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KEN WEBSTER
一股财富或是财富的流量？

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在过去的七年里，
发展循环经济不知从何冒了出来。

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欧盟有着发展循环经济包装，

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世界经济论坛也正为之努力，

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各城市及政府也对之赋予厚望。

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最近在赫尔辛基举办的会议中，

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有着90个国家以及接近1700个代表

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在一连几天中看待着发展循环经济。

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这很令人感到兴奋。

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在学术界中，目前有着上百篇论文

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还有更多将会接踵而来。

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它进入了教育界，尤其是商业学和工程学内。

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我想问题是

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发展循环经济中的那一点
让它成为那么的有吸引力呢？

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我想我们需要回到经济学的基础。

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它问三个问题，真的。

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它问：要生产什么呢？如何生产？

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谁会从中受益？

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它不止有着三个问题，它有着三大要素。

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每个经济都有物质流动、能量流动

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以及信息流动--尤其是金钱。

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如果你读课本，它们有着一张，

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几乎是中央暖气系统的图片。

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它有着两个部分：

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家庭与公司，资本与劳工。

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金钱在两者间流动。

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工资被支付、物品被生产、收入回到公司。

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那相当地简单。

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还有，政府收税并出钱。

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再加上银行--

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它们是确保存款以投资的形式

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被有效地置入回经济中的中间人。

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它好比管道系统，而那是许多人对它的见解。

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再加上，从长远来看

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它有着一种将会处于均衡的感觉。

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在任何可能的世界中，
若经济正有效地运行，

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所有事物都将在其最佳状态。

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而那几乎是经济的故事：

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将它变得高效率、让它运行、

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只要你不插手，它将会自行解决。

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德·罗斯纳是个早期系统思维家。

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德·罗斯纳想要刻画

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目前的经济以及它所有的问题。

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而他辨认出的主要问题就是缺乏环境。

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这个经济运行的方式犹如

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被置放在货物以及资源和能源流动之上的机器。

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它只会触及它需触及的地方。

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我想表达的是它并没有被作为考虑的因素。

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实际上资源是无成本的。

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实际上耗损是无成本的。

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它是被人工标价的。

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所有东西都有其价格，

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但他们并不知道他想表达的是价值。

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所以他需要将经济至于环境中
并看看资源和材料流动。

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让我们停下并思考。

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约尔·德·罗斯纳提出了<i>The Macroscope</i>，

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主要的概念是去除细节。

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我们有个显微镜来关注细节，

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我们有个望远镜来观看远方。

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他的想法是若我们取个宏观镜，
若我们看大图，

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我们可察觉到经济中的模式

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同时不需要担心细节。

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那非常、非常地有帮助，


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因为如果经济的问题是它还未有环境，

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宏观镜允许你问：“经济处于哪个位置？”

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噢，它坐落于社会中，很明显地，

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它坐落于一个环境内。

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而这些所有东西都紧密地相互连接着。

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因为系统中有某部分不是机械的，

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它实际上是动态的、相互依赖的...

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它反映着我们目前对这真实世界如何操作的了解。

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这真实世界通过复杂的适应性系统概念来操作，

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意思就是一个你不能预测结果的动态系统，

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但是你将会得到很多模式。

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而你可以用这些模式来找出你想做的事。

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但它不会像一个有杠杆的机器的经济般给你一个答案。

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在复杂的适应性经济中并没有长远的均衡。

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它也许在这，也许在那，

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它也许有着很好的表现，也许有着很差的表现。

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但没有任何如果你有高效率，

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它就会有好表现的假设。

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这对德·罗斯纳来说会是个极其幼稚的看法。

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而那一直都是经济学者面临的大挑战。

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对一些来说，这是一个从机械性看法

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转化成更有启发性的复杂经济观的旅途。

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但是经济的普遍看法仍是

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一个处理资源、创造经济增长的机器。

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我们在另一端有着这些问题是一大羞耻，

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而我们也许会面临资源短缺也是一大羞耻。

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但若你将它看成是一个复杂的适应性系统，

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你可以在这些模式与循环之中工作。

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目前存在的经济注重的是生产量。

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你可以去得多远？
你是个赢家。

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而一个复杂的适应性系统会说：

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“那有个物品，那有个流动，那有个反馈。”

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如果它将是长期地工作，

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这三个要素必须要以一个相互依赖的方式继续工作。

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而你能如何在那样的经济中做事

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那是个完全不一样的问题。

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你参与其中，你影响它，

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但是你并没有控制它。

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303
00:17:00,167 --> 00:17:04,179


304
00:17:04,179 --> 00:17:07,168


305
00:17:07,168 --> 00:17:10,470


306
00:17:10,470 --> 00:17:12,688


307
00:17:12,688 --> 00:17:16,187


308
00:17:16,187 --> 00:17:19,168


309
00:17:19,168 --> 00:17:21,118


310
00:17:24,532 --> 00:17:29,049


311
00:17:29,049 --> 00:17:33,558


312
00:17:33,558 --> 00:17:37,138


313
00:17:37,138 --> 00:17:41,548


314
00:17:41,548 --> 00:17:44,357


315
00:17:44,357 --> 00:17:45,937


316
00:17:45,937 --> 00:17:47,517


317
00:17:47,517 --> 00:17:50,024


318
00:17:50,024 --> 00:17:52,912


319
00:17:52,912 --> 00:17:57,683


320
00:17:57,683 --> 00:17:59,287


321
00:18:03,997 --> 00:18:07,928


322
00:18:07,928 --> 00:18:09,692


323
00:18:09,692 --> 00:18:11,857


324
00:18:11,857 --> 00:18:13,419


325
00:18:13,419 --> 00:18:16,210


326
00:18:16,210 --> 00:18:18,910


327
00:18:18,910 --> 00:18:20,899


328
00:18:24,860 --> 00:18:29,001


329
00:18:29,001 --> 00:18:31,919


330
00:18:36,744 --> 00:18:40,249


331
00:18:40,249 --> 00:18:42,531


332
00:18:42,531 --> 00:18:47,427


333
00:18:47,427 --> 00:18:49,021


334
00:18:49,531 --> 00:18:50,933
原材料

335
00:18:50,933 --> 00:18:52,209
能源

336
00:18:52,209 --> 00:18:53,206
工厂

337
00:18:53,206 --> 00:18:56,047


338
00:18:56,827 --> 00:18:58,448


339
00:18:58,458 --> 00:19:01,108


340
00:19:01,108 --> 00:19:04,759


341
00:19:04,759 --> 00:19:06,317
我们如何生产它？

342
00:19:06,317 --> 00:19:08,330
而谁会从中获益？

343
00:19:08,330 --> 00:19:11,488
你不能只问：“你是如何生产它？”的方式

344
00:19:11,488 --> 00:19:14,207
来回答该经济问题。

345
00:19:18,546 --> 00:19:20,478
ELLEN MACARTHUR FOUNDATION

346
00:19:20,478 --> 00:19:25,007
www.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org

347
00:19:26,537 --> 00:19:30,448
由路易斯·赫德森拍摄
www.louiswilliamhudson.com