[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:00.91,0:00:02.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Instructor] Adrianna gathered data
Dialogue: 0,0:00:02.25,0:00:04.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on different schools' winning percentages
Dialogue: 0,0:00:04.25,0:00:07.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the average yearly\Nsalary of their head coaches
Dialogue: 0,0:00:07.97,0:00:12.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in millions of dollars in\Nthe years 2000 to 2011.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:12.22,0:00:15.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,She then created the following\Nscatter plot and trend line.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:15.62,0:00:17.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So this is salary in millions of dollars
Dialogue: 0,0:00:17.60,0:00:19.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the winning percentage.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:19.94,0:00:24.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so here, we have a coach\Nwho made over $4 million,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:24.06,0:00:28.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and looks like they won\Nover 80% of their games.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:28.41,0:00:29.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But you have this coach over here
Dialogue: 0,0:00:29.83,0:00:31.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who has a salary of a little over
Dialogue: 0,0:00:31.31,0:00:32.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a million and a half dollars,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:32.82,0:00:35.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they are winning over 85%,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:35.45,0:00:38.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and so each of one of these data points
Dialogue: 0,0:00:38.12,0:00:39.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is a coach,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:39.58,0:00:41.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and is plotting their salary
Dialogue: 0,0:00:41.70,0:00:44.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or their winning percentage\Nagainst their salary.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:44.77,0:00:48.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Assuming the line correctly\Nshows the trend in the data,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:48.33,0:00:49.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it's a bit of an assumption,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:49.62,0:00:51.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there are some outliers here
Dialogue: 0,0:00:51.07,0:00:53.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that are well away from the model,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:53.51,0:00:54.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and this isn't a,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:54.68,0:00:55.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it looks like there's a linear,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:55.91,0:00:58.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a positive linear correlation here,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:58.05,0:00:59.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but it's not super tight
Dialogue: 0,0:00:59.58,0:01:01.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and there's a bunch of\Ncoaches right over here,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:01.12,0:01:03.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the lower salary area,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:03.78,0:01:05.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,going all the way from\N20 something percent
Dialogue: 0,0:01:05.88,0:01:07.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to over 60 percent.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:07.48,0:01:10.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Assuming the line correctly\Nshows the trend in the data,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:10.21,0:01:15.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what does it mean that the\Nline's y intercept is 39?
Dialogue: 0,0:01:15.17,0:01:16.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well if you believe the model,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:16.79,0:01:19.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then the y intercept of being 39
Dialogue: 0,0:01:19.78,0:01:22.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,would be the model is saying
Dialogue: 0,0:01:22.36,0:01:24.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that if someone makes no money,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:24.44,0:01:26.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that they could, zero dollars,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:26.58,0:01:28.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that they could win,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:28.05,0:01:31.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that the model would expect\Nthem to win 39% of their games,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:31.67,0:01:33.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which seems a little unrealistic,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:33.23,0:01:36.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because you would expect most\Ncoaches to get paid something.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:36.07,0:01:37.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But anyway, let's see\Nwhich of this choices
Dialogue: 0,0:01:37.76,0:01:40.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,actually describe that.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:40.32,0:01:42.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So let me look at the choices.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:42.98,0:01:46.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The average salary was\N39 million dollars, nope.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:46.12,0:01:48.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,No one on our chart made 39 million.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:48.11,0:01:50.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,On average, each million\Ndollar increase in salary
Dialogue: 0,0:01:50.35,0:01:52.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was associated with a 39%\Nincrease in winning percentage.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:52.76,0:01:56.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That would be something\Nrelated to the slope
Dialogue: 0,0:01:56.69,0:01:58.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the slope was definitely not 39.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:58.74,0:02:01.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The average winning percentage was 39%,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:01.35,0:02:02.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we know that wasn't the case either.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:02.69,0:02:05.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The model indicates\Nthat teams with coaches
Dialogue: 0,0:02:05.25,0:02:06.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who had a salary of zero millions dollars
Dialogue: 0,0:02:06.78,0:02:09.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,will average a winning\Npercentage of approximately 39%.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:09.97,0:02:12.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Yeah this is the closest statement
Dialogue: 0,0:02:12.72,0:02:14.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to what we just said,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:14.26,0:02:15.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that if you believe that model,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:15.74,0:02:17.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that's a big if,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:17.28,0:02:19.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if you believe this model,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:20.92,0:02:23.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then this model says\Nsomeone making zero dollars
Dialogue: 0,0:02:23.38,0:02:24.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,will get 39%,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:24.97,0:02:27.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and this is frankly why you\Nhave to be skeptical of models.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:27.45,0:02:28.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They're not going to be perfect,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:28.69,0:02:31.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,especially in extreme cases oftentimes,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:31.25,0:02:32.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but who knows.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:32.25,0:02:34.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Anyway, hopefully you found that useful.