0:00:00.030,0:00:04.440
I have no doubt that the fundamental

0:00:04.440,0:00:07.165
source of all our problems,

0:00:07.165,0:00:09.119
particularly our governmental problems,

0:00:09.119,0:00:10.650
is population growth.

0:00:12.330,0:00:14.789
[music]

0:00:21.960,0:00:23.780
I love the years of living dangerously

0:00:23.780,0:00:25.980
because they tackled one of the main

0:00:25.980,0:00:28.749
myths about climate change head-on.

0:00:28.749,0:00:30.889
One of the main myths is [br]that climate change

0:00:30.889,0:00:33.270
is a distant issue. [br]It's distant in space;

0:00:33.270,0:00:35.700
it's only about the polar bear, [br]and not about us,

0:00:35.700,0:00:36.980
and it's distant in time;

0:00:36.980,0:00:39.309
it's only about future generations, [br]not about us.

0:00:39.309,0:00:41.056
This is a myth that isn't just among

0:00:41.056,0:00:43.250
people who don't think [br]climate change is real.

0:00:43.250,0:00:44.990
Even many people who do view it as

0:00:44.990,0:00:46.410
"Oh it's just you know we'll

0:00:46.410,0:00:47.994
deal with it in the future."

0:00:47.994,0:00:49.849
The years of living dangerously said,

0:00:49.849,0:00:51.149
"No. We are dealing with

0:00:51.149,0:00:53.040
[br]it right now whether you like it or not

0:00:53.040,0:00:54.900
and let us show you the faces of the

0:00:54.900,0:00:57.289
people around the world [br]who are dealing with it."

0:00:57.289,0:01:00.209
So we're not talking like we were [br]50 years ago, 40 years ago.

0:01:00.209,0:01:01.809
Oh, like this will be a problem.

0:01:01.809,0:01:02.879
It is a problem.

0:01:02.879,0:01:04.789
All the systems we have in place:

0:01:04.789,0:01:06.909
agriculture, urban environment.

0:01:06.909,0:01:08.500
Everything we've set up

0:01:08.500,0:01:11.070
has all been predicated on

0:01:11.070,0:01:14.310
this very, very stable climate, which

0:01:14.310,0:01:16.289
we're now starting to tinker with,

0:01:16.289,0:01:20.030
you know, fiddle with the dials[br]in an uncontrolled way.

0:01:20.030,0:01:21.490
The science is looking

0:01:21.490,0:01:23.670
at the impact of that on the climate,

0:01:23.670,0:01:26.070
the impact on humans, [br]the impact on sea level,

0:01:26.070,0:01:27.450
the impact on precipitation.

0:01:27.450,0:01:29.799
It's gonna be the impact [br]on food production.

0:01:29.799,0:01:31.363
It's gonna be the impact of

0:01:31.363,0:01:32.669
where people live, right?

0:01:32.669,0:01:34.310
There is a pretty serious impact.

0:01:34.310,0:01:36.559
There's gonna be an [br]impact on biodiversity

0:01:36.559,0:01:38.021
which, in my opinion has been

0:01:38.021,0:01:39.440
bigger than sea level rise, right.

0:01:39.440,0:01:40.450
The decay of species.

0:01:40.880,0:01:43.380
Unfortunately, it's not the people who are

0:01:43.380,0:01:44.990
causing the problems that will be

0:01:44.990,0:01:46.730
most affected, so, you know,

0:01:46.810,0:01:49.320
American has the highest

0:01:49.320,0:01:50.650
commuters per capita.

0:01:51.110,0:01:53.040
But it's the people in the developing

0:01:53.040,0:01:55.634
natures- regions that will be [br]affected most.

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So poor old [Curabeth] is already having

0:01:58.320,0:02:01.340
saltwater intrusion, inundation,[br]and sea level rise.

0:02:01.340,0:02:03.240
And they're not putting any greenhouse

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gas emissions into the atmosphere.

0:02:05.283,0:02:07.330
You can imagine that if you're on a

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low line pacific island,

0:02:08.800,0:02:10.869
well actually a small amount of sea level

0:02:10.869,0:02:14.648
makes a massive difference [br]to your livelihood.

0:02:14.648,0:02:16.307
Ah, combine that with, you know,

0:02:16.307,0:02:18.699
a high tide or a storm surge

0:02:18.699,0:02:19.984
and then, you know, we get

0:02:19.984,0:02:23.410
regions of the world [br]that are very vulnerable

0:02:23.410,0:02:25.690
to these kind of combined events.

0:02:25.690,0:02:28.170
We are very, very vulnerable as a species

0:02:28.740,0:02:32.163
to relatively small changes in sea level.

0:02:32.163,0:02:34.240
There are countries like Bangladesh,

0:02:34.240,0:02:37.050
the Netherlands, and all the Atolls

0:02:37.050,0:02:38.490
in the South Pacific,

0:02:38.490,0:02:40.837
which would be absolutely devastated

0:02:41.807,0:02:44.290
from a sea level rise of [br]more than a meter.

0:02:44.740,0:02:46.970
Millions and millions of people

0:02:47.269,0:02:49.264
are set to be displaced with our

0:02:49.264,0:02:51.429
low-end projections of sea level rise.

0:02:51.709,0:02:53.542
If we start tracking at higher ends

0:02:53.542,0:02:57.220
because of these rapid melting [br]of the land ice

0:02:57.220,0:02:59.559
over the Greenland and Antarctic regions,

0:02:59.559,0:03:01.969
you could have, you know, even more

0:03:01.969,0:03:04.320
rapid displacement of populations.

0:03:04.320,0:03:06.429
The sea-level rise around about a meter

0:03:07.139,0:03:10.919
it's suggested would displace potentially

0:03:10.919,0:03:13.289
up to two hundred million people.

0:03:13.509,0:03:15.630
It's very clear that if you push

0:03:15.630,0:03:17.751
slowly on the climate,

0:03:18.149,0:03:20.330
a lot of the things that we have built

0:03:20.729,0:03:22.169
hit sudden thresholds.

0:03:23.009,0:03:26.343
Either the city is hiding behind the levy

0:03:26.343,0:03:28.332
and the water stays just below

0:03:28.332,0:03:30.716
the levy during the storm,

0:03:31.319,0:03:32.799
or just above.

0:03:32.979,0:03:35.234
And that little change

0:03:35.234,0:03:37.210
can make a huge difference to whether

0:03:37.210,0:03:39.609
your city is livable or not [br]the next few weeks.

0:03:39.749,0:03:42.076
I think in the tropics, there's where

0:03:42.076,0:03:45.244
you're going to see the first real impacts

0:03:45.244,0:03:48.664
on people, because the people [br]are living right downstream

0:03:48.664,0:03:51.020
below the glaciers, and there are

0:03:51.020,0:03:53.322
large numbers of people [br]living downstream.

0:03:53.772,0:03:56.046
So, what's happening to those glaciers

0:03:56.046,0:03:57.407
becomes extremely important.

0:03:57.810,0:03:58.835
What glaciers do is

0:03:58.835,0:04:00.330
they act as sponges basically.

0:04:00.330,0:04:01.938
So, in the winter they hold that

0:04:01.938,0:04:03.547
snow that falls,

0:04:03.960,0:04:05.550
and then they release that snow

0:04:05.550,0:04:06.939
in the dry time of the year,

0:04:06.939,0:04:08.409
which is typically the summer.

0:04:08.409,0:04:10.304
So what glaciers do is [br]they tend to even out

0:04:10.304,0:04:12.570
the annual precipitation that falls,

0:04:12.570,0:04:16.665
and essentially allow areas to carry on

0:04:16.665,0:04:18.950
to have agriculture, for example, [br]in the summer

0:04:18.950,0:04:20.440
when otherwise there'd be areas

0:04:20.440,0:04:21.679
that are very, very dry.

0:04:21.679,0:04:23.349
If you go to a country like Peru,

0:04:23.349,0:04:25.830
seventy percent of the tropical glaciers

0:04:25.830,0:04:28.501
on Earth are in Peru,[br]in the Andes of Peru.

0:04:28.501,0:04:31.199
Here you have a country of thirty-four[br]million people.

0:04:31.619,0:04:33.590
Over fifty percent live in the desert

0:04:33.590,0:04:36.920
on the West coast of Peru, depending on[br]rivers that originate

0:04:36.920,0:04:39.168
in the glaciers up in the Andes.

0:04:41.228,0:04:43.780
Seventy-six percent of their electricity

0:04:43.780,0:04:45.234
comes from hydropower,

0:04:45.664,0:04:47.969
the water coming from those glaciers.

0:04:47.969,0:04:49.980
If you're working in Tibet, there are

0:04:49.980,0:04:51.760
forty-six thousand glaciers there.

0:04:52.160,0:04:54.220
And you take a river like the Indus river,

0:04:54.220,0:04:57.533
it flows through China, through Pakistan,

0:04:57.533,0:04:59.553
and through India, all are

0:04:59.553,0:05:01.273
nuclear power countries.

0:05:01.800,0:05:04.679
All depend on that river for [br]its water supplies.

0:05:05.399,0:05:08.480
So these are places, geopolitical hotspots

0:05:08.480,0:05:09.877
in the future.

0:05:10.210,0:05:13.591
I think perhaps the biggest impact is[br]on agriculture, because the-

0:05:14.080,0:05:16.587
if you think of the prairies that

0:05:16.587,0:05:17.990
stretch East of the Rockies,

0:05:17.990,0:05:19.370
those huge areas are fed by

0:05:19.370,0:05:21.222
the rivers that flow from the Rockies.

0:05:21.222,0:05:23.110
So you can imagine that if we're trying

0:05:23.110,0:05:26.878
to feed a global population, and there are

0:05:27.388,0:05:29.381
crops like wheat, for example,

0:05:29.381,0:05:33.181
which don't have a high tolerance to

0:05:33.181,0:05:37.006
certain high thresholds,[br]then we could be in serious trouble.

0:05:37.006,0:05:40.450
Those that don't have access

0:05:40.450,0:05:42.040
to things like air conditioning

0:05:42.040,0:05:43.810
or good public health infrastructure.

0:05:43.810,0:05:45.370
You know, if you get a heat wave

0:05:45.370,0:05:46.500
in those sorts of areas

0:05:46.500,0:05:48.010
people get sick, or the elderly

0:05:48.010,0:05:49.840
generally get really sick after[br]a heat wave.

0:05:49.840,0:05:51.310
If they don't have[br]the public infrastructure

0:05:51.310,0:05:52.840
to cope with that more people will

0:05:52.840,0:05:54.476
unfortunately, be killed.

0:05:54.476,0:05:55.760
So when you look at health,

0:05:55.760,0:05:58.080
and you look at morbidity [br]and mortality rates,

0:05:58.080,0:06:01.549
they increase substantially during[br]heat wave events,

0:06:01.549,0:06:05.449
and, in fact, Europe in 2003 there was

0:06:05.449,0:06:06.560
somewhere around about

0:06:06.560,0:06:08.150
thirty thousand to fifty thousand

0:06:08.150,0:06:09.830
excess deaths

0:06:09.830,0:06:11.510
due to the heat wave.

0:06:11.910,0:06:13.765
Some of my research is in East Africa.

0:06:13.765,0:06:15.976
We are seeing climate change impacts

0:06:15.976,0:06:18.113
in those places, and they're scary.

0:06:18.113,0:06:20.584
You see what happens to people

0:06:20.584,0:06:22.584
when the distributions of malaria carrying

0:06:22.584,0:06:26.080
mosquitoes expands. It kills them.

0:06:26.080,0:06:28.930
It's not an academic issue for me.

0:06:28.930,0:06:31.411
This is a deeply ethically based issue.

0:06:32.054,0:06:34.414
Climate change in the really short term

0:06:34.414,0:06:37.458
is expensive, but not hugely so.

0:06:37.458,0:06:40.494
And as the climate change gets bigger,

0:06:40.494,0:06:42.644
as we look farther into the future,

0:06:42.644,0:06:45.692
the price goes up. The damages go up.

0:06:46.393,0:06:49.063
Very crudely, each degree of warming

0:06:49.063,0:06:51.453
costs more than the previous degree.

0:06:51.883,0:06:54.494
The first degree was almost in the noise

0:06:54.494,0:06:57.763
of what we were used to; [br]it's not very expensive.

0:06:57.763,0:06:59.335
But we've used that one.

0:06:59.574,0:07:01.384
And the second degree will cost

0:07:01.384,0:07:03.104
a little more. It's moving outside

0:07:03.104,0:07:05.799
of your experience, it's starting to[br]stress things,

0:07:05.799,0:07:09.828
and we've committed to that one[br]very broadly.

0:07:09.828,0:07:11.879
The third degree costs more[br]than the second.

0:07:11.879,0:07:13.526
And by the fourth, and the fifth,

0:07:13.526,0:07:16.430
now, sea level rise is going to get huge.

0:07:16.430,0:07:19.139
We have real problems with crops,

0:07:19.139,0:07:20.899
which may be bumping up against

0:07:20.899,0:07:22.850
biochemical limits and the ability to

0:07:22.850,0:07:25.900
feed ourselves gets [br]a little bit worrisome.

0:07:25.900,0:07:28.490
And so, by the time you start running

0:07:28.490,0:07:30.640
to the third, the fourth, [br]the fifth degree,

0:07:30.640,0:07:32.530
the cost of damages, the dangers,

0:07:32.530,0:07:35.612
go way up. But we're arguing now

0:07:35.612,0:07:38.050
about the third degree, [br]because we've basically-

0:07:38.050,0:07:40.199
We've warmed almost all of the first one,

0:07:40.199,0:07:41.990
and we really have committed

0:07:41.990,0:07:43.180
to the second one.

0:07:43.180,0:07:45.020
There are consequences in terms

0:07:45.020,0:07:46.226
of human life for this.

0:07:46.226,0:07:47.786
There are consequences in terms

0:07:47.786,0:07:49.314
of extinction rates for this.

0:07:49.314,0:07:51.857
There are consequences in terms[br]of ecosystem services.

0:07:51.857,0:07:53.577
Every single day that goes by

0:07:53.577,0:07:55.317
that we don't begin to address these

0:07:55.317,0:07:57.767
problems, the problem gets worse,

0:07:57.767,0:08:02.050
more expensive, more immediate,

0:08:02.050,0:08:05.673
and in some parts of [br]the world has a toll in

0:08:05.673,0:08:07.481
in terms of people dying.

0:08:07.481,0:08:08.580
And for me this is

0:08:08.580,0:08:10.659
just, like, fundamental. [br]We don't have time

0:08:10.659,0:08:12.960
to muck about with this.

0:08:12.960,0:08:14.700
This is not an ivory tower argument.

0:08:14.700,0:08:17.357
This is one where [br]the consequences are real.

0:08:17.357,0:08:19.279
We have to really try[br]and wake people up

0:08:19.279,0:08:21.140
to realize that this is happening,

0:08:21.140,0:08:22.940
it's very, very serious, but we

0:08:22.940,0:08:25.730
can solve it. But we have to do so

0:08:25.730,0:08:29.537
not because, you know, it's gonna[br]cut the economy,

0:08:29.537,0:08:30.840
but because it's the planet

0:08:30.840,0:08:32.370
we live on, and it's the people

0:08:32.370,0:08:34.490
that we love that are going to be affect-

0:08:34.490,0:08:38.590
[music]