WEBVTT 00:00:00.080 --> 00:00:02.480 Thanks to Brilliant for supporting  this episode of SciShow. 00:00:02.480 --> 00:00:04.720 If you’re looking to grow  your STEM skills this year, 00:00:04.720 --> 00:00:09.200 head Brilliant.org/SciShow and check  out their Geometry Fundamentals course. 00:00:09.200 --> 00:00:12.720 This episode was filmed on January 19th, 2022. 00:00:12.720 --> 00:00:15.440 For up to date information  on the COVID-19 pandemic, 00:00:15.440 --> 00:00:17.228 check out our playlist linked in the description. 00:00:17.228 --> 00:00:20.480 [♪ INTRO] 00:00:20.480 --> 00:00:25.520 Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic we’ve  seen new variants of concern of SARS-CoV-2, 00:00:25.520 --> 00:00:27.360 the virus that causes COVID-19. 00:00:27.360 --> 00:00:30.720 The World Health Organization gives  names to new versions of the virus 00:00:30.720 --> 00:00:35.200 that it determines might have more of an  impact on people, say by spreading more easily, 00:00:35.200 --> 00:00:39.200 causing more severe disease, or being better  at getting around our body’s defenses. 00:00:39.200 --> 00:00:41.680 The latest variant making headlines is Omicron. 00:00:41.680 --> 00:00:44.560 It was first identified in late November of 2021. 00:00:44.560 --> 00:00:48.800 But as is always the case with this pandemic,  we’re still trying to learn about its effects, 00:00:48.800 --> 00:00:52.160 and what this new variant means for  the overall course of the pandemic. 00:00:52.160 --> 00:00:53.360 Here’s what we know right now. 00:00:53.360 --> 00:00:57.520 Omicron is spreading quickly, and many experts  predict it will overtake the Delta variant 00:00:57.520 --> 00:01:00.800 as the dominant variant of SARS-CoV-2 worldwide. 00:01:00.800 --> 00:01:04.560 You or your loved ones might have already  been affected by it, given its rapid spread. 00:01:04.560 --> 00:01:08.320 Part of the reason for the rapid spread is  that this version of the virus appears to be 00:01:08.320 --> 00:01:12.800 more infectious, meaning more likely to spread  from person to person, than previous ones. 00:01:12.800 --> 00:01:17.680 For example, data from the UK and Denmark  suggest that Omicron is more likely than Delta 00:01:17.680 --> 00:01:21.840 to spread within a household, even in  cases where all members of that household 00:01:21.840 --> 00:01:24.160 had been vaccinated and received booster shots. 00:01:24.160 --> 00:01:28.560 The Danish study is a preprint, meaning  it has not been published or peer reviewed 00:01:28.560 --> 00:01:31.040 but has been uploaded to a pre-publication server. 00:01:31.040 --> 00:01:33.280 There’s no guarantee these preprints are correct, 00:01:33.280 --> 00:01:36.560 as they haven’t been through the  usual process of scientific scrutiny, 00:01:36.560 --> 00:01:40.080 but they are a way to share potentially  important information quickly. 00:01:40.080 --> 00:01:42.320 We’ll be talking about a few  other such studies today. 00:01:42.320 --> 00:01:46.320 With that out of the way, the reason for  the heightened infectiousness might be 00:01:46.320 --> 00:01:50.880 because Omicron is more adept at dodging the  antibody defenses that vaccines give us. 00:01:50.880 --> 00:01:54.800 Take one lab study, published in the journal  Cell, which looked at people who had been fully, 00:01:54.800 --> 00:01:59.600 recently vaccinated with either the  Moderna or Pfizer/BioNTech mRNA vaccines, 00:01:59.600 --> 00:02:01.520 or the Janssen viral vector vaccine. 00:02:01.520 --> 00:02:04.800 Half the people who had been  fully vaccinated, but not boosted, 00:02:04.800 --> 00:02:07.040 couldn’t mount an immune defense against Omicron. 00:02:07.040 --> 00:02:11.360 On top of that, preprint data out of  South Africa suggests previous infection 00:02:11.360 --> 00:02:16.240 with a different variant of the virus also  provides little immunity against Omicron. 00:02:16.240 --> 00:02:19.680 It also showed that people can  become infected more than once. 00:02:19.680 --> 00:02:23.120 However, other preprint data  suggest that the Janssen vaccine 00:02:23.120 --> 00:02:28.000 does provide protection against hospitalization,  so this one might need more time to untangle. 00:02:28.000 --> 00:02:32.320 Why? Well, most of these papers focused on  the neutralizing antibodies our immune system 00:02:32.320 --> 00:02:37.600 produces in response to a vaccine or the virus,  but that’s not all our immune system does. 00:02:37.600 --> 00:02:42.000 So the vaccines may be helping our immune  systems protect us from Omicron in other ways. 00:02:42.000 --> 00:02:45.200 Like the variants that came before  it, Omicron has a number of mutations 00:02:45.200 --> 00:02:49.040 compared to earlier versions, including  many that affect its spike protein. 00:02:49.040 --> 00:02:53.840 These may make it better at both infecting cells,  and avoiding antibodies that target the spike. 00:02:53.840 --> 00:02:57.120 It also seems to affect different parts  of the body compared to previous variants. 00:02:57.120 --> 00:03:00.480 Preprints from Hong Kong and the UK have  found that it’s up to 70 times better 00:03:00.480 --> 00:03:05.200 at replicating in the nose or upper airway than  Delta, which hangs out more in the lungs. 00:03:05.200 --> 00:03:09.600 More virus particles in the nose and throat  could mean it’s easier to sneeze or cough it out 00:03:09.600 --> 00:03:10.800 and help the virus spread. 00:03:10.800 --> 00:03:12.880 Hanging out in the upper airway could also be why 00:03:12.880 --> 00:03:15.120 this variant seems to cause less severe disease. 00:03:15.120 --> 00:03:18.960 This also may be why the reported symptoms  of Omicron are slightly different: 00:03:18.960 --> 00:03:21.680 more runny noses and sore  throats, and more ear aches, 00:03:21.680 --> 00:03:23.520 because everything is congested up here. 00:03:23.520 --> 00:03:27.600 Now, there seem to be fewer hospitalizations  around the world for Omicron than Delta, 00:03:27.600 --> 00:03:29.600 especially for vaccinated individuals. 00:03:29.600 --> 00:03:33.760 And when those hospitalizations do happen,  people tend to stay in the hospital for around 00:03:33.760 --> 00:03:37.120 70% less time regardless of vaccination status, 00:03:37.120 --> 00:03:39.280 according to one preprint  study out of California. 00:03:39.280 --> 00:03:44.160 Plus, a British report from December 2021  found that the risk of being hospitalized 00:03:44.160 --> 00:03:48.160 because of an Omicron infection was  around a third of the risk for Delta. 00:03:48.160 --> 00:03:52.240 This was a pretty small study, though, so take  the numbers with a statistical grain of salt. 00:03:52.240 --> 00:03:57.520 But – and this is a big but – the number of  hospitalizations is going up. And quickly. 00:03:57.520 --> 00:04:00.560 There’s still going to be a subset  of people who become seriously ill, 00:04:00.560 --> 00:04:02.240 even if the variant is milder. 00:04:02.240 --> 00:04:07.440 So if case numbers are high, that still represents  a large overall number of people who will need 00:04:07.440 --> 00:04:12.240 hospital care, and who may develop the group  of long-term symptoms known as long COVID. 00:04:12.240 --> 00:04:15.520 The question on a lot of people’s  minds now is what Omicron means 00:04:15.520 --> 00:04:16.800 for the future of the pandemic. 00:04:16.800 --> 00:04:19.680 One of the big questions is  how the virus will evolve. 00:04:19.680 --> 00:04:24.080 As in, whether we’ll keep seeing not just new  variants, but new variants that are dangerous. 00:04:24.080 --> 00:04:28.240 Researchers have warned that as the virus  continues to spread around the world unchecked, 00:04:28.240 --> 00:04:32.720 that creates opportunities for new mutations  that might turn into a variant of concern. 00:04:32.720 --> 00:04:36.080 So slowing transmission is as  important as it’s ever been. 00:04:36.080 --> 00:04:38.320 Fortunately, we’re not back to square 1. 00:04:38.320 --> 00:04:41.520 We know far more about this  virus than we did in early 2020. 00:04:41.520 --> 00:04:45.360 We know that non-pharmaceutical public  health interventions like social distancing, 00:04:45.360 --> 00:04:47.840 limiting the number of people in enclosed spaces, 00:04:47.840 --> 00:04:51.920 and testing and tracing policies will  continue to play a role in our response. 00:04:51.920 --> 00:04:55.520 Some people have predicted that  COVID-19 will become an endemic disease. 00:04:55.520 --> 00:04:58.720 That is, one where the disease is  always present in the community 00:04:58.720 --> 00:05:00.400 and causing infections on some level. 00:05:00.400 --> 00:05:05.200 However, many other experts point out that that’s  not a good outcome, whether or not it’s likely. 00:05:05.200 --> 00:05:07.520 Seasonal flu is an example of an endemic disease 00:05:07.520 --> 00:05:09.920 that still comes with a  significant death toll every year. 00:05:09.920 --> 00:05:14.160 Endemism is also slightly different from herd  immunity, which you may have heard discussed. 00:05:14.160 --> 00:05:16.960 That’s where most people have immunity  and the disease can only spread 00:05:16.960 --> 00:05:19.440 within particular sub-populations  who aren’t immune. 00:05:19.440 --> 00:05:21.840 And that’s something that experts  were never really banking on, 00:05:21.840 --> 00:05:23.520 despite public figures talking it up. 00:05:23.520 --> 00:05:27.280 Because this virus is just too good at  shifting into new forms for the defenses 00:05:27.280 --> 00:05:30.880 we get from vaccines, or prior  infection, to completely wall it off. 00:05:30.880 --> 00:05:33.840 It’s different from, say, measles,  where vaccination is effective 00:05:33.840 --> 00:05:35.520 at preventing disease in most people. 00:05:35.520 --> 00:05:38.240 But vaccination will still be a valuable tool. 00:05:38.240 --> 00:05:42.480 Expanding vaccination to as many people  as possible worldwide will give the virus 00:05:42.480 --> 00:05:46.640 fewer opportunities to mutate into new  variants, as overall infections decline. 00:05:46.640 --> 00:05:50.720 Plus, some scientists are using data  from all of the known previous variants 00:05:50.720 --> 00:05:53.840 to try to build predictive models  of what might be around the corner. 00:05:53.840 --> 00:05:58.480 A recent study in Science Translational  Medicine looked at what mutations have helped 00:05:58.480 --> 00:06:01.040 a particular virus variant spread in the past. 00:06:01.040 --> 00:06:04.800 The researchers analyzed what features  of that mutation helped it spread, 00:06:04.800 --> 00:06:07.440 and developed a computer model that they used to 00:06:07.440 --> 00:06:12.800 retroactively predict which mutations  have spread up to four months in advance. 00:06:12.800 --> 00:06:15.200 Now they hope to use the model as a starting point 00:06:15.200 --> 00:06:17.680 to help us prepare or screen for new variants. 00:06:17.680 --> 00:06:21.040 So when it comes to Omicron,  we’re not reliving March 2020. 00:06:21.040 --> 00:06:25.600 But there are also still lots of unknowns,  and this is still a dangerous virus. 00:06:25.600 --> 00:06:27.600 So stay safe, everybody. 00:06:27.600 --> 00:06:32.400 And if that’s enough news for you for one day,  why not dive into the sweet refuge of pure math? 00:06:32.400 --> 00:06:36.400 Brilliant’s math courses include their  new-and-improved Geometry Fundamentals course. 00:06:36.400 --> 00:06:39.680 It presents an intuitive,  satisfying introduction to geometry, 00:06:39.680 --> 00:06:42.400 with loads of interactive  content to keep you engaged. 00:06:42.400 --> 00:06:45.440 Brilliant is always upping the  interactivity of their courses. 00:06:45.440 --> 00:06:48.160 We’ve been working with Brilliant  for almost five years now 00:06:48.160 --> 00:06:50.320 and we get to see how they’re always improving. 00:06:50.320 --> 00:06:54.480 If you check them out, you’ll see how much work  goes into helping you learn from their courses! 00:06:54.480 --> 00:06:57.920 Even better, if you check them  out at Brilliant.org/SciShow, 00:06:57.920 --> 00:07:03.000 you can sign up to get 20% off an annual  premium subscription to Brilliant. So thanks! 00:07:03.110 --> 00:07:13.780 [♪ OUTRO]