[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:00.00,0:00:02.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The world is changing
Dialogue: 0,0:00:02.00,0:00:05.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with really remarkable speed.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:05.00,0:00:07.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you look at the chart at the top here,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:07.00,0:00:09.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you'll see that in 2025,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:09.00,0:00:11.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,these Goldman Sachs projections
Dialogue: 0,0:00:11.00,0:00:13.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,suggest that the Chinese economy
Dialogue: 0,0:00:13.00,0:00:16.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,will be almost the same size as the American economy.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:16.00,0:00:19.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And if you look at the chart
Dialogue: 0,0:00:19.00,0:00:21.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for 2050,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:21.00,0:00:24.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's projected that the Chinese economy
Dialogue: 0,0:00:24.00,0:00:27.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,will be twice the size of the American economy,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:27.00,0:00:29.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the Indian economy will be almost the same size
Dialogue: 0,0:00:29.00,0:00:32.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as the American economy.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:32.00,0:00:34.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And we should bear in mind here
Dialogue: 0,0:00:34.00,0:00:36.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that these projections were drawn up
Dialogue: 0,0:00:36.00,0:00:39.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,before the Western financial crisis.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:39.00,0:00:41.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A couple of weeks ago,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:41.00,0:00:43.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I was looking at the latest projection
Dialogue: 0,0:00:43.00,0:00:45.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by BNP Paribas
Dialogue: 0,0:00:45.00,0:00:48.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for when China
Dialogue: 0,0:00:48.00,0:00:50.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,will have a larger economy
Dialogue: 0,0:00:50.00,0:00:52.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than the United States.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:52.00,0:00:56.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Goldman Sachs projected 2027.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:56.00,0:00:59.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The post-crisis projection
Dialogue: 0,0:00:59.00,0:01:02.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is 2020.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:02.00,0:01:04.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's just a decade away.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:04.00,0:01:08.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,China is going to change the world
Dialogue: 0,0:01:08.00,0:01:11.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in two fundamental respects.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:11.00,0:01:13.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,First of all,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:13.00,0:01:15.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's a huge developing country
Dialogue: 0,0:01:15.00,0:01:19.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with a population of 1.3 billion people,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:19.00,0:01:22.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which has been growing for over 30 years
Dialogue: 0,0:01:22.00,0:01:24.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at around 10 percent a year.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:24.00,0:01:26.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And within a decade,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:26.00,0:01:30.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it will have the largest economy in the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:30.00,0:01:33.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Never before in the modern era
Dialogue: 0,0:01:33.00,0:01:36.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has the largest economy in the world
Dialogue: 0,0:01:36.00,0:01:38.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,been that of a developing country,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:38.00,0:01:41.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,rather than a developed country.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:42.00,0:01:44.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Secondly,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:44.00,0:01:46.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for the first time in the modern era,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:46.00,0:01:48.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the dominant country in the world --
Dialogue: 0,0:01:48.00,0:01:51.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which I think is what China will become --
Dialogue: 0,0:01:51.00,0:01:54.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,will be not from the West
Dialogue: 0,0:01:54.00,0:01:58.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and from very, very different civilizational roots.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:58.00,0:02:02.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, I know it's a widespread assumption in the West
Dialogue: 0,0:02:02.00,0:02:05.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that as countries modernize,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:05.00,0:02:07.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they also westernize.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:07.00,0:02:09.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is an illusion.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:09.00,0:02:11.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's an assumption that modernity
Dialogue: 0,0:02:11.00,0:02:14.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is a product simply of competition, markets and technology.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:14.00,0:02:16.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It is not. It is also shaped equally
Dialogue: 0,0:02:16.00,0:02:18.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by history and culture.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:18.00,0:02:21.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,China is not like the West,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:21.00,0:02:24.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it will not become like the West.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:24.00,0:02:26.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It will remain in very fundamental respects
Dialogue: 0,0:02:26.00,0:02:28.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,very different.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:28.00,0:02:31.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now the big question here is obviously,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:31.00,0:02:33.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how do we make sense of China?
Dialogue: 0,0:02:33.00,0:02:35.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How do we try to understand what China is?
Dialogue: 0,0:02:35.00,0:02:38.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the problem we have in the West at the moment, by and large,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:38.00,0:02:40.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that the conventional approach
Dialogue: 0,0:02:40.00,0:02:42.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that we understand it really in Western terms,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:42.00,0:02:45.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,using Western ideas.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:45.00,0:02:47.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We can't.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:47.00,0:02:49.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now I want to offer you
Dialogue: 0,0:02:49.00,0:02:51.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,three building blocks
Dialogue: 0,0:02:51.00,0:02:54.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for trying to understand what China is like,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:54.00,0:02:56.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,just as a beginning.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:56.00,0:02:58.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The first is this:
Dialogue: 0,0:02:58.00,0:03:01.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that China is not really a nation-state.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:01.00,0:03:03.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Okay, it's called itself a nation-state
Dialogue: 0,0:03:03.00,0:03:05.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for the last hundred years,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:05.00,0:03:07.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but everyone who knows anything about China
Dialogue: 0,0:03:07.00,0:03:09.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,knows it's a lot older than this.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:09.00,0:03:12.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This was what China looked like with the victory of the Qin Dynasty
Dialogue: 0,0:03:12.00,0:03:15.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in 221 B.C. at the end of the warring-state period --
Dialogue: 0,0:03:15.00,0:03:17.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the birth of modern China.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:17.00,0:03:20.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And you can see it against the boundaries of modern China.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:20.00,0:03:22.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Or immediately afterward, the Han Dynasty,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:22.00,0:03:24.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,still 2,000 years ago.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:24.00,0:03:26.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And you can see already it occupies
Dialogue: 0,0:03:26.00,0:03:28.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,most of what we now know as Eastern China,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:28.00,0:03:31.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is where the vast majority of Chinese lived then
Dialogue: 0,0:03:31.00,0:03:33.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and live now.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:33.00,0:03:35.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now what is extraordinary about this
Dialogue: 0,0:03:35.00,0:03:38.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is, what gives China its sense of being China,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:38.00,0:03:41.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what gives the Chinese
Dialogue: 0,0:03:41.00,0:03:44.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the sense of what it is to be Chinese,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:44.00,0:03:46.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,comes not from the last hundred years,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:46.00,0:03:48.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not from the nation-state period,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:48.00,0:03:51.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is what happened in the West,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:51.00,0:03:53.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but from the period, if you like,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:53.00,0:03:55.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of the civilization-state.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:55.00,0:03:58.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm thinking here, for example,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:58.00,0:04:01.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of customs like ancestral worship,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:01.00,0:04:04.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of a very distinctive notion of the state,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:04.00,0:04:07.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,likewise, a very distinctive notion of the family,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:07.00,0:04:09.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,social relationships like guanxi,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:09.00,0:04:11.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Confucian values and so on.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:11.00,0:04:13.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These are all things that come
Dialogue: 0,0:04:13.00,0:04:16.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from the period of the civilization-state.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:16.00,0:04:19.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In other words, China, unlike the Western states and most countries in the world,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:19.00,0:04:22.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is shaped by its sense of civilization,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:22.00,0:04:24.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,its existence as a civilization-state,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:24.00,0:04:26.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,rather than as a nation-state.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:26.00,0:04:29.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And there's one other thing to add to this, and that is this:
Dialogue: 0,0:04:29.00,0:04:31.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Of course we know China's big, huge,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:31.00,0:04:34.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,demographically and geographically,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:34.00,0:04:37.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with a population of 1.3 billion people.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:37.00,0:04:40.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What we often aren't really aware of
Dialogue: 0,0:04:40.00,0:04:42.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is the fact
Dialogue: 0,0:04:42.00,0:04:44.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that China is extremely diverse
Dialogue: 0,0:04:44.00,0:04:46.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and very pluralistic,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:46.00,0:04:48.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and in many ways very decentralized.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:48.00,0:04:51.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You can't run a place on this scale simply from Beijing,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:51.00,0:04:54.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,even though we think this to be the case.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:54.00,0:04:57.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's never been the case.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:58.00,0:05:00.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So this is China, a civilization-state,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:00.00,0:05:02.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,rather than a nation-state.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:02.00,0:05:04.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And what does it mean?
Dialogue: 0,0:05:04.00,0:05:06.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, I think it has all sorts of profound implications.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:06.00,0:05:08.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'll give you two quick ones.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:08.00,0:05:10.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The first is that
Dialogue: 0,0:05:10.00,0:05:14.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the most important political value for the Chinese
Dialogue: 0,0:05:14.00,0:05:16.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is unity,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:16.00,0:05:18.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is the maintenance
Dialogue: 0,0:05:18.00,0:05:20.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of Chinese civilization.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:20.00,0:05:23.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You know, 2,000 years ago, Europe:
Dialogue: 0,0:05:23.00,0:05:26.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,breakdown -- the fragmentation of the Holy Roman Empire.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:26.00,0:05:29.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It divided, and it's remained divided ever since.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:29.00,0:05:31.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,China, over the same time period,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:31.00,0:05:33.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,went in exactly the opposite direction,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:33.00,0:05:36.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,very painfully holding this huge civilization,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:36.00,0:05:39.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,civilization-state, together.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:39.00,0:05:41.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The second
Dialogue: 0,0:05:41.00,0:05:43.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is maybe more prosaic,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:43.00,0:05:45.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is Hong Kong.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:45.00,0:05:48.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Do you remember the handover of Hong Kong
Dialogue: 0,0:05:48.00,0:05:50.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by Britain to China in 1997?
Dialogue: 0,0:05:50.00,0:05:52.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You may remember
Dialogue: 0,0:05:52.00,0:05:54.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what the Chinese constitutional proposition was.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:54.00,0:05:56.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One country, two systems.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:56.00,0:05:58.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I'll lay a wager
Dialogue: 0,0:05:58.00,0:06:00.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that barely anyone in the West believed them.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:00.00,0:06:02.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Window dressing.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:02.00,0:06:04.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When China gets its hands on Hong Kong,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:04.00,0:06:06.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that won't be the case."
Dialogue: 0,0:06:06.00,0:06:08.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thirteen years on,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:08.00,0:06:10.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the political and legal system in Hong Kong
Dialogue: 0,0:06:10.00,0:06:13.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is as different now as it was in 1997.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:13.00,0:06:16.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We were wrong. Why were we wrong?
Dialogue: 0,0:06:16.00,0:06:19.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We were wrong because we thought, naturally enough,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:19.00,0:06:21.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in nation-state ways.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:21.00,0:06:23.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Think of German unification, 1990.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:23.00,0:06:25.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What happened?
Dialogue: 0,0:06:25.00,0:06:27.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, basically the East was swallowed by the West.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:27.00,0:06:29.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One nation, one system.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:29.00,0:06:32.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That is the nation-state mentality.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:32.00,0:06:35.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But you can't run a country like China,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:35.00,0:06:37.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a civilization-state,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:37.00,0:06:40.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on the basis of one civilization, one system.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:40.00,0:06:42.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It doesn't work.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:42.00,0:06:45.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So actually the response of China
Dialogue: 0,0:06:45.00,0:06:47.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to the question of Hong Kong --
Dialogue: 0,0:06:47.00,0:06:49.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as it will be to the question of Taiwan --
Dialogue: 0,0:06:49.00,0:06:51.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was a natural response:
Dialogue: 0,0:06:51.00,0:06:54.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,one civilization, many systems.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:54.00,0:06:56.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let me offer you another building block
Dialogue: 0,0:06:56.00,0:06:58.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to try and understand China --
Dialogue: 0,0:06:58.00,0:07:01.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,maybe not sort of a comfortable one.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:01.00,0:07:03.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The Chinese have a very, very different
Dialogue: 0,0:07:03.00,0:07:05.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,conception of race
Dialogue: 0,0:07:05.00,0:07:08.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to most other countries.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:08.00,0:07:10.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Do you know,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:10.00,0:07:13.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of the 1.3 billion Chinese,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:13.00,0:07:15.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,over 90 percent of them
Dialogue: 0,0:07:15.00,0:07:18.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,think they belong to the same race,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:18.00,0:07:20.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the Han?
Dialogue: 0,0:07:20.00,0:07:22.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, this is completely different
Dialogue: 0,0:07:22.00,0:07:25.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from the world's [other] most populous countries.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:25.00,0:07:27.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,India, the United States,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:27.00,0:07:30.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Indonesia, Brazil --
Dialogue: 0,0:07:30.00,0:07:33.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,all of them are multiracial.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:33.00,0:07:36.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The Chinese don't feel like that.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:36.00,0:07:38.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,China is only multiracial
Dialogue: 0,0:07:38.00,0:07:41.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,really at the margins.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:41.00,0:07:43.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So the question is, why?
Dialogue: 0,0:07:43.00,0:07:45.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well the reason, I think, essentially
Dialogue: 0,0:07:45.00,0:07:48.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is, again, back to the civilization-state.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:48.00,0:07:51.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A history of at least 2,000 years,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:51.00,0:07:53.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a history of conquest, occupation,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:53.00,0:07:55.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,absorption, assimilation and so on,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:55.00,0:07:57.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,led to the process by which,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:57.00,0:08:00.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,over time, this notion of the Han emerged --
Dialogue: 0,0:08:00.00,0:08:02.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of course, nurtured
Dialogue: 0,0:08:02.00,0:08:05.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by a growing and very powerful sense
Dialogue: 0,0:08:05.00,0:08:08.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of cultural identity.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:08.00,0:08:11.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now the great advantage of this historical experience
Dialogue: 0,0:08:11.00,0:08:15.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has been that, without the Han,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:15.00,0:08:17.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,China could never have held together.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:17.00,0:08:20.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The Han identity has been the cement
Dialogue: 0,0:08:20.00,0:08:23.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which has held this country together.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:23.00,0:08:25.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The great disadvantage of it
Dialogue: 0,0:08:25.00,0:08:27.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that the Han have a very weak conception
Dialogue: 0,0:08:27.00,0:08:29.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of cultural difference.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:29.00,0:08:32.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They really believe
Dialogue: 0,0:08:32.00,0:08:34.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in their own superiority,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:34.00,0:08:36.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they are disrespectful
Dialogue: 0,0:08:36.00,0:08:38.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of those who are not.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:38.00,0:08:40.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Hence their attitude, for example,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:40.00,0:08:43.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to the Uyghurs and to the Tibetans.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:44.00,0:08:46.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Or let me give you my third building block,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:46.00,0:08:48.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the Chinese state.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:48.00,0:08:50.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now the relationship
Dialogue: 0,0:08:50.00,0:08:53.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,between the state and society in China
Dialogue: 0,0:08:53.00,0:08:56.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is very different from that in the West.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:57.00,0:08:59.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now we in the West
Dialogue: 0,0:08:59.00,0:09:01.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,overwhelmingly seem to think -- in these days at least --
Dialogue: 0,0:09:01.00,0:09:05.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that the authority and legitimacy of the state
Dialogue: 0,0:09:05.00,0:09:08.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is a function of democracy.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:08.00,0:09:10.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The problem with this proposition
Dialogue: 0,0:09:10.00,0:09:14.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that the Chinese state
Dialogue: 0,0:09:14.00,0:09:16.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,enjoys more legitimacy
Dialogue: 0,0:09:16.00,0:09:18.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and more authority
Dialogue: 0,0:09:18.00,0:09:21.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,amongst the Chinese
Dialogue: 0,0:09:21.00,0:09:23.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than is true
Dialogue: 0,0:09:23.00,0:09:26.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with any Western state.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:27.00,0:09:29.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the reason for this
Dialogue: 0,0:09:29.00,0:09:31.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is because --
Dialogue: 0,0:09:31.00,0:09:33.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,well, there are two reasons, I think.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:33.00,0:09:35.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it's obviously got nothing to do with democracy,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:35.00,0:09:38.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because in our terms the Chinese certainly don't have a democracy.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:38.00,0:09:40.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the reason for this is,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:40.00,0:09:43.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,firstly, because the state in China
Dialogue: 0,0:09:43.00,0:09:46.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is given a very special --
Dialogue: 0,0:09:46.00,0:09:48.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it enjoys a very special significance
Dialogue: 0,0:09:48.00,0:09:50.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as the representative,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:50.00,0:09:53.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the embodiment and the guardian
Dialogue: 0,0:09:53.00,0:09:55.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of Chinese civilization,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:55.00,0:09:58.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of the civilization-state.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:58.00,0:10:00.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is as close as China gets
Dialogue: 0,0:10:00.00,0:10:03.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to a kind of spiritual role.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:04.00,0:10:06.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the second reason is because,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:06.00,0:10:08.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whereas in Europe
Dialogue: 0,0:10:08.00,0:10:10.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and North America,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:10.00,0:10:13.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the state's power is continuously challenged --
Dialogue: 0,0:10:13.00,0:10:15.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I mean in the European tradition,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:15.00,0:10:17.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,historically against the church,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:17.00,0:10:19.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,against other sectors of the aristocracy,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:19.00,0:10:21.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,against merchants and so on --
Dialogue: 0,0:10:21.00,0:10:23.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for 1,000 years,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:23.00,0:10:25.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the power of the Chinese state
Dialogue: 0,0:10:25.00,0:10:27.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has not been challenged.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:27.00,0:10:30.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's had no serious rivals.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:31.00,0:10:33.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So you can see
Dialogue: 0,0:10:33.00,0:10:37.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that the way in which power has been constructed in China
Dialogue: 0,0:10:37.00,0:10:39.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is very different from our experience
Dialogue: 0,0:10:39.00,0:10:42.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in Western history.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:42.00,0:10:44.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The result, by the way,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:44.00,0:10:48.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that the Chinese have a very different view of the state.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:49.00,0:10:52.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Whereas we tend to view it as an intruder,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:52.00,0:10:55.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a stranger,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:55.00,0:10:57.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,certainly an organ
Dialogue: 0,0:10:57.00,0:11:00.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whose powers need to be limited
Dialogue: 0,0:11:00.00,0:11:02.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or defined and constrained,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:02.00,0:11:04.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the Chinese don't see the state like that at all.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:04.00,0:11:07.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The Chinese view the state
Dialogue: 0,0:11:07.00,0:11:10.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as an intimate -- not just as an intimate actually,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:10.00,0:11:12.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as a member of the family --
Dialogue: 0,0:11:12.00,0:11:14.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not just in fact as a member of the family,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:14.00,0:11:16.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but as the head of the family,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:16.00,0:11:18.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the patriarch of the family.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:18.00,0:11:21.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is the Chinese view of the state --
Dialogue: 0,0:11:21.00,0:11:23.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,very, very different to ours.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:23.00,0:11:26.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's embedded in society in a different kind of way
Dialogue: 0,0:11:26.00,0:11:28.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to what is the case
Dialogue: 0,0:11:28.00,0:11:30.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the West.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:30.00,0:11:33.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I would suggest to you that actually what we are dealing with here,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:33.00,0:11:36.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the Chinese context,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:36.00,0:11:38.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is a new kind of paradigm,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:38.00,0:11:40.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is different from anything
Dialogue: 0,0:11:40.00,0:11:43.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we've had to think about in the past.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:44.00,0:11:47.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Know that China believes in the market and the state.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:47.00,0:11:49.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I mean, Adam Smith,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:49.00,0:11:52.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,already writing in the late 18th century, said,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:52.00,0:11:54.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"The Chinese market is larger and more developed
Dialogue: 0,0:11:54.00,0:11:56.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and more sophisticated
Dialogue: 0,0:11:56.00,0:11:58.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than anything in Europe."
Dialogue: 0,0:11:58.00,0:12:00.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And, apart from the Mao period,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:00.00,0:12:02.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that has remained more or less the case ever since.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:02.00,0:12:04.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But this is combined
Dialogue: 0,0:12:04.00,0:12:08.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with an extremely strong and ubiquitous state.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:08.00,0:12:10.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The state is everywhere in China.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:10.00,0:12:12.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I mean, it's leading firms --
Dialogue: 0,0:12:12.00,0:12:15.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,many of them are still publicly owned.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:15.00,0:12:18.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Private firms, however large they are, like Lenovo,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:18.00,0:12:20.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,depend in many ways on state patronage.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:20.00,0:12:22.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Targets for the economy and so on
Dialogue: 0,0:12:22.00,0:12:24.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are set by the state.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:24.00,0:12:26.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the state, of course, its authority flows into lots of other areas --
Dialogue: 0,0:12:26.00,0:12:28.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as we are familiar with --
Dialogue: 0,0:12:28.00,0:12:30.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with something like the one-child policy.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:30.00,0:12:33.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Moreover, this is a very old state tradition,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:33.00,0:12:35.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a very old tradition of statecraft.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:35.00,0:12:38.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I mean, if you want an illustration of this,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:38.00,0:12:40.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the Great Wall is one.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:40.00,0:12:42.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But this is another, this is the Grand Canal,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:42.00,0:12:44.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which was constructed in the first instance
Dialogue: 0,0:12:44.00,0:12:46.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the fifth century B.C.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:46.00,0:12:48.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and was finally completed
Dialogue: 0,0:12:48.00,0:12:50.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the seventh century A.D.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:50.00,0:12:54.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It went for 1,114 miles,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:54.00,0:12:56.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,linking Beijing
Dialogue: 0,0:12:56.00,0:12:59.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with Hangzhou and Shanghai.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:59.00,0:13:01.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So there's a long history
Dialogue: 0,0:13:01.00,0:13:04.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of extraordinary state infrastructural projects
Dialogue: 0,0:13:04.00,0:13:06.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in China,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:06.00,0:13:09.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which I suppose helps us to explain what we see today,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:09.00,0:13:11.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is something like the Three Gorges Dam
Dialogue: 0,0:13:11.00,0:13:13.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and many other expressions
Dialogue: 0,0:13:13.00,0:13:15.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of state competence
Dialogue: 0,0:13:15.00,0:13:17.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,within China.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:17.00,0:13:20.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So there we have three building blocks
Dialogue: 0,0:13:20.00,0:13:23.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for trying to understand the difference that is China --
Dialogue: 0,0:13:23.00,0:13:26.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the civilization-state,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:26.00,0:13:28.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the notion of race
Dialogue: 0,0:13:28.00,0:13:30.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the nature of the state
Dialogue: 0,0:13:30.00,0:13:33.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and its relationship to society.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:33.00,0:13:36.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And yet we still insist, by and large,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:36.00,0:13:40.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in thinking that we can understand China
Dialogue: 0,0:13:40.00,0:13:43.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by simply drawing on Western experience,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:43.00,0:13:46.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,looking at it through Western eyes,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:46.00,0:13:48.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,using Western concepts.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:48.00,0:13:50.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you want to know why
Dialogue: 0,0:13:50.00,0:13:53.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we unerringly seem to get China wrong --
Dialogue: 0,0:13:53.00,0:13:56.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,our predictions about what's going to happen to China are incorrect --
Dialogue: 0,0:13:56.00,0:14:00.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this is the reason.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:00.00,0:14:02.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Unfortunately, I think,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:02.00,0:14:05.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I have to say that I think
Dialogue: 0,0:14:05.00,0:14:07.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,attitude towards China
Dialogue: 0,0:14:07.00,0:14:10.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that of a kind of little Westerner mentality.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:10.00,0:14:12.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's kind of arrogant.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:12.00,0:14:14.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's arrogant in the sense
Dialogue: 0,0:14:14.00,0:14:16.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we think that we are best,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:16.00,0:14:19.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and therefore we have the universal measure.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:20.00,0:14:22.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And secondly, it's ignorant.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:22.00,0:14:25.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We refuse to really address
Dialogue: 0,0:14:25.00,0:14:27.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the issue of difference.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:27.00,0:14:29.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You know, there's a very interesting passage
Dialogue: 0,0:14:29.00,0:14:32.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in a book by Paul Cohen, the American historian.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:32.00,0:14:35.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And Paul Cohen argues
Dialogue: 0,0:14:35.00,0:14:39.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that the West thinks of itself
Dialogue: 0,0:14:39.00,0:14:41.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as probably the most cosmopolitan
Dialogue: 0,0:14:41.00,0:14:43.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of all cultures.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:43.00,0:14:45.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But it's not.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:45.00,0:14:47.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In many ways,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:47.00,0:14:49.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's the most parochial,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:49.00,0:14:52.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because for 200 years,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:52.00,0:14:55.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the West has been so dominant in the world
Dialogue: 0,0:14:55.00,0:14:57.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that it's not really needed
Dialogue: 0,0:14:57.00,0:15:00.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to understand other cultures,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:00.00,0:15:02.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,other civilizations.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:02.00,0:15:04.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because, at the end of the day,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:04.00,0:15:07.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it could, if necessary by force,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:07.00,0:15:09.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,get its own way.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:09.00,0:15:11.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Whereas those cultures --
Dialogue: 0,0:15:11.00,0:15:14.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,virtually the rest of the world, in fact,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:14.00,0:15:17.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which have been in a far weaker position, vis-a-vis the West --
Dialogue: 0,0:15:17.00,0:15:20.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,have been thereby forced to understand the West,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:20.00,0:15:23.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because of the West's presence in those societies.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:23.00,0:15:26.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And therefore, they are, as a result,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:26.00,0:15:29.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,more cosmopolitan in many ways than the West.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:29.00,0:15:31.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I mean, take the question of East Asia.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:31.00,0:15:34.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,East Asia: Japan, Korea, China, etc. --
Dialogue: 0,0:15:34.00,0:15:36.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a third of the world's population lives there.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:36.00,0:15:38.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now the largest economic region in the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:38.00,0:15:40.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I'll tell you now,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:40.00,0:15:42.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that East Asianers, people from East Asia,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:42.00,0:15:44.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are far more knowledgeable
Dialogue: 0,0:15:44.00,0:15:46.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about the West
Dialogue: 0,0:15:46.00,0:15:50.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than the West is about East Asia.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:50.00,0:15:53.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now this point is very germane, I'm afraid,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:53.00,0:15:55.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to the present.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:55.00,0:15:58.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because what's happening? Back to that chart at the beginning,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:58.00,0:16:00.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the Goldman Sachs chart.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:00.00,0:16:02.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What is happening
Dialogue: 0,0:16:02.00,0:16:05.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that, very rapidly in historical terms,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:05.00,0:16:08.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the world is being driven
Dialogue: 0,0:16:08.00,0:16:10.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and shaped,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:10.00,0:16:12.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not by the old developed countries,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:12.00,0:16:14.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but by the developing world.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:14.00,0:16:16.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We've seen this
Dialogue: 0,0:16:16.00,0:16:18.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in terms of the G20
Dialogue: 0,0:16:18.00,0:16:21.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,usurping very rapidly the position of the G7,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:21.00,0:16:24.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or the G8.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:25.00,0:16:28.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And there are two consequences of this.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:28.00,0:16:30.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,First, the West
Dialogue: 0,0:16:30.00,0:16:32.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is rapidly losing
Dialogue: 0,0:16:32.00,0:16:34.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,its influence in the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:34.00,0:16:37.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There was a dramatic illustration of this actually a year ago --
Dialogue: 0,0:16:37.00,0:16:39.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Copenhagen, climate change conference.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:39.00,0:16:41.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Europe was not at the final negotiating table.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:41.00,0:16:43.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When did that last happen?
Dialogue: 0,0:16:43.00,0:16:46.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I would wager it was probably about 200 years ago.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:46.00,0:16:49.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that is what is going to happen in the future.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:49.00,0:16:51.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the second implication
Dialogue: 0,0:16:51.00,0:16:54.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that the world will inevitably, as a consequence,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:54.00,0:16:58.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,become increasingly unfamiliar to us,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:58.00,0:17:01.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because it'll be shaped by cultures and experiences and histories
Dialogue: 0,0:17:01.00,0:17:04.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we are not really familiar with,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:04.00,0:17:06.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or conversant with.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:06.00,0:17:08.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And at last, I'm afraid -- take Europe;
Dialogue: 0,0:17:08.00,0:17:10.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,America is slightly different --
Dialogue: 0,0:17:10.00,0:17:13.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but Europeans by and large, I have to say,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:13.00,0:17:16.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are ignorant,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:16.00,0:17:18.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are unaware
Dialogue: 0,0:17:18.00,0:17:21.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about the way the world is changing.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:21.00,0:17:24.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Some people -- I've got an English friend in China,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:24.00,0:17:27.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and he said, "The continent is sleepwalking into oblivion."
Dialogue: 0,0:17:29.00,0:17:31.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, maybe that's true,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:31.00,0:17:33.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,maybe that's an exaggeration.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:33.00,0:17:36.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But there's another problem which goes along with this --
Dialogue: 0,0:17:36.00,0:17:39.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that Europe is increasingly out of touch with the world --
Dialogue: 0,0:17:39.00,0:17:42.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that is a sort of
Dialogue: 0,0:17:42.00,0:17:44.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,loss of a sense of the future.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:44.00,0:17:47.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I mean, Europe once, of course, once commanded the future
Dialogue: 0,0:17:47.00,0:17:49.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in its confidence.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:49.00,0:17:52.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Take the 19th century, for example.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:52.00,0:17:55.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But this, alas, is no longer true.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:55.00,0:17:58.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you want to feel the future, if you want to taste the future,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:58.00,0:18:01.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,try China -- there's old Confucius.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:01.00,0:18:03.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is a railway station
Dialogue: 0,0:18:03.00,0:18:05.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the likes of which you've never seen before.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:05.00,0:18:07.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It doesn't even look like a railway station.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:07.00,0:18:09.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is the new Guangzhou railway station
Dialogue: 0,0:18:09.00,0:18:11.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for the high-speed trains.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:11.00,0:18:13.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,China already has a bigger network
Dialogue: 0,0:18:13.00,0:18:15.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than any other country in the world
Dialogue: 0,0:18:15.00,0:18:19.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and will soon have more than all the rest of the world put together.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:19.00,0:18:21.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Or take this: now this is an idea,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:21.00,0:18:24.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but it's an idea to be tried out shortly
Dialogue: 0,0:18:24.00,0:18:26.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in a suburb of Beijing.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:26.00,0:18:29.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Here you have a megabus,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:29.00,0:18:32.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on the upper deck carries about 2,000 people.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:32.00,0:18:34.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It travels on rails
Dialogue: 0,0:18:34.00,0:18:36.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,down a suburban road,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:36.00,0:18:39.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the cars travel underneath it.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:39.00,0:18:42.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it does speeds of up to about 100 miles an hour.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:42.00,0:18:45.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now this is the way things are going to move,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:45.00,0:18:47.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because China has a very specific problem,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:47.00,0:18:49.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is different from Europe
Dialogue: 0,0:18:49.00,0:18:51.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and different from the United States:
Dialogue: 0,0:18:51.00,0:18:54.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,China has huge numbers of people and no space.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:54.00,0:18:56.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So this is a solution to a situation
Dialogue: 0,0:18:56.00,0:18:58.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where China's going to have
Dialogue: 0,0:18:58.00,0:19:00.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,many, many, many cities
Dialogue: 0,0:19:00.00,0:19:02.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,over 20 million people.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:02.00,0:19:05.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Okay, so how would I like to finish?
Dialogue: 0,0:19:05.00,0:19:08.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, what should our attitude be
Dialogue: 0,0:19:08.00,0:19:11.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,towards this world
Dialogue: 0,0:19:11.00,0:19:13.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we see
Dialogue: 0,0:19:13.00,0:19:15.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,very rapidly developing
Dialogue: 0,0:19:15.00,0:19:17.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,before us?
Dialogue: 0,0:19:18.00,0:19:21.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think there will be good things about it and there will be bad things about it.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:21.00,0:19:23.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But I want to argue, above all,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:23.00,0:19:26.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a big-picture positive for this world.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:28.00,0:19:30.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For 200 years,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:30.00,0:19:36.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the world was essentially governed
Dialogue: 0,0:19:36.00,0:19:40.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by a fragment of the human population.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:40.00,0:19:44.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's what Europe and North America represented.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:44.00,0:19:46.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The arrival of countries
Dialogue: 0,0:19:46.00,0:19:48.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,like China and India --
Dialogue: 0,0:19:48.00,0:19:50.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,between them 38 percent of the world's population --
Dialogue: 0,0:19:50.00,0:19:53.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and others like Indonesia and Brazil and so on,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:56.00,0:19:59.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,represent the most important single act
Dialogue: 0,0:19:59.00,0:20:01.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of democratization
Dialogue: 0,0:20:01.00,0:20:03.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the last 200 years.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:03.00,0:20:05.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Civilizations and cultures,
Dialogue: 0,0:20:05.00,0:20:08.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which had been ignored, which had no voice,
Dialogue: 0,0:20:08.00,0:20:10.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which were not listened to, which were not known about,
Dialogue: 0,0:20:10.00,0:20:12.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,will have a different sort
Dialogue: 0,0:20:12.00,0:20:15.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of representation in this world.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:15.00,0:20:17.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As humanists, we must welcome, surely,
Dialogue: 0,0:20:17.00,0:20:19.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this transformation,
Dialogue: 0,0:20:19.00,0:20:21.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we will have to learn
Dialogue: 0,0:20:21.00,0:20:23.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about these civilizations.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:23.00,0:20:26.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This big ship here
Dialogue: 0,0:20:26.00,0:20:28.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was the one sailed in by Zheng He
Dialogue: 0,0:20:28.00,0:20:30.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the early 15th century
Dialogue: 0,0:20:30.00,0:20:32.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on his great voyages
Dialogue: 0,0:20:32.00,0:20:35.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,around the South China Sea, the East China Sea
Dialogue: 0,0:20:35.00,0:20:38.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and across the Indian Ocean to East Africa.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:38.00,0:20:42.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The little boat in front of it
Dialogue: 0,0:20:42.00,0:20:44.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was the one in which, 80 years later,
Dialogue: 0,0:20:44.00,0:20:47.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Christopher Columbus crossed the Atlantic.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:47.00,0:20:49.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:20:49.00,0:20:51.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Or, look carefully
Dialogue: 0,0:20:51.00,0:20:53.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at this silk scroll
Dialogue: 0,0:20:53.00,0:20:56.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,made by ZhuZhou
Dialogue: 0,0:20:56.00,0:20:59.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in 1368.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:59.00,0:21:01.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think they're playing golf.
Dialogue: 0,0:21:01.00,0:21:04.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Christ, the Chinese even invented golf.
Dialogue: 0,0:21:04.00,0:21:07.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Welcome to the future. Thank you.
Dialogue: 0,0:21:07.00,0:21:10.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)