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Dialogue: 0,0:00:00.08,0:00:02.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thanks to Brilliant for supporting \Nthis episode of SciShow.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:02.48,0:00:04.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you’re looking to grow \Nyour STEM skills this year,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:04.72,0:00:09.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,head Brilliant.org/SciShow and check \Nout their Geometry Fundamentals course.\N
Dialogue: 0,0:00:09.20,0:00:12.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This episode was filmed on January 19th, 2022.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:12.72,0:00:15.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For up to date information \Non the COVID-19 pandemic,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:15.44,0:00:17.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,check out our playlist linked in the description.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:17.23,0:00:20.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,[♪ INTRO]
Dialogue: 0,0:00:20.48,0:00:25.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic we’ve \Nseen new variants of concern of SARS-CoV-2,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:25.52,0:00:27.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the virus that causes COVID-19.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:27.36,0:00:30.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The World Health Organization gives \Nnames to new versions of the virus
Dialogue: 0,0:00:30.72,0:00:35.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that it determines might have more of an \Nimpact on people, say by spreading more easily,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:35.20,0:00:39.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,causing more severe disease, or being better \Nat getting around our body’s defenses.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:39.20,0:00:41.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The latest variant making headlines is Omicron.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:41.68,0:00:44.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It was first identified in late November of 2021.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:44.56,0:00:48.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But as is always the case with this pandemic, \Nwe’re still trying to learn about its effects,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:48.80,0:00:52.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and what this new variant means for \Nthe overall course of the pandemic.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:52.16,0:00:53.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Here’s what we know right now.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:53.36,0:00:57.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Omicron is spreading quickly, and many experts \Npredict it will overtake the Delta variant
Dialogue: 0,0:00:57.52,0:01:00.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as the dominant variant of SARS-CoV-2 worldwide. \N
Dialogue: 0,0:01:00.80,0:01:04.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You or your loved ones might have already \Nbeen affected by it, given its rapid spread.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:04.56,0:01:08.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Part of the reason for the rapid spread is \Nthat this version of the virus appears to be
Dialogue: 0,0:01:08.32,0:01:12.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,more infectious, meaning more likely to spread \Nfrom person to person, than previous ones.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:12.80,0:01:17.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For example, data from the UK and Denmark \Nsuggest that Omicron is more likely than Delta
Dialogue: 0,0:01:17.68,0:01:21.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to spread within a household, even in \Ncases where all members of that household
Dialogue: 0,0:01:21.84,0:01:24.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,had been vaccinated and received booster shots.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:24.16,0:01:28.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The Danish study is a preprint, meaning \Nit has not been published or peer reviewed
Dialogue: 0,0:01:28.56,0:01:31.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but has been uploaded to a pre-publication server.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:31.04,0:01:33.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There’s no guarantee these preprints are correct,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:33.28,0:01:36.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as they haven’t been through the \Nusual process of scientific scrutiny,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:36.56,0:01:40.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but they are a way to share potentially \Nimportant information quickly.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:40.08,0:01:42.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We’ll be talking about a few \Nother such studies today.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:42.32,0:01:46.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,With that out of the way, the reason for \Nthe heightened infectiousness might be
Dialogue: 0,0:01:46.32,0:01:50.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because Omicron is more adept at dodging the \Nantibody defenses that vaccines give us.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:50.88,0:01:54.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Take one lab study, published in the journal \NCell, which looked at people who had been fully,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:54.80,0:01:59.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,recently vaccinated with either the \NModerna or Pfizer/BioNTech mRNA vaccines,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:59.60,0:02:01.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or the Janssen viral vector vaccine.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:01.52,0:02:04.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Half the people who had been \Nfully vaccinated, but not boosted,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:04.80,0:02:07.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,couldn’t mount an immune defense against Omicron.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:07.04,0:02:11.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,On top of that, preprint data out of \NSouth Africa suggests previous infection
Dialogue: 0,0:02:11.36,0:02:16.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with a different variant of the virus also \Nprovides little immunity against Omicron.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:16.24,0:02:19.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It also showed that people can \Nbecome infected more than once.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:19.68,0:02:23.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,However, other preprint data \Nsuggest that the Janssen vaccine
Dialogue: 0,0:02:23.12,0:02:28.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,does provide protection against hospitalization, \Nso this one might need more time to untangle.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:28.00,0:02:32.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Why? Well, most of these papers focused on \Nthe neutralizing antibodies our immune system
Dialogue: 0,0:02:32.32,0:02:37.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,produces in response to a vaccine or the virus, \Nbut that’s not all our immune system does.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:37.60,0:02:42.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So the vaccines may be helping our immune \Nsystems protect us from Omicron in other ways.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:42.00,0:02:45.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Like the variants that came before \Nit, Omicron has a number of mutations
Dialogue: 0,0:02:45.20,0:02:49.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,compared to earlier versions, including \Nmany that affect its spike protein.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:49.04,0:02:53.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These may make it better at both infecting cells, \Nand avoiding antibodies that target the spike.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:53.84,0:02:57.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It also seems to affect different parts \Nof the body compared to previous variants.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:57.12,0:03:00.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Preprints from Hong Kong and the UK have \Nfound that it’s up to 70 times better
Dialogue: 0,0:03:00.48,0:03:05.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at replicating in the nose or upper airway than \NDelta, which hangs out more in the lungs.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:05.20,0:03:09.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,More virus particles in the nose and throat \Ncould mean it’s easier to sneeze or cough it out
Dialogue: 0,0:03:09.60,0:03:10.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and help the virus spread.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:10.80,0:03:12.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Hanging out in the upper airway could also be why
Dialogue: 0,0:03:12.88,0:03:15.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this variant seems to cause less severe disease.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:15.12,0:03:18.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This also may be why the reported symptoms \Nof Omicron are slightly different:
Dialogue: 0,0:03:18.96,0:03:21.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,more runny noses and sore \Nthroats, and more ear aches,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:21.68,0:03:23.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because everything is congested up here.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:23.52,0:03:27.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, there seem to be fewer hospitalizations \Naround the world for Omicron than Delta,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:27.60,0:03:29.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,especially for vaccinated individuals.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:29.60,0:03:33.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And when those hospitalizations do happen, \Npeople tend to stay in the hospital for around
Dialogue: 0,0:03:33.76,0:03:37.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,70% less time regardless of vaccination status,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:37.12,0:03:39.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,according to one preprint \Nstudy out of California.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:39.28,0:03:44.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Plus, a British report from December 2021 \Nfound that the risk of being hospitalized
Dialogue: 0,0:03:44.16,0:03:48.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because of an Omicron infection was \Naround a third of the risk for Delta.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:48.16,0:03:52.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This was a pretty small study, though, so take \Nthe numbers with a statistical grain of salt.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:52.24,0:03:57.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But – and this is a big but – the number of \Nhospitalizations is going up. And quickly.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:57.52,0:04:00.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There’s still going to be a subset \Nof people who become seriously ill,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:00.56,0:04:02.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,even if the variant is milder.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:02.24,0:04:07.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So if case numbers are high, that still represents \Na large overall number of people who will need
Dialogue: 0,0:04:07.44,0:04:12.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,hospital care, and who may develop the group \Nof long-term symptoms known as long COVID.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:12.24,0:04:15.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The question on a lot of people’s \Nminds now is what Omicron means
Dialogue: 0,0:04:15.52,0:04:16.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for the future of the pandemic.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:16.80,0:04:19.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One of the big questions is \Nhow the virus will evolve.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:19.68,0:04:24.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As in, whether we’ll keep seeing not just new \Nvariants, but new variants that are dangerous.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:24.08,0:04:28.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Researchers have warned that as the virus \Ncontinues to spread around the world unchecked,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:28.24,0:04:32.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that creates opportunities for new mutations \Nthat might turn into a variant of concern.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:32.72,0:04:36.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So slowing transmission is as \Nimportant as it’s ever been.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:36.08,0:04:38.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Fortunately, we’re not back to square 1.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:38.32,0:04:41.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We know far more about this \Nvirus than we did in early 2020.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:41.52,0:04:45.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We know that non-pharmaceutical public \Nhealth interventions like social distancing,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:45.36,0:04:47.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,limiting the number of people in enclosed spaces,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:47.84,0:04:51.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and testing and tracing policies will \Ncontinue to play a role in our response.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:51.92,0:04:55.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Some people have predicted that \NCOVID-19 will become an endemic disease.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:55.52,0:04:58.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That is, one where the disease is \Nalways present in the community
Dialogue: 0,0:04:58.72,0:05:00.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and causing infections on some level.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:00.40,0:05:05.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,However, many other experts point out that that’s \Nnot a good outcome, whether or not it’s likely.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:05.20,0:05:07.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Seasonal flu is an example of an endemic disease
Dialogue: 0,0:05:07.52,0:05:09.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that still comes with a \Nsignificant death toll every year.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:09.92,0:05:14.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Endemism is also slightly different from herd \Nimmunity, which you may have heard discussed.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:14.16,0:05:16.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That’s where most people have immunity \Nand the disease can only spread
Dialogue: 0,0:05:16.96,0:05:19.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,within particular sub-populations \Nwho aren’t immune.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:19.44,0:05:21.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that’s something that experts \Nwere never really banking on,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:21.84,0:05:23.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,despite public figures talking it up.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:23.52,0:05:27.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because this virus is just too good at \Nshifting into new forms for the defenses
Dialogue: 0,0:05:27.28,0:05:30.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we get from vaccines, or prior \Ninfection, to completely wall it off.\N
Dialogue: 0,0:05:30.88,0:05:33.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It’s different from, say, measles, \Nwhere vaccination is effective
Dialogue: 0,0:05:33.84,0:05:35.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at preventing disease in most people.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:35.52,0:05:38.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But vaccination will still be a valuable tool.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:38.24,0:05:42.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Expanding vaccination to as many people \Nas possible worldwide will give the virus
Dialogue: 0,0:05:42.48,0:05:46.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,fewer opportunities to mutate into new \Nvariants, as overall infections decline.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:46.64,0:05:50.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Plus, some scientists are using data \Nfrom all of the known previous variants
Dialogue: 0,0:05:50.72,0:05:53.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to try to build predictive models \Nof what might be around the corner.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:53.84,0:05:58.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A recent study in Science Translational \NMedicine looked at what mutations have helped
Dialogue: 0,0:05:58.48,0:06:01.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a particular virus variant spread in the past.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:01.04,0:06:04.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The researchers analyzed what features \Nof that mutation helped it spread,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:04.80,0:06:07.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and developed a computer model that they used to
Dialogue: 0,0:06:07.44,0:06:12.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,retroactively predict which mutations \Nhave spread up to four months in advance.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:12.80,0:06:15.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now they hope to use the model as a starting point
Dialogue: 0,0:06:15.20,0:06:17.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to help us prepare or screen for new variants.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:17.68,0:06:21.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So when it comes to Omicron, \Nwe’re not reliving March 2020.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:21.04,0:06:25.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But there are also still lots of unknowns, \Nand this is still a dangerous virus.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:25.60,0:06:27.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So stay safe, everybody.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:27.60,0:06:32.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And if that’s enough news for you for one day, \Nwhy not dive into the sweet refuge of pure math?
Dialogue: 0,0:06:32.40,0:06:36.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Brilliant’s math courses include their \Nnew-and-improved Geometry Fundamentals course.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:36.40,0:06:39.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It presents an intuitive, \Nsatisfying introduction to geometry,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:39.68,0:06:42.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with loads of interactive \Ncontent to keep you engaged.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:42.40,0:06:45.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Brilliant is always upping the \Ninteractivity of their courses.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:45.44,0:06:48.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We’ve been working with Brilliant \Nfor almost five years now
Dialogue: 0,0:06:48.16,0:06:50.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we get to see how they’re always improving.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:50.32,0:06:54.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you check them out, you’ll see how much work \Ngoes into helping you learn from their courses!
Dialogue: 0,0:06:54.48,0:06:57.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Even better, if you check them \Nout at Brilliant.org/SciShow,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:57.92,0:07:03.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you can sign up to get 20% off an annual \Npremium subscription to Brilliant. So thanks!
Dialogue: 0,0:07:03.11,0:07:13.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,[♪ OUTRO]