[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:01.00,0:00:05.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm going to talk today about energy and climate.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:05.00,0:00:07.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that might seem a bit surprising because
Dialogue: 0,0:00:07.00,0:00:12.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,my full-time work at the Foundation is mostly about vaccines and seeds,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:12.00,0:00:15.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about the things that we need to invent and deliver
Dialogue: 0,0:00:15.00,0:00:20.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to help the poorest two billion live better lives.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:20.00,0:00:25.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But energy and climate are extremely important to these people --
Dialogue: 0,0:00:25.00,0:00:30.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in fact, more important than to anyone else on the planet.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:30.00,0:00:35.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The climate getting worse means that many years, their crops won't grow:
Dialogue: 0,0:00:35.00,0:00:38.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There will be too much rain, not enough rain,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:38.00,0:00:40.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,things will change in ways
Dialogue: 0,0:00:40.00,0:00:44.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that their fragile environment simply can't support.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:44.00,0:00:49.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that leads to starvation, it leads to uncertainty, it leads to unrest.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:49.00,0:00:53.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, the climate changes will be terrible for them.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:53.00,0:00:56.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Also, the price of energy is very important to them.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:56.00,0:00:59.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In fact, if you could pick just one thing to lower the price of,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:59.00,0:01:03.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to reduce poverty, by far you would pick energy.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:03.00,0:01:07.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, the price of energy has come down over time.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:07.00,0:01:13.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Really advanced civilization is based on advances in energy.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:13.00,0:01:17.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The coal revolution fueled the Industrial Revolution,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:17.00,0:01:23.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and, even in the 1900s we've seen a very rapid decline in the price of electricity,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:23.00,0:01:26.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that's why we have refrigerators, air-conditioning,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:26.00,0:01:30.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we can make modern materials and do so many things.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:30.00,0:01:37.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so, we're in a wonderful situation with electricity in the rich world.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:37.00,0:01:44.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But, as we make it cheaper -- and let's go for making it twice as cheap --
Dialogue: 0,0:01:44.00,0:01:46.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we need to meet a new constraint,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:46.00,0:01:50.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that constraint has to do with CO2.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:50.00,0:01:53.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CO2 is warming the planet,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:53.00,0:01:59.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the equation on CO2 is actually a very straightforward one.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:59.00,0:02:03.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you sum up the CO2 that gets emitted,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:03.00,0:02:06.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that leads to a temperature increase,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:06.00,0:02:10.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that temperature increase leads to some very negative effects:
Dialogue: 0,0:02:10.00,0:02:13.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the effects on the weather; perhaps worse, the indirect effects,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:13.00,0:02:18.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in that the natural ecosystems can't adjust to these rapid changes,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:18.00,0:02:21.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and so you get ecosystem collapses.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:21.00,0:02:24.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, the exact amount of how you map
Dialogue: 0,0:02:24.00,0:02:28.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from a certain increase of CO2 to what temperature will be
Dialogue: 0,0:02:28.00,0:02:30.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and where the positive feedbacks are,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:30.00,0:02:33.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there's some uncertainty there, but not very much.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:33.00,0:02:36.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And there's certainly uncertainty about how bad those effects will be,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:36.00,0:02:39.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but they will be extremely bad.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:39.00,0:02:41.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I asked the top scientists on this several times:
Dialogue: 0,0:02:41.00,0:02:44.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Do we really have to get down to near zero?
Dialogue: 0,0:02:44.00,0:02:47.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Can't we just cut it in half or a quarter?
Dialogue: 0,0:02:47.00,0:02:51.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the answer is that until we get near to zero,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:51.00,0:02:53.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the temperature will continue to rise.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:53.00,0:02:55.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so that's a big challenge.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:55.00,0:03:00.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's very different than saying "We're a twelve-foot-high truck trying to get under a ten-foot bridge,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:00.00,0:03:03.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we can just sort of squeeze under."
Dialogue: 0,0:03:03.00,0:03:07.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is something that has to get to zero.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:07.00,0:03:11.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, we put out a lot of carbon dioxide every year,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:11.00,0:03:13.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,over 26 billion tons.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:13.00,0:03:17.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For each American, it's about 20 tons;
Dialogue: 0,0:03:17.00,0:03:20.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for people in poor countries, it's less than one ton.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:20.00,0:03:24.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's an average of about five tons for everyone on the planet.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:24.00,0:03:26.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And, somehow, we have to make changes
Dialogue: 0,0:03:26.00,0:03:29.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that will bring that down to zero.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:29.00,0:03:31.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's been constantly going up.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:31.00,0:03:36.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's only various economic changes that have even flattened it at all,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:36.00,0:03:39.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so we have to go from rapidly rising
Dialogue: 0,0:03:39.00,0:03:42.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to falling, and falling all the way to zero.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:42.00,0:03:44.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This equation has four factors,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:44.00,0:03:46.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a little bit of multiplication:
Dialogue: 0,0:03:46.00,0:03:49.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, you've got a thing on the left, CO2, that you want to get to zero,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:49.00,0:03:53.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that's going to be based on the number of people,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:53.00,0:03:56.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the services each person's using on average,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:56.00,0:03:59.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the energy on average for each service,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:59.00,0:04:03.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the CO2 being put out per unit of energy.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:03.00,0:04:05.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, let's look at each one of these
Dialogue: 0,0:04:05.00,0:04:09.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and see how we can get this down to zero.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:09.00,0:04:13.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Probably, one of these numbers is going to have to get pretty near to zero.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:13.00,0:04:16.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now that's back from high school algebra,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:16.00,0:04:18.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but let's take a look.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:18.00,0:04:20.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,First, we've got population.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:20.00,0:04:23.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The world today has 6.8 billion people.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:23.00,0:04:25.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's headed up to about nine billion.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:25.00,0:04:29.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, if we do a really great job on new vaccines,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:29.00,0:04:31.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,health care, reproductive health services,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:31.00,0:04:35.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we could lower that by, perhaps, 10 or 15 percent,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:35.00,0:04:39.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but there we see an increase of about 1.3.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:39.00,0:04:42.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The second factor is the services we use.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:42.00,0:04:44.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This encompasses everything:
Dialogue: 0,0:04:44.00,0:04:48.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the food we eat, clothing, TV, heating.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:48.00,0:04:51.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These are very good things:
Dialogue: 0,0:04:51.00,0:04:54.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,getting rid of poverty means providing these services
Dialogue: 0,0:04:54.00,0:04:56.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to almost everyone on the planet.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:56.00,0:05:00.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it's a great thing for this number to go up.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:00.00,0:05:02.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In the rich world, perhaps the top one billion,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:02.00,0:05:04.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we probably could cut back and use less,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:04.00,0:05:08.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but every year, this number, on average, is going to go up,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:08.00,0:05:12.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and so, over all, that will more than double
Dialogue: 0,0:05:12.00,0:05:15.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the services delivered per person.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:15.00,0:05:17.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Here we have a very basic service:
Dialogue: 0,0:05:17.00,0:05:20.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Do you have lighting in your house to be able to read your homework?
Dialogue: 0,0:05:20.00,0:05:22.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And, in fact, these kids don't, so they're going out
Dialogue: 0,0:05:22.00,0:05:26.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and reading their school work under the street lamps.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:27.00,0:05:31.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, efficiency, E, the energy for each service,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:31.00,0:05:33.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,here finally we have some good news.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:33.00,0:05:35.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We have something that's not going up.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:35.00,0:05:38.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Through various inventions and new ways of doing lighting,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:38.00,0:05:43.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,through different types of cars, different ways of building buildings --
Dialogue: 0,0:05:43.00,0:05:46.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there are a lot of services where you can bring
Dialogue: 0,0:05:46.00,0:05:50.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the energy for that service down quite substantially.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:50.00,0:05:53.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Some individual services even bring it down by 90 percent.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:53.00,0:05:56.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There are other services like how we make fertilizer,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:56.00,0:05:58.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or how we do air transport,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:58.00,0:06:02.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where the rooms for improvement are far, far less.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:02.00,0:06:04.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so, overall here, if we're optimistic,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:04.00,0:06:11.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we may get a reduction of a factor of three to even, perhaps, a factor of six.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:11.00,0:06:14.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But for these first three factors now,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:14.00,0:06:19.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we've gone from 26 billion to, at best, maybe 13 billion tons,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:19.00,0:06:21.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that just won't cut it.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:21.00,0:06:23.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So let's look at this fourth factor --
Dialogue: 0,0:06:23.00,0:06:25.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this is going to be a key one --
Dialogue: 0,0:06:25.00,0:06:31.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and this is the amount of CO2 put out per each unit of energy.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:31.00,0:06:35.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so the question is: Can you actually get that to zero?
Dialogue: 0,0:06:35.00,0:06:37.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you burn coal, no.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:37.00,0:06:39.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you burn natural gas, no.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:39.00,0:06:42.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Almost every way we make electricity today,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:42.00,0:06:48.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,except for the emerging renewables and nuclear, puts out CO2.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:48.00,0:06:51.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so, what we're going to have to do at a global scale,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:51.00,0:06:54.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is create a new system.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:54.00,0:06:56.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so, we need energy miracles.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:56.00,0:07:00.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, when I use the term "miracle," I don't mean something that's impossible.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:00.00,0:07:05.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The microprocessor is a miracle. The personal computer is a miracle.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:05.00,0:07:08.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The Internet and its services are a miracle.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:08.00,0:07:13.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, the people here have participated in the creation of many miracles.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:13.00,0:07:15.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Usually, we don't have a deadline,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:15.00,0:07:17.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where you have to get the miracle by a certain date.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:17.00,0:07:21.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Usually, you just kind of stand by, and some come along, some don't.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:21.00,0:07:25.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is a case where we actually have to drive at full speed
Dialogue: 0,0:07:25.00,0:07:30.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and get a miracle in a pretty tight timeline.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:30.00,0:07:33.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, I thought, "How could I really capture this?
Dialogue: 0,0:07:33.00,0:07:35.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Is there some kind of natural illustration,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:35.00,0:07:40.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,some demonstration that would grab people's imagination here?"
Dialogue: 0,0:07:40.00,0:07:44.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I thought back to a year ago when I brought mosquitos,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:44.00,0:07:46.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and somehow people enjoyed that.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:46.00,0:07:48.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:07:48.00,0:07:51.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It really got them involved in the idea of,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:51.00,0:07:54.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you know, there are people who live with mosquitos.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:54.00,0:07:59.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, with energy, all I could come up with is this.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:59.00,0:08:02.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I decided that releasing fireflies
Dialogue: 0,0:08:02.00,0:08:06.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,would be my contribution to the environment here this year.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:06.00,0:08:09.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So here we have some natural fireflies.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:09.00,0:08:12.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm told they don't bite; in fact, they might not even leave that jar.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:12.00,0:08:15.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:08:15.00,0:08:20.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, there's all sorts of gimmicky solutions like that one,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:20.00,0:08:22.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but they don't really add up to much.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:22.00,0:08:26.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We need solutions -- either one or several --
Dialogue: 0,0:08:26.00,0:08:30.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that have unbelievable scale
Dialogue: 0,0:08:30.00,0:08:32.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and unbelievable reliability,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:32.00,0:08:35.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and, although there's many directions people are seeking,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:35.00,0:08:39.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I really only see five that can achieve the big numbers.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:39.00,0:08:44.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I've left out tide, geothermal, fusion, biofuels.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:44.00,0:08:46.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Those may make some contribution,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:46.00,0:08:48.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and if they can do better than I expect, so much the better,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:48.00,0:08:50.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but my key point here
Dialogue: 0,0:08:50.00,0:08:54.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that we're going to have to work on each of these five,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:54.00,0:08:58.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we can't give up any of them because they look daunting,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:58.00,0:09:02.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because they all have significant challenges.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:02.00,0:09:04.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let's look first at the burning fossil fuels,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:04.00,0:09:08.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,either burning coal or burning natural gas.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:08.00,0:09:11.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What you need to do there, seems like it might be simple, but it's not,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:11.00,0:09:17.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that's to take all the CO2, after you've burned it, going out the flue,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:17.00,0:09:20.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,pressurize it, create a liquid, put it somewhere,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:20.00,0:09:22.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and hope it stays there.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:22.00,0:09:26.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now we have some pilot things that do this at the 60 to 80 percent level,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:26.00,0:09:30.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but getting up to that full percentage, that will be very tricky,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:30.00,0:09:36.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and agreeing on where these CO2 quantities should be put will be hard,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:36.00,0:09:39.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but the toughest one here is this long-term issue.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:39.00,0:09:41.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Who's going to be sure?
Dialogue: 0,0:09:41.00,0:09:45.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Who's going to guarantee something that is literally billions of times larger
Dialogue: 0,0:09:45.00,0:09:49.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than any type of waste you think of in terms of nuclear or other things?
Dialogue: 0,0:09:49.00,0:09:52.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is a lot of volume.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:52.00,0:09:54.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So that's a tough one.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:54.00,0:09:56.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Next would be nuclear.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:56.00,0:09:59.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It also has three big problems:
Dialogue: 0,0:09:59.00,0:10:03.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Cost, particularly in highly regulated countries, is high;
Dialogue: 0,0:10:03.00,0:10:07.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the issue of the safety, really feeling good about nothing could go wrong,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:07.00,0:10:10.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that, even though you have these human operators,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:10.00,0:10:13.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that the fuel doesn't get used for weapons.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:13.00,0:10:15.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then what do you do with the waste?
Dialogue: 0,0:10:15.00,0:10:18.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And, although it's not very large, there are a lot of concerns about that.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:18.00,0:10:20.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,People need to feel good about it.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:20.00,0:10:25.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So three very tough problems that might be solvable,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:25.00,0:10:27.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and so, should be worked on.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:27.00,0:10:30.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The last three of the five, I've grouped together.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:30.00,0:10:34.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These are what people often refer to as the renewable sources.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:34.00,0:10:38.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And they actually -- although it's great they don't require fuel --
Dialogue: 0,0:10:38.00,0:10:40.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they have some disadvantages.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:40.00,0:10:46.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One is that the density of energy gathered in these technologies
Dialogue: 0,0:10:46.00,0:10:48.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is dramatically less than a power plant.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:48.00,0:10:52.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is energy farming, so you're talking about many square miles,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:52.00,0:10:57.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,thousands of time more area than you think of as a normal energy plant.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:57.00,0:11:00.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Also, these are intermittent sources.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:00.00,0:11:03.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The sun doesn't shine all day, it doesn't shine every day,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:03.00,0:11:06.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and, likewise, the wind doesn't blow all the time.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:06.00,0:11:08.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so, if you depend on these sources,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:08.00,0:11:11.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you have to have some way of getting the energy
Dialogue: 0,0:11:11.00,0:11:14.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,during those time periods that it's not available.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:14.00,0:11:17.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, we've got big cost challenges here,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:17.00,0:11:19.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we have transmission challenges:
Dialogue: 0,0:11:19.00,0:11:22.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for example, say this energy source is outside your country;
Dialogue: 0,0:11:22.00,0:11:24.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you not only need the technology,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:24.00,0:11:29.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but you have to deal with the risk of the energy coming from elsewhere.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:29.00,0:11:31.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And, finally, this storage problem.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:31.00,0:11:34.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And, to dimensionalize this, I went through and looked at
Dialogue: 0,0:11:34.00,0:11:37.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,all the types of batteries that get made --
Dialogue: 0,0:11:37.00,0:11:41.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for cars, for computers, for phones, for flashlights, for everything --
Dialogue: 0,0:11:41.00,0:11:46.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and compared that to the amount of electrical energy the world uses,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:46.00,0:11:50.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and what I found is that all the batteries we make now
Dialogue: 0,0:11:50.00,0:11:54.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,could store less than 10 minutes of all the energy.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:54.00,0:11:57.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so, in fact, we need a big breakthrough here,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:57.00,0:12:01.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,something that's going to be a factor of 100 better
Dialogue: 0,0:12:01.00,0:12:03.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than the approaches we have now.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:03.00,0:12:07.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's not impossible, but it's not a very easy thing.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:07.00,0:12:11.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, this shows up when you try to get the intermittent source
Dialogue: 0,0:12:11.00,0:12:15.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to be above, say, 20 to 30 percent of what you're using.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:15.00,0:12:17.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you're counting on it for 100 percent,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:17.00,0:12:22.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you need an incredible miracle battery.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:23.00,0:12:26.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, how we're going to go forward on this -- what's the right approach?
Dialogue: 0,0:12:26.00,0:12:30.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Is it a Manhattan Project? What's the thing that can get us there?
Dialogue: 0,0:12:30.00,0:12:35.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, we need lots of companies working on this, hundreds.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:35.00,0:12:38.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In each of these five paths, we need at least a hundred people.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:38.00,0:12:42.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And a lot of them, you'll look at and say, "They're crazy." That's good.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:42.00,0:12:45.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And, I think, here in the TED group,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:45.00,0:12:49.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we have many people who are already pursuing this.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:49.00,0:12:53.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Bill Gross has several companies, including one called eSolar
Dialogue: 0,0:12:53.00,0:12:55.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that has some great solar thermal technologies.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:55.00,0:12:59.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Vinod Khosla's investing in dozens of companies
Dialogue: 0,0:12:59.00,0:13:03.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that are doing great things and have interesting possibilities,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:03.00,0:13:05.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I'm trying to help back that.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:05.00,0:13:09.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Nathan Myhrvold and I actually are backing a company
Dialogue: 0,0:13:09.00,0:13:13.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that, perhaps surprisingly, is actually taking the nuclear approach.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:13.00,0:13:17.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There are some innovations in nuclear: modular, liquid.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:17.00,0:13:21.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And innovation really stopped in this industry quite some ago,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:21.00,0:13:26.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so the idea that there's some good ideas laying around is not all that surprising.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:26.00,0:13:32.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The idea of TerraPower is that, instead of burning a part of uranium --
Dialogue: 0,0:13:32.00,0:13:35.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the one percent, which is the U235 --
Dialogue: 0,0:13:35.00,0:13:40.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we decided, "Let's burn the 99 percent, the U238."
Dialogue: 0,0:13:40.00,0:13:42.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It is kind of a crazy idea.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:42.00,0:13:45.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In fact, people had talked about it for a long time,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:45.00,0:13:49.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but they could never simulate properly whether it would work or not,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:49.00,0:13:52.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and so it's through the advent of modern supercomputers
Dialogue: 0,0:13:52.00,0:13:54.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that now you can simulate and see that, yes,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:54.00,0:14:00.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with the right material's approach, this looks like it would work.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:00.00,0:14:03.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And, because you're burning that 99 percent,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:03.00,0:14:07.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you have greatly improved cost profile.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:07.00,0:14:11.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You actually burn up the waste, and you can actually use as fuel
Dialogue: 0,0:14:11.00,0:14:14.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,all the leftover waste from today's reactors.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:14.00,0:14:19.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, instead of worrying about them, you just take that. It's a great thing.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:19.00,0:14:23.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It breathes this uranium as it goes along, so it's kind of like a candle.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:23.00,0:14:27.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You can see it's a log there, often referred to as a traveling wave reactor.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:27.00,0:14:31.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In terms of fuel, this really solves the problem.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:31.00,0:14:34.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I've got a picture here of a place in Kentucky.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:34.00,0:14:36.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is the leftover, the 99 percent,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:36.00,0:14:38.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where they've taken out the part they burn now,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:38.00,0:14:40.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so it's called depleted uranium.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:40.00,0:14:43.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That would power the U.S. for hundreds of years.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:43.00,0:14:46.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And, simply by filtering seawater in an inexpensive process,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:46.00,0:14:51.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you'd have enough fuel for the entire lifetime of the rest of the planet.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:51.00,0:14:55.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, you know, it's got lots of challenges ahead,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:55.00,0:15:00.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but it is an example of the many hundreds and hundreds of ideas
Dialogue: 0,0:15:00.00,0:15:03.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we need to move forward.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:03.00,0:15:06.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So let's think: How should we measure ourselves?
Dialogue: 0,0:15:06.00,0:15:09.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What should our report card look like?
Dialogue: 0,0:15:09.00,0:15:12.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, let's go out to where we really need to get,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:12.00,0:15:14.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then look at the intermediate.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:14.00,0:15:19.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For 2050, you've heard many people talk about this 80 percent reduction.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:19.00,0:15:23.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That really is very important, that we get there.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:23.00,0:15:27.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that 20 percent will be used up by things going on in poor countries,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:27.00,0:15:29.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,still some agriculture,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:29.00,0:15:33.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,hopefully we will have cleaned up forestry, cement.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:33.00,0:15:36.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, to get to that 80 percent,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:36.00,0:15:40.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the developed countries, including countries like China,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:40.00,0:15:45.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,will have had to switch their electricity generation altogether.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:45.00,0:15:51.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, the other grade is: Are we deploying this zero-emission technology,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:51.00,0:15:53.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,have we deployed it in all the developed countries
Dialogue: 0,0:15:53.00,0:15:56.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we're in the process of getting it elsewhere?
Dialogue: 0,0:15:56.00,0:15:58.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's super important.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:58.00,0:16:02.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's a key element of making that report card.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:02.00,0:16:07.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, backing up from there, what should the 2020 report card look like?
Dialogue: 0,0:16:07.00,0:16:09.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, again, it should have the two elements.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:09.00,0:16:13.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We should go through these efficiency measures to start getting reductions:
Dialogue: 0,0:16:13.00,0:16:16.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The less we emit, the less that sum will be of CO2,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:16.00,0:16:18.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and, therefore, the less the temperature.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:18.00,0:16:21.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But in some ways, the grade we get there,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:21.00,0:16:25.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,doing things that don't get us all the way to the big reductions,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:25.00,0:16:29.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is only equally, or maybe even slightly less, important than the other,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:29.00,0:16:33.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is the piece of innovation on these breakthroughs.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:33.00,0:16:36.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These breakthroughs, we need to move those at full speed,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:36.00,0:16:39.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we can measure that in terms of companies,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:39.00,0:16:42.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,pilot projects, regulatory things that have been changed.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:42.00,0:16:45.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There's a lot of great books that have been written about this.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:45.00,0:16:48.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The Al Gore book, "Our Choice"
Dialogue: 0,0:16:48.00,0:16:51.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the David McKay book, "Sustainable Energy Without the Hot Air."
Dialogue: 0,0:16:51.00,0:16:54.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They really go through it and create a framework
Dialogue: 0,0:16:54.00,0:16:56.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that this can be discussed broadly,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:56.00,0:16:59.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because we need broad backing for this.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:59.00,0:17:01.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There's a lot that has to come together.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:01.00,0:17:03.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So this is a wish.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:03.00,0:17:07.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's a very concrete wish that we invent this technology.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:07.00,0:17:10.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you gave me only one wish for the next 50 years --
Dialogue: 0,0:17:10.00,0:17:12.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I could pick who's president,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:12.00,0:17:15.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I could pick a vaccine, which is something I love,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:15.00,0:17:17.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or I could pick that this thing
Dialogue: 0,0:17:17.00,0:17:21.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's half the cost with no CO2 gets invented --
Dialogue: 0,0:17:21.00,0:17:23.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this is the wish I would pick.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:23.00,0:17:25.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is the one with the greatest impact.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:25.00,0:17:27.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If we don't get this wish,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:27.00,0:17:31.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the division between the people who think short term and long term will be terrible,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:31.00,0:17:34.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,between the U.S. and China, between poor countries and rich,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:34.00,0:17:39.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and most of all the lives of those two billion will be far worse.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:39.00,0:17:41.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, what do we have to do?
Dialogue: 0,0:17:41.00,0:17:46.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What am I appealing to you to step forward and drive?
Dialogue: 0,0:17:46.00,0:17:49.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We need to go for more research funding.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:49.00,0:17:51.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When countries get together in places like Copenhagen,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:51.00,0:17:54.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they shouldn't just discuss the CO2.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:54.00,0:17:56.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They should discuss this innovation agenda,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:56.00,0:18:01.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you'd be stunned at the ridiculously low levels of spending
Dialogue: 0,0:18:01.00,0:18:03.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on these innovative approaches.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:03.00,0:18:07.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We do need the market incentives -- CO2 tax, cap and trade --
Dialogue: 0,0:18:07.00,0:18:10.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,something that gets that price signal out there.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:10.00,0:18:12.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We need to get the message out.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:12.00,0:18:15.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We need to have this dialogue be a more rational, more understandable dialogue,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:15.00,0:18:18.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,including the steps that the government takes.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:18.00,0:18:22.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is an important wish, but it is one I think we can achieve.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:22.00,0:18:24.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thank you.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:24.00,0:18:35.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)
Dialogue: 0,0:18:35.00,0:18:37.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thank you.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:37.00,0:18:39.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Chris Anderson: Thank you. Thank you.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:39.00,0:18:44.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)
Dialogue: 0,0:18:44.00,0:18:50.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thank you. So to understand more about TerraPower, right --
Dialogue: 0,0:18:50.00,0:18:55.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I mean, first of all, can you give a sense of what scale of investment this is?
Dialogue: 0,0:18:55.00,0:18:59.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Bil Gates: To actually do the software, buy the supercomputer,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:59.00,0:19:01.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,hire all the great scientists, which we've done,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:01.00,0:19:04.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's only tens of millions,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:04.00,0:19:07.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and even once we test our materials out in a Russian reactor
Dialogue: 0,0:19:07.00,0:19:11.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to make sure that our materials work properly,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:11.00,0:19:13.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then you'll only be up in the hundreds of millions.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:13.00,0:19:16.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The tough thing is building the pilot reactor;
Dialogue: 0,0:19:16.00,0:19:21.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,finding the several billion, finding the regulator, the location
Dialogue: 0,0:19:21.00,0:19:23.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that will actually build the first one of these.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:23.00,0:19:27.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Once you get the first one built, if it works as advertised,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:27.00,0:19:31.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then it's just clear as day, because the economics, the energy density,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:31.00,0:19:33.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are so different than nuclear as we know it.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:33.00,0:19:37.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: And so, to understand it right, this involves building deep into the ground
Dialogue: 0,0:19:37.00,0:19:41.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,almost like a vertical kind of column of nuclear fuel,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:41.00,0:19:43.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of this sort of spent uranium,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:43.00,0:19:46.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then the process starts at the top and kind of works down?
Dialogue: 0,0:19:46.00,0:19:49.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,BG: That's right. Today, you're always refueling the reactor,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:49.00,0:19:52.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so you have lots of people and lots of controls that can go wrong:
Dialogue: 0,0:19:52.00,0:19:55.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that thing where you're opening it up and moving things in and out,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:55.00,0:19:57.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's not good.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:57.00,0:20:02.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, if you have very cheap fuel that you can put 60 years in --
Dialogue: 0,0:20:02.00,0:20:04.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,just think of it as a log --
Dialogue: 0,0:20:04.00,0:20:07.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,put it down and not have those same complexities.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:07.00,0:20:12.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it just sits there and burns for the 60 years, and then it's done.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:12.00,0:20:16.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: It's a nuclear power plant that is its own waste disposal solution.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:16.00,0:20:18.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,BG: Yeah. Well, what happens with the waste,
Dialogue: 0,0:20:18.00,0:20:23.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you can let it sit there -- there's a lot less waste under this approach --
Dialogue: 0,0:20:23.00,0:20:25.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then you can actually take that,
Dialogue: 0,0:20:25.00,0:20:28.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and put it into another one and burn that.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:28.00,0:20:32.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And we start off actually by taking the waste that exists today,
Dialogue: 0,0:20:32.00,0:20:36.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's sitting in these cooling pools or dry casking by reactors --
Dialogue: 0,0:20:36.00,0:20:38.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's our fuel to begin with.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:38.00,0:20:41.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, the thing that's been a problem from those reactors
Dialogue: 0,0:20:41.00,0:20:43.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is actually what gets fed into ours,
Dialogue: 0,0:20:43.00,0:20:46.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you're reducing the volume of the waste quite dramatically
Dialogue: 0,0:20:46.00,0:20:48.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as you're going through this process.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:48.00,0:20:50.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: I mean, you're talking to different people around the world
Dialogue: 0,0:20:50.00,0:20:52.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about the possibilities here.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:52.00,0:20:55.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Where is there most interest in actually doing something with this?
Dialogue: 0,0:20:55.00,0:20:58.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,BG: Well, we haven't picked a particular place,
Dialogue: 0,0:20:58.00,0:21:06.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and there's all these interesting disclosure rules about anything that's called "nuclear,"
Dialogue: 0,0:21:06.00,0:21:08.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so we've got a lot of interest,
Dialogue: 0,0:21:08.00,0:21:12.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that people from the company have been in Russia, India, China --
Dialogue: 0,0:21:12.00,0:21:14.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I've been back seeing the secretary of energy here,
Dialogue: 0,0:21:14.00,0:21:18.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,talking about how this fits into the energy agenda.
Dialogue: 0,0:21:18.00,0:21:21.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I'm optimistic. You know, the French and Japanese have done some work.
Dialogue: 0,0:21:21.00,0:21:25.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is a variant on something that has been done.
Dialogue: 0,0:21:25.00,0:21:29.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's an important advance, but it's like a fast reactor,
Dialogue: 0,0:21:29.00,0:21:31.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and a lot of countries have built them,
Dialogue: 0,0:21:31.00,0:21:36.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so anybody who's done a fast reactor is a candidate to be where the first one gets built.
Dialogue: 0,0:21:36.00,0:21:41.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: So, in your mind, timescale and likelihood
Dialogue: 0,0:21:41.00,0:21:44.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of actually taking something like this live?
Dialogue: 0,0:21:44.00,0:21:49.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,BG: Well, we need -- for one of these high-scale, electro-generation things
Dialogue: 0,0:21:49.00,0:21:51.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's very cheap,
Dialogue: 0,0:21:51.00,0:21:55.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we have 20 years to invent and then 20 years to deploy.
Dialogue: 0,0:21:55.00,0:22:00.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's sort of the deadline that the environmental models
Dialogue: 0,0:22:00.00,0:22:02.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,have shown us that we have to meet.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:02.00,0:22:07.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And, you know, TerraPower, if things go well -- which is wishing for a lot --
Dialogue: 0,0:22:07.00,0:22:09.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,could easily meet that.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:09.00,0:22:12.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And there are, fortunately now, dozens of companies --
Dialogue: 0,0:22:12.00,0:22:14.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we need it to be hundreds --
Dialogue: 0,0:22:14.00,0:22:16.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who, likewise, if their science goes well,
Dialogue: 0,0:22:16.00,0:22:19.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if the funding for their pilot plants goes well,
Dialogue: 0,0:22:19.00,0:22:21.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that they can compete for this.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:21.00,0:22:23.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it's best if multiple succeed,
Dialogue: 0,0:22:23.00,0:22:26.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because then you could use a mix of these things.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:26.00,0:22:28.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We certainly need one to succeed.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:28.00,0:22:31.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: In terms of big-scale possible game changes,
Dialogue: 0,0:22:31.00,0:22:34.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is this the biggest that you're aware of out there?
Dialogue: 0,0:22:34.00,0:22:38.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,BG: An energy breakthrough is the most important thing.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:38.00,0:22:40.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It would have been, even without the environmental constraint,
Dialogue: 0,0:22:40.00,0:22:45.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but the environmental constraint just makes it so much greater.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:45.00,0:22:48.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In the nuclear space, there are other innovators.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:48.00,0:22:51.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You know, we don't know their work as well as we know this one,
Dialogue: 0,0:22:51.00,0:22:54.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but the modular people, that's a different approach.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:54.00,0:22:58.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There's a liquid-type reactor, which seems a little hard,
Dialogue: 0,0:22:58.00,0:23:00.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but maybe they say that about us.
Dialogue: 0,0:23:00.00,0:23:03.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so, there are different ones,
Dialogue: 0,0:23:03.00,0:23:06.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but the beauty of this is a molecule of uranium
Dialogue: 0,0:23:06.00,0:23:10.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has a million times as much energy as a molecule of, say, coal,
Dialogue: 0,0:23:10.00,0:23:13.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and so -- if you can deal with the negatives,
Dialogue: 0,0:23:13.00,0:23:16.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which are essentially the radiation --
Dialogue: 0,0:23:16.00,0:23:19.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the footprint and cost, the potential,
Dialogue: 0,0:23:19.00,0:23:21.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in terms of effect on land and various things,
Dialogue: 0,0:23:21.00,0:23:25.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is almost in a class of its own.
Dialogue: 0,0:23:25.00,0:23:29.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: If this doesn't work, then what?
Dialogue: 0,0:23:29.00,0:23:33.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Do we have to start taking emergency measures
Dialogue: 0,0:23:33.00,0:23:36.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to try and keep the temperature of the earth stable?
Dialogue: 0,0:23:36.00,0:23:38.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,BG: If you get into that situation,
Dialogue: 0,0:23:38.00,0:23:43.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's like if you've been over-eating, and you're about to have a heart attack:
Dialogue: 0,0:23:43.00,0:23:47.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Then where do you go? You may need heart surgery or something.
Dialogue: 0,0:23:47.00,0:23:51.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There is a line of research on what's called geoengineering,
Dialogue: 0,0:23:51.00,0:23:54.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which are various techniques that would delay the heating
Dialogue: 0,0:23:54.00,0:23:57.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to buy us 20 or 30 years to get our act together.
Dialogue: 0,0:23:57.00,0:23:59.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, that's just an insurance policy.
Dialogue: 0,0:23:59.00,0:24:01.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You hope you don't need to do that.
Dialogue: 0,0:24:01.00,0:24:03.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Some people say you shouldn't even work on the insurance policy
Dialogue: 0,0:24:03.00,0:24:05.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because it might make you lazy,
Dialogue: 0,0:24:05.00,0:24:09.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that you'll keep eating because you know heart surgery will be there to save you.
Dialogue: 0,0:24:09.00,0:24:12.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm not sure that's wise, given the importance of the problem,
Dialogue: 0,0:24:12.00,0:24:16.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but there's now the geoengineering discussion
Dialogue: 0,0:24:16.00,0:24:20.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about -- should that be in the back pocket in case things happen faster,
Dialogue: 0,0:24:20.00,0:24:23.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or this innovation goes a lot slower than we expect?
Dialogue: 0,0:24:25.00,0:24:30.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: Climate skeptics: If you had a sentence or two to say to them,
Dialogue: 0,0:24:30.00,0:24:34.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how might you persuade them that they're wrong?
Dialogue: 0,0:24:35.00,0:24:39.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,BG: Well, unfortunately, the skeptics come in different camps.
Dialogue: 0,0:24:39.00,0:24:43.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The ones who make scientific arguments are very few.
Dialogue: 0,0:24:43.00,0:24:46.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Are they saying that there's negative feedback effects
Dialogue: 0,0:24:46.00,0:24:48.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that have to do with clouds that offset things?
Dialogue: 0,0:24:48.00,0:24:51.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There are very, very few things that they can even say
Dialogue: 0,0:24:51.00,0:24:54.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there's a chance in a million of those things.
Dialogue: 0,0:24:54.00,0:24:57.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The main problem we have here, it's kind of like AIDS.
Dialogue: 0,0:24:57.00,0:25:01.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You make the mistake now, and you pay for it a lot later.
Dialogue: 0,0:25:01.00,0:25:05.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so, when you have all sorts of urgent problems,
Dialogue: 0,0:25:05.00,0:25:08.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the idea of taking pain now that has to do with a gain later,
Dialogue: 0,0:25:08.00,0:25:11.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and a somewhat uncertain pain thing --
Dialogue: 0,0:25:11.00,0:25:17.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in fact, the IPCC report, that's not necessarily the worst case,
Dialogue: 0,0:25:17.00,0:25:19.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and there are people in the rich world who look at IPCC
Dialogue: 0,0:25:19.00,0:25:23.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and say, "OK, that isn't that big of a deal."
Dialogue: 0,0:25:23.00,0:25:27.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The fact is it's that uncertain part that should move us towards this.
Dialogue: 0,0:25:27.00,0:25:30.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But my dream here is that, if you can make it economic,
Dialogue: 0,0:25:30.00,0:25:32.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and meet the CO2 constraints,
Dialogue: 0,0:25:32.00,0:25:34.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then the skeptics say, "OK,
Dialogue: 0,0:25:34.00,0:25:36.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I don't care that it doesn't put out CO2,
Dialogue: 0,0:25:36.00,0:25:38.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I kind of wish it did put out CO2,
Dialogue: 0,0:25:38.00,0:25:42.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but I guess I'll accept it because it's cheaper than what's come before."
Dialogue: 0,0:25:42.00,0:25:46.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)
Dialogue: 0,0:25:46.00,0:25:50.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: And so, that would be your response to the Bjorn Lomborg argument,
Dialogue: 0,0:25:50.00,0:25:54.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that basically if you spend all this energy trying to solve the CO2 problem,
Dialogue: 0,0:25:54.00,0:25:56.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's going to take away all your other goals
Dialogue: 0,0:25:56.00,0:25:59.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of trying to rid the world of poverty and malaria and so forth,
Dialogue: 0,0:25:59.00,0:26:03.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's a stupid waste of the Earth's resources to put money towards that
Dialogue: 0,0:26:03.00,0:26:05.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when there are better things we can do.
Dialogue: 0,0:26:05.00,0:26:08.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,BG: Well, the actual spending on the R&D piece --
Dialogue: 0,0:26:08.00,0:26:12.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,say the U.S. should spend 10 billion a year more than it is right now --
Dialogue: 0,0:26:12.00,0:26:14.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's not that dramatic.
Dialogue: 0,0:26:14.00,0:26:16.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It shouldn't take away from other things.
Dialogue: 0,0:26:16.00,0:26:19.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The thing you get into big money on, and this, reasonable people can disagree,
Dialogue: 0,0:26:19.00,0:26:22.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is when you have something that's non-economic and you're trying to fund that --
Dialogue: 0,0:26:22.00,0:26:25.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that, to me, mostly is a waste.
Dialogue: 0,0:26:25.00,0:26:28.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Unless you're very close and you're just funding the learning curve
Dialogue: 0,0:26:28.00,0:26:30.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it's going to get very cheap,
Dialogue: 0,0:26:30.00,0:26:34.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I believe we should try more things that have a potential
Dialogue: 0,0:26:34.00,0:26:36.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to be far less expensive.
Dialogue: 0,0:26:36.00,0:26:41.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If the trade-off you get into is, "Let's make energy super expensive,"
Dialogue: 0,0:26:41.00,0:26:43.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then the rich can afford that.
Dialogue: 0,0:26:43.00,0:26:46.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I mean, all of us here could pay five times as much for our energy
Dialogue: 0,0:26:46.00,0:26:48.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and not change our lifestyle.
Dialogue: 0,0:26:48.00,0:26:50.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The disaster is for that two billion.
Dialogue: 0,0:26:50.00,0:26:52.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And even Lomborg has changed.
Dialogue: 0,0:26:52.00,0:26:57.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,His shtick now is, "Why isn't the R&D getting more discussed?"
Dialogue: 0,0:26:57.00,0:26:59.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He's still, because of his earlier stuff,
Dialogue: 0,0:26:59.00,0:27:01.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,still associated with the skeptic camp,
Dialogue: 0,0:27:01.00,0:27:04.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but he's realized that's a pretty lonely camp,
Dialogue: 0,0:27:04.00,0:27:07.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and so, he's making the R&D point.
Dialogue: 0,0:27:07.00,0:27:12.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so there is a thread of something that I think is appropriate.
Dialogue: 0,0:27:12.00,0:27:15.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The R&D piece, it's crazy how little it's funded.
Dialogue: 0,0:27:15.00,0:27:18.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: Well Bill, I suspect I speak on the behalf of most people here
Dialogue: 0,0:27:18.00,0:27:21.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to say I really hope your wish comes true. Thank you so much.
Dialogue: 0,0:27:21.00,0:27:23.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,BG: Thank you.
Dialogue: 0,0:27:23.00,0:27:26.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)