1 00:00:00,493 --> 00:00:02,991 When the Industrial Revolution started, 2 00:00:03,015 --> 00:00:07,073 the amount of carbon sitting underneath Britain in the form of coal 3 00:00:07,908 --> 00:00:11,083 was as big as the amount of carbon sitting under Saudi Arabia 4 00:00:11,107 --> 00:00:12,445 in the form of oil. 5 00:00:13,431 --> 00:00:15,966 This carbon powered the Industrial Revolution, 6 00:00:15,990 --> 00:00:17,705 it put the "Great" in Great Britain, 7 00:00:17,729 --> 00:00:21,013 and led to Britain's temporary world domination. 8 00:00:22,085 --> 00:00:26,506 And then, in 1918, coal production in Britain peaked, 9 00:00:26,530 --> 00:00:28,297 and has declined ever since. 10 00:00:29,003 --> 00:00:33,056 In due course, Britain started using oil and gas from the North Sea, 11 00:00:33,080 --> 00:00:34,991 and in the year 2000, 12 00:00:35,015 --> 00:00:38,514 oil and gas production from the North Sea also peaked, 13 00:00:38,538 --> 00:00:40,684 and they're now on the decline. 14 00:00:42,136 --> 00:00:44,799 These observations about the finiteness 15 00:00:44,823 --> 00:00:48,690 of easily accessible, local, secure fossil fuels, 16 00:00:49,427 --> 00:00:52,377 is a motivation for saying, "Well, what's next? 17 00:00:52,738 --> 00:00:55,324 What is life after fossil fuels going to be like? 18 00:00:55,348 --> 00:00:58,814 Shouldn't we be thinking hard about how to get off fossil fuels?" 19 00:00:58,838 --> 00:01:01,802 Another motivation, of course, is climate change. 20 00:01:02,314 --> 00:01:04,815 And when people talk about life after fossil fuels 21 00:01:04,839 --> 00:01:06,710 and climate change action, 22 00:01:06,850 --> 00:01:09,280 I think there's a lot of fluff, 23 00:01:09,304 --> 00:01:12,168 a lot of greenwash, a lot of misleading advertising, 24 00:01:12,192 --> 00:01:16,681 and I feel a duty as a physicist to try to guide people around the claptrap 25 00:01:16,705 --> 00:01:20,479 and help people understand the actions that really make a difference, 26 00:01:20,503 --> 00:01:23,153 and to focus on ideas that do add up. 27 00:01:25,010 --> 00:01:26,589 Let me illustrate this 28 00:01:26,613 --> 00:01:29,796 with what physicists call a back-of-envelope calculation. 29 00:01:30,228 --> 00:01:32,073 We love back-of-envelope calculations. 30 00:01:32,097 --> 00:01:34,168 You ask a question, write down some numbers, 31 00:01:34,192 --> 00:01:35,355 and get an answer. 32 00:01:35,379 --> 00:01:38,579 It may not be very accurate, but it may make you say, "Hmm." 33 00:01:38,603 --> 00:01:40,025 So here's a question: 34 00:01:40,049 --> 00:01:43,252 Imagine if we said, "Oh yes, we can get off fossil fuels. 35 00:01:43,276 --> 00:01:44,944 We'll use biofuels. Problem solved. 36 00:01:44,968 --> 00:01:47,248 Transport ... We don't need oil anymore." 37 00:01:47,272 --> 00:01:53,706 Well, what if we grew the biofuels for a road 38 00:01:53,730 --> 00:01:56,504 on the grass verge at the edge of the road? 39 00:01:57,274 --> 00:02:01,487 How wide would the verge have to be for that to work out? 40 00:02:01,511 --> 00:02:03,159 OK, so let's put in some numbers. 41 00:02:03,183 --> 00:02:05,893 Let's have our cars go at 60 miles per hour. 42 00:02:05,917 --> 00:02:07,727 Let's say they do 30 miles per gallon. 43 00:02:07,751 --> 00:02:10,586 That's the European average for new cars. 44 00:02:10,939 --> 00:02:13,263 Let's say the productivity of biofuel plantations 45 00:02:13,287 --> 00:02:16,387 is 1,200 liters of biofuel per hectare per year. 46 00:02:16,411 --> 00:02:18,982 That's true of European biofuels. 47 00:02:19,351 --> 00:02:22,891 And let's imagine the cars are spaced 80 meters apart from each other, 48 00:02:22,915 --> 00:02:25,091 and they're perpetually going along this road. 49 00:02:25,115 --> 00:02:26,955 The length of the road doesn't matter, 50 00:02:26,979 --> 00:02:29,710 because the longer the road, the more biofuel plantation. 51 00:02:29,734 --> 00:02:31,322 What do we do with these numbers? 52 00:02:31,346 --> 00:02:35,375 Take the first number, divide by the other three, and get eight kilometers. 53 00:02:35,399 --> 00:02:36,555 And that's the answer. 54 00:02:36,579 --> 00:02:38,939 That's how wide the plantation would have to be, 55 00:02:38,963 --> 00:02:40,814 given these assumptions. 56 00:02:41,296 --> 00:02:44,029 And maybe that makes you say, "Hmm. 57 00:02:44,053 --> 00:02:46,484 Maybe this isn't going to be quite so easy." 58 00:02:48,230 --> 00:02:50,384 And it might make you think, 59 00:02:50,862 --> 00:02:53,267 perhaps there's an issue to do with areas. 60 00:02:53,291 --> 00:02:57,188 And in this talk, I'd like to talk about land areas, and ask: 61 00:02:57,212 --> 00:02:58,695 Is there an issue about areas? 62 00:02:58,719 --> 00:03:03,379 The answer is going to be yes, but it depends which country you are in. 63 00:03:03,403 --> 00:03:05,441 So let's start in the United Kingdom, 64 00:03:05,465 --> 00:03:07,757 since that's where we are today. 65 00:03:07,781 --> 00:03:10,126 The energy consumption of the United Kingdom, 66 00:03:10,150 --> 00:03:13,837 the total energy consumption -- not just transport, but everything -- 67 00:03:14,558 --> 00:03:16,364 I like to quantify it in lightbulbs. 68 00:03:16,388 --> 00:03:19,870 It's as if we've all got 125 lightbulbs on all the time, 69 00:03:19,894 --> 00:03:23,570 125 kilowatt-hours per day per person 70 00:03:23,594 --> 00:03:26,284 is the energy consumption of the UK. 71 00:03:26,688 --> 00:03:29,454 So there's 40 lightbulbs' worth for transport, 72 00:03:29,478 --> 00:03:31,130 40 lightbulbs' worth for heating, 73 00:03:31,154 --> 00:03:33,682 and 40 lightbulbs' worth for making electricity, 74 00:03:33,706 --> 00:03:35,620 and other things are relatively small, 75 00:03:35,644 --> 00:03:38,277 compared to those three big fish. 76 00:03:38,301 --> 00:03:41,031 It's actually a bigger footprint if we take into account 77 00:03:41,055 --> 00:03:44,677 the embodied energy in the stuff we import into our country as well. 78 00:03:44,701 --> 00:03:49,435 And 90 percent of this energy, today, still comes from fossil fuels, 79 00:03:49,459 --> 00:03:53,137 and 10 percent, only, from other, greener -- possibly greener -- sources, 80 00:03:53,161 --> 00:03:55,134 like nuclear power and renewables. 81 00:03:56,233 --> 00:03:57,518 So. 82 00:03:57,542 --> 00:03:58,799 That's the UK. 83 00:03:58,823 --> 00:04:04,044 The population density of the UK is 250 people per square kilometer. 84 00:04:04,068 --> 00:04:07,330 I'm now going to show you other countries by these same two measures. 85 00:04:07,354 --> 00:04:10,490 On the vertical axis, I'm going to show you how many lightbulbs -- 86 00:04:10,514 --> 00:04:12,954 what our energy consumption per person is. 87 00:04:12,978 --> 00:04:15,097 We're at 125 lightbulbs per person, 88 00:04:15,121 --> 00:04:18,735 and that little blue dot there is showing you the land area 89 00:04:18,759 --> 00:04:20,449 of the United Kingdom. 90 00:04:20,473 --> 00:04:23,262 The population density is on the horizontal axis, 91 00:04:23,286 --> 00:04:26,009 and we're 250 people per square kilometer. 92 00:04:26,033 --> 00:04:28,602 Let's add European countries in blue, 93 00:04:28,626 --> 00:04:31,127 and you can see there's quite a variety. 94 00:04:31,151 --> 00:04:34,228 I should emphasize, both of these axes are logarithmic; 95 00:04:34,252 --> 00:04:36,807 as you go from one gray bar to the next gray bar, 96 00:04:36,831 --> 00:04:38,586 you're going up a factor of 10. 97 00:04:39,547 --> 00:04:41,888 Next, let's add Asia in red, 98 00:04:41,912 --> 00:04:44,398 the Middle East and North Africa in green, 99 00:04:45,413 --> 00:04:47,806 sub-Saharan Africa in blue, 100 00:04:48,925 --> 00:04:50,847 black is South America, 101 00:04:52,394 --> 00:04:54,239 purple is Central America, 102 00:04:54,985 --> 00:04:57,788 and then in pukey-yellow, we have North America, 103 00:04:57,812 --> 00:04:59,529 Australia and New Zealand. 104 00:05:00,450 --> 00:05:03,350 You can see the great diversity of population densities 105 00:05:03,374 --> 00:05:05,961 and of per capita consumptions. 106 00:05:06,317 --> 00:05:08,556 Countries are different from each other. 107 00:05:08,580 --> 00:05:12,136 Top left, we have Canada and Australia, with enormous land areas, 108 00:05:12,160 --> 00:05:16,648 very high per capita consumption -- 200 or 300 lightbulbs per person -- 109 00:05:16,672 --> 00:05:19,509 and very low population densities. 110 00:05:20,330 --> 00:05:23,492 Top right: Bahrain has the same energy consumption 111 00:05:23,516 --> 00:05:25,499 per person, roughly, as Canada -- 112 00:05:25,523 --> 00:05:27,765 over 300 lightbulbs per person, 113 00:05:27,789 --> 00:05:30,811 but their population density is a factor of 300 times greater, 114 00:05:30,835 --> 00:05:32,664 1,000 people per square kilometer. 115 00:05:32,688 --> 00:05:37,565 Bottom right: Bangladesh has the same population density as Bahrain, 116 00:05:37,589 --> 00:05:40,440 but consumes 100 times less per person. 117 00:05:41,179 --> 00:05:43,662 Bottom left: well, there's no one. 118 00:05:43,686 --> 00:05:45,782 But there used to be a whole load of people. 119 00:05:45,806 --> 00:05:47,759 Here's another message from this diagram. 120 00:05:47,783 --> 00:05:51,149 I've added on little blue tails behind Sudan, Libya, 121 00:05:51,173 --> 00:05:52,684 China, India, Bangladesh. 122 00:05:52,708 --> 00:05:54,843 That's 15 years of progress. 123 00:05:54,867 --> 00:05:57,388 Where were they 15 years ago, and where are they now? 124 00:05:57,412 --> 00:05:58,570 And the message is, 125 00:05:58,594 --> 00:06:01,467 most countries are going to the right, and they're going up. 126 00:06:01,491 --> 00:06:03,638 Up and to the right: bigger population density 127 00:06:03,662 --> 00:06:05,602 and higher per capita consumption. 128 00:06:05,626 --> 00:06:09,581 So, we may be off in the top right-hand corner, slightly unusual, 129 00:06:09,605 --> 00:06:11,992 the United Kingdom accompanied by Germany, 130 00:06:12,016 --> 00:06:13,986 Japan, South Korea, the Netherlands, 131 00:06:14,010 --> 00:06:16,375 and a bunch of other slightly odd countries, 132 00:06:16,399 --> 00:06:20,704 but many other countries are coming up and to the right to join us. 133 00:06:20,728 --> 00:06:22,771 So we're a picture, if you like, 134 00:06:22,795 --> 00:06:24,770 of what the future energy consumption 135 00:06:24,794 --> 00:06:27,566 might be looking like in other countries, too. 136 00:06:28,973 --> 00:06:31,892 I've also added in this diagram now some pink lines 137 00:06:31,916 --> 00:06:33,805 that go down and to the right. 138 00:06:33,829 --> 00:06:37,670 Those are lines of equal power consumption per unit area, 139 00:06:37,694 --> 00:06:39,765 which I measure in watts per square meter. 140 00:06:39,789 --> 00:06:43,636 So, for example, the middle line there, 0.1 watts per square meter, 141 00:06:43,660 --> 00:06:47,512 is the energy consumption per unit area of Saudi Arabia, 142 00:06:47,536 --> 00:06:51,717 Norway, Mexico in purple, and Bangladesh 15 years ago. 143 00:06:52,637 --> 00:06:55,826 Half of the world's population lives in countries 144 00:06:55,850 --> 00:06:57,955 that are already above that line. 145 00:06:59,710 --> 00:07:04,902 The United Kingdom is consuming 1.25 watts per square meter. 146 00:07:04,926 --> 00:07:07,948 So is Germany, and Japan is consuming a bit more. 147 00:07:09,258 --> 00:07:13,188 So, let's now say why this is relevant. 148 00:07:13,212 --> 00:07:14,599 Why is it relevant? 149 00:07:14,623 --> 00:07:17,489 Well, we can measure renewables in the same units 150 00:07:17,513 --> 00:07:20,318 and other forms of power production in the same units. 151 00:07:20,728 --> 00:07:23,471 Renewables is one of the leading ideas 152 00:07:23,495 --> 00:07:27,469 for how we could get off our 90 percent fossil-fuel habit. 153 00:07:27,802 --> 00:07:29,214 So here come some renewables. 154 00:07:29,238 --> 00:07:31,898 Energy crops deliver half a watt per square meter 155 00:07:31,922 --> 00:07:33,279 in European climates. 156 00:07:34,709 --> 00:07:35,860 What does that mean? 157 00:07:35,884 --> 00:07:37,866 You might have anticipated that result, 158 00:07:37,890 --> 00:07:41,078 given what I told you about the biofuel plantation a moment ago. 159 00:07:41,102 --> 00:07:44,098 Well, we consume 1.25 watts per square meter. 160 00:07:44,122 --> 00:07:45,279 What this means is, 161 00:07:45,303 --> 00:07:48,690 even if you covered the whole of the United Kingdom with energy crops, 162 00:07:48,714 --> 00:07:51,522 you couldn't match today's energy consumption. 163 00:07:52,636 --> 00:07:56,470 Wind power produces a bit more -- 2.5 watts per square meter. 164 00:07:56,494 --> 00:08:00,507 But that's only twice as big as 1.25 watts per square meter. 165 00:08:01,043 --> 00:08:05,165 So that means if you wanted, literally, to produce total energy consumption 166 00:08:05,189 --> 00:08:07,420 in all forms, on average, from wind farms, 167 00:08:07,444 --> 00:08:10,076 you need wind farms half the area of the UK. 168 00:08:11,579 --> 00:08:15,000 I've got data to back up all these assertions, by the way. 169 00:08:15,643 --> 00:08:17,552 Next, let's look at solar power. 170 00:08:18,119 --> 00:08:20,137 Solar panels, when you put them on a roof, 171 00:08:20,161 --> 00:08:24,476 deliver about 20 watts per square meter in England. 172 00:08:25,900 --> 00:08:28,282 If you really want to get a lot from solar panels, 173 00:08:28,306 --> 00:08:31,110 you need to adopt the traditional Bavarian farming method, 174 00:08:31,134 --> 00:08:32,485 where you leap off the roof, 175 00:08:32,509 --> 00:08:35,013 and coat the countryside with solar panels, too. 176 00:08:35,037 --> 00:08:38,233 Solar parks, because of the gaps between the panels, deliver less. 177 00:08:38,257 --> 00:08:41,664 They deliver about 5 watts per square meter of land area. 178 00:08:41,688 --> 00:08:44,990 And here's a solar park in Vermont, with real data, 179 00:08:45,014 --> 00:08:47,538 delivering 4.2 watts per square meter. 180 00:08:48,061 --> 00:08:50,968 Remember where we are, 1.25 watts per square meter, 181 00:08:50,992 --> 00:08:54,043 wind farms 2.5, solar parks about five. 182 00:08:54,897 --> 00:08:58,327 So whichever of those renewables you pick, 183 00:08:58,351 --> 00:09:01,900 the message is, whatever mix of those renewables you're using, 184 00:09:01,924 --> 00:09:04,105 if you want to power the UK on them, 185 00:09:04,129 --> 00:09:06,230 you're going to need to cover something like 186 00:09:06,254 --> 00:09:09,112 20 percent or 25 percent of the country 187 00:09:09,136 --> 00:09:10,775 with those renewables. 188 00:09:11,150 --> 00:09:14,662 I'm not saying that's a bad idea; we just need to understand the numbers. 189 00:09:14,686 --> 00:09:17,258 I'm absolutely not anti-renewables. I love renewables. 190 00:09:17,282 --> 00:09:18,918 But I'm also pro-arithmetic. 191 00:09:18,942 --> 00:09:20,647 (Laughter) 192 00:09:20,671 --> 00:09:24,803 Concentrating solar power in deserts delivers larger powers per unit area, 193 00:09:24,827 --> 00:09:27,178 because you don't have the problem of clouds. 194 00:09:27,202 --> 00:09:30,406 So, this facility delivers 14 watts per square meter; 195 00:09:30,430 --> 00:09:32,141 this one 10 watts per square meter; 196 00:09:32,165 --> 00:09:34,921 and this one in Spain, 5 watts per square meter. 197 00:09:34,945 --> 00:09:37,119 Being generous to concentrating solar power, 198 00:09:37,143 --> 00:09:40,807 I think it's perfectly credible it could deliver 20 watts per square meter. 199 00:09:40,831 --> 00:09:41,997 So that's nice. 200 00:09:42,021 --> 00:09:44,573 Of course, Britain doesn't have any deserts. 201 00:09:44,955 --> 00:09:46,111 Yet. 202 00:09:46,135 --> 00:09:47,820 (Laughter) 203 00:09:47,844 --> 00:09:50,209 So here's a summary so far: 204 00:09:51,035 --> 00:09:53,659 All renewables, much as I love them, are diffuse. 205 00:09:53,683 --> 00:09:55,722 They all have a small power per unit area, 206 00:09:55,746 --> 00:09:57,541 and we have to live with that fact. 207 00:09:58,271 --> 00:10:03,563 And that means, if you do want renewables to make a substantial difference 208 00:10:03,587 --> 00:10:05,375 for a country like the United Kingdom 209 00:10:05,399 --> 00:10:07,491 on the scale of today's consumption, 210 00:10:07,515 --> 00:10:11,916 you need to be imagining renewable facilities that are country-sized. 211 00:10:11,940 --> 00:10:13,253 Not the entire country, 212 00:10:13,277 --> 00:10:16,644 but a fraction of the country, a substantial fraction. 213 00:10:17,684 --> 00:10:20,231 There are other options for generating power as well, 214 00:10:20,255 --> 00:10:21,939 which don't involve fossil fuels. 215 00:10:21,963 --> 00:10:25,118 So there's nuclear power, and on this ordinance survey map, 216 00:10:25,142 --> 00:10:28,881 you can see there's a Sizewell B inside a blue square kilometer. 217 00:10:28,905 --> 00:10:30,908 That's one gigawatt in a square kilometer, 218 00:10:30,932 --> 00:10:33,357 which works out to 1,000 watts per square meter. 219 00:10:33,381 --> 00:10:35,517 So by this particular metric, 220 00:10:35,541 --> 00:10:40,736 nuclear power isn't as intrusive as renewables. 221 00:10:41,322 --> 00:10:43,317 Of course, other metrics matter, too, 222 00:10:43,341 --> 00:10:46,051 and nuclear power has all sorts of popularity problems. 223 00:10:46,964 --> 00:10:49,001 But the same goes for renewables as well. 224 00:10:49,025 --> 00:10:51,853 Here's a photograph of a consultation exercise in full swing 225 00:10:51,877 --> 00:10:54,565 in the little town of Penicuik just outside Edinburgh, 226 00:10:54,589 --> 00:10:57,083 and you can see the children of Penicuik celebrating 227 00:10:57,107 --> 00:10:59,477 the burning of the effigy of the windmill. 228 00:10:59,501 --> 00:11:00,660 So -- 229 00:11:00,684 --> 00:11:01,734 (Laughter) 230 00:11:01,758 --> 00:11:03,087 People are anti-everything, 231 00:11:03,111 --> 00:11:05,769 and we've got to keep all the options on the table. 232 00:11:06,328 --> 00:11:09,967 What can a country like the UK do on the supply side? 233 00:11:09,991 --> 00:11:12,910 Well, the options are, I'd say, these three: 234 00:11:12,934 --> 00:11:14,112 power renewables, 235 00:11:14,136 --> 00:11:17,847 and recognizing that they need to be close to country-sized; 236 00:11:17,871 --> 00:11:19,117 other people's renewables, 237 00:11:19,141 --> 00:11:21,268 so we could go back and talk very politely 238 00:11:21,292 --> 00:11:24,329 to the people in the top left-hand side of the diagram and say, 239 00:11:24,353 --> 00:11:26,604 "Uh, we don't want renewables in our backyard, 240 00:11:26,628 --> 00:11:29,222 but, um, please could we put them in yours instead?" 241 00:11:29,246 --> 00:11:31,211 And that's a serious option. 242 00:11:31,235 --> 00:11:34,819 It's a way for the world to handle this issue. 243 00:11:34,843 --> 00:11:38,975 So countries like Australia, Russia, Libya, Kazakhstan, 244 00:11:38,999 --> 00:11:41,999 could be our best friends for renewable production. 245 00:11:43,356 --> 00:11:45,392 And a third option is nuclear power. 246 00:11:45,416 --> 00:11:47,632 So that's some supply-side options. 247 00:11:47,656 --> 00:11:50,948 In addition to the supply levers that we can push -- 248 00:11:50,972 --> 00:11:53,007 and remember, we need large amounts, 249 00:11:53,031 --> 00:11:56,558 because at the moment, we get 90 percent of our energy from fossil fuels -- 250 00:11:56,582 --> 00:11:57,942 in addition to those levers, 251 00:11:57,966 --> 00:12:01,017 we could talk about other ways of solving this issue. 252 00:12:01,041 --> 00:12:04,437 Namely, we could reduce demand, and that means reducing population -- 253 00:12:04,461 --> 00:12:06,276 I'm not sure how to do that -- 254 00:12:06,300 --> 00:12:09,112 or reducing per capita consumption. 255 00:12:09,136 --> 00:12:11,599 So let's talk about three more big levers 256 00:12:11,623 --> 00:12:13,949 that could really help on the consumption side. 257 00:12:13,973 --> 00:12:15,127 First, transport. 258 00:12:15,151 --> 00:12:16,694 Here are the physics principles 259 00:12:16,718 --> 00:12:19,768 that tell you how to reduce the energy consumption of transport. 260 00:12:19,792 --> 00:12:22,238 People often say, "Technology can answer everything. 261 00:12:22,262 --> 00:12:25,038 We can make vehicles that are 100 times more efficient." 262 00:12:25,062 --> 00:12:27,042 And that's almost true. Let me show you. 263 00:12:27,066 --> 00:12:29,534 The energy consumption of this typical tank here 264 00:12:29,558 --> 00:12:32,982 is 80 kilowatt hours per hundred person kilometers. 265 00:12:33,006 --> 00:12:36,801 That's the average European car. 266 00:12:37,347 --> 00:12:38,498 Eighty kilowatt hours. 267 00:12:38,522 --> 00:12:40,610 Can we make something 100 times better 268 00:12:40,634 --> 00:12:42,947 by applying the physics principles I just listed? 269 00:12:42,971 --> 00:12:44,614 Yes. Here it is. It's the bicycle. 270 00:12:44,638 --> 00:12:47,284 It's 80 times better in energy consumption, 271 00:12:47,308 --> 00:12:49,532 and it's powered by biofuel, by Weetabix. 272 00:12:49,556 --> 00:12:51,694 (Laughter) 273 00:12:51,718 --> 00:12:53,585 And there are other options in between, 274 00:12:53,609 --> 00:12:55,736 because maybe the lady in the tank would say, 275 00:12:55,760 --> 00:12:58,916 "No, that's a lifestyle change. Don't change my lifestyle, please." 276 00:12:58,940 --> 00:13:02,587 We could persuade her to take a train, still a lot more efficient than a car, 277 00:13:02,611 --> 00:13:04,386 but that might be a lifestyle change. 278 00:13:04,410 --> 00:13:05,994 Or there's the EcoCAR, top-left. 279 00:13:06,018 --> 00:13:09,753 It comfortably accommodates one teenager and it's shorter than a traffic cone, 280 00:13:09,777 --> 00:13:11,813 and it's almost as efficient as a bicycle, 281 00:13:11,837 --> 00:13:14,877 as long as you drive it at 15 miles per hour. 282 00:13:15,299 --> 00:13:17,526 In between, perhaps some more realistic options 283 00:13:17,550 --> 00:13:20,515 on the transport lever are electric vehicles, 284 00:13:20,539 --> 00:13:22,918 so electric bikes and electric cars in the middle, 285 00:13:22,942 --> 00:13:27,968 perhaps four times as energy efficient as the standard petrol-powered tank. 286 00:13:28,778 --> 00:13:30,676 Next, there's the heating lever. 287 00:13:30,700 --> 00:13:34,191 Heating is a third of our energy consumption in Britain, 288 00:13:34,215 --> 00:13:36,288 and quite a lot of that is going into homes 289 00:13:36,312 --> 00:13:37,695 and other buildings, 290 00:13:37,719 --> 00:13:39,696 doing space heating and water heating. 291 00:13:39,720 --> 00:13:42,004 So here's a typical crappy British house. 292 00:13:42,028 --> 00:13:44,747 It's my house, with a Ferrari out front. 293 00:13:44,771 --> 00:13:45,836 (Laughter) 294 00:13:45,860 --> 00:13:47,013 What can we do to it? 295 00:13:47,037 --> 00:13:50,698 Well, the laws of physics are written up there, 296 00:13:50,722 --> 00:13:55,970 which describe how the power consumption for heating 297 00:13:55,994 --> 00:13:57,902 is driven by the things you can control. 298 00:13:57,926 --> 00:14:00,820 The things you can control are the temperature difference 299 00:14:00,844 --> 00:14:02,527 between the inside and the outside. 300 00:14:02,551 --> 00:14:05,165 There's this remarkable technology called a thermostat: 301 00:14:05,189 --> 00:14:06,925 you grasp it, rotate it to the left, 302 00:14:06,949 --> 00:14:09,478 and your energy consumption in the home will decrease. 303 00:14:09,502 --> 00:14:12,605 I've tried it. It works. Some people call it a lifestyle change. 304 00:14:12,629 --> 00:14:13,713 (Laughter) 305 00:14:13,737 --> 00:14:17,217 You can also get the fluff men in to reduce the leakiness 306 00:14:17,241 --> 00:14:20,210 of your building -- put fluff in the walls, fluff in the roof, 307 00:14:20,234 --> 00:14:22,028 a new front door, and so forth. 308 00:14:23,452 --> 00:14:26,037 The sad truth is, this will save you money. 309 00:14:26,061 --> 00:14:27,401 That's not sad, that's good. 310 00:14:27,425 --> 00:14:28,603 But the sad truth is, 311 00:14:28,627 --> 00:14:31,826 it'll only get about 25 percent of the leakiness of your building 312 00:14:31,850 --> 00:14:34,545 if you do these things, which are good ideas. 313 00:14:34,569 --> 00:14:37,828 If you really want to get a bit closer to Swedish building standards 314 00:14:37,852 --> 00:14:39,502 with a crappy house like this, 315 00:14:39,526 --> 00:14:42,972 you need to be putting external insulation on the building, 316 00:14:42,996 --> 00:14:45,268 as shown by this block of flats in London. 317 00:14:46,652 --> 00:14:49,657 You can also deliver heat more efficiently using heat pumps, 318 00:14:49,681 --> 00:14:53,151 which use a smaller bit of high-grade energy like electricity 319 00:14:53,175 --> 00:14:55,740 to move heat from your garden into your house. 320 00:14:56,676 --> 00:14:59,046 The third demand-side option I want to talk about, 321 00:14:59,070 --> 00:15:02,216 the third way to reduce energy consumption is: read your meters. 322 00:15:02,240 --> 00:15:04,069 People talk a lot about smart meters, 323 00:15:04,093 --> 00:15:05,440 but you can do it yourself. 324 00:15:05,464 --> 00:15:07,389 Use your own eyes and be smart. 325 00:15:07,413 --> 00:15:11,076 Read your meter, and if you're anything like me, it'll change your life. 326 00:15:11,100 --> 00:15:12,532 Here's a graph I made. 327 00:15:12,556 --> 00:15:14,700 I was writing a book about sustainable energy, 328 00:15:14,724 --> 00:15:15,878 and a friend asked me, 329 00:15:15,902 --> 00:15:17,716 "How much energy do you use at home?" 330 00:15:17,740 --> 00:15:19,760 I was embarrassed; I didn't actually know. 331 00:15:19,784 --> 00:15:21,985 And so I started reading the meter every week. 332 00:15:22,009 --> 00:15:25,801 The old meter readings are shown in the top half of the graph, 333 00:15:25,825 --> 00:15:28,050 and then 2007 is shown in green at the bottom. 334 00:15:28,074 --> 00:15:30,396 That was when I was reading the meter every week. 335 00:15:30,420 --> 00:15:31,586 And my life changed, 336 00:15:31,610 --> 00:15:34,965 because I started doing experiments and seeing what made a difference. 337 00:15:34,989 --> 00:15:36,394 My gas consumption plummeted, 338 00:15:36,418 --> 00:15:38,637 because I started tinkering with the thermostat 339 00:15:38,661 --> 00:15:40,460 and the timing on the heating system, 340 00:15:40,484 --> 00:15:42,697 and I knocked more than half off my gas bills. 341 00:15:42,721 --> 00:15:45,604 There's a similar story for my electricity consumption, 342 00:15:45,628 --> 00:15:49,190 where switching off the DVD players, the stereos, 343 00:15:49,214 --> 00:15:52,008 the computer peripherals that were on all the time, 344 00:15:52,032 --> 00:15:54,227 and just switching them on when I needed them, 345 00:15:54,251 --> 00:15:56,876 knocked another third off my electricity bills, too. 346 00:15:58,142 --> 00:15:59,908 So we need a plan that adds up. 347 00:15:59,932 --> 00:16:02,522 I've described for you six big levers. 348 00:16:02,546 --> 00:16:03,712 We need big action, 349 00:16:03,736 --> 00:16:06,498 because we get 90 percent of our energy from fossil fuels, 350 00:16:06,522 --> 00:16:10,568 and so you need to push hard on most, if not all, of these levers. 351 00:16:11,288 --> 00:16:13,574 Most of these levers have popularity problems, 352 00:16:13,598 --> 00:16:17,264 and if there is a lever you don't like the use of, 353 00:16:17,288 --> 00:16:21,105 well, please do bear in mind that means you need even stronger effort 354 00:16:21,129 --> 00:16:23,010 on the other levers. 355 00:16:23,456 --> 00:16:26,607 So I'm a strong advocate of having grown-up conversations 356 00:16:26,631 --> 00:16:28,892 that are based on numbers and facts. 357 00:16:28,916 --> 00:16:32,692 And I want to close with this map that just visualizes for you 358 00:16:32,716 --> 00:16:36,253 the requirement of land and so forth 359 00:16:36,277 --> 00:16:39,341 in order to get just 16 lightbulbs per person 360 00:16:39,365 --> 00:16:42,053 from four of the big possible sources. 361 00:16:42,474 --> 00:16:45,634 So, if you wanted to get 16 lightbulbs -- 362 00:16:45,658 --> 00:16:49,979 remember, today our total energy consumption is 125 lightbulbs' worth -- 363 00:16:50,003 --> 00:16:52,226 if you wanted 16 from wind, 364 00:16:52,250 --> 00:16:55,077 this map visualizes a solution for the UK. 365 00:16:55,101 --> 00:16:59,258 It's got 160 wind farms, each 100 square kilometers in size, 366 00:16:59,282 --> 00:17:03,166 and that would be a twentyfold increase over today's amount of wind. 367 00:17:03,190 --> 00:17:06,098 Nuclear power: to get 16 lightbulbs per person, 368 00:17:06,122 --> 00:17:09,211 you'd need two gigawatts at each of the purple dots on the map. 369 00:17:09,235 --> 00:17:13,418 That's a fourfold increase over today's levels of nuclear power. 370 00:17:14,069 --> 00:17:16,767 Biomass: to get 16 lightbulbs per person, 371 00:17:16,791 --> 00:17:21,053 you'd need a land area something like three and a half Wales' worth, 372 00:17:21,823 --> 00:17:24,405 either in our country, or in someone else's country, 373 00:17:24,429 --> 00:17:26,472 possibly Ireland, possibly somewhere else. 374 00:17:26,496 --> 00:17:27,575 (Laughter) 375 00:17:27,599 --> 00:17:29,390 And a fourth supply-side option: 376 00:17:29,414 --> 00:17:32,131 concentrating solar power in other people's deserts. 377 00:17:32,554 --> 00:17:34,993 If you wanted to get 16 lightbulbs' worth, 378 00:17:35,017 --> 00:17:38,032 then we're talking about these eight hexagons 379 00:17:38,056 --> 00:17:39,367 down at the bottom right. 380 00:17:39,391 --> 00:17:43,616 The total area of those hexagons is two Greater London's worth 381 00:17:43,640 --> 00:17:45,729 of someone else's Sahara, 382 00:17:45,753 --> 00:17:48,760 and you'll need power lines all the way across Spain and France 383 00:17:48,784 --> 00:17:52,154 to bring the power from the Sahara to Surrey. 384 00:17:52,595 --> 00:17:53,745 (Laughter) 385 00:17:53,769 --> 00:17:55,363 We need a plan that adds up. 386 00:17:56,295 --> 00:17:58,797 We need to stop shouting and start talking. 387 00:18:00,209 --> 00:18:04,432 And if we can have a grown-up conversation, 388 00:18:04,456 --> 00:18:06,917 make a plan that adds up and get building, 389 00:18:06,941 --> 00:18:09,945 maybe this low-carbon revolution will actually be fun. 390 00:18:09,969 --> 00:18:11,707 Thank you very much for listening. 391 00:18:11,731 --> 00:18:14,237 (Applause)