06.17,0:24:12.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,down to the level that it was you know
Dialogue: 0,0:24:09.23,0:24:16.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at the beginning of this century this
Dialogue: 0,0:24:12.65,0:24:18.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,aggressive mitigation i am kevin will
Dialogue: 0,0:24:16.55,0:24:21.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,tell you this is not going to happen
Dialogue: 0,0:24:18.35,0:24:25.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this is the under two-degree world that
Dialogue: 0,0:24:21.86,0:24:26.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,people talk about sometimes business as
Dialogue: 0,0:24:25.34,0:24:29.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,usual
Dialogue: 0,0:24:26.27,0:24:31.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's a 56 degree world that's a
Dialogue: 0,0:24:29.72,0:24:33.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,totally different planet
Dialogue: 0,0:24:31.16,0:24:34.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,remember how different the ice age was
Dialogue: 0,0:24:33.14,0:24:36.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to today
Dialogue: 0,0:24:34.58,0:24:39.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,well that is just as different but in
Dialogue: 0,0:24:36.95,0:24:42.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the opposite direction the ice age was a
Dialogue: 0,0:24:39.44,0:24:44.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,different planet different organization
Dialogue: 0,0:24:42.14,0:24:47.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of ecosystems where people lived where
Dialogue: 0,0:24:44.51,0:24:50.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,things live where things grew the same
Dialogue: 0,0:24:47.51,0:24:53.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,will be true for the business-as-usual
Dialogue: 0,0:24:50.48,0:24:58.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,planet where were more likely to end up
Dialogue: 0,0:24:53.87,0:25:00.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in my opinion is some effort serious
Dialogue: 0,0:24:58.49,0:25:02.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,mitigation not today not tomorrow maybe
Dialogue: 0,0:25:00.65,0:25:05.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the next 10 years 20 years 30 is
Dialogue: 0,0:25:02.84,0:25:08.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,armed and now I'll still be a planet
Dialogue: 0,0:25:05.45,0:25:11.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that has significantly warmer
Dialogue: 0,0:25:08.99,0:25:13.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,temperatures particularly on land
Dialogue: 0,0:25:11.39,0:25:16.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,particularly in the North particularly
Dialogue: 0,0:25:13.70,0:25:19.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the Arctic this will be a radically
Dialogue: 0,0:25:16.76,0:25:22.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,different planet as well but exactly how
Dialogue: 0,0:25:19.52,0:25:26.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,different is still to be determined but
Dialogue: 0,0:25:22.64,0:25:31.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the choices are really ours to make
Dialogue: 0,0:25:26.21,0:25:33.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,now I'm a scientist and and I spend my
Dialogue: 0,0:25:31.43,0:25:35.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,time working on those small scale
Dialogue: 0,0:25:33.74,0:25:37.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,processes and the encapsulation of all
Dialogue: 0,0:25:35.75,0:25:39.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of that physics that you store in those
Dialogue: 0,0:25:37.40,0:25:42.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,animations
Dialogue: 0,0:25:39.30,0:25:47.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and these projections these predictions
Dialogue: 0,0:25:42.36,0:25:50.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,put us in a very odd position and it was
Dialogue: 0,0:25:47.100,0:25:56.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,very clearly encapsulated by showed
Dialogue: 0,0:25:50.76,0:25:59.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Rowland who are was the one of the the
Dialogue: 0,0:25:56.64,0:26:01.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,chemists who discovered the reactions
Dialogue: 0,0:25:59.82,0:26:03.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that led to ozone depletion and some of
Dialogue: 0,0:26:01.74,0:26:06.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you here will remember spray cans and
Dialogue: 0,0:26:03.96,0:26:09.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,freon and the Montreal Protocol and how
Dialogue: 0,0:26:06.39,0:26:12.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that was negotiated and how that changed
Dialogue: 0,0:26:09.48,0:26:15.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so sure Roland understood quite clearly
Dialogue: 0,0:26:12.75,0:26:17.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the consequences of having made
Dialogue: 0,0:26:15.60,0:26:22.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,scientific discoveries that have
Dialogue: 0,0:26:17.73,0:26:25.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,real-world implications and he said in
Dialogue: 0,0:26:22.26,0:26:27.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,an interview what's the use of having
Dialogue: 0,0:26:25.41,0:26:30.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,developed a science well enough to make
Dialogue: 0,0:26:27.39,0:26:33.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,predictions if in the end all willing to
Dialogue: 0,0:26:30.99,0:26:37.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,do is stand around and wait for them to
Dialogue: 0,0:26:33.27,0:26:41.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,come true and that's really the dilemma
Dialogue: 0,0:26:37.11,0:26:44.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that people like me fais do we just
Dialogue: 0,0:26:41.28,0:26:46.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,continue to make predictions or do we go
Dialogue: 0,0:26:44.70,0:26:49.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,out and tell people about what these
Dialogue: 0,0:26:46.65,0:26:51.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,predictions mean do we go and help
Dialogue: 0,0:26:49.65,0:26:53.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,people work out what they should do
Dialogue: 0,0:26:51.78,0:26:57.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about the energy system i'm not an
Dialogue: 0,0:26:53.100,0:26:58.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,expert in energy systems you know should
Dialogue: 0,0:26:57.12,0:27:00.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we use nuclear power should be used
Dialogue: 0,0:26:58.68,0:27:01.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,geothermal power should we do this
Dialogue: 0,0:27:00.59,0:27:04.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,should we do that
Dialogue: 0,0:27:01.11,0:27:08.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,those are decisions that are not up to
Dialogue: 0,0:27:04.41,0:27:11.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,me though I would like to think that the
Dialogue: 0,0:27:08.40,0:27:14.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,information that we produce informs the
Dialogue: 0,0:27:11.61,0:27:16.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,decisions that you make individually and
Dialogue: 0,0:27:14.64,0:27:22.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that you make as a city or as a country
Dialogue: 0,0:27:16.92,0:27:28.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and as the world and I don't know what
Dialogue: 0,0:27:22.53,0:27:34.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,our future will hold arm but i'm i'm
Dialogue: 0,0:27:28.59,0:27:37.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,hopeful that whatever future we choose
Dialogue: 0,0:27:34.44,0:27:42.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's an informed future so thank you
Dialogue: 0,0:27:37.29,0:27:42.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,very much