1
00:00:00,030 --> 00:00:04,440


2
00:00:04,440 --> 00:00:07,165
問題的根源

3
00:00:07,165 --> 00:00:09,119
尤其是ˋ政府的問題

4
00:00:09,119 --> 00:00:10,650
是人口成長

5
00:00:12,330 --> 00:00:14,789
[音樂]

6
00:00:21,960 --> 00:00:23,780


7
00:00:23,780 --> 00:00:25,980
因為它們面對主要

8
00:00:25,980 --> 00:00:28,749
關於氣候變遷的迷思

9
00:00:28,749 --> 00:00:30,889
主要迷思之一是氣候變遷

10
00:00:30,889 --> 00:00:33,270
是遙遠的問題，像太空那樣遠

11
00:00:33,270 --> 00:00:35,700
只關乎北極熊而不關人類的事

12
00:00:35,700 --> 00:00:36,980
時間很遙遠

13
00:00:36,980 --> 00:00:39,309
只會發生在未來世代，與當代人無關

14
00:00:39,309 --> 00:00:41,056
這個迷思不只是在

15
00:00:41,056 --> 00:00:43,250
那些不認為氣候變遷真實存在

16
00:00:43,250 --> 00:00:44,990
許多認同氣候變遷者視為

17
00:00:44,990 --> 00:00:46,410
「喔，就是我們

18
00:00:46,410 --> 00:00:47,994
以後再想辦法

19
00:00:47,994 --> 00:00:49,849


20
00:00:49,849 --> 00:00:51,149
「不。我們正在面對

21
00:00:51,149 --> 00:00:53,040
不管你喜不喜歡

22
00:00:53,040 --> 00:00:54,900
讓我們給你看

23
00:00:54,900 --> 00:00:57,289
世界上正面臨問題的臉孔

24
00:00:57,289 --> 00:01:00,209
我們不是在講四、五十年前。

25
00:01:00,209 --> 00:01:01,809
喔，ˊ這將會是個問題。

26
00:01:01,809 --> 00:01:02,879
這就是個問題。

27
00:01:02,879 --> 00:01:04,789
所有系統

28
00:01:04,789 --> 00:01:06,909
農業及都市環境

29
00:01:06,909 --> 00:01:08,500
所有我們設定好的

30
00:01:08,500 --> 00:01:11,070
都基於預測

31
00:01:11,070 --> 00:01:14,310
氣候非常穩定

32
00:01:14,310 --> 00:01:16,289
而現在開始出現變化

33
00:01:16,289 --> 00:01:20,030


34
00:01:20,030 --> 00:01:21,490
科學界正在看

35
00:01:21,490 --> 00:01:23,670
那對氣候的影響

36
00:01:23,670 --> 00:01:26,070
對人類的影響
對海平面的影響

37
00:01:26,070 --> 00:01:27,450
降雨量的影響

38
00:01:27,450 --> 00:01:29,799
將會影響糧食生產

39
00:01:29,799 --> 00:01:31,363
將會影響

40
00:01:31,363 --> 00:01:32,669
人們要住哪，對吧？

41
00:01:32,669 --> 00:01:34,310
有嚴重的影響

42
00:01:34,310 --> 00:01:36,559
將會影響生物多樣性

43
00:01:36,559 --> 00:01:38,021
而我認為這

44
00:01:38,021 --> 00:01:39,440
比海平面上升影響還大

45
00:01:39,440 --> 00:01:40,450
物種滅絕

46
00:01:40,880 --> 00:01:43,380
不幸ˋ，不是那些

47
00:01:43,380 --> 00:01:44,990
製造問題的人

48
00:01:44,990 --> 00:01:46,730
影響最大

49
00:01:46,810 --> 00:01:49,320
美國有最高

50
00:01:49,320 --> 00:01:50,650
平均通勤人口

51
00:01:51,110 --> 00:01:53,040
但是ˊ住在開發中

52
00:01:53,040 --> 00:01:55,634
國家或地區影響最大

53
00:01:56,250 --> 00:01:58,320
可憐的加勒ˋ比海人已受

54
00:01:58,320 --> 00:02:01,340
海水入侵、遇水災及海平面上升

55
00:02:01,340 --> 00:02:03,240
但他們沒有將溫室

56
00:02:03,240 --> 00:02:05,283
氣體排放至大氣中

57
00:02:05,283 --> 00:02:07,330
想像你在一個

58
00:02:07,330 --> 00:02:08,800
低海拔太平洋島上

59
00:02:08,800 --> 00:02:10,869
實際上海平面只要稍微上升

60
00:02:10,869 --> 00:02:14,648
就足以讓你的生活產生巨大影響

61
00:02:14,648 --> 00:02:16,307
加上

62
00:02:16,307 --> 00:02:18,699
漲潮或暴雨來襲

63
00:02:18,699 --> 00:02:19,984
然後，可想而知

64
00:02:19,984 --> 00:02:23,410
我們世上有些地區禁不起

65
00:02:23,410 --> 00:02:25,690
這些世界加總起來的破壞

66
00:02:25,690 --> 00:02:28,170
我們人類很脆弱

67
00:02:28,740 --> 00:02:32,163
禁不起相對小的海平面上升幅度

68
00:02:32,163 --> 00:02:34,240
有些國家如孟加拉

69
00:02:34,240 --> 00:02:37,050
荷蘭及所有

70
00:02:37,050 --> 00:02:38,490
位於南太平洋環礁

71
00:02:38,490 --> 00:02:40,837
會整個被摧毀

72
00:02:41,807 --> 00:02:44,290
只要海平面上升超過一公尺

73
00:02:44,740 --> 00:02:46,970
數百萬人

74
00:02:47,269 --> 00:02:49,264
將會流離失所

75
00:02:49,264 --> 00:02:51,429
根據海平面上升幅度低點預測

76
00:02:51,709 --> 00:02:53,542
若我們開始用高估值追蹤

77
00:02:53,542 --> 00:02:57,220
因為陸上冰層快速融化

78
00:02:57,220 --> 00:02:59,559
發生在格陵蘭及北極地區

79
00:02:59,559 --> 00:03:01,969
將會有更多

80
00:03:01,969 --> 00:03:04,320
人口流離失所

81
00:03:04,320 --> 00:03:06,429
海平面上升約一公尺

82
00:03:07,139 --> 00:03:10,919
意味可能會有

83
00:03:10,919 --> 00:03:13,289
高達兩千萬人流離失所

84
00:03:13,509 --> 00:03:15,630
很明顯推進

85
00:03:15,630 --> 00:03:17,751
緩慢氣候進程

86
00:03:18,149 --> 00:03:20,330
很多我們所打造的

87
00:03:20,729 --> 00:03:22,169
突然達到閾值

88
00:03:23,009 --> 00:03:26,343


89
00:03:26,343 --> 00:03:28,332


90
00:03:28,332 --> 00:03:30,716


91
00:03:31,319 --> 00:03:32,799


92
00:03:32,979 --> 00:03:35,234
而那些微的改變

93
00:03:35,234 --> 00:03:37,210
足以決定是否

94
00:03:37,210 --> 00:03:39,609
你的城市在後續幾週是否能住

95
00:03:39,749 --> 00:03:42,076
我認為熱帶

96
00:03:42,076 --> 00:03:45,244
最先目睹實質影響

97
00:03:45,244 --> 00:03:48,664
人類，因為住在下游

98
00:03:48,664 --> 00:03:51,020
冰川下游

99
00:03:51,020 --> 00:03:53,322
龐大人口住在下游

100
00:03:53,772 --> 00:03:56,046
所以，冰川所發生的事

101
00:03:56,046 --> 00:03:57,407
變得非常重要

102
00:03:57,810 --> 00:03:58,835
冰川的作用是

103
00:03:58,835 --> 00:04:00,330
基本上作為海綿

104
00:04:00,330 --> 00:04:01,938
所以，冬季時承受

105
00:04:01,938 --> 00:04:03,547
降雪

106
00:04:03,960 --> 00:04:05,550
然後釋放積雪

107
00:04:05,550 --> 00:04:06,939
於一年中的乾季

108
00:04:06,939 --> 00:04:08,409
一般而言是夏季

109
00:04:08,409 --> 00:04:10,304
所以冰川的功能傾向分配

110
00:04:10,304 --> 00:04:12,570
年降雨量

111
00:04:12,570 --> 00:04:16,665
就是讓該地能進行

112
00:04:16,665 --> 00:04:18,950
農業活動，如在夏季

113
00:04:18,950 --> 00:04:20,440
有些區域

114
00:04:20,440 --> 00:04:21,679
很乾燥

115
00:04:21,679 --> 00:04:23,349
如果你到祕魯等國

116
00:04:23,349 --> 00:04:25,830
地球七成熱帶冰川

117
00:04:25,830 --> 00:04:28,501
在祕魯安地斯山脈

118
00:04:28,501 --> 00:04:31,199
該國有三千四百萬人口

119
00:04:31,619 --> 00:04:33,590
逾五成住在沙漠

120
00:04:33,590 --> 00:04:36,920
位於祕魯西海岸，仰賴河流源自

121
00:04:36,920 --> 00:04:39,168
安地斯山脈上的冰川

122
00:04:41,228 --> 00:04:43,780
七成六電力

123
00:04:43,780 --> 00:04:45,234
來自水力發電

124
00:04:45,664 --> 00:04:47,969
水源來自冰川

125
00:04:47,969 --> 00:04:49,980
若你在西藏工作，

126
00:04:49,980 --> 00:04:51,760
那有四萬六千條冰川

127
00:04:52,160 --> 00:04:54,220
而你拿一條河如印度河

128
00:04:54,220 --> 00:04:57,533
它流經中國、巴基斯坦、

129
00:04:57,533 --> 00:04:59,553
及印度，皆屬

130
00:04:59,553 --> 00:05:01,273
核能國家。

131
00:05:01,800 --> 00:05:04,679
水源皆仰賴該河

132
00:05:05,399 --> 00:05:08,480
這些地方是地理政治熱點

133
00:05:08,480 --> 00:05:09,877
在未來

134
00:05:10,210 --> 00:05:13,591
我認為也許農業的影響最大，因為

135
00:05:14,080 --> 00:05:16,587
若你想到草原

136
00:05:16,587 --> 00:05:17,990
綿延洛磯山脈東部

137
00:05:17,990 --> 00:05:19,370
那大片地區滋養

138
00:05:19,370 --> 00:05:21,222
來自源於洛磯山脈的河流

139
00:05:21,222 --> 00:05:23,110
所以，你能想像如果試圖

140
00:05:23,110 --> 00:05:26,878
餵飽全球人

141
00:05:27,388 --> 00:05:29,381
有小麥等穀物，例如

142
00:05:29,381 --> 00:05:33,181
沒有高耐受性

143
00:05:33,181 --> 00:05:37,006
接受某個高閾值，那麼我們可能會陷入嚴重問題

144
00:05:37,006 --> 00:05:40,450
那些無法取得

145
00:05:40,450 --> 00:05:42,040
如空調等物

146
00:05:42,040 --> 00:05:43,810
或良好公共衛生建設

147
00:05:43,810 --> 00:05:45,370
你知道，如果遇上熱浪

148
00:05:45,370 --> 00:05:46,500
在那些地區

149
00:05:46,500 --> 00:05:48,010
人民會生病，長者

150
00:05:48,010 --> 00:05:49,840
通常遇到熱浪後容易重病

151
00:05:49,840 --> 00:05:51,310
若他們沒有公共設施

152
00:05:51,310 --> 00:05:52,840
來應對，那更多人

153
00:05:52,840 --> 00:05:54,476
會不幸喪命

154
00:05:54,476 --> 00:05:55,760
所以，當你看待衛生

155
00:05:55,760 --> 00:05:58,080
而看向發病率

156
00:05:58,080 --> 00:06:01,549
在熱浪來時會大幅上升

157
00:06:01,549 --> 00:06:05,449
其實，2003年歐洲

158
00:06:05,449 --> 00:06:06,560
有大約

159
00:06:06,560 --> 00:06:08,150
三到五千

160
00:06:08,150 --> 00:06:09,830
多出的死亡人數

161
00:06:09,830 --> 00:06:11,510
肇因於熱浪

162
00:06:11,910 --> 00:06:13,765
我在東非的幾項研究

163
00:06:13,765 --> 00:06:15,976
我們看到氣候變遷影響

164
00:06:15,976 --> 00:06:18,113
那些地方，非常可怕

165
00:06:18,113 --> 00:06:20,584
發生在當地人

166
00:06:20,584 --> 00:06:22,584
當瘧疾

167
00:06:22,584 --> 00:06:26,080
病媒蚊分布擴大，使當地人喪命

168
00:06:26,080 --> 00:06:28,930
對我這不是學術議題

169
00:06:28,930 --> 00:06:31,411
這是個深度倫理議題

170
00:06:32,054 --> 00:06:34,414
氣候變遷在極短期間

171
00:06:34,414 --> 00:06:37,458
代價大，但不是太大

172
00:06:37,458 --> 00:06:40,494
而當氣候變遷擴大

173
00:06:40,494 --> 00:06:42,644
當我們往更遠的未來看去

174
00:06:42,644 --> 00:06:45,692
代價更大。損失更多

175
00:06:46,393 --> 00:06:49,063
很粗略的算，每上升一度

176
00:06:49,063 --> 00:06:51,453
比上升前一度代價更大

177
00:06:51,883 --> 00:06:54,494
第一度幾乎就像雜訊

178
00:06:54,494 --> 00:06:57,763
我們習慣的那樣，代價不算太高

179
00:06:57,763 --> 00:06:59,335
但我們已經習慣

180
00:06:59,574 --> 00:07:01,384
而第二度代價稍高

181
00:07:01,384 --> 00:07:03,104
朝向經驗外

182
00:07:03,104 --> 00:07:05,799
開始造成壓力

183
00:07:05,799 --> 00:07:09,828


184
00:07:09,828 --> 00:07:11,879


185
00:07:11,879 --> 00:07:13,526


186
00:07:13,526 --> 00:07:16,430


187
00:07:16,430 --> 00:07:19,139


188
00:07:19,139 --> 00:07:20,899


189
00:07:20,899 --> 00:07:22,850


190
00:07:22,850 --> 00:07:25,900


191
00:07:25,900 --> 00:07:28,490


192
00:07:28,490 --> 00:07:30,640


193
00:07:30,640 --> 00:07:32,530


194
00:07:32,530 --> 00:07:35,612


195
00:07:35,612 --> 00:07:38,050


196
00:07:38,050 --> 00:07:40,199


197
00:07:40,199 --> 00:07:41,990


198
00:07:41,990 --> 00:07:43,180


199
00:07:43,180 --> 00:07:45,020


200
00:07:45,020 --> 00:07:46,226


201
00:07:46,226 --> 00:07:47,786


202
00:07:47,786 --> 00:07:49,314


203
00:07:49,314 --> 00:07:51,857


204
00:07:51,857 --> 00:07:53,577


205
00:07:53,577 --> 00:07:55,317


206
00:07:55,317 --> 00:07:57,767


207
00:07:57,767 --> 00:08:02,050


208
00:08:02,050 --> 00:08:05,673


209
00:08:05,673 --> 00:08:07,481


210
00:08:07,481 --> 00:08:08,580


211
00:08:08,580 --> 00:08:10,659


212
00:08:10,659 --> 00:08:12,960


213
00:08:12,960 --> 00:08:14,700


214
00:08:14,700 --> 00:08:17,357


215
00:08:17,357 --> 00:08:19,279


216
00:08:19,279 --> 00:08:21,140


217
00:08:21,140 --> 00:08:22,940


218
00:08:22,940 --> 00:08:25,730


219
00:08:25,730 --> 00:08:29,537


220
00:08:29,537 --> 00:08:30,840


221
00:08:30,840 --> 00:08:32,370


222
00:08:32,370 --> 00:08:34,490


223
00:08:34,490 --> 00:08:38,590