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This episode was filmed on January 19th, 2022.

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For up to date information [br]on the COVID-19 pandemic,

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check out our playlist linked in the description.

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[♪ INTRO]

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Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic we’ve [br]seen new variants of concern of SARS-CoV-2,

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the virus that causes COVID-19.

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The World Health Organization gives [br]names to new versions of the virus

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that it determines might have more of an [br]impact on people, say by spreading more easily,

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causing more severe disease, or being better [br]at getting around our body’s defenses.

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The latest variant making headlines is Omicron.

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It was first identified in late November of 2021.

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But as is always the case with this pandemic, [br]we’re still trying to learn about its effects,

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and what this new variant means for [br]the overall course of the pandemic.

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Here’s what we know right now.

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Omicron is spreading quickly, and many experts [br]predict it will overtake the Delta variant

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as the dominant variant of SARS-CoV-2 worldwide. [br]

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You or your loved ones might have already [br]been affected by it, given its rapid spread.

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Part of the reason for the rapid spread is [br]that this version of the virus appears to be

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more infectious, meaning more likely to spread [br]from person to person, than previous ones.

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For example, data from the UK and Denmark [br]suggest that Omicron is more likely than Delta

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to spread within a household, even in [br]cases where all members of that household

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had been vaccinated and received booster shots.

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The Danish study is a preprint, meaning [br]it has not been published or peer reviewed

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but has been uploaded to a pre-publication server.

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There’s no guarantee these preprints are correct,

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as they haven’t been through the [br]usual process of scientific scrutiny,

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but they are a way to share potentially [br]important information quickly.

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We’ll be talking about a few [br]other such studies today.

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With that out of the way, the reason for [br]the heightened infectiousness might be

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because Omicron is more adept at dodging the [br]antibody defenses that vaccines give us.

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Take one lab study, published in the journal [br]Cell, which looked at people who had been fully,

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recently vaccinated with either the [br]Moderna or Pfizer/BioNTech mRNA vaccines,

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or the Janssen viral vector vaccine.

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Half the people who had been [br]fully vaccinated, but not boosted,

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couldn’t mount an immune defense against Omicron.

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On top of that, preprint data out of [br]South Africa suggests previous infection

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with a different variant of the virus also [br]provides little immunity against Omicron.

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It also showed that people can [br]become infected more than once.

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However, other preprint data [br]suggest that the Janssen vaccine

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does provide protection against hospitalization, [br]so this one might need more time to untangle.

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Why? Well, most of these papers focused on [br]the neutralizing antibodies our immune system

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produces in response to a vaccine or the virus, [br]but that’s not all our immune system does.

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So the vaccines may be helping our immune [br]systems protect us from Omicron in other ways.

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Like the variants that came before [br]it, Omicron has a number of mutations

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compared to earlier versions, including [br]many that affect its spike protein.

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These may make it better at both infecting cells, [br]and avoiding antibodies that target the spike.

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It also seems to affect different parts [br]of the body compared to previous variants.

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Preprints from Hong Kong and the UK have [br]found that it’s up to 70 times better

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at replicating in the nose or upper airway than [br]Delta, which hangs out more in the lungs.

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More virus particles in the nose and throat [br]could mean it’s easier to sneeze or cough it out

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and help the virus spread.

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Hanging out in the upper airway could also be why

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this variant seems to cause less severe disease.

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This also may be why the reported symptoms [br]of Omicron are slightly different:

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more runny noses and sore [br]throats, and more ear aches,

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because everything is congested up here.

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Now, there seem to be fewer hospitalizations [br]around the world for Omicron than Delta,

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especially for vaccinated individuals.

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And when those hospitalizations do happen, [br]people tend to stay in the hospital for around

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70% less time regardless of vaccination status,

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according to one preprint [br]study out of California.

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Plus, a British report from December 2021 [br]found that the risk of being hospitalized

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because of an Omicron infection was [br]around a third of the risk for Delta.

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This was a pretty small study, though, so take [br]the numbers with a statistical grain of salt.

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But – and this is a big but – the number of [br]hospitalizations is going up. And quickly.

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There’s still going to be a subset [br]of people who become seriously ill,

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even if the variant is milder.

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So if case numbers are high, that still represents [br]a large overall number of people who will need

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hospital care, and who may develop the group [br]of long-term symptoms known as long COVID.

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The question on a lot of people’s [br]minds now is what Omicron means

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for the future of the pandemic.

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One of the big questions is [br]how the virus will evolve.

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As in, whether we’ll keep seeing not just new [br]variants, but new variants that are dangerous.

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Researchers have warned that as the virus [br]continues to spread around the world unchecked,

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that creates opportunities for new mutations [br]that might turn into a variant of concern.

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So slowing transmission is as [br]important as it’s ever been.

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Fortunately, we’re not back to square 1.

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We know far more about this [br]virus than we did in early 2020.

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We know that non-pharmaceutical public [br]health interventions like social distancing,

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limiting the number of people in enclosed spaces,

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and testing and tracing policies will [br]continue to play a role in our response.

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Some people have predicted that [br]COVID-19 will become an endemic disease.

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That is, one where the disease is [br]always present in the community

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and causing infections on some level.

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However, many other experts point out that that’s [br]not a good outcome, whether or not it’s likely.

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Seasonal flu is an example of an endemic disease

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that still comes with a [br]significant death toll every year.

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Endemism is also slightly different from herd [br]immunity, which you may have heard discussed.

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That’s where most people have immunity [br]and the disease can only spread

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within particular sub-populations [br]who aren’t immune.

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And that’s something that experts [br]were never really banking on,

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despite public figures talking it up.

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Because this virus is just too good at [br]shifting into new forms for the defenses

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we get from vaccines, or prior [br]infection, to completely wall it off.[br]

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It’s different from, say, measles, [br]where vaccination is effective

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at preventing disease in most people.

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But vaccination will still be a valuable tool.

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Expanding vaccination to as many people [br]as possible worldwide will give the virus

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fewer opportunities to mutate into new [br]variants, as overall infections decline.

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Plus, some scientists are using data [br]from all of the known previous variants

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to try to build predictive models [br]of what might be around the corner.

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A recent study in Science Translational [br]Medicine looked at what mutations have helped

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a particular virus variant spread in the past.

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The researchers analyzed what features [br]of that mutation helped it spread,

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and developed a computer model that they used to

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retroactively predict which mutations [br]have spread up to four months in advance.

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Now they hope to use the model as a starting point

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to help us prepare or screen for new variants.

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So when it comes to Omicron, [br]we’re not reliving March 2020.

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But there are also still lots of unknowns, [br]and this is still a dangerous virus.

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So stay safe, everybody.

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And if that’s enough news for you for one day, [br]why not dive into the sweet refuge of pure math?

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Brilliant’s math courses include their [br]new-and-improved Geometry Fundamentals course.

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It presents an intuitive, [br]satisfying introduction to geometry,

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with loads of interactive [br]content to keep you engaged.

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Brilliant is always upping the [br]interactivity of their courses.

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We’ve been working with Brilliant [br]for almost five years now

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and we get to see how they’re always improving.

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If you check them out, you’ll see how much work [br]goes into helping you learn from their courses!

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you can sign up to get 20% off an annual [br]premium subscription to Brilliant. So thanks!

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[♪ OUTRO]