0:00:00.151,0:00:01.476
Bryn Freedman: You're a guy

0:00:01.500,0:00:06.087
whose company funds[br]these AI programs and invests.

0:00:06.111,0:00:11.156
So why should we trust you[br]to not have a bias

0:00:11.180,0:00:14.356
and tell us something really useful[br]for the rest of us

0:00:14.380,0:00:16.601
about the future of work?

0:00:17.046,0:00:18.537
Roy Bahat: Yes, I am.

0:00:18.561,0:00:21.549
And when you wake up in the morning[br]and you read the newspaper

0:00:21.573,0:00:25.022
and it says, "The robots are coming,[br]they may take all our jobs,"

0:00:25.046,0:00:27.577
as a start-up investor,[br]focused on the future of work,

0:00:27.601,0:00:29.918
our fund was the first one to say

0:00:29.942,0:00:32.252
artificial intelligence[br]should be a focus for us.

0:00:32.276,0:00:34.529
So I woke up one morning[br]and read that and said,

0:00:34.553,0:00:36.426
"Oh, my gosh, they're talking about me.

0:00:36.450,0:00:38.000
That's me who's doing that."

0:00:38.839,0:00:40.863
And then I thought, wait a minute.

0:00:40.887,0:00:43.299
If things continue,

0:00:43.323,0:00:48.577
then maybe not only will the start-ups[br]in which we invest struggle,

0:00:48.601,0:00:51.162
because there won't people to have jobs

0:00:51.186,0:00:54.048
to pay for the things[br]that they make and buy them,

0:00:54.072,0:00:56.989
but our economy and society[br]might struggle, too.

0:00:57.013,0:00:58.918
And look, I should be the guy

0:00:58.942,0:01:01.871
who sits here and tells you,[br]"Everything is going to be fine."

0:01:01.895,0:01:03.498
It's all going to work out great.

0:01:03.522,0:01:05.617
Hey, when they introduced the ATM machine,

0:01:05.641,0:01:08.489
years later there's more[br]tellers in banks, it's true.

0:01:08.513,0:01:10.474
And yet, when I looked at it, I thought,

0:01:10.498,0:01:13.093
"This is going to accelerate,[br]and if it does accelerate

0:01:13.117,0:01:15.133
there's a chance the center doesn't hold."

0:01:15.157,0:01:17.602
But I figured somebody must know[br]the answer to this,

0:01:17.626,0:01:19.164
there's so many ideas out there.

0:01:19.188,0:01:22.696
And I read all the books[br]and I went to the conferences,

0:01:22.720,0:01:26.434
and at one point we counted[br]more than 100 efforts

0:01:26.458,0:01:28.363
to study the future of work.

0:01:28.387,0:01:31.244
And it was a frustrating experience,

0:01:31.268,0:01:35.283
because I'd hear the same back-and-forth[br]over and over again:

0:01:35.307,0:01:37.085
"The robots are coming,"

0:01:37.109,0:01:38.712
and then somebody else would say,

0:01:38.736,0:01:40.086
"Oh, don't worry about that,

0:01:40.110,0:01:42.300
they've always said that[br]and it turns out OK."

0:01:42.324,0:01:43.928
And then somebody else would say,

0:01:43.952,0:01:46.624
"Well, it's really about the meaning[br]of your job anyway."

0:01:46.648,0:01:49.592
And then everybody would shrug[br]and [unclear] and have a drink.

0:01:49.616,0:01:52.676
And it felt like there was this[br]Kabuki theater of this discussion

0:01:52.700,0:01:54.588
where nobody was talking to each other.

0:01:54.612,0:01:55.834
And many of the people

0:01:55.858,0:01:58.287
that I knew and worked with[br]in the technology world

0:01:58.311,0:01:59.985
were not speaking to policy makers,

0:02:00.009,0:02:02.077
the policy makers[br]were not speaking to them,

0:02:02.101,0:02:05.809
and so we partnered with a non-partisan[br]think tank NGO called New America

0:02:05.833,0:02:07.166
to study this issue.

0:02:07.190,0:02:09.538
And we brought together a group of people

0:02:09.562,0:02:12.992
including an AI tzar[br]at a technology company,

0:02:13.016,0:02:16.395
and a video game designer,[br]and a heartland conservative,

0:02:16.419,0:02:19.617
and a Wall Street investor,[br]and a socialist magazine editor,

0:02:19.641,0:02:22.506
literally, all in the same room,[br]it was occasionally awkward,

0:02:22.530,0:02:25.244
and tried to figure out[br]what is it that will happen here.

0:02:25.268,0:02:28.088
The question we asked was simple.

0:02:28.704,0:02:32.117
It was, what is the effect of technology[br]on work going to be?

0:02:32.141,0:02:33.768
And we looked out 10 to 20 years,

0:02:33.792,0:02:37.323
because we wanted to look out far enough[br]that there could be a real change,

0:02:37.347,0:02:40.196
but soon enough that we weren't[br]talking about teleportation

0:02:40.220,0:02:41.387
or anything like that.

0:02:41.411,0:02:42.935
And we recognized,

0:02:42.959,0:02:45.744
and I think every year[br]we're reminded of this in the world,

0:02:45.768,0:02:47.975
that predicting what's[br]going to happen is hard,

0:02:47.999,0:02:50.855
so instead of predicting,[br]there are other things you can do.

0:02:50.879,0:02:53.720
Which is, you can try to imagine[br]alternate possible futures,

0:02:53.744,0:02:56.633
which is what we did,[br]we did a scenario-planning exercise,

0:02:56.657,0:02:59.723
and we imagined cases[br]where no job is safe.

0:02:59.747,0:03:02.850
We imagined cases where every job is safe.

0:03:02.874,0:03:06.913
And we imagined every[br]distinct possibility we could.

0:03:06.937,0:03:10.220
And the result, which really surprised us,

0:03:10.244,0:03:13.942
was when you think through those futures[br]and you think what should we do,

0:03:13.966,0:03:15.688
the answers about what we should do

0:03:15.712,0:03:19.098
actually turn out to be the same[br]no matter what happens.

0:03:19.425,0:03:22.973
And the irony of looking out[br]10 to 20 years into the future

0:03:22.997,0:03:25.600
is you realize that the things[br]we want to act on

0:03:25.624,0:03:27.585
are actually already happening right now.

0:03:27.609,0:03:30.395
The automation is right now,[br]the future is right now.

0:03:30.419,0:03:33.014
BF: So what does that mean,[br]and what does that tell us,

0:03:33.038,0:03:35.702
if the future is now, what is it[br]that we should be doing

0:03:35.726,0:03:37.630
and what should we be thinking about?

0:03:37.654,0:03:39.734
RB: We have to understand[br]the problem first.

0:03:39.758,0:03:43.797
And so the data are that as the economy[br]becomes more productive,

0:03:43.821,0:03:45.966
and individual workers[br]become more productive,

0:03:45.990,0:03:47.252
their wages haven't risen.

0:03:47.276,0:03:50.466
If you look at the proportion[br]of prime working-age men,

0:03:50.490,0:03:51.982
in the United States at least,

0:03:52.006,0:03:55.755
who work now versus in 1960,

0:03:55.779,0:03:58.247
we have three times[br]as many men not working,

0:03:58.271,0:03:59.752
and then you hear the stories.

0:03:59.776,0:04:01.808
I sat down with a group[br]of Walmart workers

0:04:01.832,0:04:04.188
and I said, "What do you think[br]about this cashier,

0:04:04.212,0:04:06.069
this futuristic self-check out thing?"

0:04:06.093,0:04:07.252
They said, "That's nice,

0:04:07.276,0:04:09.292
but have you heard[br]about the cash recycler,

0:04:09.316,0:04:11.688
that's a machine that's being[br]installed right now,

0:04:11.712,0:04:14.291
it's eliminating two jobs[br]at every Walmart right now."

0:04:14.315,0:04:16.555
And we thought we didn't[br]understand the problem,

0:04:16.579,0:04:20.459
and we looked at the voices[br]that were the ones that were excluded.

0:04:20.483,0:04:23.125
Which is, all of the people[br]affected by this change.

0:04:23.149,0:04:24.736
And we decided to listen to them,

0:04:24.760,0:04:26.744
sort of, automation and its discontents.

0:04:26.768,0:04:29.014
I've spent the last[br]couple of years doing that.

0:04:29.038,0:04:31.467
I've been to Flint, Michigan,[br]and Youngstown, Ohio,

0:04:31.491,0:04:32.871
talking about entrepreneurs,

0:04:32.895,0:04:35.427
trying to make it work[br]in a very different environment

0:04:35.451,0:04:38.069
from New York or San Francisco[br]or London or Tokyo.

0:04:38.735,0:04:40.117
I've been to prisons twice,

0:04:40.141,0:04:42.714
to talk to inmates about[br]their jobs after they leave.

0:04:43.077,0:04:46.824
I've sat down with truck drivers[br]to ask them about the self-driving truck,

0:04:46.848,0:04:49.302
with people who, in addition[br]to their full-time job,

0:04:49.326,0:04:51.110
care for an aging relative,

0:04:51.134,0:04:52.698
and when you talk to people,

0:04:52.722,0:04:55.602
there were two themes[br]that came out loud and clear.

0:04:56.285,0:05:01.129
The first one was that people[br]are less looking for more money

0:05:01.153,0:05:04.431
or get out of the fear[br]of the robot taking their job,

0:05:04.455,0:05:06.351
and they just want something stable.

0:05:06.375,0:05:07.915
They want something predictable.

0:05:07.939,0:05:11.614
So if you survey people and ask them[br]what they want out of work,

0:05:11.638,0:05:15.118
for everybody who makes[br]less than 150,000 dollars a year,

0:05:15.142,0:05:18.498
they'll take a more stable[br]and secure income, on average,

0:05:18.522,0:05:20.387
over earning more money.

0:05:20.411,0:05:22.625
And if you think about the fact that

0:05:22.649,0:05:26.037
not only for all of the people[br]across the earth who don't earn a living,

0:05:26.061,0:05:27.252
but for those who do,

0:05:27.276,0:05:30.236
the vast majority earn a different[br]amount from month to month

0:05:30.260,0:05:31.474
and have an instability,

0:05:31.498,0:05:32.895
all of a sudden you realize,

0:05:32.919,0:05:35.466
"Wait a minute, we have[br]a real problem on our hands."

0:05:35.490,0:05:39.164
And the second thing they say,[br]which took us a longer time to understand,

0:05:39.188,0:05:41.522
is that they say they want dignity.

0:05:41.894,0:05:47.006
And that concept[br]of self-worth through work

0:05:47.030,0:05:49.641
emerged again and again[br]and again in our conversations.

0:05:49.665,0:05:52.649
BF: So, I certainly[br]appreciate this answer,

0:05:52.673,0:05:54.057
but you can't eat dignity,

0:05:54.081,0:05:57.053
you can't clothe your children[br]with self-esteem.

0:05:57.077,0:06:02.418
So, what is that, how do you reconcile[br]what does dignity mean

0:06:02.442,0:06:06.117
and what is the relationship[br]between dignity and stability?

0:06:06.141,0:06:07.394
RB: You can't eat dignity.

0:06:07.418,0:06:08.625
You need stability first.

0:06:08.649,0:06:09.887
And the good news is,

0:06:09.911,0:06:12.666
many of the conversations[br]that are happening right now,

0:06:12.690,0:06:14.252
are about how we solve that.

0:06:14.276,0:06:18.141
You know, I'm a proponent[br]of studying guaranteed income,

0:06:18.165,0:06:19.442
as one example.

0:06:19.466,0:06:21.754
Conversations about how[br]health care gets provided

0:06:21.778,0:06:23.017
and other benefits.

0:06:23.041,0:06:24.818
Those conversations are happening,

0:06:24.842,0:06:27.238
and we're at a time[br]where we must figure that out,

0:06:27.262,0:06:28.903
it is the crisis of our era.

0:06:28.927,0:06:31.839
And my point of view[br]after talking to people

0:06:31.863,0:06:33.903
is that we may do that,

0:06:33.927,0:06:35.506
and it still might not be enough.

0:06:35.530,0:06:37.712
Because what we need to do[br]from the beginning,

0:06:37.736,0:06:40.672
is understand what it is about work[br]that gives people dignity,

0:06:40.696,0:06:43.966
so that they can live[br]the lives that they want to live.

0:06:43.990,0:06:48.005
And so that concept of dignity is ...

0:06:48.029,0:06:49.966
it's difficult to get your hands around.

0:06:49.990,0:06:53.426
Because what many people hear,[br]and especially, to be honest, rich people,

0:06:53.450,0:06:54.651
they hear meaning.

0:06:54.675,0:06:56.593
They hear "my work is important to me."

0:06:56.617,0:06:58.157
And again, if you survey people,

0:06:58.181,0:07:00.355
and you ask them,

0:07:00.379,0:07:03.879
"How important is it to you[br]that your work be important to you?"

0:07:03.903,0:07:07.204
only people who make[br]150,000 dollars a year or more

0:07:07.228,0:07:11.282
say that it is important to them[br]that their work be important.

0:07:12.050,0:07:13.275
BF: Meaning, meaningful?

0:07:13.744,0:07:16.502
RB: Just defined as,[br]"Is your work important to you?"

0:07:17.976,0:07:19.696
Whatever somebody took that to mean.

0:07:19.720,0:07:21.680
And yet, of course dignity is essential,

0:07:21.704,0:07:23.466
we talked to truck drivers who said,

0:07:23.490,0:07:25.052
"I saw my cousin drive,

0:07:25.076,0:07:27.336
and I got on the open road[br]and it was amazing,

0:07:27.360,0:07:30.432
and I started making more money[br]than people who went to college."

0:07:30.456,0:07:32.661
And then they'd get[br]to the end of their thought

0:07:32.685,0:07:33.871
and say something like,

0:07:33.895,0:07:36.483
People need their fruits[br]and vegetables in the morning,

0:07:36.507,0:07:38.151
I'm the guy who gets it to them."

0:07:38.175,0:07:40.719
And we talked to somebody who,[br]in addition to his job,

0:07:40.743,0:07:41.942
was caring for his aunt.

0:07:41.966,0:07:44.877
He was making plenty of money,[br]and at one point we just asked,

0:07:44.901,0:07:48.758
"What is it about caring for your aunt,[br]can't you pay somebody to do it?"

0:07:48.782,0:07:52.204
He said, "My aunt doesn't want[br]somebody we pay for, she wants me."

0:07:52.601,0:07:56.268
And so there was this[br]concept there of being needed.

0:07:56.292,0:07:58.825
And if you study the word[br]"dignity," it's fascinating,

0:07:58.849,0:08:01.341
it's one of the oldest words[br]in the English language,

0:08:01.365,0:08:03.474
it's from antiquity[br]and it has two meanings:

0:08:03.498,0:08:04.672
one is self-worth,

0:08:04.696,0:08:08.653
and the other is that something[br]is suitable, it's fitting.

0:08:08.677,0:08:11.535
Meaning that you're part[br]of something greater than yourself,

0:08:11.559,0:08:15.050
and it connects to some broader whole,[br]in other words, that you're needed.

0:08:15.074,0:08:16.947
BF: So how do you answer this question,

0:08:16.971,0:08:21.387
this concept that we don't pay teachers,[br]and elder-care workers

0:08:21.411,0:08:24.537
and we don't pay people[br]who really care for people

0:08:24.561,0:08:26.847
and are needed, enough?

0:08:26.871,0:08:30.062
RB: Well, the good news is,[br]people are finally asking the question,

0:08:30.086,0:08:32.380
so as AI investors,[br]we often get phone calls

0:08:32.404,0:08:35.134
from foundations or CEOs[br]and boardrooms saying,

0:08:35.158,0:08:36.491
"What do we do about this?"

0:08:36.515,0:08:37.823
And they used to be asking,

0:08:37.847,0:08:39.957
"What do we do about[br]introducing automation?"

0:08:39.982,0:08:42.679
And now they're asking,[br]"What do we do about self-worth?"

0:08:42.703,0:08:45.125
And they know that the employees[br]who work for them,

0:08:45.149,0:08:47.371
who have a spouse who cares for somebody,

0:08:47.395,0:08:50.918
that dignity is essential to their[br]ability to just do their job.

0:08:50.942,0:08:52.744
I think there's two kinds of answers:

0:08:52.768,0:08:55.268
there's the money side[br]of just making your life work.

0:08:55.292,0:08:56.442
That's stability.

0:08:56.466,0:08:57.617
You need to eat.

0:08:57.641,0:08:59.998
And then you think about[br]our culture more broadly,

0:09:00.022,0:09:02.680
and you ask who do we make into heroes?

0:09:02.704,0:09:07.164
And, you know, what I want[br]is to see the magazine cover

0:09:07.188,0:09:09.849
that is the person[br]who is the heroic caregiver.

0:09:10.292,0:09:13.022
Or the Netflix series[br]that dramatizes the person

0:09:13.046,0:09:16.283
who makes all of our other lives work[br]so we can do the things we do.

0:09:16.307,0:09:18.156
Let's make heroes out of those people,

0:09:18.180,0:09:20.212
that's the Netflix show[br]that I would binge.

0:09:20.236,0:09:22.514
And we've had chroniclers of this before,

0:09:22.538,0:09:23.728
Studs Terkel,

0:09:23.752,0:09:27.458
the oral history of the working[br]experience in the United States.

0:09:27.482,0:09:30.634
And what we need is the experience[br]of needing one another

0:09:30.658,0:09:32.283
and being connected to each other.

0:09:32.307,0:09:35.347
Maybe that's the answer[br]for how we all fit as a society.

0:09:35.371,0:09:38.593
And the thought exercise to me[br]is if you were to go back 100 years,

0:09:38.617,0:09:41.586
and have people, you know,[br]my grandparents, great-grandparents,

0:09:41.610,0:09:43.490
a tailor, worked in a mine,

0:09:43.514,0:09:45.585
they look at what all of us[br]do for a living,

0:09:45.609,0:09:47.339
they say, "That's not work."

0:09:47.363,0:09:51.132
We sit there and type and talk[br]and there's no danger of getting hurt.

0:09:51.526,0:09:55.017
And my guess is that if you were[br]to imagine 100 years from now,

0:09:55.041,0:09:57.065
we'll still be doing things[br]for each other.

0:09:57.089,0:09:58.549
We'll still need one another.

0:09:58.573,0:10:00.514
And we just will think of it as work.

0:10:00.538,0:10:02.212
The entire thing I'm trying to say

0:10:02.236,0:10:05.109
is that dignity should not[br]just be about having a job.

0:10:05.133,0:10:07.990
Because if you say[br]you need a job to have dignity,

0:10:08.014,0:10:09.458
which many people say,

0:10:09.482,0:10:12.299
the second you say that,[br]you say to all the parents,

0:10:12.323,0:10:14.768
and all the teachers[br]and all the caregivers

0:10:14.792,0:10:15.966
that all of a sudden,

0:10:15.990,0:10:18.537
because they're not being paid[br]for what they're doing,

0:10:18.561,0:10:20.854
it somehow lacks this[br]essential human quality.

0:10:20.878,0:10:22.982
To me, that's the great[br]puzzle of our time --

0:10:23.006,0:10:26.117
can we figure out how to provide[br]that stability throughout life,

0:10:26.141,0:10:28.674
and then can we figure out[br]how to create an inclusive,

0:10:28.698,0:10:32.965
not just racially, gender,[br]but multigenerationally inclusive,

0:10:32.989,0:10:37.206
I mean, every different human experience

0:10:37.230,0:10:41.095
included in this way of understanding[br]how we can be needed by one another.

0:10:41.119,0:10:42.485
BF: Thank you.[br]RB: Thank you.

0:10:42.509,0:10:44.706
BF: Thank you very much[br]for your participation.

0:10:44.730,0:10:45.880
(Applause)