WEBVTT

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問題的根源

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尤其是ˋ政府的問題

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是人口成長

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[音樂]

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因為它們面對主要

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關於氣候變遷的迷思

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主要迷思之一是氣候變遷

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是遙遠的問題，像太空那樣遠

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只關乎北極熊而不關人類的事

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時間很遙遠

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只會發生在未來世代，與當代人無關

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這個迷思不只是在

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那些不認為氣候變遷真實存在

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許多認同氣候變遷者視為

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「喔，就是我們

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以後再想辦法

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「不。我們正在面對

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不管你喜不喜歡

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讓我們給你看

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世界上正面臨問題的臉孔

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我們不是在講四、五十年前。

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喔，ˊ這將會是個問題。

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這就是個問題。

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所有系統

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農業及都市環境

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所有我們設定好的

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都基於預測

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氣候非常穩定

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而現在開始出現變化

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科學界正在看

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那對氣候的影響

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對人類的影響
對海平面的影響

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降雨量的影響

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將會影響糧食生產

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將會影響

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人們要住哪，對吧？

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有嚴重的影響

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將會影響生物多樣性

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而我認為這

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比海平面上升影響還大

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物種滅絕

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不幸ˋ，不是那些

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製造問題的人

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影響最大

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美國有最高

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平均通勤人口

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但是ˊ住在開發中

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國家或地區影響最大

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可憐的加勒ˋ比海人已受

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海水入侵、遇水災及海平面上升

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但他們沒有將溫室

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氣體排放至大氣中

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想像你在一個

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低海拔太平洋島上

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實際上海平面只要稍微上升

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就足以讓你的生活產生巨大影響

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加上

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漲潮或暴雨來襲

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然後，可想而知

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我們世上有些地區禁不起

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這些世界加總起來的破壞

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我們人類很脆弱

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禁不起相對小的海平面上升幅度

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有些國家如孟加拉

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荷蘭及所有

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位於南太平洋環礁

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會整個被摧毀

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只要海平面上升超過一公尺

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數百萬人

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將會流離失所

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根據海平面上升幅度低點預測

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若我們開始用高估值追蹤

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因為陸上冰層快速融化

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發生在格陵蘭及北極地區

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將會有更多

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人口流離失所

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海平面上升約一公尺

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意味可能會有

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高達兩千萬人流離失所

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很明顯推進

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緩慢氣候進程

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很多我們所打造的

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突然達到閾值

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而那些微的改變

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足以決定是否

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你的城市在後續幾週是否能住

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我認為熱帶

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最先目睹實質影響

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人類，因為住在下游

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冰川下游

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龐大人口住在下游

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所以，冰川所發生的事

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變得非常重要

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冰川的作用是

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基本上作為海綿

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所以，冬季時承受

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降雪

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然後釋放積雪

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於一年中的乾季

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一般而言是夏季

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所以冰川的功能傾向分配

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年降雨量

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就是讓該地能進行

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農業活動，如在夏季

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有些區域

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很乾燥

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如果你到祕魯等國

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地球七成熱帶冰川

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在祕魯安地斯山脈

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該國有三千四百萬人口

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逾五成住在沙漠

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位於祕魯西海岸，仰賴河流源自

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安地斯山脈上的冰川

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七成六電力

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來自水力發電

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水源來自冰川

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若你在西藏工作，

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那有四萬六千條冰川

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而你拿一條河如印度河

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它流經中國、巴基斯坦、

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及印度，皆屬

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核能國家。

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水源皆仰賴該河

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這些地方是地理政治熱點

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在未來

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我認為也許農業的影響最大，因為

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若你想到草原

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綿延洛磯山脈東部

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那大片地區滋養

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來自源於洛磯山脈的河流

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所以，你能想像如果試圖

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餵飽全球人

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有小麥等穀物，例如

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沒有高耐受性

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接受某個高閾值，那麼我們可能會陷入嚴重問題

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那些無法取得

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如空調等物

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或良好公共衛生建設

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你知道，如果遇上熱浪

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在那些地區

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人民會生病，長者

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通常遇到熱浪後容易重病

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若他們沒有公共設施

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來應對，那更多人

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會不幸喪命

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所以，當你看待衛生

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而看向發病率

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在熱浪來時會大幅上升

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其實，2003年歐洲

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有大約

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三到五千

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多出的死亡人數

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肇因於熱浪

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我在東非的幾項研究

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我們看到氣候變遷影響

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那些地方，非常可怕

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發生在當地人

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當瘧疾

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病媒蚊分布擴大，使當地人喪命

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對我這不是學術議題

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這是個深度倫理議題

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氣候變遷在極短期間

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代價大，但不是太大

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而當氣候變遷擴大

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當我們往更遠的未來看去

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代價更大。損失更多

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很粗略的算，每上升一度

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比上升前一度代價更大

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第一度幾乎就像雜訊

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我們習慣的那樣，代價不算太高

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但我們已經習慣

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而第二度代價稍高

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朝向經驗外

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開始造成壓力

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